中信证券 2025 年春季策略：核心资产的春天 摘要 Q&A 您对中国核心资产的看法是什么？为什么认为它们具有投资价值？ 我们非常看好中国的新核心资产接力。前一段时间市场经历了极致高波动的板 块行情，但我们认为最近的市场高切低模式与过去一两年有根本性不同。投资 者开始抛弃杠铃结构，转向持续进攻和持有，体现出更积极的心态。信心修复 目前局限于科技领域，但未来会扩散到经济领域，这是时间问题。我们对两会 在供给侧和促消费方面保持期待。 从风格上看，核心资产是关注重心。A 股市 场若要走出类似港股市场的指数化行情，需要龙头核心资产走出盈利和估值空 间。这包括新赛道萌芽及传统核心资产中的经营拐点公司。目前大约 30%的传 • 市场策略转变：机构投资者逐步放弃杠铃策略，转向持续进攻和持有，显 示出对市场更为积极的态度，信心修复正从科技领域向经济领域扩散。 • 核心资产配置：核心资产是关注重点，A 股市场若要走出指数化行情，需 要龙头核心资产实现盈利和估值双重提升，包括新赛道萌芽及传统核心资 产中的经营拐点公司，目前约 30%的传统核心资产公司已走出经营拐点。 • 港股估值优势：港股市场仍处于早期阶段，互联网龙头、半导体 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [1][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong sales in the new energy vehicle sector, with significant year-on-year growth in sales figures for major companies like BYD and Xpeng [1][18]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see increased demand due to market reforms in electricity pricing, leading to potential price increases in the short term [1][18]. - The wind power sector is projected to recover profitability as domestic and overseas demand remains robust, supported by ongoing project tenders and construction [1][18]. - The solid-state battery technology is anticipated to achieve mass production by 2027, benefiting companies involved in battery materials and equipment [1][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the hydrogen energy sector, with policies promoting its industrial development and applications in various fields [1][18]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - February sales figures show BYD at 323,000 units (up 164% YoY), Xpeng at 30,500 units (up 570% YoY), and Li Auto at 26,300 units (up 29.7% YoY) [1][18]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology projects a total lithium battery production of 1,170 GWh in 2024, a 24% increase YoY [1][18]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The National Energy Administration aims for over 200 million kW of new renewable energy generation capacity by 2025 [1][18]. - The report notes a rise in domestic photovoltaic module prices due to increased production and demand [1][18]. - CPIA forecasts global photovoltaic installations to reach 531-583 GW in 2025, reflecting a 0%-10% growth [1][18]. Hydrogen Energy - The European Commission has introduced a Clean Industrial Deal, positioning clean hydrogen as a key pillar for energy sovereignty, with plans to raise €100 billion for industrial decarbonization [1][18]. Company Performance - JinkoSolar expects a net profit of -1.012 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 114.66% YoY [1][20]. - Trina Solar anticipates a net profit of -3.455 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 162.46% YoY [1][20]. - Other companies like GCL-Poly and LONGi Green Energy also report significant declines in net profits for 2024 [1][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses historical investment patterns in the Chinese stock market, highlighting how certain stocks, despite strong initial performance and logical reasoning, often fail to sustain their growth in the long term, leading to significant declines during market downturns [4][6][10]. Group 1: Historical Examples - The case of Sichuan Changhong in the 1990s illustrates how a stock can be perceived as a blue-chip due to the rising demand for televisions, yet it ultimately underperformed during subsequent market downturns [3][4]. - In 2007, the belief in China's infrastructure growth led to optimism for stocks like Baosteel and Jidong Cement, but these stocks also failed to maintain their highs in the long run [5][6]. Group 2: Market Behavior Patterns - The article outlines a cyclical pattern where an industry experiences a boom, followed by a significant downturn, leading to prolonged periods of low performance for stocks within that sector [10][12]. - Stocks that do not adapt to new market conditions or fail to capitalize on emerging trends often remain in a state of wide fluctuations without reaching new highs [13][14]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The rise and fall of stocks like China CRRC and Longi Green Energy exemplify how initial strong performance can lead to severe declines when market conditions change, such as overcapacity in the industry [8][9]. - The healthcare sector, despite being viewed as a growth area due to aging demographics, has also seen stocks underperform, indicating that not all perceived growth sectors guarantee long-term success [11]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that rather than focusing on historically burdened indices, investors may find better opportunities in emerging sectors like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which may offer more potential for growth [15].