9号当天，日本首相石破茂在一场街头演讲中，谈及美国对日本加征关税一事，直言强调，"这是一场关乎国家利益的战斗，我们决不能被小瞧"。即便美国 是日本的盟友，在关税谈判中，日本政府也必须理直气壮的表明自身立场，守护日本必须守护的东西。从石破茂的这番讲话就不难看出，日本方面显然没有 在关税谈判上让步的意思。 为什么石破茂敢这样跟特朗普政府硬刚呢？简单分析来看，主要有两点：首先，特朗普所要的东西太多，并且直接关乎日本的经济命脉，石破茂政府很难做 出让步。比如，特朗普政府想要日本在汽车出口和农业上做出让步，这一点石破茂政府就很难办到。目前，汽车产业是日本经济的主要支撑产业，如果石破 茂政府任由美国在汽车上加征关税，那对于日本来说，受影响的绝不止汽车这一个行业。另外，农业更是日本执政党的基本盘，这关乎到石破茂政府的政权 稳定，他就更不可能在这件事上让步了。要知道，本月20号，日本就将进行参议院选举，若石破茂向美国让步，他的首相位置很可能保不住。 面对特朗普的关税威胁，日本还有2张"王牌"可打，这2张"王牌"是什么？特朗普急于对贸易伙伴加征关税，这背后又说明了什么？ 近日，特朗普对他的关税政策进行一番调整，主要包括三个方面 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is concerned about the potential impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation. Although the current US inflation level remains low due to relatively low energy prices and weak domestic consumer confidence, the situation will become more variable if the tariff factor continues to affect the market in the future. Additionally, while there are differences among Fed officials regarding the future interest rate path, a rate cut is still a high-probability event. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The current silver price is strong, and the gold-silver ratio has been repaired. There is also a spill - over effect on the Comex silver price after Trump's claim to impose additional tariffs on copper. For now, it is also recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Policy - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed on Russia, and secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries that buy Russian oil. Brazil will announce a reciprocal countermeasure decree against US tariffs, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods. After Trump's latest trade tax threat, the European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week than expected in June [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.62 yuan/gram and closed at 781.40 yuan/gram, a change of 1.01% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 778.04 yuan/gram, down 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,118.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,207.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.85% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,093,005 lots, and the open interest was 448,095 lots. The night - session closed at 9,167 yuan/kg, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields - On July 14, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.43%, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.53%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by - 3,450 lots and the short position changed by - 1,439 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,985 lots, a change of 9.26% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 1,147 lots and the short position changed by - 4,863 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,568,465 lots, a change of 141.85% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 tons compared to the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 14,966.24 tons compared to the previous day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 3.01 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 1,003.49 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.87, a change of - 1.31% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.96, a change of - 1.54% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 38,158 kg, a change of 24.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,017,134 kg, a change of 94.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,968 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 56,610 kg [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: Suspended [6] Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a volatile downward trend, mainly due to the widening spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in non-US market copper prices. Domestic copper prices are temporarily suppressed, and domestic social inventories have increased. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 14, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,040 yuan/ton and closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 77,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was stable. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 78,370 - 78,540 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The market supply was sufficient, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery was average. It is expected that today's quotes will remain firm [2]. - **Important Information Summary**: - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia-Ukraine conflict agreement is not reached within 50 days, and also impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Brazil will announce counter - tariff measures against the US, and the EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. The European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week [3]. - **Mine End**: Rio Tinto is optimistic about the US government's push for domestic key mineral production and hopes to increase investment in US copper mining. Mercuria Energy Group and a Zambian state - owned company will ship copper ore for the first time. In Peru, protests by informal miners may affect the production of two major copper mines [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: As of the week of July 8, the net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds continued to increase to 39,604 lots. The US tariff policy on imported copper led to a sharp rise in US copper prices and increased fund bulls' confidence [3]. - **Consumption**: - **Copper Rod Enterprises**: The operating rate last week rebounded to 67%, but was still lower than expected. It is expected to rise to 74.57% next week, but the actual resumption progress may be less than expected [4]. - **Copper Cable Industry**: The operating rate reached 71.52%, an unexpected rebound. However, due to terminal capital pressure, it is expected to fall to 70.57% next week [4][5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 625 tons to 109,625 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 11,072 tons to 34,379 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on July 14 was 14.76 million tons, changing by 0.39 million tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to take a neutral stance and wait - and - see. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to suspend operations [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, the refined nickel market is in a supply - surplus situation, with the short - term upward momentum weakening. The recommended strategy is to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices. The estimated price range is between 117,000 - 118,000 and 122,000 - 123,000 [1][2] - For the stainless steel market, the market confidence is insufficient, and the nickel - iron price is expected to be weak in the short term. The recommended strategy is similar to that of nickel, with an estimated price range between 124,000 - 125,000 and 130,000 - 131,000 [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2508 opened at 120,960 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,732 lots, and the open interest was 59,940 lots. The trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day. The short - term callback demand exists, and the 117,000 level is a strong support in the medium - to - long term. The spot market prices of mainstream brands decreased, and the premium of refined nickel decreased but remained at a high level, providing support for the futures price [1] - The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,296 (854.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 206,580 (402) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed. The long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the price range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000. Unilateral trading should be range - bound, and there are no recommendations for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,745 yuan/ton and closed at 12,715 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,687 lots, and the open interest was 66,494 lots. The trading volume and open interest decreased significantly compared to the previous day due to partial position shifting. The pressure levels are around 12,700 and 13,100, and the 12,400 level is a strong support in the medium - to - long term. The spot market prices in the morning were mostly flat, and increased by 50 yuan/ton in the afternoon, but the trading volume did not improve, and market confidence was still insufficient. The nickel - iron price is expected to be weak in the short term [2] Strategy - Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed. The long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. The estimated upper limit of the price range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500. Unilateral trading is neutral, and there are no recommendations for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall volatility of the non - ferrous sector has led to a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The terminal demand for electric vehicle and automotive batteries remains weak, with slow inventory digestion by dealers, resulting in insufficient new orders for production enterprises. Some manufacturers choose to temporarily halt or reduce production to relieve inventory pressure. The upcoming 15% - 20% new tariff policy in the US poses greater challenges to the industry's exports [1][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.62 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan per ton to 16,875 yuan per ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to -20.00 yuan per ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by -50 yuan per ton to 16,925 yuan per ton, SMM Henan lead changed by -50 yuan per ton to 16,875 yuan per ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -75 yuan per ton to 16,925 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,275 yuan per ton, while the prices of waste white shells and black shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan per ton and 10,575 yuan per ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,055 yuan per ton and closed at 17,085 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 31,556 lots, a decrease of 20,905 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 52,444 lots, a decrease of 1,035 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,130 yuan per ton and a low of 17,020 yuan per ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,060 yuan per ton and closed at 17,035 yuan per ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, the discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and there was more queuing for pick - up due to reduced supply from smelters. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 10 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and small factories' lead could be quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton. In Jiangxi, smelters' inventory decreased, and quotes were firm, at a premium of 120 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead price. The spot market trading was weaker in the south and stronger in the north [2] Inventory - On July 14, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous week. As of July 14, the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy is cautiously bullish. The starting - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces dropped to 70.76% in the first week of July, a 1.07 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The option strategy is to sell put options [4]

Group 1 - The core demand of Trump's tariff war is to exert pressure on trading partners like the EU, Japan, South Korea, and India, pushing them to comply without room for negotiation [1][3] - Starting August 1, Trump announced a 30% tariff on all goods from the EU and Mexico, marking the beginning of a second round of tariff pressure [3] - The automotive industry in Europe is facing significant losses, with the steel and aluminum tariffs costing manufacturers millions of euros daily [3] Group 2 - Brazil is one of the most affected countries, facing a 50% tariff penalty, leading to concerns about potential economic sanctions and trade blockades from the US [5] - The urgency behind increasing tariffs is linked to the need for fiscal revenue, with US tariff income surpassing $100 billion in 2024, which is insufficient compared to the funding needs of Trump's economic plans [7] - The US Treasury market is experiencing instability, with a decline in foreign buyers, prompting Trump to use tariffs as a means to compel other countries to purchase US debt [7] Group 3 - The EU's response to Trump's tariffs has been mixed, with internal disagreements on how to retaliate, reflecting the varying interests of member states [8][9] - Despite threats of countermeasures, the EU is struggling with economic slowdown and lacks a unified approach to address Trump's tariffs [9] - The global trade order is being disrupted, with China leveraging its influence to establish new trade norms, potentially marginalizing the US in future global supply chains [9][11] Group 4 - Trump's tariff policies are fundamentally altering the dollar-based trade system, leading to a reconstruction of global supply chains that may exclude the US [11] - Industries in affected countries are adapting by shifting focus to new markets, such as Italian wine producers looking towards Singapore and South Korean battery manufacturers relocating to Hungary [11] - The urgency for reform within the EU is highlighted by warnings from industry leaders about the need for survival amidst declining competitiveness [11]

Group 1: International Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. has announced a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, with a potential 15% or 20% "uniform tariff" for countries that have not received tariff notices [4] - South Korea plans to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese petroleum resins [4] - The EU has extended the suspension period for counter-tariffs against the U.S. until early August, raising questions from the European Parliament's International Trade Committee [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Singapore's GDP grew by 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, surpassing the forecast of 3.6% [4] - Japan's 20-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 2000 [4] - China's foreign trade showed a 7.2% increase in exports in the first half of the year, with a significant narrowing of the decline in exports to the U.S. in June [4][4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Financial Markets - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to enhance financial services for the real economy [4] - The M2 balance in China grew by 8.3% year-on-year by the end of June, with new RMB loans totaling 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in July with a 93.3% probability [4]

消息传来，日本政坛震动。次日清晨，石破茂首相紧急召开关于美国关税措施的综合对策总部会议。25%的税率绝非儿戏，若如期实施，日本出口支柱 产业如汽车、电子将遭遇重创。池川阳介警告，这将对日本经济造成"严重影响"，绝非危言耸听。 石破茂（资料图） 据环球网消息，2025年7月7日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体投下重磅炸弹：他已致函日本首相石破茂，宣布将于8月1日起对日本商品征收25%关税。这 并非孤立行动，韩国等14国同时被列入加税名单，其中缅甸和老挝商品税率更是高达40%。 白宫新闻秘书莱维特暗示更多关税信件正在路上。特朗普不忘威胁：若日本反击提高关税，美国将立即在25%基础上再追加同等幅度关税。尽管他留有 余地称若日本"开放市场"可能改变决定，但日本广播协会评论员池川阳介直言形势"极其严峻"，日本政府的强烈反对似乎毫无作用。 日本外相岩屋毅（资料图） 特朗普（资料图） 特朗普的关税政策以其标志性的强硬与不可预测性著称。他公开信件、威胁追加关税，却又留出"谈判"活口，本质上是以国家经济为筹码施压日本在双 边谈判中作出更大让步。这种极限施压战术，迫使日本政府不得不在两条战线同时作战：既要紧急评估25%关税对汽车、电子 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi marks the first face-to-face dialogue between the two countries since Trump's return to the White House, highlighting the need for communication amidst rising tensions [1][3] - Rubio's visit is overshadowed by the announcement of high tariffs (25%-40%) on eight ASEAN countries and traditional allies like Japan and South Korea, which has led to regional leaders expressing concerns about the economic implications [1][5] - The U.S. is facing strategic pressures, including the impending expiration of a 90-day trade truce and the need to address the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has prompted Rubio to seek dialogue with China [3][6] Group 2 - Wang Yi emphasized the importance of grounding U.S.-China relations in mutual respect and cooperation, proposing a three-pronged approach: objective understanding of China, win-win policy formulation, and equal respect in interactions [3][6] - The regional response to U.S. tariffs has been one of caution, with countries like Malaysia and Japan reassessing their economic dependencies and security strategies in light of the U.S. trade policies [5][6] - The meeting, described as "positive, pragmatic, and constructive," has restarted high-level dialogues that had been stagnant for six months, indicating a potential shift in U.S.-China relations despite ongoing trade tensions [8]

Export Performance - In June, China's export growth showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, surpassing the expected 3.21% and the five-year average of 4.14% by 1.66 percentage points[8] - The marginal improvement in exports to the US was significant, with a year-on-year growth rate of -16.3%, an increase of 18.39 percentage points from the previous value[10] - Exports to ASEAN countries also improved, with a growth rate of 16.74%, up 5.31 percentage points from the previous value[11] Import Performance - June imports increased by 1.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and the previous value by 4.5 percentage points[19] - The improvement in imports was primarily driven by increased imports from Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN, with positive contributions from these regions[22] Future Outlook - The extension of the US tariff exemption until August 1 may limit the recovery of China's export growth to the US in the second half of the year, creating downward pressure on exports[26] - If the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September, it could lead to a structural market rally in July, despite potential export slowdowns[28] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the effectiveness of policies remain key risks that could impact market stability[29]