Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The HC2510 contract fluctuated on Monday. The overall hot - rolled coil production remains high, terminal demand is resilient, but the cost support weakens as coal and coke prices decline in the late trading. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downwards with shrinking red bars. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,123 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the position volume is 1,525,709 lots, up 999 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 78,901 lots, down 7,318 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the HC daily warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 67,543 tons, down 1,192 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The HC main contract basis is 107 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 713 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 73.81 million tons, down 7.31 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 627.51 million tons, down 6.50 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.85%, up 0.04%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 327.24 million tons, up 1.79 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 83.59%, up 0.45%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 78.22 million tons, up 1.70 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 262.94 million tons, down 0.71 million tons. The domestic crude steel production is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons; the steel net export volume is 1,010 million tons, up 16 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 2.6485 million vehicles, up 0.0298 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales is 2.6863 million vehicles, up 0.0967 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner output is 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 8.51 million units, up 0.331 million units; the monthly household washing machine output is 9.412 million units, down 0.239 million units. Last week, the number of steel mill maintenance and复产 production lines increased compared with the previous week. 9 provinces had steel mills with production line maintenance, with 9 maintenance lines (2 more than the previous week) and 8复产 lines (3 more than the previous week). The production affected by production line maintenance is estimated to be 18.03 million tons this week [2]. Industry News - China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests in exchange for so - called tariff reductions. Canada will impose a 50% tariff on steel products imported from countries without a free - trade agreement with Ottawa that exceed the quota [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting on rebounds for both steel products and raw materials [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - Last week, steel products rebounded with little change in weekly fundamentals, showing a pattern of stronger supply and weaker demand. The recent strong performance of upstream raw materials has boosted steel products, but the hot and rainy weather still has a negative impact on building material demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Product Production and Utilization - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 54.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.13 percentage points [3] - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [3] - The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week [3] - The daily average pig iron output was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons [3] Downstream Appliance Production - In July, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 15.8 million units, a 1.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [3] - The refrigerator production schedule was 7.35 million units, a 2.4% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [3] - The washing machine production schedule was 6.445 million units, a 4.2% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [3] Steel Product Market Situation - Last week, steel products rebounded with little change in weekly fundamentals. The inventory of the five major steel products slightly accumulated, production increased, and demand slightly decreased, still showing a pattern of stronger supply and weaker demand [3]

Economic Growth Dynamics - The fundamental driver of economic growth is the dynamic balance between investment and consumption, where investment creates new supply and consumption represents demand[1] - GDP can be divided into capital income and non-capital income, with capital income being concentrated among a few individuals, leading to a low marginal propensity to consume[1] Investment Efficiency Decline - Since the 2009 financial crisis, China's capital-output ratio (K/GDP) has continuously increased, indicating that capital stock growth has outpaced GDP growth, resulting in declining investment efficiency[3] - From 2010 to 2020, China's capital income share remained relatively stable, while capital return rates (r) have been decreasing, indicating a negative correlation between K/GDP and r[3][4] Structural Challenges and Solutions - The current structural dilemma arises from declining investment efficiency and insufficient consumption demand, necessitating a shift from "heavy investment, light consumption" to activating domestic consumption, particularly in services[4] - A significant portion (70%) of fixed asset investment is related to construction and installation, while service consumption among residents remains notably low, contributing to capital idleness[4][5] Sustainable Growth Path - To achieve sustainable growth and avoid the "efficiency cliff," the growth engine must transition from a single "investment-driven" model to a dual "consumption-led, investment-responsive" model[4] - The investment evaluation system should incorporate "capital stock/GDP" and "capacity utilization" as core efficiency indicators to avoid ineffective capital accumulation[4] Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with model failure, tail risks, and uncertainties in domestic policy execution that could impact the effectiveness of proposed strategies[4][5]

Group 1 - Shandong Agricultural University Fertilizer Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Agricultural Technology") has completed the first round of inquiry letter responses, addressing 11 questions related to "business and technology," "reasonableness of performance changes," "reasonableness of large inventory," and "use of raised funds" [2] - Agricultural Technology's production capacity utilization rates for 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 65.14%, 68.72%, and 56.63%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year decline of 17.59% in 2024 [5] - The company plans to raise 552 million yuan through its IPO, which will be used for various projects, including a 300,000-ton annual production project for humic acid intelligent high tower compound fertilizer and a 150,000-ton annual production line for biological fertilizers [4] Group 2 - Agricultural Technology's main products include humic acid-enhanced fertilizers, controlled-release fertilizers, and water-soluble fertilizers, with its coated urea production and sales ranking first in the industry and humic acid compound fertilizers ranking second [4] - The inquiry letter highlights concerns regarding the reasonableness of Agricultural Technology's fundraising for capacity expansion, given its insufficient capacity utilization [2][5] - The overall fertilizer industry has experienced significant idle capacity, with average capacity utilization rates for listed companies in the sector being 47.07%, 52.78%, and 46.50% from 2022 to 2024 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics [2]. Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The current price of London gold has decreased by 1.91% compared to last week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early June 2025, the average daily output of key enterprises in crude steel is 2.159 million tons, an increase of 3.25% month-on-month [4] - Price changes this week include rebar at +0.00%, cement price index at -1.21%, rubber at +0.72%, coke at +0.00%, coking coal at -3.11%, and iron ore at -2.07% [4] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates have changed by +0.21 percentage points, -5.90 percentage points, -1.8 percentage points, and +4.24 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass have changed by -1.45% and +0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -921 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of flat glass this week is 75.34% [5] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high of 78.29%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices this week include cold-rolled steel at -0.27%, copper at -0.76%, and aluminum at -0.29%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +4.07%, -18.19%, and +4.71% [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina in May has dropped to a new low for 2023 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 5.56% [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,700 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with estimated profit at 3,146 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 4.71% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.19 [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 170 yuan/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 210 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [8] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [8] Export Chain - In May 2025, China's PMI new export orders are at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index this week is 1,342.46 points, up 8.00% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 79.40%, down 0.10 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.45%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being shipping at +1.06% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel and industrial metals sectors relative to the CSI 300 is 32.05% and 62.94% respectively [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to the recent geopolitical factors in the Middle East causing an increase in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the rise in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually increasing. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are generally increasing. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end - users' resistance to high prices is obvious. It is expected that the production and sales pressure will be difficult to ease. - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling has gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to be basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. - With the cease - fire between Israel and Palestine and the decline in crude oil prices, the br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,700 - 11,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,230 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 345 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract position was 10,317, a decrease of 557. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,750 yuan/ton, and that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,700 yuan/ton, and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,750 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 245 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 71.48 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.53 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan was 470 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.5 US dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 840 US dollars/ton, and the CFR China price of butadiene was 1,100 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. WTI crude oil was 68.51 US dollars/barrel [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.06%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 28,400 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 44.95%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.79 million tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 66.32%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 1,163 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 700 tons, and the trader's inventory increased by 610 tons to 6,820 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.29%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 65.48%, an increase of 4.24 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1,182 million pieces, a decrease of 126 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 5,415 million pieces, a decrease of 124 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. - In May 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].

2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业研究 5 月国内氧化铝产能利用率降至 2023 年以来新低 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.6.16-6.22） 要点 流动性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点。（1）BCI 中小 企业融资环境指数 2025 年 5 月值为 49.09，环比上月+2.20%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点，环比+0.9 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格环比上 周-1.91%。 基建和地产链条：6 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+3.25%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹+0.00%、水泥价格指数-1.21%、橡胶+0.72%、焦炭 +0.00%、焦煤-3.11%、铁矿-2.07%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别+0.21pct、-5.90pct、-1.8pct、 +4.24pct；（3）2025 年 6 月上旬，重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量为 215.90 万吨。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are generally increasing. Affected by cost factors, supply prices may remain firm, but downstream terminals clearly resist high prices. It is expected that the production and sales pressure will be difficult to ease. In the short - term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to be basically stable, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent. The r2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,650 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 10,874, a decrease of 2,322; the synthetic rubber 7 - 8 spread is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber are 800 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies (Qilu, Daqing, Maoming, etc.) has decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 77.01 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.84 dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 646.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.62 dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 840 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,100 dollars/ton, an increase of 30 dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 73.84 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.76 dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.06%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 28,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 44.95%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.94 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.32%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 587 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,163 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,950 tons, a decrease of 700 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,820 tons, an increase of 610 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,182,000 pieces, a decrease of 126,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,415,000 pieces, a decrease of 124,000 pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days [2] Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Nengzhiguang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. successfully passed the IPO review at the Beijing Stock Exchange, despite controversies surrounding its past regulatory issues and the foreign nationality of its actual controller's family [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue showed steady growth from 2022 to 2024, with figures of 556 million, 569 million, and 611 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5.10%, 2.34%, and 7.38% respectively [1]. - Net profit figures for the same period were 21.86 million, 49.81 million, and 55.94 million yuan, with growth rates of -9.45%, +127.80%, and +12.31% respectively, indicating a significant profit increase in 2023 despite modest revenue growth [2][3]. - The company's gross profit margin improved from 12.03% in 2022 to 16.85% in 2023, contributing to the remarkable net profit growth [2]. R&D and Innovation - The company has faced challenges in its R&D projects, with some projects regressing from pilot to small-scale testing stages between 2024 and 2025 [3]. - R&D investment as a percentage of revenue was low, at 1.86%, 1.92%, and 2.16% from 2022 to 2024, which is below the industry average and the threshold for high-tech enterprises [5][6]. - Direct R&D expenses have also decreased, raising concerns about the company's innovation capabilities [5]. Production Capacity - The company's production capacity has not exceeded 50,000 tons during the reporting period, with the Ningbo plant at 30,000 tons and the Ganzhou plant below 20,000 tons [8]. - There is a discrepancy regarding the company's reported production capacity, with claims of over 90,000 tons on its website, leading to confusion about its actual capacity [10]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity by an additional 30,000 tons through a new project, but faces challenges in effectively utilizing this increased capacity given the current underutilization rates [12]. Financial Management - The company has a low debt ratio of 17.25% and generated a net cash flow of 68.91 million yuan from operating activities in 2024, indicating a strong financial position [12]. - Despite having cash reserves, the company plans to raise funds for working capital, which raises concerns about its financial strategy and investor treatment [13].

瑞达期货研究院 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「2025.06.20」 热轧卷板市场周报 终端需求好于预期 热卷期价震荡偏强 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至6月20日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3116（+34），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3220（+30）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：热卷产量小幅提升。325.45（+0.8）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：终端需求韧性较强，表观需求回升。本期表需330.69（+10.81），（同比+11.75）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库与社库同步下滑。总库存340.17（-5.24），（同比-75.44）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周增加0.87个百分点，同比去年增加7.36个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外， （1）以伊冲突不断升级加剧了人们对发生更广泛冲突的担忧，眼下全 ...