1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is cautiously bullish [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. Anti-involution policies still hold potential, offering strong support at the lower end. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, the year-on-year figure remains strong. It's normal for demand to dip slightly in the off-season. The warming sentiment for winter storage may stimulate a wave of demand. In terms of cost, the strength of coking coal and coke, along with the sharp rise in iron ore prices, provide strong cost support. Despite the relatively high total inventory exerting some pressure, the hot-rolled coil market first saw a significant upward breakthrough, followed by two days of adjustment, then stabilized and strengthened near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Price**: On Monday, the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased its open interest by 10,408 lots and had a trading volume of 408,729 lots, which was a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,289 yuan, and the high was 3,320 yuan. It showed a bullish trend with increased open interest during the day, standing above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It closed at 3,311 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.55% [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -21 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [2]. 基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **Supply**: As of January 8, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it rose by 16,200 tons. Production has been rising for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mills' hot metal from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance. The subsequent upward momentum needs to be monitored [3]. - **Demand**: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand declined slightly, but year-on-year, it rose by 72,500 tons, indicating that demand still has resilience [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons on a weekly basis (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, and the inventory still exerts pressure on prices [3]. - **Policy**: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involution competition has been listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4]. 市场驱动因素分析 (Market Driving Factor Analysis) - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [5].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1%, marking a "17 consecutive days of gains," while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.75% and the ChiNext Index by 1.82% [1] - The total market turnover reached 3.64 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record, surpassing the previous high of 3.45 trillion yuan on October 8, 2024 [1][4] - More than 4,100 stocks experienced price increases during this trading session [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace and AI application sectors led the market, with brain-computer interface concepts also seeing significant gains [1] - Sectors such as computing hardware, insurance, and oil and gas experienced the largest declines [1] Investor Sentiment - A veteran investor noted the unprecedented heat in the A-share market, highlighting that there has been no significant pullback [4] - In the first hour of trading on January 12, the total turnover approached 1.7 trillion yuan, with half-day turnover exceeding 2.31 trillion yuan, indicating strong capital inflow [4] Economic Outlook - The chief economist at AVIC Securities suggested that the spring market rally may have entered a major upward phase, supported by improvements in the fundamental and policy environment [7] - Recent domestic inflation data showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in CPI, the highest since March 2023, indicating a positive trend in economic conditions [7] - The "anti-involution" policy aligns with market concerns and is expected to have a more pronounced effect on industries under profit pressure [7] Investment Strategy - The economist recommended a balanced allocation in sectors with marginal catalysts and advised monitoring industries with improving fundamentals that have lagged in the current rally for potential investment opportunities [7]

Group 1: Electronic Yarn - The price of electronic yarn has increased, with G75 average price in China maintaining at 9377 yuan/ton, a nearly 1% increase month-on-month and an 11.31% increase year-on-year, driven by tight supply-demand dynamics in mid-to-high-end products [1] - The demand for high-end PCB is expected to support further price increases in the future [1] - Companies to watch include China Jushi (600176.SH) and China National Materials (002080.SZ) [1] Group 2: Cement Industry - The national cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with overall demand showing a downward trend, particularly in the housing market, while infrastructure demand is regionally differentiated [2] - Mid-term capacity in the cement industry is expected to decline under production restriction policies, leading to increased capacity utilization and profit elasticity [2] - Companies to focus on include Conch Cement (600585.SH) and Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) [2] Group 3: Glass Industry - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand due to the impact of real estate, with traditional peak season orders under pressure and high inventory levels among intermediaries [2] - Despite some production lines undergoing maintenance, the overall supply-demand pressure remains, and prices are expected to stay low in the short term [2] - Flagship companies to monitor include Qibin Group (601636.SH) [2] Group 4: Glass Fiber Industry - Demand in the glass fiber sector is stable in wind power and thermoplastic fields, while traditional demand is slowing down [2] - The electronic yarn segment is performing well, driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for significant growth in low-dielectric products [2] - Companies to watch include China Jushi and China National Materials [2] Group 5: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price space due to years of competition [3] - The industry is strongly advocating for price increases and profit improvements, with multiple categories like waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards expected to issue price increase notices [3] - Companies to focus on include Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ), Sankeshu (603737.SH), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), and Tubao (002043.SZ) [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the electronic yarn prices have increased, with the average price of domestic G75 remaining at 9377 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of nearly 1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.31%. This price increase is supported by the growing demand in the high-end PCB sector, indicating further price increase expectations [3][4] - The cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with overall demand showing a downward trend. The construction market remains weak, but there is a rigid demand in the civil market. The report anticipates that cement production capacity will continue to decline under policies limiting overproduction, which will significantly enhance profit elasticity [3][4] - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand due to real estate impacts, with short-term price expectations remaining low due to high inventory levels among intermediaries. The report predicts that prices will remain under pressure despite some production lines undergoing maintenance [4][15] - The fiberglass sector is seeing stable demand in wind power and thermoplastic fields, with the electronic yarn segment benefiting from AI industry demand, leading to a potential explosive growth in demand [4] - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price space. The report notes a strong demand for price increases across various categories, indicating potential profitability improvements for leading companies in 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement production in November 2025 was 154 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. The report emphasizes the need for policy-driven demand improvements [8] Glass - The report indicates that the glass market is under pressure, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement. The supply side has seen some production line maintenance, but overall supply-demand pressure remains [15] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is expected to see a demand surge driven by AI-related applications, with a clear upgrade in product structure leading to simultaneous volume and price increases [4] Consumer Building Materials - The report suggests that the consumer building materials industry is poised for profitability recovery, with leading companies expected to improve earnings in 2026 due to strong pricing power [4]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December 2025 increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month but decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a decline of 2.6% for the entire year of 2025 [2] - Analysts predict a moderate recovery in overall prices in 2026, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and the development of new economic drivers [2] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year increase in CPI in December 2025 was the highest since August 2023, driven primarily by rising vegetable and fruit prices due to adverse weather conditions, as well as the effects of year-end consumption promotion policies [2][3] - Specific price increases included fresh vegetables and fruits, which rose by 18.2% and 4.4% respectively, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase [3] - The prices of household appliances and vehicles also saw a month-on-month increase, exceeding market expectations [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points in December 2025, influenced by rising raw material prices and the effects of policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [4] - The PPI experienced a continuous month-on-month increase for three consecutive months, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [4] - For 2025, the PPI's year-on-year decline was 2.6%, which is a larger drop compared to the previous year, attributed to insufficient external demand and ongoing economic structural adjustments [4] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that the CPI will see a moderate increase in 2026, potentially around 1.2%, as the effects of growth-stimulating and consumption-promoting policies take hold [7] - The PPI is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2026, with a projected year-on-year decline narrowing to around 0.5%, although a return to positive growth may take longer [4][5] - Measures to ensure the supply and price stability of essential goods are being implemented, with local governments actively working to maintain market stability [6]

煤炭ETF（515220）规模超90亿元，其跟踪中证煤炭指数（399998），煤炭板块股息率较高，截至2025 年年末，跟踪指数近12个月股息率超6%，在无风险利率下行的背景下配置价值凸显。 资金面看，煤炭ETF（515220）连续3日净流入超5.6亿元，反内卷政策扭转煤炭市场预期。 山西证券指出，反内卷政策扭转了煤炭市场预期，2025年108号文通过查超产等措施压缩供给，促使煤 价企稳反弹，形成"政策底"与"预期顶"共同推导的合理煤价中枢。短期供给受控，中长期需关注需求复 苏，"十五五"期间煤炭消费将达峰但仍承担兜底保障作用。新能源装机虽快速增长，但在其发电增量超 过全社会用电增量前，对煤电的实质性挤压有限，预计2026年火电存量需求仍稳固。动力煤方面，2026 年将维持紧平衡，价格中枢约720元/吨；炼焦煤呈现弱平衡，价格中枢按动力煤的2.0-2.2倍推算，约为 1440-1584元/吨。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征 ...

Market Overview - The market sentiment is significantly active, with the Wind All A Index rising by 5.11% in the first week of 2026, indicating a potential main upward wave of spring excitement[8] - The A-share market has surpassed the 30 trillion yuan mark in trading volume for the fifth time in history, after 73 trading days[8] Economic Indicators - In December, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points[9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a significant upward trend since June 2025, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector[9] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as defense, electric power equipment, communication, and biomedicine have shown continuous improvement in revenue and net profit over the past two quarters, reflecting high-quality fundamental recovery[17] - The technology sector, particularly commercial aerospace, AI applications, and humanoid robotics, continues to lead market performance[8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with improving profitability, including beauty care, communication, basic chemicals, automotive, electric power equipment, biomedicine, electronics, and machinery[19] - The investment ratings for companies are categorized as "Buy" for expected growth of 5%-10%, "Hold" for -10% to +5%, and "Sell" for declines over 10%[25] Risk Factors - The report highlights potential risks associated with market volatility and regulatory changes impacting various sectors[24]

对中国经济预期持续改善，预计国际经贸形势影响可控 本期问卷邀请受访经济学家回顾2025年经济运行，展望2026年中国经济金融形势，为下一阶段宏观政策 施策建言。截至1月8日，共收集到61份答卷。人员构成上，受访者有35人来自金融机构，6人来自政府 部门，20人来自高校、智库以及非金融企业。 调查结果显示，受访经济学家对未来中国经济的预期进一步改善，"稳"成为受访者谈及今年经济形势预 期的高频词。多数受访者预计今年国际经贸形势对经济影响可控，我国物价水平将有所回升。受访者对 今年股市景气度的整体预期偏积极，A股成为过半数受访者看好的大类资产。受访者建议在新的一年谋 划更多稳楼市增量政策，可考虑建立全国性存量住房收购基金、继续降低存量房贷利率等举措。 过去一年，中国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活力。中央财办有关负责同志指出，预 计2025年全年经济增长5%左右，经济总量有望达到140万亿元左右。本期调查中，超七成(77%)受访经 济学家认为，过去一年中国经济增长表现基本符合年初预期，还有21%的受访者表示超出预期。 新的一年，中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大等长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent oil prices expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the organic silicon sector, driven by supply constraints and rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [2] - The report suggests focusing on key sectors such as industrial silicon, PVC, and phosphorus, as well as companies like Xinjiang Tianye and Xingfa Group, which are expected to benefit from differentiated electricity pricing policies in Shaanxi Province [2][3] Summary by Sections Chemical Macro Outlook - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with an expected increase in oil prices [3] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [3] - The U.S. is likely to accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [2][3] Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.7% to $63.02 per barrel, while WTI prices rose by 2.7% to $58.84 per barrel [9] - The PPI for all industrial products decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [5] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the textile chain, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemical products, and companies benefiting from "de-involution" policies [2] - Specific companies to watch include: - For textiles: Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., and Hengli Petrochemical - For agricultural chemicals: Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy - For export-related chemicals: Juhua Co. and Wanhu Chemical [2][15] Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalizations and projected earnings [15][16]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a high level of enthusiasm, with a focus on theme stocks and small-cap stocks, while traditional investment funds are more cautious [2] - The expectation is that the market will continue to show a pattern of oscillation and upward movement until the National People's Congress, driven by improved domestic demand expectations [2] - There is a recommendation to focus on resources and traditional manufacturing sectors, as well as to increase allocation in non-bank financials to reduce portfolio volatility [2] Group 2 - A-share valuations are expected to continue to rise, with a potential rebound in overall ROE by 2026, influenced by factors such as increased profits from emerging industries and a slowdown in PPI [3] - The influx of certain types of funds, including regulatory, insurance, and bank wealth management funds, is seen as a solid foundation for the A-share market [3] - The market is likely to see a continuation of the spring rally, with a focus on small-cap stocks and potential adjustments providing good entry points for investors [3] Group 3 - The current market environment suggests limited downside risk and significant potential for upward movement, particularly in the commercial aerospace sector, which is experiencing positive changes [5] - The market is characterized by a concentration of themes and strong trading sentiment, with upcoming earnings reports expected to drive structural adjustments [5] - There is a focus on sectors such as AI, semiconductor, and resource price increases as key areas for investment [9] Group 4 - The spring rally is supported by improved liquidity and a favorable economic environment, with expectations of continued strong performance in the A-share market [6] - The focus on technology and growth sectors is expected to provide significant investment opportunities, particularly in AI applications and commercial aerospace [11] - The market is likely to remain strong leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and economic recovery [14]