2025年四季度，市场波动有所加大，A股和港股在震荡中收官，结构性行情演绎至极致。Wind数据显示，去年四季度上证指数上涨2.22%，沪 深300指数下跌0.23%，创业板指下跌1.08%。此外，恒生指数下跌4.56%，恒生中国企业指数下跌6.72%。 主要指数表现平淡，但内部行业却冰火两重天。以AI算力、半导体为代表的科技成长板块高歌猛进，石油石化、国防军工、有色金属等行业 表现较好，而房地产、医药、计算机等行业表现相对承压。 随着公募基金2025年四季报披露完毕，傅鹏博、朱少醒、张坤、葛兰、谢治宇、李晓星、刘彦春等明星基金经理的持仓动向与后市展望浮出水 面。这种极致的市场风格，也映射出这些公募明星基金经理们截然不同的投资路径，这些分化直接体现在他们的净值曲线上。 Wind数据显示，锚定科技主线的基金在2025年四季度及2025年全年斩获显著超额收益。傅鹏博的睿远成长价值和李晓星的银华中小盘精选， 2025年全年上涨均超60%，大幅跑赢业绩比较基准。两者的共同特点是重仓AI算力、半导体等全年市场主线。 均衡配置型基金的表现也较为稳健。朱少醒的富国天惠精选成长A全年涨幅超20%，其分散在金融、消费、制造等多个 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the cumulative revenue of national industrial enterprises above designated size was 1.1% (2.1% in 2024), and the year - on - year growth rate of the total annual profit was 0.6% (-3.3% in 2024). Price improvement was the dominant factor, while the growth rate of industrial added value and operating profit margin remained basically stable. In December 2025, the profit growth rate turned positive, rising from -13% to 5.3%, driven by both volume and price increases [2]. - The stabilization of prices was the core of the annual profit growth. The growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size remained basically stable compared with 2024, and the policy of "anti - involution" led to an upward trend in PPIRM and PPI year - on - year growth rates since the second half of 2025, with CPI returning to the level of early 2023 by the end of the year. The operating profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 5.31% (5.39% at the end of 2024) [3]. - The proportion of mid - stream profits continued to increase, and the equipment manufacturing industry was the core engine. The profit structure of industrial enterprises was further optimized, with the profit share of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries being 16:48:36 in 2025 (21:44:36 in 2024). The equipment manufacturing industry's profit increased by 7.7% in 2025, driving the growth of all industrial enterprises' profits by 2.8 percentage points [4]. - The willingness of enterprises to expand their operations was weak. The year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 3.9%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in 2024. At the end of December, the asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises was 57.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year - on - year, and the liability growth rate was 4.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year - on - year. Inventory turned to passive destocking at the end of the year [7]. - Overall, the continuous recovery of industrial enterprises' profits in 2025 was the result of the effectiveness of "anti - involution" and industry policies, price stabilization, and industrial upgrading. High - tech manufacturing provided the core growth impetus. The market's core driver may gradually shift from "risk preference repair" and "policy expectation" to "profit verification" and "industry trend" [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Stabilization as the Core of Annual Profit Growth - Volume: The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size was 5.9% in 2025, basically the same as in 2024, indicating stable expansion of industrial production [3]. - Price: The policy of "anti - involution" led to an upward trend in PPIRM and PPI year - on - year growth rates since the second half of 2025, and CPI had recovered to the level of early 2023 by the end of the year [3]. - Profit Margin: The operating profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 5.31%, compared with 5.39% at the end of 2024 [3]. Mid - stream Profit Proportion Continued to Increase, with Equipment Manufacturing as the Core Engine - Industry Profit Structure: The profit share of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries was 16:48:36 in 2025 (21:44:36 in 2024), showing an optimization of the profit structure of industrial enterprises [4]. - Equipment Manufacturing Industry: In 2025, the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.7% compared with the previous year, driving the growth of all industrial enterprises' profits by 2.8 percentage points. Seven out of the eight major industries in the equipment manufacturing industry saw profit growth, with double - digit growth in the railway, ship, aerospace, and electronics industries [4]. - Upstream Raw Material Industry: Supported by the "anti - involution" policy and the recovery of some commodity prices, the profit decline of industries such as coal mining and non - ferrous metal smelting continued to narrow or the growth rate turned positive [4][6]. - Consumer Goods Manufacturing Industry: Affected by the relatively slow recovery of terminal demand, the year - on - year profit growth rates of consumer goods industries such as food manufacturing and textiles were still negative or at a low level, showing obvious structural weakness [6]. Weak Willingness of Enterprises to Expand Operations - Inventory: The year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 3.9%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in 2024. At the end of the year, inventory turned to passive destocking under the background of profit improvement and rising upstream raw material prices [7]. - Asset - Liability Ratio and Liability Growth Rate: At the end of December, the asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises was 57.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year - on - year, and the liability growth rate was 4.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year - on - year [7]. Asset Allocation Viewpoint - The continuous recovery of industrial enterprises' profits in 2025 was the result of the effectiveness of "anti - involution" and industry policies, price stabilization, and industrial upgrading. High - tech manufacturing provided the core growth impetus. The market's core driver may gradually shift from "risk preference repair" and "policy expectation" to "profit verification" and "industry trend" [8].

具体来看，化工板块内部不同品种走势驱动逻辑存在一定差异。新湖期货化工研发总监施潇涵指出，合 成橡胶、PX、PTA等品种靠基本面支撑，乙二醇为超跌反弹，甲醇、LPG等受伊朗地缘因素扰动，PVC 则属于跟随上涨，宏观资金对板块轮动、产能大周期的预期也成为推涨因素。 2026年开年化工市场强势反弹，芳烃、聚酯产业链及合成橡胶等品种期价大幅走高，与此同时A股化工 板块与期货市场形成共振，"化工牛"成资本市场热议话题。这是长期下行趋势终结的信号，还是短期情 绪推动的昙花一现？行业景气度能否就此迎来根本性改善？ "股期共振"下化工市场热度非凡 进入新一年，化工品市场多个品种表现亮眼。以芳烃产业链为例，纯苯、苯乙烯等期货价格自年初以来 持续攀升，截至1月28日，两个品种月度涨幅均超12%；聚酯产业链价格重心也持续上移，其中表现强 势的PTA期货价格较2025年10月的低点已涨超20%；此外，橡胶板块中，合成橡胶因原料丁二烯供应紧 张，价格涨势凌厉。股票市场上，化工ETF基金已连续上涨近半年，1月份多只龙头个股创阶段新高， 板块涨停股频现。 现货端价格同样有好转迹象。新华指数数据显示，截至2026年1月27日，中国能化现货估 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced increased volatility in Q4 2025, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing mixed performance, while sectors like AI computing and semiconductors thrived, contrasting with weaker performances in real estate and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.22% in Q4 2025, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.56% [1] - The technology growth sector, particularly AI computing and semiconductors, showed significant gains, while industries such as real estate and pharmaceuticals faced challenges [1] Group 2: Fund Manager Performance - Star fund managers like Fu Pengbo and Li Xiaoxing achieved over 60% returns in 2025, focusing on AI computing and semiconductors [2] - Balanced allocation funds, such as Zhu Shaoxing's, demonstrated stability with a 20% annual return, benefiting from diversified investments across various sectors [3][14] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fu Pengbo's fund increased its allocation to data center cooling and computing-related companies, with a top ten stock concentration of 70.38% [5] - Li Xiaoxing emphasized AI hardware innovation and semiconductor investments, with a focus on domestic advancements in the semiconductor industry [6] Group 4: Traditional Value Investments - Fund managers like Zhang Kun and Liu Yanhun maintained positions in traditional sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals, despite facing net value pressures [8][12] - Liu Yanhun's fund experienced a 5.85% decline in Q4, reflecting the challenges faced by traditional value sectors [12] Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - Fund managers noted the impact of "anti-involution" policies on corporate fundamentals, suggesting a shift towards supply-side optimization [17] - Despite market rebounds, equity assets are still viewed as attractive, with a focus on high-quality listed companies as scarce income-generating assets [18]

2026年开年，一只化工主题ETF在资本市场引发关注。鹏华基金旗下的化工ETF(159870)以惊人的增长 速度，从2025年7月仅15亿元的"小众标的"，跃升至如今超320亿元的规模体量，半年内实现20倍扩张， 稳坐全市场化工主题ETF头把交椅。 更值得关注的是，这只基金已成为专业机构的"心头好"，被24只公募FOF重仓持有，其业绩表现与流动 性水平同步领跑同类产品。背后既离不开化工行业供需格局的深刻变革，也得益于宏观政策的精准赋能 与产品自身的硬核实力，这只ETF的崛起，正是中国化工产业转型升级与资本市场价值重估的生动缩 影。 规模狂飙：从"小众标的"到"行业巨擘"的蜕变 化工ETF(159870)的规模增长轨迹，堪称资本市场的"逆袭爽文"。回顾其攀升历程，2025年7月是重要的 转折点，彼时基金规模尚在15亿元左右徘徊，随着化工行业基本面拐点显现与政策红利释放，资金开始 加速布局，基金规模开启跨越式增长。 2025年8月末，基金规模成功突破100亿元大关，实现量级跃升；9月初又迅速突破150亿元，确立了绝对 的头部优势；进入2026年，增长势头愈发迅猛，上演"加速度"行情：1月12日突破200亿元，1月 ...

周期反转的号角已经吹响，聪明资金悄然布局。 数据显示，2025年12月，石油和化工行业景气指数回升至100.91，环比上涨3.7个百分点，总体呈现复苏 迹象。值得注意的是，燃料加工业景气指数为114.45，环比上升19.77个百分点，显现出强劲反弹势头。 细分领域表现更加亮眼。在"减油增化"趋势推动下，炼化企业稳步推进转型升级。同时，传统石化品逐 步向高端化转型，国产替代加速，科技助力新兴产业崛起，新材料需求空间广阔。 今年以来，石化板块悄然走强。截至1月27日，石化ETF（159731）今年以来收益率已达11.82%，远超 沪深300指数1.64%的水平。更引人注目的是，该基金连续获得资金净流入，今年以来累计"吸金"达8亿 元，规模从去年底的2.45亿元迅速飙升至1月27日的10.45亿元，创下成立以来新高。 这一持续资金流入的背后，是市场对石化产业周期底部反转的强烈预期。 01 周期、政策与资金共振 首先，行业周期反转是最大驱动力。有研究机构指出，在基本面有所改善的背景下，化工板块的配置占 比在去年四季度出现触底回升。当前板块扩产周期基本结束，盈利仍处于周期底部。 华泰证券指出，2025年下半年以来化学原 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is on the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector in the A-share market, with fund managers adjusting their portfolios to include cyclical sectors like coal, oil and gas, and transportation to balance their holdings [1] - As of January 27, 2025, 1,201 A-share companies disclosed their annual performance forecasts, with 475 companies expecting positive results and 107 companies predicting a doubling of net profits year-on-year [2] - The public fund of funds (FOF) has shown a significant preference for resource-related assets, with the Huaan Gold ETF being heavily favored in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a trend towards resource investment [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has become a key focus for public funds, with 26 new products reported in 2026, primarily targeting technology, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical sectors, and a notable net inflow of nearly 30 billion yuan into Hong Kong-themed ETFs [4] - The gold and jewelry industry is expected to undergo significant changes in 2026 due to high gold prices, leading to a shift from price competition to value competition, favoring high-quality development [5] - The private equity fund management scale reached a record high of 22.15 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with private securities investment funds being the main contributors to new registrations [7] Group 3 - Several listed brokerages have reported positive earnings forecasts for 2025, with net profits expected to grow significantly, indicating a strong performance across the brokerage sector [8] - Over 150 companies are projected to achieve record high net profits in 2025, with the electronics industry being the largest contributor, highlighting a robust recovery in various sectors [9] - Nearly 1,250 companies have disclosed performance forecasts, with a median net profit exceeding 173 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 100% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a strong market recovery [10] Group 4 - Insurance capital is increasingly investing in private equity funds, with China Life announcing significant investments in two funds, reflecting a trend towards diversifying asset allocation [11] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to expand the scale of entrusted investments for basic pension insurance funds, indicating ongoing reforms in social security systems [12] - In 2025, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China increased by 0.6% compared to 2024, with a notable recovery in December, particularly in the manufacturing sector [13][14]

今日化工板块继续强势上涨，化工ETF天弘(159133)标的指数上涨2.47%，自去年12月17日以来累 计上涨27.93%，资金更是持续涌入化工ETF天弘(159133)，已连续20日净申购，合计净流入10.7亿元， 今日盘中继续获资金净申购1.21亿份，冲击"21连吸金"。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 资金持续涌入化工ETF的背后是供给收缩、需求端回暖、以及反内卷政策的多重因素推动： 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ①供给端收缩：全球范围内化工产能出清加速，如欧洲石化行业关闭多套裂解装置，韩国巨头宣布 减产。 ④目前，A股共有1201家上市公司披露2025年业绩预告，有色金属、化工、半导体等行业业绩回暖 较为明显。 宝城期货指出，本轮化工板块并非短期资金炒作的结果，而是成本端企稳、供给端优化、需求端复 苏、政策端赋能四大核心因素共振，更是化工行业告别"内卷"，迈入高质量发展的拐点 ...

(原油) 隔夜夜盘铜价震荡调整，但美盘铜尾盘随贵金属收回跌势。昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩 至93美元。贵金属短线波动大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风 险。关注短期均线位置强弱,延续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 【铝】 夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 ...

Core Viewpoints - December profits showed a significant rebound, primarily driven by other income items rather than revenue and cost contributions, resembling the performance in August [3][9] - The overall industrial enterprise profit in December increased by 5.1 percentage points year-on-year to 18.5%, with profit margins contributing 21.7 percentage points to profit growth [3][9] - The increase in profits was largely attributed to short-term indicators such as investment income and miscellaneous expenses, which rose significantly compared to the previous month [3][9] Industry Analysis - In December, certain industries such as non-ferrous processing and coal mining saw substantial profit increases, contributing 5.7 and 4 percentage points to overall profit growth, respectively [3][16] - The revenue and cost pressures in these industries did not exhibit "excessive" changes, indicating that other income sources played a significant role in profit increases [3][16] - Similar to August, the beverage and alcohol sectors also contributed significantly to overall industrial profits, with a 7.8 percentage point increase [3][16] Cost Analysis - In December, the cost pressure for industrial enterprises slightly improved, with the overall cost rate falling to 83.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous year [4][27] - The cost rates for the petrochemical and metallurgy sectors improved significantly, dropping to 84.3% and 84.5%, respectively, lower than the previous year's figures [4][27] - Specific industries such as non-ferrous rolling, petroleum and coal processing, and metal products also experienced a decline in cost rates [4][27] Revenue Analysis - December saw a decline in industrial enterprise revenue, with actual revenue growth dropping 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to -2.1% [4][39] - All three major industrial chains experienced revenue declines, with the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains showing year-on-year decreases of 1.2, 2.8, and 4.2 percentage points, respectively [4][39] - The revenue decline was particularly pronounced in the automotive, metal products, and furniture sectors, with significant drops in growth rates [4][65] Summary - High cost rates remain a key constraint on profit recovery, with the "anti-involution" policy expected to accelerate in 2026, necessitating close attention to its impact on industrial enterprise cost pressures [5][93] - The current increase in profit pressure is primarily due to downstream involution-style investments, leading to rising fixed cost pressures [5][93] - Future improvements in cost pressures are anticipated as the "anti-involution" policy is further implemented and enterprises accelerate debt repayments [5][93]