Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, with spot gold surpassing $4,140 per ounce, marking an increase of over 3% this week [1][3]. Price Movements - Domestic gold jewelry prices have significantly increased by nearly 30 CNY per gram compared to yesterday, with some prices exceeding 1,300 CNY per gram, reaching new highs [3][5]. - Specific prices for gold jewelry include: Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang, and Chow Tai Sheng at 1,308 CNY per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao gold jewelry are priced at 1,310 CNY per gram [5]. Market Dynamics - The high gold prices, combined with tax impacts, are expected to negatively affect gold sales, leading to an increase in gold exchange and remelting businesses [9]. - A local gold shop owner noted a rise in customers exchanging old jewelry for new pieces, indicating a shift in consumer behavior due to high gold prices [11][12]. Future Outlook - Since reaching a historical high of $4,380 per ounce in mid-October, gold has decreased by approximately 6%, but remains up over 56% for the year [14]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing rise in gold prices is driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions, with expectations for continued growth in the coming year [14]. - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could reach $5,200 to $5,300 by the end of 2026, while Goldman Sachs has a more conservative estimate of $4,900 [16]. - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves, continuing a trend of accumulation for the 12th consecutive month [16]. - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global central banks accelerated gold purchases in Q3, with a net purchase of 220 tons, reflecting a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-on-year growth [16].

金价拉升。 11月10日午后，贵金属市场大幅拉升走高，黄金期现涨幅均超过2%，白银期货涨幅一度超过4%，其他 贵金属亦不同程度走高。截至发稿，伦敦金现涨2.51%，报4101.06美元/盎司；COMEX黄金涨2.59%， 报4113.5美元/盎司；伦敦银现涨3.5%，报50.018美元/盎司，COMEX白银涨3.99%，报50.065美元/盎 司；现货铂金涨2.59%，NYMEX铂涨2.79%；现货钯金涨3.14%，NYMEX钯涨2.27%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦全现 | 4101.060 | 100.350 | 2.51% | | 伦敦银现 | 50.018 | 1.692 | 3.50% | | COMEX黄金 | 4113.5 d | 103.7 | 2.59% | | COMEX白银 | 50.065 d | 1.922 | 3.99% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 938.6415 | 22.9679 | 2.51% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 11448.0088 | 387.2612 | 3.50% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a significant increase due to factors such as a weakening US dollar, government shutdown risks, and regional political tensions, with expectations for continued growth in the coming year [1][2] - As of November 10, 2025, spot gold prices rose over 1%, reaching a peak of $4056.85 per ounce, reflecting a strong market response [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has shown a notable performance, with a 1.07% increase on November 10, 2025, marking its third consecutive rise, and a cumulative increase of 17.09% over the past three months [1][2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with a total of 9.24 billion yuan over the past 21 trading days, indicating strong investor interest [2] - According to the China Gold Association, domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 164.03% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total holding of 193.749 tons by the end of September [2] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by global liquidity expansion and preferences influenced by de-globalization risks, with ongoing fluctuations in gold prices primarily influenced by US-China trade relations and interest rate expectations [2]

业内认为，日前金价的持续上涨，由美元走弱、政府关门风险、地缘政治紧张局势等因素共同驱动。 其中，美国私营部门就业数据的疲软为黄金提供了支撑。Challenger报告显示，10月企业裁员超过15万 人，为20余年来同期最高水平。美国劳动力市场增速的放缓，使得市场提升了对美联储年内再降息的预 期。目前，投资者预期美联储12月降息25个基点的概率接近66%。 中金公司认为，展望明年，黄金有望延续涨势。一方面，逆全球化大势和战略安全诉求或继续为新兴国 家央行增持黄金储备提供中长期支撑。另一方面，美国经济增长压力或在明年上半年继续显现，美联储 已在今年9月重启降息，并可能在年末结束缩表，流动性宽松周期或将继续。 【导读】国际金价创11月以来新高 11月10日，金价再次直线上涨！ 截至发稿，黄金现货和期货报价均创下11月以来新高。其中，伦敦金现报4047.01美元/盎司，上涨 1.16%；COMEX黄金报4055.5美元/盎司，上涨1.14%。 A股市场上，黄金股集体大涨。截至发稿，黄金珠宝指数涨幅达1.85%。其中，萃华珠宝涨幅接近8%， 湖南黄金涨超5%，潮宏基、曼卡龙等涨超3%。 其中，黄金首饰消费量为270.03 ...

Summary of the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum sector has an annualized price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 8-9 times and a dividend yield exceeding 5%, with potential for further increases [1][2][3] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise at an annual level, which will enhance profit elasticity and present a favorable annual allocation choice [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply Constraints**: Recent overseas marginal production cuts, particularly in Iceland and Mozambique due to power station issues, are expected to impact global supply by 1-1.5 percentage points, significantly affecting the market [1][2] - **Metal Rotation Dynamics**: Following new highs in metals like gold, silver, and copper, aluminum prices are anticipated to shift from recession expectations to inflation recovery or soft landing expectations, indicating a price recovery potential [1][3] - **Institutional Allocation**: The third quarter saw a decrease in public fund holdings in the electrolytic aluminum sector, making it an attractive choice for annual allocation in a liquidity easing environment [1][3] - **Long-term Investment Timing**: The current period is viewed as the best time to buy, coinciding with the mid-stage of interest rate hikes and liquidity easing, which is expected to lead to synchronized increases in stock valuations and commodity prices [5][6] Price Trends - Short-term aluminum prices in London and Shanghai have reached near three-year highs, with significant upward potential remaining [4] - The price ratio between copper and aluminum is expected to converge from the current 4-4.2 times to around 3.5 times, suggesting aluminum prices could approach historical highs [7] Market Demand and Substitution - Copper and aluminum are increasingly used interchangeably in various applications, which helps alleviate supply pressures from individual metals [8] Future Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is projected to undergo a valuation reconfiguration, potentially increasing from the current P/E ratio of 8-9 times to 10-13 times or even 15 times over the next 3-5 years due to tightening sustainable power supply and other factors [2][17] - The global energy demand from data centers and the impact of EU carbon tax policies are expected to further influence the sector's dynamics [11][12] Regional Supply Constraints - Areas such as Indonesia, the Middle East, and Africa face significant challenges in expanding production capacity due to local electricity availability [10][15] Company Performance - Integrated companies like Tianshan Aluminum, Hongqiao, and China Aluminum are expected to perform more stably, while non-integrated companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Yun Aluminum may benefit from price fluctuations in alumina [18] Conclusion - The electrolytic aluminum sector is positioned for potential growth and valuation recovery, driven by supply constraints, favorable market dynamics, and institutional interest, making it a key area for investment consideration in the coming years [17][19]

Group 1 - Gold stocks continue to rise, with notable increases in shares of companies such as Zhenfeng Gold (+5.94%), Zhaojin Mining (+4.68%), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (+3.81%), and Shandong Gold (+3.66%) [1] - As of the end of October, the central bank's gold reserves reached 74.09 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of September, marking the 12th consecutive month of accumulation [1] - UBS reported that central bank gold purchases totaled 634 tons by the end of Q3 this year, slightly lower than the same period last year, but showing signs of recovery in Q4, aligning with their forecast of 900 to 950 tons for the entire year of 2025 [1] Group 2 - According to CICC's research report, gold is expected to maintain its upward trend next year, with structural and cyclical opportunities likely to resonate [1] - The trend of de-globalization and strategic security concerns may continue to support the accumulation of gold reserves by central banks in emerging markets, with higher demands for physical gold inventory construction in regional markets by 2025 [1] - Economic growth pressures in the U.S. may persist into the first half of next year, with the Federal Reserve having restarted interest rate cuts in September and potentially ending balance sheet reduction by year-end, suggesting a continuation of the liquidity easing cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that liquidity easing and supply-side constraints will continue to be the main investment themes in the energy and materials sectors, benefiting precious metals, industrial metals, and certain chemicals like chromium and refrigerants [1] Group 1: Market Overview - From early 2025 to the present, the non-ferrous metal index has significantly outperformed the broader market, primarily due to strong performances in precious and rare metals [2] - Basic chemicals and steel indices have performed similarly to the market, while coal and oil & petrochemical indices have underperformed [2] Group 2: Precious Metals and Copper - Despite a recent high-level pullback in gold prices, the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle is expected to support gold prices, with a projected range of $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce for 2026 [3] - Silver is anticipated to have strong price elasticity due to an expanding supply-demand gap, with a projected price range of $50 to $60 per ounce for 2026 [3] - Copper remains a key investment direction in the metals sector, with a projected price range of $10,000 to $12,000 per ton for 2026, benefiting from liquidity easing and tightening supply [3] Group 3: Supply Constraints and Chemical Products - Supply-side constraints are expected to strengthen, with aluminum supply growth slowing and cobalt prices likely to rise due to severe supply shortages [4] - The projected price for aluminum in 2026 is set at 21,500 RMB per ton, while cobalt is expected to range between 400,000 to 450,000 RMB per ton [4] - Chromium and refrigerants are also expected to see price increases due to tight supply conditions influenced by environmental regulations [4] Group 4: Strategic Metals and US-China Relations - The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions are enhancing the investment value of strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, with stable demand growth in defense and advanced manufacturing sectors [5] - The projected price range for praseodymium-neodymium oxide in 2026 is expected to rise to 550,000 to 650,000 RMB per ton, while tungsten is projected to be between 300,000 to 350,000 RMB per ton [5] Group 5: High Demand for Lithium and Potash - Lithium prices are expected to rise due to stronger-than-expected demand from energy storage batteries, with a projected price range of 80,000 to 100,000 RMB per ton for 2026 [6] - Potash prices are also expected to increase, driven by delayed production expansions in major producing regions and strong demand growth in Southeast Asia [6] Group 6: Coal, Steel, Silicon, and Oil - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support price recoveries in coal, steel, and silicon materials, with projections for slight price increases in thermal coal, coking coal, and silicon materials in 2026 [7] - The steel industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2025, with ongoing supply constraints and improved profit distribution trends [7] - Oil supply and demand are expected to shift from a loose to a balanced state, with Brent crude oil prices projected to rise to $65 to $70 per barrel [7]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment among brokerages for the A-share market in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a sustained slow bull market and potential to challenge ten-year highs [2][3]. - Brokerages believe that A-share valuations remain low, with anticipated improvements in earnings and continued liquidity support, alongside policy backing, contributing to upward market movement [2][4]. - The current market position is viewed as a potential starting point for a long-term bull market, driven by gradual improvements in fundamentals and industry highlights, with significant room for index growth [4][5]. Group 2 - Multiple brokerages emphasize the importance of corporate earnings recovery as a key driver for the A-share market, with expectations that the earnings cycle will gradually improve [5][6]. - Predictions indicate that the net profit growth rate for non-financial companies in the A-share market will be 6.4% in 2025 and 12.9% in 2026, with specific sectors like oil and petrochemicals expected to see higher growth [6]. - The liquidity environment is expected to support the market, although low-risk preference funds have been slow to enter the equity market, indicating a long-term process for significant capital inflows [7]. Group 3 - The technology sector is highlighted as a key focus for investment in 2026, with expectations of balanced industry performance and opportunities in advanced manufacturing and TMT sectors [8]. - Brokerages suggest a shift from a barbell strategy to a quality strategy, with emerging technologies being the main focus while also considering cyclical consumption and financial stocks [8].

来源：市场资讯 吴说获悉，Coinbase Institutional 发布最新月度展望报告称，10 月 10 日的大规模清算后，加密市场杠杆 已显著出清，短期底部或已形成。报告指出，此次去杠杆属于"健康重置"，市场结构更稳健，未来数月 预计将进入"筑底上行"阶段，而非周期顶部。根据期权隐含分布，未来 3–6 个月市场对 BTC 的价格预 期区间为 9 万至 16 万美元，倾向上行。报告称，美联储降息、流动性宽松与监管新政（如 GENIUS、 CLARITY 法案）将构成中期顺风，可能令本轮周期延续至 2026 年。"聪明资金"正进行选择性加仓，聚 焦 EVM 生态、收益协议与 RWA 板块。 （来源：吴说） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Friday's marginal tightening of funds and the central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operations do not indicate a marginal shift in the central bank's attitude. Since June, liquidity has been mainly characterized by easing, and the number of optimistic funding indicators has further increased in November. The central bank's easing is gradually being realized, and DR001 could move towards 7 - day OMO - 20BP. For certificates of deposit, continue with the current allocation and wait for the capital gain game space after the expectation of interest rate cuts rises [4][5]. - The marginal tightening of funds on Friday and the central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operations are due to frictions in fund delivery, not a change in the central bank's attitude. With OMO returning to net investment, the probability of stable low - level funding prices is higher. The "shortening and lengthening" operation does not represent a change in the central bank's attitude. The central bank's policy is supportive, and it is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and the stability of funding prices at a low level [4]. 3. Summary by Related Directory 3.1. 1. Loose Policy is Being Realized, and Funding Prices are Becoming More Optimistic - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank adopted a "shortening and lengthening" approach. It carried out advance equal - volume roll - overs of repurchase agreements and continuously withdrew short - term liquidity while ensuring a proper level of overall liquidity. For example, on November 4, it announced bond - buying of 200 billion yuan in October, and on November 5, it advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase agreement due on November 7 [14]. - **Fund Quantity**: The bank's net lending ability is closely linked to the central bank's operations. Institutions slightly increased leverage. After the fiscal support at the beginning of the month and the injection of liquidity through bond - buying, the net lending of state - owned and joint - stock banks continued to rise. Institutions increased leverage due to low funding prices, and the segmentation of non - bank funds remained at a low level [14]. - **Funding Prices**: The performance of funding price indicators is more optimistic. DR001 was mostly stable at 1.31%, Shibor 3M continued to decline, and DR007 started to approach the 7 - day OMO rate. Since October, the proportion of DR001 weighted around 1.31% has become more concentrated, Shibor 3M has been on a downward trend since the central bank announced "restarting bond - buying" on October 28, and DR007 has shown a trend of approaching the 7 - day OMO rate [16]. - **Reasons for Friday's Marginal Tightening of Funds**: The marginal tightening of funds on November 7 was due to the friction in fund delivery. Although the central bank advanced the roll - over of the 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase agreement, the large - scale withdrawal of 7 - day liquidity caused short - term disturbances, but this does not represent a change in the central bank's attitude [18]. - **Analysis of the "Shortening and Lengthening" Operation**: Different from the period of financial de - leveraging from 2016 to 2017, the current central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operation is to inject medium - and long - term liquidity while reducing the price of relevant liquidity tools, which is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and the stability of funding prices at a low level [20][21]. - **Certificate of Deposit Situation**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of small and medium - sized banks on certificates of deposit decreased significantly. Non - bank institutions such as money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries were more active in trading before the bond - buying announcement. In the future, the lower limit of certificates of deposit is constrained by the non - cut of policy interest rates, but it is difficult for 1 - year certificates of deposit to be significantly higher than 1.63%. The current level of certificates of deposit can continue to be allocated [23][24]. 3.2. 2. Weekly Tracking of Funds and Certificates of Deposit and Key Matters - **Central Bank**: This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from reverse repurchases and advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 3 - month repurchase agreement. Next week, 49.58 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 100 billion yuan of repurchase agreement funds and 90 billion yuan of MLF due in November [32]. - **Government Bonds**: This week, the net financing of government bonds was 13.84 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.15576 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 83.4%, and a net payment of 3.68 billion yuan. Next week, the net financing will be 24.98 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.17987 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 85.1%, and a net payment of 36.92 billion yuan. There will be a 30 - year treasury bond issuance on November 14, and the issuance proportion of treasury bonds and local government bonds with a term of 10 years and above is about 31.03% and 73.00% respectively [32]. - **Bills**: After the month - end, the bill - boosting effect weakened, and bill interest rates generally increased. As of November 7, the 3 - month and 6 - month straight - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks all increased compared with October 31 [52]. - **Exchange Rate**: This week, the RMB depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar. The swap points of USDCNH/USDCNY were around 1400 points/1300 points. The central bank's regulation of the exchange rate was weak, with the mid - price of the US dollar against the RMB slightly depreciating, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 358 pips [54][58]. - **Fund Supply and Demand**: The net lending of state - owned banks increased, the net lending of money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries decreased, and most non - bank institutions increased leverage. Except for insurance, the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. Overnight funding prices slightly increased, and the 7 - day funding price decreased. Except for the last trading day, the funding feeling was loose [60][73]. - **Certificates of Deposit - Primary Market**: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 15.099 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 18.6%. State - owned banks' net financing turned positive, while joint - stock banks' net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of certificates of deposit increased, and the proportion of long - term certificate of deposit issuance by banks increased [78][80][82]. - **Certificates of Deposit - Secondary Market**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of banks on certificates of deposit decreased. Before the bond - buying announcement, trading activity was high, and non - bank institutions were strong buyers. After the announcement, trading activity and non - bank buying power decreased. This week, the yield of certificates of deposit fluctuated downward, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield was 1.6300% [86][89]. 3.3. 3. Central Bank: Pay Attention to the Roll - Over of 6 - Month Repurchase Agreements - **This Week**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from reverse repurchases, and advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 3 - month repurchase agreement. The balance of reverse repurchases was 49.58 billion yuan as of November 7, still higher than the seasonal level [36]. - **Next Week**: 49.58 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 100 billion yuan of repurchase agreement funds and 90 billion yuan of MLF due in November [38]. 3.4. 4. Government Bonds: Next Week's Net Payment will Rise to 36.92 Billion Yuan - **This Week**: The net financing of government bonds was 13.84 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.15576 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 83.4%, and a net payment of 3.68 billion yuan [42]. - **Next Week**: The net financing will be 24.98 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.17987 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 85.1%, and a net payment of 36.92 billion yuan. The net financing progress of treasury bonds is 86.1% (higher than the historical average), and the issuance progress of new local government general bonds, new local government special bonds, and special refinancing bonds is 86.4%, 88.3%, and 94.4% respectively (lower than the historical average) [42][43]. 3.5. 5. Bills: The Bill - Boosting Effect Weakens, and Bill Interest Rates Generally Increase - After the month - end, the bill - boosting effect weakened, and bill interest rates generally increased. As of November 7, the 3 - month and 6 - month straight - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks all increased compared with October 31 [52]. 3.6. 6. Exchange Rate: The RMB Depreciates - This week, the RMB depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar. The swap points of USDCNH/USDCNY were around 1400 points/1300 points. The central bank's regulation of the exchange rate was weak, with the mid - price of the US dollar against the RMB slightly depreciating, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 358 pips [54][58]. 3.7. 7. Market Fund Supply and Demand: The Net Lending of State - Owned Banks Continues to Recover - The net lending of state - owned banks increased, the net lending of money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries decreased, and most non - bank institutions increased leverage. Except for insurance, the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. Overnight funding prices slightly increased, and the 7 - day funding price decreased. Except for the last trading day, the funding feeling was loose [60][73]. 3.8. 8. Certificates of Deposit: The Net Financing of State - Owned Banks Turns Positive, and the Weighted Issuance Duration Increases - **Primary Market**: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 15.099 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 18.6%. State - owned banks' net financing turned positive, while joint - stock banks' net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of certificates of deposit increased, and the proportion of long - term certificate of deposit issuance by banks increased [78][80][82]. - **Secondary Market**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of banks on certificates of deposit decreased. Before the bond - buying announcement, trading activity was high, and non - bank institutions were strong buyers. After the announcement, trading activity and non - bank buying power decreased. This week, the yield of certificates of deposit fluctuated downward, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield was 1.6300% [86][89].