Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Price fluctuations will narrow, offering limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [6][44] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai copper futures showed a fluctuating and slightly weakening trend, with prices ranging from around 78,490 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 79,290 yuan/ton [8] - Last week, LME copper futures prices fluctuated, with contract prices ranging from 9,671 - 9,791 US dollars/ton [12] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In July, the real year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.38% compared to the previous month. From January to July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries, 35 had year - on - year growth in added value [16] - Fed Chairman Powell hinted on the 22nd that despite current inflationary risks, the Fed may cut interest rates in the coming months [43] 3. Spot Analysis - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,825 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 79,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The electrolytic copper premium was around 135 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 37.65 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 3.76 cents/pound. In July 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous month, but a 14% year - on - year increase [25] - As of July 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.1694 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The monthly automobile output was 2.5102 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [30] 5. Inventory Situation - As of August 22, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 81,698 tons, a decrease of 4,663 tons from the previous week. As of August 20, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 7.26%. As of August 21, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 271,696 tons, an increase of 1,160 tons from the previous trading day [34] - As of August 21, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 87,400 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,400 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 15,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 800 tons from the previous week [34] 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - Similar to the content in the macroeconomic aspect and supply - demand and inventory parts, including industrial added - value growth, Fed's potential interest - rate cut, copper smelting fees, refined copper output, copper product and automobile output, and inventory changes [43] 7. Market Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Price fluctuations will narrow, offering limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories decreased on August 22, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4663 tons from the previous week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is neutral [2]. - The net position of the main players is long, and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - With inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, weak consumption in the off - season, and increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The comprehensive analysis of copper's various indicators shows a neutral - to - bullish situation, and short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact are not elaborated [3]. Spot - Information about spot prices, inventory types, and their changes is presented, but specific numerical data is not fully filled in [6]. 期现价差 - Not elaborated further in the provided content Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4663 tons from the previous week, and the LME inventory and other inventory data are also mentioned [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not elaborated further in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, and other data of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic sentiment is improving, and copper prices are expected to strengthen starting in September 2025. The SHFE copper closing price is 78,690 RMB/ton, down 0.47% from August 15, while the LME copper closing price is 9,797 USD/ton, up 0.37% from the same date [2]. - Domestic copper demand is anticipated to improve post-September, driven by the end of the off-season and increased demand from sectors such as power grids and air conditioning [2][5]. - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to continue rising in 2025 [5]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - Global copper concentrate production in June increased by 3.6% year-on-year but decreased by 4.1% month-on-month. China's copper concentrate production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [3][49]. - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 0.2% [3][26]. - **Demand**: - In July, the production of household air conditioners was 16.12 million units, down 0.01% year-on-year but higher than the previous forecast of 15.81 million units [4][92]. - The cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate of cable enterprises at 68.88%, down 0.42 percentage points week-on-week [4][73]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends the following companies for investment: Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook, with all rated as "Accumulate" [6].

Price Overview - On March 22, 2024, the main contract price of copper futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 72,680 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 230 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The average price of electrolytic copper in the spot market ranged from 72,620 yuan to 72,920 yuan per ton, with an average of 72,770 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from yesterday [1] - In Guangdong, the price was slightly higher, ranging from 72,830 yuan to 73,130 yuan per ton [1] Scrap Copper Prices - In Shanghai, the price for bright copper wire (commonly referred to as 1 copper) ranged from 68,200 yuan to 68,500 yuan per ton, while the price for purple mixed copper was between 65,900 yuan and 66,200 yuan per ton [2] - In Guangdong, the price for bright copper wire was higher, ranging from 68,600 yuan to 68,900 yuan per ton, and purple mixed copper was priced between 66,300 yuan and 66,600 yuan per ton [2] - Prices in other regions like Tianjin and Zhejiang also fluctuated but varied based on quality and transaction volume [2] Factors Influencing Copper Prices - The demand for copper, as a crucial raw material for industrial production, directly impacts its price, with increased demand during economic recovery and infrastructure projects [5] - The price trends on the London Metal Exchange (LME) serve as a global benchmark for copper prices, often influencing domestic prices [5] - Stricter environmental policies and restrictions on scrap copper imports also affect copper pricing [7] Relevance of Copper Price Fluctuations - The fluctuations in copper prices are significant for household financial decisions, as individuals can sell scrap copper at opportune times to increase income [7] - For scrap recycling businesses, copper price volatility directly impacts profit margins, necessitating accurate market assessments [7] - Some investors view copper as an investment vehicle, participating in futures and stocks to benefit from price increases [7] Conclusion - Overall, on March 22, 2024, copper prices exhibited a stable upward trend, making both spot and scrap copper markets worthy of attention [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are oscillating weakly. The main contract closed at 78,540. The spot price rose 30 to 78,800, and the spot premium fell 30 to 160. The spot import window remains open, with a profit of 230 yuan/ton. Short - term demand is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, and inventories are low, so the fundamentals still support copper prices. The market is cautious before important events, lacking obvious bullish factors, and copper prices are expected to continue narrow - range oscillations, with continued attention on the 78,000 support level [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices are oscillating weakly. The main contract closed at 78,540. The spot price rose 30 to 78,800, and the spot premium fell 30 to 160. The spot import window is open with a profit of 230 yuan/ton. The short - term demand is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, and the low inventory provides support for copper prices. However, due to the approaching important events, the market is cautious and lacks obvious bullish factors, so copper prices are expected to continue narrow - range oscillations, and the 78,000 support level should be continuously monitored [10] 3.2 Industry News - Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco will cut its 2025 copper production guidance due to a production halt at the El Teniente copper mine. The refined copper production in this division is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons, the copper sales profit will decline by 233 million US dollars, and the economic loss caused by the production cut is 340 million US dollars [11] - Jianfa Shenghai will invest 12.15 billion yuan (Jianfa holds 51%) and is set to start production in May 2026, with an annual production of 600,000 tons of cathode copper, 16.84 tons of gold, 1,121 tons of silver, 2.36 million tons of by - product sulfuric acid, 600,000 tons of industrial - grade phosphoric acid for new - energy batteries, 100,000 tons of iron phosphate, and 2 million tons of compound fertilizer [11] - First Quantum has launched a 1.25 - billion - dollar expansion project at its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are oscillating weakly, with the main contract closing at 78,640. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on Friday night, the US dollar index is oscillating, and market sentiment is cautious. Spot prices dropped 330 to 78,770, and the spot premium fell 5 to 190. The spot import window remains open, with a profit of 350 yuan/ton due to the increase in the Shanghai-London ratio to 8.12 and the expansion of the LME 0 - 3 contango structure to $96.85/ton. The demand for Yangshan copper has improved, and both the warehouse receipt and bill of lading premiums have risen. Short - term demand is in the transition between the off - season and peak season, and with low inventories both at home and abroad, the fundamentals still support copper prices. The short - term support level is 78,000, but market caution persists before important events, and there is a lack of obvious positive factors, so copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices are oscillating weakly, and the main contract closed at 78,640. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting, the US dollar index is oscillating, and market sentiment is cautious. Spot prices dropped 330, and the spot premium fell 5. The spot import window is open with a profit of 350 yuan/ton. The demand for Yangshan copper has improved, and subsequent imports of copper are expected to increase. Short - term demand is in the transition period, and fundamentals support copper prices. The short - term support level is 78,000, and copper prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [10] 3.2 Industry News - In July 2025, China's copper strip exports were 10,531.17 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84% and a year - on - year increase of 0.17%. From January to July, the cumulative export of copper strips was 71,070 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.12% [11] - In July 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports continued to grow, covering 142 countries and regions, with a total export volume up 25.45% year - on - year. Exports to India and Turkey increased by 450% and 290% year - on - year respectively. Exports to the US decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and are expected to decline significantly in the future due to US tariffs on copper semi - finished products [11] - In July 2025, China imported 84,200 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 22.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. From January to July, the cumulative import of anode copper was 466,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.72% [11]

Group 1 - Recent domestic copper concentrate processing fees have rebounded, indicating a significant easing of supply tightness due to additional concentrate supply entering the market [2][3] - The domestic refined copper supply for the first half of the year was approximately 7.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, driven by production growth [5] - The overall refined copper supply in China is expected to remain sufficient, with domestic smelters maintaining high production levels despite seasonal maintenance [6] Group 2 - Domestic copper social inventory has shown signs of recovery, primarily due to increased imports, while U.S. copper inventory continues to rise [7][8] - The copper price is expected to experience a downward adjustment in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to underlying support factors [9][10] - The demand for copper in the second half of the year is anticipated to remain strong in China, while overseas demand may follow a high-low trend [7]

Group 1: Tariff Impact and Market Reaction - The U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper derivatives starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices and closing the arbitrage space between U.S. and London copper prices [1] - The sentiment around domestic "anti-involution" policies has cooled, resulting in a general decline in commodity prices, with the characteristics of the off-season in the non-ferrous metal sector becoming more pronounced [1] Group 2: Supply and Production Dynamics - Global copper supply remains tight, with several major copper mining companies lowering their annual production guidance due to underperformance [2] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a year-on-year increase of approximately 300,000 tons in global concentrate production for the first five months, but refined copper production is expected to increase by only 450,000 tons due to profit pressures in the smelting segment [2] - The market anticipates a tight balance or slight shortage in the global copper market from 2025 to 2028, with expected growth in global copper mine production potentially below 1% by 2025 [2] Group 3: Processing Fees and Smelting Profitability - Antofagasta reached a copper concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) of $0.0 per thousand tons and $0.0 per pound with Chinese smelting companies for mid-2025, indicating a continued tight supply of copper concentrates [3] - Despite some smelting plants operating at a loss, the overall smelting profit has improved when accounting for by-product sulfuric acid revenue [3] Group 4: Demand Trends and Seasonal Effects - The recent U.S. tariff policy does not restrict copper raw material imports, leading to a rapid disappearance of the COMEX copper premium, with U.S. copper imports exceeding last year's levels [4] - Downstream processing enterprises are cautious about high copper prices, primarily purchasing to meet immediate needs, resulting in weak market demand [5] - The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has dropped to around 70%, with signs of slowing progress in major power grid projects [5] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - The supply side is becoming marginally looser due to high domestic refined copper production and steady import levels, while traditional copper-consuming industries show clear signs of off-season characteristics [6] - The pricing logic for copper is shifting from macro-driven sentiment to fundamentals, with expectations of weak copper prices in the short term due to seasonal demand fatigue and pressure from the spot market [6]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.37% [1] - The pet economy and China Shipbuilding Industry Group sectors saw significant gains, while sectors like fiberglass, securities IT, and computing power chips experienced declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3728.49, up 0.01%, with a trading volume of 99.26 billion [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 11827.90, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 130.86 billion [2] - ChiNext Index: 2596.58, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 57.34 billion [2] - Northbound 50 Index: 1587.33, up 0.68%, with a trading volume of 5.06 billion [2] External Market - US stock indices closed nearly flat, with the Dow Jones down 34.30 points (0.08%), the Nasdaq up 6.80 points (0.03%), and the S&P 500 down 0.65 points (0.01%) [3] - Investors are awaiting earnings reports from major retailers and the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.12%, with mixed performance among popular Chinese concept stocks [3] Institutional Insights - CICC reports that A-shares are currently reasonably valued, with the CSI 300 dynamic P/E ratio around 12.2 times, indicating no significant overvaluation [4] - The total market capitalization of A-shares is approximately 100 trillion yuan, with a GDP ratio that remains relatively low compared to major global markets [4] - Huatai Securities highlights that the brokerage sector is undervalued and expects a value reassessment as market conditions improve [5] - Galaxy Securities anticipates that rare earth magnetic materials will see performance improvements in Q3 due to rising demand and supply constraints [6][7] Sector Opportunities - Open Source Securities notes that strong automotive manufacturers and high-growth robotics component companies are likely to benefit significantly from the commercialization of intelligent driving [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US employment data is weak and the CPI reflects moderate inflation, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The domestic central bank's monetary policy aims to keep prices at a reasonable level, with positive macro - impacts both at home and abroad. - Fundamentally, spot inventory remains low, and premiums are firm. There are concerns about supply reduction during the September - October maintenance peak. However, with the repair of overseas premiums, some overseas copper is flowing into China and other Asian markets, and recent imports have increased. - Domestic supply output remains high, and downstream consumption in the off - season shows little improvement, with purchases mainly for just - in - time needs. But consumption has resilience, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season may boost copper prices. - Low inventory supports copper prices at a high level. With favorable domestic policies and the Fed rate - cut expectation, copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly upward trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The contradiction between mining and smelting persists. As of August 15, the copper concentrate import treatment charge was - 37.67 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars/ton week - on - week, still at a low level. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 42.2 tons, down 0.7 tons month - on - month, showing a stable low - level trend. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year, with a stable growth rate [6]. - **Demand Side**: In the off - season, downstream consumption shows little improvement, with purchases mainly for just - in - time needs. As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.61%, up 1.75 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.31 percentage points year - on - year. In July, the operating rates of copper foil, copper tube, and copper strip were 77.28%, 68.94%, and 65.63% respectively. The copper foil operating rate increased due to strong demand in the lithium - battery copper foil market, while the copper tube operating rate declined as expected, and the copper strip operating rate continued to fall due to the off - season [6]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, up 5.41% week - on - week. As of August 14, the domestic copper social inventory was 125,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 12,700 tons, down 4.85% week - on - week. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, down 0.03% week - on - week. The global visible copper inventory was 601,300 tons, up 0.35% week - on - week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: With positive macro - impacts, high domestic supply, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season, copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly upward trend [7]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data**: The China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff. China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. China's July retail sales growth slowed to 3.7%, and the auto retail sales declined year - on - year. China's real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year. The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI reached a new high since February. The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, a three - year high [15]. - **Industry News**: Chile's July copper exports decreased by 0.4% year - on - year to 3.99 billion dollars. Codelco resumed partial operations at El Teniente copper mine. In June, Codelco's copper production increased year - on - year, while Escondida's production decreased significantly. In July, the proportion of Russian - origin copper in LME warehouses decreased due to the large - scale inflow of Chinese - origin copper. The sudden shutdown of Indonesia's PT Smelting smelter eased the tight copper concentrate supply. Cochilco maintained its copper price forecast at 4.30 dollars/pound for this year and next [16]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premiums and Discounts**: Last week, due to the change in the monthly spread structure to Contango, most holders were reluctant to sell, and the domestic spot supply was still tight. The spot premium of SHFE copper remained stable, but declined at the end of the week. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium continued to fall, and the New York - London copper spread remained low after a significant decline [25]. - **Long and Short Positions at Home and Abroad**: As of August 15, the SHFE copper futures position was 152,557 lots, down 2.76% week - on - week, and the average daily trading volume was 54,485 lots, up 10.21% week - on - week. As of August 8, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 21,281.52 lots, down 2.89% week - on - week. As of August 12, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 25,168 lots, up 37.91% week - on - week [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The mining - smelting contradiction persists. As of August 15, the copper concentrate import treatment charge was - 37.67 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 42.2 tons, down 0.7 tons month - on - month. The sudden shutdown of Indonesia's PT Smelting smelter slightly eased the copper concentrate supply. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year [34]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.61%, up 1.75 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.31 percentage points year - on - year. In July, the operating rates of copper foil, copper tube, and copper strip were 77.28%, 68.94%, and 65.63% respectively [36]. - **Imports and Exports**: As of August 15, the SHFE - LME copper ratio was 8.10, and the copper spot import profit and loss remained negative but the negative value narrowed. In June, China's refined copper imports were 300,500 tons, up 5.11% year - on - year; unforged copper and copper products imports were 460,000 tons, up 6.5% year - on - year [39]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, up 5.41% week - on - week. As of August 14, the domestic copper social inventory was 125,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 12,700 tons, down 4.85% week - on - week. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, down 0.03% week - on - week. The global visible copper inventory was 601,300 tons, up 0.35% week - on - week [48].