Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Monthly Report - Date: November 3, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin - Industry: Copper Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Supply - The tightness in the ore end is spreading to the smelting end. The supply tension of copper mines persists, and the TC of copper mines is still falling. The supply pressure of refined copper at home and abroad is easing. - Demand - Short - term high copper prices inhibit downstream consumption, but there are still growth expectations for medium - term copper demand. - Macro - The bullish pattern in the macro - aspect remains. Sino - US monetary policy easing expectations will continue to benefit base metals, and copper prices will strengthen [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: In October, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (82300, 89270), with the total open interest rising 11% to 594,000 lots. The spot market turned from premium to discount. Social inventories continued to accumulate slightly. LME copper and COMEX copper also showed certain trends [9]. - **Future Outlook**: The supply pressure of refined copper at home and abroad is easing. The short - term high copper price inhibits downstream consumption, but the medium - term copper demand is expected to grow. The macro - environment is favorable, and copper prices are expected to strengthen [11][13]. 3.2. Supply Side: The Tightness of Raw Materials is Spreading to the Smelting End - **Copper Concentrate Market**: The supply and demand of the global copper concentrate market remain tight. In 2025, the incremental production of global copper mines is expected to be reduced to 270,000 tons. The TC of imported copper concentrates continues to decline, and the domestic supply - demand tension of copper concentrates intensifies [14][15]. - **Cold Material Market**: The import volume of anode copper in China from January to September 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. The import volume of scrap copper increased. The supply - demand situation of the cold material market is expected to improve in November, and the processing fees are expected to rise steadily [18][19]. - **Smelter Production**: The production of smelters decreased. It is expected that the output of refined copper in China will continue to decline in November, and the output in December may increase slightly [21][22]. 3.3. Demand Side: The Peak Season of Copper Products is Not Prosperous, and the Terminal Demand Shows Resilience - **Domestic Copper Products Production**: From January to September, the output of domestic copper products increased year - on - year. In October, the operating rates of copper rods and their downstream industries were lower than expected, and the new orders were limited [27][29]. - **Automobile Market**: The production and sales of the automobile market have increased for five consecutive months, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached a record high [31][32]. - **Power System**: From January to September, the investment in the power grid increased year - on - year, and it is expected to further increase. The investment in the power source is expected to lag behind that in the power grid [37][38]. - **Home Appliance Industry**: From January to September 2025, the output and export growth rates of home appliances slowed down, and the global home appliance production and sales are expected to face downward pressure [41]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to September 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion growth rates of the real estate industry were negative, and it is expected that the real estate industry will not contribute to copper demand in the short term [43].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Benefits Released, Copper Prices Soar and Fluctuate - Report Date: November 3, 2025 - Report Source: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile under the influence of macro and fundamental factors. The main contract of Shanghai copper may operate in the range of 85,000 - 89,000 yuan. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see, or conduct short - term trading within the range [7]. - The tight supply of copper concentrate and the expectation of further tightening in the future continue. The long - term demand outlook for copper remains optimistic, but the high copper prices in the short term significantly suppress downstream demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The shortage of copper mines persists, and refined copper production continues to decline. As of October 31, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 461,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 14.11%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 42.26 US dollars per ton, reaching a historical low. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. Eight smelters were under maintenance in October, affecting the production of electrolytic copper [5]. - **Demand Side**: High copper prices suppress demand, and the operating rate declines month - on - month. As of October 30, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 60.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.69 percentage points. The high copper prices significantly suppress downstream purchasing sentiment. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate. As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.61 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.83%. As of October 30, the domestic social copper inventory was 182,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. LME copper inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.21% week - on - week [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - **Macroeconomic Data Overview**: China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year; the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a consensus; China's official manufacturing PMI in October fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1; the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will end balance - sheet reduction in December; the eurozone's Q3 GDP increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations; the US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy [16]. - **Industrial News Overview**: Teck Resources' Q3 copper production decreased year - on - year; Antofagasta's Q3 copper production decreased by 9.6% year - on - year; Trump revoked Biden's copper smelter emission limit order; ICSG warned that the copper market will face a shortage in 2026; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased year - on - year; Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% year - on - year and lowered its 2025 production forecast [18]. 3.3 Spot - Futures Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise in copper prices weakened downstream purchasing sentiment, and the spot discount of Shanghai copper widened. During the week, the spot discount of Shanghai copper stabilized at a low level, and then converged as purchasing sentiment increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed during the week. LME copper maintained a small discount, and the price difference between COMEX and LME copper remained stable [25]. - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of October 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 73.76%, while the open interest decreased by 6.29% week - on - week. As of October 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decrease of 70.40% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The shortage of copper mines persists, and processing fees have reached a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production continues to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31% [36]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of October 30, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 60.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.69 percentage points. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [40]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.61 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.83%. As of October 30, the domestic social copper inventory was 182,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. LME copper inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.21% week - on - week [43].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Copper Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the copper market, highlighting recent price movements and underlying factors affecting supply and demand dynamics [1][2][22]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Current Price Levels**: Copper prices have recently surpassed historical highs, currently trading above $11,200 per ton, but any breakout is expected to be temporary [1][2]. - **Price Drivers**: The 15% price increase from January to mid-September was primarily driven by a weaker dollar, improved growth expectations in China, and tightening physical copper markets outside the US [1][2]. - **Investor Sentiment**: The surge to $11,200 per ton was largely fueled by bullish investor sentiment, anticipating supply disruptions in copper mining [1][2]. - **Market Positioning**: The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper investment positions are at a historical high, while the US COMEX shows lower open interest, indicating potential for further inflows into COMEX contracts [1][2][18]. - **Future Supply Outlook**: Despite current tightness, the market is expected to experience a slight oversupply by 2026, with a forecasted price of $10,500 per ton [1][2][22]. - **Inventory Trends**: Global visible copper inventories have increased by 700,000 tons year-to-date, suggesting a surplus despite ongoing supply disruptions [22][25]. - **Demand Dynamics**: Chinese apparent consumption has slowed, with a year-on-year decline of 2% in September, contrasting with previous growth rates [23][24]. - **Production Growth**: Global refined copper production is up 4% year-to-date, with strong growth from marginal producers offsetting weaknesses in major Latin American mines [24][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Expectations**: The anticipated tightness in the copper market is not expected to materialize in the next six months, leading to a potential price pullback to the $10,000-$11,000 range [22][25]. - **Investor Behavior**: If visible copper inventories do not decline significantly, speculative positions in the copper market may decrease, further impacting prices [25]. - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: The current COMEX-LME price cycle may create opportunities for US imports, potentially leading to temporary price spikes if investor inflows continue [18][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the copper market, providing insights into price movements, supply-demand dynamics, and future expectations.

核心观点 基本面信息1：铜精矿加工费维持负值，矿源紧张叠加印尼格拉斯伯格矿减产，支撑铜价 。 基本面信息2：中美经贸磋商进展积极，美国取消对华加税计划，市场风险偏好回升，资金持续流入铜期货。 基本面信息3：国内社会库存增至18.45万吨，进口货源集中到港且下游提货疲软，累库抑制价格。 基本面信息4：精铜杆企业开工率降至61.55%，成品库存环比增3.36%，线缆/漆包线订单"旺季不旺" 。 观点：宏观情绪与矿端支撑推动铜价高位运行，但基本面供需双弱及累库压力下，短期或高位震荡，需新驱动突破。 铜期货盘面数据（周度） | 盘面数据 | 最新价 | 周涨跌 | 持仓 | 持仓周涨跌 | 成交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力 | 87010 | -0.81% | 258319 | -17353 | 244428 | | 沪铜指数加权 | 86996 | -0.79% | 593603 | 9991 | 444628 | | 国际铜 | 77460 | -0.9% | 4246 | -568 | 14132 | | LME铜3个月 | 10930 | 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in copper prices is attributed to a combination of trade benefits, supply chain issues, and a weaker dollar, with the market showing a short-term bullish trend while long-term outcomes depend on structural transformations in the industry [1][11][22] Supply Chain Issues - Significant supply disruptions are occurring at major mines, including Freeport-McMoRan in Indonesia and Ivanhoe in the Congo, leading to a supply gap of several hundred thousand tons that cannot be quickly replenished [3][5] - The recovery of these mines will take time, which suggests that copper prices have room to increase [3] Demand Factors - Demand for copper is being driven by essential projects in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and power transmission networks, with BHP predicting a 70% increase in demand by 2050 [5] - In China, electric vehicle sales surged by 35% in the first three quarters, significantly boosting copper demand [5] Currency Impact - The weakening of the US dollar, which has dropped over 7%, makes copper cheaper for buyers using other currencies, increasing the willingness to stockpile [7] Market Dynamics - The market is influenced by speculative trading and institutional hedging, leading to increased price volatility [12] - Key factors to monitor include the recovery progress of major mines, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the pace of infrastructure and electric vehicle development in China [14] Long-term Outlook - The industry is not expected to experience a straightforward upward trajectory; instead, it will likely see fluctuations influenced by supply, demand, and monetary conditions [11][20] - Structural trends, particularly in energy and transportation electrification, are expected to drive long-term copper demand, but short-term volatility should be approached with caution [22]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that copper prices have surpassed previous historical highs to $11,200 per ton, but this breakthrough is unlikely to be sustained due to a lack of fundamental support and reliance on investor sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Influences - The recent increase in copper prices can be divided into two phases: a 15% rise from January to mid-September supported by solid fundamentals, and a subsequent 13% rise driven mainly by investor sentiment since mid-September [3]. - Key drivers for the initial price increase included a weaker dollar, improved growth expectations in China, and tightening spot markets outside the U.S. [3]. - The recent price surge has been influenced by supply disruptions, particularly at the Grasberg mine, attracting speculative investments [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - Goldman Sachs anticipates that investor inflows may continue in the short term, particularly in the COMEX market, despite LME investor positions being at a five-year high [2][5]. - The firm projects that copper prices will retreat to the $10,000-$11,000 per ton range by early 2026, with a forecasted average price of $10,500 per ton for that year [2][4]. - The expected price correction is supported by three main factors: increasing global visible inventories, signs of weakening demand from China, and strong growth in global refined copper production [6]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Analysis - Global visible inventories are projected to increase by 700,000 tons this year, leading to a surplus in the copper market [6]. - China's apparent copper consumption has shown a year-on-year decline of 2% in September, indicating potential demand weakness [6]. - Despite supply disruptions, strong growth in refined copper production and increased scrap copper exports are expected to counterbalance supply constraints [6].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have declined by 1.67% due to weakened market sentiment following macroeconomic developments and an increase in social inventory, despite ongoing support from tight mining conditions [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - Recent easing of US-China trade tensions and a slight interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October have not improved market risk appetite, leading to declines in both US and A-shares [1] - The initial upward movement in copper prices was hindered by weak demand from downstream sectors, resulting in an expansion of the spot discount and a return to accumulation of social inventory [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite important agreements on trade issues between the US and China, cautious statements from the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts and the European Central Bank's pause on rate cuts have created uncertainty about the global monetary easing path [1] - The supply side remains challenged with ongoing disruptions in overseas mines and low inventory levels in non-US regions, while the price of London copper at $11,000 needs further confirmation [1] - Short-term expectations suggest that copper prices will remain in a high-level range of fluctuations [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Despite the Fed's hawkish stance after the rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting results being slightly below expectations, the macro - sentiment is expected to remain positive due to rate cuts, progress in economic and trade negotiations, and the domestic "15th Five - Year Plan" guidelines. The industry shows a sustained tight supply expectation for copper mines, a tightened global electrolytic copper supply in the fourth quarter, low copper inventories in China and LME, and strong seasonal copper consumption. Therefore, the copper price, which has reached a historical high, may continue to strengthen [2][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Copper Price and Position - On October 29, both the London copper price and the SHFE copper price reached historical highs, with LME copper hitting a maximum of $11,200 per ton and SHFE copper's main contract reaching a maximum of 89,270 yuan per ton. Along with the price increase, the positions of LME and SHFE copper significantly increased, and the total position reached a relatively high historical level [2][4]. 3.2 Macro - sentiment - Global trade tensions have significantly eased. After the threat of a 100% tariff on China by US President Trump in early October, China and the US held video conferences and agreed to a new round of economic and trade negotiations. The market risk preference improved as the US signed reciprocal trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and a framework trade agreement with Thailand. Although the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC summit did not result in a formal agreement, the potential reduction of existing tariffs and the continuation of economic and trade negotiations are still beneficial to the market [5]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected on October 30, with the current federal funds rate at 3.75% - 4.0%, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Although Fed Chairman Powell's stance was hawkish, the interest rate's support for the economy is expected to strengthen. With reduced inflation pressure in the US and a slowdown in the labor market, the Fed's monetary policy is not expected to tighten. Domestically, the "15th Five - Year Plan" guidelines also boosted the overall sentiment [6]. 3.3 Supply - The supply of copper mines remains tight, and the degree of tightness has intensified. Since October, companies such as Teck Resources, Antofagasta, Anglo American, and Glencore have lowered their annual production guidance. According to the data of 16 listed companies, the annual production guidance in the third - quarter report was about 300,000 tons lower than that in the second - quarter report, with the annual production guidance at about 13.2 million tons, a decrease of about 170,000 tons compared to the actual production in 2024 and a reduction of over 3% compared to the 2024 annual report guidance [10][12]. - The tight supply of copper mines has led to a decline in the copper concentrate refining fee TC and a continuous decrease in the copper concentrate inventory at domestic ports, tightening the spot supply. It has also increased the probability of production cuts and maintenance at the smelting end. Overseas, Japanese and Indonesian smelters have announced maintenance or production cuts. Domestically, the production of electrolytic copper increased significantly in the first three quarters, mainly due to increased imports of copper concentrates, recovery of domestic copper concentrate production, increased production of blister copper from scrap copper, and consumption of copper concentrate inventories. However, in the fourth quarter, the supply of raw materials for domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to face greater pressure, with a significant reduction in the year - on - year increase in production and a decrease in the quarter - on - quarter production [12][19][24]. 3.4 Demand - The global visible inventory of electrolytic copper is not low but has a structural problem, with most of it concentrated in the COMEX market, while the inventories in SHFE and LME are low. The US may impose tariffs on refined copper in 2026, so there is a need to stockpile copper to hedge against tariff risks. The positive COMEX - LME spread and the once - opened import arbitrage window also create demand for copper imports in the US, and the US copper inventory is not expected to flow back to non - US markets in the short term [27]. - Although the rising copper price has suppressed downstream consumption willingness, the current downstream consumption of copper is not in the off - season, and there are still rigid demands in new energy, data centers, and power. With the reduced substitution of refined copper by scrap copper, the domestic copper inventory is not expected to accumulate significantly during the copper price increase [27].

Group 1 - London copper prices reached a historical high this week, but analysts suggest that this upward trend may not be sustainable [1] - On Thursday, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell by 2.6%, closing at $10,897 per ton, a decrease of $287 from the previous trading day, ending a six-day rally [1] - Copper prices have increased approximately 6% this month, but remain about 10% lower than the historical peak reached at the end of July [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in copper prices was primarily driven by optimistic expectations from the US-China trade talks, although the trade situation remains unresolved [1] - Supply-side uncertainties have also played a significant role in the recent price increase, with major mining companies like Glencore lowering their production forecasts for 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that concerns over supply crises may be overstated, suggesting that any potential supply gap could be offset by strong scrap copper exports and increased production from marginal producers [2]

Summary of the Conference Call for Tongguan Copper Foil Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the copper foil industry, specifically focusing on Tongguan Copper Foil's performance and market dynamics in the high-frequency, high-speed copper foil segment and lithium battery copper foil. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tongguan Copper Foil's revenue increased year-on-year, primarily due to the rising proportion of high-end high-frequency copper foil and an increase in copper prices. However, net profit decreased quarter-on-quarter due to an increase in accounts receivable leading to credit impairment losses of approximately 7-8 million [2][4]. - For the first nine months of 2025, high-frequency high-speed PCB copper foil accounted for 30% of total shipments, with the second-generation HLP (High-Low Profile) products being the main contributor [2][11]. Production Capacity and Product Layout - As of June 30, 2025, Tongguan Copper Foil had a total production capacity of 80,000 tons, including 35,000 tons of PCB copper foil and 45,000 tons of lithium battery copper foil. In the first half of 2025, the company produced approximately 35,000 tons of copper foil, with over half being PCB copper foil [3]. - The company is transitioning lithium battery coating capacity to high-frequency high-speed copper foil, with the first production line launched by the end of June 2025. This transition is expected to enhance long-term profitability despite short-term production impacts [5][14]. Pricing Strategy - The company employs a "copper price plus processing fee" pricing model to mitigate the risks associated with copper price fluctuations. Processing fees for lithium battery copper foil are relatively stable, while those for consumer-grade PCB copper foil remain unchanged. However, processing fees for high-frequency high-speed PCB copper foil have increased due to supply shortages since Q2 2025 [6][7][8]. Market Dynamics - The market for high-frequency high-speed copper foil is currently tight, with only a few manufacturers capable of mass production. The demand for third-generation and fourth-generation copper foil is expected to surge in 2026 due to the introduction of new products [5][18]. - The company anticipates that the copper price will remain high, and it is negotiating long-term contracts for 2026, with no significant improvement in sight [6]. Customer Base and Product Validation - Tongguan Copper Foil's main customers are leading domestic and Taiwanese copper-clad laminate manufacturers. The fourth-generation HLP products have passed downstream certification and are moving from small to large-scale procurement, depending on application testing results [9][10]. - The product validation process varies by customer type, requiring end-user validation for domestic clients and only laminate manufacturer validation for Taiwanese clients [12]. Future Outlook - The company aims to increase the proportion of high-end, high-quality products, which will positively impact overall financial results. The rising share of high-value fourth-generation products is expected to boost profit margins [31]. - The lithium battery sector is currently oversupplied, but there is a growing demand for thinner copper foils, which may improve processing fees and profit margins in the future [27]. Competitive Landscape - The high-frequency high-speed copper foil market has a limited number of competitors, with significant barriers to entry due to technical and certification requirements. Major competitors include Japan's Mitsui Mining & Smelting and a few Taiwanese manufacturers [17][18]. Capital Expenditure and Expansion Plans - The company is currently focused on completing the transition of production lines and does not have immediate expansion plans. The emphasis is on optimizing production processes and ensuring quality during the transition [25]. Market Acceptance of Domestic Products - The acceptance of domestic copper foil products has improved, with domestic manufacturers gaining market share, primarily driven by Tongguan Copper Foil [26]. Additional Important Information - The company is actively adjusting prices based on market conditions and has a flexible order strategy, negotiating monthly with downstream customers [29][30].