Core Viewpoint - The global technology sector is facing a "rare earth crisis" due to a significant drop in rare earth imports from Myanmar, which has led to supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical tensions [1][9]. Group 1: Supply Chain Vulnerability - In the first nine months of 2024, China imported 31,000 tons of rare earth oxides from Myanmar, accounting for 74.9% of its total imports, highlighting the dependency on Myanmar for critical rare earth elements [3]. - The domestic production of medium and heavy rare earths in China is severely limited, with a quota of only 19,200 tons in 2024, while imports from Myanmar exceed domestic capacity by 1.6 times, fulfilling 56% of China's heavy rare earth demand [3]. - The sudden control of mining areas by the Kachin Independence Army in October 2024 led to a halt in operations, causing a surge in rare earth prices and raising concerns about supply shortages for companies heavily reliant on these imports [4]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Market Reactions - Following the disruption in supply, the stock prices of northern rare earth companies rose by 11.58% in one week, and the price of dysprosium oxide surged by 8% in the same period [4]. - A 7.9 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar in April 2025 further exacerbated the situation, with estimated export volumes dropping by 30% to 50%, and dysprosium prices nearing 2 million yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Corporate Responses and Adaptations - Chinese companies are implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of the crisis, such as reducing dysprosium usage in magnets by 30% and increasing recycling rates of rare earth materials from waste [6]. - The North Rare Earth Company is ramping up production at its Baiyun Obo mine, benefiting from exclusive mining rights amid rising prices [6]. - Companies are also exploring overseas sourcing options, including projects in the U.S. and Malaysia, although these alternatives cannot fully replace the heavy rare earths sourced from Myanmar [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Environmental Considerations - The crisis has highlighted the complex interplay between technology competition, geopolitical dynamics, and environmental responsibilities, with the U.S. attempting to leverage environmental reports to pressure Myanmar into halting exports to China [9]. - China's investment of 38 billion yuan in rare earth pollution control has become a strategic tool, promoting sustainable mining practices in Myanmar and potentially reshaping the operational landscape to align with Chinese standards [8].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's stance on the Russia-Ukraine situation has undergone a significant shift, indicating a more aggressive approach towards military support for Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia [1][2][20]. Group 1: Economic Measures - Trump announced a 100% tariff on Russia, expressing strong dissatisfaction with the country [5][20]. - Following this announcement, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude futures dropping by 1.6%, reaching a low of $67.27 per barrel [6][20]. Group 2: Military Support for Ukraine - Trump stated that the U.S. would provide advanced weaponry to NATO, with costs to be borne by NATO allies rather than U.S. taxpayers [7][12]. - A new military aid plan for Ukraine is expected to include offensive weapons, marking a departure from Trump's previous position of only supplying defensive arms [2][7]. - Trump confirmed the potential delivery of Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, emphasizing the need for such defense capabilities against Russian aggression [8][10]. Group 3: NATO and International Relations - The U.S. will coordinate with NATO to support Ukraine, with Trump indicating that NATO may choose to supply weapons to other countries as well [7][12]. - The ongoing conflict has prompted discussions about enhancing Ukraine's defense capabilities and joint procurement of military equipment with European partners [16][20]. Group 4: Ongoing Conflict and Responses - The conflict continues with Russia launching extensive airstrikes against Ukraine, utilizing over 1,800 drones and 1,200 guided bombs in a week [18][20]. - Analysts predict that new sanctions from the U.S. could have profound impacts on energy markets, international trade relations, and geopolitical dynamics [17][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced their rates for late July. The EC futures market is generally volatile. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping schedules and the progress of the cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East [4][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The rates of large - vessel markets are expected to stop falling and recover, while the rates of medium - sized vessel markets are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [26]. - **Oil Tanker Shipping**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The price of domestic refined oil may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by factors such as Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On July 14, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed significantly. The month - spread structure also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line was at 2258.04 points, up 6.35% week - on - week and down 58.43% year - on - year. The SCFIS US West line was at 1557.77 points, down 3.79% week - on - week and down 65.99% year - on - year. Different routes had different price trends [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In July, it was in a stage of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. The weekly average capacity in July, August, and September was 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in July and August compared to the previous schedule [6]. - **Tariffs**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1. The impact on China's exports and re - export trade needs attention [4]. - **Trade Data**: In June, China's exports to the US were $381.7 billion, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant improvement in the month - on - month growth rate. Exports to ASEAN were $581.9 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were $492.2 billion, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading should focus on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics, and for arbitrage, 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage rolling operations are recommended [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize vessel index, Panamax vessel index, and Supramax vessel index all showed different degrees of increase [19][20]. - **Spot Rates**: On July 11, the spot rates of various routes increased to varying degrees, such as the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route and the Australia - Qingdao coal route [22]. - **Shipping Data**: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 29.871 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.588 million tons, an increase of 938,000 tons [23]. - **Import and Export Data**: In June, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal and grain imports decreased month - on - month. The overall situation in the first half of the year showed an increase in steel exports and an increase in soybean imports [24]. - **Market Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased vessel inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax vessel market's rates continued to rise due to strong demand for coal and grain transportation and tight market capacity [26]. Oil Tanker Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and down 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year [29][30]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. The domestic refined oil price may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. Industry News - **Tariff News**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, and other countries starting from August 1. The EU has extended the suspension period of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [4][10][11]. - **Shipping Policy**: Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by Guinean ships [27]. - **Oil Market News**: Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia may lead to more sanctions, which could affect the oil market. The OPEC + has reached an over - expected production increase agreement, and the oil price is affected by multiple factors [31][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term investment rating of "oscillating with a bullish bias" for precious metals [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical issues such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US tariff policies have reignited safe - haven demand, supporting the price of gold and driving up the price of silver. The factors affecting precious metals have become more complex, and their price trends are more uncertain [2][3] - Although the better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, the US tariff policy has increased market risk - aversion. The Fed's future rate - cut expectations are more uncertain. Silver has broken through the oscillating range, and the safe - haven demand for gold has strengthened again, but its further upward momentum needs to be observed [28] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Due to the strong US economic data and the Fed's internal differences and tariff - related safe - haven factors, the market's expectation of a July rate cut has weakened, but gold has strengthened again, and US silver has broken through the oscillating range and moved upward [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Market concerns about new US sanctions on Russia have increased potential supply risks and pushed up international oil prices. The EU may join Canada and Japan in countering US tariffs [12][19] - Trump's tariff policy may push up consumer prices, while the labor market shows signs of cooling, posing a difficult problem for the Fed's policy - making [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a two - month low, while the number of continued jobless claims remained at the highest level since the end of 2021 [12][15][16] - Some Fed officials believe that the Fed may cut interest rates in July or twice this year, but policy prospects are highly uncertain [15] - Trump announced new tariff policies on 8 countries, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1 [15][19] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, and recent indicators show that economic activity continues to expand steadily [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US employment data shows a mixed picture, with some positive and some negative signs. The first - quarter GDP shrank, personal consumption growth was weak, and inflation pressure remained [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump's new tariff policies and potential sanctions on Russia have increased market uncertainty. The G7 has reached an agreement on tax issues with the US [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The improvement in the Middle East situation has led to a significant drop in oil prices, weakening US inflation pressure. The divergence in copper prices is due to US tariff policies. The US economy's resilience supports the strength of the US stock market, which is positive for silver [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to multiple factors, the RMB has appreciated significantly and then slightly depreciated, maintaining an appreciation trend. Exchange rates are not a key factor affecting precious metals [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the expectation of a July rate cut, but the tariff policy has increased risk - aversion. The future trend of precious metals needs to pay attention to the US dollar index and the relationship between the US dollar and gold [28]

美元指数企稳反弹，利率预期仍存不确定性 BCR每周金融市场回顾：美元企稳反弹，资产价格波动加剧 2025年7月第一周，全球金融市场围绕美联储政策预期、特朗普政府贸易政策、地缘政治动态等多个核 心变量展开博弈。美元指数整体震荡上行，避险与通胀预期并存推动贵金属维持强势，而原油和股市则 呈现分化走势。BCR为您梳理本周关键市场动向与趋势分析。 受特朗普加征关税威胁影响，加之市场对美联储降息路径存在分歧，美元指数本周震荡上扬，一度逼近 98关口，最终收于97.83，录得三周来首次周线级上涨，涨幅0.9%。当前，投资者密切关注美联储7月会 议纪要释放的信号，尽管部分委员支持降息，但整体态度仍显谨慎，政策前景存在较大不确定性。 澳元兑美元持续反弹，得益于澳洲联储意外维持利率不变，市场对未来政策转向的押注升温。英镑则录 得六连跌，反映出英国经济增长与通胀前景的双重压力。欧元则因欧洲央行官员偏鸽言论而承压。美元 兑日元则在周初上行后转入震荡，本周累计上涨近2%。 尽管特朗普再度挥舞关税"大棒"，全球风险偏好维持回暖态势。以英伟达为代表的科技巨头市值持续走 高，英伟达市值突破4万亿美元带动纳指与标普500指数一度刷新历史新高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Russia and the West is rooted in geopolitical issues rather than ideological differences, as stated by President Putin [1] Geopolitical Context - Putin believes that the West has consistently disrespected Russia's national strategic interests since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, despite initial assumptions that ideological differences were the main issue [1] - He emphasizes that the West's desire to gain geopolitical advantages over Russia is evident and has been a driving force in the ongoing tensions [1] NATO Expansion - Since the 1990s, NATO has allegedly made promises to Russia not to expand eastward, which Putin claims have been broken through deceitful actions by Western countries [1] - This perceived betrayal has contributed to Russia's current stance on asserting and defending its national interests as a sovereign state [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - **CFTC Positioning**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [26]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [29]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons on July 11, while the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, geopolitical disturbances, and the US proposing a 50% copper tariff, the market volatility will intensify [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall analysis of copper includes multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main player positions, with different indicators showing different trends [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact on copper prices are not elaborated [3]. Daily Summary - A table is provided to show the intermediate price, change, type, total quantity, and increase/decrease of copper in different places, but the specific data is not filled in [5]. Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, and on July 11, the copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons [2]. Bonded Warehouse Inventory - The bonded warehouse inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fees - The processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025, and specific data for China's annual supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 are provided [19][21].

01 事实上，自去年暂停北京—伦敦航班以来，英航就一直在观望。 而中国这边，免签政策的扩容动作也确实在持续推进，截至今年6月，中国的30天免签政策已经覆盖了55个国家。 但偏偏，里面没有英国。 去年，英国护照持有者虽然被纳入了中国240小时过境免签，但对更看重本国客流的外航来说，这远远不够。 也正是在去年10月，英国航空暂停了飞往北京的航班。 当时，他们用词很讲究，不是"suspend"（停飞），而是"pausing"（暂停）。 说得体面，像是一次短暂的冷静期。 在发给旅客的邮件里，英航还特意写明："我们仍将提供每日飞往上海和香港的航班服务。此次航班暂停仅涉及2024年11月至 2025年11月之间的航班安排，我们会对航班运营时刻进行持续评估。" 这两天，我看到路透社一则关于"英国航空和中国政府要免签"的新闻报道，颇为有趣。 近日，英国航空一位高管在上海公开表示，希望中国把英国公民纳入30天免签政策的国家名单，以此来增加中英航线的市场需 求。 说白了，就是在给自己留后路。 由此，这一次站出来喊话的，是英航而不是英国政府，就比较耐人寻味。 或许我们可以理解为这家欧洲老牌航司对回归北京市场，其实有一定的迫切需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The root of the conflict between Russia and the West is geopolitical rather than ideological, as previously thought [1] Group 1 - Russian President Putin stated that the underlying issues with the West stem from geopolitical factors [1]