Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: January 14, 2026 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 14, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results. Shanghai Tin rose 8%, Shanghai Silver rose over 8%, Fuel Oil rose over 6%, and Platinum rose over 3%. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) and Pure Benzene rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Lithium Carbonate fell over 3%, Caustic Soda fell over 2%, and Glass, Polysilicon, Coking Coal, and Rapeseed Meal fell over 1% [6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.29%, the SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.62%, the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.94%, and the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.09%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract remained flat, the 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract rose 0.08%, and the 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.04% [7]. 1.2 Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on January 14, in terms of capital inflows into domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Silver 2604 had an inflow of 4.395 billion yuan, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 4.248 billion yuan, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 2603 had an inflow of 3.545 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Lithium Carbonate 2605 had an outflow of 785 million yuan, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, and Alumina 2605 had an outflow of 316 million yuan [7]. 2. Market Analysis of Key Varieties 2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper opened high and moved higher, rising during the day. The US inflation data in December increased market expectations of an interest rate cut in April. In terms of supply, copper smelters are facing profit challenges, and refined copper production is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may tighten the copper supply. In terms of demand, terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper product sector is cautious, and copper inventories have increased significantly. The market is worried about the US refining copper tariff, which supports the copper price [9]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high and then declined during the day. In December 2025, production increased, and inventory started to accumulate. The demand for energy storage batteries remains strong, but the export tax rebate policy adjustment and the exchange's trading policy adjustment have affected the market. Despite the downward movement in the short term, the overall sentiment is still bullish, with the risk of CATL resuming production [11]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory increased. The market is still worried about demand, and the global crude oil market is in a state of oversupply. The situation in Iran and Venezuela may affect the supply, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [12][13]. 2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, and the expected production in January 2026 also decreased. The downstream demand is weak in the north and average in the south. The situation in Venezuela may affect the raw material supply and production cost of domestic asphalt. It is recommended to focus on the raw material shortage of domestic refineries and consider reverse arbitrage [14][16]. 2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP is at a low level, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a medium - low level. The cost is affected by the international situation, and the supply is increasing with new capacity. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The upward space of PP is expected to be limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. 2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The cost is affected by the international situation, and new capacity has been put into production. The downstream demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19]. 2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate is increasing, but the downstream demand is weak, and the export is average. The social inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. With the cancellation of export tax rebates, the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened low and then adjusted downward nearly 2% during the day. The supply of imported coal decreased, while domestic production increased. Coking enterprises and steel mills are replenishing inventory. Despite the short - term adjustment, Coking Coal is expected to remain strong in the long term [22]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened low and rose over 2% during the day. The daily production has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The agricultural demand is increasing, but the industrial demand is weakening due to the approaching Spring Festival. The short - term strength of urea is expected to be difficult to sustain, and it will be adjusted at a high level [23].

Group 1 - The global precious metals market is at a turning point, with gold expected to rise to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $100 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026 [1][2] - Key drivers of this bullish trend include heightened geopolitical risks, supply shortages in the physical market, and renewed doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which have collectively increased the premium on safe-haven assets [1][2] - Silver is anticipated to outperform gold due to the tightening conditions in the physical market, supported by the uncertainty surrounding the "Section 232" tariff rulings on critical minerals [3] Group 2 - Basic metals may gradually replace precious metals as the main players in the commodity market cycle, with aluminum and copper expected to show resilience in the second half of 2026 due to strong industrial demand [2][3] - Tactical selling may occur due to policy fluctuations, but each dip should be viewed as a buying opportunity within the overall bullish trend [4]

Group 1 - Nomura Securities indicates that the Philippines' economic outlook is weakening due to government corruption scandals and an expanding negative output gap, suggesting that the monetary easing cycle is not over, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2026 [1] - The Carlyle Group notes that Japan's bond yields have risen to multi-year highs and the yen continues to depreciate, reflecting an economy emerging from long-term deflation, with a gradual normalization of interest rates being a positive development [1] - Mizuho Securities highlights that Japanese investors' allocation to overseas bonds is highly dependent on the Bank of Japan's interest rate path, with recent data showing a net sell-off of long-term foreign bonds [1] Group 2 - Analysts from XS.com report that the U.S. has shifted its stance on negotiations with Iran, increasing geopolitical risks, although the dollar's response to these events has been limited [2] - Westpac economists note that the U.S. Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Powell marks a new phase of government pressure on the central bank, but Powell enjoys broad support, indicating limited coercive power from Trump [2] - Columbia Threadneedle Investments emphasizes that threats against Powell regarding the Federal Reserve's budget could pose a direct threat to market sentiment, raising concerns about the politicization of the central bank [2][3] Group 3 - MFS Investment Management warns that threats to the Federal Reserve's independence represent a significant risk, highlighting the urgency for global asset diversification [3] - The market is currently returning to fundamental trading, but ongoing political pressure on the Federal Reserve's independence remains a concern, as indicated by Trump's critical remarks about Powell [3]

一、从"外交摩擦"到"风险定价" 过去一段时间，市场对中东局势的关注度明显升温。但真正让情绪发生质变的，是美国总统特朗普周二抛出的那 句极具象征意味的话——"帮助正在路上"。 在特朗普公开喊话伊朗抗议者、宣布暂停所有官方会谈后，原本停留在外交施压层面的博弈，已被市场重新定价 为一场可能失控的地缘风险。阿萨交易学社分析师Zero指出，这种变化并不只体现在新闻标题里，也迅速反映在 油价和避险资产的波动中，黄金自然再次被推到了聚光灯下。 特朗普的表态释放了一个信号：美方在伊朗问题上的耐心正在下降。当白宫内部密集讨论应对选项、军事"强硬选 项"被反复提及，市场最不喜欢的不确定性正在上升。 二、 为什么黄金会提前反应？ 随着特朗普对中东局势的强硬发声，全球避险情绪再度紧绷。今天，阿萨带你深度拆解：在地缘政治与通胀预期 的双重驱动下，黄金的交易逻辑发生了哪些本质变化？ 阿萨在这里要提醒大家需要警惕一种常见误区：并非所有地缘政治冲突都能推动金价持续单边走高。 溢价回吐风险： 短期情绪冲击和中长期趋势之间存在差异。如果局势迅速降温，或者重回谈判框架，黄金的避险 溢价同样可能快速回吐。 博弈心理： 当前黄金走强，更多是对"风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, reaching a high before retreating, but maintained a bullish outlook due to a lack of sustained bearish expectations in the fundamentals [1][11]. Market Performance - On January 13, gold opened at $4603.39 per ounce, peaked at $4634.43, and closed at $4586.43, with a daily range of $64.69 and a decline of $16.96, or 0.37% [1][11]. - The market was influenced by a cautious sentiment, with the unexpected cooling of the U.S. December CPI leading traders to bet on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in April, which initially pushed gold prices to a new high [3][13]. Economic Indicators - Key economic data to watch includes U.S. November retail sales, PPI, and third-quarter current account figures, with expectations leaning towards a bearish impact on gold prices [5][15]. - If the economic results exceed expectations, gold may face a pullback to support levels, while weaker results could lead to increased volatility [6][15]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical risks and rising central bank purchases, alongside increasing fiscal debt, are contributing to a solid foundation for gold's upward trajectory [6][15]. - The market anticipates approximately two interest rate cuts later this year, reinforcing the bullish sentiment for gold [6][15]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold has regained strength, surpassing previous resistance levels, and if this momentum continues, it could open up a new bull market with potential gains exceeding 30% [9][18]. - Short-term support levels are identified at $4590 and $4560, with resistance at $4640 and $4675 [10][19]. Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for gold in the first half of the year, suggesting that the price could reach $5000, viewing it as a psychological barrier rather than a ceiling [7][16]. - The current market dynamics reflect a collective vote on the trust in the old world order and the reset of the monetary system, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment [7][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of protests in Iran due to economic stagnation and inflation, exacerbated by U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, and the potential geopolitical risks that may arise from these events [1]. Group 1: Economic Impact - By the end of 2025, Iran's currency depreciated significantly, leading to inflation and widespread protests in Tehran, with demands for political reform and reduced military spending [1]. - Iran's oil production in 2025 was over 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 3.5%-4% of global supply, with about 90% of its oil exports going to China, which represents around 15% of China's total imports [17][18]. - The protests and potential military conflicts could disrupt Iran's chemical and oil exports, particularly affecting methanol and urea production, which are critical for global supply chains [6][19]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - Iran's methanol imports to China reached approximately 1.27 million tons in 2025, with Iran being the largest supplier, contributing around 60% of China's methanol imports [3]. - The article highlights that Iran is the third-largest high-sulfur oil exporter in the Middle East, supplying about 17% of China's fuel oil imports, which could be impacted by escalating geopolitical tensions [12]. - If military conflicts arise, the supply of methanol and other chemical products from Iran could decline significantly, leading to price increases in the international market [7][20]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The article notes that external forces, particularly the U.S. and Israel, may influence the protests in Iran, with potential military interventions being a concern [1][6]. - The situation in Iran could lead to a significant disruption in global oil supply, especially if the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil, is affected, which could result in oil prices rising by as much as $40 per barrel [12][18]. - The potential for renewed military conflict between Israel and Iran could mirror past incidents, leading to further instability in the region and impacting global energy markets [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - Citi's report indicates that Brent crude oil prices, which were around $60 to $61 per barrel last week, are expected to rise above the previously forecasted range of $55 to $65 per barrel due to increasing geopolitical risks related to Russia/Ukraine and Iran [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - Citi has raised its 0 to 3-month target price for Brent crude oil from approximately $65 per barrel to $70 per barrel, driven by rising supply disruption risks and potential increases in geopolitical risk premiums related to Iran and Russia/Ukraine [1] - The report highlights that during the Iran/Israel conflict in mid-2025, Brent oil prices surged from a low of $60 per barrel to $77 per barrel, suggesting that current pressures on Iran are more severe than during that period [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current oil supply-demand balance is looser compared to the past, and Citi's baseline view is that a rapid increase in oil prices would provide hedging opportunities for producers [1] - The report notes that U.S. President Trump aims to lower oil prices, and if significant supply disruptions occur, OPEC+ could still increase production starting in the second quarter of 2026 [1]

美国总统与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之间的敌意由来已久。毕竟，特朗普去年就曾威胁要解雇鲍威尔（尽管最 终并未付诸行动）。本周，美国司法部对鲍威尔展开刑事调查的消息似乎进一步激化了事态。但这究竟是试图 破坏美国央行所谓的独立性？还是仅仅是个人恩怨升级？ 我们目前尚不清楚是否存在与美联储翻新成本相关的合法法律诉讼。如果确实存在，那么将其称为蓄意破坏美 联储独立性的举动未免有些言过其实。 贵金属本周持续走高，黄金被视为应对不断变化的地缘政治和政策不确定性的理想"不确定性对冲工具"。由于 特朗普似乎正在考虑美国介入伊朗的可能性，这使得黄金继续受到投资者青睐。本周黄金价格创下历史新高 （约4634美元），市场预期美国今年将下调利率，这也进一步提升了黄金的吸引力。尽管前景依然看涨，但如 果地缘政治风险开始减弱，金价可能会进入盘整阶段。需要关注的支撑位在4570美元和4420美元附近，阻力位 在4640美元。 伊朗持续不断的抗议活动可能导致石油供应中断，加上美国可能介入，推高了油价，美国原油价格突破每桶60 美元。因此，至少目前来看，伊朗可能造成的供应中断的影响超过了委内瑞拉供应增加的影响。由于预计今年 全球石油市场将处于供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, driven by U.S. inflation data and geopolitical uncertainties, while highlighting the role of the company in providing investment insights and strategies to capitalize on market movements [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 13, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,634 per ounce before retracting, with the final close at $4,585.95 per ounce, reflecting a 0.26% decline [2]. - Silver prices also saw significant movement, hitting a historical peak of $89.12 per ounce before closing at $86.91 per ounce, marking a 2.14% increase [2]. - The U.S. inflation report indicated a year-on-year CPI of 2.7% for December, with core CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month, which was below market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and U.S. relations, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. - The potential for military action and new tariffs on countries trading with Iran has further escalated concerns, providing additional support for gold prices [5]. - The situation in Ukraine and other geopolitical events have also contributed to a strong demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver [6]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The article emphasizes that despite short-term volatility, the bullish trend for gold is likely to continue, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks [8]. - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming U.S. retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which are critical indicators of economic resilience and inflation trends [8]. - The company offers real-time communication with analysts to help investors navigate market conditions and optimize their investment strategies [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in geopolitical risks has led to an increase in gold prices, with the gold ETF (518800) rising over 0.7% and a net inflow of over 1.6 billion yuan in the past 10 days [1]. Geopolitical Risks - Multiple regions are experiencing heightened geopolitical risks, which have increased the risk premium for gold [1]. - Investment institutions are engaging in "Donroe trade," anticipating that U.S. international interventions may extend beyond Venezuela to Colombia, Cuba, and Greenland, prompting early trading in related financial products [1]. Gold Price Outlook - In the medium to long term, the central price of gold is expected to rise, suggesting that investors may consider participating in future pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1]. - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETF (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETF (517400) that covers the entire gold industry chain [1].