Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES gives a ★★★ rating to silicon iron, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity; a ☆☆☆ rating to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and silicon manganese, suggesting a short-term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market has a weak domestic demand and is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The iron ore market has increasing supply pressure and short-term market uncertainty, and is expected to fluctuate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and their price rebound space is not overly optimistic under inventory pressure [4][5] - The silicon manganese market has limited improvement in fundamentals, with manganese ore prices likely to decline further [6] - The silicon iron market has acceptable overall demand and a slight decrease in inventory, with attention paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand and production both declined, and the inventory reduction slowed down; hot-rolled coil's demand, production, and inventory all decreased slightly; the pig iron output is still relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation is still fermenting; the market sentiment provides some support, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upward space [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment volume has declined, the domestic arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased; the terminal demand is weak in the off-season, the steel mill profitability rate has decreased, and the pig iron output has changed little; the market has certain policy expectations, and the external geopolitical risk has increased [3] Coke - The pig iron output has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts; the coking profit has shrunk, and the daily coking output has declined; the overall inventory has decreased slightly, and the traders' purchasing willingness is still low; the price has rebounded due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, but the rebound space is limited [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal mine output has declined slightly, and the spot auction market is still weak; the terminal inventory has decreased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly; the price has rebounded due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, but the rebound space is limited [5] Silicon Manganese - Driven by rebar, the price has increased; a large steel mill in the north has a lower tender inquiry price; the inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly output has started to increase; the manganese ore price is under pressure, and the manganese mine's price support intention has increased [6] Silicon Iron - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price has increased; the pig iron output has decreased slightly; the export demand is stable, and the secondary demand is high; the supply has decreased, the market transaction level is average, and the inventory has decreased slightly [7]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 264500 | 810 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32780 | 80 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 310 | 120 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 23916 | -676 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 2765 | -974 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2260 | -105 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7107 | -265 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 415 | -105 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6760 | -14 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 265300 | -300 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 265190 | -490 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 1910 | 1760 LME锡升贴水(0- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 16, the JM2509 contract closed at 795.5, up 2.84%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 708. The coking coal mine capacity utilization rate has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, the cumulative import growth rate has decreased, there are signs of marginal improvement in supply, and the clean coal inventory continues to increase. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 16, the J2509 contract closed at 1371.0, up 1.90%. The third round of coke price cut has been implemented. In the first five months of 2025, China's imports and exports to the five Central Asian countries reached 286.42 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, reaching a record high for the same period. Fundamentally, there are signs of marginal improvement in raw material supply, and the hot metal output has declined from a high level. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 795.50 yuan/ton, up 21.00 yuan [2]. - J main contract closing price: 1371.00 yuan/ton, up 21.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume: 717,718.00 hands, up 28,840.00 hands [2]. - J futures contract holding volume: 55,902.00 hands, down 1,318.00 hands [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 JM contracts: - 22,629.00 hands, down 2,410.00 hands [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 J contracts: 96.00 hands, down 265.00 hands [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 15.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan [2]. - J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 21.50 yuan/ton, up 4.50 yuan [2]. - JM main contract basis: 184.50 yuan/ton, down 21.00 yuan [2]. - J main contract basis: 74.00 yuan/ton, down 21.50 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Meng 5 raw coal: 708.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 116.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1,140.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 3.3613 million tons, up 87,200 tons [2]. - Clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 2.5147 million tons, up 64,100 tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 57.36%, down 3.23 percentage points [2]. - Raw coal output (monthly): 40.328 million tons, up 1.3974 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume (monthly): 3.604 million tons, down 179,000 tons [2]. - Daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 187,800 tons, down 2,100 tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 5.4473 million tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal total inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample, weekly): 7.9807 million tons, down 208,500 tons [2]. - Coking coal available days of independent coking enterprises (full sample, weekly): 12.32 days, up 0.06 days [2]. - Coking coal import volume (monthly): 0.88934 million tons, up 25,970 tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 3.92616 million tons, down 235,310 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 2.5869 million tons, down 81,600 tons [2]. - Coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample, weekly): 1.2571 million tons, down 13,000 tons [2]. - Coke inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 6.4284 million tons, down 29,600 tons [2]. - Coke available days of 247 sample steel mills (weekly): 11.62 days, up 0.04 days [2]. - Coke and semi - coke export volume (monthly): 0.00 tons, down 55,000 tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 73.96%, down 1.40 percentage points [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 27.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Coke output (monthly): 4.238 million tons, up 78,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 8.655 million tons, up 53,100 tons [2]. Industry News - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have sharply increased. Gold prices have risen, but the increase is often short - term and impulsive. In the medium and long term, factors such as the repeated US tariff policies, the expansion of the US fiscal gap, and the weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury bond credit are driving the upward trend of gold prices [2]. - At the end of May, the broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The narrow money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [2]. - The "Implementation Plan for the Special Action to Boost Consumption in Guangzhou (Draft for Comment)" is open for comments, which mentions optimizing real estate policies, completely canceling purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price restrictions, and reducing the down - payment ratio and interest rate of loans [2].

的影响，部分非一体化冶炼厂选择减产。需求端，不锈钢厂利润压缩，300系转产其他产品；新能源汽车需 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 求继续爬升，但占比较小影响有限。近期供需两弱，下游按需采购，国内库存下降；但海外库存持稳。技 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 术面，持仓增量空头偏强，预计震荡偏弱。操作上，建议暂时观望，或轻仓做空。 免责声明 沪镍产业日报 2025-06-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 119690 | -230 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -190 | -50 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15110 | 5 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 79723 | -2762 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -7785 | -1305 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | ...

原油：伊以冲突爆发，油价触及涨停 正信期货原油周报 20250616 研究员：付馨苇 投资咨询编号：Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 目 录 CONTENTS 原油价格分析 1 2 原油供应端分析 3 原油需求端分析 4 原油库存端分析 5 原油供需平衡总结 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Sell on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Low-level oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward movement [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong oscillation [6] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Rebound [6] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybeans No.2): Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand situation in various industries is complex, with some industries facing supply surpluses and weak demand, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market trends are diverse, including downward pressure, oscillation, and rebound opportunities [2][4][6][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments are rising, but iron water production is falling, and port inventories are decreasing. The valuation is relatively high, and prices may decline if iron water production falls below 2.4 million tons. Hold existing short positions and consider adding on rebounds [2] - Coking coal and coke: High supply and weak demand persist. Coke production costs are falling, but steel mills are proposing price cuts, and inventories are increasing. The market follows the trend of finished products [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Entering the off-season, demand is weakening, production is decreasing, and inventory decline is slowing. Total demand is expected to show a front-loaded pattern, and prices are likely to fall [2] - Glass: There is no substantial positive news. Production capacity is slightly decreasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is at a high level. Long-term demand recovery is difficult [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating, with attention paid to downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. Market sentiment is affected by policies and economic data, and long positions in stock indices are recommended [2][4] - Treasury bonds: Yields are stable, and the central bank is conducting reverse repurchase operations. The market is in a narrow rebound, and light long positions are recommended [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank purchases, currency credit, and geopolitical risks are influencing prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [4][6] - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by various factors and expected to oscillate strongly [6] Light Industry - Pulp: Spot prices are falling, costs are decreasing, and demand is in the off-season. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Logs: Port shipments are increasing, demand is relatively strong, and supply pressure is easing. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: Palm oil production and exports are high, and inventories are increasing. Soybean oil is under pressure from high supply, but the market is boosted by biofuel policies. Prices are expected to rebound [6] - Meal: The USDA report is neutral, and the market is affected by weather, trade negotiations, and supply. Prices are expected to rebound, but the upside is limited [8] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The market is in a weak downward trend, with a loose supply-demand pattern and weak consumption. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8] - Rubber: Supply is expected to increase, demand is decreasing, and the market is in a pattern of supply exceeding demand. Prices are under pressure and expected to oscillate [9] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is increasing, but demand may be affected by polyester load. The short-term supply-demand pattern is tight, and prices follow oil prices [9] - PTA: Supply is rising, demand is weakening, and prices follow costs [9] - MEG: Supply and demand are showing a benign structure, and prices are supported. Attention should be paid to polyester load changes [9] - PR: Cost support is strong, and the market may adjust strongly. Follow-up from downstream is to be watched [9] - PF: Affected by oil prices and downstream demand, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: June 16, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term geopolitical risk in the Middle East may cool down quickly, and the silver price surge driven by pure funds is difficult to sustain. Investors are advised to focus on the long - gold and short - silver arbitrage strategy after the silver momentum weakens [4]. - Gold's medium - term upward trend remains good, but its volatility has increased. Investors are recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions, avoiding full - position chasing, random top - guessing, or blind short - selling. Bearish - minded traders can consider the "long - gold and short - silver" arbitrage trade [4][6]. - The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but the short - term sharp rise in the gold price and the extremely high price - to - earnings ratio indicate significantly enhanced price volatility [6]. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - US economic data support the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process as soon as possible, which weakens the US dollar index and benefits gold. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased significantly, driving the London gold price above $3400 per ounce. However, the possibility of a large - scale war in the Middle East is low, and the geopolitical risk may cool down rapidly [4]. - In early June, speculative funds aggressively bought silver, causing the London silver price to rise to $36.9 per ounce, and the annual increase in the silver price exceeded that of the gold price. But this kind of price surge is difficult to sustain [4]. Medium - term Market - In April, Trump's tariff measures triggered a global financial market shock, and multiple hedging demands drove the gold price to soar. Although the gold price has回调 from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains intact [6]. - Trump's determination to promote domestic and foreign reforms remains unchanged, and the uncertainty in the market will continue. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will persist, but the price volatility has also increased [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including the Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of the Shanghai futures index against the Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][12] III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Diplomatic issues related to the Iranian nuclear problem: Trump stated that the US is committed to resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomacy, but the IAEA's 35 - nation council announced that Iran violated nuclear non - proliferation obligations, and Israel may attack Iran if Iran refuses the US proposal [18]. - US economic data: The initial jobless claims in the US last week remained at an eight - month high, and the May PPI increase was less than expected. These data support the Fed to resume interest - rate cuts soon [18]. - Trump's tariff warnings: Trump warned that he might raise automobile tariffs soon, and the US Commerce Department will impose tariffs on various steel - made household appliances from June 23 [19]

印度金银珠宝协会副会长Aksha Kamboj称："由于以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势持续存在，金价正在攀 升，目前还看不到明确的解决方案。"她指出，虽然黄金在目前的水平上可能出现一些获利了结，但地 缘政治风险和即将召开的美联储会议可能会使其价格保持高位。 在今年之前，黄金、美元和美国国债长期以来一直是投资者在地缘政治紧张或市场压力时期寻求的主要 避风港。甚至在特朗普去年11月当选之前，他在竞选期间对关税的强硬言论就已促使全球投资者涌入黄 金，作为美元储备之外的多元化选择。 据道琼斯市场数据，最活跃的黄金期货合约上周五收于创纪录的3452.80美元，为今年第24次刷新历史 高点。相比之下，自4月关税动荡以来，"抛售美国"交易的担忧笼罩全球市场。美元指数上周五上涨 0.3%，但年初至今仍下跌9.5%。 美国国债面临的压力源于对美国政府巨额债务负担的关注，以及共和党税收和支出法案下的近期财政赤 字预测——该法案目前已提交参议院。由投资策略师迈克尔·哈特尼特（Michael Hartnett）领导的美国 银行全球研究团队称，美国36万亿美元国债的利息支付每年超过1万亿美元。 随着以伊冲突驱动的中东局势新一轮升温刺激了避 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the recent military actions by Israel against Iran, which have triggered significant market reactions, including a surge in gold and oil prices [1][5][3] - Following the military actions, gold prices rose above $3410 per ounce, reflecting a strong market response to the heightened geopolitical risks [1][5] - The ongoing instability in the Middle East has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as evidenced by the three-day consecutive rise in gold prices following the recent conflicts [5][8] Group 2 - Historical context indicates that geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, have previously led to a rise in gold prices due to concerns over the dollar's status as a "weaponized" currency [6][12] - The articles outline two significant phases of gold price increases linked to geopolitical tensions: the first phase during the Israel-Palestine conflict in October 2023 and the second phase anticipated in April 2024 [8][20] - The analysis suggests that the current gold price trends are influenced not only by geopolitical risks but also by broader factors such as U.S. dollar credibility, U.S. debt crises, and military and technological dominance [8][12][20] Group 3 - A new index, the Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI), has been introduced to quantify the hidden risks associated with the ongoing global order restructuring, which is believed to significantly impact gold pricing [16][20] - The GIORI index has shown a rapid increase since March 2021, indicating a prolonged period of rising gold prices, with projections suggesting it may reach a peak by April 2025 [19][20] - Current geopolitical complexities are compared to the 1970s, suggesting that if gold prices surpass historical resistance levels, they could enter a new phase of significant upward movement [20]

贵金属周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 中东紧张局势升级，金价再度走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周黄金价格震荡上行，COMEX期金主力合约再度站上 3450美元/盎司上方，最高至3468美元/盎司，创近两个月 新高。主要因为中东地缘局势恶化，以色列空袭伊朗，再 次引发市场对中东地区爆发更广泛冲突的担忧，资金纷纷 涌向避险资产。而白银价格则呈震荡偏弱走势，COMEX期 银主 ...