Group 1: Market Overview - The precious metals market is experiencing its largest adjustment of the year, primarily due to a potential easing of geopolitical tensions and profit-taking after a significant rally [1] - Since September, international gold prices have increased by $1,000, leading to considerable profits for long positions, which prompted profit-taking as geopolitical risks did not escalate further [1] - The optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market is a collective response across all varieties, reminiscent of the aggressive market enthusiasm seen in 2011 [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Economic Indicators - After October, there has been a continuous reduction in Shanghai gold futures positions, while COMEX holdings have been halted due to government shutdowns, indicating a shift in the driving force behind gold prices to ETF funds [1] - The marginal driving force for gold prices is weakening, suggesting an increased probability of short-term adjustments [1] - Recent U.S. CPI data was slightly below expectations, clearing obstacles for potential interest rate cuts in the remaining part of the year, while the quality and independence of data have been challenged due to government shutdowns [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - New rounds of negotiations between China and the U.S. in Malaysia have led to preliminary agreements, which could reduce trade tensions and negatively impact gold prices in the short term [2] - The EU's support for U.S. proposals regarding a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with new sanctions on Russia, adds to market volatility, indicating that geopolitical risks may temporarily weigh on gold prices [2] - Despite short-term negative impacts, the complexity of long-term geopolitical dynamics will continue to support gold's safe-haven demand [2] Group 4: Investment Products - Bosera Gold ETF and its linked funds track the performance of gold prices in RMB through investments in gold spot contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, providing investors with diverse investment options in gold [3] - Investors can purchase linked funds through official channels starting from a minimum of 1 RMB, enhancing accessibility for a broader range of investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for gold prices has reversed, with Citigroup lowering its 0-3 month target price from $4000 to $3800, anticipating a continued downtrend in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price Decline - The decline in gold prices is primarily driven by two core factors: a decrease in geopolitical risk expectations, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, and the presence of $17 trillion in unrealized profits in the market, which could lead to significant selling pressure [3][5]. - The macro environment has eased, with the U.S. government's strategy shifting from confrontation to trade negotiations with multiple countries, reducing concerns over global trade tensions [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Implications - The report estimates that a mere 2% adjustment in the $17 trillion of unrealized profits could release gold supply equivalent to twice the annual production of global mines, creating substantial downward pressure on prices [5][6]. - The potential for year-end asset rebalancing could lead to significant selling pressure, overshadowing any demand for physical gold [6]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Despite the short-term bearish outlook, two key catalysts could influence a rebound in gold prices: the personnel changes and monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve, and the sustainability of the U.S. economy and stock market [7][11]. - The long-term strategic value of gold as a hedge against geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns remains strong, although the current price point of $4000 per ounce is not seen as attractive for re-entry by asset allocators [7].

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The core reason for the significant drop in gold prices is the progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations, which has led to a reduction in market risk aversion and a shift of investors towards riskier assets [2] - The rapid increase in gold prices prior has resulted in substantial profit-taking by investors, exacerbated by technical selling pressure due to optimistic trade sentiment [3] - Current market conditions show strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut, but this expectation has already been priced in, providing limited support for gold prices [4] Group 2: Market and Macro Environment Changes - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has slightly increased, reflecting enhanced market risk appetite, while the U.S. dollar index has decreased slightly but failed to support gold prices [5] - Market focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and U.S. consumer confidence data, which will influence future gold price movements [6] Group 3: Future Price Trends and Investment Suggestions - Short-term factors such as progress in China-U.S. trade talks, strong global stock markets, and rising U.S. Treasury yields are likely to continue suppressing gold prices, leading institutions to lower long-term expectations [7] - Long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, global central bank gold purchases, and the potential for a long-term decline in the U.S. dollar may still provide support for gold prices [8] Group 4: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shifted from a consolidation phase to a bearish trend after breaking below the previous week's low, indicating a short-term market shift towards weakness [9] - Key resistance is identified at around 4070, where the 5-day and 20-day moving averages intersect, while support levels to watch are at 3971 and 3960 [9] - On the four-hour chart, the previous support zone of 4010-4000 has been broken, and the market should monitor whether this area will act as resistance moving forward [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to improved US-China trade relations, which has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while market focus shifts to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - On October 27, gold prices fell by 3.24%, trading at $3,971.08 per ounce, following a nine-week rally that saw prices peak above $4,300 due to geopolitical risks and monetary easing expectations [1]. - The recent drop in gold prices is linked to a preliminary agreement reached between US and Chinese officials during the ASEAN meetings, indicating a potential extension of the trade truce and reduced risks of renewed trade tensions [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming week is significant for the gold market, with multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, expected to announce interest rate decisions, alongside the release of key economic data such as the September core PCE price index and Q3 US GDP figures [2]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve are supported by weaker-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) data, which may limit further declines in gold prices [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken below the $4,000 support level, with further downward movement expected, targeting levels around $3,945 [2][4]. - The current trading strategy suggests a focus on short positions, with recommendations to sell on rebounds near the $4,004-$4,010 range, while potential long positions could be considered near $3,945-$3,950 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term oil price is expected to rebound with oscillations, but the upside space remains limited. Supply - side geopolitical risk premiums and OPEC+ production cuts provide support, while long - term supply increases and demand substitution risks exist. Demand - side Asian seasonal restocking is nearing an end, and narrowing refinery profits in Europe and the United States suppress processing volume growth. Although the oil price may briefly break through the previous high under certain circumstances, it lacks continuous upward momentum due to the slowdown in global economic growth and non - OPEC supply elasticity [5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On October 24, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil futures main contract rose by 5.2 yuan/barrel (1.13%) to 464.9 yuan/barrel, continuing the recent upward oscillation trend. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 61.75 dollars/barrel and 65.26 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread changed from - 0.71 dollars/barrel to 0.01 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened by 0.72 dollars to 3.52 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive three spread narrowed from - 5.8 yuan/barrel to - 4.8 yuan/barrel [2]. - In the week of October 21, Brent crude oil speculative net long positions were significantly reduced by 57,085 contracts to 52,521 contracts, a recent low, and diesel net long positions decreased by 11,375 contracts, indicating weakening confidence in continuous oil price increases and weakening refined oil demand expectations [3]. (2) Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The pipeline fire in Iraq's Zubair Oilfield did not affect production, with September oil exports at a high of 102 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's August oil export value increased by 7% year - on - year. Russia's Ryazan refinery stopped a key processing unit due to a drone attack, which may affect refined oil exports but not crude oil production. The US opened Alaska for drilling, and India's Reliance Industries increased crude oil purchases, suggesting potential non - OPEC supply increases [4]. - Demand side: India's October services PMI preliminary value of 60.7 supported Asian crude oil import demand. However, the expected reduction in China's refined oil retail price limit may suppress refinery restocking willingness. Indonesia's plan to implement the E10 gasoline policy in 2027 may suppress traditional gasoline demand in the long term. The reduction of US diesel speculative long positions reflected weakening industrial demand expectations, and there was no significant rebound signal in EIA apparent demand [4]. - Inventory side: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, indicating limited delivery storage capacity pressure. US Cushing inventory decreased recently, but EIA commercial crude oil inventory was still at a seasonal high, and the overall OECD inventory level suppressed the upward movement of oil prices [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring (1) Crude Oil - Futures prices: On October 24, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price was 464.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.13% from the previous day. WTI was 61.44 dollars/barrel, down 0.50%, and Brent was 64.92 dollars/barrel, down 0.52% [7]. - Spot prices: Most crude oil spot prices showed an upward trend, with the Brent spot price rising by 1.61%, the Oman spot price rising by 1.37%, etc. [7]. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread increased by 149.30% to 0.35 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 36.79% to 3.83 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 0.85% to 3.48 dollars/barrel [7]. - Other assets: The US dollar index increased by 0.01%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.79%, the DAX index increased by 0.13%, and the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [7]. - Inventory and开工: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.23%, Cushing inventory decreased by 3.50%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.20%. The US refinery weekly开工 rate increased by 3.38%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 3.97% [7]. (2) Fuel Oil - Futures prices: On October 24, 2025, the FU fuel oil futures price was 2,814 yuan/ton, up 2.25% from the previous day, the LU was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 0.97%, and NYMEX fuel oil was 239.7 cents/gallon, up 0.57% [8]. - Spot prices: Some fuel oil spot prices increased, such as the high - sulfur 180 in Singapore rising by 2.28%, and the Russian M100 to - shore price rising by 4.75% [8]. - Paper - cargo prices: The high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) increased by 2.51% [8]. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread data was not provided, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 7.03% [8]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 8.12% [8]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation (1) Supply - On October 26, the fire in an oil pipeline in Iraq's Zubair Oilfield did not affect production, with the current daily output remaining at 400,000 barrels. Iraq's September total oil exports were 102.15 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's August oil export value increased by 7% year - on - year [9][10]. - On October 24, Russia's Ryazan refinery stopped a key processing unit after a drone attack. India's Reliance Industries bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East and the US. Italy's Eni Group raised its 2025 oil and gas production guidance, expecting an output of 171 - 172 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 and about 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter. The US announced the opening of the Alaska coastal plain for oil drilling [10]. (2) Demand - Indonesia plans to implement a policy in 2027 to make the bio - ethanol content in gasoline reach 10% [11]. (3) Inventory - On October 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, the low - sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,960 tons, and the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,500 tons [12]. (4) Market Information - As of the week of October 21, diesel speculative net long positions decreased by 11,375 contracts to 45,766 contracts, and Brent crude oil speculative net long positions decreased by 57,085 contracts to 52,521 contracts [13]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky called for sanctions on all Russian oil companies, shadow fleets, and oil terminals. China's refined oil retail price limit is likely to be reduced on October 27 [13]. - India's October services PMI preliminary value was 60.7 [13]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [14][16][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | Dollar | Sideways | | US Stocks | Sideways | | A-Shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Slightly Bearish and Sideways | [31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown continues, and the macro data is in a vacuum. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, supporting two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market has fully priced in the cuts, and the downside space for US bond yields is limited. The 10 - month Fed interest rate meeting is coming up, and the future interest rate cut path and balance - sheet reduction rhythm are the focus of market games. The domestic market is boosted by macro events and themes, deviating from the economic fundamentals in the short term [6]. - Global market risk appetite continues to recover, with most global stock markets rising. The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level, and major currencies show different trends. Global major national 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuate. The commodity futures and spot markets show a divergent trend [8][12][17][29]. - Different asset classes are expected to show different trends next week. Gold lacks upward momentum and has a callback risk; the dollar is expected to fluctuate; US stocks are supported but volatile; A - shares are affected by top - level planning and liquidity; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate slightly bearishly [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The US government shutdown persists, and the macro data is in a vacuum. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, supporting two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market has fully priced in the cuts, and the downside space for US bond yields is limited. The upcoming 10 - month Fed interest rate meeting will focus on the future interest rate cut path and balance - sheet reduction rhythm. The short - term market is more affected by macro news, and the market volatility remains high. The sanctions on Russia by the US and Europe amplify short - term energy price fluctuations, while the marginal relaxation of Sino - US negotiations boosts market risk appetite. The domestic market is boosted by macro events and themes, deviating from the economic fundamentals in the short term. The Fourth Plenary Session's top - level planning for the technology industry supports the stock market's risk appetite, while the bond market lacks a trading mainline and shows a slightly weak and sideways trend [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Trends Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global market risk appetite continues to recover, and most global stock markets rise. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rises 1.92%, the Nikkei 225 rises 3.61%, the South Korean KOSPI index rises 5.14%, and the German DAX index rises 1.72%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 2.88%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rises 3.62%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index rises 0.84%. The MSCI Global Index shows that emerging markets > global > developed > frontier [8][10]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level, finally closing at 98.9, appreciating 0.39% from last week. The RMB exchange - rate index remains the same as the previous value, and the RMB appreciates slightly against the US dollar. The Mexican peso depreciates 0.46%, the Brazilian real appreciates 0.26%, the euro depreciates 0.22%, the yen depreciates 1.5%, the won depreciates 1.2%, the pound depreciates 0.86%, and the Australian dollar appreciates 0.29% [12][13]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - Global major national 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuate. In developed countries, the US bond yield remains at 4.02%, with limited downside space; the Japanese treasury bond yield rises 3bp; the UK treasury bond yield falls 12bp; the German treasury bond yield rises 5bp. In emerging market countries, the Chinese treasury bond yield rises 2bp to 1.85%, the Brazilian treasury bond yield falls 21bp, and the Indonesian treasury bond yield rises 7bp [17][18]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - This week, the global commodity futures and spot markets show a divergent trend, with the futures index rebounding significantly and the spot index continuing to fall. Affected by geopolitical risks, energy prices rise, with WTI crude oil rising 7.32% to $61.4 per barrel. The metal sector shows a differentiated performance, with LME copper rising 3.21% and LME aluminum rising 2.81%. The precious - metal sector continues to correct, with COMEX gold falling 3.3% and silver falling 4.38% as of Friday. The domestic commodity market shows a differentiated performance, with the energy - chemical sector > industrial products > non - ferrous metals > black metals > agricultural products > precious metals [29]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals correct from high levels. After the geopolitical risks do not further intensify, long - position holders take profits. Geopolitical risks decline marginally, which is negative for gold. The US government shutdown continues, dragging down the economy and the employment market. The US September core CPI slightly drops to 3%, and the inflation pressure is generally controllable. The market has fully priced in a 25bp interest rate cut in the October interest rate meeting. Short - term gold prices lack upward momentum, and there is a risk of correction. The international gold price tests the support at the $4000 mark. The actual interest rate slightly rises to 1.75%, the 10 - year US bond yield returns to 4%, and the US bond yield has limited downside space. The dollar index fluctuates at a high level, and the RMB fluctuates. After the correction of the outer - market gold price, the discount of Shanghai gold narrows. The Comex gold futures speculative data suspension is due to the government shutdown, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings slightly drop to 1047 tons, and the Shanghai gold positions are significantly reduced. The London silver spot price drops 6% to $48.5 per ounce, and the forced - buying market in the London spot market eases [32][40][47]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The market fluctuates significantly this week. The cease - fire agreement proposed by Ukraine and Europe raises the market's expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing a short - term plunge in safe - haven assets. However, Russia does not support a cease - fire based on the current actual control line, and the meeting between Trump and Putin is cancelled. The US September CPI is lower than expected, indicating that the inflation pressure in September is controllable, and the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 is basically determined, which boosts the market risk appetite. Sino - US trade negotiations are held in Malaysia, and it is expected that the short - term trade war will not intensify, but it is also difficult to reach a significant trade agreement. The dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [48]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - The US government shutdown is still deadlocked, and the market fluctuates mainly due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and earnings data. Sino - US negotiations are tortuous, and the tension eases this week. As corporate earnings are released, the market continues to raise its profit expectations, and corporate profits expand steadily. Large technology companies will release their earnings next week, which may further boost the market. The overall view of US stocks is bullish, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility caused by corporate earnings falling short of expectations and the twists and turns in Sino - US negotiations. Cyclical sectors lead the index, and the technology sector remains strong. The market risk appetite recovers, with only the consumer staples and utilities sectors recording declines. As earnings are released, the market profit expectations continue to rise, and the expected profit growth rate for Q3 rises to 9.3%. Short - term Sino - US negotiations are tortuous, and the market is more volatile [53][65]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - This week, the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets is 1.7975 trillion yuan, a decrease of 395.6 billion yuan compared with last week. All A - share sectors rise, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.05% and the BeiStock 50 rising 2.74%. Among the first - level industries, 27 rise and 3 fall. The leading industry is communication (+11.56%), and the lagging industry is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.59%). The market ERP slightly declines, boosting the risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the rapid decline in A - share trading volume. If the trading volume continues to decline, the high - level and high - valuation situation of the stock index will lack support; if the trading volume stabilizes, the market may still be boosted by macro events and themes [66][76]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - The main logic of the bond market is still unclear, mainly affected by multiple factors such as market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the tax period. There are many uncertain factors, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate slightly bearishly. However, the bond - market adjustment should be temporary. After November, there will be limited incremental policies, and the market risk appetite will lack a driving force to continue rising. The bond market should turn to focus on the fundamentals, and there should be a recovery market at that time. Currently, opportunities to buy on dips and play the trading range can be grasped. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrows 4.91bp to 36.96bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrows 0.66bp to 22.52bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrows 1.32bp to 36.54bp. As of the close on October 24, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts are 102.334, 105.615, 108.015, and 115.030 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.044, - 0.160, - 0.250, and - 0.700 yuan compared with last weekend. The trading volumes of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week are 76,489, 154,308, 264,330, and 179,114 lots respectively, with changes of +1958, - 1892, +4151, and - 672 lots compared with last week [77][88]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model estimates the Q3 growth rate at 3.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of Redbook retail sales is 5%, with an average year - on - year growth rate of about 5% since the beginning of the year, indicating that the US economy maintains resilience. The bank reserve balance drops to 2.44 trillion, the TGA account balance rises to 905.1 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale drops to 2.44 billion, indicating that the market liquidity continues to tighten. The corporate - bond credit spread slightly declines, and the short - term credit risk decreases. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, and the market fully prices in a 25bp interest rate cut in October and a further interest rate cut in December. The September CPI data shows that the year - on - year growth rate is 3%, the month - on - month growth rate is 0.3%, the core CPI year - on - year slightly drops to 3%, and the month - on - month growth rate drops to 0.2%, slightly lower than expected. This report consolidates the possibility of a 25bp interest rate cut next week and supports further interest rate cuts this year. However, the inflation risks in categories more affected by tariffs still exist [90][108][117]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The real - estate transaction remains weak, with both volume and price continuing to decline. The Fourth Plenary Session has relatively few arrangements for real estate, and the market's expectation of stable housing prices weakens again. The financial data mostly shows a slightly weak performance, and the active financing demand of the real - economy sector is still weak. The M1 growth rate is high, but this rise does not represent an improvement in the real economy. The PPI year - on - year growth rate in September is - 2.3%, and the CPI year - on - year growth rate is - 0.3%. Although the PPI year - on - year reading rebounds, the momentum for price increases on a month - on - month basis is still insufficient, and it is difficult for upstream price increases to be transmitted to the terminal. China's exports in September (in US dollars) increase 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increase 7.4% year - on - year. The increase in import growth may be related to China's capacity upgrade and the increased demand for imported mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products [118][142][149][159]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the sharp rebound in crude oil prices and the cooling in coastal areas, the valuation of the LPG futures market has rebounded this week, with a high monthly spread and strong spot prices. However, the increase in raw material prices has also pressured the deep - processing plants. Although the previously shut - down plants have resumed normal operation and the operating rate has increased, the plant profit losses have intensified. Currently, the fundamental structure of LPG has not changed, traditional demand has not yet spread, and chemical demand shows rigid characteristics. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback effect of continuous losses in downstream plant profits and the impact of the PN spread remaining below $50 on the raw material procurement of cracking plants [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Product Price Monitoring - The report provides the closing price, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of various energy and chemical products such as exchange rates, precious metals, and energy commodities. For example, the current price of LPG is 4,258 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly increase of 0.90%, a monthly increase of 0.31%, and an annual decrease of 8.07% [3]. 3.2 LPG Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of liquefied gas was about [missing value] tons, including [missing value] tons of civil gas, [missing value] tons of industrial gas, and [missing value] tons of ether - post C4. The arrival volume of liquefied gas last week was [missing value] tons. Although some plants in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong resumed operation, a refinery in South China had partial equipment under maintenance and some enterprises used resources internally, resulting in a decrease in supply. This week, production enterprises have no plans to start or shut down, but some enterprises still use resources internally, so the domestic commercial volume is expected to decline [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - In October, the combustion demand for liquefied gas is in the off - season as the heating season has not yet arrived. In the C4 deep - processing sector, the demand for n - butane is insufficient, the plant profit losses have intensified, and the economic efficiency has weakened. In the C3 deep - processing sector, the demand for alkanes has rebounded month - on - month, but the continuous losses in plant profits have dampened the production enthusiasm of enterprises due to the sharp increase in raw material prices and unchanged terminal demand structure [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was [missing value] tons, and the port inventory was [missing value] tons. This week, the storage capacity utilization rate of the domestic liquefied gas market has decreased. In some areas, the inventory has slightly increased due to the impact of imported resources and adverse weather conditions, while other areas have successfully reduced inventory through low prices and low supply. The port inventory has generally shown a downward trend [5]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis is [missing value] yuan/ton in East China, [missing value] yuan/ton in South China, and [missing value] yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts has increased by [missing value] to [missing value] hands, and the lowest deliverable location is [missing value] [5]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are [missing value]%, [missing value]%, and [missing value]% respectively. The profits of PDH - to - propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are [missing value] yuan/ton, [missing value] yuan/ton, and [missing value] yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio is [missing value], and the PG monthly spread is [missing value] yuan/ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil prices have rebounded sharply this week, and the PG - SC cracking spread has narrowed [5]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee has clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 15th Five - Year Plan period. The meeting between the US and Russian presidents at the Budapest Summit in Hungary has been postponed, and there is currently no plan for a meeting between the two presidents. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, and there have been continuous market news disturbances. Europe and the US have imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India has re - planned its energy procurement plan [5]. 3.3 LPG Price and Spread Analysis - The report provides the prices, price changes, and spreads of LPG futures contracts at different times. For example, on October 24, 2025, the price of PG01 is 4,050 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.92% and a monthly decrease of 5.42%. The monthly spread between PG01 and PG02 is 107 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 10.31% and a monthly increase of 67.19% [10]. 3.4 Refinery Equipment Maintenance Plan - The report lists the maintenance plans of major and local refineries in China, including the refinery name, location, maintenance equipment, maintenance capacity, start time, and end time [11]. 3.5 LPG Plant and PDH Device Maintenance Data - It provides the maintenance data of LPG plants and PDH devices, including the production enterprise, location, maintenance equipment, normal production volume, loss volume, start time, and end time [12]. 3.6 International LPG - Related Price and Spread Analysis - The report includes the price trends and spreads of CP propane, CP butane, FEI propane, FEI butane, MB propane, MB butane, etc., as well as the price ratios of these products to WTI and Brent crude oil [13][20][24]. 3.7 LPG Market Consumption and Inventory Analysis - It analyzes the consumption and inventory of LPG, including the apparent consumption, production, sales rate, and inventory in different regions such as North China, East China, South China, and Shandong [135][137]. 3.8 LPG Deep - Processing Profit Analysis - The report analyzes the profits of alkane and olefin deep - processing, including PDH - to - propylene, PDH - to - PP, MTBE, and alkylation oil [193][206][212].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (10.20-10.24) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油受地缘因素影响自低位大幅上行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.44美元，周涨7.32%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货 价格收于每桶64.72美元，周涨6.05%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至467.6元/桶，周涨8.09%。周初市场仍受美俄和谈影响低位运行，供应端未 受显著影响压制油价，而周中特朗普意外表示暂不考虑与俄罗斯总统普京会面，同时美国财政部加大对俄罗斯石油公司制裁，前所未有直接提 振市场地缘担忧情绪，令有消息称印度与美国进行关税谈判或减少俄油进口，更进一步拉升油价，原油回升至前期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices, including a peak of $4,400 per ounce followed by a 6% decline, highlight the increasing volatility and interest in the gold market, alongside other precious metals like silver and platinum [1] Group 1: Long-term Logic - The long-term investment logic for gold is driven by geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and global liquidity expansion, which are identified as the three core driving forces [1] Group 2: Medium-term Variables - Medium-term variables affecting gold prices include market sentiment and economic indicators that influence investor behavior and demand for gold [1] Group 3: Short-term Catalysts - Short-term catalysts for gold price movements are linked to immediate market reactions to geopolitical events and economic data releases, which can lead to rapid price changes [1] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Discussion on how to hold gold stocks and gold ETFs, emphasizing the importance of strategic investment in these assets to capitalize on market trends [1] Group 5: Price Correction Risks - Experts provide insights on assessing the risks associated with potential gold price corrections, focusing on market dynamics and investor sentiment [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The China - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus on addressing respective concerns, and both sides agreed to further determine specific details and complete domestic approval procedures [1][6]. - The US CPI data in September showed a certain trend, with the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of CPI and core CPI having different performances compared to expectations and previous values [1]. - For key varieties: - Copper prices are under short - term pressure, but the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - Gold prices have experienced a sharp adjustment after a rapid rise, but the long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - haven asset remains strong [2][19]. - The stock index is in a direction - selection stage. With a loose domestic liquidity environment and expected inflows of external funds, the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [3][10]. 3. Summary by Category News - **International News**: The US and Vietnam reached a framework for a reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade agreement, and the US will maintain a 20% tariff on Vietnam while working to address obstacles for US agricultural products in the Vietnamese market [5]. - **Domestic News**: China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on multiple important issues [1][6]. - **Industry News**: As of the end of September, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, with significant growth in solar and wind power. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [7]. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.79%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.33%, and the US dollar index rose 0.01%. Among commodities, LME copper rose 1.20%, while ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.41% [9]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: Positive news from China - US tariff negotiations led to a rise in US stock indices and the domestic stock index. After a high - level shock in September, the stock index is in a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, which provides some support for treasury bond futures prices. However, the easing of risk - aversion sentiment may put pressure on prices [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.3% at night. Geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, but the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to limited impact on Russian crude oil transportation [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.04% at night. The operating load of coal - to - olefin and methanol plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. The market is volatile [14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices rose last week. Supply pressure may increase later, but weather conditions in rubber - producing areas and the progress of China - US trade negotiations will affect prices [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. With the easing of the external environment and the rebound of crude oil prices, polyolefins may have a short - term oscillatory rebound [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures had a slight decline. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17][18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell from high levels. Geopolitical risks decreased, and although the long - term bullish logic for gold remains, short - term adjustments occurred [2][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is growing. The Indonesian mine accident may support copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. Smelting output is expected to increase, and domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. The market may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke prices rose slightly on Friday night. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel inventory reduction, hot metal production, and policy guidance [22]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices were strongly volatile at night. US soybean export inspection volume increased, and Brazilian soybean planting progressed well. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and rapeseed oil prices rose, while palm oil prices fell slightly at night. Palm oil production and export data showed an increase, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weakly volatile. The global sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak in the short term [26]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices were strongly volatile. The US cotton market is oscillating, and the domestic cotton market is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **European Container Shipping**: The European container shipping index opened higher and oscillated. Shipowners are actively supporting prices at the end of the year, but the market is cautious about the peak - season space. The far - month contract is slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations [28].