贵金属周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 中东紧张局势升级，金价再度走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周黄金价格震荡上行，COMEX期金主力合约再度站上 3450美元/盎司上方，最高至3468美元/盎司，创近两个月 新高。主要因为中东地缘局势恶化，以色列空袭伊朗，再 次引发市场对中东地区爆发更广泛冲突的担忧，资金纷纷 涌向避险资产。而白银价格则呈震荡偏弱走势，COMEX期 银主 ...

罗素投资：美联储可能在整个夏季维持利率不变 金十数据6月16日讯，罗素投资的分析师Paul Eitelman在一份报告中指出，鉴于关税及地缘政治风险的 影响，美联储可能在整个夏季维持利率不变。这位全球首席投资策略师称："美联储主席鲍威尔可能会 持续警惕关税及中东新兴冲突带来的风险。"他表示，美联储认为关税会对经济构成下行风险，但这种 疲软尚未在数据中显现，同时通胀也保持稳定。Eitelman称："我们预计今年年底前会有一次，或许两 次降息。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have led to increased volatility in global markets, but the impact on China's domestic energy supply is limited due to diversified energy channels [1][2] - The short-term rise in oil and gold prices may elevate inflation expectations, but the marginal impact on the market is decreasing due to China's diversified energy supply [1][2] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are primarily influenced by domestic structural issues rather than external geopolitical events, with investors focusing more on domestic macroeconomic data and corporate earnings [2][3] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to push up international oil prices, benefiting energy stocks but increasing costs for energy-intensive industries [2] - The current market's sensitivity to single geopolitical events is decreasing, with domestic economic policies and global economic recovery having a more significant impact on A-share and Hong Kong markets [2][3] - Historical patterns suggest that the region's conflicts have a persistent nature, but the current escalation is notable, requiring ongoing monitoring of its evolution [3]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-16 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-06-16 所长 早读 关注以伊冲突进展与"超级央行周" 观点分享： 以色列和伊朗之间的地缘冲突无疑是近期最大的热点。目前双方的冲突持续升级，双方 在军事、外交和能源等多个领域展开激烈对抗。6 月 15 日，伊朗对以色列发动新一轮导弹袭 击，使用无人机和弹道导弹攻击以色列多个目标，包括特拉维夫、海法等地。以色列军方宣 布对伊朗西部数十个地对地导弹目标发起打击，并击落了一架伊朗空中加油机。以色列还首 次袭击了伊朗南部布什尔省的两家炼油厂，以及德黑兰附近的燃料储存罐。若冲突进一步蔓 延至关键能源基础设施，或者伊朗不顾后果封锁霍尔木兹海峡，将对全球能源供应链造成重 大冲击。本周全球金融市场迎来"超级央行周"，多国央行将陆续召开货币政策会议，重点 关注美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行等主要央行的政策动向。美联储将在 6 月 17 日至 18 日召 开货币政策会议，预计维持联邦基金利率在当前水平不变。根据 CME FedWatch 工具，市场 押注美联储在 6 月按兵不动的概率高达 99%。市场将密切关注政 ...

Group 1: Energy and Related Products - International oil prices rose significantly last week due to the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with the Brent 08 contract up 12.8% for the week. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Investors can hold low - cost call options and consider short positions after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [1] - Gold prices were supported by the Israel - Iran military confrontation. The market is awaiting the Fed's meeting guidance this week. After gold returned to a historical high, caution is advised [2] - Geopolitical conflicts led to the strengthening of oil prices, and domestic oil product futures followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to weaken, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be under pressure [20] - Due to the impact of geopolitical risks, the price of asphalt followed the rise of crude oil but underperformed, and the crack spread fell sharply. The fundamentals support de - stocking, but the crack spread is under obvious pressure [21] - Geopolitical risks have further increased. The domestic LPG market is relatively more relaxed than the crude oil market. The market is in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of Middle East exports [22] Group 2: Base Metals - Last week, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, with inventories decreasing to 114,400 tons. This week, attention should be paid to the G7 meeting. Short - position holders should roll over to the 2508 contract [3] - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has fermented, and the spread between months has widened significantly. The strong de - stocking in the aluminum market supports the strength of the near - month contract, while concerns about seasonal weakening of demand and pre - export suppress the performance of the far - month contract [4] - The far - month contract of cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock, and the spread structure was similar to that of Shanghai aluminum. During the off - season, there is still a possibility of the spread with Shanghai aluminum narrowing. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying ADC and shorting AL [5] - The northern spot price of alumina fell below 3,200 yuan last week. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. Futures are recommended to be shorted on rebounds [6] - The fundamentals of zinc are expected to shift to increased supply and weak demand. Although the short - term low inventory provides some support, the market is still dominated by short - sellers [7] - The price of lead in Shanghai is under pressure at the 17,000 - yuan integer level. The slow resumption of recycled refined lead production supports the lead price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price of nickel in Shanghai declined, and the market trading was dull. The spot premium was stable, and the far - month structure was relatively strong. Technically, short - selling should be followed [9] - Last Friday, LME tin rebounded and broke through the MA60 moving average, with inventories decreasing to 2,260 tons. The domestic tin market may shift to the export direction [10] Group 3: Chemical Products - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated narrowly. The overall market inventory was stable at a high level. The decline of the futures price slowed down, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock [11] - The industrial silicon futures decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot price tended to be stable. The supply pressure increased month - on - month, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12] - The PVC market continues to have high supply and weak demand, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level. The price of caustic soda fell below the previous low, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [27] - The prices of PX and PTA loads continued to rise, while the weaving and dyeing start - up rate decreased, and terminal orders weakened. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure was slightly relieved [28] - The开工 of ethylene glycol increased, and the port inventory accumulated. The supply - demand relationship weakened slightly, and attention should be paid to the energy market [30] Group 4: Ferrous Metals and Related Products - On Friday night, steel prices strengthened. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory de - stocking slowed down. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils both declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock [13] - The iron ore market was volatile last week. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [14] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coke rose last night. There is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [15] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coking coal rose last night. The total inventory increased slightly, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of silicon - manganese rose last Friday. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [17] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of ferrosilicon rose last Friday. The supply decreased, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Group 5: Agricultural Products - The USDA's June soybean supply - demand report was neutral. Affected by the Israel - Iran war, the price of US soybeans rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the market is expected to be in a shock [34] - The US EPA's proposed RFS policy is bullish for the soybean and related oil markets. The bottom of the US soybean and soybean oil prices is relatively firm, but there is an upward risk [35] - Affected by the US biodiesel policy and产区 weather, the prices of Canadian canola and canola oil rose. The market strategy remains bullish [36] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the impact of weather on prices [37] - The USDA's June corn report was slightly bullish. Affected by the wheat policy, the corn futures price is expected to be in a shock [38] - The price of live pigs futures rebounded on Friday. In the short term, the spot price is under downward pressure, while in the medium term, the far - end price has support [39] - The egg futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pre - release of demand when the price is at a low level, but there is still a risk of price fluctuations [40] - The price of US cotton was volatile. The domestic cotton market was generally trading, and the market sentiment was not high. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [41] - The price of US sugar was in a shock. The supply of Brazilian sugar is expected to be relatively bearish. The domestic sugar market has less pressure, and the price is expected to be in a shock [42] - The price of apples was in a shock. The market demand declined, and the trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate [43] Group 6: Others - The freight index of the container shipping (European line) was affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The impact on the European line market is limited. After the short - term sentiment fades, the far - month off - season is expected to return to a weak pattern [19] - The price of wood futures was weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [43] - The price of pulp futures was in a shock. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on significant pullbacks [44] - The A - share market declined unilaterally, and the futures index contracts all fell. The market risk preference was suppressed by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [45] - The bond market was bullish. The market expects the central bank to inject liquidity this month, and the bullish trend is expected to continue [46]

摘要国际黄金上周五（6月13日）日K收涨，美市尾盘，国际黄金收报3431.99美元/盎司，上涨46.62美元 或1.38%，日内最高上探3446.62美元/盎司，最低触及3379.33美元/盎司。 国际黄金上周五（6月13日）日K收涨，美市尾盘，国际黄金收报3431.99美元/盎司，上涨46.62美元或 1.38%，日内最高上探3446.62美元/盎司，最低触及3379.33美元/盎司。 黄金上周上破3400再次上涨，当周最低3293，最高3446，周线收阳于3432，周线形态还将继续上涨，日 线，震荡上行，综述本周操作思路回调多为主，重点关注地缘因素消息面，日内，四小时线，震荡上 行，上方先看3450的突破情况，小时线，今早上涨3450回落，形态呈震荡，下方关注3420和3400，日内 操作思路3400上方以多为主。 【要闻回顾】 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队6月15日发布消息称，对以色列一些情报中心发动了打击。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队新 闻处的声明称："为了报复犹太复国主义政权今天犯下的罪行，伊斯兰革命卫队航天部队发动了新一波 使用导弹的行动，打击了该政权的情报中心。" 据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社15日报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队 ...

以下文章来源于智通财经APP ，作者智通编选 智通财经APP . 智通财经APP，连线全球资本市场。内容合作/内容举报请联系李先生： Tel: +86-15121009144 Email:zhitongcolumn@163.com 点击蓝字，关注我们 以色列于 6 月 13 日清晨对伊朗核设施及弹道导弹基地发动突袭，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官侯赛因・ 萨拉米在袭击中身亡，德黑兰随即誓言对以政府及美国实施 "严厉打击"。 这场突如其来的中东危机迅速穿透地缘边界，在全球资本市场掀起剧烈震荡 —— 布伦特原油期货单日 飙升超 13%，加密货币与全球股市集体下挫，黄金等避险资产应声暴涨，能源与金融市场的连锁反应正 持续发酵。 亚洲市场方面，港股成为地缘风险的直接冲击对象 。恒生指数当日低开后震荡下挫，最终收跌 0.59% 报 23892.56 点，恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至 1.72%，科技股全线疲软，阿里巴巴、美团等龙头跌幅超 1%。不过， 能源与黄金板块逆势走强 ，中海油、中石油涨超 2%，赤峰黄金飙升 10%， 山东墨龙因油 气设备订单预期激增一度暴涨 160% 。 南向资金逆势净买入 39.97 亿港元，显示内地资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on June 16, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. Geopolitical conflicts and economic data are important factors affecting the market, and short - term events may provide investment opportunities [2]. - Financial总量 continues to grow reasonably, and policies are coordinated to promote economic recovery. In the stock market, short - term events may cause declines, but the long - term value of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks is recognized, with a preference for the pan - technology direction [9][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On June 13, 2025, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure. On June 16, they are expected to oscillate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided. In June 2025, they are expected to be mostly in a strong - oscillation state [22][30]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On June 13, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures showed a slight upward trend. On June 16, the ten - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while the thirty - year treasury bond futures are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state [49][54]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals Futures - On June 13, 2025, gold futures showed an upward trend, and silver futures showed a slight downward trend. On June 16, both are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state. In June 2025, gold is expected to have a strong wide - range oscillation, and silver is expected to be in a strong - oscillation state and may set a new high [57][65]. 3.1.4 Base Metals Futures - On June 13, 2025, the trends of base metals futures varied. Copper, zinc, and nickel showed downward trends, while aluminum, lead, and tin showed upward trends. On June 16, most are expected to be in a strong - oscillation state, except for alumina and zinc which are expected to oscillate weakly or consolidate. In June 2025, their trends also vary [68][83][96]. 3.1.5 Energy Futures - On June 13, 2025, crude oil and fuel oil futures showed significant upward trends. On June 16, crude oil is expected to be in a strong - oscillation state, and fuel oil is expected to have a strong wide - range oscillation. The conflict between Iran and Israel has a significant impact on the energy market [116][124]. 3.1.6 Agricultural Product Futures - On June 13, 2025, the trends of agricultural product futures varied. PTA and methanol showed upward trends, while PVC and soybean meal showed slight downward trends. On June 16, their trends are predicted to be different, with some expected to oscillate strongly, some to oscillate widely, and some to oscillate and consolidate [125][131]. 3.2 Macro - economic Information - President Xi Jinping will attend the Second China - Central Asia Summit. The article by General Secretary Xi Jinping will be published in Qiushi. The State Council has carried out relevant work, and the central bank has released financial data, showing that the financial support for the real economy is stable. The central bank will conduct a 400 billion yuan repurchase operation, and the RMB swap agreement with Turkey has been renewed [8][9][11]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel has intensified, affecting global markets. The US stock market, European stock market, and Middle Eastern stock market have all declined, while the prices of crude oil and precious metals have risen. The market is concerned about the impact of this conflict on the global economy and the supply of crude oil [14][29]. - The eurozone's industrial and trade sectors were significantly impacted in April, with a decline in industrial output and a sharp drop in the trade surplus. The global "super central bank week" is approaching, and the market is awaiting the interest rate decisions of central banks such as the Federal Reserve [19]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC has announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)", which will be implemented on October 9, 2025. International precious metals and oil futures showed an upward trend on June 13, 2025, mainly due to geopolitical tensions. The global physical gold ETF had a net outflow in May 2025 [19][20].

Group 1: Macro and Index Futures - The stock index futures market has shown certain volatility recently, with the main contracts rising to varying degrees. The trading volume and open interest have increased, indicating rising attention to small and medium - cap index products. However, the basis is generally at a discount, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is advisable to hold a light position and make low - level layouts [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to concerns about oil supply disruptions and driven up oil prices. Fundamentally, the approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, but in the medium - term, the reaction of the Middle East situation and the outcome of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation are crucial. OPEC+ plans to increase production in July. WTI should pay attention to the pressure around $78 per barrel, and in the long - term, the upside of oil prices is limited without major geopolitical impacts on supply [3]. Group 3: Gold - The Middle East conflict has broken the consolidation of international gold prices. On June 13, spot gold prices soared by 1.7% intraday, approaching the April high. Investors should pay attention to geopolitical situations, the Fed's FOMC meeting in July, and the US - EU tariff negotiation deadline. Gold prices may face technical corrections [4][5]. Group 4: Silver - Affected by the Middle East situation, silver prices rose but were restricted by industrial attributes. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts decreased, and trade policy uncertainties suppressed industrial demand. Sprott's silver trust received a net inflow of $500 million. Silver prices are supported by geopolitical risks but may face technical overbought corrections. Attention should be paid to Iran's retaliatory actions, the Fed's FOMC meeting, and the US - EU tariff negotiation [6]. Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The price of PTA is supported by the rising cost of crude oil due to the Middle East situation, but the upside is limited. In June, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The polyester and textile industries are in the off - season, and the market lacks positive stimuli. PTA supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol has increased slightly, with an overall operating load of 55.07%. The inventory in East China's main ports has decreased. The demand side is weak, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [8]. PVC - The supply of PVC has decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly. The social inventory has decreased. The futures price is affected by market sentiment and may oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [9][10]. PP - The supply of PP has increased, with the average capacity utilization rate rising to 78.64%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [11][12]. Plastic - The supply of plastic has increased, with the production enterprise capacity utilization rate rising to 79.17%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [13]. Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash has increased, with the overall operating rate rising to 84.9%. The factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average, and the futures price may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply of glass has remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure during the rainy season cannot be ignored. The demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate weakly in the short term [15][16]. Rubber - The price of rubber is affected by the repeated trade war situation and the oversupply fundamentals. The domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season, and the supply is abundant. The downstream tire operating rate has decreased. Rubber may show a pattern of slow rise and sharp fall under weak fundamentals [17]. Methanol - The spot price of methanol has decreased, while the futures price has increased. The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is high. The demand from the MTO device has recovered, but the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. The futures price may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation speed and the impact of the Middle East situation on oil prices [18]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June report has limited positive support. Domestically, the corn market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather may affect prices. The downstream demand is weak. Corn may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term [19]. Peanut - In the long - term, the domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. Currently, the market is in the inventory consumption period, with low inventory levels. The demand is in the off - season, and the price may be pushed up by restocking demand. The short - term price may weaken, and attention should be paid to the support at 8200 yuan per ton [20]. Cotton - The US cotton planting and budding rates are slightly slower than in previous years. In the long - term, the cotton supply is expected to be abundant, and the price may remain low. Currently, the import is low, and the commercial inventory is lower than usual, providing support. The downstream textile market is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. Cotton may oscillate strongly in the short term [21]. Pig - The government's reserve release has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and the consumer demand is weak. The futures contract 2509 should pay attention to whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14000, and the pig slaughter situation needs continuous attention [22]. Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory. The demand is weak due to difficult storage in hot and humid weather. The current futures price is undervalued, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Soybean No. 2 - The market has digested the positive impact of the China - US trade talks. The USDA's June report is neutral. The US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean is in the peak export season. It may oscillate in the short term [24][25]. Soybean Meal - The global geopolitical situation is unstable. The market has digested the China - US trade talks. The US soybean planting is good, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It may oscillate in the short term [26]. Soybean Oil - The international oil price increase has driven up the domestic soybean oil market. The US soybean planting is progressing well, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [27]. Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The complexity of the 2025 interest - rate cut path, global tariff conflicts, and the Middle East risk may affect market sentiment. Domestically, policy support is strong. The copper market is in a stage of resonance, and it is advisable to hold for now, with the defense line moved to the lower neckline of the island pattern [28]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - sentiment is boosted by the China - US economic and trade consultation and the US interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate within a range [29][30]. Alumina - The supply of alumina is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased slightly. The price is under pressure, and the futures contract 2509 may show a weak adjustment trend [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported by the tight scrap - aluminum market, but the supply is excessive. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year. The inventory is relatively high, and the futures contract 2511 may operate weakly [32]. Lithium Carbonate - The raw - material prices in the lithium industry chain have stabilized, and the supply is stable with a structural adjustment. The demand is weak. The market may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct range operations [33]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the demand is weak. The inventory digestion is slow, and the price is under pressure. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [34]. Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon is stable, and the demand is weak overall. The export volume has decreased. The market supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, and the futures contract 2507 may oscillate, with attention paid to the previous low - point support [35]. Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The technical trend of stainless steel may shift from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. Rebar - The rebar futures may shift from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. The cost is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The technical trend of hot - rolled coil is stabilizing. The cost is stable, the apparent demand has recovered, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [38]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is emerging. The market sentiment is boosted by the easing of China - US tariffs, but the export sustainability is uncertain. The futures contract 2509 may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed and the steel - mill restart rhythm [39][40]. Coal Mine - The supply of coking coal is expected to contract due to production accidents and new regulations. The demand for coking coal and coke is weak. The futures contracts of coking coal and coke may oscillate recently, and attention should be paid to the steel - mill inventory digestion and policy implementation [41].

| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 以色列空袭伊朗事件升级发酵，主推避险情况，尽管美国数据积极，关税谈判 | | 黄金 强势走高 | 进入关键时期，短期不确定性仍然较多，关注中东问题的严峻程度。长期全球 | | | 尚在秩序重塑途中，黄金战略配置价值高。【790-815】 | | | 白银跟随黄金避险情绪，市场表现上涨，金银比价方面，目前回归正常区间， | | 白银 高位震荡 | 目前白银基本面变化不大，短期白银将交易黄金和基本金属跟随特性，关注 | | | 8700，如果撑不住或再次回到前期区间。【8700-9000】 | | | 中美会谈结束并没有实质性大利好，国内宏观窗口期，中东地缘风险激增，市场对 | | 铜 区间震荡 | 全球经济下行担忧增加，市场避险情绪回升，铜短期反弹，但整体或仍旧承压，重 | | | 新回到震荡区间。中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77800，78800】 | | | 海外地缘风险激增，美联储议息会议临近，市场避险情绪上升，锌止跌反弹， | | 锌 反弹 | 成本支撑下深跌空间或有限，但整体依旧偏弱，短期建议暂时观望，长期看， | ...