Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices, including a peak of $4,400 per ounce followed by a 6% decline, highlight the increasing volatility and interest in the gold market, alongside other precious metals like silver and platinum [1] Group 1: Long-term Logic - The long-term investment logic for gold is driven by geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and global liquidity expansion, which are identified as the three core driving forces [1] Group 2: Medium-term Variables - Medium-term variables affecting gold prices include market sentiment and economic indicators that influence investor behavior and demand for gold [1] Group 3: Short-term Catalysts - Short-term catalysts for gold price movements are linked to immediate market reactions to geopolitical events and economic data releases, which can lead to rapid price changes [1] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Discussion on how to hold gold stocks and gold ETFs, emphasizing the importance of strategic investment in these assets to capitalize on market trends [1] Group 5: Price Correction Risks - Experts provide insights on assessing the risks associated with potential gold price corrections, focusing on market dynamics and investor sentiment [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The China - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus on addressing respective concerns, and both sides agreed to further determine specific details and complete domestic approval procedures [1][6]. - The US CPI data in September showed a certain trend, with the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of CPI and core CPI having different performances compared to expectations and previous values [1]. - For key varieties: - Copper prices are under short - term pressure, but the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - Gold prices have experienced a sharp adjustment after a rapid rise, but the long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - haven asset remains strong [2][19]. - The stock index is in a direction - selection stage. With a loose domestic liquidity environment and expected inflows of external funds, the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [3][10]. 3. Summary by Category News - **International News**: The US and Vietnam reached a framework for a reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade agreement, and the US will maintain a 20% tariff on Vietnam while working to address obstacles for US agricultural products in the Vietnamese market [5]. - **Domestic News**: China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on multiple important issues [1][6]. - **Industry News**: As of the end of September, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, with significant growth in solar and wind power. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [7]. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.79%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.33%, and the US dollar index rose 0.01%. Among commodities, LME copper rose 1.20%, while ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.41% [9]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: Positive news from China - US tariff negotiations led to a rise in US stock indices and the domestic stock index. After a high - level shock in September, the stock index is in a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, which provides some support for treasury bond futures prices. However, the easing of risk - aversion sentiment may put pressure on prices [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.3% at night. Geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, but the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to limited impact on Russian crude oil transportation [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.04% at night. The operating load of coal - to - olefin and methanol plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. The market is volatile [14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices rose last week. Supply pressure may increase later, but weather conditions in rubber - producing areas and the progress of China - US trade negotiations will affect prices [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. With the easing of the external environment and the rebound of crude oil prices, polyolefins may have a short - term oscillatory rebound [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures had a slight decline. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17][18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell from high levels. Geopolitical risks decreased, and although the long - term bullish logic for gold remains, short - term adjustments occurred [2][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is growing. The Indonesian mine accident may support copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. Smelting output is expected to increase, and domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. The market may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke prices rose slightly on Friday night. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel inventory reduction, hot metal production, and policy guidance [22]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices were strongly volatile at night. US soybean export inspection volume increased, and Brazilian soybean planting progressed well. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and rapeseed oil prices rose, while palm oil prices fell slightly at night. Palm oil production and export data showed an increase, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weakly volatile. The global sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak in the short term [26]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices were strongly volatile. The US cotton market is oscillating, and the domestic cotton market is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **European Container Shipping**: The European container shipping index opened higher and oscillated. Shipowners are actively supporting prices at the end of the year, but the market is cautious about the peak - season space. The far - month contract is slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent correction in precious metal prices is mainly due to the expectation of a temporary easing of overseas risk events and an over - bought correction in trading, rather than a reversal of the trading logic. The price decline is more of a "correction in the upward trend" than a "trend reversal" based on geopolitical risks, weakening US dollar credit, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, focusing on the upcoming Fed interest - rate meeting and considering buying on dips. [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On October 27, 2025, Shanghai gold futures (SHFE) fell 0.48% to 941.34 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.25% to 11,419.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.41 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 98.94. [2] - From August 22 to October 17, the price of the COMEX gold main contract rose by 26.21%, and the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose by 31.23%. On October 21, COMEX gold prices dropped by 5.07%, and COMEX silver prices dropped by 6.27%. [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices - Overseas risk events: Media reports of a potential peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term drop in precious metal prices. However, the situation has not been completely reversed as Trump and the White House stated there are no plans for a meeting between the US and Russian presidents. [2] - US inflation data and Fed policy expectations: US September CPI data was lower than expected, boosting expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Due to the government shutdown in October, inflation data may not be released in November. The market has almost fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in the next two Fed meetings. [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - Maintain a long - position strategy. Focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting on Thursday (market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut), and pay attention to Powell's statement on the balance - sheet. It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference trading range for the SHFE gold main contract is 923 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver main contract is 11,082 - 12,023 yuan/kilogram. [4] 3.4 Data Summary - **Gold**: On October 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.39% to 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 10.19% to 29.20 million lots, and open interest increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.44% to 938.10 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 33.87% to 49.95 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.28% to 35.59 million lots. [7] - **Silver**: On October 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.49% to 48.41 US dollars/ounce, open interest increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.18% to 11,332.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 5.55% to 147.59 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.97% to 73.99 million lots. [7]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The "14th Five-Year Plan" main goals were released, boosting market sentiment. The goals include significant achievements in high-quality development, increased self-reliance in technology, breakthroughs in deepening reforms, enhanced social civilization, improved quality of life, major progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthened national security. By 2035, the aim is for China's economic, technological, defense, and comprehensive national strength to significantly rise, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries. This suggests an average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, positively impacting current market sentiment and economic expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%. The October S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2, better than the previous 52. The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential halt in balance sheet contraction in the coming months, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy and a relatively smooth path for easing [2] Group 3: Commodity Sector Analysis - The commodity market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black metal sector is under pressure from downstream demand expectations, while the non-ferrous sector is supported by long-term supply constraints and recent global easing expectations. The energy sector is viewed with a medium-term supply surplus outlook, as OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, caustic soda, and urea is noteworthy. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, while precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after significant fluctuations, awaiting new signals for movement [3]

Copper Market Overview - LME copper price increased by 3.17% to $10,947.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.95% to ¥87,700 per ton [1] - Import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$42.7 per ton, indicating supply pressure [1] - National copper inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 181.6 thousand tons, primarily due to lower import and domestic supply [1] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 57.7%, with a slight expected decrease next week [1] - Domestic copper wire and cable enterprises' operating rate was 62.34%, showing a minor increase but overall demand remains weak [1] Aluminum Market Overview - LME aluminum price rose by 2.75% to $2,856.50 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum increased by 1.51% to ¥21,200 per ton [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply [2] - Despite high operational capacity in alumina production, the overall supply remains excessive, leading to expectations of continued price declines [2] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises recorded at 62.4%, showing stability but with internal differentiation [2] Gold Market Overview - COMEX gold price decreased by 5.66% to $4,126.9 per ounce, influenced by U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical risks [3] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 11.73 tons to 1,046.93 tons, reflecting market sentiment [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has disrupted key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [3] Rare Earth Market Overview - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide price decreased by 1.35%, aligning with previous expectations of price fluctuations [4] - The outlook for overseas replenishment is positive, with potential price increases anticipated [4] - The strategic importance of rare earths is highlighted, with a bullish view on companies like China Rare Earth, Guangxi Chaozhou, and others [4] Lithium and Cobalt Market Overview - Carbonate lithium price increased by 1.97% to ¥74,500 per ton, while hydroxide lithium rose by 0.15% to ¥78,300 per ton [5] - Cobalt prices surged by 7% to ¥407,500 per ton, indicating strong demand in the market [5] - Nickel prices saw a slight increase, with LME nickel price at $15,300 per ton [5]

Group 1: Core Views - The article highlights the basic consensus reached between China and the U.S. during recent trade talks, focusing on key economic issues such as maritime logistics, tariff extensions, and agricultural trade [1][6] - U.S. inflation data shows a year-on-year increase of 3% in September, indicating a potential impact on economic policies and market expectations [1] Group 2: Key Commodities - Copper prices have slightly decreased, with tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including power generation and automotive [2][19] - Gold and silver have experienced a pullback due to easing geopolitical tensions and market expectations regarding U.S. interest rate cuts, while central banks continue to accumulate gold as a safe-haven asset [2][18] Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices rose following positive developments in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with significant gains in technology sectors and overall market liquidity expected to remain favorable [3][10] - The recent Chinese Communist Party meeting emphasized technological self-reliance, which may influence market trends and investment strategies in the upcoming quarter [3][10] Group 4: Industry News - China's National Energy Administration reported a 17.5% year-on-year increase in total installed power generation capacity as of September, with solar and wind power showing significant growth [7] - The article discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, which may affect global oil supply dynamics and pricing [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradiction in the crude oil market is the game between short - term geopolitical risk positives and medium - to - long - term fundamental negatives, with the balance tilting towards the negatives. Short - term geopolitical news has pushed up Brent crude prices, but if the situation does not escalate, prices may fall next week. Medium - to - long - term, supply is sufficient and demand is weak, and geopolitical positives cannot change the long - term trend [1]. - Near - term trading is mainly a game between geopolitical disturbances and macro - sentiment. Distant - term trading is dominated by fundamentals and structural changes, with a continuous pressure of supply surplus [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction is the game between short - term geopolitical risk positives and medium - to - long - term fundamental negatives. Short - term geopolitical news has pushed up Brent by $2 - 3, but the risk is only at the news - disturbance stage. Medium - to - long - term, Russia can adjust supply and OPEC is ready to increase production, while demand is weak [1]. - Near - term trading logic is a game between geopolitical disturbances and macro - sentiment. Distant - term trading is dominated by fundamentals and structural changes, with supply surplus pressure and slowing demand growth [3]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is in short - term rebound repair and medium - term weak oscillation. - Strategy suggestions: For single - side trading, short at high levels when Brent rebounds to $66 - 68, with a stop - loss at $70; for arbitrage, use reverse arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: New sanctions on Russia by the US and EU have raised concerns about supply disruptions and pushed up oil prices. The unexpected decline in US crude inventories also supported prices [7]. - **Negative Information**: Trump's response to the Venezuela military situation and the possibility of a Trump - Putin meeting [8]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - OPEC + meeting: Whether to adjust the production - increase plan will affect oil prices. - Execution of sanctions on Russia: Strong execution may push up prices, while weak execution has limited impact. - Development of trade tensions: A trade agreement may boost demand and prices, while further tension will depress prices [10]. Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Analysis - This week, crude oil prices rebounded and were supported by geopolitical risk premiums. On Friday, US crude futures fell 0.57% to $61.44/barrel, up 7.51% for the week; Brent crude futures fell 0.57% to $64.92/barrel, up 7.06% for the week [12]. - **Domestic Market**: SC2512 rose 6.87% this week. Last week, its trading volume was 680,800 lots, and open interest increased by 41,065 lots. - **International Market**: As of October 21, ICE Brent crude futures open interest increased by 128,998 lots week - on - week, while managed funds' net long positions decreased by 58,520 lots [14][15]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of October 24, Brent and WTI monthly spreads strengthened, while domestic and Middle - East spreads weakened, showing that geopolitical support cannot offset weak fundamentals [23]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of October 24, the SC - Brent spread widened negatively, and the Brent - WTI spread widened, as external crude oil was more strongly supported by geopolitical risk premiums [27]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of October 24, European crude oil cracking spreads strengthened across the board. In North America and the Asia - Pacific, diesel cracking was stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, cracking spreads weakened and refinery profits continued to decline [32]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 11 - 17, US crude production was 13.629 million barrels/day, down 0.7 million barrels/day week - on - week. From October 18 - 24, the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by 2 to 420 [46]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 11 - 17, US refinery crude input increased by 600,000 barrels/day week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate rose 2.9 percentage points. From October 17 - 23, the utilization rate of independent refineries in China decreased by 0.61 percentage points, and that of major refineries decreased by 0.34 percentage points [48]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 17, US commercial crude inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels week - on - week, strategic petroleum inventories increased by 819,000 barrels, and Cushing crude inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels [50]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 11 - 17, US crude exports decreased by 263,000 barrels/day week - on - week, while petroleum product exports increased by 353,000 barrels/day. From October 7 - 13, Middle - East seaborne crude exports decreased by 10.65% week - on - week, and Russian seaborne crude exports increased by 16.70% [52]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA raised its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC kept its demand forecasts unchanged. IEA slightly lowered its demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [55][56].

周度报告-黄金 资金获利了结，金价高位下挫 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：看跌 报告日期： 2025 年 10 月 26 日 ★投资建议： 短期金价缺乏上涨动力，需要注意回调风险，国际金价考察 4000 美元的支撑，沪金出现一定的抄底迹象，不过也未完全企稳。关 注中美贸易谈判进展，预计市场波动增加。 ★风险提示： 地缘政治风险缓和、美联储鹰派、流动性冲击，将引发黄金回调。 | 徐颖 | FRM | 宏观策略首席分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | | F3022608 | | 投资咨询号： | | Z0013609 | | Tel: | | 8621-63325888-1610 | | Email: | | ying.xu @orientfutures.com | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 3.3%至 4113 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率微降至 4%，通 胀预期 2.27%，实际利率微升至 1.73%，美元指数涨 0.53%至 98.9， 标普 500 指数上涨 1.92%，人民币震荡，沪金折价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to seasonal demand and supply disruptions, particularly for copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals like lithium and cobalt are projected to perform well, driven by strong demand in the energy storage market and supply constraints [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to experience price fluctuations in the short term, but long-term trends remain bullish due to central bank gold purchases and weakening dollar credit [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by macroeconomic sentiment and supply disruptions, with the SMM import copper concentrate index at $51.2/ton, down $0.6/ton month-on-month [2]. - Aluminum demand is robust, particularly from the automotive sector, with domestic aluminum ingot social inventory at approximately 618,000 tons, down 9,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - Key companies recommended include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium supply is increasing due to new production lines, while demand from the energy storage market is exceeding expectations, supporting strong prices [3]. - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply concerns from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Chinese companies receiving fewer export quotas than expected [3]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Yichun Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are experiencing short-term volatility due to optimistic international conditions, but long-term outlook remains positive with central bank purchases [4]. - Silver prices are influenced by industrial demand and follow gold's price movements [4]. - Recommended companies include Western Gold and Shandong Gold [4].

石化周报 美制裁俄两大石油公司，油价大幅反弹 2025 年 10 月 26 日 ➢ 美制裁俄两大石油公司，油价大幅反弹。继特朗普 10 月 21 日称推迟与普 京的布达佩斯会晤后，美国财政部 10 月 22 日的一份声明表示，将制裁俄罗斯国 有石油巨头 Rosneft 和卢克石油公司，且由这两家公司直接或间接拥有 50%或 以上股权的实体均被冻结，两家公司的原油出口量接近俄原油出口总量的近一 半，今年上半年约为 220 万桶/日。同时，据路透社 2025 年 10 月 22 日消息， 接收俄罗斯石油的主要国家之一——印度和美国正接近达成一项双边贸易协定， 该协议旨在大幅降低印度对美出口关税，从当前的 50%（包括 25%的对等关税 和 25%的购俄石油惩罚性关税）降至 15%-16%。从美印双方态度来看，特朗普 强调，印度将逐步减少从俄罗斯购买石油，连续第二周声称他直接与印度总理莫 迪就此事进行了交谈；印度炼油厂高管也表示，在美国此次制裁后，俄罗斯流向 印度主要加工商的石油供应预计将降至接近零的水平。总体来看，一方面，此次 美对俄制裁力度较大，对俄的理论出口量影响接近 50%；另一方面，美印两方的 态度加大了 ...