Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in geopolitical risks has led to an increase in gold prices, with the gold ETF (518800) rising over 0.7% and a net inflow of over 1.6 billion yuan in the past 10 days [1]. Geopolitical Risks - Multiple regions are experiencing heightened geopolitical risks, which have increased the risk premium for gold [1]. - Investment institutions are engaging in "Donroe trade," anticipating that U.S. international interventions may extend beyond Venezuela to Colombia, Cuba, and Greenland, prompting early trading in related financial products [1]. Gold Price Outlook - In the medium to long term, the central price of gold is expected to rise, suggesting that investors may consider participating in future pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1]. - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETF (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETF (517400) that covers the entire gold industry chain [1].

Group 1 - The February 2026 gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange fell by $14.4, closing at $4,594.4 per ounce, a decrease of 0.31% [1] - The geopolitical uncertainty has heightened market risk aversion, leading to gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, with February gold touching $4,644.00 and March silver reaching $89.215 [1] - CME Group announced adjustments to the margin setting for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures based on a percentage of nominal margin rather than a dollar amount, effective after the market close on January 13 [1] Group 2 - Citigroup raised its 0-3 month target price for gold to $5,000 per ounce and for silver to $100 per ounce due to increased geopolitical risks and ongoing shortages in the spot market [2] - However, Citigroup anticipates that gold prices may face significant declines in the second half of 2026 as global tensions ease [2] Group 3 - The March silver futures price increased by $1.705, closing at $86.860 per ounce, reflecting a 2.00% rise [3]

文 | 史玥明 来源 | 光大期货微资讯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 共性驱动：三大核心因素撑起贵金属牛市根基 01 2026年开年的贵金属市场，用"疯狂"二字形容毫不为过。1月14日，现货白银首次突破90美元，再创历史新高，新年首月累计涨幅 已远超市场预期。一边是投资者涌入贵金属ETF、相关LOF基金份额屡创新高的狂热，一边是芝商所一个月内三次上调保证金、彭博 指数调整引发被动减仓的降温信号。 图源：wind 无论是黄金的稳步攀升，还是白银的暴力突破，本质上都是多重宏观变量共振的结果。梳理当前市场环境，地缘政治风险升温、美联储 降息预期强化、全球战略储备需求激增，这三大共性因素构成了贵金属上涨的核心支撑，且每一个因素都有明确的数据与事件佐证。 1. 地缘政治"风暴眼"持续扩容，避险需求空前高涨 贵金属的避险属性，在全球地缘冲突加剧的背景下被无限放大。进入2026年，全球地缘政治的"火药味"明显变浓，从美洲到中东再到北 极，多重冲突点叠加，直接推升了市场对贵金属的配置需求。 最受关注的莫过于特朗普政府的对外政策动向。据央视新闻报道，美国官员透露，特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案，包括向中东派 遣航 ...

Industry Overview - As of January 13, WTI crude oil futures for March settled at $60.93 per barrel, an increase of $1.61 or 2.7% [1] - Brent crude oil futures for March settled at $65.47 per barrel, an increase of $1.60 or 2.5% [1] - Citic Securities indicates that geopolitical risks may drive oil prices higher in the short term, but the global crude oil market remains in a supply surplus, with prices expected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 per barrel [1] - A short-term supply gap of approximately 1 million barrels per day from Venezuela is anticipated to push oil prices upward [1] Oil and Gas Service Companies - Tongyuan Petroleum specializes in oilfield technical services such as perforation, and has formed a business layout in the perforation segment through the integration of North American perforation operations [1] - Zhongman Petroleum engages in oil and gas exploration and development engineering services, with recent opportunities arising from the repair needs of Venezuelan oil facilities [1] - CNOOC Services provides comprehensive offshore oil and gas development services, adapting its offshore oil and gas service business to global supply chain adjustments [1] - Jun Oil Co. focuses on oilfield extraction technical services, with demand for oilfield services adjusting in response to fluctuations in international crude oil prices [1] Oil Companies - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is involved in crude oil exploration, development, production, and sales, with its operations closely linked to international crude oil price movements [2] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) specializes in crude oil refining, petroleum product marketing, and chemical production, with recent adjustments in international crude oil prices affecting its processing costs [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) focuses on offshore crude oil exploration and production, with changes in the global crude oil supply landscape impacting its production and sales arrangements [2] - Intercontinental Oil and Gas has overseas oil and gas asset exploration and development operations, with geopolitical factors affecting its resource development pace [2]

地缘政治不确定性犹存，黄金见顶言之尚早需警惕风险尽管短期走势显示见顶迹象，但全球地缘政治的持续紧张，仍为黄金提供了底层支撑。特朗普政府对 美联储独立性的刑事调查，以及对伊朗贸易伙伴加征25%关税的威胁，引发了对全球供应链和石油市场的担忧。 海湾国家游说美国避免对伊朗动武，警告 石油扰乱将损害经济稳定。同时，美国对格陵兰岛的图谋激化美欧关系，欧盟和北欧国家联合发声，警告北约可能终结。这些事件放大避险需求，推动资金 向黄金倾斜，即使美元强势，也难以完全抵消这一效应。地缘政治紧张局势和对美联储独立性的质疑是黄金的基本面支撑。特朗普对鲍威尔展开刑事调查， 招致全球央行官员的批评，进一步放大不确定性。德国商业银行上调2026年底黄金价格预估至4900美元，花旗银行策略师甚至将目标价调至5000美元，白银 至100美元。他们将地缘政治风险加剧、现货市场短缺和美联储不确定性列为主要原因。 此外，日本首相高市早苗的鸽派政策可能引发日元进一步贬值，间接支撑美元，但也增加了全球货币政策不确定性。日本当局已发出汇市干预威胁，这或将 引发更广泛的市场波动。 在这种背景下，黄金的见顶风险虽存在，但言之尚早。核心通胀仍高于央行目标，多数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant surge in January 2026, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs due to a combination of policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and industrial demand [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 14, 2026, gold prices increased by 7%, surpassing $4629.94 per ounce, while silver prices surged by 23%, reaching a new high of $86.22 per ounce [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai silver futures contract hit the daily limit multiple times, and the Shanghai gold contract rose over 5%, with A-share precious metal stocks collectively strengthening, including companies like Xiaocheng Technology and Shengda Resources, which saw gains exceeding 8% [1]. Group 2: Drivers of Price Increase - The core driver of the precious metals' rise is the escalating uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies, highlighted by an ongoing criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential misuse of funds related to office renovations [3]. - The division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions has intensified, with a record split of 9-3 in favor of rate cuts during the December meeting, further raising expectations for future rate cuts [3]. - The December core CPI data, which fell short of expectations, has also contributed to heightened rate cut anticipations, with the probability of a rate cut in April increasing from 38% to 42% [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The beginning of 2026 has seen a concentration of geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela, unrest in Iran, and ongoing tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have collectively diminished market risk appetite [4]. - Central banks worldwide have continued to increase their gold purchases, with the People's Bank of China adding gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, indicating sustained demand that supports gold prices in the medium to long term [4]. Group 4: Silver Demand Dynamics - Silver's exceptional price increase is attributed to a surge in industrial demand, with 75% of silver demand coming from industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which accounts for 35% of silver usage [4]. - The global photovoltaic installation is expected to grow by 30% in 2025, leading to an additional demand of 6000 tons of silver, while the rapid development of electric vehicles and AI servers further exacerbates the demand gap [4]. - Supply-side challenges, including an 8% year-on-year decline in silver production from major South American producers like Peru and Chile, have contributed to the supply-demand imbalance, making it a key factor in silver's price surge [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment regarding the sustainability of the precious metals rally, with optimistic views suggesting that ongoing Federal Reserve uncertainty and industrial demand growth will continue to drive prices higher [5]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach $4800 per ounce by Q4 2026, while Bank of America has set a target range for silver between $135 and $309 per ounce [5]. - Conversely, cautious perspectives highlight potential short-term correction risks and the influence of evolving variables, such as the outcome of Powell's investigation and subsequent U.S. economic data, which could reshape market expectations [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical commodities market is that most varieties are expected to show an oscillatory trend. For crude oil, supply - side concerns are intensifying, which will provide phased support for oil prices. For fuel oil, the short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may follow the oil price fluctuations, and it is recommended to short high - sulfur fuel oil on rallies. For asphalt, the price is expected to stabilize and strengthen. For polyester, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, while ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely. For rubber, the price is under pressure from inventory accumulation. For methanol, it is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. For polyolefins, they will continue to oscillate at the bottom. For PVC, the price will also maintain bottom - level oscillations [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - WTI February contract closed at $61.15 per barrel, up $1.65 or 2.77%. Brent March contract closed at $65.47 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.51%. SC2602 closed at 450.4 yuan per barrel, up 12.7 yuan or 2.90%. - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal's disruption, along with multiple factors, has halved the loading volume to about 900,000 barrels per day. Kazakhstan has diverted some oil to other routes. - API data shows an increase in US API crude, Cushing crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. - At least 4 Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea were attacked, and supply - side concerns are intensifying, providing phased support for oil prices. The view is oscillatory [1]. Fuel Oil - The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2603) rose 0.53% to 2,461 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) rose 1.66% to 3,066 yuan per ton. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in the short term, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support from the recovery of downstream demand. However, the entry of Venezuelan heavy crude may have a negative impact on high - sulfur spreads. - It is recommended to short high - sulfur fuel oil on rallies, and the view is oscillatory [2]. Asphalt - The main contract of asphalt (BU2602) fell 0.66% to 3,140 yuan per ton. - Due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, the expectation of tight processing raw materials has strengthened, and the refinery supply has decreased, driving up the price. - The market will be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation," and the price is expected to stabilize and strengthen. The view is oscillatory [2]. Polyester - TA605 closed at 5,140 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. EG2605 closed at 3,815 yuan per ton, down 1.68%. PX futures contract 603 closed at 7,282 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. - Geopolitical risks have raised the risk premium of crude oil, and there is a game between the downstream negative feedback and the rise in oil prices. The price of polyester is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely. The view is oscillatory [2][4]. Rubber - The main contract of natural rubber (RU2605) fell 155 yuan per ton to 15,975 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 170 yuan per ton to 12,840 yuan per ton. - In November 2025, the export volume of natural rubber decreased by 14.7% year - on - year and 29.8% month - on - month. - The rubber price rebounded in a general commodity - rising atmosphere, but it is under pressure from inventory accumulation after the low - production season. The view is oscillatory [4]. Methanol - The spot price in Taicang was 2,257 yuan per ton. - The arrival volume in January has decreased significantly, and the MTO device load has also declined. The port will face inventory - removal pressure, and the price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. The view is oscillatory [4]. Polyolefins - The mainstream price of PP in East China was 6,370 - 6,500 yuan per ton, and the profit margins of various production methods were negative. For PE, the prices of different types are given, and the profit margins of different production methods vary. - In January, there are partial temporary shutdowns and maintenance of upstream devices, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly. The demand will recover in early January but decline in late January due to the Spring Festival. - The inventory is expected to rise in late January, and polyolefins will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The view is oscillatory [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The market prices in East, North, and South China have adjusted. - The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand has slowed down. The market shows a structure of "weak reality and strong expectation." The export tax - refund policy change will increase the upward pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. The price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. The view is oscillatory [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The data table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical varieties on January 13th and 12th, 2026, as well as the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump's increased verbal attacks on Iran have intensified investors' concerns about US intervention and supply disruptions in Iran, which may threaten Iran's daily oil production of about 3.3 million barrels. Trump also said he would impose a 25% tariff on goods from countries "doing business" with Iran. - The situation in Iran has also exacerbated the bullish sentiment in the market. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal's disruption has halved the loading volume of Kazakh crude to about 900,000 barrels per day, but Kazakhstan has diverted some oil to other routes [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - There are price trend charts for the main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and paraxylene [12][14][16][18][20][23][24][26][27]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - There are basis trend charts for the main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][34][35][36][39][40]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - There are spread trend charts for different contracts of energy - chemical commodities, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - There are spread and ratio trend charts for different energy - chemical varieties, including crude oil (domestic - international, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [58][60][62][64]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - There are profit and processing - fee trend charts for energy - chemical products, including LLDPE production profit, PP production profit, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Members Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, Zhong Meiyan, with rich experience and many awards; the energy - chemical research director, Du Bingqin, also with many honors and in - depth industry research; the natural rubber/polyester analyst, Di Yilin, who has won some awards and is good at data analysis; and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst, Peng Haibo, with a background in futures - spot trading and a CFA - level 3 qualification [71][72][73][74].

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4634 per ounce before retreating, primarily due to a stronger US dollar, although geopolitical risks limited the downside [1] - The geopolitical landscape includes President Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran and missile attacks by Russia on multiple Ukrainian cities [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased following a criminal investigation into Chairman Powell by the Trump administration, drawing criticism from former Fed chairs and global central bank leaders [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that while spot gold hit a historical high, it experienced a significant pullback during New York trading hours, with profit-taking by investors contributing to the decline [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain steady during its January meeting, with predictions of two rate cuts this year, which could benefit gold as it does not yield interest [2] - The overall upward trend in gold appears to be stalling, with buyers failing to break through the $4650 per ounce level, which could have led to further gains towards $4700 [3] Group 3 - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that bullish momentum is weakening, remaining stable near overbought territory without achieving higher peaks [3] - For gold to maintain its upward trend, it must break above $4650 per ounce; otherwise, a drop below $4550 could push prices down to $4500, with $4400 as the next key downside target [3] Group 4 - Current resistance levels for gold are at $4631 and $4653, while support levels are at $4610, $4593, and $4588 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in mainland China is accelerating, benefiting sectors such as technology, healthcare, and non-ferrous metals, with continuous upward adjustments in profit expectations for the technology sector [1] - The semiconductor industry is also expected to benefit from AI-driven investments and domestic substitution demand [1] - Geopolitical risks are easing, and liquidity injections are favorable for the stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong, maintaining a neutral outlook for the Hong Kong stock market over the next 12 months [1] Group 2 - In the ESG (low-carbon) investment sector, governments reached a consensus at the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference to significantly increase investments in clean energy and low-carbon economies [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that total global investment in energy transition will amount to several trillion dollars, greatly promoting the development of renewable energy, energy storage technologies, and electric vehicles [1] - Low-carbon strategies are providing higher downside protection and relatively better returns compared to traditional stock strategies amid increasing volatility in the investment environment [1] Group 3 - The CEO of the company believes that the investment boom in artificial intelligence is not over and is not in a bubble phase, as the related industrial chain is benefiting from positive spillover effects [1] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the impact of tariffs on the global economy will continue to be a focal point for the market, with expectations of volatility due to market sensitivity to related news [2] - The company maintains a neutral outlook on global equities over the next 12 months, given that economic resilience exceeds previous expectations, while remaining cautious about sudden market news related to trade negotiations and geopolitical events [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus and the lack of confirmed conflicts. Precious metals remain bullish, and various commodities and financial products show different trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations. [2][3] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: US December CPI data boosts market expectations for a rate cut in April. API shows a significant weekly inventory build. Geopolitical tensions in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus in Q1 2026. [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows crude oil price movements. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand as a substitute for asphalt if Venezuelan heavy - oil supply is disrupted. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase, with a weakening fundamental outlook. [22] - **Asphalt**: Iranian geopolitical tensions lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, but asphalt's price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil. [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US December CPI data and Iranian tensions make precious metals bullish. [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper shows signs that support domestic refined copper exports. Chile raises its copper production target. [4] - **Aluminum**:沪铝 tests historical highs, but the break - through is unconfirmed. High profits prompt aluminum plants to consider selling - hedging. [5] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rise, but high prices may have a negative impact on downstream consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**:沪镍 falls, while stainless - steel market activity is high. Inventory changes show different trends for pure nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel. [10] - **Tin**:沪锡 trading is driven by increased funds. Indonesian tin exports are significant, and option trading amplifies price fluctuations. [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is active. Upstream sales strategies change, and demand remains strong. Inventory changes vary among different sectors. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: It has a weak supply - demand situation. Reduced production in the north is not enough to offset weak demand from downstream industries. [13] - **Polysilicon**: Prices continue to decline. The market trading logic has changed, and caution is advised. [14] Steel - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a bullish - oscillating trend. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - water production may bottom - out and rebound. [17][18] - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both suggest a strategy of buying on dips. They are affected by factors such as raw material prices, inventory, and demand from the iron - making industry. [19][20] - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern. Demand is weak, and supply is gradually recovering. [15] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is in a stalemate. Production increases, and downstream demand shows mixed trends. Short - term prices may decline slightly, but the downward space is limited. [24] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical factors cause significant price fluctuations. Overseas supply is low, but domestic demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increases is weakening. [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Cost - driven short - term price increases, but the fundamental situation is weak, and long - term de - stocking is difficult. [26] - **Styrene**: Cost - support is strengthened, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Rising oil prices are beneficial to the market. Supply and demand show different trends for each product. [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may strengthen in the long - term with potential de - capacity. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration may be compressed. [29] - **PX & PTA**: Geopolitical risks drive up prices, but downstream demand is weakening. [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations, and the long - term outlook is still under pressure. [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Demand for both is weakening in the short - term. Cost is the main driving factor, and long - term over - capacity is a pressure. [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is bearish. South American weather and US soybean exports are important factors to watch. [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is affected by bio - diesel expectations and supply - side factors. It is expected to be range - bound. [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The US Department of Agriculture report indicates a loose supply - demand situation. The market is affected by Sino - Canadian relations and inventory levels. [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybean prices are回调. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. [39] - **Corn**: The US corn harvest is large, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. It is expected to fluctuate widely. [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The futures market is oscillating. Short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term prices may form a double - bottom pattern. [41] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to strengthen in the first half of 2026 due to reduced supply and increased demand. [42] - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is bullish, but the domestic market is in the off - season. Demand is stable, and the planting area policy in Xinjiang is uncertain. [43] - **Sugar**: International sugar production shows different trends in different countries. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to increase, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. [44] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices rise. The market focus shifts to demand, and the high - quality fruit supply is tight. [45] - **Wood & Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. Low inventory provides some support. [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are stable. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share markets are expected to be range - bound and strong. Geopolitical situations need to be closely monitored. [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures show a bullish - flattening trend. The strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. [49] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: Maersk's price cuts indicate a weakening market. The 04 - contract valuation lacks a clear anchor, and far - month contracts are under pressure due to the expected resumption of Red Sea shipping. [21]