Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is around $4206.67 per ounce, with silver reaching a historical high of $58.95 per ounce, driven by weak U.S. employment data that has increased market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] - The ADP employment report indicated an unexpected decrease in private sector jobs in the U.S. for November, reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming Fed policy meeting, with traders estimating a nearly 90% probability of a cut [1][5] - Investors are awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a key inflation indicator preferred by the Fed, for further policy guidance [1][5] Group 2: Gold Technical Analysis - Gold exhibited a "high-low" oscillation pattern on Wednesday, with a maximum fluctuation range of $4194 to $4241, indicating a lack of clear trend continuation and a preference for high-level consolidation [2][6] - The daily chart shows gold maintaining above the 5-day moving average, with $4200 acting as a significant psychological support level, while the $4245-$4250 range serves as strong resistance [2][6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on the breakout strength of the oscillation range, with key levels of resistance at $4230-$4250 and support at $4190-$4170 [2][6] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The U.S. crude oil price is trading around $59 per barrel, with prices rising due to the lack of breakthroughs in U.S.-Russia talks regarding the Ukraine war, which diminishes the prospect of easing sanctions on Russian oil [3][7] - Brent crude futures increased by 0.4% to $62.67 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures rose by 0.5% to $58.95 per barrel; however, concerns over oversupply are limiting price increases [3][7] - Recent data from the EIA shows a comprehensive increase in U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories, exceeding market expectations and indicating ample supply in the market [3][7] Group 4: Oil Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a secondary oscillation pattern, with K-line fluctuations testing previous lows around $56; if this support level is broken, a mid-term downtrend may ensue [4][8] - Short-term trends show a downward bias, with MACD indicators suggesting bearish momentum is dominant [4][8] - Trading strategies recommend focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with short-term resistance at $60.5-$61.5 and support at $57.5-$56.5 [4][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper mine supply disruptions have been ongoing this year, leading to a decline in supply growth, while copper smelting capacity is expected to increase by over 2 million tons by 2025 and more than 1 million tons in 2026, exacerbating the conflict between mining and smelting [1] - The TC price has been maintained below -40 USD/ton since April this year, with long-term TC at only 21 USD/ton, and the expectation is that TC prices will remain low in 2026, increasing the probability of domestic copper smelting reductions [1] - The CSPT group's proposal to reduce production capacity by 10% could involve nearly 1 million tons of capacity, and the expectation of reduced copper smelting may further support rising copper prices [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have rapidly increased, with market expectations for a rate cut in December rising to 86.4%, which is likely to benefit both base and precious metals [1] - In the silver market, low inventory levels have supported prices reaching historical highs, with total silver inventory at the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange at 1,235 tons, close to a 10-year low, increasing the sensitivity of prices to supply-demand gaps [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Securities Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering industries such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the Chinese A-share market, with constituent stocks having larger market capitalizations and better liquidity [1]

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - Domestic and international copper prices have reached new highs, with LME copper futures hitting $11,540 per ton on December 3 and Shanghai copper reaching 91,450 yuan per ton on December 4 [1][2] - The price increase is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and regional tightness in global copper inventories, driven by anticipated high demand for copper in the AI era [1][3] - Analysts predict that the upward trend in copper prices may continue, but caution that negative factors or unmet demand expectations could lead to significant price corrections [1][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply Concerns - The global copper inventory is increasingly concentrated in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in Asia, with LME copper inventories at 162,150 tons as of December 3 [3][4] - The copper market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by reduced capital investment in copper resource development and increasing demand from renewable energy and AI sectors [3][5] - The potential for a "short squeeze" environment is noted, as the tightness in deliverable resources continues to support upward price momentum [2][4] Group 3: Impact on Industry Players - Different segments of the copper industry are affected variably by rising prices; overseas mines benefit the most, while smelting companies with high external copper ore procurement face greater challenges [5][6] - Copper processing enterprises are under pressure from rising procurement costs and low processing fees, which may lead to reduced operating rates [6][7] - Downstream industries, such as traditional copper users in cables and appliances, are experiencing significant cost pressures, while sectors like semiconductors are less affected due to their growth phase [6][7] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that copper prices may remain volatile, with potential for further increases, but also caution that high prices could suppress downstream consumption or lead to substitution [8][9] - Key factors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the recovery of copper supply in response to high prices, and the realization of copper consumption growth driven by AI and energy storage [9]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on December 4, with the main contract for the European shipping line rising over 3% [1] - The international copper and Shanghai copper contracts increased by over 2%, while other commodities like pulp, coke, silicon iron, corn, starch, coking coal, and asphalt saw gains exceeding 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1508.55 points, down 0.01% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2085.73 points, also down 0.01% [1] Group 2: European Shipping Line and Copper Market - The main contract for the European shipping line rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a strong gain of 3.32%, leading the commodity market [2] - Maersk's new shipping quotes for large containers increased slightly, indicating improved market sentiment and expectations for potential price increases in January due to traditional pre-Spring Festival demand [2] - The international copper market saw significant strength, with the main contract rising nearly 3% and Shanghai copper and tin contracts recording increases of 2.26% and 2.23%, respectively, reaching historical highs [3] Group 3: Rubber and Caustic Soda Market - All three major rubber contracts experienced declines, with BR rubber, natural rubber, and No. 20 rubber contracts falling by 1.97%, 1.25%, and 1.03%, respectively [4] - The increase in natural rubber inventory and seasonal production in major overseas producing areas contributed to the weak performance of rubber [4] - The main caustic soda contract fell by 1.92%, hitting a new historical low due to increased supply and accumulating inventory, with significant increases in liquid caustic soda stock reported [5]

2025.12. 04 本文字数：3001，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 国内外铜价创下新高。继12月3日LME（伦敦金属交易所）铜期货价格创出历史新高的11540美元/ 吨后，4日，沪铜和国际铜期货主力合约分别创下历史新高的91450元/吨、82430元/吨。 南华期货研究院高级总监傅小燕对第一财经称，这次铜价上涨主要是受到美联储降息预期以及全球铜 库存区域性紧张带来的双重溢价影响。核心关注点在于预期AI时代到来，对于铜的大量消耗需要足够 的铜矿进口，而全球铜库存转移背后反映出的全球资源争夺，势必造成区域性短缺风险。 对铜产业链企业的影响，华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇认为，产业链上中下游受到的影响 存在差异，海外矿山享受铜价上涨带来的绝大多数利润；冶炼环节，拥有铜矿资源的铜冶炼企业受影 响较小，铜矿外采占比较高的铜企业影响较大；铜加工企业成本攀升且加工费低位波动；下游用铜企 业面临成本压力。 关于后市行情预判，多位受访者认为，铜价上涨可能还没结束，一旦出现利空因素或者需求预期没有 如期兑现，铜价容易出现大幅调整。国信期货首席分析师顾冯达预计，铜价偏强运行，沪铜触及新高 后，或在90 ...

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has slightly retreated, trading at $4,201 per ounce in London and $4,241 per ounce for U.S. gold [1] - Domestic gold prices have fluctuated, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki offering gold jewelry at 1,328 yuan per gram, while other brands have seen minor price adjustments [1] - The gold recycling price is at 937 yuan per gram, with Industrial and Agricultural Bank gold bars priced at 972.23 yuan and 981.35 yuan respectively, indicating real-time price changes [1] Group 2 - Key factors supporting the high volatility of gold prices include weak U.S. ADP employment data, rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a weakening dollar [3] - Upcoming economic indicators such as the PCE inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting next week are critical events that could trigger significant market movements [3]

每日核心期货品种分析 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 04 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 04 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。集运欧线涨超 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and regional tightness in global copper inventories, with significant implications for the copper industry and its supply chain [1][2][4]. Price Movement - On December 3, LME copper futures reached a record high of $11,540 per ton, closing at $11,448.5 per ton, marking a 2.72% increase. On December 4, domestic copper futures also hit historical highs, with Shanghai copper at 90,980 yuan per ton and international copper at 82,080 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 2.26% and 2.96% respectively [2][3]. Supply Chain Impact - The impact of rising copper prices varies across the supply chain. Overseas mines benefit the most from price increases, while smelting companies with high external copper ore procurement face greater challenges. Copper processing companies are experiencing rising costs and low processing fees, leading to pressure on profit margins [6][7]. Inventory Dynamics - Global copper inventories are increasingly concentrated in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in Asia. As of December 3, LME copper inventory stood at 162,150 tons, with a significant reduction in registered warehouse receipts [3][4]. Future Price Predictions - Analysts suggest that copper prices may continue to rise, but potential negative factors or unmet demand expectations could lead to significant price corrections. The expectation of strong demand from AI and renewable energy sectors is a key driver, but the market remains cautious about high prices suppressing downstream consumption [9][10]. Market Conditions - The overall demand recovery in the domestic market remains weak, with manufacturing inventory replenishment cycles yet to start. This situation complicates risk management for companies across the copper supply chain, leading to increased competition and potential restructuring within the industry [8].

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。不过美国活跃石油钻井平台大 幅减少12座，提升了低油价对于美国原油增长受限的预期。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯 基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与 美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的 实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达 成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大楼将很快对 委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消 费旺季结束、美国11月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第九个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+持 续增产，中东地区出口增 ...

Economic and Market Dynamics - The November Challenger Job Cuts and Hiring Report will be released today, providing timely labor market data ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next week, despite typically being a secondary data point [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated uncertainty regarding the level to which interest rates can be raised, with a potential increase to 0.75% later this month [3] - In China, government advisors expect the GDP growth target to remain at 5% for 2026, amid deflationary pressures and weak consumer demand, with continued fiscal and monetary stimulus measures anticipated [3] Market Performance - The ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, contrary to expectations of an increase, primarily driven by losses in manufacturing jobs, while service sector employment remained stable [4] - The Eurozone's November composite PMI was revised up to 52.8, indicating robust service sector growth, which supports expectations for the European Central Bank to maintain current policy rates [5] - The UK PMI fell to 51.2 but still exceeded market expectations, indicating continued expansion in the private sector for the seventh consecutive month [5] Fixed Income and Forex Market - The British pound performed well due to the strong PMI data, while the Swiss CPI was below expectations but had little impact on the Swiss franc [8] - The euro strengthened against the US dollar, reaching 1.1670, supported by weak US economic data, while US Treasury and swap rates declined by 2-3 basis points [8]