长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美股与油价携手攀升提振资金流动性，隔周伦铝四连涨1.32%；沪铝社库小 幅累积限制上行空间，然需求有韧性、海外有扰动、库存低位支撑，今现铝或上涨。 【铝期货市场】：美股与油价携手攀升提振资金流动性，隔周伦铝走势强劲，最新收盘报价2956美元/ 吨，收涨39美元，涨幅1.32%，成交量21594手增加4742手，持仓量683334手增加8942手。周五晚间沪 铝偏强震荡，主力月2602合约最新收盘价报22245元/吨，涨205元，涨幅0.93%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月19日伦铝最新库存量报519600公吨，较上个交易日持平。 长江铝业网讯：12月19日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报21820元/吨，涨90元；广东现货A00铝锭价 报21750元/吨，涨100元。 宏观层面，11月美国成屋销售环比微增0.5%，折合年率413万户。不过，经济不确定性叠加高抵押贷款 利率，抑制了购房需求，成屋库存降至八个月低点。这反映出消费者信心低迷，密西根大学12月消费者 信心指数终值为52.9，低于预期，进一步印证了经济放缓态势。在此背景下，市场对美联储降息的预期 愈发强烈。同时， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, platinum and palladium prices were strong, outperforming gold and silver. The domestic platinum and palladium prices outperformed their overseas counterparts. The main palladium futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit on Wednesday and Thursday, with a weekly increase of 23.3%. The main platinum futures contract rose 18% weekly, far exceeding the increase of silver futures. The international gold price maintained a high - level volatile and strong trend [3][6]. - The unexpectedly slow US inflation last week strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, some economists suspected that the government shutdown led to data distortion. The selection process of the Fed Chairman is still ongoing, and the shortlist has been narrowed to four people. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% last Friday, earlier than market expectations, which may lead to the reversal of the yen carry - trade, capital outflows from US Treasuries and US stocks, and an increase in US Treasury yields, putting pressure on the US dollar index and US stocks [3][7]. - The sharp rise in platinum and palladium prices is mainly driven by tight supply and capital. After the silver price hit new highs, platinum and palladium, which also have industrial attributes, have been favored by investors. The opening restrictions on platinum and palladium futures by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange last week will suppress market sentiment, and it is expected that the volatility of platinum and palladium will be very intense in the near future [3][8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, and total open interest of various precious metal contracts, including SHFE gold, Shanghai Gold T + D, COMEX gold, SHFE silver, Shanghai Silver T + D, COMEX silver, GFEX platinum, platinum 9995, NYMEX platinum, GFEX palladium, and NYMEX palladium [4]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The strong performance of platinum and palladium is supported by macro, fundamental, and capital factors. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation provides macro support for precious metals. The fundamental logic of platinum and palladium's rise is similar to that of silver, mainly due to supply shortages and strong industrial demand. The supply of platinum and palladium is under pressure, and the continuous inflow of funds into platinum ETFs has made the supply in the spot market even tighter [6][9]. - The US inflation slowed down unexpectedly in November, with the core CPI rising 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021. The Fed Chairman candidate Hasset said there is a lot of room for the Fed to cut interest rates, but some economists suspect data distortion. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to 224,000, reversing the previous surge [6]. - The New York Fed President Williams said there is no urgent need to cut interest rates again, strengthening the market's expectation of a short - term pause in rate cuts. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth time, reiterating that inflation will return to the 2% target in the medium term without clear easing guidance. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% last Friday, which may lead to capital outflows from US Treasuries and US stocks [7]. 3. Important Data Information - In November, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The average hourly wage increased 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021 [10]. - In October, US retail sales were flat month - on - month, slightly lower than the expected 0.1% increase, mainly dragged down by a 1.6% decline in auto sales. Core retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the expected 0.4% increase [10]. - In November, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations and down from 3.0% in September. The core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year [10]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December fell to 51.8, a five - month low. The preliminary value of the service PMI fell from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI fell to 53, both hitting six - month lows [11]. - The final value of the University of Michigan's one - year inflation expectation for US consumers in December was 4.2%, and the five - year inflation expectation was 3.2% [11]. - The final value of the US consumer confidence index in December rose to 52.9, higher than 51.0 in November but far lower than 74.0 in December last year [11]. - Since the end of November, the platinum ETF holdings have increased by more than 3 tons, and the palladium ETF holdings are near historical highs, which has further boosted the prices of platinum and palladium [11]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from December 23, 2025, non - futures company members or clients are restricted to a maximum of 500 daily opening positions for platinum futures contracts PT2606, PT2608, PT2610, PT2612 and palladium futures contracts PD2606, PD2608, PD2610, PD2612 [12]. 4. Related Data Charts - The report includes various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, and other data of precious metals, such as SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, COMEX and LBMA gold and silver inventories, and the net long positions of non - commercial traders in COMEX gold and silver [13][15][18].

2025 年 12 月 22 日 美联储降息预期保持较高 铝价偏强震荡 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，宏观面美国11月非农及CPI皆低于预 期，偏弱的就业数据和回落的通胀提升美联储降息 预期，目前市场定价3月和7月各一次降息。但政府关 门导致市场对11月美通胀数据存疑。基本面供应端 国内及印尼新增产能继续释放增量，国内铝水比例 小幅下降，供应小增。消费端数据中心和储能板块年 末贡献消费增量，整体消费仍具韧性，周度开工率仅 小幅下滑。社会库存出库保持高位，铝锭库存较上周 减少0.6万吨至57.8万吨，铝棒库存12 ...

锌周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2025 年 12 月 22 日 海外加速交仓 锌价承压震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价承压回落。宏观面，美国 11 月非农数据 喜忧参半，通胀数据低于预期，且美联储官员释放鸽派信号， 降息预期略有提升。国内 11 月经济数据延续偏弱，市场期 待政策加码助力 26 年经济实现开门红。 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 风险因素：宏观风险扰动，炼厂减产低于预期 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，LME 将从 26 年 7 月实施持仓限额，LME 加速交仓， 库存回升至近 10 万吨，且 LME0-3 现货由前期高升水转为小 贴水，挤仓担忧快速降温，内外锌价均有回落。不过沪 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.1%报 4368.7 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 3.34%报 67.395 美 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/盎司，刷新历史新高。沪金收涨 0.44%报 984.58 元/克，沪银涨 3.02%报 15747.00 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 19 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1052.54 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 增加 47.95 吨，当前持仓量为 16066.24 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 21%，维持利 | | | | | 率不变的 ...

来源：金十数据 受地缘政治紧张局势恶化和市场对美联储明年将进一步降息的预期推动，周一，黄金、白银价格双双创 下历史新高。 现货黄金价格冲上4380美元上方，再度刷新历史新高，白银一度涨超2%，将历史新高刷新至68美元上 方。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 受地缘政治紧张局势恶化和市场对美联储明年将进一步降息的预期推动，周一，黄金、白银价格双双创 下历史新高。 目前，交易员们预计美联储将在2026年降息两次，尽管美国总统特朗普一直主张大幅降息，但上周美国 公布的一系列经济数据未能为前景提供更清晰的指引。对于不支付利息的黄金和白银来说，宽松的货币 政策无疑是一大利好。 地缘政治紧张局势也增强了贵金属的避险吸引力。美国加强了对委内瑞拉的石油封锁，加大了对马杜罗 政府的压力，与此同时，乌克兰首次在地中海袭击了一艘来自俄罗斯"影子船队"的油轮，中东局势也开 始紧张。 贵金属市场正在结束一个具有历史意义的一年，黄金和白银都将创下1979年以来最大的年度涨幅。白银 价格已翻倍有余，黄金价格也 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market and its response to macroeconomic conditions, particularly influenced by U.S. economic data and monetary policy expectations [1][2][4][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Indicators**: Weak U.S. non-farm data and rising unemployment (4.6%) alongside a decrease in core CPI growth (2.6%) strengthen expectations for potential Fed rate cuts in the coming year [2][4]. 2. **Domestic Economic Conditions**: November economic data in China shows a decline in consumption and investment, with retail sales growth at a three-year low of 1.3%. However, achieving a 5% GDP growth target for the year remains feasible [4][14]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: The A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound towards the end of the year and early next year, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips to capitalize on the upcoming spring market [1][5]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on three key areas for investment: - **Technology**: Including commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, semiconductors, and robotics, which are supported by policy and active funding [5]. - **Domestic Demand Expansion**: Opportunities in sectors like retail, food and beverage, and home appliances due to policies promoting domestic consumption [5][12]. - **Cyclical Sectors**: With expectations of PPI turning positive, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and renewable energy are highlighted [5]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market, particularly long-term bonds, remains attractive with expected yields between 1.6% and 1.9%, with current yields above the central tendency of 1.75% [8]. 2. **Risk Appetite**: Changes in risk appetite will influence equity market performance, with a balanced approach recommended between growth and value stocks [9]. 3. **Electronic Communication Sector**: The sector is poised for growth due to favorable liquidity conditions, with a focus on advanced semiconductor processes and packaging [10]. 4. **Storage Device Opportunities**: Companies in the storage device sector are expected to benefit from government support and fiscal subsidies, with specific recommendations for firms like Zhongwei and Huazhong [11]. 5. **Consumer Sector Recovery**: The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in tourism and duty-free industries, with specific brands identified as having strong growth potential [13]. 6. **Macroeconomic Environment**: The overall macroeconomic environment is weak, but there is optimism for policy measures that could stimulate the market, particularly as the new year approaches [14][15]. Conclusion - The A-share market is navigating through a period of uncertainty influenced by both domestic and international factors. Strategic investments in technology, domestic demand, and cyclical sectors are recommended, while monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy changes will be crucial for future market performance [1][5][14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium to long term; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; Rebar is for range trading; Glass is recommended to be sold on rallies [1][8][10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, tin, and gold are for range trading; Aluminum is advised to be observed more closely; Nickel is recommended to be observed or sold on rallies; Silver is suggested to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions; Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [1][11][12][18]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; Caustic soda and soda ash are advised to be observed temporarily; Polyolefins are expected to be in a relatively weak oscillation [1][19][22][25]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation; PTA is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner; Apples and jujubes are expected to be in a relatively weak oscillation [1][29][30][31]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, short - term contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution; Eggs are expected to have limited upside; Corn is advised to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedged on rallies by grain holders; For soybean meal, short - term contracts are to be treated strongly on dips, and long - term contracts are to be treated weakly; Oils are recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [1][31][33][36]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the impact of factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and industry supply - demand changes on different futures markets, and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][5][8]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as the Fed Chair competition, central bank policies, and international political situations, the market's main line rotates quickly. After the recent support from both positive and negative meetings ends, index futures are expected to trade in a range. In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Considering factors like the capital market meeting and the upcoming release of the loan prime rate, if the ultra - long - term yield does not reach a new high and the capital rate remains stable, the short - and medium - term rates may stabilize. Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal support. With high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand from downstream steel mills, and potential support from domestic coal mine production cuts and cost lines, short - term trading is recommended, mainly using range - right - side trading [8]. - **Rebar**: After the important meetings, the market enters a policy vacuum period. Although there is a weakening expectation for steel exports, the current supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Steel prices have limited upside and downside, and range trading is recommended [8]. - **Glass**: With factors such as the increase in raw material prices, weak demand from downstream processing plants, and the failure of the expected cold - repair of production capacity, the glass market is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies, and the near - term contracts are expected to continue to weaken [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global copper concentrate supply is still tight, but factors such as year - end capital shortages and high copper prices suppressing spot purchases limit the upside. Copper prices are expected to trade in a high - level range, with the main contract of Shanghai copper expected to trade between 89,500 - 95,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: With the increase in production capacity, the entry into the demand off - season, and the high - level volatility of aluminum prices suppressing demand, it is recommended to reduce long positions or observe [12]. - **Nickel**: Due to the possible loosening of nickel ore supply and the surplus pattern of refined nickel, it is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: With the tight supply of tin ore and the weak consumption of downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaics, tin prices are expected to continue to be in a relatively strong oscillation [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to factors such as the increase in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold are expected to rise. For silver, hold long positions and be cautious about new positions; for gold, use range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and considering the risks of mining certificates in Yichun, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high开工, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to macro data, policies, and cost factors [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high inventory and the possible impact of alumina production cuts, it is recommended to observe temporarily and pay attention to the procurement volume of downstream industries and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [21]. - **Styrene**: Due to factors such as the accumulation of US gasoline inventory and the reduction of pure benzene demand, and the limited rebound space after the increase in factory load, styrene is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [22]. - **Rubber**: With the high price of overseas raw materials and the large accumulation of domestic inventory, rubber prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the operating rate of tire enterprises [23]. - **Urea**: With the increase in maintenance devices and the decrease in daily output, but still high in the long - term, and the weakening of agricultural demand and the increase in supply pressure in the long - term, urea prices are expected to be in a weak oscillation [24]. - **Methanol**: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of the downstream methanol - to - olefins operating rate, and the weak traditional demand, the inventory of enterprises and ports shows different trends. Attention should be paid to the impact of the situation in Iran on methanol prices [25]. - **Polyolefins**: With the weakening of PE demand and the relatively stable PP supply and demand, polyolefins are expected to be in a weak oscillation. The PE main contract is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and the PP main contract is expected to trade in a range [25][26]. - **Soda Ash**: With the oversupply situation and the increase in production costs, and the mitigation of the supply - demand contradiction after the reduction of supply, it is recommended to observe temporarily [27]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With the stable consumption of new cotton and the policy expectation of the planting area in Xinjiang, the prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [29]. - **PTA**: Due to the uncertainty of the international oil situation and the OPEC+ production - suspension decision, the price of PTA has increased. With the continuation of de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner, and the short - term range of 4,600 - 4,900 yuan/ton should be focused on [29][30]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With the stable price of stored apples and the slow progress of jujube acquisition and the slight loosening of prices, both are expected to be in a weak oscillation [30][31]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the demand is boosted by the winter solstice pickling, but the supply pressure is still high. In the long term, although the production capacity is being reduced, it is still above the equilibrium level. Short - term contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution [31][33]. - **Eggs**: Currently, the supply is sufficient, but the supply pressure is gradually weakening. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait for rallies to hedge for short - term contracts, and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and external policies [33][34]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price may be under pressure due to the increase in grain sales. In the long term, although the cost support is strong, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the upside is limited. Grain holders can hedge on rallies [35]. - **Soybean Meal**: The near - term contracts are supported by cost and de - stocking expectations, while the long - term contracts are affected by the expected high yield in South America and cost reduction. Range trading is recommended, and spot enterprises can fix prices on dips [36]. - **Oils**: Due to factors such as the poor demand for US soybeans, the expected high yield in South America, and the improvement of the domestic supply situation, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [36][37][41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent US CPI data indicates a significant cooling of inflation, which strengthens market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, providing support for gold prices [1][2] - The market sentiment is expected to remain subdued as it approaches the Christmas holiday, with trading activity likely to continue at a low level [2][4] - Technical analysis shows that gold is in a high-level adjustment phase, with support levels at $4320 and $4300, and resistance levels at $4356 and $4374 [1][4] Group 2 - Following the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, there are speculations about two additional rate cuts in 2026 due to significant downward risks in the labor market [2] - The recent non-farm payroll data and CPI data further indicate a cooling labor market and inflation, reinforcing expectations for future rate cuts [2] - The daily chart indicates that gold has maintained an upward trend since stabilizing in November, approaching historical highs, with short-term technical indicators showing a slight bullish advantage for gold [4]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.22 08:21:15 周一 贵金属与工业金属:美11月CPI降温推 动价格走强 【12月22日消息,美国11月CPI超预期降温推动商 品价格上涨】 12月22日消息,美国11月CPI超预期 降温,使市场上修对美联储2026年降息幅度的预 期。黄金、白银、铂把等贵金属价格随之走强, 锡、铜、铝等工业金属表现也较为强势。充裕的流 动性和供给的强约束相互作用,推动商品价格不断 挑战阶段性高点。此外,相关国家愈发重视基础原 材料对发展的重要性,甚至用关税手段获取这类产 品。这加剧了市场的区域性缺口,进一步推动了商 品价格的上行。 【12月22日消息，美国11月CPI超预期降温推动商品价格上涨】12月22日消息，美国11月CPI超预期降 温，使市场上修对美联储2026年降息幅度的预期。黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格随之走强，锡、铜、 铝等工业金属表现也较为强势。充裕的流动性和供给的强约束相互作用，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性 高点。此外，相关国家愈发重视基础原材料对发展的重要性，甚至用关税手段获取这类产品。这加剧了 市场的区域性缺口，进一步推动 ...