| 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | | 现价 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 41317.43 | | 564.47 | 1.39% | -2.88% | | 2 | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | | 17977.73 | | 266.99 | 1.51% | -6.90% | | 3 | SPX | 标普500 | | 5686.67 | | 82.53 | 1.47% | -3.31% | | 名称 | | | 现价 | | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 英国富时100 | | | 8596.35 | | ‍රිමි 25 | | 1.17% | 5.18% | | 法国CAC40 | | | 7770.48 | | 176.61 | | 2.33% | 5.28% | | 德国DAX | | | 23086.65 | | 589.67 | | 2.62% | 15.96% | 本周以来，道琼斯工业指数涨3%，标普500指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate has strengthened significantly, reaching its highest level since April 4, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions and positive consumer sentiment during the May Day holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Offshore RMB Exchange Rate - The offshore RMB against the USD rose by over 370 points, peaking at 7.24, the highest since April 4 [2]. - Analysts suggest that signs of easing trade tensions have led to a release of bullish market sentiment, contributing to a collective rebound in global markets [2]. Group 2: May Day Holiday Consumption - Consumption during the May Day holiday exceeded market expectations, with historical highs in transportation data. The national railway is expected to send 144 million passengers, a 4.9% increase year-on-year [3]. - The aviation sector anticipates a total of 10.75 million passengers over the five-day holiday, averaging 2.15 million per day, marking an 8% year-on-year increase [3]. - The influx of foreign tourists to China has surged, with inbound travel orders increasing by 173% during the holiday, driven by favorable policies and tax refund services [3][4]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that the bond market signals a need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with traders expecting a total cut of 100 basis points by the end of the year [5][6]. - The current two-year U.S. Treasury yield is 3.717%, below the federal funds rate of 4.33%, suggesting market pressure for a rate cut [5]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to influence market expectations regarding the Fed's rate decisions, with economists predicting a lower job growth figure compared to March [7].

中国休假第一天，全球市场出现"一切皆涨，唯有黄金下跌"的景象： 而在此之前，央视旗下社交媒体账号玉渊谭天援引不具名消息人士表示，美国近来已通过多种渠道主动 与中国接触，希望就关税问题进行谈判。 但细看美股走势，似乎已经提前消化了中美贸易形势好转的消息——因为其开盘即涨，但随后逐步回吐 涨幅。特朗普多次在公开场合释放"对华友好"信号，最初阶段能极大提振市场风险偏好；但随着次数增 多，市场对同类表态的敏感度下降，所谓"新闻免疫力"就逐渐形成。市场在消息刚出时抢跑，但真正看 到落地细节不足时就回落。 还有一个坏消息值得关注。市场突然意识到对美联储的降息预期过高，开始解除降息押注。交易员预计 6月降息的可能性为58%，低于周四早些时候的68%。然而昨晚公布的数据显示，美国上周初请失业人 士大增、4月ISM制造业PMI超预期下滑，这本应增强"降息必要性"。如果市场完全解除6月降息押注， 那么流动性边际将迅速收紧——资金成本抬升，对股市、信贷市场以及新兴市场都是压力。换句话说， 这种"解除降息押注"本身就可能成为下一轮下跌的导火索。 世界仍旧面临一场惊涛骇浪。（来源：华尔街情报圈） 本文源自：金融界 - 美国股市全线上涨 ...

换资前言： 策略一：黄金反弹3230-3235附近分批做空（买跌）十分之二仓位，止损6个点，目标3210-3200附近， 破位看3190一线；（策略具有时效性，更多实时布局策略在实盘学员内部公布。） 大家好！ 五一假期祝大家节日快乐，在路途一路顺风。同时提醒各位交易者务必注意好风险控制。人 无远虑，必有近忧，对待行情也同样如此，行情的涨跌不是靠个人主观意志所决定的，而是充斥着多于 空的搏杀，所以，选择远远大于努力，择良师，将会获益匪浅，如果你还在盲目的交易，天天除了套单 就是锁单，那么2025年！你该改变了！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四(5月1日)晚间，美国劳工部公布了备受瞩目的初请失业金数据，市场瞬间掀起波澜。现货黄金在初 请数据公布后的短线上涨反映了市场对经济不确定性的避险需求，但其涨势受限，未能突破3230美元/ 盎司的阻力位。分析称，即便美联储降息，黄金短期内也难以改变下行趋势，原因在于美元指数和美债 收益率的反弹正在压制黄金的避险吸引力。 该分析师进一步指出，黄金既受益于"经济放缓→降息预 期"的利好，又受制于"消费韧性→美元走强"的利空。这种矛盾使得黄金短期内 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the market turbulence caused by Trump's tariff policies, global stock markets experienced a surprising "V-shaped" rebound in April, largely due to measures taken by the Trump administration to soften trade policies, which reassured investors about potential government intervention if economic data worsened [1][19][20]. Market Performance - In April, the S&P 500 index fell by only 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 3.2%, and the Nasdaq index actually rose by 0.9%. The Nasdaq experienced a maximum drawdown of 16% in the first week but rebounded by approximately 18% in the following weeks [4][9]. - The Dow and S&P 500 indices have seen seven consecutive days of gains, with the S&P 500's increase over this period being the largest since November 2020 [3][2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of the year, yet the stock market showed strong rebounds, with the Dow Jones up by 0.3% and the S&P 500 up by 0.1% on the day of the contraction announcement [2]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a wide fluctuation of 50 basis points in April, closing at 4.173%, slightly down from 4.245% a month prior [7]. Asset Class Performance - The U.S. dollar fell over 4% in April, marking its largest monthly decline since November 2022 and the second-largest since September 2010 [10]. - Gold prices increased by nearly 6%, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains, while Bitcoin surged by 14%, achieving its best monthly performance since the election-driven rally in November [11]. - Conversely, WTI crude oil had its worst monthly performance since November 2021, closing at its lowest level since February 2021 [12]. Market Divergence - There is a notable divergence in U.S. economic data, with strong "hard data" contrasting with collapsing "soft data," leading to investor confusion regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [13][15]. - Institutional investors remain cautious despite the S&P 500's 14% rise since April 7, while retail investors are aggressively increasing their positions, particularly in the Nasdaq market, reflecting a more optimistic sentiment [16][17]. Market Logic Behind Rebound - The market's recovery is attributed to the Trump administration's measures to soften trade policies, including a 90-day tariff suspension and exemptions for tech products, which have made investors believe that further government action will be taken if economic conditions deteriorate [19][20]. - Weak economic data has fueled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reviving the "bad news is good news" market logic [23]. Historical Context - The April market rebound presents both good and bad news for investors. Historically, major monthly drawdowns have often led to subsequent gains, with 9 out of 10 instances showing positive performance in the following months. However, the exception in December 1973 during the "Nixon Shock" raises concerns about potential stagnation [25][26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant volatility during the May Day holiday, with spot gold prices dropping over $50 in a single day, falling below $3240 per ounce, and showing a cumulative decline of over 5% from historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in gold prices was influenced by multiple factors, including a easing of international trade tensions, as the U.S. is set to announce the first batch of trade agreements and potentially lower some tariffs, which alleviated global economic risk concerns and suppressed gold's safe-haven appeal [1] - Investor profit-taking due to heightened fear of high prices further exacerbated the drop in gold prices [1] Group 2: Regulatory Response - Regulatory bodies acted swiftly in response to the volatility, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusting trading fees, margins, and price limits for gold futures to mitigate market risks [1] - Several banks issued urgent warnings, advising investors to approach precious metal investments with caution due to increased volatility [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressure on gold prices, there remains a divergence in market sentiment regarding future trends, with some economic data suggesting a potential resurgence of safe-haven demand, while expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could provide upward momentum for gold [2] - Long-term support factors for gold prices include continued accumulation by global central banks, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of a weakening U.S. dollar, which may drive prices higher again [2] - The key variables for future gold price movements may hinge on the timing of Federal Reserve policy shifts and whether the global economy achieves a "soft landing" [2]

原油月报 ——宏观情绪缓和 静待OPEC+会议 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-04-30 04 后市研判 行情PA回RT顾01 宏观叠加基本面利空 原油价格大幅下跌 4月份原油价格在宏观层面叠加基本面利空的影响下，跌破前期低点并创2021年8月以来新低， 此后在宏观压力边际转弱及OPEC+扩大补偿减产规模的利好支撑下，原油价格企稳反弹，但是宏观 层面的利空并未实质消除，特朗普政策的关税政策对全球经济的冲击逐渐显现，全球主要经济体经 济数据环比走弱，同时，OPEC+产量政策转向及内部分歧的影响下，原油中长期供应宽松的格局难 以逆转，原油价格再次承压，存在二次探底的风险。 宏观PA分RT析02 关税压力缓和 不确定依旧存在 Ø 开启关税战。2025年4月3日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立10%的"最低基准关税"， 并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。 Ø 暂缓对等关税执行。北京时间4月10日凌晨，美国总统特朗普在其Truth Social社交媒体上发帖称，将对一些国家暂停征收"对等关税"，在90 天内对多数国家关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of recent U.S. trade policies and economic indicators on the gold market, indicating a complex interplay between short-term pressures and long-term safe-haven demand [2][3] - President Trump signed an executive order to alleviate tariff impacts on automakers, while the U.S. Commerce Secretary revealed a secret trade agreement, aiming to reduce market anxiety [2] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a historical high of $162 billion in March, potentially dragging down Q1 GDP by nearly 2 percentage points, raising concerns about economic performance [2] Group 2 - The consumer confidence index fell to a five-year low in April, and job openings dropped by 288,000 in March, signaling economic weakness [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its Q1 GDP forecast to a contraction of 0.8%, reflecting growing pessimism among economists [2] - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, the long-term safe-haven logic remains intact, as indicated by David Meger, who noted that the recent price correction is merely technical [2] Group 3 - Current gold T+D prices are at 780.88 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.49%, and trading has seen a high of 786.00 yuan and a low of 779.65 yuan [3] - Resistance levels for gold are observed at 835-840 yuan, while support is seen at 760-765 yuan [3]

Domestic Macro: Important Dynamics and Focus Points - The Politburo meeting at the end of April indicated that incremental policies will be introduced based on the situation, with potential for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - Attention is needed on whether relevant policies will be implemented, as well as the impact of significant overseas data releases and changes in US trade policies during the May Day holiday on domestic markets [1] Overseas Macro: Key Data and Policy Impact - The US continues to signal trade easing, with new trade policy signals being closely monitored for their market impact [1] - During the May Day holiday, the US will release GDP data for Europe and the US for Q1, along with April non-farm payroll and PMI data, which are critical as they represent the first monthly data following US tariff policies [1] - The potential cooling of the economy could either bolster optimistic rate cut expectations, enhancing global risk appetite, or raise concerns about US stagflation risks, putting pressure on risk assets [1] Stock Indices: Mixed Signals and Range-Bound Expectations - The A-share market has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points, driven by increased external demand pressure and the implementation of domestic policies [1] - The resilience of the index is supported by macro policies aimed at stabilizing employment, but there are concerns about insufficient domestic fundamentals and ongoing disturbances from US tariff policies [1] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations influenced by performance disclosures and the interplay of policy expectations, trade policies, and earnings reports during the period from late April to mid-May [1] Gold/Silver: Market Disturbances and Uncertainty in Trends - The easing of the US-China tariff conflict and potential agreements in the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical situation have reduced risk aversion, leading to alternating rebounds in risk asset prices and high adjustment risks for precious metals [1] - However, enhanced expectations for US rate cuts and the continued low levels of the US dollar index and real yields on US Treasuries provide some support for precious metals [1] - The upcoming release of key US economic data during the May Day holiday will be crucial, as it could influence rate cut expectations and subsequently impact gold prices, with potential for fluctuations based on market sentiment regarding US stagflation risks [1]