Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic equipment sector in A-shares has seen a significant rise due to major silicon wafer companies raising their prices, improving industry profit expectations and reflecting strong terminal demand with a 41.9% year-on-year increase in solar power generation capacity as of the end of November [1][8]. Price Adjustments - On December 25, four leading silicon wafer companies collectively raised their prices, with 183N wafers priced at 1.4 yuan per piece, 210RN at 1.5 yuan per piece, and 210N at 1.7 yuan per piece, resulting in an average increase of 12% [4]. - The price increase is attributed to significant rises in upstream silicon material costs, with the average transaction price for multi-crystalline silicon n-type raw materials at 53,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.32% [5]. Market Dynamics - The slight increase in multi-crystalline silicon prices and moderate transaction volume indicate a gradual recovery of market confidence, with expectations for both volume and price stabilization in the near term [6]. - The cost pressures from rising prices are being passed down to downstream components, with leading companies like LONGi Green Energy and JinkoSolar raising their prices by 0.02 to 0.05 yuan per watt [6]. Industry Actions - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" initiative, with the establishment of a platform for integrating and acquiring multi-crystalline silicon capacity to address excessive competition [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has indicated a focus on capacity regulation and the orderly exit of outdated capacities, aiming to enhance industry standards and reduce price competition [8]. Demand and Growth - As of the end of November, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.79 billion kilowatts, with solar power capacity exceeding 1.16 billion kilowatts, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 41.9% [8]. - The cumulative scale of solar power generation from January to November was 27.489 million kilowatts, with an additional installed capacity of 2.202 million kilowatts in November alone [8]. Future Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is expected to experience a positive trend, with improvements in profitability across the main industry chain and a gradual recovery of the pricing system [9]. - Despite potential slowdowns in new installations and supply-demand imbalances in 2026, the ongoing de-involution efforts are anticipated to accelerate market clearing and reshape the industry landscape [9].

国内心局 2025 年 12 月 26 日 开局之年, 地方如何"因地制宜" ? 部委与地方学习中央经济工作会议精神解析 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释 放的增量信息与政策信号有何深意？本文分析，可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体,突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后,中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方 向，密集开展会议精神的学习、解读与部署工作。各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消 带结构演变等,财税部门聚焦财力保障,经济大省侧重开放布局,边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻 性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。融资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"， 与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变化。 内需方面，中财办提出把握消费结构性变化,坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。其指出"我国 正在从以商品消费为主转向商品消费和服务消费并重"，契合今年消费现状；投资方面则聚焦 消费类基建,并提出"靠前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing significant gains, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 1.88% as of the report, driven by strong performances in lithium battery and fluorochemical stocks [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) reached a maximum intraday increase of 2.23% [1][8]. - Key stocks in the sector include Enjie Co., which surged over 9%, and other notable performers like Dofluorid, Xingyuan Material, and Guangwei Composites, all rising over 8% [1][8]. - The basic chemical sector attracted significant capital inflow, with over 8.7 billion yuan net inflow on the day, ranking third among 30 sectors [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The lithium carbonate market is facing intensified competition, with reports of some companies halting production for maintenance due to significant price discrepancies between long-term contracts and spot prices [3][11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for order regulation and innovation in key industries such as new energy vehicles and lithium batteries [3][11]. - Analysts predict that the chemical industry will see a negative growth in capital expenditure starting in 2024, with supply-side contractions expected due to the "anti-involution" trend and the clearing of outdated capacities [11]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics and rising industry prosperity [11][12]. - The chemical ETF (516020) is recommended for efficient exposure to the sector, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [12][13]. - Key investment directions include sectors poised for recovery, leading companies driven by capital expenditure and R&D, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand or domestic substitution [11][12].

Overview - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the renewable energy sector, highlighting that the demand for offshore wind power in China and Europe is increasing, leading to a rise in foundation demand and profit recovery for wind turbines. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue driving the photovoltaic sector, particularly with the expansion of perovskite technology. Overall, while short-term installation demand for renewable energy globally may be weak, there are structural opportunities in the market [1]. Key Points Supporting the Rating - The "anti-involution" trend is stabilizing wind turbine prices, enhancing profitability for manufacturers. China's offshore wind projects are becoming economically viable, contributing significantly to installed capacity. The demand for offshore wind in Europe and emerging markets is also on the rise [3]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the "anti-involution" policy remains the main theme, with a focus on the potential for capacity exits in battery and module production, as well as the industrialization potential of perovskite technology. Investment should prioritize growth-oriented new technology directions and the main industry chain benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend [3]. Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report suggests prioritizing investments in the turbine segment, which is expected to recover profitability, and in the foundation segment that is progressing quickly in Europe. The offshore wind market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on deep-sea projects [3]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policy's impact on the industry, particularly regarding the exit of inefficient capacity and the enhancement of efficiency in battery and module production [3]. Long-term Outlook for Renewable Energy Demand - The report indicates that China's renewable energy demand is expected to remain robust in the long term, with an average annual installation capacity of over 400GW projected from 2025 to 2035. This is driven by the country's energy security needs and the ongoing transition to a low-carbon economy [13][16]. - The "136 Document" is noted for guiding the development of renewable energy projects towards market-oriented pricing, which is expected to stabilize project returns and promote high-quality development in the sector [31]. Photovoltaic Sector Insights - The report anticipates a moderate decline in photovoltaic installations in 2026 due to a phase of pre-installation in 2025, with projected installations of 290GW in 2025 and 180GW in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 38% [33]. - The report highlights that the European photovoltaic market is facing growth challenges, with a forecasted installation of 64.2GW in 2025, indicating a slight decline. The U.S. market is also expected to experience pressure on growth due to policy adjustments [34][37]. Perovskite Technology Potential - Perovskite technology is identified as a key area for enhancing competitiveness in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, with expectations for significant breakthroughs in industrialization by leading manufacturers in 2026 [33][44].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for structural changes in domestic demand and the concept of "anti-involution" across three levels [2][3][41] - The central financial office highlights the importance of leaving room for future risks in fiscal policy and the forward-looking, scientific adjustment of monetary policy [2][41] - The focus on optimizing consumption structure indicates a shift from commodity consumption to a balance between commodity and service consumption, aligning with current consumption trends [2][48] Group 2 - Investment strategies should combine investments in physical infrastructure and human capital, with a focus on consumer-related infrastructure projects [11][51] - The central financial office plans to implement major projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan and guide private investment towards high-tech and service sectors [11][51] - The emphasis on establishing a unified national market and "anti-involution" measures requires precise actions from the market, government, and enterprises [3][54] Group 3 - The fiscal and tax departments are focused on ensuring financial stability while addressing local fiscal difficulties, including the issuance of long-term special government bonds [4][58] - Financial regulatory bodies are using various tools to support the real economy and the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of timing and intensity in policy implementation [4][59] - The industrial departments are collaborating to cultivate new productive forces, particularly in digital transformation and key technology breakthroughs [4][65] Group 4 - Local governments are adapting the central economic work conference's spirit to their specific circumstances, focusing on breaking "involution," promoting "investment in people," and establishing a correct view of performance [5][66] - Different regions are pursuing development strategies based on their unique endowments, with eastern regions emphasizing outward competition and future technology, while central and western regions focus on green, transitional, and security aspects [5][34][66] - The emphasis on "investment in people" indicates a shift towards enhancing human capital alongside physical investments, with local governments recognizing the importance of this balance [5][66]

宏 观 研 究 国内政策 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释 放的增量信息与政策信号有何深意？本文分析，可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体，突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方 向，密集开展会议精神的学习、解读与部署工作。各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消 费结构演变等，财税部门聚焦财力保障，经济大省侧重开放布局，边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻 性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。融资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"， 与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变化。 内需方面，中财办提出把握消费结构性变化，坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。其指出"我国 正在从以商品消费为主转向商品消费和服务消费并重"，契合今年消费现状；投资方面则聚焦 消费类基建，并提出"靠前实施具备条件的'十五五'重大项目"。 改革方面，中财办注重统一大市场与"双碳"建设。"反内卷"层 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that the demand for electric power equipment and technological iterations are gaining attention, with the carbon-neutral 50 ETF (159861) rising over 1.3% on December 26 [1] - Domestic wind power installations are expected to remain high by 2026, with the industry chain profits set to recover as "anti-involution" orders are delivered and bidding prices stabilize [1] - Global offshore wind power is expanding rapidly due to technological advancements and policy support, benefiting core segments such as foundational engineering and submarine cables [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a positive impact from policy and market mechanisms, with "anti-involution" effects becoming evident, leading to deeper integration in silicon material and accelerated exit of outdated capacities [1] - The battery segment is expected to see a price increase cycle in 2026, with revenue and profits rising, driven by unexpected demand for energy storage and new technological catalysts [1] - The lithium battery industry chain has emerged from the cyclical bottom, with demand maintaining unexpectedly high growth and prices stabilizing, while supply tightness is observed in segments like 6F and electrolytes [1]

（二）《求是》发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》 12月15日，《求是》发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，整理了2015年10月至2025年10月期间有关 扩大内需的重要论述。如2024年中央经济工作会议提到，要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动 经济增长的主动力和稳定锚；《关于〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉的 说明》则强调坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，大力提振 消费。 | 图表 19:《求是》发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》 | | --- | | 事件 | 会议 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 过去，我国生产能力滞后，因而把工作直点放在扩大投资、提高生产能力上。现在，产能总体过剩，仍一味靠扩大规模投资 | | 2015/10/29 党的十八届五中全会第二次全体会议 | | 抬高速度,作用有限目边际效用递减。虽然短期内投资可以成为拉动经济增长的重要动力,但最终消费才是经济增长的持久 | | | | 动力 ... | | 2016/1/18 | 省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的十 | 供给 ...

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释放的增量信息与政策信号有何深 意？本文分析，可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体，突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方向，密集开展会议精神的学习、 解读与部署工作。 各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消费结构演变等，财税部门聚焦财力保障，经济大省侧重开放布 局，边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。 融 资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"，与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变 化。 内需方面，中财办提出把握消费结构性变化，坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。 其指出"我国正在从以商品消费为主转向商品 消费和服务消费并重"，契合今年消费现状；投资方面则聚焦消费类基建，并提出"靠前实施具备条件的'十五五'重大项目"。 改革方面，中财办注重统一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - **Gold & Silver**: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - **Copper**: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - **Tin**: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - **Cotton**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].