Intel 国投期货 原油: 供需宽松主导全年，价格中枢下移 国投期货研究院 根据IEA评估，2025年全球汽油需求预计达到2740万桶/目的峰值并在随后年份步入下滑通道： 郑若金 Z0011388 2026年1月 11/11/1 国投期货 需求展望 The Station the was and the 川川 历年布伦特原油价格走势 美元/桶 布伦特均价 ——近十年累计平均值 —— 近二十年累计平均值 ----自1976年以来累计平均值 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 数据来源：BP，路透，国投期货 % 汽油需求：全球需求达峰，区域分化明显 图:全球汽油需求 国新能源汽车销量及渗透率 图：美国汽油表观消费量 汽油消费增速 = 用消费 28 10% 5% 26 24 202 ZOZ coz ZOZ coz ZOZ ZOZ ZOZ ZOZ 202 ＞ 从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a dramatic sentiment reversal due to supply disruption concerns stemming from protests in Iran, leading traders to buy call options at unprecedented levels to hedge against price surges, shifting the earlier pessimistic outlook on supply surplus [1]. Group 1: Market Activity - On Monday, the trading volume of Brent crude oil call options reached a historic high, exceeding 556,000 contracts, reflecting heightened market vigilance regarding supply risks from Iran, the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC [1]. - The implied volatility and call option premiums have continued to rise, reaching their highest levels since June of the previous year, following military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran [1]. - Brent crude futures have increased by over 6% since last Wednesday, as short positions betting on supply surplus were forced to cover [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - The options trading on Monday was dominated by large-scale spread trades, which provided relatively inexpensive tools for betting on sudden price spikes. Notably, significant trades included spread contracts equivalent to 40 million barrels [5]. - Early signals of large call spread trades were observed before Friday's close, including a spread contract equivalent to 50 million barrels, setting the stage for Monday's explosive trading volume [5]. - These spread strategies allow traders to hedge against a range of potential outcomes, from military escalation to supply disruptions due to protests by Iranian oil workers [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The shift in market sentiment has been abrupt; earlier this month, the outlook was pessimistic due to the recovery prospects of Venezuelan production, which was exacerbating global supply surplus concerns [4]. - The "skew" indicator for Brent crude oil options has shifted in favor of call options since mid-last week, indicating a rare market condition typically seen during geopolitical pressures [6]. - Despite claims from Tehran that protests have been quelled, unrest appears to persist, with reports indicating that U.S. President Trump is considering military action against Iran, adding to the uncertainty in the market [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share trading volume reached a record high of 3.64 trillion yuan, but there are potential regulatory risks and market self - adjustment risks [2][22]. - The investigation of the Fed Chairman by the US Department of Justice has increased market concerns about the Fed's independence, affecting the prices of precious metals, the US dollar index, US stock index futures, and US Treasury bond futures [3][11][16]. - The supply and demand situation of various commodities is different. For example, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, and the price trends of different metals and energy chemicals are affected by factors such as policies, production, and geopolitical situations [4][37][69]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell by the US Department of Justice is considered an excuse by Trump to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, which has increased market concerns about the Fed's independence [10]. - CME will change the margin setting method for precious metals, which may increase market volatility. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back before making long - term allocations [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The investigation of Powell has led to criticism from key Republican members, and the market's concern about the Fed's independence has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken. It is expected that the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Trump's tariff policy on Iran has affected the market. Although the market is worried about the Fed's independence, the risk appetite of the US stock market has moderately recovered. It is expected that the US stock market will continue to fluctuate strongly [18][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share trading volume reached a record high, but some listed companies' statements cooled the market. It is believed that the probability of regulatory intervention is high, and the market self - adjustment is a risk point. It is recommended to continue holding long - term strategies for stock index futures [22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan. Although the bond market has signs of a rebound, the long - term suppression factors still exist. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up and betting on rebounds and pay attention to short - selling opportunities [24][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal remained stable, and the coal price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in January, with limited room for continuous rebound [26][27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Tata Steel plans to acquire 50.01% of the equity of Thriveni Pellets. The iron ore market is in an oscillation, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate without a clear trend [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/HRC) - The steel price is oscillating strongly, but the contradiction in the steel market is gradually accumulating. It is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillating mindset in the short term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market remained stable. There is a certain demand for replenishment before the Spring Festival, but the increase in iron water production needs to be monitored [35][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, and the USDA reports were bearish. It is expected that the price of soybean meal futures will continue to be weak [37][39][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased in early January, and the production decreased. The inventory in December exceeded expectations, but the market has already priced it in. It is expected that the palm oil price will start a rebound [41][44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The cooperation between Codelco and SQM is expected to achieve a production of 250,000 tons in 2026. The adjustment of the battery export tax - rebate policy is beneficial to the demand for lithium carbonate. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and be cautious for new long positions [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - The copper premium in Japan reached a record high, and some companies have investment and cooperation plans. The short - term copper price fluctuation is expected to intensify. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [50][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - The domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia increased slightly. The market is expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The LME lead price was in a narrow - range oscillation, and the domestic social inventory increased. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [59][60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - Heavy pollution emergency responses were launched in some northern regions. The zinc price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [61][63][64]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metal (Tin) - The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the tin price will continue to oscillate strongly [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Trump's tariff policy on Iran has increased the risk premium of oil prices. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may support oil prices [68][69][70]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [70][71]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemical (Urea) - The price of urea is oscillating strongly. The supply is recovering, and the demand is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to wait for a reasonable valuation before going long on the 05 contract [73][74]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemical (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. The price of styrene is strong, but the profit margin is high. Attention should be paid to factors such as tax policies and oil price fluctuations [75][76][77].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high of nearly $4600 per ounce, with a significant annual increase of approximately 70% in 2025, marking the largest annual rise since the 1979 oil crisis [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current surge in international gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year. From 2020 to 2023, gold prices frequently surpassed $2000 per ounce, and in 2024, they exceeded $2800 per ounce with a 27% annual increase. By March 2025, prices crossed $3000 per ounce, and by October, they surpassed $4000 per ounce, culminating in a record high near $4600 per ounce by year-end [1] - Domestic gold prices in China have also risen significantly, with gold jewelry prices increasing from around 800 yuan per gram to approximately 1360 yuan per gram within the year [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle and the weakening dollar have reduced the holding costs of gold [1] - Geopolitical risks and rising global economic uncertainties have intensified market demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, leading to a surge in prices [2] - Central banks worldwide are diversifying their reserves and significantly increasing gold holdings, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3: Related Precious Metals - The increase in international gold prices has also led to substantial rises in other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% and palladium over 100% last year. The strong performance of gold has activated sector rotation, boosting the overall valuation of precious metals [2] - Industrial demand for certain precious metals, such as silver, has also supported price increases, driven by rapid developments in industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to enter a new phase of dynamic balance and multiple forces at play by 2026, according to industry experts [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach, recognize market risks, and follow diversification principles in their gold investments, employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging to smooth returns [3]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the actions of the Trump administration regarding Venezuela and Iran, which have injected political risks into the global oil market [5][6][22]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices fluctuated significantly, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $59.50 per barrel, up 0.64%, and Brent crude oil futures at $63.87 per barrel, up 0.84% [7][23]. - The market's focus has shifted from Venezuela to the unrest in Iran, with concerns about potential U.S. military intervention causing oil prices to rise again after an initial drop [5][21]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The Trump administration's interventions in Venezuela have increased U.S. control over key oil resources, creating political uncertainty that affects global oil markets [6][22]. - The situation in Iran remains a significant risk, with the potential for military action by the U.S. contributing to market volatility [5][6][22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite geopolitical tensions, the actual supply of oil remains adequate, with the physical market in the Middle East showing weakness [6][22]. - The Brent crude oil month spread has recently rebounded, indicating that geopolitical factors are adding a risk premium to oil prices [6][22]. Group 4: Developments in Venezuela - Global commodity traders Vitol and Trafigura have gained an early advantage in controlling Venezuelan oil, surpassing U.S. oil giants who are hesitant due to legal risks [24][25]. - The U.S. government is collaborating with these traders to expedite the flow of Venezuelan oil exports, which is crucial for funding the interim government [24][25]. Group 5: Iranian Situation - Iran claims to have regained control over domestic unrest, which has eased short-term supply concerns, but the geopolitical situation remains fluid [27][28]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on any country engaging in business with Iran, further complicating the geopolitical landscape [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected fluctuations in gold prices, driven by central bank demand, investment interest, and geopolitical risks, with projections indicating potential price movements between $4,500 and $5,100 per ounce in the coming months [1][2]. Group 1: Price Projections - The next key psychological and technical resistance level for gold is anticipated to be around $4,800 per ounce [1] - DBS Bank forecasts that gold prices may fluctuate around $4,500 per ounce in the first half of the year, with a potential rise to $5,100 per ounce in the second half [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Central bank allocation and investment demand are identified as key drivers for the increase in gold prices [1] - There is a strong willingness among central banks to increase gold holdings amid global trends of "de-dollarization" and "debt reduction" [1] - Concerns over the expanding scale of U.S. Treasury bonds have led investors to view gold as an alternative asset, further boosting investment demand [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Current high levels of global geopolitical risks are enhancing market risk aversion, providing strong support for rising gold prices [2] - Financial institutions, including Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued warnings regarding gold trading risks and adjusted rules to help investors manage market volatility [2]

Group 1 - Oil prices rose on Monday due to market concerns that Iran may reduce exports amid the largest anti-government protests in years, offsetting expectations of increased supply from Venezuela, another sanctioned OPEC member [1][5] - Brent crude futures increased by $0.67, or 1.1%, closing at $64.01 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose by $0.38, or 0.6%, to $59.50 per barrel [2][6] - The U.S. is monitoring the situation in Iran, with President Trump expected to meet with senior advisors to discuss options in response to the protests, which represent one of the most significant challenges to the theocratic regime since the 1979 Islamic Revolution [2][7] Group 2 - Venezuela is expected to soon resume oil exports following the forced removal of President Nicolás Maduro, with reports indicating that the government may transfer up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. [3][8][9] - Companies are reportedly scrambling to secure tankers and prepare for the safe transport of crude oil, with Trafigura indicating that its first tanker will load next week [9] - Investors are also concerned about supply disruption risks from Russia due to attacks on its energy facilities in Ukraine, and the potential for stricter U.S. sanctions on Moscow's energy sector [4][9] Group 3 - Azerbaijan's energy ministry announced a reduction in oil exports to 23.1 million tons in 2025, down from 24.4 million tons in 2024 [4][9] - Norway's government plans to submit a policy document regarding the future of the oil and gas industry, emphasizing the importance of developing the sector rather than phasing it out [4][9] - Goldman Sachs reported that geopolitical risks related to Russia, Venezuela, and Iran will continue to increase market volatility, but new supply coming online may lead to an oversupply and gradual decline in oil prices this year [4][9]

格隆汇1月13日｜由于对美联储独立性及地缘政治风险的担忧，现货黄金站上4630美元/盎司，日内涨幅达2.46%；现货白银突破86美元/盎司，日内涨 7.62%。 ...

在美国检察官对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查后，引发了市场对美联储独立性的担忧，黄金持续刷新历史新高 周一美盘，黄金一度涨超2%，并将历史记录刷新至4620美元上方，白银一度暴涨超7%。截止发稿前，二者均有所回落。 资产管理公司Carmignac的投资委员会成员Kevin Thozet表示，风险在于白宫与美联储之间在未来几个季度可能会"不再手下留情"。鲍威尔上周日表示，美联 储收到了大陪审团的传票以及司法部关于刑事起诉的威胁，这与他在国会就央行总部25亿美元翻新工程的证词有关。 投资者表示，美元和黄金的走势反映出一种风险，即由于政治压力，美国政策利率可能会被压低至低于本应有的水平，从而可能导致长期通胀上升和货币政 策的不确定性。 Fidelity International的基金经理Mike Riddell说："我们以前经历过这种情况——对美联储的政治压力意味着美元走弱、美国长期国债收益率走高以及通胀预 期上升。" 但市场波动的规模相对较小，许多投资者仍押注利率制定者将保持独立。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在伦敦的一次会议上表示："我的预期依然是，委员 会将继续根据其授权和经济数据做出决定。" 黄金和 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 因担忧美国总统特朗普试图掌控格陵兰岛的举动或将引发地缘政治裂痕、瓦解北约、冲击全球秩序并损 害美元信誉，投资者纷纷大举加仓黄金与欧洲防务类股。 尽管无论格陵兰岛局势如何演变，市场均预计这两类资产的涨势将延续，但投资者仍面临两难困境，即 如何布局才能应对潜在的长期负面影响。 特朗普意图通过收购甚至军事手段掌控这块丹麦领土，然而格陵兰岛方面明确拒绝成为美国的一部分， 这一立场也得到了欧洲与加拿大的支持。 此前，投资者大多对特朗普的这一企图不以为意，但美国通过突然军事突袭强行控制委内瑞拉强人马杜 罗的举动，令其野心的落地可能性陡然上升。 对于在去年关税风波后期待市场风险有所缓和的投资者而言，这一消息使得2026年的开局显得颇为棘 手。 与此同时，特朗普还在考虑介入伊朗国内动荡，而美国政府威胁起诉美联储主席鲍威尔的行为，也再度 引发了市场对于美联储独立性的担忧。 继马杜罗被扣押后，国际金价上周大涨逾4%，并在周一刷新历史新高；欧洲国防股指数（SXPARO） 同样在周一创下历史峰值，且上周录得超五年以来的最大单周涨幅，涨幅高达10%。 "从当前的金价走势就能明显 ...