摘要北京时间周三（1月21日）欧洲时段，美元指数震荡上行，交投于98.628附近，金价目前交投于 4725.49美元/盎司，涨幅2.06%，最高触及4887.82美元/盎司，最低触及4756.81美元/盎司。美国对格陵 兰岛的主权要求，使本已动荡不安的世界格局面临的风险更加巨大，加拿大武装部队已经模拟了美国对 加拿大的军事入侵、以及加拿大可能做出的回应。在此动荡的局势下，市场资金继续追捧黄金等避险资 产。 北京时间周三（1月21日）欧洲时段，美元指数震荡上行，交投于98.628附近，金价目前交投于4725.49 美元/盎司，涨幅2.06%，最高触及4887.82美元/盎司，最低触及4756.81美元/盎司。美国对格陵兰岛的主 权要求，使本已动荡不安的世界格局面临的风险更加巨大，加拿大武装部队已经模拟了美国对加拿大的 军事入侵、以及加拿大可能做出的回应。在此动荡的局势下，市场资金继续追捧黄金等避险资产。 今日黄金价格最新查询（2026年1月21日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 4860.56 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 1086.10 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative driving the surge in gold prices is the combination of geopolitical tensions, financial instability, and political uncertainty, leading to a significant increase in safe-haven demand for gold, which rose over 2.5% to nearly $4885 per ounce, reaching a historical peak of $4861.28 [1][2] - The aggressive statements by Trump regarding Greenland have eroded trust between the US and Europe, prompting a shift in investment strategies towards gold as a safe haven, alongside a backdrop of a weak dollar and high global debt levels [2][3] - The current market dynamics are not solely driven by risk aversion but also by differentiated assessments of the fundamentals of various precious metals, with gold standing out as investors show less interest in silver and platinum [2][3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a strong bullish trend for gold, with key support levels identified at $4690 and $4620, while a deeper correction could test $4550 and the psychological level of $4500, which is crucial for maintaining bullish control [4] - As long as the $4500 level holds, the bullish sentiment is unlikely to be shaken, with the $5000 mark seen as a reachable target due to strong safe-haven demand [4]

新华财经上海1月21日电（葛佳明）受格陵兰岛争端持续发酵等因素影响，美国市场日前再现股债汇"三 杀"，避险情绪升温，黄金持续走强，COMEX黄金、现货黄金相继升破每盎司4800美元关口。截至发 稿，现货黄金价格21日最高触及每盎司4888美元的高位。 美国桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）警告称，在地缘紧张局势加剧和市场不安情绪的笼罩下， 各国政府和投资者正在重新评估对美国资产的配置意愿。多位接受新华财经采访的分析师表示，地缘政 治与经济不确定性持续推升全球避险需求，当前全球资本市场对黄金的态度或正逐步从传统的"避险保 值工具"转变为"货币属性替代品"。 "去美元化交易"卷土重来 衡量投资者恐慌情绪和市场风险的芝加哥期权交易所波动指数（又称"恐慌指数"）20日大幅上涨 26.67%，收于20.09，为2025年11月25日以来的最高水平。 投资者对日本债券的恐慌抛售以及丹麦养老基金计划抛售美债的消息大幅影响美债走势，长期美债收益 率大幅冲高，触及四个月高点。此外，美元对大多数主要货币走低，美元指数一度下跌0.7%至98.23。 当地时间1月20日，纽约股市标普500指数大跌2.1%，抹去了2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the US stock, bond, and currency markets, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and fiscal policies on financial conditions, particularly the concerns surrounding the de-dollarization trend and its potential effects on global markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On January 20, the US markets experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping over 2%, the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 6 basis points to 4.3%, and the dollar depreciating while gold prices surged past $4,800, reaching a historical high [1]. - The overseas long-term bond market also faced pressure, with the 30-year US Treasury yield increasing by 8 basis points to over 4.9%, and the 30-year Japanese bond yield rising by 10 basis points above 3.5% [1]. Group 2: Causes of Market Turmoil - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland, have reignited fears of de-dollarization, leading to concerns about potential asset sell-offs by European investors, who currently hold approximately $17 trillion in assets, including $3.6 trillion in US Treasuries [3][4]. - Historical precedents indicate that similar market fears have previously led to significant sell-offs of US debt, particularly during the "reciprocal tariffs" period in April 2025, where both official and private sectors reduced their holdings of US Treasuries [4]. Group 3: Fiscal Policies and Their Implications - Japan's fiscal policy is shifting towards "undisciplined expansion," raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as the government plans to dissolve the House of Representatives and suspend food consumption taxes for two years [7]. - The Bank of Japan's tightening measures, in response to internal and external pressures, are expected to exacerbate risks in Japanese bonds and have spillover effects on overseas long-term bond markets [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The de-dollarization trend is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend, with the potential for market conditions to stabilize if geopolitical tensions ease [8][9]. - In the stock market, while rising long-term bond yields and increased risk aversion may pressure US equities in the short term, the core support for US stock growth remains strong, driven by earnings growth and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [10]. - For the bond market, US Treasury yields are expected to revert to a downward trend following short-term fluctuations, with a recommendation to focus on 2-5 year maturities due to their relative certainty compared to long-term bonds [10]. - The dollar is anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 96-101, influenced by mixed economic signals, while gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over dollar credibility [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.54%, while the STAR Market Composite Index rose by 2.32% [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.62 trillion yuan [1] - The Hong Kong market also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.37% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 1.11% [1] Sector Highlights - Key sectors that performed well included gold, non-ferrous metals, natural gas, semiconductors, and CPO [1] Investment Strategy - According to Ping An Asset Management, focusing on long-term investment and asset allocation can help investors capture main trends and core assets in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - The emphasis is on structural opportunities in technology growth, the transition between old and new economic drivers, and moderate inflation recovery [1] Manager Insights - Zhang Chuan, head of the FOF business at Ping An Asset Management, noted that the A-share market has shifted from liquidity-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on technology growth, particularly in the AI industry chain, and benefiting from cyclical and consumer sectors [1] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is expected to recover due to the influx of southbound funds and foreign capital, with a focus on technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and resource products [1] Strategic Asset Allocation - Gold is supported by "de-dollarization" and geopolitical dynamics, maintaining its strategic allocation value [1] - Utilizing diversified asset allocation through FOF and other flexible tools can help balance returns and risks, capturing structural opportunities in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]

技术面上，现货黄金单日涨超2%，强势突破4880美元历史新高，触发量化资金跟风涌入。市场分化明 显：白银承压调整，铂钯震荡，凸显资金对黄金的独钟。 机构指出，突破关键阻力位后，"5000美元前惜售"心态蔓延，看涨共识正转化为强劲的自我实现动力。 截至北京时间周三(1月21日)16:41，现货黄金报4862.32美元/盎司，涨幅2.09%。 摘要特朗普关于格陵兰岛的激进言论加剧美欧裂痕，引发美国资产信任危机，"抛售美元、抢购黄金"成 市场主线。叠加美元疲软、全球债务高企及去美元化趋势，金价获强劲基本面支撑。 特朗普关于格陵兰岛的激进言论加剧美欧裂痕，引发美国资产信任危机，"抛售美元、抢购黄金"成市场 主线。叠加美元疲软、全球债务高企及去美元化趋势，金价获强劲基本面支撑。 ...

Group 1: Gold - Financial Attributes and Support from Rate Cuts - Since 2025, international gold prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, driven by weakened dollar credit, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, continued net purchases of gold by global central banks, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [14][33] - As of January 20, 2026, COMEX gold futures reached $4,764 per ounce, while London spot gold closed at $4,747.80 per ounce, and Shanghai gold prices hit 1,055.99 yuan per gram [15][75] - The financial attributes of gold are regaining strength, with its monetary, investment, and safe-haven properties being influenced by real interest rates, the dollar index, and geopolitical situations [17][75] Group 2: Silver - Industrial Demand and Financial Attributes - Silver's industrial demand is being driven by its unique physical properties, making it essential in solar photovoltaic, automotive, and data center sectors [65][76] - The global silver supply is expected to remain tight due to declining ore grades and increasing production costs, with a projected supply of approximately 32,100 tons and demand of about 35,700 tons in 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [51][52] - As of January 20, 2026, COMEX silver prices reached $94.06 per ounce, reflecting a 216.5% increase since the beginning of 2025, while the gold-silver ratio stood at 50.49 [66][77] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988), Xinyi Silver (000426), Jiangxi Copper (600362), and Shengda Resources (000603) for potential investment opportunities [75][77]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周三金银走势出现分化，沪金主力合约日内最高触及1100元以上，收报1092.30元/克；白银高位震荡， 沪银主力合约微跌，收报23131元/千克。金银目前需要关注哪些驱动？后市要注意哪些风险？ 基本面分析： 国泰君安期货市场分析师 陈骏昊 投资咨询证号：Z0021546 1．地缘上，格陵兰岛局势日趋紧张，美欧关税威胁不断。美方声称不排除"武力夺岛"，并威胁对欧洲 多国加征关税。欧洲方面迅速反制，丹麦养老基金计划轻仓美国国债，隔夜美国金融市场遭遇"股债汇 三杀"，市场对美元资产信心被削弱。此外日方宣布推出一系列放松财政政策的举措，导致日本国债遭 到抛售并拖累日元贬值，市场避险情绪继续推升金价。 2．宏观上，不确定因素较多。美联储新任主席人选未公布，但市场预期有所转向，偏鹰派的前美联储 理事凯文沃什成为当前热门人选，对后市的降息预期产生一定影响；此外，美高院目前仍未就美国全球 关税合法性争议作出决定，如关税工具受限，可关注其他如"232条款"等替代手段。 3．白银由于其工业属性及交易风控措施，近期高位震荡为主，涨势暂止，且金银比快速回落至50以下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland and the threats posed by the Trump administration, are significantly driving the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which has seen a remarkable price surge, with spot gold prices exceeding $4,880 per ounce and continuing to rise in 2026 [1][7][10]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have experienced a dramatic increase, with a 70% rise in 2025 and a continuation of this bullish trend into 2026, reaching a peak of $4,890 per ounce [1][5]. - Central banks, particularly the National Bank of Poland, are increasing their gold purchases, with plans to buy an additional 150 tons, which is expected to support the long-term bullish trajectory of gold prices [2][10]. - The geopolitical climate, including threats of tariffs against European nations and military tensions, is contributing to a significant shift in investor sentiment towards gold and other precious metals [7][12]. Group 2: Broader Economic Implications - The current market environment reflects a broader distrust in fiat currencies, with major central banks diversifying their reserves into gold due to rising sovereign debt levels and geopolitical uncertainties [6][13]. - Analysts predict that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in the near term, driven by increasing demand from both central banks and private investors seeking hard assets as a hedge against economic instability [11][14]. - The potential for a destructive trade war and the implications of the U.S. government's fiscal policies are causing investors to flee from dollar-denominated assets, further boosting the appeal of gold [7][12].

在地缘政治摩擦加剧与贸易保护主义阴云的笼罩下，黄金价格正以惊人的势头突破历史高位，5000美元关口已触手可及。 周三，现货黄金价格强势站上4880美元/盎司，日内涨幅达2.46%，续创历史新高。这一最新涨势的直接导火索来自白宫针对格陵兰岛的关税威 胁，此举重燃了市场对全球贸易战的担忧，迫使投资者在日益不确定的国际局势中寻求安全港湾。截至发稿，现货黄金回落至4860美元/盎司。 继2025年创下超60%的历史性涨幅后，黄金在2026年开局动能不减。分析人士指出，地缘政治紧张局势、实际利率下行、以及央行与私人投资者 持续的"去美元化"多元配置策略，正共同构成支撑金价上行的核心逻辑。市场普遍认为，在当前宏观背景下，黄金作为"终极避险资产"的角色依 然稳固。 面对这一轮凌厉的攻势，全球金融机构与市场观察人士正在重新校准预期，讨论的焦点已大幅上移，关于金价迈向6000美元、7000美元乃至10000 美元的呼声日益高涨，凸显了在动荡宏观环境下，黄金作为战略性避险资产的地位正被前所未有地强化。 市场预期重估：从7000美元到"咆哮的"10000美元 面对金价的强劲表现，分析师和机构的预测变得愈发激进。LBMA的一项调查显 ...