稀土，这东西听起来似乎离我们的日常生活很遥远，但实际上它就在我们身边无处不在——从手机、电脑、电动车，到导弹和雷达，几乎没有高科技产品能 离开它的支持。 到了2025年，中国对稀土出口采取了重大措施，直接限制了几种关键元素的出口，结果让美国陷入了混乱，给特朗普带来了巨大压力。 先来了解一下稀土到底是什么。稀土并不是单一的元素，而是包括17种化学元素的集合，像钪、钇，还有一整串镧系元素。 虽然这些名字听上去很陌生，但它们在现代工业中却扮演着不可或缺的角色。稀土元素具备独特的物理和化学特性，使得高科技产品更强大、更轻巧、更耐 用。 举个例子，智能手机的显示屏和电池，电动车里的电机，甚至军工领域中的激光器和永磁体，都离不开稀土的支持。 中国在全球稀土产业中占据绝对领先地位，全球90%以上的稀土产量都来自中国。这背后的原因很简单：中国不仅拥有丰富的稀土矿藏，还建立了完整的产 业链，从矿石开采到深加工一应俱全。 相比之下，美国虽然也有稀土资源，但缺乏强大的加工能力和提炼技术，基本依赖中国的供应和加工。一旦中国收紧出口，美国便陷入被动局面。 2025年初，特朗普政府对中国商品加征了34%的关税，试图通过贸易战施压中国。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The latest gold price reached a high of $3398.55 per ounce, marking a new weekly peak, before experiencing a drop to $3338 due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] - Market sentiment indicates a decrease in risk aversion, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year following lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the gold price is in a strong upward trend, with key support at $3370 and resistance at $3405, indicating a strategy of buying on dips [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices fell by $0.47 to $69.40 per barrel, while WTI dropped by $0.33 to $67.84, following a previous day of over 4% gains [5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected declines in U.S. inventories are driving market dynamics, with ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions [5] - Technical indicators show a bullish trend for oil prices, with expectations of further increases if resistance levels are broken, particularly targeting the $70 mark [6]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。周一铝锭社库较上周四去库2.7万吨，铝棒持平。铝市维持低库存现实，需求面 临李节性转淡和出口前置后的考验，关注现货反馈边际变化。沪铝暂时震荡在前期缺口20300元存 在阻力,逢高偏空参与。 【氧化铝】 综合晨报 2025年06月11日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价冲高回落，布伦特08合约跌0.79%。在持续对中美谈判乐观预期进行定价后，最新迹 象显示暂无超出日内瓦共识之外的增量进展，油价上行动力不足。上周美国API原油库存下降37万 桶不及此前预期，关注今晚EIA库存结果。在OPEC+7月增产短期利空出尽后，宏观面中美贸易战相 关的风险情绪修复、旺季需求改善、地缘犹动下制裁风险仍存一度对原油构成支撑，但能源转型超 势下的中期石油需求降速叠加OPEC+产量策略改变后供应的快速回归仍将限制短期利好的强度，原 油暂以反弹空间有限定调,继续关注中美经贸磋商能否带动宏观预期的实质性扣转。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力,但白银受益于商品的反弹向上突破 刷新2012年以来新高。随着关税暂缓三个月截止期的临近，特朗普关 ...

股票市场对贸易战预期反应趋于理性，而债券市场主要定价流动性而非 贸易战影响，央行政策是关键驱动因素。 未来需密切关注 6 月份出口数据，特别是抢出口效应减弱的迹象，这将 是判断债券市场机会的重要信号。 债券市场的大机会主要来自经济数据催化，尤其是地产数据，地产下行 会放大出口和生产的负面影响。 贸易战对中国债市的影响已部分定价，未来需关注实际影响；美债表现 疲软，反映了增长和流动性预期以及金融秩序重塑。 美元信用资产表现偏弱，与传统避险逻辑不符，反映了金融秩序重塑的 不确定性和对美国财政扩张的担忧。 全球市场中，股票定价贸易规则影响，避险资产如黄金、比特币因对金 融秩序重塑敏感而走强，大宗商品震荡。 预计 2025 年将是 10 年期国债牛市的尾部阶段，下半年基本面定价逻 辑将主导，出口带动地产走低，利率仍有下行空间。 Q&A 当前市场对中美贸易战的预期定价趋势如何？ 当前市场对中美贸易战的预期定价呈现出疲软趋势。最初在四五月份，市场风 险偏好极度收缩，但随着时间推移，市场选择不提前判断贸易规则的不确定性。 因此，从四月下旬到整个五月，相关板块并未获得非常乐观的定价，更加侧重 现实端。尽管上周中美两国首脑会谈 ...

消息面： 周五公布的美国5月失业率录得4.2%，符合市场预期，前值为4.2%；美国5月季调后非农就业人口录得13.9万 人，高于市场预期13万人，前值为14.7万人。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发文称，美联储官员表示，在评估劳动力需求是否放缓上，他们可能更关注失业 率而非就业增长。原因在于，他们预计，随着边境管控收紧导致可供工作的人数减少，就业增长自然将放缓。 当就业增长放缓而失业率保持稳定时，可能表明劳动力供给下降的速度快于需求下降的速度。美联储的底线 是：只要失业率保持在当前水平，美联储不会必然对就业增长放缓感到担忧。 行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（6月6日）大幅收跌，开盘价3344.40美元/盎司，最高价3375.56美元/盎司，最低价3316.43美元/ 盎司，收盘价3332.18美元/盎司。 技术面： 国际黄金周五大幅收跌，周五早间金价维持短线震荡上行，最低下探3356一线后震荡走高，进入下午盘金价最 高是跟你谈3375一线后震荡回落，欧盘时段金价最低下探3352一线后逐步企稳于3352上方区间震荡。美盘时段 伴随着高于市场预期的非农就业数据公布金价加剧短线震荡下行，周六凌晨金价最低下探 ...

Group 1 - Trump initiated a phone call with China, indicating urgency regarding the manufacturing sector and potential reverse flow of manufacturing back to China [1][2] - The call lasted 1.5 hours, focusing on the urgent need to resolve rare earth export restrictions, which are critical for U.S. manufacturing [2][4] - China dominates the global rare earth market, supplying 90% of high-performance rare earth magnets, while U.S. rare earth stock is dwindling to 1-2 months [4][6] Group 2 - The surge in rare earth prices has significantly impacted U.S. companies, with Grumman reporting a loss of $477 million due to rising costs [4][6] - Some U.S. automotive companies are considering relocating production lines to China if rare earth supplies are not secured [6] - The U.S. economy is facing challenges, including disappointing job growth and rising unemployment claims, which could further pressure the manufacturing sector [7] Group 3 - The recent phone call suggests that the trade war dynamics may not change significantly in the short term, potentially easing export pressures for China [8] - However, a stabilization in exports could reduce the urgency for domestic stimulus policies in China, which may lead to economic pressures if consumer demand does not improve [8][9] - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut exceeding 90% could provide new opportunities for China, potentially leading to market improvements in the second half of the year [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of the U.S.-China trade war and tariff policies on the global economy, particularly focusing on the U.S. and Chinese economies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact on Inflation**: The U.S. tariffs could increase inflation by 0.6% to 1.3%, with extreme scenarios potentially raising it by 1.4% to 2.9% [4][5]. - **Economic Growth Projections**: - For China, the economic growth rate is projected at 4.5% for 2025, with potential adjustments based on tariff developments [1][9][20][30]. - The U.S. economy is expected to grow at 1.3% in 2025, with core PCE inflation rising to 3% [5][11][14]. - **Labor Market Concerns**: The U.S. labor market may deteriorate, which could trigger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12][15]. - **Trade War Dynamics**: The current trade war is characterized by a more prepared China and a struggling U.S. economy, leading to increased market uncertainty [6][7][8][20]. - **Consumer Behavior**: The trade war has led to preemptive production and export strategies in China, affecting GDP contributions [20][30]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Financial Market Reactions**: The U.S. stock market has shown volatility, with significant drops following tariff announcements, indicating investor uncertainty [18][19][34]. - **Future Policy Directions**: The U.S. government is unlikely to implement significant stimulus measures in the short term, maintaining a fiscal deficit similar to previous years [16][17]. - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: The semiconductor and software industries may face additional tariffs, which could further complicate trade relations [2][5]. - **Real Estate Market Trends**: The Chinese real estate market has shown signs of improvement due to previous policy stimuli, but recent data suggests a potential slowdown [21][29]. - **Investment Trends**: There is a growing interest in AI technology and its applications, with expectations of continued investment in this sector despite trade tensions [38][55]. Conclusion The records provide a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape influenced by U.S.-China trade relations, highlighting the potential impacts on inflation, economic growth, labor markets, and specific industries. The ongoing uncertainty necessitates careful monitoring of policy developments and market reactions.

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalation of tariffs on Chinese goods to 245%, portraying it as a desperate move by the U.S. that backfired, leading to a strong response from China [1][12][21] - China's leadership emphasizes that they will not back down in the face of aggression, asserting that respect and peace cannot be achieved through appeasement [3][6][19] - The U.S. underestimates China's strategic resolve and overestimates its own international influence, leading to miscalculations in the trade war [19][21] Group 2 - The article highlights the negative impact of the trade war on U.S. businesses, with companies like Boeing and Ford facing significant challenges due to reliance on Chinese markets [14][17] - It points out that American companies are beginning to realize the importance of the Chinese market, as they struggle with the consequences of the tariffs [14][19] - The narrative suggests that the trade war has become a self-inflicted wound for the U.S., with the potential for long-term economic damage [14][21] Group 3 - The article notes that the current trade conflict is not just a negotiation but a broader geopolitical struggle, with implications for global alliances and economic strategies [12][19] - It mentions that other countries are beginning to pivot away from U.S. influence, as seen in their economic decisions regarding China [19][21] - The piece concludes that the trade war will not end until significant economic consequences are felt in the U.S., pushing them to the negotiation table [21]

Group 1: U.S. Measures Against China - The U.S. has intensified its crackdown on China despite a temporary truce in the trade war, indicating a long-term strategy to view China as a primary strategic competitor [1] - The U.S. has implemented a comprehensive ban on AI chip exports to China, which includes a policy effective from May 15, 2025, prohibiting global companies from using Huawei's Ascend series chips [2] - The U.S. has pressured major EDA companies like Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens to stop providing chip design software to certain Chinese clients, initially targeting military-related enterprises [2] Group 2: Aerospace Technology Restrictions - The U.S. has suspended the sale of critical technologies, including jet engine technology, to China, specifically targeting the COMAC C919 project to hinder China's progress in large aircraft manufacturing [7] - Despite these restrictions, China has made significant advancements in aerospace technology, with the CJ1000A engine, which has been in development since 2011, nearing mass production [7] Group 3: Visa Restrictions for Chinese Students - The U.S. announced an increase in visa revocations for Chinese students, particularly in STEM fields, aiming to prevent the influx of high-end talent into the U.S. [8] - This move may inadvertently encourage more Chinese students to pursue education domestically, fostering innovation and development within China [10] Group 4: Geopolitical Strategy - The U.S. is leveraging its "Indo-Pacific Strategy" to disrupt China's regional influence, attempting to use Southeast Asian nations to contain China and provoke regional conflicts [12] - Despite U.S. military deployments in the Indo-Pacific, China's influence in the region continues to grow, as evidenced by its active participation in ASEAN and other diplomatic engagements [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint In May 2025, the price of soybean meal futures bottomed out and rebounded. The USDA report is bullish for U.S. soybeans, and as the North American production area enters a period sensitive to weather factors, the price of U.S. soybean futures is likely to rise. With a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, the market supply has significantly recovered, and the operating rate of oil mills has rebounded sharply. The inventory of soybean meal has reached an inflection point, and the basis of soybean meal has rapidly declined from a high level and turned negative. The pressure from the weak far - month basis and inventory reconstruction is accumulating. Although the phased strength of U.S. soybean futures will still boost domestic soybeans, the rebound space of domestic soybean meal futures prices will be limited due to the large arrival of domestic soybeans, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal markets will continue [8][34][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review In May 2025, the weighted price of soybean meal futures rose by 1.38% to close at 2946, and the weighted price of rapeseed meal rose by 3.34% to close at 2571. In the international market, the continuous price of U.S. soybeans fell by 0.17% to close at 1042.25, and the price of U.S. soybean meal fell by 0.44% to close at 296.10 [6][9]. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA Report on U.S. Soybeans**: In the 2025/26 season, the U.S. soybean planting area is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the estimated yield per unit is 52.5 bushels per acre, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%; the soybean production is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The estimated soybean crushing volume is 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The ending inventory of soybeans is expected to be 295 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 6.7%, lower than 8.0% in the 2024/25 season, indicating a tightening supply [18]. - **Global Soybean Supply and Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean production is estimated to be 427 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons, mainly contributed by the increase in Brazilian soybean production; the import volume is 186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; the crushing volume is 366 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3 million tons; the export volume is 188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons; the global ending inventory of soybeans is 124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons [7][21]. - **Other Data**: As of May 25, 2025, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 215,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 89,300 tons, and the inventory was at a historically low level. As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 84.37 yuan per head, and the profit was at a historically high level. As of April 2025, the feed production was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the feed production was at a historically high level [25][27][28]. Cross - Variety Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 142.3 yuan per ton, and the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 39.4 yuan per ton, with the latter at an average level. - As of May 30, 2025, the price ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil and soybean meal was 2.57, and the ratio was at a historically high level. - As of May 30, 2025, the price ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal and Dalian soybean meal was 0.89, and the price difference was - 331 yuan per ton [30][32][33]. Outlook The focus is on whether the export demand for U.S. soybeans can recover. The USDA report is bullish for U.S. soybeans, and the price of U.S. soybean futures is likely to rise. With the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans, the supply has recovered, the operating rate of oil mills has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has reached an inflection point. The basis of soybean meal has declined and turned negative. The pressure from the weak far - month basis and inventory reconstruction is increasing. Although the strength of U.S. soybean futures will boost domestic soybeans, the rebound space of domestic soybean meal futures prices will be limited, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal markets will continue [8][34][35].