Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Amid high international market uncertainty, the Fed's inaction, and persistent market pessimism about the economy, the copper market has weak supply and demand. Although downstream demand recovery is slow and its sustainability is doubtful, domestic copper inventories are generally low. Currently, the market mainly trades on macro - information, and domestic stimulus policies are awaited. Copper prices are fluctuating slightly and moving in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: In May, multiple domestic smelters have maintenance plans, with an estimated impact on electrolytic copper output of 21,000 tons, and there are concentrated maintenance plans from July to September. In April, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 438,000 tons, with the monthly data unchanged year - on - year. TC/RC fees are negative and the negative value is expanding, and the high sulfuric acid price compensates for some losses of smelters, but smelter inventories are tight [1]. - Demand side: After the holiday, demand recovery is slow, but the downstream operating rate is rising. In April, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached 86.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%, and orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The spot copper price is strong, and the market has strong demand expectations under the background of significant inventory reduction. However, the April manufacturing PMI and service industry PMI both declined [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The copper futures opened lower, rose during the day, and closed down, with intraday fluctuations under pressure. It closed at 77,450 per ton. The number of long orders of the top 20 was 119,830 lots, an increase of 1,607 lots; the number of short orders was 108,701 lots, a decrease of 1,677 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 65 yuan/ton, and in South China was 160 yuan/ton. On May 7, 2025, the LME official price was $9,390 per ton, and the spot premium was $23 per ton [4]. Supply - side Information - As of April 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.04 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 19,200 tons, a decrease of 375 tons from the previous period. As of May 8, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 90,400 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 191,800 tons, a slight decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 158,700 short tons, an increase of 2,094 short tons from the previous period [9].

原油、黄金价格双双重挫 五一期间，国内期货市场休市，但国际大宗商品市场却风云变幻，原油、黄金、铜等主要产品价格承压 波动。 4月30日~5月3日，COMEX黄金期货累计下跌约80美元，盘中跌破每盎司3300美元关口，一度触及每盎 司3209.4美元低位，5月5日由跌转涨；COMEX铜、WTI原油等主要期货品种也高位下挫，分别累计下 跌约4.14%、7.58%。 宏观面上，光大期货研究报告称，美国多项关键经济数据相继公布，整体表现呈现出喜忧参半的态势。 关税破局谈判的消息不断涌现，推动市场风险偏好持续回升，进而促使海外大类资产呈现出"股强债 弱"的格局。 聚酯产业链方面，成本端原油市场遭重创背景下，聚酯交易相对清淡。一德期货分析，PTA由于短期检 修供需大幅去库，但6月以后随着装置开启以及新产能投产，供应增加叠加需求下滑格局下，PTA期货 价格承压。乙二醇方面煤化工检修高峰已过，供应环比回升，需求方面后期又有下滑预期，供需格局整 体偏宽松。整体看，聚酯产业链成本端支撑减弱，需求走弱格局下价格震荡偏弱。 黄金重挫，贵金属波动 贵金属市场在五一期间也经历了剧烈波动。 此外，假期期间全球投资者关注的2025年伯克希尔 ...