证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 打得一拳开，免得百拳来——策略周聚焦 "对等关税"的本质：美国再工业化 中国政策应对：打的一拳开，免得百拳来 （1）中国与其他国家相比：对等反制、率先回应。我们认为，此次中方的反 制措施是基于前期高度成熟的预案的发布，而非临时应对的结果。中方率先发 布了"完全对等"的反制措施；"打得一拳开，免得百拳来"，体现了当下中方 以主动出击化解潜在威胁的战略思想。 我们认为特朗普的关税政策只是手段而非目的。目前美国政府的财务状况已十 分紧张，增加税收已成为满足其政府支出的主要手段。而当前的"对等关税" 既满足其短期财政开源需求，又试图以美国市场单边优势倒逼贸易伙伴让步。 长期来看，特朗普政府试图通过抑制进口消费提升储蓄率以缓解债务压力，同 时以关税壁垒重塑全球价值链分工体系，其核心是国家安全逻辑下的"再工业 化"进程，而非单纯的贸易平衡。 从金本位视角看全球资本市场关税反应 4/2 特朗普签署"对等关税"行政令以来全球资本市场恐慌加剧，标普 500 波 动率指数（VIX）从 4/2 的 21.5 飙升至 4/4 的 45.3，已达到 20 年 3 月因全球 疫情扩散造成冲击以来的最 ...

Core Views - The ongoing tariff situation remains uncertain, with recession expectations accelerating the shift to recession trading, potentially leading to synchronized cycles between China and the US [1] - Short-term focus should be on core assets, with a recommendation to concentrate on sectors such as self-sufficiency, military industry, domestic demand, and dividends [1][5] - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump significantly exceeds expectations, with a potential 34% tariff on China impacting exports and GDP growth [2][5] Economic Impact - The anticipated 54% increase in tariffs since Trump's presidency could reduce China's export growth by 8.2 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points if the tariffs remain in place throughout the year [2] - Domestic policies are expected to respond with counter-cyclical measures to ensure stable economic development [2][5] Sector Analysis - Core assets are expected to outperform, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate resilience and competitive advantages, particularly in manufacturing and technology [1][5] - The agricultural sector may benefit from rising prices due to retaliatory measures, while the machinery sector should focus on resilient end-demand and competitive supply structures [5] - The banking sector is showing defensive value amid rising market volatility, with stable fundamentals expected to support performance [18] Market Strategy - The strategy suggests a shift towards low-valuation sectors with strong earnings certainty, particularly in consumer themes, agriculture, and semiconductor materials [9] - The focus on domestic consumption and self-sufficiency is emphasized as external pressures increase [9] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for investment in core assets as the market adjusts to external shocks, with a recommendation for a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy [1] - The energy sector, particularly airlines, is expected to see improved margins due to falling oil prices, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [13]

高毅资产管理产品持有人请关注并注册"高毅资产客户服务"，查询持有资产、产品净值，获取更多产品资讯。 在经历了2024年的弱复苏与结构性调整后，中国资本市场在2025年将面临哪些新机遇与挑战？ 在与投资人的年 度 交流中，高毅资产合伙人、资深基金经理孙庆瑞 认为， 2025年对经济影响较大 的 三大关键变量 是 美国关税 博弈、地产修复节奏与政策工具箱的边际效能 ，需要保持密切关注。在此背景下，其投资策略将通过"外循环 +内循环"双主线 展开 。 她具体分享了 消费电子、 工业、互联网 等领域的结构性机会。 01 展望2025年：重点关注关税、地产与政策三大变量 请您展望2025年，有哪些重要指标或因素是您关注的？ 孙庆瑞： 展望2025年，对中国经济影响较大的三大因素值得关注： 第一，美国加征关税。根据IMF测算， 2024年1-8月，中国对美国出口份额较2017年下降了 3.5%，同期，中国对东盟、俄罗斯出口份额分别上升了3.4%、1.1%。在此期间，中国大陆占美国 进口金额从最高点22%下滑至14%，而中国占全世界商品出口的份额占比达到14%，维持在历史最 高水平。这表明中国通过贸易路线的调整和供应链的重 ...