Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation as a more controllable option for China, suggesting that the focus should be on domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a response to the uncertainties brought by the "reciprocal tariffs" initiated by the U.S. [5][6] - The high-purity quartz sector is highlighted as a leading area, with domestic companies expected to benefit from the potential increase in import costs due to tariffs, making long-term domestic substitution promising [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index decreased by 2.4% while the overall market indices saw declines of 3.1% to 6.7% [9] - Notable stock performances included a 29.0% increase for Zhongqi New Materials and a 19.9% decrease for Jingxue Energy Saving [9] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 396.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8 yuan/ton week-on-week, but an increase of 39.2 yuan/ton year-on-year [15] - The national cement inventory ratio is 60.2%, up 3.3 percentage points week-on-week [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1413.0 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 6.3 yuan/ton week-on-week [33] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 yuan/square meter, remaining stable week-on-week [38] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price for non-alkali glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [45] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week [49] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing tariff disputes initiated by the U.S. and their implications for the construction materials sector, highlighting the potential for increased domestic production and substitution [14] - The discovery of high-purity quartz mines in China is noted as a significant development that could reduce reliance on imports [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's unprecedented tariff policies on global markets, leading to significant market volatility and a potential shift away from globalization towards more localized economic models [3][4][6]. Group 1: Tariff Policies and Market Reactions - Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" resulted in a nearly $10 trillion loss in global market value, reminiscent of the market crash during the COVID-19 pandemic [3]. - Following the implementation of tariffs, China retaliated with a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, prompting further escalations from both sides [4][5]. - The "reciprocal tariffs" were suspended less than 13 hours after their enactment, showcasing the unpredictable nature of Trump's trade policies [6]. Group 2: Globalization and Economic Disparities - The article argues that the era of globalization, primarily led by Western countries, is coming to an end, with increasing economic disparities between rich and poor nations [7][9]. - The globalization process has disproportionately benefited multinational corporations while leaving many workers in developed countries vulnerable to international competition [11][12]. - The rise of emerging economies like China has disrupted the established global trade dynamics, leading to a reevaluation of international economic relationships [13]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Strategies - In response to external pressures, China has emphasized the importance of domestic circulation, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign markets and enhance internal demand [15][16]. - The article highlights that historically, major economies like the U.S. and the U.K. have relied on internal markets for their growth, suggesting that a shift towards domestic-focused strategies could be beneficial [19][20]. - The current global trade turmoil is prompting China to address internal economic challenges, facilitating a more balanced flow of resources and production factors within its economy [22].

Group 1 - The company reported a closing price of 2.21 yuan as of April 11, 2025, with no change in price, a turnover rate of 1.73%, a trading volume of 231,700 shares, and a transaction amount of 51.281 million yuan [1] - The company is benefiting from domestic circulation policies aimed at stimulating consumption and economic growth, creating a favorable external environment for business development [2][3] - The company is actively pursuing green and low-carbon transformation, with its logistics parks receiving top-level green warehouse certifications and the first zero-carbon park project in Shanghai gaining international recognition [4][5] Group 2 - The company collaborates with China Nuclear Technology to promote rooftop photovoltaic construction in its parks, contributing to high-quality development through green energy [6] - The company provides domestic warehousing and logistics services for cross-border e-commerce enterprises but does not directly engage in cross-border e-commerce activities [7] - On April 11, there was a net outflow of 2.6182 million yuan from main funds, a net outflow of 2.5899 million yuan from speculative funds, and a net inflow of 5.2081 million yuan from retail investors [8]

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the U.S. economy and the global order, highlighting the contradiction between seeking trade surplus and maintaining the dollar's dominance [1][2] - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to have a record trade deficit of $1.21 trillion, with imports totaling $3.3 trillion and exports at $2.1 trillion, indicating a significant imbalance in trade [1] - The article emphasizes that the trade deficit has historically supported the dollar's status, and reducing it could weaken the dollar, suggesting that Trump's approach may not be sustainable [1][2] Group 2 - The recent fluctuations in U.S. financial markets, including a drop in the dollar index and rising bond yields, reflect the chaos and uncertainty stemming from Trump's trade policies [2] - The article argues that the real issue for the U.S. is not trade imbalance but the failure to address the needs of the lower-income population, which has led to a lack of support compared to Europe [2] - In contrast to East Asian countries, which face structural issues of high savings and low consumption, China has the potential to address demand constraints due to its large population and economic scale [3] Group 3 - The article suggests that China should focus on creating a robust domestic demand to support its manufacturing sector, addressing issues such as "involution" in competition and protecting intellectual property rights [3] - It highlights the importance of increasing fiscal support for households and enhancing income through subsidies in education, healthcare, and pensions to stimulate consumption [3] - Additionally, China is diversifying its export markets and increasing overseas investments to promote exports, indicating its unique role in the global production system [4]

2025.04. 12 本文字数：1515，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胥会云 对于美国特朗普政府以解决贸易逆差之名发起的关税战，复旦大学经济学院院长张军表示，正是贸易 不平衡，才维持了美国长达半个世纪的货币和金融霸主地位。换句话说，贸易不平衡本身不是问题， 而是答案。 在4月11日复旦大学经济学院举行的名为"特朗普的'对等关税'政策及其可能的影响"的沙龙上，张军表 示，对美国来说，如果要贸易平衡，就要失去更多，付出更大的代价。近期金融市场和美元指数的变 化也表明，这只会扰乱现有的秩序，导致混乱和不确定性的增加，也已经干扰了美元汇率。 "但我不相信美国人真的愿意付出这个代价。"张军说。 对中国而言，张军认为，中国有着超14亿人口、超4亿中等收入群体的超大规模市场，有更多机会来 处理需求的问题，来破解制造业国家的发展约束。中国也需要尽可能释放国内潜在的消费需求，形成 一个支撑内循环的总需求，让企业和投资者在国内市场有可以预期的稳定回报率和利润率。 如何看待中美贸易不平衡 张军认为，这种贸易不平衡并不代表贸易擂台上的输赢，而是两个国家在其它很多方面拥有的巨大差 异的写照。 比如，根植于自然禀赋、文化基 ...

PPPPAAAARRRRTTTT 1111 核心资产将迎来新周期 从政策经济周期、相对盈利优势、长线资金定价和市场生态变化四个维度看，核心资产将迎来新周期， GARP策略预计将明显跑赢。 图片来源：摄图网 聚焦核心资产 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 杨帆 玛西高娃 崔嵘 遥远 关税进展仍有不确定性，但衰退预期交易正加速切换到衰退交易，中美周期同频时点可能提前。风格上， 从政策经济周期、相对盈利优势、长线资金定价和市场生态变化四个维度看，核心资产将迎来新周期， GARP策略预计将明显跑赢。配置上，短期建议聚焦自主可控、军工、内需、红利四大方向，长期建议关注 全球各国制造业重建需求与中国技术出海的趋势。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果或经济复苏不及预期；海内外 宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国房地产库存消化不及预期。 点击查看全文 外部扰动期，关注内循环 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 侯苏洋 卿施典 任恒毅 白弘伟 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 美国"对等关税"加征幅度和广度超预期之后，中国对美反制力度明显升级，外循环扰动加大，市场风险偏好 下降，建议关注内循环为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition from stabilizing the market to stabilizing the economy, highlighting the need for timely policy implementation to mitigate economic downward pressure and avoid secondary risks [1]. Group 1: Economic Stabilization Strategies - The article suggests that the government has sufficient policy tools to stabilize the economy, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand as a key component of economic recovery [1][4]. - It discusses the importance of "internal circulation" in the context of increasing external uncertainties, indicating that investment in human resources is becoming increasingly significant [1]. - The article outlines two main directions for policy efforts: enhancing existing policies and exploring potential in service consumption sectors, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment [4]. Group 2: Employment and External Risks - The article highlights the critical importance of employment stability, especially in light of U.S.-China trade tensions, which have increased the risks associated with employment in industries with high foreign trade dependence [7]. - It notes that the manufacturing sector has a foreign trade dependence exceeding 13%, indicating that export downturns could exacerbate operational pressures on companies and affect hiring needs [8]. - The article mentions that the government aims to introduce incremental policies to stabilize employment and increase income, with a focus on timely implementation [7][8]. Group 3: Policy Support and Economic Impact - The article estimates that the U.S. tariffs on China could reduce revenue for large industrial enterprises by approximately 1.4 percentage points, with a potential loss of over 2 million jobs in the application sector [8]. - It suggests that the government may increase support for key industries, particularly high-tech manufacturing sectors such as computers, electrical machinery, and automotive [9]. - The potential incremental policies could include measures like re-loans, fiscal subsidies, and tax reductions, with an estimated support of no less than 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries [11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 打得一拳开，免得百拳来——策略周聚焦 "对等关税"的本质：美国再工业化 中国政策应对：打的一拳开，免得百拳来 （1）中国与其他国家相比：对等反制、率先回应。我们认为，此次中方的反 制措施是基于前期高度成熟的预案的发布，而非临时应对的结果。中方率先发 布了"完全对等"的反制措施；"打得一拳开，免得百拳来"，体现了当下中方 以主动出击化解潜在威胁的战略思想。 我们认为特朗普的关税政策只是手段而非目的。目前美国政府的财务状况已十 分紧张，增加税收已成为满足其政府支出的主要手段。而当前的"对等关税" 既满足其短期财政开源需求，又试图以美国市场单边优势倒逼贸易伙伴让步。 长期来看，特朗普政府试图通过抑制进口消费提升储蓄率以缓解债务压力，同 时以关税壁垒重塑全球价值链分工体系，其核心是国家安全逻辑下的"再工业 化"进程，而非单纯的贸易平衡。 从金本位视角看全球资本市场关税反应 4/2 特朗普签署"对等关税"行政令以来全球资本市场恐慌加剧，标普 500 波 动率指数（VIX）从 4/2 的 21.5 飙升至 4/4 的 45.3，已达到 20 年 3 月因全球 疫情扩散造成冲击以来的最 ...

Core Views - The ongoing tariff situation remains uncertain, with recession expectations accelerating the shift to recession trading, potentially leading to synchronized cycles between China and the US [1] - Short-term focus should be on core assets, with a recommendation to concentrate on sectors such as self-sufficiency, military industry, domestic demand, and dividends [1][5] - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump significantly exceeds expectations, with a potential 34% tariff on China impacting exports and GDP growth [2][5] Economic Impact - The anticipated 54% increase in tariffs since Trump's presidency could reduce China's export growth by 8.2 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points if the tariffs remain in place throughout the year [2] - Domestic policies are expected to respond with counter-cyclical measures to ensure stable economic development [2][5] Sector Analysis - Core assets are expected to outperform, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate resilience and competitive advantages, particularly in manufacturing and technology [1][5] - The agricultural sector may benefit from rising prices due to retaliatory measures, while the machinery sector should focus on resilient end-demand and competitive supply structures [5] - The banking sector is showing defensive value amid rising market volatility, with stable fundamentals expected to support performance [18] Market Strategy - The strategy suggests a shift towards low-valuation sectors with strong earnings certainty, particularly in consumer themes, agriculture, and semiconductor materials [9] - The focus on domestic consumption and self-sufficiency is emphasized as external pressures increase [9] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for investment in core assets as the market adjusts to external shocks, with a recommendation for a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy [1] - The energy sector, particularly airlines, is expected to see improved margins due to falling oil prices, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [13]

高毅资产管理产品持有人请关注并注册"高毅资产客户服务"，查询持有资产、产品净值，获取更多产品资讯。 在经历了2024年的弱复苏与结构性调整后，中国资本市场在2025年将面临哪些新机遇与挑战？ 在与投资人的年 度 交流中，高毅资产合伙人、资深基金经理孙庆瑞 认为， 2025年对经济影响较大 的 三大关键变量 是 美国关税 博弈、地产修复节奏与政策工具箱的边际效能 ，需要保持密切关注。在此背景下，其投资策略将通过"外循环 +内循环"双主线 展开 。 她具体分享了 消费电子、 工业、互联网 等领域的结构性机会。 01 展望2025年：重点关注关税、地产与政策三大变量 请您展望2025年，有哪些重要指标或因素是您关注的？ 孙庆瑞： 展望2025年，对中国经济影响较大的三大因素值得关注： 第一，美国加征关税。根据IMF测算， 2024年1-8月，中国对美国出口份额较2017年下降了 3.5%，同期，中国对东盟、俄罗斯出口份额分别上升了3.4%、1.1%。在此期间，中国大陆占美国 进口金额从最高点22%下滑至14%，而中国占全世界商品出口的份额占比达到14%，维持在历史最 高水平。这表明中国通过贸易路线的调整和供应链的重 ...