Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price has risen over 1% to reach $3489, marking a new high since April 22, and is approaching the critical $3500 level [2] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, primarily the increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [2][3] - The recent upward trend in gold is supported by geopolitical tensions and signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding potential rate cuts [3][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold has shown a strong upward movement, breaking through key resistance levels of $3420-30, $3440, and $3452, with a target of $3500 [5] - The current support level is identified at $3440, and as long as this level holds, the upward trend is expected to continue [5] - If gold surpasses $3500, investors should monitor the next resistance levels at $3530 and $3580, which could also serve as potential reversal points [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are stable, with Brent crude at $67.36 and WTI at $63.88, amid a quiet trading session due to a U.S. bank holiday [6] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to disruptions in Russian oil exports, with weekly shipments dropping to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day [6] - The oil market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical support and downward pressure from record U.S. production and weak economic conditions in Asia [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The oil market is showing a narrow trading range with a downward bias, as indicated by the MACD indicator suggesting weakening downward momentum [7] - Short-term oil price movements are expected to remain within a range of $65.70 to $63.00, with a focus on potential rebounds and corrections [7] - The recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips and sell on rebounds, with key resistance at $66.0-67.0 and support at $63.0-62.0 [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a positive trend, with the ChiNext index leading the charge, rising by 2.29% [1] - Major indices closed in the green, with the ChiNext performing particularly well, while the Shanghai Composite Index showed a more stable increase [3] - Total trading volume decreased by over 500 billion compared to the previous day, indicating a more cautious and selective approach from investors [3] Sector Performance - Gold stocks experienced significant gains, with major players like Zhongjin Gold and Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, driven by international gold prices surpassing 3,480 USD [3] - The innovative drug sector also saw a surge, with stocks like Maiwei Bio and Lifang Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit, suggesting new market expectations regarding policies or industry fundamentals [3] - The technology sector, particularly CPO stocks, remained strong, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication reaching historical highs, supported by the growing demand for AI and computing power [3] Weak Sectors - Insurance, securities, and military sectors showed weak performance, with brokerage stocks collectively retreating and companies like China Satellite and China Satcom experiencing notable declines [4] - The performance of these sectors is closely tied to market sentiment and policy direction, indicating that short-term corrections are not unexpected [4] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on identifying sectors with genuine performance, logic, and growth potential rather than chasing daily market trends [4] - Gold is viewed through the lens of long-term cycles, innovative drugs are assessed for real turning points, and technology is evaluated based on hard demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices have been adjusted downward, with gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 180 yuan and 175 yuan per ton respectively, effective from August 26, 2025, due to fluctuations in international oil prices [2][3][4]. Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices based on the average price of crude oil over the previous ten working days, with a reference crude oil price of $65.07 per barrel and a change rate of -3.90% [3][4]. - This marks the seventh price reduction in 2025, contributing to a total of 17 adjustments this year, with the overall trend being "six increases, seven decreases, and four suspensions" [3][4]. Impact on Consumers - Following the price adjustment, the retail price for 92-octane gasoline is expected to be between 7.2 and 7.3 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will range from 6.8 to 7 yuan per liter [4]. - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost approximately 7 yuan less, and for heavy-duty trucks, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by about 6 yuan [4]. International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has experienced volatility, with OPEC+ maintaining a firm stance on production increases, leading to a projected record U.S. oil production of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025 [5][6]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a significant oversupply in the global oil market, with an increase in global oil supply by 2.5 million barrels per day this year and 1.9 million barrels per day next year [5][6]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high probability of price increases in the next round of domestic oil price adjustments, with an expected increase of 140 yuan per ton based on current oil prices [8]. - The upcoming price adjustment window is set for September 9, 2025, with initial estimates suggesting a potential increase of 130 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [8].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a near two-week high of $3,386, driven by concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve independence and expectations of a rate cut in September [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased to approximately 84.3%, up from 61.9% a month ago, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2] - The technical outlook for gold remains bearish in the medium term, with expectations of a decline towards the $3,150 to $3,120 range, and a potential ultimate target of $3,000 to $2,950 [3] Group 2: Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - Current support levels for gold have been raised to the $3,350 area, with key resistance at $3,400 to $3,410 [6] - The trading strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips around $3,365 and $3,350, while considering short positions near the upper resistance levels [6] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced a slight decline after a strong rebound, with Brent crude down 0.23% to $68.64 per barrel and WTI down 0.54% to $64.46 per barrel [7] - Despite the recent pullback, oil prices remain in an overall upward trend, supported by supply concerns and potential sanctions [7] - The technical analysis indicates a small arc bottom formation in oil prices, with a focus on the $65 resistance level and a potential bearish outlook if prices fall below $64 [8]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a strong upward trend last week, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - During the week of August 18-22, spot gold opened at $3337.81 per ounce, peaked at $3378.75, and closed at $3371.54, marking a weekly increase of $35.81 or 1.07% [1]. - Despite initial pressure on gold prices due to a cooling expectation for a significant rate cut in September, Powell's remarks led to a rebound, reversing the downward trend observed earlier in the week [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell indicated that while there are inflationary risks, the Fed may still consider rate cuts in the coming months, increasing market bets on a September rate cut to 85% from 72% earlier in the week [2]. - The July meeting minutes revealed a split among Fed officials, with most viewing inflation risks as more severe than labor market weaknesses, while a few expressed concerns about the job market [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to influence market sentiment and gold prices [4][5]. - Recent discussions among U.S. and European leaders have not significantly improved the negotiation outlook, with potential territorial concessions for Ukraine being hinted at [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Gold prices have been fluctuating within a high range, with seasonal demand from major Asian markets remaining subdued, although some buying activity was noted ahead of a significant festival in India [6]. - Speculative long positions in gold futures decreased, with a reported reduction of 12,468 contracts to 141,758 contracts as of August 19 [6]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have recovered above the 10, 20, and 30-day moving averages, suggesting potential for further upward movement, although key resistance levels remain at $3400-$3420 and $3453 per ounce [7]. - Support levels are identified at $3360-$3340 and $3320-$3300 per ounce, with a break below these levels indicating potential downside risks [7].

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated August 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation and central bank gold purchases support gold prices, but geopolitical situation easing weakens safe - haven demand, and dollar fluctuations limit the upside of gold prices. The market awaits Powell's speech at the global central bank conference. Gold ETFs and long - term structural buying remain the pillars of demand [3] Details - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related indicators such as COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in graphs [4] - Gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories in SHFE and COMEX are shown [12][14][15] Group 3: Copper Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes next week and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices. The strong support of the dollar index puts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [16] Details - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, price changes, and spreads, are provided. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,690 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [17][20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate processing fees, and warehouse receipts data are also presented [27][31][33] Group 4: Aluminum Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For aluminum, the US tariff expansion has a certain impact on China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Aluminum prices are likely to correct rather than reverse considering the September peak - season expectation and rate - cut expectation. For alumina, the fundamentals are weak, with supply in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, and its futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price [35][36] Details - Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. For instance, the latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,630 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [37][49][55] Group 5: Zinc Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, smelting profit has recovered, and the supply is gradually changing from tight to excessive. The mine supply is loose. On the demand side, the traditional off - season is weak. LME inventory is decreasing with a certain squeeze - out risk. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate based on macro - observation [62] Details - Zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are shown. The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16% [63][71][75] Group 6: Nickel Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventory. Nickel iron is still relatively firm in the short term. Stainless steel prices are weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are stable. Future trends depend on macro - level guidance [78] Details - Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data are presented. The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,610 yuan/ton [79] Group 7: Tin Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro data from the US is in line with expectations. The repeated delay of Myanmar's tin mine full - resumption of production supports tin prices. In the short term, tin prices may fluctuate [92] Details - Tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indicators such as LME tin spreads are provided. The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 265,930 yuan/ton [93][98][102] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market's sensitivity to news is decreasing. In the short term, prices may rebound due to supply - side disturbances and enter a wide - range oscillation [107] Details - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,960 yuan/ton [108][111][115] Group 9: Silicon Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The increase in polysilicon production schedules boosts the demand for industrial silicon. In the medium term, the downside space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the future [117] Details - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices, spreads, and production and inventory data are presented. The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.27% [117][118][132]

新华财经北京8月22日电周四（8月21日）国际金价震荡小幅收跌。当天现货黄金开盘3349.26美元，最 高3352.12美元，最低3324.95美元，收盘报3338.40美元，全天波幅27.17美元，下跌9.70美元，跌幅 0.29%，日K线呈现有下影线的小阴线形态，再次确认了短期低点。 技术上看，自4月22日创下历史新高一来，近四个月金价维持在3250美元-3450美元的宽幅区间震荡。虽 然短期金价连续下探3300美元后回升，强化了短期在该关口附近止跌的概率，但中长期趋势仍然需等待 区间破位。 另外注意到，金价仍然没有突破3355美元一线的阻力区，暂时还不能确认是否能形成持续上升的行情。 且从日K线技术指标来看，当前金价依然受到布林带中轨及60日均线的压制。这预示着金价只有向上突 破3355美元阻力，方可再次冲击3400美元整数目标。 基于此，短期对金价暂时以3320美元-3355美元区间震荡看待，耐心等待晚间全球央行年会释放出的信 号。下方支撑可关注3300美元整数关口，其后是3280美元。若金价跌破后者，多头或需要暂时离场。 （作者系北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究团队） （文章来源：新华财经） 总结近期金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is easing, leading to a decline in international oil prices, while the actual production capacity of OPEC+ remains low, suggesting that the demand peak season may continue to support a rebound in oil prices [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are calming, contributing to a decrease in international oil prices [1] - OPEC+ has limited actual production capacity, which may affect market dynamics [1] - The upcoming demand peak season could provide upward pressure on oil prices, indicating potential for a rebound [1]

从更广泛的视角来看，虽然乌克兰危机形势出现新的变化，但全球其他地区的地缘局势是否会再起波 澜，仍需要进一步关注。鉴于地缘局势波动在近几年推高金价中的特殊作用，未来地缘局势是否会出现 再度紧张，将成为金价进一步上行亦或长期高位震荡的重要影响因素。但在新的地缘扰动出现之前，仍 需对金价的波动做好风险管理。 从更长的周期来看，美国联邦政府债务规模高企且在近年加速扩张，美元信用长期走弱的大背景下，黄 金仍具有长期配置的价值。中长期来看，若金价跌至每盎司2850美元至3000美元区间，将再度给出长期 配置的买入机会。（个人观点，仅供参考） 近期，随着美俄总统在阿拉斯加的会晤结束，俄乌冲突有可能进入新阶段，有望进入缓和期。这对于黄 金市场而言，下行压力明显，伦敦金价甚至有向每盎司3120美元的低点寻找支撑的可能。 不过，美联储降息预期可能给金价提供支撑。目前对美联储在年内余下议息会议上重启降息的预期强 烈，这可能打压美元指数进一步下跌至91-93的区间内，从而对金价上行构成支撑。不过，短期内金价 依托降息预期的反弹力度依然有限，中期向每盎司3000美元附近寻底的概率较大。 新华财经北京8月20日电国际金价在4月下旬创下历 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation rebound, with a focus on short-term trading strategies until a clear breakout occurs [4][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced a wide range of fluctuations, opening lower and then rising, with a minimum of 3323 and a maximum of 3358, before settling around 3326 [3]. - The current trend is identified as a bullish one, but the strength of the upward movement is under pressure due to a stronger dollar [4]. - The key resistance level for gold is set at 3360; if this level is broken, further upward movement is anticipated [4][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver showed limited upward momentum, peaking at 38.2 before retreating, with a focus on maintaining a bullish trend above the support level of 37.5 [5][6]. - The target for silver is set at 38.5 and potentially 39 if upward momentum is strong enough [5]. Domestic Gold and Silver Contracts - The domestic gold contract (沪金) is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets of 785 and 790 depending on market strength [5]. - The domestic silver contract (沪银) is also projected to remain bullish as long as it stays above the support level of 9200, with potential targets of 9400 and 9550 [6]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil rebounded from a support level of 62, with a current price around 63.2, indicating a low-level oscillation [6]. - The focus is on whether the 62 support level holds; if it breaks, further declines may occur, potentially reaching 58 [6]. Fuel Oil Market Analysis - Domestic fuel oil is currently weak but is expected to hold above 2800, with potential for upward movement if a rebound occurs [7].