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瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250528
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 09:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Due to the continuous improvement in tariff situation expectations, the market's risk aversion sentiment has marginally declined, the US dollar index has strengthened in the short - term, and precious metals in the Shanghai market have continued to correct. The US consumer confidence index in May was significantly higher than expected. The positive progress in tariff negotiations has boosted the short - term strength of the US dollar, putting pressure on the gold price. In the short term, the safe - haven demand for gold may be relatively weakened, and there is a possibility of continued correction. In the medium to long term, the US debt problem may lead to a long - term global trend of de - dollarization, which is structurally beneficial to the gold price. The repeated geopolitical situations in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine will still boost the safe - haven property of gold. The gold purchase demand of central banks in emerging countries and the continuous net inflow of gold ETFs indicate a stable investment demand for gold. For silver, the improvement in economic expectations provides some support, but it is strongly correlated with the gold price, and it may maintain a volatile pattern recently [2]. Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 772.28 yuan/gram, up 0.68 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8225 yuan/kilogram, up 8 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 199,056 hands, down 5,739 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 350,276 hands, down 14,143 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 121,281 hands, up 466 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 162,070 hands, up 4,748 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,247 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 1,006,250 kilograms, up 17,930 kilograms [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 766.06 yuan/gram, down 10.94 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8211 yuan/kilogram, down 22 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 6.22 yuan/gram, down 11.62 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 14 yuan/kilogram, down 30 yuan [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 922.46 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings were 14,217.5 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 163,981 contracts, up 2,772 contracts; those of silver in CTFC were 50,042 contracts, up 2,288 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 21.76%, down 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.11%, unchanged. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for gold was 27.52%, up 0.03%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option was 27.51%, up 0.02% [2]. Industry News - Trump said on social media that he was encouraged by the EU to speed up trade negotiations. The EU is seeking to speed up trade negotiations with the US, focusing on key industries, tariffs, and non - tariff barriers. Hassett said that the tariffs of some countries may be reduced to 10% or lower, and the trade agreement with India is close to completion. Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, signed a law recognizing gold and silver as legal tender in the state to protect Floridians from the impact of the US dollar depreciation. The US consumer confidence index in May rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98, higher than all economists' expectations [2].
国际金价显著跳水创月内新低,伦敦市场波动加剧投资者观望
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-28 06:30
Group 1: Gold Price Fluctuations - On May 27, 2025, international gold prices dropped significantly, with London spot gold falling below $3,300 per ounce, closing at $3,300.46, a daily decline of 1.25% [1] - COMEX gold futures also fell by 1.27% to $3,299.7 per ounce, influenced by reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a rebound in the dollar index, and easing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Price Adjustments - Domestic gold jewelry prices have been adjusted downwards in response to the international gold price decline, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook reducing their gold prices to 986 CNY per gram, a decrease of 10-29 CNY per gram [3] - Lao Miao's gold price has dropped to 997 CNY per gram, while the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market offers a competitive price of 756 CNY per gram with low processing fees [3] Group 3: Core Reasons for Price Volatility - Market sentiment and policy impacts include cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials indicating no imminent rate cuts, which diminishes gold's appeal [4] - Progress in US-EU trade negotiations and the postponement of tariff increases by Trump have alleviated market tensions [4] - Technical adjustments are evident, with gold prices having risen over 20% since mid-April, leading to profit-taking [4] - Changes in consumer behavior show a shift towards high-value channels and lighter wedding jewelry designs, with average weights decreasing from 40 grams to 30 grams [4] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Future Trends - Investor sentiment is polarized, with some leveraged traders facing losses exceeding 470,000 CNY in a single day, while long-term investors remain optimistic about gold's inflation-hedging properties [5] - China's gold imports surged by 73% month-on-month in April to 127.5 tons [5] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected around the $3,300 per ounce support level, with potential volatility of 5%-10% if the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance in June [5] - Morgan Stanley forecasts gold prices to oscillate between $3,000 and $3,350 [5] - Long-term support factors include ongoing global central bank gold purchases and a weakening trend in dollar credit, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could challenge $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [5] Group 5: Consumption and Investment Recommendations - For essential consumption, it is advisable to prioritize bank gold bars (with a premium of about 3%) or wholesale market options to avoid high processing fees associated with branded gold jewelry [6]
翁富豪:5.27美联储政策预期下,今日黄金如何操作?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 04:33
操作策略: 1.黄金建议回调3320-3325区域做多,止损在3312,目标看3355-3385,破位持有 受特朗普宣布暂停对欧盟加征高关税影响,市场避险情绪降温,现货黄金开盘后震荡下行,货币政策方面,欧洲 央行管委西姆库斯称6月仍存降息可能,美联储卡什卡利则表示9月前利率调整方向"尚不确定"。最新CME"美联 储观察"数据显示,6月维持利率不变的概率为94.4%,降息25个基点的概率为5.6%;7月累计降息25个基点的概率 升至23.9%,累计降息50个基点的概率仅为1.1%。综合来看,当前美国与多国的贸易谈判持续推进,翁富豪建议 大家重点关注谈判进展及地缘局势变化对黄金市场的影响。 从技术面分析来看,月线级别呈现四连阳走势,前三个上涨月后均出现单月回调,当前已连续四个月收涨,五月 份翁老师提醒需重点关注市场风险。周线级别显示黄金在3160区域获得有效支撑,中期看多观点维持不变,只有 跌破该支撑位才会转为下行压力。日线级别当前支撑位于3278区域,价格在此上方运行则保持上行趋势。四小时 级别关键支撑在3320-3325区间,这也是昨日低点位置,正如预期价格在此止跌回升,只要不跌破该区间就继续 关注上行走势; ...
张尧浠:欧美贸易谈判与地缘局势、金价多头减弱仍有反弹
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 23:41
Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to rebound despite recent fluctuations, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade negotiations between the US and EU [1][10][11]. Market Performance - On May 26, gold opened at $3354.98 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3323.64, and closed at $3341.30, marking a decrease of $16.4 or 0.49% from the previous close of $3357.70 [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $34.06, indicating volatility in the market [1]. Influencing Factors - The US dollar index showed weakness, which limited bullish momentum for gold [3][6]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions involving Iran and Israel, have led to a resurgence in safe-haven demand for gold [5][11]. - The recent shift in President Trump's stance on EU tariffs has created uncertainty in trade negotiations, potentially impacting gold prices [10]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a bullish trend despite recent volatility [13]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has regained strength, moving above the 5-week moving average, with potential targets of $3400 and $3500 [14]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is near resistance levels around $3500, with short-term bullish signals still present [16]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data, including durable goods orders and consumer confidence indices, are expected to influence market sentiment and gold prices [8][10]. - The potential for a US debt crisis and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may further support gold prices as a hedge against inflation [11].
瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250526
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 09:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and the weakening of the US dollar. The credit risk of the US dollar increases, and the investment demand for gold is stable. For silver, it mainly follows the upward trend of gold, and a mid - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended, while short - term correction pressure should be noted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 777.3 yuan/gram, down 2.8 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8280 yuan/kilogram, up 17 yuan. - The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 216,132 lots, down 4,380 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 371,701 lots, up 16,590 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract was 120,991 lots, up 6,047 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract was 163,357 lots, up 59 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,247 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 957,380 kilograms, down 3,261 kilograms [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 776.2 yuan/gram; the spot price of silver was 8,235 yuan/kilogram, up 20 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.1 yuan/gram, up 8.7 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 45 yuan/kilogram, up 3 yuan [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The net non - commercial position of gold CFTC (weekly) was 163,981 contracts, up 2,772 contracts; the net non - commercial position of silver CTFC (weekly) was 50,042 contracts, up 2,288 contracts. - The total supply of gold (quarterly) was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver (yearly) was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. - The total demand for gold (quarterly) was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global demand for silver (yearly) was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was - 8.12%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 22.12%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 27.49%, down 0.39%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 27.49%, down 0.38% [3]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump agreed to extend the deadline for the 50% tariff on the EU to July 9. - The 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, said that although the threshold for a short - term interest rate cut is "slightly high", a rate cut is still possible in the next 10 to 16 months. - Tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to intensify. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June was 94.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut was 5.6% [3].
黄金大涨,打脸特朗普,超级行情继续!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 05:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the volatility of gold prices, with significant fluctuations becoming commonplace, particularly after April, where daily price changes of $100 have become routine [1][3] - The current market conditions are driven by various factors including trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, and uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies, leading to increased investor speculation in gold [3][5] - The gold market is expected to experience a range of $2950 to $3500, with potential for both long and short positions as long as there are sufficient reasons and risk management is in place [3][5] Group 2 - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3415 and $3438, with a potential breakthrough leading to new highs around $3500, while support levels are noted at $3280-$3285 and $3300 [5][8] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on the range between $3365 and $3330, with opportunities for both long and short positions depending on market movements [7][8] - The silver market is advised to follow gold's trends without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [9]
黄金又上演冲高大跌,大扫荡行情还要持续多久?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-23 01:26
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and economic recession fears [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has seen unprecedented daily price movements, with fluctuations of $100 becoming routine, indicating a highly speculative environment [1]. - The recent trading session showed a high of 3345 and a low of 3279, with a total daily range of $66, which is considered normal for recent market conditions [1][3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt strict stop-loss strategies and to be flexible in their trading approach, whether going long or short, as long as there are solid reasons for their positions [1]. - Key support levels to watch include the 3280 area, with potential pullbacks to 3250-55 or even 3200 if the market declines [5][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 3315 area acting as a resistance level and the 3280 area serving as a support level [7]. - The trading strategy should involve buying near support levels and selling at resistance, with specific attention to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages for additional support [5][7].
黄金,继续飙升,缺口回补后,提防空头突袭!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 02:46
Group 1 - Gold has experienced significant volatility in 2023, with daily price fluctuations of $100 becoming common, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies [1][3] - The current trading range for gold is expected to oscillate between $2950-$3500, with potential for large price swings, indicating opportunities for both long and short positions [1] - Recent trading patterns show that gold tends to rise during Asian sessions, consolidate during European sessions, and rebound during U.S. sessions, which traders should monitor closely [3][4] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but there are signs of overbought conditions, suggesting caution against chasing prices [4] - Specific resistance levels for gold are identified at $3334-$3355, with support around $3285-$3290, indicating key price points for traders to watch [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [7] Group 3 - U.S. stock futures are showing high volatility, with expectations of a potential downturn as they approach historical highs, influenced by recent downgrades in U.S. credit ratings [7] - Crude oil prices have shown resilience after a recent drop, with a focus on the $61 support level and potential for further gains if the $65 resistance is broken [8][9]
黄金、原油携手拉涨,地缘局势又有新变化?期市如何把握机会?期货资深研究员Leo正在为您深度剖析当前市场格局,前瞻黄金、原油基本面以及大宗商品的未来走势。立即进入直播间。
news flash· 2025-05-21 07:08
Core Viewpoint - The current geopolitical situation is influencing the market, particularly in the commodities sector, with a focus on the rising prices of gold and oil [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold and oil prices are experiencing an upward trend, indicating potential investment opportunities in these commodities [1] - The live analysis by a senior researcher aims to provide insights into the current market dynamics and future trends for gold, oil, and other commodities [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The discussion includes a forward-looking perspective on the fundamentals affecting gold and oil prices, suggesting that ongoing geopolitical changes may continue to impact these markets [1]
金都财神:5.21黄金行情走势分析及操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 05:36
Group 1 - Gold prices increased by over 1% to $3,299 due to uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies leading to a weaker dollar and a decline in U.S. stocks, alongside ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine attracting safe-haven buying [1] - On May 21, gold continued to rise, reaching a one-week high of $3,314.36, driven by reports of Israel preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, further supporting safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Investors are primarily focused on U.S. tax reform news, geopolitical developments, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as well as changes in international trade dynamics [1] Group 2 - In the previous trading day, gold prices dipped to $3,204 before rebounding, with recommendations to buy between $3,206 and $3,209, resulting in significant profits as gold prices surged during the European session [3] - The daily chart shows two consecutive bullish candles, with the 5-day moving average trending upwards, and KDJ indicators transitioning from overbought to a bullish crossover, while MACD indicators show a reduction in bearish momentum [3] - The hourly chart indicates a high of $3,314.3 before a pullback, currently trading around $3,294, with KDJ indicators showing a bearish crossover and MACD indicators indicating a consolidation above the zero line, suggesting a short-term bearish trend [3] Group 3 - Recommendations for trading include buying gold around $3,261 to $3,264 with a stop loss at $3,255 and a take profit target of $3,290 to $3,300 [5] - Additionally, a recommendation to sell gold around $3,317 to $3,320 with a stop loss at $3,325 and a take profit target of $3,290 is provided [5]