Core Viewpoint - The overall macro analysis indicates a bullish outlook for equity and bond assets, while industrial products are viewed negatively. Gold assets are also favored due to positive macro conditions [1][7]. Macro Analysis - Equity assets are supported by favorable macro conditions, with a positive trend and moderate valuation, indicating capital inflow [2][23]. - Bond assets are also favored on the macro level, although they show a downward trend [2][23]. - Industrial products face negative macro conditions, despite a rising price trend [2][23]. - Gold assets benefit from positive macro conditions and an upward price trend [2][23]. Technical Analysis - The latest trend indicators show upward trends for equity, industrial products, and gold, while bond prices are trending down [12][13]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) is at 52.65%, indicating a moderate valuation level for equity assets [16][17]. Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 2.64% as of August 2025, with an annualized return of 11.96% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations achieved returns of 3.50% and 0.79%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.50% and 9.63% since April 2006 [30][29]. Summary of Indicators - The macro and technical indicators for various asset classes show a low correlation, averaging around 0.17, suggesting that both should be considered in asset evaluation [21][22]. - The total scores for asset classes indicate a bullish stance on equities and gold, while industrial products are viewed negatively [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment poses challenges for traditional investment products, prompting investors to seek alternatives that balance safety, liquidity, and returns [5][6][7]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - Major banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1%, leading to a search for "deposit alternatives" among investors [5][6]. - The low interest rate trend is expected to persist, affecting the returns of traditional stable products like bank deposits and money market funds [6][7]. - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation to balance risk and return, utilizing strategies like "fixed income plus" to enhance yields [6][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A diversified strategy is essential, focusing on high-quality credit bonds and interest rate bonds as core assets, complemented by equities and convertible bonds for yield enhancement [6][9]. - Investors should consider low-volatility fixed income products, which typically have a maximum drawdown of less than 2%, making them suitable for short-term idle funds [7][8]. - The use of AI and quantitative tools is recommended to improve risk management and enhance investment flexibility in a low interest rate environment [6][9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - In an "asset scarcity" environment, investors should prioritize safety, yield, and liquidity through diversified and dynamic asset allocation [9][10]. - A balanced portfolio should include stocks, bonds, and commodities, utilizing strategies like risk parity and dynamic balancing to optimize risk-return profiles [9][10]. - High-quality, stable dividend-paying stocks are attractive in a low interest rate environment, while growth stocks should be selectively included for potential higher returns [10][11]. Group 4: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently experiencing increased volatility, with a need for investors to balance safety margins and yield flexibility [11][17]. - The outlook for the bond market is neutral, with short-term assets showing higher certainty and long-term assets gradually revealing comparative advantages [17]. - Credit risk in the bond market is expected to decrease, providing opportunities for investment in high-rated credit bonds [11][17].

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Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive investment framework that integrates macro, meso, and micro perspectives to identify potential investment opportunities and risks in the current economic environment [2][11]. Macro Analysis - Macro factors can be broken down into three key elements: growth, inflation, and monetary & fiscal policies, with indicators such as PMI, PPI & CPI, and M1 being crucial for observation [3]. - The macroeconomic cycle can be predicted by analyzing these indicators, with specific attention to the experience of past downturns and recoveries [3][4]. - The expectation of mean reversion in macro indicators like PMI and PPI is highlighted as a reliable investment strategy, especially in the context of the current economic conditions [4]. Meso Industry Analysis - Investment should focus on industries in an upward phase of the economic cycle, particularly those with oligopolistic or monopolistic competition structures [5]. - The selection of leading companies within these industries should be based on their market share, profitability, and competitive advantages [5]. - Industry cycles can be assessed using various cycles, with a focus on the utilization rates of production capacity and inventory cycles to determine optimal entry points for investment [6][7]. Micro Financial Analysis - Key financial metrics for evaluating companies include a solid balance sheet with a Debt/Equity Ratio below 70%, a profit and cash flow alignment, and a sustainable payout ratio of over 30% [8][10]. - The importance of free cash flow generation and reasonable valuation multiples (e.g., below 10x P/E or 10x market cap/free cash flow) is emphasized for long-term investment success [9]. - Companies that maintain a consistent dividend payout ratio while reinvesting retained earnings for growth are seen as ideal candidates for investment [10].

Group 1 - The event "King's Little Two Club National Tour Investment Salon" was held in Taiyuan, focusing on ETF investment strategies and allocation directions, coinciding with significant milestones in the A-share market and ETF total scale [1][6] - As of August 25, the total scale of ETFs in the market has surpassed 5 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 1 trillion yuan since the end of last year, with an increase of nearly 30% [6] - The salon featured experts from various institutions, including Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Bosera Fund, discussing ETF investment strategies and asset allocation methodologies [3][4] Group 2 - The salon included a presentation on the latest developments in the Shenzhen ETF market and key ETF products [7] - A discussion on asset allocation strategies was led by Dongwu Securities' chief strategist, addressing the impact of various economic factors on asset allocation [9] - Bosera Fund's manager shared insights on ETF investment strategies, particularly focusing on gold ETFs and their role as a hedge against economic uncertainties [11][13] Group 3 - The event also featured a session on investment advisory practices, providing a comprehensive analysis of the investment advisory methodology from a brokerage perspective [14] - Interactive activities were organized to engage participants, fostering a lively atmosphere for discussions on ETF investment [16][18] - The salon included fun activities and giveaways, enhancing participant engagement and community building [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of a leading private equity firm, Xiangju Capital, which has transitioned from primarily active management to a multi-strategy hedge fund that integrates subjective and quantitative approaches, marking a new phase of development driven by both strategies [2][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Xiangju Capital has developed a multi-asset absolute return strategy based on asset allocation principles, which aims for steady, low-volatility returns, comparable to "fixed income+" products [2][5]. - The strategy utilizes various quantitative sub-strategies to achieve its goals, focusing on maintaining a consistent return while minimizing risk [5][9]. - The firm emphasizes the importance of long-term asset allocation and the combination of subjective and quantitative strategies to enhance decision-making and risk management [10][8]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The general manager of Xiangju Capital, Liang Hui, believes that the recent rise in the equity market reflects the long-term positive outlook of the Chinese economy, with expectations for a slow bull market [11][12]. - Key investment areas identified include AI computing power, consumer sectors, and companies with strong global competitiveness [13][12]. - The firm has adapted its investment methodology to include a broader range of strategies, focusing on both growth and dividend strategies to optimize portfolio performance [12][13]. Group 3: Performance and Demand - The "fixed income+" products have seen significant performance this year, with some funds reporting net value increases exceeding 30%, driven by a low-interest-rate environment and a demand for absolute returns [4]. - The total market size of "fixed income+" funds has reached 1.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 250 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, indicating a 15% increase [4]. - There is a growing demand for low-risk, absolute return products, which Xiangju Capital aims to fulfill through its innovative strategies and risk management practices [6][9].

Group 1: Satellite Communication Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released guidelines to optimize business access and promote the development of the satellite communication industry [1] Group 2: ETF Market Growth - The total scale of ETFs in the market reached 5.07 trillion yuan as of August 25, marking the fastest time to cross the 5 trillion yuan threshold in history [2] - The E Fund ChiNext ETF surpassed 100 billion yuan, becoming the largest ChiNext ETF in the market [3] Group 3: Brokerage Performance - Major brokerages such as CITIC Securities reported significant growth in their mid-year performance, with CITIC Securities achieving an operating income of 33.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.44% [8] - The total assets of CITIC Securities exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.67% compared to the end of the previous year [8] Group 4: Fund Management Changes - Huang Deliang was appointed as the new chairman of Xingyin Fund, expected to enhance collaboration between the fund company and its stakeholders [5] - Tan Zhiyong was appointed as the deputy general manager of China Merchants Fund, part of ongoing efforts to optimize the management team [10] - Li Yongxing was appointed as the deputy general manager of Su Xin Fund, bringing 18 years of experience in the securities industry [11] Group 5: Financial Technology and Investment in Hong Kong - The Hong Kong Investment Promotion Agency highlighted opportunities in the financial services and fintech sectors, driven by a resurgence in IPO activities [6] - Many entrepreneurs are establishing family offices in Hong Kong to manage family assets, indicating a trend of expansion into international markets [6][7] Group 6: Private Equity Insights - Private equity firms are actively increasing their positions in the stock market, focusing on sectors such as technology, consumption, and biomedicine, as the market shows signs of a bullish trend [15]

Report Information - Report Title: "Research on Major Asset Classes Isn't Complicated: The Second Lesson from a Decade of Research" [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liu Yu [5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Different major asset classes have unique risk - return characteristics, and these characteristics change over time. Therefore, investors should regularly re - evaluate these features, select high - quality assets, and aim for beta returns by avoiding frequent timing and trading [2][13] - The pricing of stocks, bonds, and gold can be unified within a framework of liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior. Understanding these factors helps in analyzing asset price trends and making investment decisions [3] Summary by Directory 1. What is a Good Asset? - Asset characteristics can be evaluated using the risk - return ratio, which combines return and volatility. Assets with high returns and low volatility are considered good assets [11][12] - Historically, gold has shown an upward trend, and the domestic bond market has been in a long - term bull market since 2018, both providing good holding experiences. The domestic stock market is range - bound, making timing crucial for investors [12] - In 2025 from January to July, due to factors such as US tariff policies and the entry of market - stabilizing funds, the risk - return ratios of various assets changed significantly. Gold's ratio increased, domestic equities improved, and pure - bond indices deteriorated [2][12] 2. The Unified Framework for Major Asset Classes - Asset price movements have three phases: rising, falling, and sideways. The key to research and investment is to find the inflection points between these phases. The pricing of stocks, bonds, and gold can be unified under the framework of liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior [3][16] - Liquidity refers to the ease of obtaining funds in the market. Loose monetary policies usually lead to more funds flowing into the capital market, driving up asset prices [3][17] - Risk preference reflects investors' expectations and confidence in the future. It is influenced by economic fundamentals and policy expectations, and has a significant impact on asset pricing [18][19] - Institutional behavior affects the market in two ways: strengthening short - term trends and having a structural impact on specific sectors [4][20] 3. Equities: Risk Preference is Key - Stock market pricing can be simply measured by the price - earnings ratio, and risk preference is a crucial factor. High risk preference leads to more optimistic pricing, while low risk preference can cause prices to fall [21] - The balance of margin trading can be used to measure market risk preference. An increase in the balance indicates rising risk preference, and vice versa [21] - The driving factors for risk preference in the stock market include corporate earnings and policy expectations. Different driving factors require different investment strategies [26][31] 4. Bonds: Monetary Policy is the Lifeline - The main ways to obtain returns in the bond market are through coupon payments, leverage, and duration. Monetary policy and the money market are vital for the bond market [33][35] - The net lending scale of the banking system can be used to judge the stability of the money market. Policy changes and institutional behavior can also have a significant impact on the bond market [35][40] 5. Gold: De - dollarization is the Main Line - Gold is globally priced. Its price is affected by global liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior, especially the gold - buying behavior of central banks [46] - Historically, gold was negatively correlated with the real US dollar interest rate. However, since 2020, the relationship has become positive, indicating a change in the pricing logic due to the de - dollarization process [46][50] - As the de - dollarization trend continues, central banks' increased gold purchases support the price of gold, and gold is expected to benefit from this trend [50][52]

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry must enhance multi-asset allocation and promote global allocation strategies in response to current market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Global Allocation Importance - The current global landscape is undergoing significant changes, impacting investment across markets [2]. - Factors driving the bond market have become more diverse since February 2020, with increased influence from overseas markets [2]. - Key reasons for the growing overseas influence include increased exchange rate volatility, reduced predictability of Federal Reserve actions, and strengthened economic trade interactions between the Eurozone and China [2]. Group 2: Challenges in Asset Management - The asset management industry faces challenges in investment and allocation due to a high concentration of domestic institutions in RMB-denominated fixed income assets [2]. - A potential economic upturn could lead to a downturn in the bond market, ending a prolonged bull market [2]. - The current asset management scale is large but lacks diversity in asset categories, indicating a need for deeper investment strategies [2]. Group 3: Need for Diverse Asset Allocation Products - There is a demand for more diverse asset allocation products in the domestic market, particularly global multi-asset allocation products [3]. - Academic research indicates that long-term returns of an investment portfolio are primarily determined by asset allocation [3]. - The rise of passive investment is attributed to the growing acceptance of diversified asset allocation, which is cost-effective [3]. Group 4: Misconceptions about Global Allocation Products - There are misconceptions regarding global allocation products, which are primarily mainstream in developed countries [4]. - True global allocation products involve dynamic allocation of domestic and foreign assets while managing foreign currency exposure [4]. - The current market lacks such global allocation products, indicating a significant growth opportunity in this area [4]. Group 5: Strategic Preparedness for Change - Companies should prepare for changes by enhancing talent, mechanisms, and products, focusing on equity, cross-border, and quantitative strategies [4]. - The company has a strong commitment to increasing the proportion of cross-border foreign currency assets and possesses solid capabilities in equity investment and individual stock research [4].

Market Overview - The A-share Shanghai Composite Index has continuously risen since the second half of 2025, surpassing 3,800 points and reaching a ten-year high, with the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1] - The bond market has seen long-term government bond yields rise after a prolonged bull market, leading to adjustments in long-term bonds and putting pressure on bond fund net values, with over 600 bond funds experiencing losses this year [1] Commodity Market - The commodity market is exhibiting a volatile trend of sharp rises and falls under the expectations of anti-involution policies [2] Investment Insights - In the context of rising market sentiment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, key questions for Q4 2025 include whether the A-share bull market can continue, which asset classes are worth focusing on, and the impact of anti-involution policies on commodity prices [3][10] - Notable speakers for the Alpha online closed-door private sessions include influential analysts such as Guo Jin Securities' Chief Strategist, who will discuss the potential new cycle of the A-share bull market and which assets are most worthy of attention [3][5] Expert Contributions - Xu Xiaoqing, Chief Economist at Dunhe Asset Management, will share insights on macro trends and asset allocation strategies for Q4 2025, leveraging his extensive experience in fixed income research [7][9] - The sessions will include interactive Q&A segments, allowing participants to engage directly with the experts on topics of interest [4][8]