Group 1 - The value factor score has improved, indicating a recovery in the economy, with liquidity slightly loose and credit indicators showing slight improvement. The macro direction is characterized by economic recovery, weak liquidity, and credit contraction [3][8][14] - The economic leading indicators are expected to maintain an upward trend, with predictions indicating a peak in March 2026 [14][15] - The liquidity environment is slightly loose overall, despite interest rates being above the average, with monetary supply remaining positive [21][24][22] Group 2 - The credit indicators are weak, with credit volume and structure maintaining low levels, although there has been a slight expansion in credit structure [25][26] - The allocation view for major asset classes indicates a decrease in gold allocation to 10%, while A-shares are favored [26][27] - Market focus has shifted towards economic indicators, with PPI attention rising above economic concerns recently [27][28] Group 3 - The industry selection is inclined towards sectors that are sensitive to economic changes but insensitive to credit fluctuations, with a general preference for value-oriented sectors [29][30] - The top-performing industries based on economic sensitivity include utilities, coal, and construction decoration, while the highest credit scores are seen in retail and banking [30]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the stability and long-term performance of the fixed income team at ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management, highlighting the rarity of fund managers who maintain consistent performance over a decade or more [1][5][13] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The fixed income investment approach is likened to a marathon, focusing on long-term rhythm and endurance rather than short-term speed [1] - The company has developed a mature system to continuously seek excess returns in a low-yield, high-volatility environment, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic foresight and institutional behavior tracking [2][3] - Asset pricing dynamics are crucial for identifying investment opportunities, with the company considering various valuation indicators to inform its "fixed income+" product strategies [3] Group 2: Team and Talent - The fixed income team at ICBC Credit Suisse has grown to 46 members, with a structured growth path for team members to ensure the continuity of research capabilities [7] - The presence of experienced fund managers, such as Ouyang Kai and He Xiuhong, who have managed funds for over a decade, contributes to the company's stability and performance [6][5] Group 3: Product Offering - The company has established a comprehensive "fixed income super shelf" with a diverse range of products tailored to different investor needs, including short-term, medium-term, and various types of bond funds [8][10] - The "fixed income+" products are categorized into three tiers based on equity positions and risk-return characteristics, catering to different market cycles and investor risk appetites [9] Group 4: Historical Development - The development of ICBC Credit Suisse's fixed income business has been marked by significant milestones, including the launch of the first money market fund in 2006 and the establishment of a robust investment research framework [10][11] - The company has achieved substantial growth, with its fixed income business scale surpassing 670 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a successful transition to high-quality development [12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its investment capabilities and continue innovating in product offerings, particularly in response to the evolving market environment and investor needs [13]

Core Viewpoint - Qingyin Wealth Management demonstrates strong performance stability and compliance ability, with a 100% compliance rate for 3-6 month and 6-12 month products, and a 97.83% compliance rate for 1-2 year products, significantly outperforming industry averages [1] Product Innovation and Design - Qingyin Wealth Management actively innovates product design to adapt to significant changes in asset and investor landscapes, focusing on low-volatility products and enhancing product types to meet diverse investor needs [2][3] - The company has launched a "Fixed Income + Equity" series, offering various equity asset allocation options to cater to different risk preferences among investors [3] Investment Strategy and Research Capability - The company emphasizes a robust investment strategy supported by a comprehensive research framework, utilizing quantitative models and market sentiment analysis to identify structural investment opportunities [4][5] - Qingyin Wealth Management focuses on dynamic asset allocation, adjusting the ratio of equity to debt based on macroeconomic conditions and market trends to optimize returns [5] Differentiated Development Path - The company aims for sustainable performance through differentiated, high-quality development, planning to enhance product innovation and customer service tailored to various client segments [7] - Qingyin Wealth Management is committed to building a top-tier research team and improving its investment research capabilities across multiple asset classes [7] Channel Expansion and Digital Transformation - The company is exploring new performance assessment models and enhancing digital marketing tools to improve channel management and customer engagement [8][9] - Qingyin Wealth Management is advancing its digital transformation strategy to create a comprehensive intelligent information technology ecosystem that supports all business operations [9] Commitment to National Strategy - The company is dedicated to aligning with national financial policies and enhancing its strategic transformation to contribute to high-quality financial development [10]

- The BL model is an improvement of the traditional mean-variance optimization (MVO) model, developed by Fisher Black and Robert Litterman in 1990. It integrates Bayesian theory to combine subjective views with quantitative asset allocation models, optimizing asset weights based on investor forecasts of market returns. This model addresses MVO's sensitivity to expected returns and offers higher tolerance compared to purely subjective investment approaches, providing efficient asset allocation solutions[12][13] - The BL model was implemented for both global and domestic assets. For global assets, it utilized indices such as S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index. For domestic assets, it included indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. Two versions of BL models were developed for each market, focusing on equities, bonds, commodities, and gold[13][14] - The Risk Parity model, introduced by Bridgewater in 2005, aims to equalize risk contributions across asset classes in a portfolio. It calculates initial asset weights based on expected volatility and correlation, then optimizes deviations between actual and expected risk contributions to determine final weights[17][18] - The Risk Parity model was constructed in three steps: selecting appropriate underlying assets, calculating risk contributions of each asset to the portfolio, and solving optimization problems to determine asset weights. It was applied to both global and domestic assets, using indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and COMEX Gold for domestic assets, and S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index for global assets[19][21] - The macro factor-based asset allocation model incorporates six macro risks: growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity. Using Factor Mimicking Portfolio methodology, high-frequency macro factors were constructed. The strategy involves calculating asset factor exposures, determining benchmark exposures, setting subjective factor deviations based on macro forecasts, and solving for asset weights to reflect macro risk judgments[23][26] - The macro factor-based model was applied to domestic assets, including indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. For example, in September 2025, subjective factor deviations were set as 0 for growth, inflation, interest rates, and credit, 1 for exchange rates, and 0 for liquidity, reflecting macroeconomic conditions at the time[25][27] - Domestic BL Model 1 achieved weekly returns of 0.1%, monthly returns of 0.38%, and annual returns of 3.97%, with annualized volatility of 2.23% and maximum drawdown of 1.31%[14][17] - Domestic BL Model 2 recorded weekly returns of -0.01%, monthly returns of 0.48%, and annual returns of 3.68%, with annualized volatility of 2.02% and maximum drawdown of 1.06%[14][17] - Global BL Model 1 delivered weekly returns of 0.54%, monthly returns of 0.03%, and annual returns of 1.02%, with annualized volatility of 2.04% and maximum drawdown of 1.64%[14][17] - Global BL Model 2 achieved weekly returns of 0.37%, monthly returns of 0.35%, and annual returns of 2.43%, with annualized volatility of 1.65% and maximum drawdown of 1.28%[14][17] - Domestic Risk Parity Model recorded weekly returns of 0.14%, monthly returns of 0.34%, and annual returns of 3.47%, with annualized volatility of 1.34% and maximum drawdown of 0.76%[21][22] - Global Risk Parity Model achieved weekly returns of 0.22%, monthly returns of 0.39%, and annual returns of 2.99%, with annualized volatility of 1.46% and maximum drawdown of 1.2%[21][22] - Macro Factor-Based Model delivered weekly returns of -0.25%, monthly returns of 0.73%, and annual returns of 4.29%, with annualized volatility of 1.54% and maximum drawdown of 0.64%[27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of various asset classes in the first three quarters of the year and explores investment opportunities for the fourth quarter, emphasizing the importance of a balanced asset allocation strategy amid market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Equity Assets - Multiple institutions express optimism about the performance of equity assets in the fourth quarter, citing factors such as moderate inflation, easing monetary policy, stable corporate earnings, and valuation advantages in certain markets [3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to benefit emerging market equities, with historical trends indicating that emerging markets typically outperform developed markets during periods of a weakening dollar [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see a rebound due to its low valuation and sensitivity to foreign capital flows, while the A-share market is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing earnings and promoting technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Gold - Despite recent adjustments in gold prices, the fundamental logic supporting gold's strength remains intact, driven by demand from central banks and investors as a hedge against sovereign debt risks and inflation [5][6]. - Short-term technical pressures may affect gold prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the Fed's easing cycle and ongoing global uncertainties that bolster safe-haven demand [6][7]. - The gold sector is viewed as a strong investment choice due to multiple converging factors, including concerns over global trade policies and a weakening dollar, which enhances gold's investment appeal [6][7]. Group 3: Commodity Focus - Institutions are also paying attention to commodities like aluminum and coal, with low global inventories and increased demand due to economic growth during the inflation cycle [7]. - The upcoming winter heating demand is expected to support coal prices, making it a sector worth monitoring [7]. Group 4: Balanced Strategy - A consensus among institutions suggests adopting a balanced strategy for asset allocation in the fourth quarter, combining stocks, bonds, and commodities to mitigate risks and seize opportunities [8]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of diversifying across global markets to reduce single-market risks while focusing on structural opportunities in equity markets [8][9]. - The proposed allocation includes a core focus on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, with satellite investments in industrial metals like copper and aluminum [9].

Group 1: Business Strategy and Investment - The company has established a dual business model focusing on medical health operations and large asset allocation investments, aiming for stable profits and cash flow [2][3] - The asset allocation strategy is inspired by Yale University's endowment model, targeting a long-term return of 6%-10% per year [3] - As of mid-2025, the company's private equity assets accounted for 12.6% of its total assets, with significant investments in hard technology and healthcare sectors [3][4] Group 2: Product Development and Market Expansion - The company plans to launch a four-in-one respiratory test product, currently in clinical trials, to address seasonal respiratory diseases [5] - The three-in-one test product has achieved stable sales in the consumer market, with a focus on expanding sales channels [8] - The company is actively developing AIoT diabetes management tools, aiming to enhance chronic disease management through technology [12][23] Group 3: Financial Performance and Shareholder Value - The company has conducted five share buyback programs since 2021, totaling approximately ¥2.88 billion, with a sixth program currently underway [7][20] - As of Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of ¥3.04 billion, a 17.8% increase from the previous quarter, driven by iHealth products and internet medical services [24][25] - The company has committed to distributing at least 30% of its cumulative net profit as dividends over the next three years [20][21] Group 4: Market Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces challenges in the U.S. market due to tariff issues, but has established overseas production capabilities to mitigate these impacts [29] - The diabetes care service model has expanded to approximately 50 cities and 424 hospitals, managing over 366,000 patients in China [10][22] - The company anticipates significant growth in the diabetes care market, with a target of managing 1 million patients within three years [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the U.S. September CPI year - on - year growth rate was lower than expected, and China - U.S. economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address respective concerns. Globally, stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. In terms of U.S. dollar - denominated assets, commodities > stocks > bonds. In China, stocks and commodities closed higher, and the bond market was weakly volatile. Overall, stocks > commodities > bonds. The impact of previous risk events on the market has weakened, and risk sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the market sentiment was relatively stable, and major global stock markets generally closed higher. U.S. stocks had the highest gains, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index had a significant weekly decline [8]. - In the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 1.87% in a week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 3.62%. In the American market, the MSCI USA rose 1.93%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.92%. In other markets, the Istanbul ISE100 rose 7.18% [11][12]. 3.1.2 Global Bond Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the lower - than - expected September inflation data supported the Fed to further cut interest rates. The yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 2BP weekly, and the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained flat at 4.02%. The bond market weakened weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - The global bond index fell 0.19% in a week, the global government bond index fell 0.37%, the global credit bond index rose 0.05%, and the global high - yield bond index rose 0.36% [13]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, recent U.S. data showed economic resilience, and the U.S. dollar index closed higher weekly. Major non - U.S. currencies had mixed performances against the U.S. dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.39% weekly [14]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market Overview - The U.S. government announced sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, causing international oil prices to soar weekly. The market's risk - aversion sentiment cooled recently, and precious metal prices declined weekly. Major industrial and agricultural products prices generally rose [17]. - The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose 3.28%, and the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Total Return Index rose 3.65%. Brent crude oil rose 5.84%, and WTI crude oil rose 7.32%. The S&P Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Total Return Index fell 1.83% [17][19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market Overview - Policy boosted market confidence, and major A - share broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the growth style had the highest gains. In terms of sectors, communications, electronics, etc. had high gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 198.1 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable. The bond market was weakly volatile weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [23]. - The ChinaBond Aggregate Total Return Index fell 0.07% in a week, the ChinaBond Corporate Bond Total Return Index rose 0.14%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Return Index fell 0.13%, and the ChinaBond Credit Bond Total Return Index rose 0.12% [24]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market closed higher weekly. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, and precious metals performed poorly [25]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - The impact of previous risk events on the market has weakened, and risk sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | Dollar | Sideways | | US Stocks | Sideways | | A-Shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Slightly Bearish and Sideways | [31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown continues, and the macro data is in a vacuum. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, supporting two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market has fully priced in the cuts, and the downside space for US bond yields is limited. The 10 - month Fed interest rate meeting is coming up, and the future interest rate cut path and balance - sheet reduction rhythm are the focus of market games. The domestic market is boosted by macro events and themes, deviating from the economic fundamentals in the short term [6]. - Global market risk appetite continues to recover, with most global stock markets rising. The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level, and major currencies show different trends. Global major national 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuate. The commodity futures and spot markets show a divergent trend [8][12][17][29]. - Different asset classes are expected to show different trends next week. Gold lacks upward momentum and has a callback risk; the dollar is expected to fluctuate; US stocks are supported but volatile; A - shares are affected by top - level planning and liquidity; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate slightly bearishly [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The US government shutdown persists, and the macro data is in a vacuum. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, supporting two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market has fully priced in the cuts, and the downside space for US bond yields is limited. The upcoming 10 - month Fed interest rate meeting will focus on the future interest rate cut path and balance - sheet reduction rhythm. The short - term market is more affected by macro news, and the market volatility remains high. The sanctions on Russia by the US and Europe amplify short - term energy price fluctuations, while the marginal relaxation of Sino - US negotiations boosts market risk appetite. The domestic market is boosted by macro events and themes, deviating from the economic fundamentals in the short term. The Fourth Plenary Session's top - level planning for the technology industry supports the stock market's risk appetite, while the bond market lacks a trading mainline and shows a slightly weak and sideways trend [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Trends Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global market risk appetite continues to recover, and most global stock markets rise. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rises 1.92%, the Nikkei 225 rises 3.61%, the South Korean KOSPI index rises 5.14%, and the German DAX index rises 1.72%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 2.88%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rises 3.62%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index rises 0.84%. The MSCI Global Index shows that emerging markets > global > developed > frontier [8][10]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level, finally closing at 98.9, appreciating 0.39% from last week. The RMB exchange - rate index remains the same as the previous value, and the RMB appreciates slightly against the US dollar. The Mexican peso depreciates 0.46%, the Brazilian real appreciates 0.26%, the euro depreciates 0.22%, the yen depreciates 1.5%, the won depreciates 1.2%, the pound depreciates 0.86%, and the Australian dollar appreciates 0.29% [12][13]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - Global major national 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuate. In developed countries, the US bond yield remains at 4.02%, with limited downside space; the Japanese treasury bond yield rises 3bp; the UK treasury bond yield falls 12bp; the German treasury bond yield rises 5bp. In emerging market countries, the Chinese treasury bond yield rises 2bp to 1.85%, the Brazilian treasury bond yield falls 21bp, and the Indonesian treasury bond yield rises 7bp [17][18]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - This week, the global commodity futures and spot markets show a divergent trend, with the futures index rebounding significantly and the spot index continuing to fall. Affected by geopolitical risks, energy prices rise, with WTI crude oil rising 7.32% to $61.4 per barrel. The metal sector shows a differentiated performance, with LME copper rising 3.21% and LME aluminum rising 2.81%. The precious - metal sector continues to correct, with COMEX gold falling 3.3% and silver falling 4.38% as of Friday. The domestic commodity market shows a differentiated performance, with the energy - chemical sector > industrial products > non - ferrous metals > black metals > agricultural products > precious metals [29]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals correct from high levels. After the geopolitical risks do not further intensify, long - position holders take profits. Geopolitical risks decline marginally, which is negative for gold. The US government shutdown continues, dragging down the economy and the employment market. The US September core CPI slightly drops to 3%, and the inflation pressure is generally controllable. The market has fully priced in a 25bp interest rate cut in the October interest rate meeting. Short - term gold prices lack upward momentum, and there is a risk of correction. The international gold price tests the support at the $4000 mark. The actual interest rate slightly rises to 1.75%, the 10 - year US bond yield returns to 4%, and the US bond yield has limited downside space. The dollar index fluctuates at a high level, and the RMB fluctuates. After the correction of the outer - market gold price, the discount of Shanghai gold narrows. The Comex gold futures speculative data suspension is due to the government shutdown, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings slightly drop to 1047 tons, and the Shanghai gold positions are significantly reduced. The London silver spot price drops 6% to $48.5 per ounce, and the forced - buying market in the London spot market eases [32][40][47]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The market fluctuates significantly this week. The cease - fire agreement proposed by Ukraine and Europe raises the market's expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing a short - term plunge in safe - haven assets. However, Russia does not support a cease - fire based on the current actual control line, and the meeting between Trump and Putin is cancelled. The US September CPI is lower than expected, indicating that the inflation pressure in September is controllable, and the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 is basically determined, which boosts the market risk appetite. Sino - US trade negotiations are held in Malaysia, and it is expected that the short - term trade war will not intensify, but it is also difficult to reach a significant trade agreement. The dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [48]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - The US government shutdown is still deadlocked, and the market fluctuates mainly due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and earnings data. Sino - US negotiations are tortuous, and the tension eases this week. As corporate earnings are released, the market continues to raise its profit expectations, and corporate profits expand steadily. Large technology companies will release their earnings next week, which may further boost the market. The overall view of US stocks is bullish, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility caused by corporate earnings falling short of expectations and the twists and turns in Sino - US negotiations. Cyclical sectors lead the index, and the technology sector remains strong. The market risk appetite recovers, with only the consumer staples and utilities sectors recording declines. As earnings are released, the market profit expectations continue to rise, and the expected profit growth rate for Q3 rises to 9.3%. Short - term Sino - US negotiations are tortuous, and the market is more volatile [53][65]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - This week, the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets is 1.7975 trillion yuan, a decrease of 395.6 billion yuan compared with last week. All A - share sectors rise, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.05% and the BeiStock 50 rising 2.74%. Among the first - level industries, 27 rise and 3 fall. The leading industry is communication (+11.56%), and the lagging industry is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.59%). The market ERP slightly declines, boosting the risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the rapid decline in A - share trading volume. If the trading volume continues to decline, the high - level and high - valuation situation of the stock index will lack support; if the trading volume stabilizes, the market may still be boosted by macro events and themes [66][76]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - The main logic of the bond market is still unclear, mainly affected by multiple factors such as market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the tax period. There are many uncertain factors, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate slightly bearishly. However, the bond - market adjustment should be temporary. After November, there will be limited incremental policies, and the market risk appetite will lack a driving force to continue rising. The bond market should turn to focus on the fundamentals, and there should be a recovery market at that time. Currently, opportunities to buy on dips and play the trading range can be grasped. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrows 4.91bp to 36.96bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrows 0.66bp to 22.52bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrows 1.32bp to 36.54bp. As of the close on October 24, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts are 102.334, 105.615, 108.015, and 115.030 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.044, - 0.160, - 0.250, and - 0.700 yuan compared with last weekend. The trading volumes of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week are 76,489, 154,308, 264,330, and 179,114 lots respectively, with changes of +1958, - 1892, +4151, and - 672 lots compared with last week [77][88]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model estimates the Q3 growth rate at 3.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of Redbook retail sales is 5%, with an average year - on - year growth rate of about 5% since the beginning of the year, indicating that the US economy maintains resilience. The bank reserve balance drops to 2.44 trillion, the TGA account balance rises to 905.1 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale drops to 2.44 billion, indicating that the market liquidity continues to tighten. The corporate - bond credit spread slightly declines, and the short - term credit risk decreases. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, and the market fully prices in a 25bp interest rate cut in October and a further interest rate cut in December. The September CPI data shows that the year - on - year growth rate is 3%, the month - on - month growth rate is 0.3%, the core CPI year - on - year slightly drops to 3%, and the month - on - month growth rate drops to 0.2%, slightly lower than expected. This report consolidates the possibility of a 25bp interest rate cut next week and supports further interest rate cuts this year. However, the inflation risks in categories more affected by tariffs still exist [90][108][117]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The real - estate transaction remains weak, with both volume and price continuing to decline. The Fourth Plenary Session has relatively few arrangements for real estate, and the market's expectation of stable housing prices weakens again. The financial data mostly shows a slightly weak performance, and the active financing demand of the real - economy sector is still weak. The M1 growth rate is high, but this rise does not represent an improvement in the real economy. The PPI year - on - year growth rate in September is - 2.3%, and the CPI year - on - year growth rate is - 0.3%. Although the PPI year - on - year reading rebounds, the momentum for price increases on a month - on - month basis is still insufficient, and it is difficult for upstream price increases to be transmitted to the terminal. China's exports in September (in US dollars) increase 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increase 7.4% year - on - year. The increase in import growth may be related to China's capacity upgrade and the increased demand for imported mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products [118][142][149][159]

- The report does not contain specific quantitative models or factors for analysis, construction, or testing results. It primarily focuses on market trends, style performance, valuation, and fund flows without detailing quantitative methodologies or factor construction processes.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of multi-asset strategies, including macro hedging, which have shown strong performance in recent months, indicating a potential shift in investment trends [4][5][6]. Performance Summary - Macro strategies have achieved an average return of nearly 25% by September 30, while multi-asset strategies returned approximately 19%, outperforming most mainstream strategies except for equities [6]. - In the first quarter, the performance of various strategies was as follows: equity strategies at 31.19%, multi-asset strategies at 18.92%, and bond strategies at 9.26% [7]. Market Context - The article notes that market distortions caused by policy fluctuations have led to temporary asset mispricing, but as market sentiment stabilizes, the correlation between assets is returning to normal, revitalizing macro and multi-asset strategies [8][11]. - The current market environment is compared to the rise of quantitative strategies in 2018 and 2019, suggesting that multi-asset strategies are at a similar critical point of recognition and acceptance [12][17]. Advantages of Multi-Asset Strategies - Multi-asset strategies are highlighted for their diversified sources of returns, controlled drawdowns, rapid recovery, and adaptability across market cycles, which contribute to stable absolute returns [10]. - The article emphasizes that while multi-asset strategies may not perform as well in a strong upward market compared to pure equity assets, they offer a better risk-return profile overall [10]. Transition in Investment Approaches - There is a noted shift among asset managers from single-asset strategies to multi-asset strategies, driven by the need for risk diversification and multiple sources of returns [17]. - Various private equity firms are adopting multi-asset strategies, with examples including macro hedging strategies that utilize a combination of beta and alpha approaches to capture excess returns globally [18][19][20]. Specific Strategy Examples - Longxue employs a macro strategy with 70% in beta and 30% in alpha, using a risk parity approach for global asset allocation [18]. - Shida Xinghui focuses on an all-weather allocation strategy, with a similar beta/alpha split [18]. - Yuanchuang uses a risk budgeting model to allocate assets across different strategies, including economic and sentiment cycles [19]. - Zhaorong Hu emphasizes a quantitative approach to stock selection while incorporating convertible bonds and futures for enhanced returns [20]. - Guoyuan has developed a multi-asset strategy that combines top-down and bottom-up approaches to optimize risk-adjusted returns [21].