·西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 ·中信建投期货：短期贵金属或因风险偏好上升而略有承压但长线支撑依然牢固 ·光大期货：短线不能排除金价大幅下跌的可能性 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元 化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。如果美 国经济增速放缓，美联储有望开启降息，为黄金提供新的上涨驱动力。因此，贵金属的长期牛市趋势有 望延续，考虑做多黄金期货。 ·德商银行：避险需求仍是金价的主要支撑 ·SIA Wealth Management：即使美联储提前降息也不会给黄金带来大幅提振 【机构分析】 ·中信建投期货表示，特朗普再度推迟关税生效日期，或从8月1日开始征收，特朗普签署"大而美"法 案，短期或给美国经济带来支撑，市场风险偏好的提升或短期给贵金属带来压力，但长期来看，美国债 务负担将进一步提升，损害美元信用，贵金属长期支撑仍然充足。总体来看，短期贵金属或因风险偏好 上升而略有承压，长期则继续受益于美元信用的削弱，贵金属长线支撑依然牢固。 ·光大期货表示，近期市场相对平淡，宏观环境并未趋紧。市场预期美联 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant decline in U.S. crude oil exports to China, marking the longest period of zero purchases since 2018, which poses a survival threat to U.S. shale oil producers [1] - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fallen below $70 per barrel due to dual pressures, with OPEC considering increasing production, further squeezing market space [1] - The crisis is extending from oil fields to the job market, as refineries are forced to cut production and the throughput at Gulf Coast ports is shrinking [1] Group 2 - China is diversifying its energy sources, securing oil from Russia, Canada, and the Middle East, while exploring de-dollarization in oil transactions with Iran, thereby reducing U.S. influence over the global energy market [3] - The U.S. government has responded to the situation by easing restrictions in key sectors, including allowing General Electric to resume supplying engines to Chinese companies, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [3][5] - The trade standoff reflects a clash of international order perspectives, with China's actions demonstrating a break from zero-sum thinking in resource management [6] Group 3 - The 90-day tariff suspension period poses a critical challenge for the U.S. shale oil industry, as failure to negotiate energy and technology exchanges could trigger systemic crises due to accumulated debts [8] - The movement of eight ethane ships to China symbolizes a potential breakthrough in trade relations, but a genuine resolution requires moving beyond resource competition to mutual benefit [8]

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-India trade negotiations is the unreasonable demands from the US, which include imposing tariffs on Indian automotive parts, steel, textiles, and requiring India to open its market to US products with zero tariffs [3] - India's manufacturing sector, which heavily relies on labor-intensive exports like textiles and footwear, is already struggling, with its contribution to GDP falling to 14.7%, the lowest since 1968 [3] - Agriculture and dairy products are critical sectors for India, accounting for 16% of GDP, and the Indian government has made it clear that zero tariffs on these products is a non-negotiable point in the trade talks [3][5] Group 2 - In response to US pressure, India has announced retaliatory tariffs and has filed a complaint with the WTO, positioning its actions as a compliant countermeasure [5] - Indian Prime Minister Modi is actively seeking support from BRICS nations, emphasizing the importance of this group in counterbalancing US unilateralism and advocating for a multipolar world order [5][6] - The effectiveness of BRICS in providing sufficient support to India remains uncertain, but India's willingness to stand firm against the US and seek allies marks a significant shift from previous conciliatory approaches [6]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy and Asset Trends - The global monetary policy remains accommodative, leading to a surge in the supply of US dollars, which enhances the importance of gold as countries seek to diversify their settlement systems and reserve safety [1] - Decentralized assets like Bitcoin are attracting capital due to their scarcity, especially as the credit system faces challenges [1] - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with central banks increasing their gold reserves, indicating a shift towards a more diversified global monetary system [9] Group 2: Market Predictions and Economic Indicators - Analysts predict that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce during Trump's presidency, with similar forecasts from major financial institutions like JPMorgan [3] - Despite a weak dollar, the US stock market continues to perform well, supported by the export advantages of high-tech companies and increased overseas profits [7] - The dollar's status as a safe-haven asset is diminishing, with institutional investors shifting towards gold, Bitcoin, European sovereign debt, and emerging market stocks [5] Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - The upcoming market dynamics will be influenced by geopolitical conflicts, trade disputes, growth expectations, and technological competition, which could trigger new volatility [9] - Key trading themes for the second half of 2025 include the potential for gold to reach new highs, the impact of a weak dollar on US equities, and the implications of rising debt and slowing growth on Federal Reserve policies [15] - The easing of US-China chip tensions and the potential for a resurgence in China's AI sector are also critical factors to watch [10]

Group 1 - The core issue is a global sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds, with China liquidating $80 billion and Japan's central bank selling $20.6 billion, indicating a significant loss of confidence in U.S. debt [1][6] - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, with daily increases of $5.5 billion, yet U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen downplays the situation, suggesting it is not a major problem [1][6] - The dominance of the U.S. dollar is highlighted, with 59% of global foreign exchange reserves and 40% of international trade conducted in dollars, allowing the U.S. to maintain its financial position despite high debt levels [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury market sees daily trading volumes exceeding $600 billion, making it a safe haven during crises, despite significant sell-offs by countries like China and Japan [3][6] - The manipulation of interest rates, transitioning from LIBOR to SOFR, has placed global borrowing costs under U.S. control, further entrenching the dollar's dominance [3][5] - The U.S. is facing a looming fiscal crisis, with interest payments on national debt projected to reach $881 billion in 2024, surpassing military spending, and expected to rise to $1.8 trillion by 2035 [6][7] Group 3 - The depreciation of the dollar is seen as a strategy for the U.S. to manage its debt, with projections indicating a drop in the dollar index from 105 to 85 between 2023 and 2025, leading to significant losses for countries holding U.S. debt [5][6] - The shift towards de-dollarization is accelerating, with BRICS nations increasingly using local currencies for trade, and significant gold purchases by central banks indicating a move away from dollar reliance [7]

今年，继关税问题引发冲突不断，国际债券市场也烽烟四起。 中国持续减持美债，我国现在仅持有7500亿美元左右，相比巅峰期减少近一半。 到4月份，美债抛售情况越发严重，单月被美国之外的投资者净抛售500多亿美元。 为什么大家都选择抛售美债？与其负债情况有关。 目前中美日三国政府都在不断增加负债，三国负债与其去年GDP的占比为65%、138%和219%。 一般来说，占比超过60%以上，代表国家有较高的偿债风险，其国债就会面临持续被抛售的情况。 以上来看，中美日三国都有风险。 虽然三国债务创历史新高，但可能还远没有达到顶点，目前各国经济发展面临较大压力，政府需要更多资金来支持和刺激经济，否则就有衰退风险。 当负债远超GDP的60%，甚至100%、200%，这种前所未有的情况到底会如何演变？ 先说美国。 美国整个国家都喜欢贷款消费，当政府钱不够用就会发行国债，债务雪球也越滚越大。 截至5月末，美联邦负债高达36.2万亿美元，而地方的负债也达到了约4万亿美元，总负债已经超过了40万亿美元。 | | (Millions of dollars) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Amou ...

为何美股强劲而商品市场滞涨 风险厌恶还是偏好 能动摇 黄金牛市根基吗？ 2025年07月06日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 上周国际现货金价以3271.90美元开盘，最高上试3365.39美元，最低下探3247.11美元，报收3335.00美元，上涨61.61美元，涨幅1.88%，振幅3.61%，周K 线呈震荡回升中阳线。 上周美元指数以97.21点开盘，最高上试97.42点，最低下探96.36点，报收96.98点，下跌260点，跌幅0.26%，振幅1.09%，周K线呈震荡下行小阴线，再创 三年新低。 上周wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6719.49点开盘，最高上试6948.73点，最低下探6623.37点，报收6866.84点，上涨143.73点，涨幅2.14%，振幅 4.84%，周K线呈震荡上行中阳线，周收盘再创历史新高。 上周： 现货银价上涨2.60%，振幅4.65%，报收36.92美元； 现货铂金价格上涨3.81%，振幅8.37%，报收1390.96美元； 现货钯金价格上涨0.26%，振幅6.46%，报收1134.77美元； NYMEX原油价格 ...

法国经济学家Jacques Rueff在1962年曾讲过一个 "裁缝和顾客的故事" ，并把二者之间的关系 比作当时的国际货币体系。 作 者丨唐婧 编 辑丨周炎炎 裁缝为顾客做西装，做好后把西装卖给顾客，再把顾客的付款作为贷款返还给顾客，后者 则用这笔贷款再向裁缝买一件新的西装。这笔贷款可以看作是顾客的"借条"，如此循环往 复，顾客不断得到新西装，裁缝则不断地积累借条。 那么，灵魂之问来了： 等到有一天，裁缝想把这些借条换成现金的时候，顾客到底还有没有 能力支付现金？ 中国社会科学院学部委员余永定近期撰文表示，在当前的国际货币体系安排下，这个故事依 然适用。 美国好比故事中幸运的顾客，其他国家则是那位不知疲倦地积累借条的裁缝。 余永定进一步解释，国际储备货币发行国（美国）可以通过资本项目逆差或经常项目逆差， 为其他国家提供国际流动性或国际储备。反过来说，其他国家对美元资产的需求使美国得以 长期维持经常项目逆差。 换言之，美国依靠向全球借贷维持经济繁荣。 "不过 ，'借条'开得越多，也意味着美国的外债愈多。 当美国的净债务积累到一定程度后，外 国投资者和外国中央银行就会开始怀疑美国是否有能力用'真金白银'（商品、 ...

Group 1 - The dominance of the US dollar is beginning to weaken, with an increase in the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, particularly in energy and commodity transactions [5][6][7] - The rise of the CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) serves as a substantial alternative to SWIFT, allowing for faster and cheaper transactions while bypassing US financial monitoring [5][6] Group 2 - The US's technological blockade against China has inadvertently stimulated domestic innovation, leading to breakthroughs in various sectors such as 5G, operating systems, and aerospace [8][10][12] - The pressure from the US has acted as an accelerator for China's self-reliance in technology, transforming challenges into opportunities for advancement [9][12][13] Group 3 - The military advantage of the US is no longer a unilateral dominance, as China's advancements in missile technology and naval capabilities challenge US military presence globally [14][15] - The inability of the US to maintain its global military commitments is evident, with allies questioning US security assurances [14][15] Group 4 - The narrative control that the US has historically maintained is eroding, as global perceptions shift towards recognizing China's economic growth and infrastructure development [16][17][18] - The rise of alternative voices in regions like Latin America, Africa, and Central Asia indicates a diversification of perspectives away from US-centric narratives [17][18] Group 5 - The decline of US hegemony is attributed to its own internal decay rather than direct confrontation, with China leveraging its strengths to navigate this asymmetrical competition [20][21][22] - China's approach focuses on self-improvement and resilience, positioning itself as a counterbalance to the outdated global order without seeking to dominate [23][24]

"大而美"法案，正在引发全球热议！ 当地时间7月4日下午，美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，标志着这一备受争议的法案正式成为法 律。 《纽约时报》指出，这一法案使美国走上新的、更危险的财政道路，并加剧投资者对债务危机的担忧。国际货 币基金组织发言人也表示，"大而美"法案会进一步扩大美国的财政赤字，这与该组织关于美国应在中期内降低 财政赤字的建议背道而驰。 此外，一些投资者担心，美国的巨额债务预期正给美元带来压力。今年上半年，美元指数下跌10.8%，创下了 自1973年以来的最差表现。如果美元持续走弱，可能会促使投资者将资金从美元资产转移到其他资产类别，从 而改变全球资金的流向和配置。 IMF警告："大而美"法案将加剧美国财政赤字 据央视新闻消息，当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普正式签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，该法案计划在未来10 年内减税4万亿美元，并削减至少1.5万亿美元支出。 日前，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发言人科扎克表示，特朗普政府的税收与支出法案会进一步扩大美国的财政 赤字。这与该组织关于美国应在中期内降低财政赤字的建议背道而驰。 科扎克表示，"大而美"法案会进一步扩大美国的财政赤字，而 ...