截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为781.12元/克，上涨1.33%。 影响黄金价格走势的重要因素 1. 非农数据爆冷与降息预期升温：美国7月非农就业岗位仅增加7.3万个，远低于预期，6月数据大幅下 修，失业率升至4.2%。这使得市场对美联储9月降息预期从38%激增至90%，甚至有人预测9月可能一次 性降息50个基点。低利率环境下，黄金作为无收益资产的吸引力增强，为金价上涨提供有力支撑。 黄金走势与未来展望 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 近期黄金受非农数据、关税政策及美元等因素影响大幅上涨。短期来看，若美联储如市场预期降息，且 关税问题持续发酵，黄金有望继续上行。不过，美国即将公布的经济数据若超预期，或美联储官员讲话 偏鹰派，可能引发金价回调。长期而言，全球经济不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势以及央行购金等因素， 将为黄金提供支撑，使其维持高位震荡并有进一步上行可能。 来源：金融界 2. 关税风暴引发避险需求：特朗普对加拿大、巴西、印度等多国产品加征高额关税，导致全球股市暴 跌，市场避险情绪迅速升温。黄金作为传统避险资产受到投资者追捧，关税政策带来的不确定性强化了 其作为经济对冲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll data indicates a decline in employment market resilience, suggesting a potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September if inflation does not exceed expectations in the coming months [1][5]. Employment Data Analysis - The significant downward revisions of employment numbers for May and June were attributed to seasonal adjustments and new feedback from surveyed companies, with May's employment revised down by 125,000 to 19,000 and June's by 133,000 to 14,000, marking the largest revision since the pandemic [1][2]. - The employment growth is primarily supported by the education and healthcare sectors, with July adding 79,000 jobs in these areas, while other sectors showed negative growth, particularly in leisure, hospitality, and manufacturing, which lost 11,000 jobs [3][4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The duration of unemployment has increased, with a notable rise in the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits and those unemployed for over 27 weeks since 2025, indicating a growing challenge in job recovery [3][4]. - The labor force participation rate has declined due to reduced immigration, contributing to a lower unemployment rate despite weak job growth, as the labor supply has tightened [4]. Wage Growth and Economic Outlook - Wage growth remains resilient, with average hourly earnings in the private sector increasing both year-on-year and month-on-month in July, alongside a 0.9% rise in the labor cost index for Q2 [4]. - The weak employment data enhances the feasibility of interest rate cuts, with market expectations for rate reductions increasing to approximately 2.7 times within the year, influenced by the recent employment figures and manufacturing PMI [5].

Core Points - Trump criticizes Powell, stating he is unfit to serve as the Federal Reserve Chairman and is causing the nation to lose trillions of dollars [3][4] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time it has held rates steady [1][4] - Market expectations indicate a 60.8% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, with a 39.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] Group 1 - Trump has publicly called for significant interest rate cuts and threatened to dismiss Powell, but these actions have not resulted in any changes [1][3] - Powell's recent meeting suggested that the likelihood of a rate cut in September remains low, with analysts predicting potential signals for a rate cut in the coming weeks [4][6] - Trump also criticized the renovation of the Federal Reserve building, labeling it as one of the most corrupt projects in history [4] Group 2 - Analysts from Deutsche Bank expect the Fed to initiate a new round of rate cuts starting in September, which could lead to a weaker dollar [6] - Trump emphasized the importance of tariffs for national protection, stating that without them, the country would face dire consequences [7]

【导读】特朗普再次抨击鲍威尔，称其不适合担任美联储主席 中国基金报记者 张舟 7 月 31 日，美联储公布 7 月份货币政策会议决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25% 至 4.50% 之间不变。 CME" 美联储观察 " 数据显示，美联储 9 月维持利率不变的概率达 60.8% ，降息 25 个基 点的概率为 39.2% ；美联储 10 月维持利率不变的概率为 37.5% ，累计降息 25 个基点的 概率为 47.5% ，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 15% 。 对于美联储未来降息预期，德国商业银行分析师 Volkmar Baur 在一份报告中表示，如果美 联储在不久的将来更加愿意降息，美元可能会走弱。德国商业银行仍然预计美联储将在 9 月 份开始新一轮降息。他表示，美联储应该会在未来几周发出降息信号。 据悉，特朗普还提到关税，称如果国家不能通过关税来保护自己，就会 " 死亡 " ，没有生存 或成功的机会。 版权声明 《中国基金报》对本平台所刊载的原创内容享有著作权，未经授权禁止转载，否则将追究法律责任。 授权转载合作联系人：于先生（电话：0755-82468670） " 特朗普在社交媒体上表示： ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts suggest that the current strength of the US dollar is likely a temporary adjustment and does not indicate a reversal of its recent weakening trend [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Investors may have closed short positions on the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates were maintained [1] - The expectation is that once the Federal Reserve signals a potential restart of interest rate cuts in the coming months, the dollar's weakening trend will re-emerge [1] Group 2: Economic Forecast - UBS anticipates that US economic growth will further slow down in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1] - The firm projects that the euro will rise to 1.20 against the dollar later this year [1]

Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP for the second quarter showed an annualized growth rate of 3%, reversing the first quarter's contraction of -0.5% and significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter but still above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflationary pressures [1][2] Factors Influencing Economic Performance - A significant decline in imports and a rapid increase in consumer spending were identified as key factors for the unexpected growth in the second quarter [2] - Net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP due to new tariff measures that led to a decrease in imports, contrasting with the previous quarter's surge in imports driven by export countries [2] Employment and Consumer Spending - Consumer spending grew by 1.4% in the second quarter, slightly below the expected 1.5%, suggesting a gradual weakening of real demand [2] - The ADP employment report for July showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, but still falling short of last year's average levels, reflecting cautious hiring decisions amid tariff policy uncertainties [2][4] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the current interest rates during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4] - The Fed's decision comes in the context of a significant decline in the dollar's value, which has dropped over 10% this year due to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession [4] Market Outlook - The unexpected economic data for the second quarter has alleviated recession fears, while the clarity in trade negotiations among developed economies is expected to influence the future trajectory of the dollar and gold prices [5]

金十数据7月31日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，美元有望再度上涨，因 为即将公布的数据可能不利于美国近期降息。他表示，北京时间20:30公布的6月份核心PCE物价指数 （美联储常用的通胀指标）可能超出预期。其他值得关注的数据初请失业金人数，此前该数据意外连续 六周下降。这是自2022年8月至9月以来持续时间最长的一次下降，可能表明劳动力市场表现强劲。此 外，周五公布的非农就业数据也可能"足够好"，足以支持美联储继续暂停降息。 荷兰国际银行：即将公布的美国数据可能提振美元 ...

新华财经北京7月30日电（王姝睿）美联储即将于北京时间周四凌晨宣布7月议息结果，近期舆论焦点集 中在美联储主席鲍威尔身上。特朗普政府通过公开喊话、盟友施压等多元渠道对美联储发起"史无前 例"的降息攻势，甚至出现戏剧性插曲：被视为特朗普盟友的金融大亨菲什巴克日前发起诉讼，要求美 联储公开此次议息细节，虽遭法院速裁驳回，却为这场货币政策博弈平添火药味。 美联储理事库格勒因个人原因将缺席本周的政策会议，意味着此次利率决议的投票人数将减少至11人。 尽管理事沃勒和鲍曼可能提出反对票支持降息，但委员会仍有足够多数票支持利率不变。 分析称，美联储官员们现在在是否恢复降息的问题上分裂成多个阵营。焦点将是鲍威尔是否会在新闻发 布会上提供任何关于9月降息的暗示，以及他的同事们是否在未来几天和几周内开始为下一次会议的降 息奠定基础。 美联储本周会议料面临激烈辩论 美联储政策制定者仍在等待更多数据，不过本周政策会议上辩论料更加激烈，可能会增强秋季降息的预 期。两位美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼近期表态，预示着政策制定中的潜在分歧。理事沃勒主张激进降息，认 为7月底就应行动，否则美联储可能落后于形势，他指出经济风险上升且就业市场处于"边缘状态 ...

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, reaching a high of 3334.11 USD/oz after a prior low, indicating a successful low-buy strategy implemented at 3310-3320 USD/oz [1] - The current price of London gold is reported at 3327.36 USD/oz, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.98 and a slight rise of 0.03% [4] Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The recent agreement on the US-EU trade deal has alleviated some trade war concerns, which previously contributed to a decline in gold prices, although ongoing disputes may still provide opportunities for price rebounds [4] - Strong economic data has led to a recovery in the US dollar, which has negatively impacted gold prices; however, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve may limit further dollar gains, providing potential support for gold [4] - Geopolitical risks have temporarily decreased but continue to restrict significant declines in gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening and stabilizing, with gold prices operating above the lower band; MACD shows a bearish crossover with increasing green bars, while RSI indicates a retreat from overbought levels, currently between 50-40 [5] - The 4-hour chart shows narrowing Bollinger Bands, with prices near the middle band; a bullish crossover in MACD is emerging, and RSI indicates a rebound from oversold conditions, suggesting a clear demand for upward movement [5] - The hourly chart indicates stable Bollinger Bands, with prices above the middle band; MACD lines are converging, and RSI shows a rebound from oversold levels, reinforcing the demand for price recovery [5] Future Trading Strategies - For aggressive traders, a buy position can be established near the support level of 3300 USD/oz, while conservative traders may consider entering around 3265-3275 USD/oz, relying on the 3250 USD/oz support [7] - For short positions, aggressive traders can look to sell near the resistance level of 3400 USD/oz, while conservative traders may wait for a confirmation at 3445-3435 USD/oz [7] - Specific trading recommendations for futures and gold products include monitoring key support and resistance levels, with 770 RMB/kg as a critical support for futures and 765 RMB/kg for gold T+D [7]

美元近日反弹引发市场关注。本周三的美联储利率决议或为9月降息奠定基础，美元承压，但真正推动下一 轮走势的关键仍将是周五的非农就业数据。 据追风交易台，花旗分析师在最新研究报告中指出，美国劳动力市场若出现疲软迹象，将引发美联储更为鸽 派的预期重估，进而推动美元新一轮下跌。花旗预计，7月份非农就业增长将放缓至10万，失业率可能上升 至4.2%。 对于本周三的美联储会议，花旗预计不会成为市场主要催化剂，因为市场已经为9月降息预期计价。真正的 焦点将落在周五的非农就业数据，这将成为美元走势的决定性因素。 花旗强调，目前市场对美元看空立场的吸引力依然存在，尽管欧洲央行的鹰派立场对欧元的支撑已经减弱。 美元反弹背后：欧央行鹰派效应减弱 最近一周，美元出现明显反弹，这主要反映了两个因素的共同作用。花旗银行分析师指出，一方面，欧洲央 行的鹰派立场作为欧元上涨的支撑力量正在减弱；另一方面，自上次非农就业数据公布以来，杠杆资金一直 在买入美元。 数据显示，尽管欧洲央行行长拉加德发出鹰派信号并且市场重新定价了欧洲央行的政策预期，欧元兑美元却 未能上涨。这表明欧央行政策对欧元的推动力正在减弱，而美元则借此获得了反弹动能。 花旗还观察 ...