Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.63%, the ChiNext Index drop by 6.73%, and the large-cap value index decrease by 2.61% [1] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, along with retail trade, performed well, while the power equipment and telecommunications sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically high levels, reaching 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.11% on January 19, 2024 [1] - As of April 11, 2025, the risk premium stands at 4.09%, with the two-standard deviation boundary at 4.73% [1] Valuation Levels - As of April 11, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's PE TTM percentile is at 45%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 56% and 43% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index is at a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2] - The long-term view of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with the current adjustment phase starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 206.9 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 98.3 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.5742 trillion yuan [3] AI and Machine Learning Insights - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes, indicating a focus on sectors like securities as of April 11, 2025 [7][2]

Market Performance - The recent 5 trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index drop by 1.12%, while the large-cap value index rose by 0.28% and the large-cap growth index increased by 0.04% [1] - The healthcare and agriculture sectors performed well, whereas the computer and defense industries lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium, which has historically reached extreme levels at two standard deviations above the mean during significant market bottoms [1] - As of January 19, 2024, the risk premium indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4% [1] Valuation Levels - As of March 28, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's PE TTM percentile was at 53%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 58% and 48% respectively, while the ChiNext Index was close to 14% [2] - The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical averages [2] Long-term Market Trends - The Shenzhen 100 Index has experienced bear markets approximately every three years, followed by bull markets, with declines ranging from 40% to 45% [2] - The current adjustment cycle, which began in Q1 2021, appears to have sufficient time and space for a potential upward trend [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last 5 trading days, ETF inflows totaled 16.2 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 24.8 billion yuan [3] - The average daily trading volume across both markets was 1.2346 trillion yuan [3] Thematic Investment Focus - As of March 28, 2025, the recommended investment themes include construction materials and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][8]

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌4.16%，创业板指跌3.34%，大盘价值跌0.91%，大盘成长跌2.89%，上证50跌2.38%，国证2000代表的小盘跌 1.89%，石油石化、建筑材料市场表现靠前，计算机表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016 年以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/03/21指标3.61%，两倍标准差边界为4.72%。 估值水平，截至2025/03/21，中证全指PETTM分位数54%，上证50与沪深300分别为58%、47%，创业板指接近15%，中证500与中证1000分别为35%、 42%，创业板指风格 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, major asset classes generally recorded positive returns, but performance varied significantly among them, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks and gold showing substantial gains [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections Asset Performance - Large-cap stocks achieved a return of 18.24%, significantly higher than the 2.79% return of small-cap stocks [2][4]. - Long-term government bonds yielded 9.38%, with approximately 6.9% of this return attributed to price increases from declining interest rates [4]. - Newly included gold assets saw a remarkable increase of 28.19% [5][6]. Long-term Return Effectiveness - The report addressed concerns regarding the long-term return calculations from 2005 to 2024, confirming that the historical returns are stable and provide valuable reference for investors [8][10][11]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios are lower than those at the end of 2004, indicating that the long-term return rates of the Chinese stock market are objectively stable [10][11]. Gold's Long-term Returns - From 2003 to 2024, Shanghai gold had an annualized return of 8.98%, while London gold from 1969 to 2024 had a return of 7.66% [13]. - Gold's performance is highly cyclical, with significant returns during periods of high inflation and geopolitical risk, but underperforming during stable economic conditions [14][15][16]. Diversification Benefits - The report illustrated the advantages of diversification, showing that as the number of stocks in a portfolio increases, the average return becomes more concentrated and predictable, reducing the risk of individual stock failures [18][19]. - Holding more than 10 stocks leads to diminishing returns in terms of average yield improvement, while the volatility approaches the market's systemic risk [19]. Risk Premium Analysis - The report decomposed the long-term risk premiums of various asset classes, indicating that all risk premiums are positive, with stocks offering the highest risk premium [22][23]. - The characteristics of risk premiums in China are similar to those in the U.S., suggesting that higher risks are compensated with higher returns over the long term [23].

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 最近5个交易日，科创50指数涨2.67%，创业板指涨1.61%，大盘价值涨1.01%，大盘成长涨1.28%，上证50涨1.63%，国证2000代表的小盘涨4.00%，有色金 属、国防军工市场表现靠前，石油石化表现靠后。 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区域，比 如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年以来第五 次超过4%。截至2025/03/07指标3.65%，两倍标准差边界为4.71%。 估值水平，截至2025/03/07，中证全指PETTM分位数55%，上证50与沪深300分别为59%、47%，创业 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese financial market**, focusing on **monetary policy**, **interest rates**, and **economic recovery**. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - There has been a **decline in long-term interest rates** since December 2024, with recent adjustments indicating a market reaction to anticipated interest rate cuts [2][8] - The **People's Bank of China (PBOC)** conducted a **balance sheet reduction** of **1.6 trillion yuan** in 2024, raising concerns about liquidity tightening, but overall monetary policy remains accommodative with a net liquidity injection of **400 billion yuan** [2] - The **short-term interest rates** have been rising since early 2025, indicating a tightening liquidity environment compared to 2024 [3][4] Economic Indicators and Risks - The **ten-year government bond yield** has shown a significant decline driven by interest rate cut expectations, with a noted **100 basis points** drop in implied future rate cuts [8] - A rapid decline in long-term interest rates poses **financial risks**, including potential instability in safe assets and losses in financial institution margins [9] - The **current economic environment** is characterized by **moderate inflation** and weak demand, with signs of semi-inflation emerging since September 2024 [14] Construction and Fiscal Policy - The **construction industry** is experiencing improved funding conditions, with state-owned enterprises showing moderate growth in orders and revenue [15] - Fiscal policy has been proactive, with **net financing of government bonds** reaching a peak in January 2025, indicating strong government support for economic recovery [16] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has shown a mixed performance, with strong growth in entertainment during the Spring Festival but a decline in retail and dining sales compared to the previous year [17] Challenges in Monetary Policy - The balance between **growth stabilization** and **risk prevention** in monetary policy is constrained by high risk premiums, with ineffective transmission to the real economy [18][19] - Traditional monetary policy has limitations in reducing risk premiums, as it primarily affects risk-free rates rather than directly influencing investor risk preferences [20] Future Outlook - There is an expectation that long-term government bond yields will stabilize as liquidity conditions shift from loose to tight, necessitating a careful approach to monetary policy [12] - The potential for more effective methods to reduce high risk premiums includes structural monetary policies and unconventional easing measures, although their effectiveness may be limited in the current Chinese context [21] Additional Important Content - The **relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates** has been affected by various factors, including market demand for safe assets and adjustments in institutional investment strategies [10][11] - The **CPI and PPI** have not yet shown a synchronized recovery, indicating that the overall economic recovery requires further observation and support [17]

Core Viewpoints - The article analyzes the current real exchange rate of the RMB from the perspectives of export demand, capital flow, and exchange rate determination theory, concluding that the RMB is currently reasonably valued and may experience short-term fluctuations within a specific range [1][5]. Group 1: Export and Trade Demand - The actual effective exchange rate indicates that the RMB has released downward pressure, supported by strong export performance and trade surpluses, with current account surpluses projected at $253 billion for 2023 and $422 billion for 2024 [2]. - Since 2024, the RMB has depreciated less against the USD compared to other non-USD currencies, and the RMB exchange rate index against a basket of currencies shows an upward trend [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Investment Demand - The estimated RMB exchange rate midpoints based on the China-US interest rate differential and risk premium are 7.50 and 7.35, respectively, indicating potential short-term depreciation pressure [3]. - The negative correlation between the China-US interest rate differential and the RMB exchange rate has been high at 93.2% since 2022, suggesting that the equilibrium exchange rate may range from 7.4 to 7.6 [3]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Determination Theory - The BEER (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate) model is deemed more effective for estimating the RMB's equilibrium exchange rate, which is projected to be between 7.3 and 7.4, with a central value of 7.35 [4]. - The relative purchasing power parity theory suggests a long-term appreciation potential of the RMB to around 6.8, while absolute purchasing power theory indicates a possible undervaluation of nearly 40% [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain around the equilibrium midpoint of 7.30, with short-term fluctuations anticipated between 7.20 and 7.35, influenced by international balance of payments, market behavior, and sentiment [5]. - Recent manufacturing PMI data indicates a stable economic environment, with the manufacturing sector showing resilience and potential for recovery in PPI readings [6].