关 注 我 们 获 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 12」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场整体偏强运行。联储降息如期兑现，在全球白银实物库存持续紧缺引起的挤仓以及美 联储降息预期提振下，银价续创历史新高，金价走势较为震荡，金银比继续向历史均值收敛。鲍威尔表示货币政 策没有预设路径，未来将依赖数据逐次会议决策。当前通胀仍高于目标，但非关税因素导致的核心通胀已明显回 落。若无新增关税，商品通胀预计将在2026年第一季度触顶。目前利率已处于中性区间上沿，政策正从限制性向 中性过渡。"美联储传声筒"尼克表示，尽管美联储已连续三次会议决定降息，但其内部对于应更担忧通胀还是 就业市场，存在"不同寻常的分歧"。这种分歧导致官员们暗示，继续降息的意愿目前并不高。整体而言，本次 美联储的降息操作略显鹰派，2026年FOMC或仅展开一次25基点的降息操作，鲍威尔反复强 ...

Market Overview - In November, global risk assets primarily declined due to changing expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns about potential AI asset bubbles and the sustainability of tech narratives [1] - The Wind All A index recorded a decline of 2.22% for the month, with small-cap stocks outperforming, as the Wind Micro-cap index rose by 4.97% while the STAR Market and ChiNext indices fell by 6.24% and 4.23% respectively [1] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Technology index fell by 5.23%, while the Hang Seng Index showed relative strength with a decline of only 0.18% [1] Bond Market - The bond market saw a brief recovery in sentiment at the beginning of November due to the central bank's announcement to restart government bond purchases, but yields quickly turned upward due to lower-than-expected bond buying and reduced expectations for monetary easing [2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by nearly 5 basis points to 1.84% over the month [2] Commodity Market - The commodity market showed significant divergence in November, with precious metals rising; London gold spot prices increased by 5.41% to $4,218.55 per ounce, while domestic gold rose by 2.89% to ¥948.15 per gram [3] - Oil prices, however, experienced a downward trend, with Brent crude falling by 3.50% to $62.32 per barrel [3] Economic Performance - In October, macroeconomic growth slowed due to holiday effects and rising baselines, with production, investment, foreign trade, social financing, and credit growth all falling below market expectations [5] - Industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 4.9% in October, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a weakening production momentum [6] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment continued to drag on economic growth, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7% in October [7] - Retail sales growth remained weak, with consumer spending under pressure, particularly in the automotive sector, while service consumption showed improvement due to extended holiday effects [7] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy maintained a moderately loose stance in November, focusing on supporting credit demand and ensuring adequate liquidity [9] - The central bank is expected to continue using flexible open market operations to maintain liquidity and prevent significant fluctuations in funding rates [9] Asset Allocation Outlook - The current economic cycle is characterized as an early recovery phase, with external demand expected to provide support, but internal demand indicators have not shown a clear turning point [25] - The asset performance ranking is currently: bonds, stocks > commodities, with potential for a shift towards stocks and commodities if fiscal and monetary policies exceed expectations [26]

Group 1 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in the short term, which supports gold prices amid rate expectations and safe-haven demand [2][4] - Gold prices have broken through a seven-week high, indicating a market re-evaluation of the U.S. economic outlook, with further support expected if employment data remains weak [2][4] - The daily chart shows gold prices firmly in a strong upward channel, with multiple days of gains confirming buyer dominance and a bullish arrangement of short-term moving averages [2][3] Group 2 - The MACD indicator shows a sustained upward movement, indicating positive market sentiment, although the RSI is nearing overbought territory without clear divergence signals [2][3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4300, while support levels are at $4210 and $4180, which are expected to attract significant buying interest [2][3] - The gold market is entering a mid-term phase driven by interest rate expectations, with the Fed's cautious rate cut stance providing structural support for gold prices [3][4] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through key resistance levels of $4220 and $4260, signaling the end of a short-term consolidation phase and the continuation of a bullish trend [5] - Current trading strategies suggest looking for buying opportunities when gold prices retrace to the $4250-$4248 range, with upward targets set at $4270, $4282, and $4290 [7] - The overall market sentiment for gold is influenced by multiple macroeconomic factors rather than a single event, highlighting the importance of monitoring U.S. economic data and Fed policy [3][4]

不过，这钱流向了哪里，才是关键。今天的盘面，可以说是 "新老交替"与"冷热分化" 的生动写照。一 边，是 "电网设备"板块异军突起，多只个股涨停。这绝非偶然，其背后是"新基建"和能源转型的宏大 叙事在支撑。无论是特高压建设、电网智能化改造，还是服务于新能源消纳的配套升级，这都是未来几 年确定性极高的投资主线，有实实在在的政策和订单支撑。另一边，贵金属板块的持续活跃，则是对美 联储降息预期的直接反应，属于全球宏观逻辑的映射。 朋友们，我是帮主郑重。上午收盘，这盘面走得有点意思，三大指数涨跌互现，像个不太整齐的合唱 团。创业板指领涨0.6%，而上证指数几乎平盘。但有一个数据很提气——全市场成交额半天就达到了 1.26万亿元，比昨天同一时间放量了超过900亿！有量就有戏，这说明市场的交投活跃度在回升，有资 金在行动了。 而另一边，前几天还风光无限的零售、海南等板块，今天则明显进入了调整。这种快速的轮动告诉我 们，当前市场很难有全面持续的普涨行情，资金正在不同的逻辑与故事间快速切换，寻找阻力最小、共 识最强的方向。这也解释了为什么指数看起来波澜不惊，但板块间却是冰火两重天。 第一，紧跟资金，聚焦主线。上午放量，且资金 ...

【12 月 12 日美联储"点阵图"：2026 年或仅降息 25 个基点】12 月 12 日，美联储公布"点阵图"，决策 者预测中值显示，2026 年仅会有一次 25 个基点的降息，和 9 月预测一致。 美联储货币政策声明称，未 来降息"幅度和时机"取决于前景变化，暗示近期不太可能降息。 多数华尔街投行维持原判，认为美联 储明年将降息两次、累计 50 个基点，不过在降息时间表上有分歧。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

在被问及"美方扣押委内瑞拉油轮后，美国对委行动是否仍仅聚焦毒品问题"时，美国总统特朗普表示， 美方应对举措涉及"远不止毒品"，并称委内瑞拉向美国输入大量罪犯。 特朗普称，美国"正在采取强有力行动"，并表示边境地区的毒品运输已下降92%。在回应中，特朗普进 一步暗示美方可能升级行动范围，称"行动很快就会从海上延伸至陆地"，但未透露具体细节。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 摘要今日周五(12月12日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于965元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报963.40元/ 克，涨幅0.90%，最高触及964.88元/克，最低下探951.00元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周五(12月12日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于965元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报963.40元/克，涨 幅0.90%，最高触及964.88元/克，最低下探951.00元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 上海黄金t+d早盘开盘于951.50元/克，随后震荡上行，盘中最高触及964.88元/克，截至发稿报962.50元/ 克，涨幅0.81%。从技术面看，金价成功突破955元/克的关键阻 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 11月中国与新兴市场流入加速，发达市场流入减速 全球资产配置资金流向月报（2025年11月） 3 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.11 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 11月，美国政府关门宣告结束，经济数据开始逐步披露。11月21日，美国劳工局数据显示，9月，新增非农就业人数11.9万人，远超市场预期的5万人，失业率上升0.1个百分点至4.4%， 续创2021年11月以来的最高水平。市场在美元的强弱摇摆中寻找新的线索。12月10日，美联储如期降息25BPs，年内累计下调75BPs，但是本次降息出现3票反对，美联储内部分歧加 大。从11月1日到12月10日，分资产类别来看，1）权益方面，美元计价下，巴西和越南股市领涨全球，美元计价下分别上涨4.5%和4.7%，而纳斯达克和沪深300则出现下跌；2）固收 层面，10年美债收益率和美元指数先下后上，美联储降息当天下行5BPs， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant volatility in international silver trading surrounding the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision, with silver prices experiencing a notable increase from a low of $57.73 to over $62.86 [1][3][5] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate range from 3.75%-4% to 3.5%-3.75%, with mixed opinions among committee members regarding future rate changes [3] - Fed Chairman Powell expressed concerns about persistent inflation and a weakening labor market, indicating that the core reason for the rate cut was the unexpected softness in the labor market [3] Group 2 - The long-term trend for international silver remains significantly bullish, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts, aggressive policies, and geopolitical issues in various regions [5] - In the short term, international silver is maintaining a strong upward trend, particularly around the time of the Fed's interest rate decision, with market sentiment being highly optimistic [5] - The price structure indicates that a new mid-term high is in the process of formation, with previous mid-term high and low points identified, suggesting a high probability of maintaining a short-term bullish trend for silver [5]

生意社 白银价格大涨 据生意社商品行情分析系统，2025年12月10日白银市场均价14319元/千克，日涨4.95%，较本月初(12月 1日)市场均价13414元/千克，上涨6.75%；较年初（1月1日）白银市场均价7450元/千克，上涨92.20%。 白银工业需求占比已升至65%，成为价格主导力量。其中光伏产业是核心增量来源，2025年全球光伏用 银量较2022年翻番，且N型电池普及进一步增加单GW耗银量，四季度全球光伏企业为2026年备货加大 订单，11-12月用银需求大幅放量；同时AI算力服务器、数据中心订单坚挺，其单机柜耗银量远高于传 统设备，再加上新能源汽车单车用银量远超传统燃油车，这些高增长领域共同推高了白银工业需求。 2025年12月10日上海黄金交易所上海银(标准重量15千克、成色不低于99.99%的银锭，定价合约)午盘基 准报价14318元/千克，较上一交易日午盘基准报价13579元/千克，上涨739元/千克。 12月10日白银期现价格联袂续创新高，伦敦银现涨近1%，沪白银主力合约单日涨幅更是高达5.27%。 多因素共振支撑白银暴涨 此次大涨是工业需求、供需格局、金融政策及资金流入等多方面因 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...