Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined, reinforcing calls for interest rate cuts, with a month-over-month increase of 0.1% and a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, both below expectations of 0.3% and 3.3% respectively [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a slight month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, which may support the notion that inflation is not out of control, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to consider rate cuts [3][4] - Labor market indicators show signs of weakness, with ADP and non-farm payroll data declining, and the JOLTS report indicating a softening labor market [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - The stock market showed mixed reactions, with the Dow Jones index dropping 220 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 20 points, largely driven by Oracle Corporation (ORCL) which surged 36% after reporting strong earnings [4][5] - The S&P 500 index's slight increase was significantly influenced by ORCL, which accounted for a 0.66% rise in the index, despite the overall market showing weakness [6] - Bond markets saw an uptick, with TLT and TLH rising by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points to 4.03% [7] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Oil prices remained stable at $63.35 per barrel, maintaining support and resistance levels between $62.85 and $64.25 [8] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising by $14 to $3640, but then dropping by $25 to $3615, as traders adjusted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [8]

2025年9月10日，SHFE主力合约价格持平于79740元/吨，LME铜价微涨至 9916.5美元/吨，延续窄幅波动。现货市场基差全面走弱，升水铜升水缩窄 至100元/吨，平水铜升水降至20元/吨，湿法铜贴水扩大至-50元/吨，现货 出货压力增大。LME 0-3贴水则小幅收窄至-78.02美元/吨，但仍深贴水， 海外隐性库存压力未缓解。 持仓与成交： LME铜持仓减少1245手至288791手，SHFE库存环比下降0.14%至155050吨， 连续两周去库。日内沪铜交投呈现减仓上行，资金在冲高后获利离场，短 期多头情绪谨慎。 PPI数据推升降息预期，噤声期铜价更加数据敏感 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 铜市场短期维持高位波动，供给端进口放量压制现货升水，但炼厂原料长 单采购支撑价格底部；需求端电网投资与季节性开工形成弱支撑，光伏与 建筑需求仍偏弱；宏观面美国就业数据疲软加大降息预期，但地缘风险与 美指波动限制上行空间。而宏观层面，昨夜PPI数据下滑，继续推升9月降 息预期，噤声期内对数据的交易或将增加，但是上方的压制仍旧明显。 1/7 价格走势判断 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供 ...

（原标题：标普500再创历史新高 PPI意外下降助推降息预期） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊 纽约报道 截至10日收盘，标普500指数上涨0.3%，报6532.04点，盘中最高触及6555.97点。纳斯达克综合指数微 升0.03%，收于21,886.06点，亦在盘中创下历史新高后回落。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌220.42点，跌幅 0.48%，收于45,490.92点，主要受到苹果股价下挫拖累。苹果最新iPhone发布未能给市场带来惊喜，投 资者反应冷淡。 最新公布的数据显示，美国8月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.1%，远低于市场预期的0.3%升幅。 此前7月PPI数据被下修为上涨0.7%。这一数据为美联储下周的议息会议提供了更多政策空间。剔除食 品和能源的核心PPI同样下降0.1%，而市场原本预计上涨0.3%；进一步剔除食品、能源和贸易后的PPI 则上涨0.3%，同比增长2.8%。整体来看，8月PPI同比增速为2.6%。 这一报告被视为通胀压力缓解的重要信号，为周四公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据定下基调。经济 学家预计8月CPI环比上升0.3%，若符合预期，年率将升至2.9%，核心CPI则维持在 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to shift towards a loose monetary policy, enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset amid increasing macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Gold prices are anticipated to rise further due to strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside heightened global trade policy uncertainties and regional political turmoil [1] Group 2: Gold Sector Performance - The gold sector is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the first half of 2025, with both cyclical and trend forces resonating [1] - Longjiang Securities notes that gold prices have reached new highs amid deepening trade conflicts and recession expectations in the U.S., with most companies in the industry entering a phase of volume expansion, leading to enhanced profit elasticity [1] Group 3: ETF Fund Performance - As of September 10, 2025, the gold stock ETF fund has seen a net value increase of 52.09% over the past six months, ranking 55 out of 3589 in the index stock fund category [3] - The gold stock ETF fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 16.59% since its inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [5] Group 4: Fund Liquidity and Inflows - The gold stock ETF fund has experienced active trading, with a turnover rate of 17.47% and a total transaction volume of 20.08 million yuan [2] - The fund has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 33.81 million yuan, totaling 42.81 million yuan in net inflows [2] Group 5: Fund Metrics - The gold stock ETF fund's latest scale reached 116 million yuan, marking a one-year high, with the latest share count at 76.41 million, also a one-year high [2] - The fund's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.91, ranking it in the top 2 out of 6 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

Market Overview - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 10.9%, leading global markets, while the ChiNext Index surged by 24.4%[4] - The S&P 500 increased by only 3.6%, and developed markets saw a rise of 3.5% during the same period[4] Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. added only 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking the lowest increase in nine months[4] - The downward revision of previous months' data indicated a persistent risk of economic recession in the U.S.[4] Global Fund Flows - In August, global funds saw a significant inflow into money market funds, totaling approximately $200 billion, compared to $63 billion in July[4] - Developed market equities attracted $20 billion, while emerging markets saw a smaller inflow of $2 billion, down from $5 billion in July[4] China Market Dynamics - In August, China's equity market attracted a total inflow of $31.42 billion, with a notable increase in passive equity fund inflows to $36.84 billion, up from $3.13 billion in July[4] - China's fixed income market also saw substantial inflows, with $32.90 billion in August, representing 31.42% of the total emerging market inflows[4] Sector-Specific Trends - In the U.S. equity market, there was a significant outflow from the technology sector, while financials, materials, and consumer staples saw inflows[4] - Corporate bonds in the U.S. experienced a substantial inflow of $136 billion in August, a sharp increase from $15 billion in July[4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Silver: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Copper: ★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Zinc: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Lead: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Tin: ★, indicating a neutral position [1] - Aluminum: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Nickel: ★, indicating a neutral position [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Polysilicon: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Hold long positions. Supported by short - to long - term factors such as interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts. Long - term strategic allocation is recommended. Be cautious of recession trading risks [1][3] - Silver: Hold long positions. High - level volatility in the short term. With strong demand and limited supply growth in the medium - to long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged. Pay attention to US dollar liquidity risks [1] - Copper: Hold long positions. The probability of a 50bp interest - rate cut by the Fed increases. With the arrival of the peak season and tight supply, long - term optimism is maintained [1][7] - Zinc: Wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. In the short term, more macro - and micro - level resonance is needed for further upward movement. In the long term, supply increases while demand decreases [1][10] - Lead: The price rebound is under pressure due to factors such as production recovery and weak downstream consumption [1] - Tin: The price stabilizes after a decline due to a weak supply - demand situation [1] - Aluminum: The price shows a strong upward trend. With the approaching peak season, demand recovers and supply is relatively stable [1][13] - Nickel: The price rebounds weakly. There is an oversupply of refined nickel and weak downstream consumption. Short - term profit - taking and waiting are recommended [1][17] - Industrial Silicon: The price shows a short - term upward trend due to news of energy - consumption restrictions [1] - Polysilicon: The price corrects from a high level. There are expectations of fundamental improvement and policy support. Short - term support is at 50,000 yuan [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. There is a strong game between long and short positions. The market is waiting for the market to stabilize [1][22] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold remains strong supported by interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts [2] - **Basic Logic**: US inflation pressure eases, interest - rate cut expectations increase; regional conflicts escalate; gold benefits from global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring in the long term [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position strategy in the short term. Gold should be continuously monitored if it fails to break through the high of 842. Silver may find support around 9630 [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper consolidates at a high level, adjusting and accumulating strength [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. With the arrival of the peak season, demand recovers, and the overall supply - demand is in a tight balance [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. Shanghai copper should focus on the range of [79,000, 82,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [9,900, 11,000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. Demand is expected to improve in the peak season [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of [22,000, 22,500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [2,700, 2,900] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, interest - rate cut expectations are obvious. Production increases slightly, and demand recovers in the peak season. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory accumulates [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,000 - 21,200] yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebound weakly, and stainless steel rebounds under pressure [16] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is an oversupply of refined nickel and weak downstream consumption. For stainless steel, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is gradually decreasing [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term profit - taking and wait - and - see strategy, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens low and goes high, falling more than 4% [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply shows an upward trend with a decreasing marginal increment. Demand shows peak - season characteristics, and inventory has been declining for four weeks. However, news of CATL's resumption of production affects market sentiment [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, focusing on the range of [70,000 - 71,500] yuan/ton [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000. Domestic copper consumption is expected to be boosted in the peak season, and attention should be paid to the price support at 78,500 - 79,500 for Shanghai copper [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Pay attention to demand, hold on dips under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month spreads and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage [1] - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge. Short - term is supported by interest - rate cut expectations, and medium - long - term is for short - position allocation. Hold domestic - overseas positive arbitrage and pay attention to the 10 - 12 positive arbitrage opportunity [2] - The short - term fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased. Continued attention is needed [3][4] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak, and the short - term macro follows the anti - involution expectations [5] - Lead prices oscillated this week. It is expected that next week's lead prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the range of 16,800 - 16,900 [6] - Tin prices fluctuated narrowly this week. The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term supply - demand double - weak state. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; medium - long - term, hold on dips near the cost line [6] - The short - and medium - term supply - demand of industrial silicon is in a tight balance, and the medium - long - term outlook is for bottom - range oscillation [6] - The spot supply of lithium carbonate is sufficient, and the price is supported during the peak season. Before the supply - side disturbance materializes, the price has strong downward support [8] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000, and the domestic stock market volatility increased. Overseas, the interest - rate cut expectation in the US supported commodity prices [1] - **Fundamentals**: The spread between scrap and refined copper slightly rebounded. The downstream is expected to enter the peak season in September, with a slight increase in the start - up rate. The supply side has some maintenance and production cuts [1] - **Recommendation**: Pay attention to the price support at 78,500 - 79,500 for Shanghai copper [1] Aluminum - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream start - up improved, but overseas demand declined significantly [1] - **Inventory**: Inventory is expected to decline in September [1] - **Recommendation**: The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Pay attention to demand, hold on dips under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month spreads and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage [1] Zinc - **Supply**: Domestic TC decreased slightly, and imported TC increased. September has concentrated maintenance, with a slight decline in smelting output. Overseas quarterly mine supply increased more than expected, and zinc ore imports in July exceeded 500,000 tons [2] - **Demand**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience; overseas, European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory oscillated upwards, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly [2] - **Strategy**: Short - term is supported by interest - rate cut expectations, and medium - long - term is for short - position allocation. Hold domestic - overseas positive arbitrage and pay attention to the 10 - 12 positive arbitrage opportunity [2] Nickel - **Supply**: Pure nickel production remained at a high level [4] - **Demand**: Overall demand was weak, and the premium was stable recently [4] - **Inventory**: Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehouse receipts [4] - **Situation**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, the geopolitical risk in Indonesia has eased, and continued attention is needed [3][4] Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually due to the military parade [5] - **Demand**: Demand is mainly for rigid needs [5] - **Cost**: Nickel - iron prices remained stable, and chrome - iron prices increased slightly [5] - **Inventory**: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly [5] - **Situation**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term macro follows the anti - involution expectations [5] Lead - **Supply**: Scrap volume was weak year - on - year. Due to the expansion of recycling plants, waste batteries were in short supply. Refined ore production increased from April to August, but there was a supply shortage due to smelting profits [6] - **Demand**: Battery finished - product inventory was high. The battery start - up rate increased this week, but the market was not in a peak - season state [6] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory reached a historical high of nearly 70,000 tons. The supply is expected to be flat in September [6] - **Price Forecast**: It is expected that next week's lead prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the range of 16,800 - 16,900 [6] Tin - **Supply**: The processing fee at the mine end was at a low level. Some domestic smelters cut production, and Yunnan smelters started regular maintenance this weekend. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, but large - scale exports are difficult before October [6] - **Demand**: Solder demand has limited elasticity. There is an expectation of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the growth rate of photovoltaics is expected to decline. Domestic inventory decreased slightly, and overseas consumption was strong with low LME inventory [6] - **Situation**: The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term supply - demand double - weak state. Pay attention to the possible supply - demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations on non - ferrous metals [6] - **Recommendation**: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; medium - long - term, hold on dips near the cost line [6] Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The resumption of production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was slow. Sichuan and Yunnan had stable production, and some Xinjiang silicon plants had plans to increase production later [6] - **Situation**: The short - and medium - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the medium - long - term outlook is for bottom - range oscillation [6] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The futures price oscillated this week, and the basis started to strengthen slightly [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The current spot supply is sufficient, and downstream restocking during the peak season is good. The core contradiction is the supply - side compliance disturbance in the context of over - capacity [8] - **Inventory**: The monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction, but the reduction amplitude is small compared to the existing inventory [8] - **Price Outlook**: Before the supply - side disturbance materializes, the price has strong downward support during the peak season [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views of TL2512 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - The main varieties TL, T, TF, TS have an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and a reference view of "oscillation". In the short term, the upward and downward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, and they are expected to be in low - level oscillation. In the long run, there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, and there is support below the treasury bond futures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Views Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is the co - existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations and low short - term comprehensive interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back. In the short term, the necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is insufficient, so the downward space of market interest rates is limited, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. The rebound momentum from late August to early September has weakened, and market interest rates have gradually recovered. - In the long run, monetary policy is supportive, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, so there is support below treasury bond futures. - Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has declined, and the stock market has entered an oscillatory adjustment. The siphoning effect of the equity market on bond market funds has weakened. - The latest inflation data shows a month - on - month stabilization but is still weak overall. Subsequent policy will continue to introduce demand - stabilizing policies, with fiscal policy as the main means. There may be some pressure on the supply side of treasury bonds in the fourth quarter [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report on September 11, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Copper - **Market Performance**: LME copper rose 0.96% to $10012/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton. The US PPI data was weaker than expected, and the US bond yield declined, leading to the rise of copper prices [2] - **Industry Situation**: LME copper inventory decreased by 225 to 155050 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 14.0% and a Cash/3M discount of $56/ton. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 19,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased and the procurement volume increased. The import of SHFE copper was slightly in the red, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1620 yuan/ton, and the supply - demand of recycled copper was affected by policy adjustments [2] - **Price Outlook**: The market is hesitating between recession and interest - rate cut trading. If recession trading comes first, the attitude at the actual interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish. Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and domestic copper production declines marginally. Although current consumption is weak, copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 79500 - 80800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9900 - 10100 dollars/ton [2] Group 3: Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. LME aluminum fell 0.21% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20830 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.7 to 542,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly increased to 65,000 tons [4] - **Industry Situation**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 473,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 85,500 tons. The aluminum bar processing fee rebounded, but the market trading was average. The spot in East China was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the futures, and the discount widened. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 22.7%, with a Cash/3M premium of $2.92/ton [4] - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are in a game between macro - expectations and fundamental realities. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provide support, but the weak improvement in domestic terminal demand restricts the upside. The key is to focus on the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory trends. If inventory turns, aluminum prices may rise further. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20700 - 20960 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2600 - 2650 dollars/ton [4] Group 4: Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.74% to 16804 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $15 to $1977/ton [5] - **Industry Situation**: The lead industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries is tight, restricting the smelter's production. The continuous losses of secondary lead have led to production cuts in Anhui. Downstream consumption is weaker than in previous years, and dealers' finished - product inventory is at a historical high [5] - **Price Outlook**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally narrowing, providing some support. However, if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting recovers, lead prices still face significant downside risks [5] Group 5: Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.34% to 22211 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $13.5 to $2871/ton [7] - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore and zinc ingots remain in surplus, with inventory accumulation. The TC of zinc concentrates is rising, and the domestic supply is loose. The downstream enterprise's operating rate has not improved significantly. After long - term destocking in the LME market, the LME zinc warrant is at a low level, and the LME zinc monthly spread has increased. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets is intensifying, and the SHFE - LME ratio is accelerating downward [7] - **Price Outlook**: Some institutional and foreign - capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with high consensus on shorting. It is expected to show a low - level oscillating pattern with limited short - term downside [7] Group 6: Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is slow. Yunnan is still facing a severe shortage of tin mines, with smelters' raw - material inventory generally less than 30 days and a low operating rate. Some smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in September is expected to decline by 29.89% month - on - month [8] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak traditional consumption areas. Although AI computing power has increased some tin demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The off - season demand is weak, but the short - term supply decline is significant. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Group 7: Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices oscillated. The US PPI data cooled unexpectedly, and the US dollar index initially fell and then recovered [10] - **Industry Situation**: The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved but is still low. The stainless - steel plants' production in August and September is expected to increase, supporting the nickel - iron price. The supply of intermediate products is short, and the demand from some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers provides price support [10] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive non - ferrous metals, including nickel, to strengthen. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract this week is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The Wukuang Steel Union's lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) fell 2.73% to 71,237 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 70,720 yuan, down 2.99% [12] - **Industry Situation**: The resumption of the Jiaxiaowo mine may reverse the supply - demand repair expectation, suppressing lithium prices. In September, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue destocking [12] - **Price Outlook**: The spot strength may support the bottom. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 68,600 - 72,500 yuan/ton [12] Group 9: Alumina - **Market Performance**: On September 10, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.14% to 2934 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 0.4 to 391,000 lots [14] - **Industry Situation**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10 to 3020 yuan/ton, with a premium of 105 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $337/ton, and the import window is open. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78 to 121,900 tons [14] - **Price Outlook**: Overseas ore supply is improving, and the over - capacity in the smelting segment is difficult to change in the short term. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton [14] Group 10: Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 2037 to 285,900 lots [17] - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable. The raw - material prices also remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 2.71%, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.09% [17] - **Market Outlook**: The stainless - steel spot market is oscillating narrowly, with price differentiation. The 304 cold - rolled price is stable with light trading, while the 304 hot - rolled price has increased slightly due to tight supply [17] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.22% to 20350 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position increased by 0.23 to 11,700 lots [19] - **Industry Situation**: The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost is strongly supported by the increased supply disturbance of domestic and overseas scrap aluminum. The exchange has lowered the margin ratio, increasing market activity [19] - **Price Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term [19] Group 12: Data Summary - The report also provides daily data on non - ferrous metals, including LME and SHFE inventory, inventory changes, warrant cancellation ratio, cash - 3M spread, SHFE position, position changes, spot premium, and import - export data [22]