固定收益 | 动态跟踪 资金难收紧，债市难大涨 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 | △ * = li | | --- | 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 债市难以复刻 2020 年末行情：固定收益市 | ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with market focus shifting to the voting distribution and the "dot plot" for future policy direction [1][2][3] - The potential for dissenting votes within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will indicate internal divisions regarding monetary policy [2] - The economic outlook, inflation risks, and policy flexibility will be critical points in Chairman Powell's upcoming press conference, influencing perceptions of whether the rate cut marks the beginning of a preventive easing cycle or a temporary policy adjustment [2][6] Group 2 - Recent economic data, including ADP employment figures and the PCE price index, strongly support the likelihood of a December rate cut, but future rate cut expectations remain uncertain [3][4] - The U.S. inflation rate is still above the Fed's 2% target, with the September PCE index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [4] - Consumer spending has shown signs of stagnation, with real disposable income remaining flat for two consecutive months, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming release of delayed employment, spending, and price data is expected to show rising unemployment and weak consumer spending, which could influence the Fed's policy decisions [5][6] - The labor market is showing signs of fatigue, but the prevailing view within the Fed is that this is a temporary dynamic rather than a fundamental decline in overall demand [6] - The Fed's future policy path will depend heavily on economic data, aiming to balance economic growth support with inflation risk management [6][7] Group 4 - The potential nomination of a new Fed chair, particularly a dovish candidate like Hassett, could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy stance, but any significant policy shifts will require broad consensus within the FOMC [8][9] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 are limited, with only about two cuts anticipated following the December reduction [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to enhance demand, optimize supply, and achieve a balanced economic structure, aiming for a good start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The meeting highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand and stimulating effective investment to address the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand in the Chinese economy [1][2] - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.0%, reflecting a slight downward adjustment from the previous year's target, while still maintaining a medium to high growth level [2] Group 2 - The meeting stresses the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and growth, with an emphasis on integrating stock and incremental policies [2][3] - The fiscal deficit rate is suggested to increase to 4.5% to 5% in 2026, with a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan, to create incremental demand and adjust the economic structure [5] - The analysis indicates that approximately 7.4 trillion yuan in incremental fiscal funds will be needed to support the targeted 5% economic growth in 2026, with specific allocations for special bonds and local government debt [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a shift in the macroeconomic policy tone, maintaining a positive stance while introducing new terms such as "increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts" [2][3] - The report indicates that fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be "more proactive" and "moderately loose," with specific policy measures to be clarified in future central economic work meetings [2][3] - The prioritization of risk mitigation has been moved to the last item in the agenda, suggesting that the current overall risk is relatively controllable, and future efforts will focus on "active and prudent" risk resolution [2][3] Group 2 - The report notes that the phrase "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" was not reiterated in the latest meeting, indicating a potential shift in focus towards broader economic stability rather than specific market interventions [2][3] - It suggests that the capital market's performance in the coming year will depend on further detailed arrangements from the upcoming central economic work meeting, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook [2][3] - Historical data indicates that December has historically favored large-cap stocks, which may be relevant for investment strategies moving forward [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to address the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand in China's economy by expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and stimulating effective investment demand, while also optimizing and expanding effective supply through innovation to achieve structural balance in supply and demand [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Growth Targets - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 discussed the economic work for 2026, proposing a more proactive macro policy to enhance the forward-looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of policies, aiming to maintain social stability and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the GDP growth target for 2026 will be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, a slight decrease from the 2025 target of around 5.0%, reflecting a focus on high-quality development and maintaining necessary policy space [3][4]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of achieving qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, with a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Investment - The article suggests that the fiscal deficit rate for 2026 should be raised to 4.5% to 5%, with a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan, to support an estimated 7.4 trillion yuan in incremental fiscal funding needed for a 5% growth target [7]. - It is proposed that special bonds remain at 1.8 trillion yuan, with local special bond quotas slightly increasing to 5.1 trillion yuan to support infrastructure projects and debt clearance [7][8]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to reflect a "one flat three rises" approach, maintaining the fiscal deficit rate while increasing the scale of special bonds and quasi-fiscal policy tools [8]. Group 3: Economic Environment and Structural Adjustments - The article notes that China has transitioned from an incremental growth phase to one focused on existing stock, necessitating structural adjustments and the enhancement of technological innovation to achieve high-quality growth [3][4]. - The need for significant project investments in the early part of 2026 is emphasized, particularly in light of internal pressures such as aging and external challenges like geopolitical tensions and industrial chain restructuring [6].

据新华社报道，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议对当前经济形势作 出判断，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风 险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争， 更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性。 中泰证券（600918）研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅告诉记者，"前瞻性"是指，对于经济运行后续可能 面临的问题、暴露的风险，宏观政策会提前谋划、提前应对，尽可能熨平经济运行可能面临的风险隐 患。"针对性"是指，对于重点任务、重点问题、重点风险，宏观政策会采取针对性手段予以处置。"协 同性"是指，政策实施过程中将更加注重形成各个部门、各个层级之间的合力。 对于"继续实施更加积极的财政政策"，粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉记者，这既是延续政策稳定性 的需要，更是当前扩大需求的需要。为进一步扩大内需、提振消费、稳定房地产市场，有必要以更大力 度的财政政策来稳定经济和社会就业，为新旧动能转换赢得更多的时间。 ...

12月8日，美国财政部长贝森特预计，尽管经历了长时间的政府关门，美国今年仍将实现3%的实际GDP 增速。这一预测显示白宫对经济前景保持乐观，尽管消费者信心和通胀压力仍是市场关注焦点。贝森特 周日接受CBS《面对国家》节目采访时表示，今年假日购物季表现"非常强劲"，经济状况好于预期。他 预计明年通胀将"大幅回落"，并指出债券市场"刚刚经历了2020年以来最好的一年"。这一表态与消费者 情绪形成对比。密歇根大学12月消费者信心指数为53.3，较去年同期下降28%。近期民调显示，约三分 之二的注册选民认为特朗普政府在经济和生活成本问题上表现不及预期。贝森特将消费者对负担能力的 担忧归咎于媒体报道的影响，并称政府正在处理拜登政府留下的通胀问题，他表示明年美国将"迈向繁 荣"。 另外，上周五公布的数据显示，加拿大11月新增就业人数5.36万，为连续第三个月录得意外强劲的就业 增长。加拿大统计局的劳动力调查显示，失业率上月降至6.5%，为2024年7月以来最低水平，并低于10 月的6.9%。接受调查的经济学家预计就业将减少2500，失业率将小幅升至7%。11月的就业增长主要由 兼职岗位和私营部门带动。医疗保健和社会援助行 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 12 月政治局会议解读 提质增效，内需主导 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 会议： 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共 ...

Economic Confidence Index - The "Economic Confidence Index" for December 2025 is reported at 50, slightly lower than the previous month, indicating a weak recovery in the economy [6][8]. Inflation Predictions - Economists predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 to be 0.72%, up from 0.2% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.05% [9][10]. Retail Sales Growth - The forecast for the year-on-year growth of social retail sales in November is 3.09%, slightly higher than the previous month's 2.9%, driven by the "Double 11" shopping festival and a recovery in the dining sector [10][11]. Industrial Value Added - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial value added in November is 5.0%, an increase from the previous month's 4.9% [11]. Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7%, indicating continued pressure from the real estate market [12][14]. Real Estate Investment - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for real estate development investment in November is -15.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus for November is reported at $111.68 billion, with exports growing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9%, aligning with economists' expectations [15]. New Loans - Economists forecast new loans for November to rebound to 679.1 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 220 billion yuan [16]. Total Social Financing - The predicted total social financing for November is 2.32 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous month's 0.81 trillion yuan [17]. M2 Growth Rate - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in November is 8.29%, slightly above the previous month's 8.2% [18]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists expect the possibility of adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and reserve requirement ratios to be low in the near term, with a continued focus on maintaining liquidity in the market [20]. Exchange Rate Predictions - The predicted exchange rate for the Chinese yuan against the US dollar at the end of 2025 is 7.07, with expectations of a potential adjustment to 6.98 by mid-2026 [21]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves are reported at $33,464 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [22][23].

美联储肩负着制定美国货币政策的使命，核心目标是实现充分就业与物价稳定。在理想状态下，美国失 业率应处于历史低位，通胀率则不超过2%这一央行长期目标。但美国经济很少能处于这种理想状态。 美联储主席鲍威尔与联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的其他11位成员拥有多种"政策工具"，可通过调控影 响美国经济，以实现预期目标。其中最广为人知的操作就是调整联邦基金利率——此举直接影响借贷成 本，并可能间接传导至抵押贷款利率。 智通财经APP获悉，一个多世纪以来，股市一直是创造财富的核心渠道。尽管债券、大宗商品、房地产 等其他资产类别长期来看均实现了价值增长，但就长期年化回报率而言，尚无任何资产能与股市相媲 美。 2025年正是投资者耐心获得丰厚回报的绝佳例证。截至12月5日收盘，历史悠久的道琼斯工业平均指 数、基准标普500指数与创新驱动的纳斯达克综合指数自2025年初以来已分别上涨13%、17%和22%。 然而，这样的盛况在2026年可能难以重现。 尽管始终存在各种不利因素可能拖累华尔街主要指数，但某些潜在风险尤为罕见。随着2025年即将落 幕，2026年的大幕徐徐拉开，华尔街面临的最大威胁可能恰恰来自其历史稳定力量之一—— ...