Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors support the upward movement of A-shares. The collective rebound of the three official PMI indexes in December implies signs of economic recovery. The overall macro - atmosphere of the market is warm, and A - shares have strong bottom support. The weak US economic data has a negative impact on the US dollar value. Although the US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate has risen today, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel, and the strengthening exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in the first quarter. Also, due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year, the A - share Spring market is significantly advanced as the market starts to trade the policy expectations of the Two Sessions in early March in advance [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: IF (2603) is at 4753.0, down 18.0; IH (2603) is at 3143.8, down 10.8; IC (2603) is at 7802.6, up 40.4; IM (2603) is at 7760.2, up 22.0. The corresponding prices of the second - tier contracts also show different trends [2] - **Price Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1628.4, down 8.2; IC - IF spread is 3096.8, up 56.2; etc. The spreads between different contracts have different changes [2] - **Seasonal Spreads**: IF when - season - current month is - 19.8, down 2.4; IH when - season - current month is - 0.6, down 3.6; etc. The seasonal spreads of different contracts also change [2] - **Net Positions**: IF top 20 net positions are - 29,517.00, down 932.0; IH top 20 net positions are - 14,688.00, up 42.0; IC top 20 net positions are - 28,871.00, down 1714.0; IM top 20 net positions are - 46,097.00, down 2225.0 [2] Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is at 4776.67, down 14.0; the Shanghai 50 is at 3145.1, down 13.6; the CSI 500 is at 7875.1, up 61.0; the CSI 1000 is at 7906.4, up 41.5 [2] - **Basis**: IF main contract basis is - 23.7, down 11.0; IH main contract basis is - 1.3, down 4.4; IC main contract basis is - 72.5, down 44.7; IM main contract basis is - 146.2, down 43.7 [2] Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume is 28,815.66 billion yuan, up 492.88 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 25,799.00 billion yuan, up 192.52 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume is 3185.91 billion yuan, up 226.86 billion yuan [2] - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks is 39.64%, down 35.48%; Shibor is 1.266%, up 0.003%; IO at - the - money call option closing price is 38.80, down 13.80; IO at - the - money put option closing price is 62.20, up 5.60; etc. [2] Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - **Overall A - shares**: The score is 5.00, down 2.50; the technical aspect score is 4.00, down 3.50; the capital aspect score is 6.10, down 1.40 [2] Industry News - **PMI Data**: China's official manufacturing PMI in December is 50.1, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points; comprehensive PMI output index is 50.7%, up 1.0 percentage point. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 drops from 48.2 to 47.9, hitting a new low since October 2024 [2] - **Policy**: The People's Bank of China deploys key work for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, improving the structural monetary policy tool system, and the financial market monitoring index system [2] Market Performance - **Index Performance**: A - share major indexes close generally higher. The Shanghai Composite Index hits a new high with 14 consecutive positive daily lines. The ChiNext Index rises 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index rises 0.06%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rises 0.05%. The CSI 500 performs the strongest. Industry sectors show mixed performance, with comprehensive and coal sectors strengthening significantly and the petroleum and petrochemical sector leading the decline [2] Key Data to Follow - 1/7 21:15: US December ADP employment; 23:00: US November JOLTs job openings - 1/8 20:30: US December Challenger corporate layoff numbers - 1/9 9:30: China's December CPI and PPI; 21:30: US December non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively rose, with nickel closing at a limit-up of 8%, reaching 147,720 yuan/ton, the highest since June 2024 [1] - Tin increased by 5.33%, while aluminum and lead both rose over 1%, with aluminum up 1.18% and lead up 1.83% [1] - Alumina and casting aluminum also saw gains, with alumina rising by 4.97% and casting aluminum by 0.7% [1] - Lithium carbonate increased by 4.54%, and industrial silicon rose by 1.07%, while polysilicon fell by 2.13% [1] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel rose by 4.99%, iron ore by 4.09%, rebar by 2.87%, and hot-rolled coil by 2.52% [1] - Coking coal and coke both hit limit-up with a rise of 7.98%, priced at 1,164 yuan/ton and 1,773 yuan/ton respectively [1] - As of 15:07, foreign base metals showed mixed results, with London nickel's growth narrowing to 0.14% and copper down by 0.98% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold down by 0.93% and silver down by 2.96%, while domestic gold fell by 0.17% and silver rose by 2.07% [1][2] Macro Environment - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 5,002 billion yuan through reverse repos, with a 7-day reverse repo operation of 286 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40% [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.09% to 98.51, amid mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy [6] - Upcoming economic data releases include China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves for December, as well as various US economic indicators [7] Oil Market - As of 15:07, both US and Brent crude oil prices fell, with US oil down by 1.58% and Brent by 1.2% [8] - Morgan Stanley analysts estimate a potential oversupply in the oil market of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 due to weak demand growth and increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC countries [8] - API reported a decrease in US crude oil inventories by 2.77 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [8]

【博时市场点评1月7日】沪指十四连阳，成交继续放量 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数继续上涨，沪指收获十四连阳。两市成交较昨日继续放量至2.88万亿，资金情绪较 为活跃。2026年央行工作会议1月5日-6日召开，会议强调，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政 策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。从全年的重点工作部署看，总体与去年保持一 致，均为七项重点工作，且排序保持一致，但对重点工作的布置更细致、更全面。扩大内需、优化供给 成为今年货币政策的重要着力点；总体要求方面，强调为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运 行营造良好的货币金融环境，相比去年，金融市场的稳定运行被纳入考量。往后看，当前经济仍处于弱 修复状态，在财政政策靠前发力的情况下，货币政策或积极配合，降准和结构性降息或值得期待。 消息面 2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日至6日召开。会议部署了七项年度重点工作，首要任务是继续 实施好适度宽松的货币政策。会议明确将把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为重要考量，灵活运 用降准降息等多种工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松。会议还提出将建立在特定情景下向 非银机构提供流动性的机制 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The current monetary policy outlook is in a "delicate balance" due to rising unemployment and persistent high inflation, as stated by Barkin, the President of the Richmond Federal Reserve [1][6] - After a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points last year, interest rates are now estimated to be within the neutral rate range, which neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth [1][6] - Future policy will require careful balancing between the dual mandates of full employment and controlling inflation, with expectations of clearer economic data in the coming months [1][6] Group 2: Economic Growth Predictions - Barkin anticipates that tax cuts and regulatory easing could provide momentum for economic growth this year [1][6] - The Fed's rate cuts last year are likened to "buying insurance" for the economy, indicating a proactive approach to economic stability [1][6] Group 3: Gold Price Forecast - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will rise to $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, surpassing last year's historical high, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Fed leadership, and continued buying by central banks and funds [1][6] - The recent events in Venezuela may attract more investors to gold for safety, although this factor is not a core basis for the $4,800 target [1][6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 increased by 2.0% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 2.6% increase in November and below the market expectation of 2.2% [1][6] - This unexpected slowdown brings Germany's inflation rate back to the European Central Bank's (ECB) target level of 2% for the first time since June 2025 [1][6] - Economists expect the Eurozone's December CPI year-on-year growth to also fall to the 2% target [1][6] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Analysts indicate that a single month's data is insufficient to prompt the ECB to adjust its current monetary policy stance [1][6] - The ECB's recent forecasts suggest that inflation rates will be slightly below the 2% target in 2026 and 2027, with policymakers expressing confidence in progress against inflation while remaining cautious of potential risks [1][6] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that more aggressive interest rate cuts may be necessary this year to sustain economic growth, suggesting a potential reduction exceeding 100 basis points [7] Group 3: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index experienced slight gains, trading around 98.50, supported by reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions [9] - The euro declined slightly, trading around 1.1700, pressured by the stronger dollar and weak economic data from Germany [10] - The British pound also faced downward pressure, trading near 1.3510, influenced by profit-taking and weak economic indicators from the UK [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Korea may remove the option for interest rate cuts from its policy list as early as April [1] - The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% during the policy meeting on January 15, indicating a shift towards a prolonged wait-and-see strategy while still keeping the option for rate cuts [1] - Concerns regarding financial stability, particularly the depreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar, may be expressed by the Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong during the upcoming meeting, while ruling out the possibility of rate hikes in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - Citigroup predicts that the Bank of Korea will not raise interest rates until at least 2026 [1]

汇丰银行环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶表示，新型政策性金融工具或将继续发挥"准财政"工 具的作用，2026年或仍有继续降息20个基点的空间，并可能降准50个基点。 中新社北京1月7日电 (陶思阅)2026年中国人民银行工作会议近日召开，会议释放了一系列政策信号。中 国央行表示，2026年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体 经济高质量发展质效。 围绕货币政策，会议作出一系列部署：把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导 金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目 标相匹配。 在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来，2026年中国央行或主要通过下调政策利率、结构性货币政策工具 利率和个人住房公积金贷款利率，来引导企业和居民贷款利率下行。 这意味着2026年居民房贷利率、消费贷利率和经营贷利率都有下调空间，政府和企业债券融资成本也会 跟进下调。王青预计，2026年中国央行或将降息两次，降息幅度在20至30个基点。 高盛近期的报 ...

2026年中国人民银行工作会议近日召开，会议释放了一系列政策信号。中国央行表示，2026年继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效。 本次会议重申"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，加之中国央行致力于构建科学稳健的货币政策体系，分 析人士认为，这都意味着2026年货币政策不会大放大收。 在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来，2026年中国央行或主要通过下调政策利率、结构性货币政策工具 利率和个人住房公积金贷款利率，来引导企业和居民贷款利率下行。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 这意味着2026年居民房贷利率、消费贷利率和经营贷利率都有下调空间，政府和企业债券融资成本也会 跟进下调。王青预计，2026年中国央行或将降息两次，降息幅度在20至30个基点。 在数量型货币政策方面，2026年中国央行或将主要依靠中期借贷便利(MLF)和买断式逆回购向市场注入 中期流动性，同时结合国债买卖和降准向市场注入长期流动性。"当前数量型宽松政策工具丰富，我们 判断2026年央行可能降准1至2次，幅度为0.5至1个百分点。"王青说。 围绕货币政策，会议作出一系列部署：把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回 ...

高盛近期的报告认为，2026年中国央行可能进行两次10个基点的降息。 中新社北京1月7日电 (陶思阅)2026年中国人民银行工作会议近日召开，会议释放了一系列政策信号。中 国央行表示，2026年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体 经济高质量发展质效。 围绕货币政策，会议作出一系列部署：把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导 金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目 标相匹配。 在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来，2026年中国央行或主要通过下调政策利率、结构性货币政策工具 利率和个人住房公积金贷款利率，来引导企业和居民贷款利率下行。 这意味着2026年居民房贷利率、消费贷利率和经营贷利率都有下调空间，政府和企业债券融资成本也会 跟进下调。王青预计，2026年中国央行或将降息两次，降息幅度在20至30个基点。 汇丰银行环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶表示，新型政策性金融工具或将继续发挥"准财政"工 具的作用，2026 ...

Group 1 - The core value of central bank meeting minutes lies in revealing policymakers' assessments of economic growth, inflation levels, and employment markets, which directly influence market expectations regarding interest rate trends, a key driver of exchange rate pricing [1] - If the minutes indicate hawkish signals such as "high inflation pressure" or "need to tighten monetary policy further," it suggests a high probability of interest rate hikes, attracting international capital inflow and leading to currency appreciation [2] - Conversely, if the minutes emphasize weak economic growth or that inflation has returned to target levels, it signals potential interest rate cuts or increased monetary easing, reducing the attractiveness of domestic assets and suppressing currency value [4] Group 2 - The minutes also reveal policy disagreements among committee members, which can lead to short-term volatility in exchange rates; a consensus among members leads to stable market expectations, while significant disagreement increases uncertainty and volatility [6] - If the minutes indicate a close vote between rate hike proponents and those favoring cuts, it may result in significant fluctuations in exchange rates until new economic data or policy signals clarify the direction [6] - The market's understanding of the central bank's policy response function, influenced by the minutes, affects exchange rate pricing; for instance, if inflation data is highlighted as a core adjustment indicator, subsequent inflation releases will become critical for exchange rate movements [7] Group 3 - The impact of the meeting minutes on exchange rates also depends on the deviation from market expectations; if the content aligns with prior expectations, the effect is limited, but unexpected hawkish or dovish signals can lead to significant exchange rate movements [9] - Meeting minutes from major central banks like the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank have a more pronounced effect on global exchange rates compared to those from smaller economies [9]