Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner. Brazil's cotton planting in 2024 has ended, with a total output of 3.7 million tons and an expected output of 3.95 million tons in 2025, which exerts pressure on foreign cotton. The US trade war and inflation issues, along with China's deflation problem, may impact global cotton consumption. If the situation deteriorates, cotton prices may weaken further in the long - term; if the two countries reach an agreement, the situation may reverse [1]. - PTA is likely to have a short - term rebound. The suspension of tariff issues eases concerns about trade disputes, and there are issues in the Middle East and limited US crude oil production, so oil prices may rise before May Day. Supply - side maintenance and production cuts, along with good downstream polyester开工, lead to a tight market supply and a rise in spot basis [1]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. International crude oil prices are stabilizing, providing cost support. However, due to macro - environmental factors, bullish confidence is insufficient, and prices are expected to be under pressure [2][3]. - Short - fiber is rebounding from a low level. The strengthening of raw material prices and the easing of macro - sentiment support a short - term rebound, but poor terminal orders mean the long - term weakness is difficult to change [4]. - Sugar is in a volatile adjustment. In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but there are expectations of increased production in Brazil's new season. In the domestic market, current inventory supports prices, but future supply pressure may limit the upside of futures prices [5]. - Apples are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Near the May Day holiday, cold - storage shipments are accelerating, inventory is at a five - year low, and prices are rising. However, attention should be paid to the new - season apple's fruit - setting situation and macro - risks [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Key Information - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy and promote high - quality development, including measures in employment support, foreign trade stability, consumption promotion, effective investment expansion, and creating a good development environment [7]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of April 28, the PTA spot price rose to 4,570 yuan/ton. Before the end of April, the offer for main - port delivery and warehouse receipts was around a premium of 15 or a discount of 2 to 05. In May, the main - port delivery for 09 had a premium of 80 - 140 in transactions. The industry's supply - demand and cost support are good, but the basis weakened in the afternoon [9]. - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate in China reached 80.04%, a significant increase compared to the previous week and the same period last year. Some devices restarted as scheduled [11]. Cotton - On April 28, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14,244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. On April 28, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 12,439 (- 54) sheets [10]. - In March 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the inventory increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased [10]. - Recently, the cotton - growing areas in Argentina have generally cleared up. The picking progress in some main - producing areas is around 24% - 30%, and some areas have started processing, with centralized processing expected to begin in mid - May [10]. Ethylene Glycol - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 61.93%, with a slight decrease. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased, while that of coal - to - ethylene glycol increased [15]. - China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 549,700 tons, a slight increase. There were both maintenance and restart of devices, and demand in other industries declined slightly [15]. Short - fiber - As of the 24th, the weekly short - fiber production in China was 161,400 tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate increased [15]. - As of the 24th, the average polymerization cost of polyester short - fiber decreased slightly, and the industry's cash flow decreased significantly, with profits shrinking [15]. Sugar - An Indian industry insider expects the country's sugar exports in the 2024/25 season to be 60 - 700,000 tons, lower than the allowed amount [15]. - As of the week of April 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased [15]. - It is expected that in 2025, the sugar - beet planting area in Ukraine will decrease by 17% compared to 2024, leading to a significant decline in production and exports [15]. Apple - As of April 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas in China was 3.0998 million tons, a decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a near - five - year low [16]. - In Shandong and Shaanxi apple - producing areas, different grades of apple prices are provided [16].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of soybean arrivals in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but trade - related factors may suppress the prices of soy - based products [3]. - The valuation of short - term US soybeans is low, and the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to be stable with a mid - term upward trend. Domestic spot soybean meal is likely to decline, while far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The valuation of oils and fats may be suppressed by the decline of the crude oil center. If palm oil production recovers significantly, oils and fats will be bearish. However, mid - term factors may support the market [9]. - Short - term sugar prices are volatile, with a tendency to be strong in the short - term but showing signs of weakness in the price structure [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, presenting a pattern of weak supply and demand [15]. - Egg prices may be stable in some areas and have a slight downward risk in others. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then sell short [17]. - The short - term fluctuation of hog prices is limited, and it is advisable to short after the short - term rebound of futures and spot prices [19]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Monday, domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped significantly. The lowest national quotation remained at a high level of 3,400 yuan/ton. The estimated soybean arrivals in the next three months are 9.1975 million tons in May, 11 million tons in June, and 10.5 million tons in July. The inventory of soybean meal and soybeans is expected to increase. The current inventory of soybean meal has dropped to a low level of 74,800 tons, and downstream buyers are still cautious. The trading volume of soybean meal today is 14,800 tons, the current opening rate is 43.98%, and the expected opening rate of soybean oil mills this week is 41.3%, with a planned crushing volume of 1.4693 million tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost range of the 05 soybean meal contract is 2,750 - 2,850 yuan/ton, and that of far - month contracts such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Short - term US soybeans are under pressure due to the trade war, but are strongly supported. The cost of soybean arrivals is expected to be stable and has a mid - term upward trend. Domestic spot soybean meal is likely to decline, while far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: The exports of Malaysian palm oil in April are expected to increase. The production of Malaysian palm oil has recovered both year - on - year and month - on - month. The industry association in the US has requested a significant increase in RVO, which is beneficial to the demand for US soybean oil. The domestic spot basis is fluctuating [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The decline of the crude oil center will significantly suppress the valuation of oils and fats. If palm oil production recovers significantly, oils and fats will be bearish. In the short - term, the rebound of oils and fats may be weak, but mid - term factors may support the market [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated strongly. The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different trends. The estimated sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of April decreased by 3.8% year - on - year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although Brazil has entered the new sugar - crushing season, the shipping volume is still low, and the price difference between raw and white sugar remains high, which is not bearish for raw sugar. In China, short - term sugar prices are strong, but there are signs of weakness in the price structure. Overall, short - term sugar prices are volatile [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot price of cotton increased slightly, and the enthusiasm of cotton farmers for planting this year has increased [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The news of potential tariff reduction has a limited impact on domestic cotton prices. The domestic cotton market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg prices are stable or declining. The supply is sufficient, the market demand is tepid, and there is a risk of a slight decline in egg prices in some areas [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the previous rebound of egg prices, the support is insufficient, and the supply may increase again. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then sell short [17]. Hog - **Spot Information**: The domestic hog prices mainly declined yesterday, with partial increases. The supply in the northern market may decrease, and the prices may be strong; the southern market is in a stalemate between supply and demand, and the prices are stable [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term fluctuation of hog prices is limited, and the pressure is accumulating. It is advisable to short after the short - term rebound of futures and spot prices [19].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 8 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1]. - The soybean meal may oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The corn futures price will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and investors are advised to operate cautiously as the May Day holiday approaches [1]. - The copper price has rebounded to a key price zone, and investors should pay attention to risk avoidance due to the upcoming May Day holiday [2]. - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3][4]. - After the macro - negative factors are digested, a bullish approach can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5]. - The coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at low levels with limited upside space [6][7]. - The iron ore 2505 will mainly decline with oscillations in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [8]. - The WTI crude oil may have a downward price center in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 65 US dollars per barrel for the WTI main contract [9]. - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10]. - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to the weak demand [11]. - The soda ash futures may have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,140 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the period of US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3,450 yuan/ton (- 200), 3,580 yuan/ton (- 170), 3,650 yuan/ton (- 50), and 3,690 yuan/ton (- 10) respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved. US soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Brazilian soybeans are arriving in China, and the supply is expected to be loose. The inventory has dropped to a low point due to the mismatch between pre - May Day stocking and oil mill operations [1]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai regions are 2,128 yuan/ton, 2,333 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton and 2,200 - 2,220 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the US tariff event on the outer market is weakening. The USDA report has lowered the US corn production and ending inventory, and the weakening US dollar index supports the upward trend of US corn. In China, the supply pressure has eased, but the downstream demand is weak, which restricts the rise of corn futures prices [1]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,440 - 77,690 yuan, down 580 yuan, with a premium of 150 - 210 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.52, down 7.81 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, and the Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material impact is intensifying, and the copper price is at a stage of resonance [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 69,400 (- 200) yuan/ton and 67,900 (- 200) yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate is declining. The supply is increasing but at a slower pace, and the low - cost lithium salt from salt lakes may enter the market. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has been accumulating [3]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the contango structure is weakening. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand from steel mills is weak, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is low, and the profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [6][7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts iron ore index is 99.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 763 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is mixed, with Australian shipments decreasing and Brazilian shipments increasing. The port inventory has decreased, and the demand from domestic steel mills has increased but the procurement is still cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the US tariff policy restricts the upward space [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The market sentiment has improved, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC+ has announced compensation production cuts, but the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" still exists. OPEC has lowered the global demand growth forecast, and the second - quarter demand may be affected by the trade war [9]. Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has affected China's tire and automobile exports. The domestic and Southeast Asian rubber supply is abundant, and the demand may be suppressed by the US tariff on automobiles [10]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The PVC production enterprise operating rate has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [11]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,418.44 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash production is relatively stable, the output has little fluctuation, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is average. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is still weak [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend - strength ratings for individual commodities: - PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, PP, methanol, urea, LPG, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, short - fiber, and bottle - chip trend strengths are rated 0 (neutral) [10][11][13][17][20][21][30][39][56][60][64][74][80][87][89][91] - LLDPE,烧碱,苯乙烯, PVC trend strengths are rated - 1 (weakly bearish) [35][46][65][85] - 纯碱 trend strength is rated 1 (weakly bullish) [72] 2. Report's Core View - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical commodities, including market fundamentals, price trends, and trading strategies. It considers factors such as supply - demand relationships, plant maintenance, trade policies, and cost changes to evaluate the short - and medium - term trends of each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Low processing fees lead to more overseas plant maintenance, and Asian PX operating rate drops to 68.6%. May is a de - stocking period, and new plants are expected to be put into operation in June, with processing fees likely to expand. Strategy: long PX short SC [10] - **PTA**: Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Sino - US tariff easing improves terminal demand expectations, and polyester sales improve. However, PTA and PX plant maintenance is concentrated, and the basis and spread are at a high level. Strategy: long PTA short MEG, avoid chasing the basis and spread [11] - **MEG**: Long PTA short MEG. The number of warehouse receipts is small, and there may be a positive spread arbitrage in the delivery month. Pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread for the far - month contracts [11] Rubber - It is expected to trade sideways. The trading volume and open interest of rubber futures decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. The supply and demand fundamentals are relatively stable [12][13][14][15] Synthetic Rubber - It will oscillate in a pattern with limited drivers. The cost of butadiene is expected to support the price, and the supply of butadiene is expected to increase. The demand for synthetic rubber has increased, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The current fundamentals have a neutral impact on synthetic rubber [17][18][20] Asphalt - De - stocking continues, and crude oil prices decline slightly. The weekly production of domestic asphalt decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased. The trend is neutral [21][30][31] LLDPE - Short - term oscillation, long - term pressure. Trade wars and new capacity additions bring supply - demand imbalances, and the demand for downstream products is weak. Strategy: bearish on polyethylene profit [32][33][34] PP - Prices oscillate, and trading volume is average. The increase in PP futures has a limited impact on the spot market, and downstream pre - holiday stocking has ended. The trend is neutral [38][39] 烧碱 - The medium - term trend is weak. Trade wars and seasonal factors affect demand, and the supply side has high operating rates. Strategy: short 06 and 07 contracts, 6 - 9 reverse spread [41][43][44] Paper Pulp - It is expected to oscillate weakly. The price of paper pulp futures decreased, and the market is divided. The port inventory is high, and the market sentiment is bearish. Strategy: pay attention to port de - stocking and South American policies [47][48][49] Logs - Weakly oscillate. The trading volume and open interest of log futures decreased, and the expected arrival of coniferous logs decreased. The trend is neutral [51][53][55] Methanol - Oscillate. The spot price of methanol is weak, and the port inventory decreased last week. Geopolitical issues and MTO operating rates affect the medium - term trend [56][57][59] Urea - Factories promote sales before the holiday, and trading volume improves. Pay attention to the sustainability of the improvement. The inventory of urea enterprises increased, and the futures price rebounded after the spot price stabilized [62][63][64] Styrene - Weakly oscillate. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand decreases. The downstream demand for styrene has resilience, but the terminal default risk is increasing [65][66][69] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The operation of soda ash plants is stable, and downstream demand is stable. The market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [70][72] LPG - As the delivery approaches, the structure continues to strengthen. The prices of LPG futures increased, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased. The trend is neutral [74][80][81] PVC - Weakly oscillate. The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is limited. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short term [84][85] Fuel Oil - Weakly oscillate, and short - term fluctuations narrow. Low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil in the short term, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils rebounds slightly [87] Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Short - fiber and bottle - chip are expected to rebound following raw materials. For bottle - chip, short the processing fees on rallies. The trading volume of short - fiber futures increased, and the sales of polyester bottle - chip plants improved [89][90]

据彭博报道，由于拉丁美洲地区避开了美国总统特朗普贸易战的最严重影响，投资者上周将大量资金投 入购买拉丁美洲股票的交易所交易基金 (ETF)，成为那些将目光投向美国以外的交易员的一个有吸引力 的投资选择。规模35亿美元的iShares MSCI巴西ETF上周录得8700万美元的资金流入，创2023年12月以 来的最大单周涨幅，也是今年的首次。总体而言，巴西是该地区流入资金最多的国家，ETF的资金总额 达1.456亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the U.S.-China trade tensions, highlighting that the recent tariff increase of 34% on U.S. imports has significantly weakened their competitiveness, potentially benefiting Chinese alternatives [1] - It suggests that despite the current challenges in U.S.-China relations, there is an opportunity for China to capitalize on the situation and aims for a comprehensive victory in the trade conflict [1] Group 2 - The three major indices experienced a collective decline, indicating a weak market performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping to a low of 3279.88 points before stabilizing [3] - The market is characterized by a narrow range of fluctuations, with a notable lack of momentum, suggesting that if the situation does not improve, bearish sentiment may prevail [5] Group 3 - The trading volume for the day was 1.06 trillion, a decrease of 57.2 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 4100 stocks declining and nearly 100 stocks falling by more than 9% [6] - Despite the overall index not showing significant declines, the majority of individual stocks faced substantial losses, indicating a challenging environment for investors [6][7]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a strong rebound due to signs of de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war and President Trump's assurance regarding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's position. The Nasdaq Composite Index led the rally with a gain of 6.7%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increased by 4.6% and 2.5%, respectively [1] Nasdaq Performance - The Nasdaq Index returned to positive territory in April, with the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ) and Invesco QQQ (QQQ) both gaining over 9% [2] Key Stocks in QQQ ETF - Five stocks that were at the forefront of the rally include Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP), Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), Tesla (TSLA), AppLovin Corporation (APP), and Micron Technology (MU) [3][10] Trade Tensions - Reports indicate that China may suspend its 125% tariff on certain U.S. goods, which has positively impacted market sentiment. The potential tariff cuts could affect key sectors such as medical equipment and industrial chemicals [4] Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump clarified that he does not plan to remove Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026. Some Federal Reserve officials have indicated a willingness to consider interest rate cuts, with a potential cut as early as June being discussed [6] Earnings Highlights - Netflix (NFLX) reached an all-time high stock price of nearly $1,101, reflecting strong performance and investor confidence [7] - Despite Tesla's disappointing first-quarter results, shares rose after CEO Elon Musk expressed optimism about future goals [8] - Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) reported strong first-quarter results, exceeding earnings and revenue estimates, and announced a 5% dividend increase along with a $70 billion stock buyback authorization [8] QQQ ETF Fundamentals - Invesco QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with 59.5% of its assets in information technology and 20.2% in consumer discretionary. The ETF has an AUM of $286.8 billion and an average daily volume of over 63 million shares [11][12] Stock Performances - Microchip Technology (MCHP) saw a stock increase of 21.6% last week, with a slight positive earnings estimate revision [13] - Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock rose about 20% last week, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 34.1% [14] - Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 18.1% despite an estimated earnings decline of 22.3% for the year [15] - AppLovin (APP) gained 16.2% with an estimated earnings growth rate of 47.46% [16] - Micron Technology (MU) increased by approximately 16% last week, with an estimated earnings growth of 426.9% for the fiscal year [16]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between the CEOs of major U.S. retailers and Trump highlights the significant impact of tariffs on the retail industry, particularly as they face pressure from increased import costs due to tariffs on Chinese goods [2][4][16]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Retailers - Trump has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, which poses a substantial challenge for U.S. retailers like Walmart [5][9]. - Walmart imported approximately $68 billion worth of products from China in 2024, and under the current tariff structure, it would need to pay $98.6 billion in tariffs if import values remain unchanged [9]. - The gross margin for Walmart is around 23%, indicating that absorbing these tariffs would lead to significant losses for the company [9]. Group 2: Retail Strategies and Consumer Impact - To cope with the tariff pressures, Walmart has two potential strategies: raising prices in the U.S. market or negotiating lower prices with Chinese suppliers [13][15]. - Raising prices could alienate American consumers, who may face significantly higher costs for everyday goods [13][18]. - If tariffs remain unchanged, there could be empty shelves in supermarkets within two weeks, directly affecting the daily lives of American citizens and potentially harming Trump's approval ratings [18][20]. Group 3: Future Trade Relations - Despite the pressures, the three major retailers have resumed trade with China, indicating that the trade war is intensifying rather than concluding [22][24]. - Trump expressed a desire to reach an agreement with China to facilitate business growth, but experts suggest this does not imply a reduction in tariffs [20][22]. - The ongoing situation suggests that the trade conflict will continue to evolve, with potential implications for both U.S. retailers and the broader market [24].

Summary:⚈Jim Cramer sees TJX Companies as the top retail winner of the trade war.⚈ He believes U.S. retailers like Macy’s and Kohl’s could benefit from tariffs.⚈Skepticism remains due to Cramer’s history of controversial stock calls.The former hedge fund manager and host of Mad Money, Jim Cramer, has been overwhelmingly bullish about the U.S. economy and equities in 2025, repeatedly voicing his confidence that America will win the escalating trade war with China.The trend continued on Monday, April 28, afte ...