Group 1: Gold Investment Opportunities - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged aligns with expectations, with guidance indicating two rate cuts within the year, which is favorable for gold prices [1] - The market anticipates improved dollar liquidity and potential rate cuts, suggesting a positive outlook for the gold sector [1] - The COMEX gold price has shown a slight increase of 1.16% week-on-week, reaching 3028.2 USD/ounce, with a significant rise in non-commercial net long positions by 9.25% [3] Group 2: Steel Sector Insights - The steel sector has experienced a three-year correction, and current levels present high potential for investment [1] - Recent data indicates a 4.19% week-on-week increase in national rebar consumption, totaling 2.43 million tons, while the overall price index for common steel has decreased by 1.17% [1] - The profitability and stability of leading steel companies have improved, and changes in upstream iron ore supply dynamics may lead to a recovery in domestic steel industry profitability [1] Group 3: Industrial Metals Outlook - The LME aluminum settlement price has decreased by 2.25% week-on-week, indicating market volatility [2] - The copper smelting fee has dropped significantly by 44.65%, reaching -2.3 USD/thousand tons, suggesting tightening supply conditions [2] - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to growth in solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI applications, leading to a potential increase in copper prices [2]

《中国经营报》记者注意到，地缘政治风险和经济担忧推动，使得国际资金避险需求持续上升，支撑黄 金价格一路上行。在此背景下，黄金ETF"吸金"效能显现，2025年年初至今，13只黄金ETF产品实现资 金净流入超百亿元。 金价连创新高 黄金ETF持续"吸金" 本报记者秦玉芳广州报道 多日来，国际现货黄金价格稳居在3000元美元/盎司大关以上，截至3月20日，国际现货黄金（伦敦金） 价格盘中最高达3057.14美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 与此同时，理财资金对黄金资产配置积极性也愈加凸显，"固收+黄金"产品持续扩容，尤其"固收+黄金 ETF"的策略越来越受理财机构及投资者青睐。市场人士分析认为，预期2025年黄金价格整体仍将上 行，受避险需求及政策引导，未来理财资金对黄金ETF配置需求仍不断提升，理财产品"含金"趋势将愈 加明显。 百亿资金涌入黄金ETF 截至3月20日，13只黄金ETF最新规模为695亿元，2025年年初至今实现资金净流入超105亿元。 3月20日，国际现货黄金开盘价3047.09美元/盎司，盘中最高达3057.14美元/盎司，再创历史新高。同 时，上海黄金交易所Au9999黄金盘中也一度突破710元 ...

黄金冲高遇阻调整，整体趋势依旧向上 黄金刷新历史高点后，走势冲高遇阻，短线展开调整，不过降息预期与避险需求，仍支撑黄金整体维持 上涨趋势，因此在操作上建议大家，以震荡思路对待，下方支撑关注3022美元，其次3005美元，上方压 力关注3047美元，其次3057美元。 从之后的走势看，黄金在欧盘盘中，企稳3022美元支撑后，展开反弹，涨至3038美元遇阻，美盘开盘后 不久，黄金在不到1小时时间里，短线急跌超过30美元，一度失守3000美元整数位置至2999美元，不过 金价很快企稳3000美元整数位置，收盘前反弹至3024美元遇阻。周一开盘，黄金反弹3026美元遇阻，目 前交投于3017美元。总体看，黄金冲高遇阻，短线震荡调整。 分析，上周五亚欧盘，黄金维持震荡整理走势，金价在美盘开盘后不久，短线意外急跌超过30美元，主 要因美股开盘大幅跳水，市场恐慌抛售下带崩金价，不过之后黄金企稳，收复大半跌幅，因对美联储降 息的预期，对黄金的避险需求，依旧支撑金价。目前黄金空头获得喘息机会，因美元刷新两周新高，以 及黄金连续冲高后，面临获利了结需求，不过特朗普关税政策的不确定性，美国空袭也门与以色列空袭 加沙，令中东紧张局势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the U.S. deficit and regional conflicts are driving price increases, with a focus on investment opportunities in gold and minor metals [14]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $307 billion in February, a 4% year-on-year increase, raising inflation concerns and pushing COMEX gold prices above $3,000 per ounce, marking a historical high [14]. - The conflict in eastern Congo has led to the suspension of operations at a major tin mine, causing tin prices to surge to $37,000 per ton, the highest since June 2022 [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The consumption of rebar increased to 2.33 million tons, a 5.84% week-on-week rise, while the overall price index for common steel saw a slight increase of 0.29% [15][40]. - The average daily pig iron production among 247 steel companies was 230.59 thousand tons, showing a minimal increase of 0.03% [25]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in the profitability of long and short process rebar production, with long process margins down by 22 CNY/ton and short process margins down by 16 CNY/ton [37]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the TC/RC negative values are deepening, suggesting a potential for continued copper price increases, with LME aluminum prices rising to $2,713 per ton, a 0.74% week-on-week increase [17]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for copper is expected to grow due to sectors like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI [17]. Precious Metals - The COMEX gold price reached $2,993.6 per ounce, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase of 2.60%, with a notable decrease in non-commercial net long positions [17]. - The report suggests that tariffs may continue to elevate demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, indicating a favorable outlook for gold investments [17]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights a significant increase in China's lithium carbonate production in January 2025, which rose by 32.55% year-on-year, while nickel production saw a notable decline of 13.32% [46][48]. - The demand for new energy vehicles in China surged, with January 2025 production reaching 965,900 units, a 27.85% year-on-year increase [50].

美国赤字与地区冲突推升价格上涨，关注 黄金与小金属板块投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 11 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 铁矿石：供给格局或迎巨变，钢铁盈利有 | 2025-03-12 | | --- | --- | | 望回流：——"中国定价"系列报告之一 | | | 德国财政刺激大超预期，关注铜铝和小金 | 2025-03-09 | | 属板块投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观 | | | 点（2025 年第 10 周） | | | 2 月制造业 PMI 超预期，关注钢铁板块投 | 2025-03-03 | | 资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 | | | 年第 9 周） | | | 1. 核心观点：美国 ...

长按即可免费加入哦 昨夜今晨，海外市场表现也不平静！ 截至当地时间14日收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨1.65%，标普500指数涨2.13%，纳斯达克指数涨 2.61%。标普500也创下大选以来最大反弹。 不过从本周来看，道指跌3.07%，标普500指数跌2.27%，纳指跌2.43%。其中，道指创下自2023年 3月以来最大单周跌幅，标普500指数和纳指连续第四周下跌。 消息上，美国政府关门危机解除。据央视新闻报道，当地时间3月14日，美国国会参议院就短期支 出法案进行投票，以62票赞成、38票反对的票数通过该法案。 美国国会众议院当地时间11日以微弱优势通过短期支出法案，基本按现有支出水平维持联邦政府 运转至9月30日即2025财政年度结束。参议院需要在14日午夜之前就该法案采取行动，以保持政府 正常运转。 此外，当地时间3月14日，美国财政部长贝森特当日在致议员的一封信中表示，财政部将延长特别 措施的使用期限至6月27日，以允许联邦政府支付账单，直到国会解决债务上限问题。 报道称，美国在1月21日达到约36万亿美元的债务上限，迫使财政部采取特别措施并动用手头的现 金，以避免违约。贝森特指出，由于"相当大的不确定性 ...