Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. Core Views - Soda ash supply increased and inventory accumulated as of January 8, maintaining a weak pattern. The short - term is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to macro sentiment and other factors, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved [8][9]. - Glass futures' main contract FG2605 continued to rise on January 8, 2025. Short - term supply contraction may support prices, but high inventory restricts the market, and the upward trend is slow [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - Supply: As of the week of January 8, the weekly output rose to 753,600 tons, a year - high, with a month - on - month increase of 8.11%. The equipment operation is stable with no maintenance plan [8]. - Demand: This week, the total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises decreased to 589,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.99%. The downstream float glass daily melting volume decreased by 300 tons to 151,500 tons, while the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume of 88,500 tons was relatively stable [8]. - Inventory: Affected by logistics during the festival, the factory inventory increased to 1.5727 million tons [8]. - Policy: The Shanxi differential electricity price policy strengthened the expectation of capacity clearance and "anti - involution" policies, accelerating the clearance of ammonia - alkali plants [8][9]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the long - term supply - demand pattern remains unoptimistic without significant export expansion or backward capacity clearance [9]. Glass - Market: On January 8, 2025, the main contract FG2605 continued to rise. The market shipment was good, with obvious inventory reduction in some areas, and prices were boosted by market sentiment [10][11]. - Supply: There is an expectation of supply reduction. The overall inventory is high with obvious regional differentiation [11]. - Outlook: Short - term supply contraction may support the price, but high inventory restricts the market. The upward trend is slow, and there is an expectation of rebound and decline before substantial positive factors appear [11]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data from Wind and iFind [13][18][20]

2026.01. 08 本文字数：2124，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周楠 2026年伊始，A股迎来"开门红"，沪指连续四个交易日（1月5日至8日）收于4000点上方。多家外资 机构发布展望，表示看好中国市场2026年的表现。 "从估值角度看，目前，中国资产并未进入过热区间。"瑞银集团中国区总裁胡知鸷对第一财经表示， A股此轮行情并非由过度拥挤的交易推动，而是由捕捉新质生产力投资机遇的资金所推动。 她同时提到，去年以来，外资对中国市场的关注度显著回升，外资从此前被动等待、进进出出的流动 状态，转向为主动、长期地参与交易。 高盛也表达了对中国市场的看好。该机构在最新披露的研报中称，对A股和H股维持超配评级，2026 年市场将由估值扩张推动的增长，转向由盈利增长驱动。"在当前盈利增长、估值水平和投资者仓位 普遍较低的背景下，中国股票的风险回报比具有吸引力。"高盛中国股票首席策略师刘劲津称。 瑞银称2025年中国市场"超预期发挥" 刚 刚 过 去 的 2025 年 ， A 股 主 要 指 数 悉 数 上 涨 。 据 Wind 数 据 ， 2025 年 全 年 ， 上 证 指 数 累 计 上 涨 18. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, it remains relatively strong year-on-year. A slight decline in off-season demand is normal. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. From the cost side, the strength of coking coal and coke and the sharp rise of iron ore provide strong cost support. The total inventory is relatively high, posing some pressure. On Wednesday, the entire black series rose sharply, with high enthusiasm. The hot-rolled coil futures broke through upwards with heavy volume. On Thursday, it tested the support level during intraday trading. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and it is relatively safe to buy on dips. It is expected to continue to rise strongly [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 63,008 lots, with a trading volume of 696,880 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,302 yuan, and the high was 3,348 yuan. It fluctuated within the day with intense washing. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, showing strength. It closed at 3,317 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, or 0.48% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 3 yuan, close to flat water [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was up 16,200 tons year-on-year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills. The supply has increased, and the subsequent increase needs to be observed [3] - Demand side: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption declined slightly, but it was up 72,500 tons year-on-year. The demand still showed resilience [3] - Inventory side: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons week-on-week (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The total inventory was at a five-year high. The inventory still exerted pressure on prices [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involutionary competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply-side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [5] - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) saw a net inflow of over 320 million yuan, supported by anti-involution policies and demand expectations stabilizing coal prices [1] - Shanxi Securities indicated that anti-involution policies have reversed market expectations for coal, with the "Document 108" in 2025 aiming to compress supply through measures like checking overproduction, leading to a stabilization and rebound in coal prices [1] - The short-term controlled supply combined with long-term demand recovery expectations is likely to improve industry profitability, with coal consumption expected to enter a peak plateau during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2 - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain stable as long as the incremental growth of renewable energy generation does not exceed the overall electricity consumption growth [1] - By 2026, thermal coal is projected to maintain a tight balance with a price center around 720 yuan/ton, while coking coal may show a weak balance with a price center estimated at 1440 to 1584 yuan/ton, calculated as 2.0 to 2.2 times that of thermal coal [1] - The coal ETF (515220) has a scale exceeding 9 billion yuan, tracking the CSI Coal Index (399998), with a high dividend yield in the coal sector, exceeding 6% over the past 12 months as of the end of 2025, highlighting its allocation value in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 需求端：淡季效应深化，冬储谨慎，截至 1 月 8 日当周，表观消费 量周环比下降 25.48 万吨至 174.96 万吨，年同比下降 15.09 万吨，北方地 方施工停滞，南方工期收尾，表需连续三周下降，后续关注冬储需求启动。 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周四持仓量增仓 40418 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 1350602 手。全天震荡回落后尾盘企稳回升，均线来看站 上 5 日，20 日均线，最低 3156，最高 3198，收于 3168 元/吨，上涨 14 元/吨， 涨幅 0.44%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3310 元/吨，相 比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 142 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面冬 储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 库存端：库存开始增库，截止 1 月 8 日当周，总库存周环比上升 16.08 万吨至 438.11 万吨，连续 9 周去化之后开始累库，其中社会库存 290.18 万 吨，周环比上升 7.52 万吨 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese stocks will be supported by artificial intelligence and policy measures, with the MSCI China Index expected to rise by 20% by the end of 2026, and the CSI 300 Index projected to increase by 12% to 5200 points [1] - As of the first trading day of 2026, the CSI 300 Index has already risen by 3.5%, reaching a four-year high, while the MSCI China Index has increased by approximately 3.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 [1] Group 2: Earnings-Driven Growth - The core argument of Goldman Sachs' report is that returns in 2026 will be primarily driven by earnings growth, supported by artificial intelligence, "going global" strategies, and anti-involution policies [2] - Five major capital flows are expected to support the market: net southbound capital inflows potentially reaching a record $200 billion; domestic asset reallocation bringing about 3 trillion RMB into the stock market; total dividends and buybacks nearing 4 trillion RMB; global active funds possibly increasing their allocation to Chinese stocks; and IPO financing exceeding $100 billion [2] Group 3: Investment Logic - On a macro level, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's real GDP growth in 2026, citing resilient exports as a key driver, with a trend towards diversification and quality improvement in export destinations [4] - The report indicates that the valuation of the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 has recovered to mid-cycle levels, with forward P/E ratios of 12.4x and 14.5x, respectively, around or slightly above the 10-year average [4] Group 4: Sector and Company Insights - Goldman Sachs expects the TMT sector (technology, media, and telecommunications) to have the highest earnings growth forecast at approximately 20%, driven by AI-related revenue growth and increased capital expenditures [5] - The firm holds an "overweight" view on several sectors, including technology hardware, media/entertainment, internet retail, materials, and insurance, benefiting from various supportive factors [5] - A list of ten leading Chinese companies comparable to the "Big Seven" in the U.S. stock market includes Tencent, Alibaba, CATL, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Hengrui Medicine, and Trip.com, with a total market capitalization of $1.7 trillion, accounting for 40% of the MSCI China Index [6]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is entering a bottoming phase, with the expectation that "anti-involution" policies will accelerate, leading to a need for continuous cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which will drive demand for new equipment [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The photovoltaic equipment industry is expected to see a rise in demand for new technologies such as N-type long crystal, Xbc/0BB/HJT/TOPCon, which will also increase the demand for related equipment, core components, and consumables in the short term [1] - In the medium to long term, perovskite battery technology is anticipated to open up new growth avenues for the photovoltaic industry [1] - The photovoltaic sector is part of the broader semiconductor industry, with core equipment and components having the potential to extend into the semiconductor equipment market, thus creating long-term development opportunities [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overseas market is identified as a significant direction for power equipment, with exports related to power and new energy equipment expected to benefit from the resolution of Europe's energy vulnerabilities [1] - The Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) tracks the photovoltaic industry index (931151), which selects listed companies involved in silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, modules, and photovoltaic equipment to reflect the overall performance and development trends of China's photovoltaic industry [1] - The index is characterized by high growth potential and volatility, effectively representing the market performance of upstream and downstream companies in the photovoltaic industry chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) indicates strong investor interest, with significant capital inflows and a favorable market outlook for the Hong Kong tech sector driven by expectations of RMB appreciation and increased foreign investment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech ETF experienced a net inflow of 687 million yuan on January 7, 2026, increasing its fund size to 44.5 billion yuan and total shares to 59.4 billion [1][8]. - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the tech sector, has shown signs of recovery, with a total net purchase of 27.6 billion HKD by southbound funds in the first three trading days of 2026, reflecting a rebound in confidence from mainland investors [2][9]. Group 2: Valuation and Growth Potential - The Hang Seng Tech Index currently has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23.68, which is at the lower end of its historical range, suggesting significant potential for valuation recovery [3][10]. - Goldman Sachs projects that Chinese corporate earnings will grow by 14% and 12% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with an additional estimated 10% potential for valuation recovery, driven by advancements in AI, corporate expansion abroad, and anti-involution policies [4][11]. Group 3: Investment Vehicle Advantages - The Hang Seng Tech ETF offers advantages such as large scale, good liquidity, and support for T+0 trading, with a low management fee of only 0.2% per year [5][12]. - Investors unable to directly trade ETFs can consider related ETF-linked funds for exposure [5][12].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 8 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

Economic Outlook - The global economy in 2026 is expected to exhibit a complex system characterized by non-linearity, path dependence, and adaptability, showing high instability but resilience [1] - The "First Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index" for January 2026 is reported at 50.32, indicating a recovery and maintaining a prosperous state [2][3] Inflation and Price Predictions - The average predicted year-on-year CPI growth for December 2025 is 0.8%, while the PPI is forecasted at -2% [5][6] - CPI predictions range from a minimum of 0.5% to a maximum of 0.9%, indicating a slight increase from November's 0.7% [6] - The PPI predictions range from -2.3% to -1.9%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's -2.2% [6] Industrial and Investment Growth - The predicted growth rate for industrial added value in December 2025 is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's 4.8% [9][10] - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by an average of -2.2%, showing a recovery from November's -2.6% [11] - Real estate development investment is forecasted to decrease by -15.8%, with signs of a narrowing decline in transaction volumes [12] Trade and Export Forecasts - The trade surplus for December 2025 is predicted to be $1113.5 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous month [13][14] - Exports are expected to grow by 2.5%, down from 5.9% in the previous month, while imports are forecasted to increase by 0.7% [14][15] Financing and Monetary Policy - New loans are projected to reach 7182.5 billion yuan in December 2025, recovering from the previous month's 3900 billion yuan [15][16] - The total social financing is expected to average 1.8 trillion yuan, lower than the previous month's 2.5 trillion yuan [16][17] - M2 growth is predicted to remain at 8%, consistent with November's figures [18] Policy Directions - Fiscal policy is anticipated to become more proactive, with an increase in the scale of government debt and continued support for local debt initiatives [20][21] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [20][21]