反内卷政策

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黑色金属日报-20250829
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 13:00
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by 'なな☆' [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by '女女女' [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, suggesting a more definite long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coke**: ★★★, suggesting a more definite long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Coking Coal**: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by 'な女女' [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★★, suggesting a more definite long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The operation rating is not clearly defined by text, indicated by '女女女' [1] 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The steel market faces a negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is low. The downstream demand is still weak, and the market remains under pressure in the shock. The improvement of building material demand in the peak season needs to be observed, and the market expectation is still pessimistic [2] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand of iron ore weakens marginally, and the reduction of hot metal production moves from expectation to reality. The market speculative sentiment fluctuates, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] - **Coke**: The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal remains at a high level in the off - season. The coke price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high short - term volatility [4] - **Coking Coal**: The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal remains at a high level in the off - season. The coking coal price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high short - term volatility [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese demand is good, the price has limited downward space, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [6] - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron demand is acceptable, the supply rebounds significantly, and it mainly follows the trend of silicon manganese [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - This week, the apparent demand for thread steel improved, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand and production of hot - rolled coil both declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate [2] - The hot metal production decreased slightly at a high level, and the market faced negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level was low [2] - The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing gradually slowed down, and the overall domestic demand was still weak, while exports were expected to remain high [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments declined from a high level but were still stronger than last year. The domestic arrival volume decreased, and port inventory decreased slightly this week [3] - Terminal demand continued to improve seasonally. Steel mills' profits weakened, but the willingness to actively reduce production was insufficient, and hot metal production decreased slightly [3] - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations increased, and domestic policy rumors about production restrictions were repeated. Iron ore supply - demand weakened marginally, and it was expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price was weakly volatile during the day. Due to the approaching major event, the production - restriction expectation of coking plants in East China rose again [4] - The daily hot metal output increased, and the steel - making profit remained high. The coking industry proposed an eighth - round price increase, and the daily production increased slightly [4] - The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders decreased. The price was greatly affected by policies and had high short - term volatility [4] Coking Coal - The price was weakly volatile during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions weakened, and the terminal inventory decreased slightly [5] - The total coking coal inventory increased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. It was likely to increase in the short term due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down mines [5] - The carbon element supply was abundant, and the price was greatly affected by policies and had high short - term volatility [5] Silicon Manganese - The price declined during the day and rebounded at the end of the session. Attention should be paid to the shipment of South32's Australian mine [6] - The hot metal output remained above 240, and the weekly production of silicon manganese continued to increase. The inventory did not accumulate, and the spot and futures demand was good [6] - The manganese ore price decreased slightly this week, but due to the approaching major event, manufacturers stocked up in advance, and the price had limited downward space [6] Silicon Iron - The price declined during the day and then rebounded. The hot metal output decreased slightly but remained above 240, and the export demand remained at about 30,000 tons [7] - The metal magnesium production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was acceptable [7] - The silicon iron supply rebounded significantly, the market expected good demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. It mainly followed the trend of silicon manganese [7]
华富强债LOF: 华富强化回报债券型证券投资基金2025年中期报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-29 11:22
华富强化回报债券型证券投资基金 基金管理人:华富基金管理有限公司 基金托管人:中国建设银行股份有限公司 送出日期:2025 年 8 月 30 日 华富强化回报债券 2025 年中期报告 基金管理人的董事会、董事保证本报告所载资料不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏, 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带的法律责任。本中期报告已经三分之二以 上独立董事签字同意,并由董事长签发。 基金托管人中国建设银行股份有限公司根据本基金合同规定,于 2025 年 8 月 29 日复核了本 报告中的财务指标、净值表现、利润分配情况、财务会计报告、投资组合报告等内容,保证复核 内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产,但不保证基金一定盈利。 基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现。投资有风险,投资者在作出投资决策前应仔细阅读本 基金的招募说明书及其更新。 本报告中财务资料未经审计。 本报告期自 2025 年 1 月 1 日起至 2025 年 6 月 30 日止。 华富强化回报债券 2025 年中期报告 §2 基金简介 | 基金名称 | 华富强化回报债券型证券投 ...
白酒、电池等低估值品种补涨,中证A500ETF龙头(563800)盘中价格再创年内新高,权重股宁德时代涨超10%股价重回300元上方
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 07:48
Group 1 - The A-share market showed a narrow fluctuation on August 29, 2025, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index reaching new highs during the session. Strong sectors included insurance, liquor, and small metals, while concepts like sodium batteries, lithium mines, solid-state batteries, and battery recycling saw significant gains [1] - As of August 28, 2025, a total of 3,967 listed companies in A-shares had disclosed their semi-annual reports for 2025, with 3,077 companies reporting profits and 890 companies reporting losses. Notably, 201 companies had net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan, and 809 companies experienced net profit growth exceeding 50% [1] - The A500 ETF leader (563800) rose by 0.89%, with its constituent stocks showing strong performance, including Ningde Times up 10.24% and BYD up 4.23%, indicating a recovery in market confidence and investment interest [1] Group 2 - Wanlian Securities noted that most companies reported year-on-year growth in net profit, particularly among leading firms, suggesting a gradual recovery in corporate profitability. The market sentiment improved in August, driven by policies aimed at reducing competition and boosting industry chain prosperity [2] - The TMT sector saw significant capital inflows, with various sub-sectors in pharmaceuticals and machinery equipment gaining market attention. The market's liquidity is expected to improve further due to increased trading activity and active leveraged funds [2] - Financial confidence is expected to be supported by policies aimed at demand-side recovery and increased household savings entering the market, which will be crucial for the strength of market indices [2]
新能源今日大涨,后市如何看?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 06:57
大家好,我是天弘基金祁世超。关注新能源汽车领域的伙伴,投资路上我们相伴前行。 在今日的资本市场中,新能源板块呈现出引人注目的表现。今日新能源盘中行情的良好表现,是产业链 价格回升、需求侧支撑、固态电池催化以及反内卷政策护航等多种因素共同作用的结果。我的观点如 下: 产业链价格回升态势: 近一个月,产业链上游价格呈边际回升态势,其中锂资源环节表现出更强弹性,主要是受到头部厂商阶 段性产能推出的影响: 碳酸锂价格反弹拉动锂矿采购需求增长,加之海外矿山供应增量有限、贸易商挺价情绪浓厚,共同推动 锂矿价格持续走强;而云母提锂产能释放不及预期,进一步加剧了锂云母矿的供需紧张。与此同时,盐 湖提锂因生产成本低、原料自给率高,产能利用率维持在较高水平;相比之下,锂云母提锂领域中,外 购锂辉石的企业因面临成本倒挂,开工率相对较低。受反内卷政策预期及期货市场情绪的双重带动,碳 酸锂与氢氧化锂价格均出现明显反弹。 三、固态电池持续催化,逐步进入量产阶段 量产进度:固态电池的量产进程已逐步明确,按照规划,2026 年将进入小批量试产阶段,2027 年实 现量产。目前,固态电池产业已有 8 家电池企业搭建了中试线,普遍规模在 0.3 ...
国贸期货黑色金属数据日报-20250829
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 06:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Steel market: The steel market is following market risk appetite and sentiment, with attention to short - term long opportunities. The 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract represents the blast furnace's static cost, providing static support for hot metal production before the peak demand season is falsified [4]. - Ferro - silicon and ferromanganese: The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has limited impact on dual - silicon. The anti - involution policy supports prices in the long - term. Supply is increasing, inventory is being depleted, and steel tenders are generally positive, but inventory pressure remains [5][6]. - Coking coal and coke: The market is expected to be weak. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. Mid - line long - position investors should wait for the first round of coke price cut news [7]. - Iron ore: Although there is an expected increase in supply in the second half of the year, considering the "anti - involution" policy and potential policy changes in the steel sector, the 01 - contract has effective support below [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On August 28, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.79%; HC2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.78%; J2605 closed at 1760 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.45%; JM2605 closed at 1222 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.50%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 917 yuan or 0.55%; HC2510 closed at 3385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.83% [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: On August 28, the coil - rebar spread was 256 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the rebar - ore ratio was 3.96, down 0.05; the coal - coke ratio was 1.42, down 0.02; the rebar disk profit was - 69.33 yuan/ton, down 8.25 yuan; the coking disk profit was 109.75 yuan/ton, down 24.93 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On August 28, Shanghai rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3290 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 103.9, up 1.45. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the billet - product spread was 260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Unilateral short - term long positions can be taken with the 3100 level as the support and the previous low as the stop - loss. For futures - cash operations, follow the basis changes and conduct positive - spread rolling operations [4][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to whether the impact of the mine accident will spread. Industrial customers can consider hedging opportunities after price increases [7][9].
午评:创业板指涨超2%,保险、白酒等板块走强
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-29 05:52
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced slight fluctuations, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index reached new highs during the session. As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16% to 3849.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.34%. The STAR 50 Index fell by 2.51%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 18,754 billion yuan [1]. Sector Performance - Strong sectors included insurance, liquor, tourism services, small metals, gold, daily chemicals, copper, supermarket chains, chemical pharmaceuticals, and textile machinery. Conversely, sectors such as semiconductors, IT equipment, communication devices, software services, components, forestry, and diversified finance showed weakness [1]. Concept Stocks - Concept stocks related to sodium batteries, lithium mines, solid-state batteries, and battery recycling saw significant gains [1]. Market Sentiment - Financial analysts noted a clear market structure differentiation, with technology stocks, particularly in computing hardware and semiconductor chips, leading the market. Other sectors are experiencing rapid rotation, indicating the need for careful market timing. Mid-term factors influencing the A-share market include anti-involution policies and demand-side policies. The influx of household savings into the market is expected to support the strengthening of market indices. The outlook remains for a strong oscillation in indices, with an increased tolerance for investment risks and a recommendation for active participation in the A-share market [1].
新能源及有色金属日报:基本面变化不大,盘面受消息面影响波动-20250829
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 05:12
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-29 基本面变化不大,盘面受消息面影响波动 2025-08-28,工业硅期货价格宽幅震荡,主力合约2511开于8530元/吨,最后收于8570元/吨,较前一日结算变化(30) 元/吨,变化(0.35)%。截止收盘,2511主力合约持仓273754手,2025-08-28仓单总数为50656手,较前一日变化-53 手。 供应端:工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据,昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300(-50)元/吨;421#硅在9400-9600 (-50)元/吨,新疆通氧553价格8400-8600(-50)元/吨,99硅价格在8400-8600(-50)元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西 北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅降低,97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计8月28日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.1万吨,较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.9万吨, 较上周增加0.2万吨,社会交割仓库42.2万吨(含未注册成仓单及现货部分),较上周环比减少0.4万吨。(不含内蒙、 甘肃等地)。 消费端:据SMM统计,有机硅DMC报价10500-11000(0)元/吨。有机硅 ...
黑色金属数据日报-20250829
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel market is following market risk appetite and sentiment, with attention on short - term long opportunities around the blast furnace cost. There are still inventory build - up issues, but the 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract represents the blast furnace static cost and provides support for iron - water production before the peak demand season is falsified [4]. - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a limited impact on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Although the basic supply - demand of double - silicon is resilient, the high inventory still poses a de - stocking pressure. The industry's average profit has been significantly repaired [5][6]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak and volatile. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. Mid - line investors in long positions should wait for the first round of coke price cut news [7]. - The iron ore price increase is restricted by supply increments in the second half of the year and future capacity release expectations. However, the impact of policies on the steel sector may be greater than the price itself, and the support for the 01 - contract iron ore is still effective [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On August 28, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.79%; HC2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.78%; I2605 closed at 765.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.46%; J2605 closed at 1760 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.45%; JM2605 closed at 1222 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.50%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 917 yuan or 0.55%; HC2510 closed at 3385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.83%; I2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan or 1.74%; J2601 closed at 1672.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan or 0.51%; JM2601 closed at 1175 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 0.90% [1]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis also had corresponding changes on August 28 [1]. Spot Market - On August 28, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3280 yuan/ton, Tianjin rebar at 3240 yuan/ton, Guangzhou rebar at 3290 yuan/ton, Tangshan billet at 3020 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index at 103.9. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions also had different performances. Other spot prices such as those of coking coal and coke also had specific values and changes [1]. Steel - The steel market is still in a situation of inventory build - up, but the 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract provides support. It is recommended to go short - term long around 3100 with the previous low as the stop - loss point, and conduct positive - spread rolling operations in the futures - cash market [4][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan" has limited impact. The supply - demand is resilient, but high inventory requires de - stocking. The industry profit has been repaired [5][6]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot trading atmosphere has weakened, the eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of price cuts in September. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the impact of mine accidents spreads, and industrial customers can consider hedging opportunities on price rallies [7][9]. Iron Ore - The steel apparent demand is rising, but inventory build - up may continue. The iron ore price increase is restricted by supply increments, but policy impacts may be significant, and the support for the 01 - contract iron ore is still effective [8].
春兴精工:扣非净利亏损收窄,主营微增显韧性,新能源爬坡静待放量
Zhong Jin Zai Xian· 2025-08-29 03:08
2025年8月28日晚间,苏州春兴精工股份有限公司(证券代码:002547,证券简称:春兴精工)发布了 2025年半年度业绩公告。公告显示,2025上半年春兴精工营收为9.77亿元,其中主营业务收入为9亿 元,同比增长4.21%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-1.29亿元,主要系新能源汽车件产能处于爬坡及 惠州春兴拟计提预计负债2,100万元;扣除非经常性损益后的归母净利润为-1.25亿元,同比去年同期收 窄2,800万元。 部分业务微幅改善 尽管整体业绩仍未扭亏,但半年度业绩透露了部分积极信号:汽车件业务营收与毛利率同比分别实现增 长7.36%、1.59%,其中春兴精工生产新能源汽车件的主要子公司金寨春兴净利润比去年同期亏损收窄 1099.69万元;精密结构件业务营收提升12.77%;主营业务收入整体增幅4.21%;海外市场也有所增长, 增幅为6.44%。这些细微变化或许预示着公司在结构性调整中正逐步企稳。 值得注意的是,春兴精工汽车件业务虽实现营收微增,但其新能源汽车件产能仍处于爬坡过程中,生产 效率和产品良率尚未达到理想状态,这一阶段性问题不仅限制了该业务的盈利贡献,也对公司本期整体 经营业绩造成了一定 ...
国投期货综合晨报-20250829
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:37
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil may shift to a volatile trend before geopolitical risks further intensify, and short - selling opportunities after the peak season should be watched [2]. - Precious metals are in a volatile trend, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3]. - For various metals and industrial products, their prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and seasonal factors, and different trading strategies are suggested accordingly [4][5][6]. - For agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors like weather, trade policies, and supply - demand expectations, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided [34][35][36]. - In the financial market, the stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks, and a style of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained; the yield curve of treasury bonds is expected to steepen [46][47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 0.82%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Before geopolitical risks further intensify, crude oil may turn to a volatile trend [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After a sharp decline in oil prices, fuel - related futures also fell. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales and China's bonded marine fuel filling demand decreased year - on - year, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm was also low. The overall fundamentals are relatively more positive [21]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content. Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices declined. The market is still cautious about the economic performance. High - level short positions should be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the overall decline of non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [5]. - **Zinc**: Fundamentally, supply increases while demand is weak. Although the short - term downside space is limited, one should wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel's rebound was blocked and it fell back. The overall inventory is still high, and one should look for short - selling positions [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, both domestic and international tin prices broke through the integer - level resistance and expanded their gains. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and the market trading volume shrank. It is expected to be strongly volatile in general [11]. Industrial Products - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The short - term market sentiment led to the weakening of the futures price. One should pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are approaching the lower limit of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices were weakly volatile. The market is under negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is relatively low. The short - term price is still under pressure [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures were volatile overnight. The overall supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Their prices decreased during the day. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and short - term volatility is high [16][17]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Affected by the auction of imported soybeans, the price of Dalian soybean meal continued to fall. The market is cautiously bullish on Dalian soybean meal in the medium - to - long - term [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: They showed a volatile adjustment. One can consider buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term attention should be paid to soybean policy guidance [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term volatile consolidation pattern [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures rebounded last night. Given the good growth of US corn and the expected domestic harvest, the futures may continue to be weakly traded at the bottom [38]. - **Hogs**: The spot and futures prices of hogs are both weak. It is expected that the hog price will remain weak in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures continued to set new lows with increased positions. One can consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [40]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market lacks strong positive factors and is expected to be volatile in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton should be bought on dips [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar has insufficient positive factors. Sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price increased with increased positions. The short - term price may continue to rise, but there is a lack of positive factors on the supply side in the medium - to - long - term [43]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks. The strategy of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].