Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 3500-point mark, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2.4%, indicating strong performance in the small and mid-cap sectors [1] - Fund companies attribute the market surge primarily to risk aversion, suggesting that future breakthroughs depend on sustained market sentiment [1][4] Policy and Economic Factors - The market's strength is linked to policy expectations and active trading sentiment, particularly in light of the "anti-involution" policies [2] - The State Development and Reform Commission's notice on promoting large-capacity charging facilities is expected to catalyze the photovoltaic industry, with solar equipment stocks rising nearly 7% [2][3] Sector Performance - Industrial Fulian (601138) projected a net profit increase of 36.84% to 39.12% for the first half of 2025, with AI server revenue growing over 60%, boosting related sectors [3] - The photovoltaic sector saw significant rebounds due to the renewed focus on "anti-involution" policies, while the power sector experienced a correction after previous gains [3] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience rapid rotation in July, driven by small-cap performance and strong earnings expectations in technology sectors [4] - The decline in trade uncertainties is seen as a driving factor for the recent stock market uptrend, with policy expectations likely to bolster market confidence [4] Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on a "barbell strategy," emphasizing offensive sectors like technology and defense, while also considering defensive sectors such as banking and precious metals [6] - There is a strong emphasis on identifying opportunities in new technologies and industries, including solid-state batteries, digital currencies, and AI applications [6] Economic Indicators - Recent PMI data indicates continued improvement in manufacturing activity, although expectations for production and operations remain uncertain, highlighting the need for proactive policy measures [5] - Upcoming major meetings in July are anticipated to provide critical policy direction that could positively impact market sentiment [5][6]

2025-07-08 交易内参 光大期货交易内参 金融类 股指： 昨日，A 股市场震荡持平，Wind 全 A 微跌 0.03%，成交额 1.23 万亿元。中证 1000 指 数上涨 0.24%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.19%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.43%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.33%。公用事业、房地产领涨，煤炭回调，板块轮动继续。近期中央财经委召开第六次 会议，强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，基本要求是"五统一、一开放"。市场对 于反内卷背景下企业盈利回升和通胀企稳的预期颇高，但与 2016 年供给侧改个不同的是， 本轮"反内卷"政策并未配套类似于 2016 年的增量财政政策，未来对相关题材的影响还需 参考中央财政增量政策的转导方式和规模。海外方面，"非农"强劲背景下美联储降息预 期稍缓，国内小盘指数受到的提振明显减弱，未来需继续关注美国内部博弈过程。目前指 数基本面仍取决于国内经济复苏进程，化债背景下信用收缩、需求不足仍是当前主要矛盾， 指数很难突破中枢大幅上涨。另一方面，2025 年上半年企业盈利情况较 2024 年有明显改 善，在配置型资金托底的背景下，A 股指数短期同样不会出现大幅下 ...

Group 1: Overview of Grid Trading Strategy - The essence of "grid trading" is a high buy low sell strategy, which is based on price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making it suitable for markets with frequent price movements [3][12] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include: selecting on-market targets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being relatively suitable for grid trading [3][12] Group 2: Focused ETF Grid Strategy Targets - **Asia-Pacific Selected ETF (159687.SZ)**: This ETF tracks the FTSE Russell Asia-Pacific Low Carbon Selected Index, covering major companies in sectors like semiconductors, internet, automotive, and consumer goods across the Asia-Pacific region. In the first half of 2025, Japan's M&A activity surged with a transaction volume of $232 billion, more than doubling year-on-year, enhancing foreign investment enthusiasm [3][13] - **Photovoltaic ETF (515790.SH)**: The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a bottom reversal. Recent government initiatives have aimed at addressing low-price competition and promoting high-quality development in the industry [4][16] - **Coal ETF (515220.SH)**: Extreme summer temperatures are driving up rigid demand for coal, with national electricity load reaching a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June [5][17] - **Medical ETF (512170.SH)**: Long-term global aging is driving continuous growth in medical demand. In 2025, several policies supporting the innovative drug industry have been introduced, enhancing the structural investment value of innovative drugs [6][21] Group 3: Additional ETF Grid Strategy Targets - A diverse combination of ETFs with low correlation is recommended for grid trading, such as pairing broad-based and sector-specific ETFs or combining A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to enhance capital utilization and risk diversification [24]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-08 政策及资金扰动持续，多晶硅盘面继续反弹 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-07，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2509开于7980元/吨，最后收于8045元/吨，较前一日结算变化（55） 元/吨，变化（0.69）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓384707手，2025-07-08仓单总数为51349手，较前一日变化 -352手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8700-8800（0）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9200 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8000-8200（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8000-8100（0）元/吨。昆明、四川地区部分硅价 仍下降。黄埔港、天津、西北、上海、新疆地区硅价暂稳。 97硅价格同样暂稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。据SMM统计，6月国内有机硅DMC产量环比5月 增加13.75％，同比减少1.60％。6月国内多数有机硅单体企业开工负荷有所提高。7月虽国内仍有部分单体企业开 工负荷有所下降，但整体影响量较为有限，7月预估有机硅产量环比6月上 ...

梁凤仪上述公开讲话后，A股和港股随即大幅拉涨。 在南下资金的带动下，以人民币计价的港股交易规模有望一路往上。 人民币股票交易柜台纳入港股通细则即将落地，A股、港股强势上涨。 7月8日，香港证监会行政总裁梁凤仪在债券通周年论坛2025上发表讲话时提到，将人民币股票交易柜台 纳入港股通的技术准备工作进展顺利，力争近期向市场公布实施细则。 利好公布后，两地市场集体走高。截至收盘，A股三大指数全线飘红，创业板指大涨2.39%，沪深两市 成交额突破1.47万亿元；港股恒生科技指数一度飙升近2%，南向资金持续净买入，美团、腾讯等双柜 台概念股获资金抢筹。业内人士认为，随着人民币股票交易机制突破在即，叠加美联储降息预期升温， 港股市场或正迎来新机遇。 A股港股联袂大涨！ 8日上午，梁凤仪在债券通周年论坛2025上讲话时表示，一直与内地监管机构积极合作，持续推动将人 民币股票交易柜台纳入港股通，目前，相关的技术准备工作进展顺利，力争近期向市场公布实施细则。 梁凤仪还称，希望在市场了解到清晰的时间表后，更多的企业会考虑发行人民币股票交易柜台。在南下 资金的带动下，以人民币计价的港股交易规模有望一路往上。 她另外提到，在提升二级 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, indicating potential improvements in supply and demand due to ongoing anti-involution policies [6]. Core Insights - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance the supply-demand dynamics within the industry, particularly in the pesticide sector, where inventory reduction has led to price increases [12]. - The report highlights significant price movements in key products, with notable increases in herbicide prices, such as glyphosate, which rose to 25,301 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.03% increase week-on-week and a 7.18% increase year-to-date [6][12]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in various sectors, including integrated refining and chemical companies, leading tire manufacturers, and firms involved in new material production [13]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Event Commentary - The central government is focusing on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition, which is expected to improve the overall market environment [12]. - The pesticide industry has shown significant inventory reduction, with glyphosate prices increasing due to tighter market supply [12]. 2. Chemical Sector Weekly Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.54%, while the basic chemical index increased by 0.80%, indicating a lag behind the broader market [14]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included oil and gas engineering, polyester, and compound fertilizers, while other plastic products and textile chemicals saw declines [15][16]. 3. Key Product Price Movements - Notable price increases were observed in butanone (12.43%), TDI (5.54%), and dichloromethane (3.97%), while acetone and NYMEX natural gas experienced significant declines [24][25]. - The report also tracks price spreads, with significant increases in the spreads for dimethyl ether and PET bottle chips, while the spreads for adipic acid and acetic acid saw substantial declines [26][27]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as leading firms in the refrigerant and tire manufacturing sectors [13]. - It also highlights opportunities in the pesticide sector due to improving supply-demand conditions and suggests monitoring companies involved in high-end engineering plastics and semiconductor materials [13].

| 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。目前铁水产量 区间运行 | | 螺纹钢 | 仍然较高，螺纹产量继续上升，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好。国内需求进 | | | 入淡季，长期偏弱状态并未转变，基差修复背景下行情或区间运行。【3040， | | | 3080】 | | 热卷 | 越南对中国热卷出口反倾销税终裁落地。国内热卷产量小幅上升，表观需 区间运行 | | | 求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基本面变化不大，前期 | | | 上行主要受市场情绪改善推动，短期表现或进入区间运行。【3060，3200】 | | 铁矿石 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 区间参与 | | | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构环比转 | | | 弱。观点：短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【715，740】 | | 焦炭 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂焦企产量仍然较高。总库存环比下降， 震荡 绝对水平偏高。铁水产量环比上升，对原料需求保障，供需变化不大。短 | | ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side adjustment in China is expected to be milder compared to the previous round, but may take longer and involve a wider range of industries[2] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to guide enterprises to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand[4] - Historical experiences indicate that large-scale capacity reduction leads to a rapid decline in production factor costs and enhances the competitiveness of leading enterprises, ultimately stabilizing prices[5] Group 2: Demand-Side Measures and Consumer Confidence - Recent policies, such as birth subsidies and trade-in incentives, are being implemented to alleviate short-term financial pressures on families and enhance their willingness to have children[6] - Fiscal transfer payments are most effective in boosting long-term consumption when targeted at financially constrained households, as they have a higher marginal propensity to consume[7] - A stable and sustainable economic growth requires simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides, ensuring policy strength and predictability[8] Group 3: Asset Prices and Economic Impact - The interaction between rising asset prices and the real economy is still in its early stages, with recent "anti-involution" policies potentially improving fundamental expectations[9] - The ongoing expansion of active credit is crucial for maintaining a strong performance in equity markets, with a focus on the stability of financing balances across society[11] - Historical cases show that asset price increases can lead to recovery in the real sector demand, but also risk tightening regulations if bubbles form[10] Group 4: U.S. Economic Resilience - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June's non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, slightly above expectations[13] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable labor market[16] - Market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly decreased, with anticipated cuts of approximately 54 basis points later in the year[17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 硅供应收缩预期强化，新能源金属价格走势 趋强 新能源观点：硅供应收缩预期强化，新能源⾦属价格⾛势趋强 交易逻辑：中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能，投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强，市场情绪转向偏乐观，新能源金属价格走势趋强。 中短期来看，供应端收缩预期强化，工业硅和多晶硅价格大幅上涨， 这在一定程度上对碳酸锂也构成较为正面的提振，后续密切留意产业 链动向；长期来看，低价或有望进一步加快国内自主定价品种的产能 出清，比如：多晶硅和工业硅等，碳酸锂还处于产能兑现阶段，若锂 矿无实质性减产，长期过剩问题还将存在，这将限制价格上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：反内卷政策发酵，多晶硅价格震荡回升。 碳酸锂观点：仓单⼤量注销，碳酸锂⾛势偏强。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-07-08 桂伶 从业资格号：F03114737 投资咨询号：Z0022425 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 航运 | 集运欧线 | 1888.5 | 2.09% | 2.09% | 7.22% | 17.08% | -16.33% | 黄金 | 771.3 | -0.74% | -0.74% | 0.48% | -2.42% | 24.8 ...