Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on January 12, opening at $4,518.58 per ounce, reaching a high of $4,627.49, a low of $4,513.08, and closing at $4,621.30 [1] Economic Outlook - New York Fed President Williams projected a healthy U.S. economy in 2026, indicating no reason for interest rate cuts in the short term. He stated that current monetary policy is well-positioned to support labor market stability and help inflation return to the 2% target [2] - Williams expects GDP growth this year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with the unemployment rate stabilizing and then declining in subsequent years. He anticipates inflation pressures peaking between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to 2% by 2027 [2] Federal Reserve Investigation - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed dissatisfaction regarding the investigation into Fed Chair Powell, suggesting it could negatively impact financial markets. He indicated that Powell's position is now more secure than before [4] - Former Fed Chair Yellen criticized the investigation as undermining the Fed's independence, expressing surprise at the market's lack of concern. She firmly stated that Powell would not commit perjury [5] - UBS Chief Economist Donovan noted that the investigation could ultimately strengthen the Fed's independence, as market concerns about political interference in rate management are rising [5] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from countries conducting business with Iran, which is intended to increase pressure on the Iranian government. This move may temporarily reduce the likelihood of U.S. military intervention in Iran [6] - The White House emphasized that diplomacy remains the preferred approach, although military options are still on the table if necessary [6] Protests in Iran - Protests against rising prices and currency devaluation have occurred in Iran, leading to unrest and casualties. However, reports indicate that the situation in Tehran has stabilized, with improved public order [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 6.24 tons, bringing the total to 1,070.8 tons [7] Market Sentiment - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January is at 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is at 95%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 26% [7]

Core Viewpoint - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, expects a healthy U.S. economy by 2026 and sees no reason for interest rate cuts in the short term [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Williams stated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has moved its moderately restrictive monetary policy stance closer to neutral [1][3]. - He believes that monetary policy is currently positioned to support labor market stability and bring inflation back to the FOMC's long-term target of 2% [1][3]. - Williams expressed an optimistic economic outlook, projecting GDP growth for the year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with the unemployment rate stabilizing and then declining in subsequent years [2][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - He noted that inflation pressures are expected to peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, before declining to 2.5% for the remainder of the year [2][5]. - Williams emphasized the importance of returning inflation to the 2% target without causing excessive risks to the labor market, highlighting increased downside risks to employment as the labor market cools [1][4]. - The recent reduction in short-term borrowing costs was driven by policymakers attempting to balance a weak labor market with inflation still above the 2% target [4].

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, anticipates a healthy U.S. economy by 2026 and suggests there is no reason for interest rate cuts in the short term [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The FOMC has shifted monetary policy from a moderately restrictive stance to a level close to neutral, which is conducive to supporting labor market stability and pushing inflation back to the 2% target [1] - It is crucial for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation back to the 2% target while avoiding unnecessary risks to the labor market [1] Group 2: Economic Forecast - Williams projects GDP growth for this year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with the unemployment rate stabilizing this year and declining in subsequent years [1] - In terms of inflation, he expects price pressures to peak in the first half of this year between 2.75% and 3%, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to 2% by 2027 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's recent focus is on the December non - farm payroll data and the tariff ruling result. The December non - farm payroll data did not cause significant market impact. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.375% in December, exceeding market expectations and well below the previous value of 4.6%, temporarily avoiding the trigger of the Sahm Rule. However, the non - farm employment added in December was 50k, lower than expected and the previous two months' data was revised down by a total of 76k. The labor market demand remains weak. The tariff - related de - dollarization and pre - emptive interest rate cut logic may reverse if the tariff bill is invalidated, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The Federal Reserve's threshold for a January interest rate cut is high, and if the labor market maintains the current "low - speed balance", the short - term monetary easing path may not be supported [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Indicators Exchange Rate - related Indicators - The US dollar index rebounded slightly following the US - Germany interest rate spread. The US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has recovered. The difference in the US - Europe Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has also increased [2][5][7] - The difference in long - term inflation expectations between the US and Europe has further declined, and the US long - term inflation expectation is oscillating at a low level [9][12] - The US short - term interest rate expectation is significantly changing, and the difference in short - term interest rate expectations between the US and Europe is rising [14][16] - The euro swap basis shows that the US dollar cross - border liquidity pressure is limited [18] Position and Market Sentiment Indicators - The CFTC net position shows that the US dollar maintains a net short position exposure. The VIX index reflects market volatility [21][20] Bond Spread Indicators - Based on the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits and the US dollar trend show a slight narrowing of the spreads [23] Commodity - related Indicators - The US dollar index and copper price show that the copper price has risen significantly, and the US dollar index and crude oil price show that the crude oil price has rebounded [27]

Core Viewpoint - Silver futures are experiencing a significant increase, currently trading above 20,073, with a notable rise of 12.82% from the opening price of 18,800 per kilogram [1] Group 1: Silver Futures Market Analysis - As of the latest report, silver futures are priced at 20,651 per kilogram, with a peak of 20,685 and a low of 18,743 during the trading session [1] - The long-term bullish trend in silver remains dominant, with support levels identified at 20,000 and 19,300 points for the week [1] - The silver premium has expanded to 1,600 yuan per kilogram, indicating a resurgence in domestic market sentiment [1] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The latest employment data from the U.S. Labor Statistics shows an addition of 50,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.4% [1] - Federal Reserve official Barkin highlighted the need for continued monitoring of rising unemployment and persistent inflation, noting that inflation has been above target levels for nearly five years [1] - Barkin emphasized the delicate balance between moderate job growth and labor supply, which remains a point of encouragement despite the slow employment growth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rebound in overseas risk appetite, with geopolitical tensions leading to significant increases in gold and oil prices [2][5]. - Major developed market indices saw gains, with the Nikkei 225, DAX, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 3.2%, 2.9%, and 2.3% respectively, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.4% [5]. - Emerging market indices also experienced growth, with the Korean Composite Index, Istanbul Stock Exchange National 30 Index, and Ho Chi Minh Index increasing by 6.4%, 5.9%, and 4.7% respectively [5]. Group 2 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.6% and 1.9% respectively, while the WTI crude oil price increased by 3.1% to $59.1 per barrel, and COMEX gold prices rose by 3.6% to $4,473.0 per ounce [2][32]. - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $783.6 billion, and the net issuance of U.S. debt fell, with the 15-day rolling net issuance amount dropping to -$27.03 billion [47]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 reached $1.82 trillion, lower than the $1.91 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024 [50]. Group 3 - The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, despite non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, which was below market expectations [64]. - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 47.9, marking a third consecutive month of decline, primarily driven by inventory destocking [66]. - The article notes that the labor market is experiencing a "low-growth balance," with potential for continued economic resilience driven by consumer spending and fiscal stimulus [64].

Core Viewpoint - The December non-farm payroll report has led to a complete reversal of market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the end of the month, as the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4% despite only 50,000 new jobs being added [1][3][12]. Employment Data Summary - The December non-farm payroll report showed an increase of only 50,000 jobs, falling short of Wall Street's expectation of 65,000. Additionally, the previous two months' job numbers were revised down by a total of 76,000, with October's figures adjusted from a loss of 105,000 to a loss of 173,000, and November's from an increase of 64,000 to 56,000 [5]. - The average monthly job growth in the private sector over the last three months has dropped to 29,000, marking the second-lowest level for the year. The total non-farm employment increase for 2025 was only 584,000, the weakest annual performance since the pandemic caused a loss of 9.2 million jobs in 2020 [5]. - In terms of industry performance, healthcare added 21,000 jobs, while retail trade, construction, and manufacturing saw job losses. Out of 11 major sectors, five experienced declines in employment [7]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate fell from an initial estimate of 4.6% in November to 4.4% in December, which was below the expected 4.5%. This decline has temporarily alleviated the most severe concerns regarding the deterioration of the labor market [3][12]. - The drop in the unemployment rate was partly due to a decrease in the labor force participation rate, which fell to 62.4%, indicating that some unemployed individuals have exited the labor market and are no longer counted as actively seeking work [12]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment report, U.S. Treasury prices fell across the board, with yields rising by up to 3 basis points. The probability of a rate cut in January dropped to zero, with traders now expecting the first rate cut in June, approximately 50 basis points for the year [3][13]. - Analysts believe that the report supports the Fed's decision to maintain rates at the upcoming January meeting, as the combination of a declining unemployment rate and resilient wage growth suggests that the current rate levels may not be impacting the economy significantly [13][14]. Future Outlook - Economists anticipate that the focus for the Federal Reserve will shift towards inflation data and subsequent labor market performance to determine the pace and magnitude of potential rate cuts throughout the year [14].

Employment Data Overview - December non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%[2] - The labor force participation rate declined to 62.4%, which statistically suppresses the unemployment rate, diluting its actual significance[4] Employment Sector Insights - Private sector added 37,000 jobs, with leisure and hospitality, and education and healthcare contributing 88,000 jobs combined, significantly boosting overall non-farm employment[14] - Job losses were evident in the goods-producing sectors, with construction, manufacturing, and mining losing 11,000, 8,000, and 2,000 jobs respectively, indicating weakening demand in the real economy[14] Wage Trends - Average hourly earnings in the service sector rose by 3.7% year-on-year, while goods-producing sectors saw a 4.1% increase, driven more by structural factors than by demand[20] - The increase in average wages reflects a structural effect where low-wage positions are being eliminated, raising the average wage of remaining employees[20] Monetary Policy Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in January is near zero, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance due to the current employment and inflation dynamics[24] - The Fed's policy decisions will be influenced by upcoming inflation data and potential changes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) membership, which could reshape market expectations[24]

Core Viewpoint - The December non-farm payroll report has eliminated market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the end of this month, despite only 50,000 new jobs added in December and significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data. The unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% provides ample justification for the Fed's decision to maintain its current monetary policy stance [1][4][13]. Employment Data Summary - The December non-farm payroll report revealed an increase of only 50,000 jobs, falling short of Wall Street's expectation of 65,000. Additionally, the previous two months' job numbers were revised down by a total of 76,000, with October's figures adjusted from a loss of 105,000 to a loss of 173,000, and November's from an increase of 64,000 to 56,000 [8]. - The average monthly job growth in the private sector over the last three months has dropped to 29,000, marking the second-lowest level for the year. The total non-farm employment increase for 2025 was only 584,000, the weakest annual performance since the pandemic caused a loss of 9.2 million jobs in 2020 [8]. - In terms of industry performance, healthcare added 21,000 jobs, while sectors such as retail trade, construction, and manufacturing saw job losses. Out of 11 major industries, five experienced declines in employment [11]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.6% in November to 4.4% in December, alleviating some of the most severe concerns regarding labor market deterioration. This decline is partly attributed to a drop in the labor force participation rate to 62.4%, indicating that some unemployed individuals have exited the labor market and are no longer counted as actively seeking work [4][18]. - The decrease in the unemployment rate is a key highlight of the non-farm payroll report and serves as a core basis for the Fed's decision to hold rates steady [18]. Wage Growth Analysis - Despite the weak job growth, wage growth remains resilient, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.3% month-over-month in December, and the annual wage growth reaching 3.8%, which is approximately 1 percentage point above the inflation rate [12]. Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the employment report, bond traders quickly adjusted their positions, almost entirely retracting bets on a January rate cut. U.S. Treasury prices fell across the board, with yields rising by up to 3 basis points. The probability of a January rate cut dropped to zero, with traders now expecting the first rate cut in June, following the end of Fed Chair Powell's term, with an anticipated total cut of about 50 basis points for the year [5][20]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious approach, with the focus shifting to inflation data and subsequent labor market performance to determine the pace and magnitude of potential rate cuts throughout the year [22].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 10 日 1 月降息预期打消 —2025 年 12 月美国就业数据分析 频率：每月 事件：2026 年 1 月 9 日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布：2025 年 12 月非农 就业人数新增 5 万人，前值 6.4 万人；失业率录得 4.4%，前值 4.6%。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《PPI 超预期回升——2025 年 12 月通胀数据点评》2026- 01-09 2、《预计 2025 年 5%收官—— 宏观经济预测报告（2025 年 12 月）》2026-01-06 3、《从"安全资产"到"地缘 安全资产"———宏观与大类 资产周报》2026-01-05 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张岸天 S1090522070002 zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 宏观点评报告 图 1：时薪增速环比偏强（%） 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 ...