Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% in July 2025, down from 4.3% in June, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point decline [1] - The number of employed individuals in Australia increased by approximately 0.2% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year, reaching 14.6414 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals decreased by about 1.5% month-on-month but increased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling 649,000 [1] Employment Data Summary - The monthly hours worked increased by 0.3%, while the underemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% [1] - Trend data indicates that the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a month-on-month employment increase of approximately 0.2% [1] - Year-on-year employment growth was 2%, aligning with the population growth rate [1] Employment Composition - Full-time employment rose by 60,000 in July, contributing positively to overall employment growth [1] - Part-time employment saw a decrease of 36,000, which negatively impacted the total employment figures [1] - The labor statistics supervisor noted that the employment growth rate has been declining in recent months despite being higher than the population growth rate for most of the past year [1]

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate decreased to 4.2% in July 2025, down from 4.3% in June, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point drop [1] - The number of employed persons increased by approximately 0.2% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year, reaching 14.6414 million [1] - The number of unemployed persons decreased by about 1.5% month-on-month but increased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling 649,000 [1] Employment Data Summary - The monthly hours worked increased by 0.3%, and the underemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% [1] - Trend data shows the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a month-on-month employment increase of about 0.2% and a 1% rise in unemployed persons [1] - Monthly hours worked saw a slight increase of approximately 0.1%, with the underemployment rate unchanged at 5.9% [1] Employment Composition - Full-time employment rose by 60,000 in July, while part-time employment fell by 36,000, impacting overall employment growth [1] - Over the past year, the year-on-year growth in employment numbers has consistently outpaced population growth, although recent months have shown a decline in employment growth [1] - The year-on-year employment growth in July was 2%, aligning with the population growth rate [1]

汇通财经APP讯——随着全球经济风向标——美联储 的下一步动作备受关注，市场对9月降息的预期几乎板上钉钉。最新数据显示，美联储9 月降息已成市场共识，而财长贝森特更抛出"50基点暴击"的震撼预告。更耐人寻味的是，就在这个敏感时刻，美联储主席候选名单突然从3人 暴增至11人，背后究竟暗藏哪些玄机？ 市场预期：9月降息几乎无悬念 根据芝加哥商业交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具，在美国 劳工统计局发布7月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据后，市场对美联储9月降息的预期 达到了惊人的99.9%。这一数据反映了市场对美联储在9月16-17日会议上至少降息25个基点的强烈信心。7月CPI数据显示，美国通胀温和，物 价上涨速度已逐步放缓，这为美联储调整货币政策提供了空间。更引人注目的是，美国财长贝森特（Bessent）在接受彭博电视采访时明确表 示，鉴于近期就业数据的疲软，美联储可能需要更大幅度降息，甚至可能一次性下调50个基点。 贝森特进一步指出，当前联邦基金利率（4.25%-4.5%）的限制性过强，可能会对经济造成不必要的压力。他建议将利率下调150至175个基点， 使之接近所谓的中性利率水平（约3%），即既不刺激经济 ...

英国国家统计局8月12日发布报告称，受劳动力成本攀升影响，英国就业市场持续遇冷，第二季度失业 率保持在近四年来最高水平。 2025年5月至7月，英国的空缺职位数为71.8万个，同比减少16.8%，与疫情前水平相比下降9.7%。同 期，英国国家统计局监测的18个行业中有16个行业空缺职位减少。报告援引国家统计局调查结果说，一 些企业表示可能不会招聘新员工，或者不再填补离职员工的空缺。 报告数据显示，今年4月至6月，英国16岁以上人口失业率达到4.7%，同比环比均上涨，并超出新冠疫 情前水平；同期，英国登记在册就业人数同比环比均下降。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. is currently experiencing "quasi-stagflation," characterized by economic weakness and commodity inflation coexisting[1] - Manufacturing and real estate sectors have shown varying degrees of weakness, with the July ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48%, the lowest this year[6] - The primary drivers of U.S. economic growth are showing marginal weakness, with Q2 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 3.0%, largely due to a contraction in imports[6] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Current inflation may not be sufficient to prevent the restart of interest rate cuts, as resilient core service inflation has not increased significantly[10] - The July CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, indicating that overall inflation is not as strong as anticipated[11] - Market expectations currently include three rate cuts, but this may be adjusted based on the pace of unemployment rate increases[22] Group 3: Unemployment Trends - The speed of the increase in the unemployment rate may be a key factor in determining the extent of interest rate cuts, with projections suggesting it may rise to 4.4%-4.5% by year-end[17] - The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 4.0%-4.2% this year, indicating a relatively stable labor market[21] Group 4: Risks and Market Outlook - Potential risk factors include geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and a more significant-than-expected weakening of the U.S. labor market[26] - The dollar index may have further downside potential, and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to perform better than long-term bonds[23]

新华财经伦敦8月13日电（记者赵阳）英国国家统计局12日发布报告称，受劳动力成本攀升影响，英国 就业市场持续遇冷，第二季度失业率保持在近四年来最高水平。 报告数据显示，今年4月至6月，英国16岁以上人口失业率达到4.7%，同比环比均上涨，并超出新冠疫 情前水平；同期，英国登记在册就业人数同比环比均下降。 2025年5月至7月，英国的空缺职位数为71.8万个，同比减少16.8%，与疫情前水平相比下降9.7%。同 期，英国国家统计局监测的18个行业中有16个行业空缺职位减少。报告援引国家统计局调查结果说，一 些企业表示可能不会招聘新员工，或者不再填补离职员工的空缺。 英国国家统计局经济统计主任利兹·麦基翁（Liz McKeown）表示，这些数据表明，劳动力市场在持续 降温。她说："在过去12个月里，有10个月出现了登记在册就业人数下降的情况，主要集中在酒店业和 零售业。这些行业就业机会减少也导致劳动力市场空缺职位数持续下降。" 英国商会公共政策副总监简·格拉顿（Jane Gratton）表示，持续的工资增长正在给企业和经济带来挑 战。今年雇主的国民保险缴费上调之后，许多企业已停止招聘，还有一些企业已进行裁员。在该 ...

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. rose slightly in July to 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from June, while the overall CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Month-on-month, the core CPI increased from 0.23% in June to 0.32% in July, aligning with market expectations[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month growth rate decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.20% in July[1] Labor Market Insights - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 104,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July[1] - Average hourly wage growth showed an increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, despite the overall labor market data weakening[1] Price Trends - Core goods prices saw a slight month-on-month increase to 0.21% in July, with notable declines in clothing and furniture prices[2] - Transportation goods inflation turned positive in July at 0.22%, reversing a decline of -0.38% in June[2] - Super core service prices rose by 0.19 percentage points to 0.55%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel[2] Tariff Impact - Current tariff policies are estimated to raise the U.S. inflation rate by 0.8% to 1.6%[5] - The average tariff rate is projected to be around 20%, higher than the previous 17% during the 90-day suspension period[5] - The new tariff framework categorizes countries into three groups, affecting their respective tariff rates significantly[4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts starting in September, with two 25 basis point cuts anticipated this year[6] - The July inflation data and the downward revision of employment figures from May and June provide sufficient rationale for potential rate cuts[6] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium may offer further insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction[6]

NIG的经济学家Min Joo Kang研报称，韩国低迷的私人部门招聘，尤其是制造业和 建筑业的招聘，可能 会在今年全年拖累整体经济增长。Kang表示，该国7月份经季节性调整的失业率从6月份的2.6%小幅降 至2.5%，但制造业就业人数连续第二个月下降，而建筑业在2025年的过去七个月中有六个月出现就业 人数减少。尽管疲软的国内需求需要韩国央行的政策支持，但该央行可能会将降息推迟到10月份，因为 缺乏当地房产价格正在降温的迹象。 ...

Market Overview - The Japanese stock market opened high on August 13, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1% and surpassing the 43,000 points mark [3][4] - The Nikkei 225 index reached a current value of 43,042.48, up by 324.36 points or 0.76% [4] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index also increased, setting a new historical high [5] Individual Stocks Performance - Notable individual stocks such as Sony, Subaru, and Toyota all saw gains exceeding 2% [7] - Sony: Current price 4,084.0, up 2.30%, market cap 25.12 trillion [7] - Subaru: Current price 3,131.0, up 2.69%, market cap 2.2952 trillion [7] - Toyota: Current price 2,916.5, up 2.15%, market cap 46.07 trillion [7] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.515% [8] - Japan's wholesale price index (CGPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, a slowdown from the previous month's 2.9% [8] - The import price index in yen terms decreased by 10.4% year-on-year in July, compared to a 12.2% decline in June [8] South Korean Market Update - The KOSPI composite index opened with a rise of over 1% but later experienced fluctuations [9] - South Korea's adjusted unemployment rate for July was reported at 2.5%, slightly better than the expected 2.6% [11] - Employment numbers in South Korea increased by 171,000 year-on-year in July, marking the second consecutive month with job growth exceeding 100,000 [11]

格隆汇8月13日｜据《商业内幕》，摩根大通经济学家Murat Tasci警告，AI将取代大批白领知识工作者 ——也就是从事"非例行性认知职业"的办公室工作者。考量到白领知识工作者约占美国所有家庭就业的 45%，这种转变也可能对整体经济构成巨大风险，可能出现经济复苏但就业机会没有相应增加、失业率 居高不下的现象。 根据摩根大通分析，近年来"非例行性认知"工作者占失业比例已超过例行性工作者。Tasci指出，AI对 就业市场的影响尚未显著冲击就业数据。美国整体失业率仍接近历史低点，7月约为4.2%。不过，该行 相信对白领知识工作者的压力可能随时间累积。 (责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...