文字早评 2026/02/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美伊冲突走向愈加悲观，伊朗石油储量为全球第三并控制霍尔木兹海峡，多位分析师预测油价将大 幅上涨； 2、国内 AI 大模型与机器人借春晚实现全民出圈，京东等平台销量数据更是提供了业绩验证； 3、人民币汇率强势升值至 6.89 区间，股债汇三市联动向好，外资回流趋势确立； 4、荣耀将推出首款人形机器人，聚焦消费市场；SK 海力士 DRAM 及 NAND 库存仅剩约 4 周，今年所有客 户的需求都无法得到完全满足。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/9.13%/10.00%/6.60%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/3.80%/10.30%/7.40%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/2.46%/14.22%/10.51%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/6.02%/3.43%/3.89%。 期，据此计算，单日净投放 1135 亿元。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好、美国关税政策反转释放外需预期的背景下，叠加人民币汇率强势升 值带动外资流入、大模型发布潮与机器人出圈，股指有望先迎来一波偏强表现。 ...

Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The core viewpoint suggests a "mixed strong fluctuation" in the A-share market, recommending a cautious approach with a focus on observing rather than acting in the short term, while maintaining a "systematic slow bull" mindset for medium-term holdings [2][3] - During the holiday period, the A50 index rose by 1.39%, while the US Nasdaq and S&P 500 increased by 1.51% and 1.07% respectively, indicating mixed market factors [2] - The report anticipates that short-term opportunities may arise in AI applications and robotics sectors, which have overseas correlations and cultural relevance to the Spring Festival [2][3] Group 2: Macro Research - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a shift in the US stock market towards defensive strategies, with dividend and value stocks outperforming, while technology stocks face increased pressure [4] - Factors driving this shift include heightened geopolitical tensions, a decline in global risk appetite, and the Federal Reserve's tightening policies, which may lead to sustained high interest rates [4]

国内新闻 商务部：中方敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的有关单边关税措施 2月23日，中国商务部就美国最高法院裁定相关关税违法作出回应，敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的单边关税措施。 雷诺集团将全资控股FLEXIS 2月23日，雷诺集团、沃尔沃集团及达飞集团签署了一份具有约束力的协议。在通过反垄断审批的前提下，雷诺集团将收购三方 于2024年共同成立的合资公司FLEXIS SAS全部股权。该合资公司旨在打造具有突破性的新一代电动厢式货车。雷诺集团将全面负责 这一全新纯电动轻型商用车系列的研发工作，相关车型将按原计划于2026年底开始投产。 2026年1月乘用车均价18.6万元 2月23日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文表示，2026年1月乘用车均价18.6万元，均价提升1.5万元，市场回落明显。其中，常规燃 油车价格持续上升，2026年1月均价18.1万元，燃油车购买群体买车逐步稳定。新能源车的均价近期逐步下降，2026年1月是19.5万 元，量跌价升，体现新能源车消费的结构性变化。 2月23日全国高速公路车流量预计超6600万辆次 2月23日，据央视新闻消息，当日全国高速公路出行依然以返程车流为主，车流量虽有回落，但仍维持 ...

需重点留意的方向包括：AI人工智能板块节前关注预期较高，大模型为市场谈论焦点，但今日港股市 场大模型板块表现一般，明日需观察A股市场情绪是否出现短暂撤离；无人驾驶概念方面，假期赛博无 人驾驶汽车落地，马斯克技术更新对股市向来具有较高提振意义，构成又一关注焦点；锂电池板块方 面，目前多家外资机构看多，而锂电池市值体量较大，对盘面能否连续翻红至关重要。 综合上述分析，明日市场开门红概率较大，但具体走势仍需结合开盘后的板块轮动及量能变化动态观 察，投资者宜保持灵活应对姿态，精准踏准市场节奏。 明日A股市场终于迎来春节后首个交易日，开盘前一日港股大涨为明日行情带来参照，市场普遍关注A 股能否同步实现新年开门红。年前最后一个交易日，指数走出破位缩量阴线，击穿所有短期均线，对投 资者心理形成较大冲击，叠加春节假期各类消息满天飞，不少人对节后行情持消极预期。此外，假期期 间美方宣布对全球加征15%关税，进一步加剧市场对节后走势的担忧。但今日港股恒指上涨2.53%，恒 生科技指数上涨3.34%，为明日开盘带来不确定性，大盘究竟是高开高走收复失地，还是高开低走延续 调整，成为三亿股民关注的焦点。 深入分析可见，年前周五的破位下 ...

Market Overview - US stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.66%, Nasdaq by 1.13%, and S&P 500 by 1.04%. Notable declines included Tesla, Meta, and Amazon, each dropping up to 2.91%, while Apple rose by 0.60% and Nvidia by 0.91% [1] - IBM's stock plummeted by 13%, marking its largest single-day drop since 2000, following news that AI startup Anthropic's Claude Code tool can modernize COBOL programming on IBM mainframes [1] Commodity Prices - Spot silver surged by 5.0% to $88.52 per ounce, while spot gold increased by 2.5% to $5,227.85 per ounce [2] Energy Sector - The cost of long-term charters for super oil tankers has skyrocketed to over $92,000 per day, reaching a historical high [1] Technology Developments - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 130,000-ton copper supply deficit by 2026, transitioning to a mild surplus by 2027 [6] - SK Hynix reported that it is unable to meet all customer demands, leading to continued price increases in storage this year [7] - Apple is accelerating the development of three new wearable devices [8] - Elon Musk announced plans for Starship to launch over 10,000 satellites annually [9] - Meta plans to deploy millions of Nvidia chips [10] Regulatory and Legal Updates - The US Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs, impacting Trump's proposed tariff increases on various goods [2] Domestic Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China is increasing policy support for low-altitude industry innovation and development [13] - The National Energy Administration will implement a new energy system and sector-specific energy planning [14] - ByteDance launched the Doubao large model 2.0, competing with Gemini 3 and GPT 5.2 [16] Stock Market Insights - Analysts are optimistic about the A-share market post-holiday, with expectations of a "red envelope market" driven by increased risk appetite and policy anticipation [20][21] - The performance of robots and AI applications is highlighted as a key focus area for investment [22]

Group 1 - The spring market trend after the holiday is expected to continue, with price increases being a core focus for the first quarter [12] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of restoring global semiconductor supply chains and urges cooperation between China and the Netherlands [1] - The National Energy Administration plans to implement a new energy system and various energy planning initiatives by 2026, focusing on strategic projects and small-scale projects [2] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has taken action against Tianfeng Securities for illegal financing and information disclosure violations related to Wuhan Contemporary Technology Group [6] - The CSRC has also initiated an investigation into Qunke Technology for misleading statements during its overseas IPO process [7] - The market experienced significant declines, with major U.S. indices dropping, and notable movements in technology stocks, including Nvidia and Apple showing slight gains while others fell [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is set to open after the Spring Festival, with investors keenly watching for a "good start" in trading, influenced by the positive performance of the Hong Kong stock market during the holiday period [2] Group 1: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a strong performance during the Spring Festival, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing upward trends, while traditional sectors like dairy and media lagged [2][3] - Gold stocks surged due to rising international gold prices, with Zijin Mining up over 8% and Shandong Gold up 7.53% during the holiday [3] - The renewable energy sector also performed well, with companies like Ruipu Lanjun and Ganfeng Lithium seeing significant gains, driven by optimistic forecasts for lithium prices [3] Group 2: Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector, particularly AI infrastructure, saw notable gains, with Longi Green Energy rising over 15% as demand for optical fibers surged due to AI data center construction [4] - Companies in the AI and robotics space, such as MINIMAX and Yujian, experienced substantial increases, reflecting heightened market interest in AI technologies [5] Group 3: Market Outlook Post-Festival - Historical data indicates a 75% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the five days following the Spring Festival, suggesting a positive market sentiment [9] - Various brokerages have differing views on post-festival investment opportunities, with a focus on technology growth, small-cap stocks, and sectors benefiting from policy changes [10] - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to catalyze market movements, with infrastructure projects likely to see seasonal opportunities [10][11]

Macro - The international financial market remained stable during the Spring Festival, with a significant event being the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump, which may reduce his influence on the global economy [2][17] - Trump is forced to impose a 15% tariff under the 1974 Trade Act, with a maximum delay of 150 days requiring Congressional approval, indicating increasing limitations on his trade policies [2][17] Stock Index - Chinese financial data shows proactive government financing and optimistic short-term liquidity, with a significant increase in non-bank institution deposits and a sharp decline in household deposit growth [3][18] - The technology sector remains a key focus, with AI and robotics gaining attention, while the U.S. stock market shows a mixed performance in AI, with companies like Nvidia and TSMC remaining stable [3][18] - A-shares are expected to rebound after the market opens, with themes like robotics, AI computing power, new energy, and aerospace remaining active [3][18] Oil - Oil prices during the Spring Festival were primarily influenced by U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, with the U.S. military's significant troop buildup in the Middle East being the largest since 2003 [4][19] - The negotiations have a time constraint, with the U.S. aiming for an agreement within two weeks, while Iran may conduct military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially increasing oil price premiums [4][19] - The cash premium for Middle Eastern oil has recently reached $1 per barrel, with rising freight costs, indicating a strong regional market compared to Europe and the U.S. [4][19] Fuel Oil - Post-Spring Festival, fuel oil prices are driven by geopolitical premiums and domestic resumption of work, with strong support from rising oil prices due to U.S.-Iran tensions [21][22] - Domestic demand for marine fuel is expected to gradually recover as work resumes, with low inventories in Singapore and Zhoushan leading to stronger spot prices [21][22] Asphalt - The stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations and military buildup has led to a more than 4% increase in Brent crude prices, raising the valuation of asphalt [23] - Logistics recovery and pre-stocking for infrastructure projects in southern China are expected to boost demand, with a positive market sentiment [23] Methanol - Geopolitical risks eased before the holiday, leading to a significant drop in methanol prices, but renewed tensions during the holiday may influence prices upward [24] Urea - India's RCF urea import tender received bids totaling over 3.07 million tons, with prices around CFR $512 to $508 per ton, indicating strong demand despite a significant price gap between domestic and international markets [8][25] - Domestic urea prices remained stable during the holiday, with slight increases from some manufacturers, and current inventory levels have normalized compared to historical averages [8][25] Copper - Future attention is required on specific measures regarding U.S. tariffs and potential aggressive trade or fiscal policies that Trump may adopt for the midterm elections [26] Aluminum - The London aluminum market showed a trend of initial decline followed by recovery during the Spring Festival, influenced by news of Trump considering the removal of aluminum tariffs [27] Gold and Silver - The release of December PCE data and January FOMC minutes suggests a reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may exert downward pressure on gold and silver prices [28] Platinum and Palladium - Prices for platinum and palladium rose significantly during the Spring Festival due to increased market risk aversion stemming from uncertainties in U.S.-Iran relations [29] Cotton - The NCC projects a 3.2% year-on-year decrease in U.S. spring cotton planting area to 9 million acres, with strong export data supporting higher prices [30] Soybean Meal - Positive demand factors, including high crushing data and rumors of China purchasing 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans post-holiday, contributed to an upward trend in U.S. soybean prices during the Spring Festival [31]

张启尧分析，沃什提名美联储主席带来全球流动性预期收紧、美伊地缘事件、美股科技巨头资本开支超 预期等多重不确定因素集中释放后，短线投资者借这些利空事件对年初以来的多头交易进行获利了结， 并非基本面或政策路径发生实质性变化。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕也表示："沃什'降息+缩表'倾向引发金融条件紧缩担忧、美股科技龙头巨 额资本开支扰动与前期A股权重ETF持续被抛售交织助推了交易波动和信心走弱，加之临近春节长假观 望情绪升温，客观上股市微观结构受到负面冲击。" 辞旧迎新，马年A股第一个交易日已经到来。 "马年对于A股而言又将是值得期待的一年。随着前期调整释放一定风险，从事件催化和日历效应角 度，春节后将有望迎来马年的第一轮上行。"兴业证券首席策略分析师张启尧表示。 一些机构研究也表示，春节日历效应明显，A股节后表现往往强于节前，马年有望迎来"开门红"。 2月23日，港股走出强势行情，为节后市场提供重要参考。截至收盘，恒生指数收涨2.53%，恒生科技 指数收涨3.34%。盘面结构分化明显，有色金属、半导体概念、互联网科技股走高，中芯国际、美团涨 超5%。AI大模型、机器人板块回落，智谱跌超22%，MiniMax跌超1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is currently experiencing fluctuations, and investors should consider taking profits from positions established before the holiday, particularly in sectors like robotics and AI applications [1][4][17] - The robotics sector gained significant attention during the Spring Festival, but the Hong Kong stock market indicates that it is more suitable for short-term speculation rather than long-term investment at this time [2] - The AI application market in China is not showing significant breakthroughs, while Hong Kong stocks related to AI are performing strongly, suggesting potential opportunities for profit-taking [3][4] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices experienced volatility during the holiday, initially declining but later rising due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. policy, indicating a potential for further gains [5][8] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index showed mixed performance, with no clear upward or downward trend, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in these indices [9][12] - U.S. stock markets, including the Dow Jones and Nasdaq, exhibited narrow fluctuations, with technology stocks underperforming, which may impact the sentiment in the A-share market [13][16] Group 3 - The overall strategy suggests that investors should partially reduce their positions on Tuesday to secure profits from pre-holiday investments, while remaining observant of market trends and potential opportunities in the following days [17]