分析师Giuseppe Dellamotta评欧元区零售销售数据：欧元区零售销售保持强劲势头。财政支出的增加和 欧洲央行的降息应该会让这种势头得以保持。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The net financing of government bonds in May was nearly 1.5 trillion yuan, which is expected to continue to strongly support fiscal expenditure. As of the 21st week (May 19 - May 25), the cumulative net financing of government bonds reached 6.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.9 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and treasury bonds. The cumulative generalized deficit was 4.5 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.7%, exceeding the same period last year [1][6]. Summary by Related Categories Treasury Bonds - The net financing of treasury bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 243.5 billion yuan, and 0 yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 2.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 40.2%, exceeding the same period in the past five years. The total annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. In 2025, the central deficit is 4.86 trillion yuan, and special treasury bonds of 1.8 trillion yuan are arranged: 1.3 trillion yuan is for ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, of which 30 billion yuan is for consumer goods trade - in; 500 billion yuan is for special treasury bonds to supplement the capital of state - owned large - scale banks [7]. Local Bonds - The net financing of local bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 142.6 billion yuan, and 137.4 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.4 trillion yuan [9]. New General Bonds - The net financing of new general bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 5.5 billion yuan, and 23.6 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 327.4 billion yuan, with a progress of 40.9%, exceeding the same period last year. The local deficit in 2025 is 800 billion yuan [2][12]. New Special Bonds - The net financing of new special bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 107.6 billion yuan, and 156 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). In 2025, the planned issuance of new special bonds is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 1.5 trillion yuan, with a progress of 33.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 242.4 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 100.8 billion yuan have been issued. As of May 25, 2025, 25 provinces and cities such as Guangdong and Anhui have successively announced projects to acquire existing idle land, covering 4,071 parcels of land with a capital scale of about 444.3 billion yuan [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bonds - The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was 25.1 billion yuan, and 5 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of the 21st week, the cumulative net financing was 1.6 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 81% [2][30]. Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 21st week (May 19 - May 25) was - 15.9 billion yuan, and is expected to be - 15.2 billion yuan in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1). As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.5 trillion yuan [2][32].

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's fiscal revenue showed positive growth driven by improved tax revenue and a low base effect, supporting increased expenditure [1][3] Revenue Summary - In April, the general public budget revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, a rise of 1.6 percentage points from March, primarily due to a recovery in tax revenue [1][3] - Tax revenue in April grew by 1.9%, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 2.2%, while non-tax revenue growth slowed to 1.7% [4][5] - Among the four major tax categories, corporate income tax, value-added tax, and consumption tax saw notable declines in growth rates compared to the previous month, while personal income tax surged by 9.0% due to a low base effect [4][5] Expenditure Summary - In April, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than March's growth rate, indicating a continued focus on stable growth [1][5] - Cumulative expenditure from January to April reached 31.5% of the annual budget, surpassing the average of the past five years [6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures grew by 2.2% in April, with significant increases in urban and rural community affairs and transportation spending [7] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue in April rose by 8.1%, driven by positive growth in land transfer fees, which increased from a decline of 16.5% in March to 4.3% [8] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly higher than March's 27.9%, primarily due to the issuance of new special bonds and a low base effect [9]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported an improvement in fiscal revenue for April 2025, with total public budget revenue reaching 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 1.4 percentage points from the first quarter. Notably, tax revenue grew by 1.9% in April, marking a positive monthly growth [1] - The overall public budget revenue in April showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, up from 0.3% in March, indicating a marginal improvement in the revenue structure [1] Group 2 - Among the four major tax categories, corporate income tax, value-added tax, and consumption tax saw significant declines in year-on-year growth rates in April, with growth rates of 4.0%, 0.9%, and 0.5% respectively, compared to previous values of 16.0%, 4.9%, and 9.6% [2] - The personal income tax experienced a notable increase of 67.5 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 9.0%, attributed to a low base from the previous year [2] Group 3 - In terms of fiscal expenditure, the general public budget expenditure grew by 5.8% year-on-year in April, surpassing the revenue growth rate, indicating a continued focus on stable growth in fiscal spending [4] - By the end of April, the general public budget expenditure completed 31.5% of the annual budget, higher than the average of 30.7% over the past five years [4] - Infrastructure-related expenditures showed a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, with significant increases in urban and rural community affairs and transportation spending, while expenditures in agriculture, forestry, water affairs, and energy conservation showed a slowdown [4]

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes that under pressure on the revenue side, the government may rely more on debt issuance this year, as tax revenue has decreased by 2.1% year-on-year and land sales revenue has dropped by 11.4% [2][11] - It suggests that the fiscal policy will likely require incremental debt to maintain its strength throughout the year, especially if there is no significant improvement in revenue [2][6] Group 1: Debt Issuance and Fiscal Policy - The government has accelerated debt issuance since the beginning of the year, with net financing expected to reach 13.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.2 trillion yuan compared to last year [5][12] - As of May 20, the known net financing of government debt reached 6.2 trillion yuan, achieving 44.9% of the annual target, compared to 22.5% during the same period last year [5][12] - The article indicates that if the revenue side does not improve significantly, the government may need to increase its debt issuance to maintain fiscal strength [6][13] Group 2: Non-Deficit Debt and Investment Focus - In the second quarter, non-deficit debt is expected to accelerate, reflecting a marginal shift in fiscal support towards investment [8][22] - As of May 20, the net financing of non-deficit debt reached 2 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 36.5%, indicating a focus on investment projects [22][23] - The article highlights that the acceleration of non-deficit debt issuance may signal increased fiscal support for infrastructure and other investment projects [23][28] Group 3: Special Refinancing Bonds and Local Government Debt - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has progressed rapidly, with a known progress rate of 77.8% as of May 20, indicating a focus on managing local government debt [28][29] - The article notes that local government hidden debts remain under strict control, with the central government expected to play a key role in increasing budgetary bonds and quasi-fiscal capital injections [29][31] - The emphasis is placed on the central government's commitment to not increasing hidden debts, reinforcing fiscal discipline [29][31] Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Insights - In April, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with tax revenue turning positive, particularly in the equipment manufacturing and technology sectors [31][33] - The article mentions that the expenditure progress for January to April was the fastest since 2020, with a notable increase in infrastructure spending in April [44][50] - The government’s focus on accelerating special bond issuance and enhancing fiscal support for projects is expected to continue, with a projected increase in government fund income [50][56]

Core Viewpoint - The South African Finance Minister indicated that there are no significant challenges unless unexpected shocks occur in spending, while the downside risks to revenue are more pronounced [1] Group 1 - The Finance Minister's statement suggests a stable outlook for government finances unless there are unforeseen expenditure issues [1] - The emphasis on revenue downside risks highlights potential vulnerabilities in the fiscal landscape [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - From the April fiscal data, although revenue has improved, government bond financing has also contributed significantly to the expenditure growth rate, with the expenditure growth rate of the second account reaching as high as 45%. As of now in May, government bond net financing has exceeded 1.4 trillion, and it is expected to continue to strongly support fiscal expenditure [1][7] Summary by Related Catalog Government Bond Financing - The net financing of government bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 6723 billion, and 3843 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 5.8 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 3.9 trillion [1][7] Treasury Bond Financing - The net financing of treasury bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 5012 billion, and 2417 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 2.4 trillion, with a progress of 36.5%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][8] Local Bond Financing - The net financing of local bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 1711 billion, and 1426 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 3.4 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 2.3 trillion [2][10] New General Bond - The net financing of new general bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 196 billion, and 55 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 3219 billion, with a progress of 40.2%, exceeding the same period last year [2][11] New Special Bond - The net financing of new special bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 775 billion, and 1076 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 1.4 trillion, with a progress of 31.1%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 2424 billion have been issued, and land reserve special bonds of 964 billion have been issued [2][16] Special Refinancing Bond - The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was 0 billion, and 251 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of the 20th week, the cumulative net financing was 1.6 trillion, with an issuance progress of 80% [2][29] Urban Investment Bond - The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 20th week (5/12 - 5/18) was -252 billion, and it is expected to be -346 billion in the 21st week (5/19 - 5/25). As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is approximately 10.5 trillion [2][32]

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure in April, with a notable improvement in tax revenue contributing to a more positive outlook for fiscal policy and spending [1][3][4]. Fiscal Revenue - In April, the general public budget revenue growth rate increased to 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue showing a significant improvement of 4.1 percentage points, marking the first positive growth this year [1][4]. - Cumulatively, tax revenue for the first four months remains at -2.1% year-on-year, with corporate income tax down by 3.1%, primarily due to low PPI [1][4][5]. - The performance of major tax categories in April was neutral, with corporate income tax contributing 1.21 percentage points to revenue growth, while personal income tax rose by 67.5% year-on-year, largely due to base effects [5][8]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure showed a more positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in April and a cumulative growth of 4.6% for the first four months, exceeding the annual target growth rate of 4.4% [1][8]. - The expenditure progress for the first four months reached 31.5%, the second highest level in recent years, driven by spending on social security, education, and infrastructure projects [1][8][9]. - The issuance of ordinary government bonds was significantly advanced, contributing to the increase in fiscal spending [8][9]. Broader Fiscal Context - The government fund revenue also turned positive in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, driven by land sales and expected recovery in government fund income [2][15]. - The government fund expenditure rose sharply by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating strong fiscal support for infrastructure and development projects [18][19]. - The overall fiscal revenue growth remains low, necessitating further measures to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, with a notable fiscal deficit of 2.65 trillion yuan in the first four months [3][19].

Group 1 - The overall fiscal situation shows signs of recovery, with broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates rebounding to -1.3% and 7.2% respectively for January-April, and April figures improving to 2.7% and 12.9% [1][3] - Tax revenue recovery and a slight rebound in the land market have contributed to the improvement in revenue, while special bond issuance and the initiation of special treasury bonds have supported expenditure growth [1][3] - The fiscal space for further stimulus remains, as economic growth shows resilience despite external shocks, although uncertainties in exports may pose challenges to fiscal balance [1] Group 2 - National general public budget revenue for January-April reached 8.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -0.4%, below the target growth of 0.1%, while April's revenue growth rose to 1.9% [3] - Central revenue turned positive with a growth rate of 1.6%, while local revenue decreased to 2.1%; tax revenue growth improved to 1.9% [3] - National fiscal expenditure for January-April was 9.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, exceeding the target growth of 4.4% [4] Group 3 - In April, the growth rates of value-added tax and consumption tax revenues declined, while corporate income tax growth significantly fell, and personal income tax saw a large increase of 67.5 percentage points [6] - Real estate-related tax revenues weakened, with both property tax and deed tax growth rates declining, although land value-added tax growth saw a slight narrowing of decline [6] Group 4 - In April, major expenditure categories showed mixed results, with transportation and technology spending growth exceeding 10 percentage points, while infrastructure spending's proportion continued to decline [8] - Government fund income growth narrowed to -6.7% for January-April, with April's growth turning positive at 8.1%, and land use rights transfer income growth rebounding to 4.3% [9] - Government fund expenditure growth increased to 17.7% for January-April, but remained below the target of 23.1%, with April's growth rising to 44.7% [9]