Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that global market risk appetite has significantly improved following the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trades, leading to new highs in various stock markets, including developed and emerging markets [1][2] - The primary driver of the recent global stock market rally is the increased dollar liquidity, which is closely linked to U.S. monetary policy and cross-border capital flows [2][3] - The dollar index has declined by 2.4% in the past quarter and 10% year-to-date, contributing to the warming of non-U.S. stock markets [3][6] Group 2 - The actual interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds have decreased, which influences both U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets, providing a foundation for risk sentiment to be released [6][7] - Global central banks have accelerated their monetary supply, with a notable increase in the growth rate of global central bank money supply by nearly 7 percentage points in the past quarter [7][10] - The cost of offshore dollar financing has decreased, indicating a more favorable liquidity environment for non-U.S. equity markets [10][12] Group 3 - There is a noticeable trend of foreign capital inflow into non-U.S. equity markets, with A-shares seeing a 0.75% increase in foreign ownership value compared to the end of last year [13][19] - Various Asian markets, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, have experienced net foreign inflows since July, contrasting with the net outflows observed over the past 12 months [19][20] - The article discusses how to measure market bubbles, particularly in the U.S. stock market, where concerns about the effectiveness of capital expenditures by tech giants are prevalent [20][22] Group 4 - The "Buffett Indicator" for the U.S. stock market has reached a historical high of 2.1, indicating a significant divergence from the economic output [25][28] - A comparison of current TTM P/E ratios shows that U.S. stocks, Indian stocks, and Vietnamese stocks have higher valuations, while Korean, A-shares, and British stocks are relatively lower [28][29] - The article highlights that the risk premium levels in developed markets are at historical lows, while emerging markets still exhibit higher risk premiums [31][32] Group 5 - The article concludes that the high valuation levels in global equity markets are reflective of abundant dollar liquidity and the potential vulnerabilities in both U.S. and non-U.S. markets due to economic cycles and TACO trades [39][40]

Group 1 - The core of the global market's risk appetite recovery is attributed to the loosening of dollar liquidity, with potential risks arising from changes in Federal Reserve policy or cross-border capital flows [3][5] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trades have led to increased confidence among investors, resulting in new highs for developed and emerging markets, including US, European, and Asian stocks [4][5] - The current environment of dollar liquidity is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and cross-border capital movements, impacting multiple markets and asset classes [5] Group 2 - Recent changes in dollar liquidity can be observed through five dimensions, including a significant decline in the dollar index, which has dropped 2.4% in the last quarter and 10% year-to-date [6][9] - The actual yield on US Treasury bonds has decreased by over 20 basis points since the peak in April, contributing to a more favorable risk sentiment [9] - Global central banks have accelerated their monetary supply, with a notable increase in the growth rate of global central bank money supply by nearly 7 percentage points in the last quarter [11] Group 3 - The cost of offshore dollar financing has decreased, indicating a more favorable liquidity environment for non-US equity markets [13] - Foreign capital inflows into non-US equity markets are becoming evident, with A-shares seeing a 0.75% increase in foreign ownership value compared to the end of last year [15] - In the broader non-US equity markets, foreign capital inflows have been observed in various Asian markets, contrasting with the net outflows seen over the past 12 months [19] Group 4 - The current AI wave has led to significant capital expenditures among tech giants, with an average capital expenditure growth rate of 18% from 2021 to 2024, raising concerns about the effectiveness of these investments [24] - The recent rise in US stocks has shown a barbell structure, with tech giants on one end and small-cap stocks on the other, reflecting a market pricing in economic resilience and policy risk reduction [27] - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the ratio of total market capitalization to nominal GDP, has reached a historical high of 2.1, indicating potential overvaluation in the US stock market [30][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recovery of global risk appetite and stock market increases are primarily driven by the loosening of dollar liquidity, with potential risks arising from changes in Federal Reserve policies or cross-border capital flows [2][4] - The article discusses the phenomenon of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading, which has led to increased confidence among investors and a bullish atmosphere in various global markets, including US, European, and Asian stocks [4][5] Group 2 - The improvement in global risk appetite is attributed to the loosening of dollar liquidity, which is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and cross-border capital flows [5][6] - The dollar index has significantly declined, dropping 2.4% in the past quarter and 10% year-to-date, which has positively impacted non-US stock markets [7][9] - The actual interest rates of US Treasury bonds have decreased, providing a foundation for risk sentiment release, with a decline of over 20 basis points since April [9][11] - Global central banks have accelerated monetary supply, with a notable increase in the growth rate of global central bank money supply by nearly 7 percentage points in the past quarter [11][14] - The cost of offshore dollar financing has decreased, indicating a more favorable liquidity environment for non-US equity markets [14][16] Group 3 - There is a noticeable trend of foreign capital inflow into non-US equity markets, with A-shares seeing a 0.75% increase in foreign ownership value compared to the end of last year [16][19] - Various Asian markets, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, have experienced net inflows of foreign capital since July, contrasting with the previous 12 months of net outflows [19][20] Group 4 - The article highlights concerns regarding the effectiveness of capital expenditures by technology giants amid the current AI boom, with an average capital expenditure growth rate of 18% projected for tech stocks from 2021 to 2024 [20][22] - The current market structure shows a "barbell" effect, with significant gains in both large tech companies and small-cap stocks, indicating a potential increase in market fragility [22][26] Group 5 - The "Buffett Indicator," which measures the ratio of total market capitalization to nominal GDP, has reached a historical high of 2.1, suggesting a potential overvaluation of the market [26][28] - Comparisons of risk premiums across global indices reveal that US and Indian stocks have low risk premiums, while A-shares and Korean stocks maintain higher levels [31][34] - The article concludes that the high valuation levels across major stock indices, combined with the low risk premiums in developed markets, indicate a potential bubble in the current market environment [39]

Group 1: Market Trends and Drivers - Recent global market risk appetite has significantly improved, with many developed and emerging market indices reaching new highs, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks entering a bull market atmosphere[2] - The decline of the US dollar index by 10% this year has notably boosted non-US stock markets[2] - The actual yield on US Treasury bonds has decreased, alleviating valuation pressure on global assets[2] - Global central banks have accelerated monetary supply growth, with 76 rate cuts this year compared to only 19 rate hikes, particularly benefiting non-US markets[2] Group 2: Valuation Concerns - The "Buffett Indicator" (total market capitalization/GDP) for US stocks has reached a historical high of 2.1, approximately 2.9 standard deviations above the long-term average, indicating potential overvaluation[3] - The capital expenditure growth rate for tech giants is projected at 18% from 2021 to 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth and potential valuation corrections[3] - The current valuation levels of major markets show that US, Indian, Vietnamese, and German stocks are at absolute highs, while risk premiums for Indian, US, and Vietnamese stocks are relatively low[4] Group 3: Market Sensitivities and Risks - The high non-fundamental premium in markets like A-shares and German stocks suggests increased sensitivity to potential reversals in dollar liquidity or changes in capital flows[4] - If the Federal Reserve's policies or cross-border capital flows change, markets with high non-fundamental premiums may be more vulnerable to corrections[4] - The report highlights the potential for a "shrinking circle" effect in global markets if risk appetite declines, particularly affecting markets with high non-fundamental premiums[4]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged as relatively mild inflation data clears the way for interest rate cuts after the weakening of the labor market, and the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable. However, in the short term, the resonance upward movement of the Chinese and US equity markets has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and the upward movement of the gold price may still need to build momentum. The price of spot gold is relatively mild below 3500, and its elasticity may increase after breaking through this level. The recovery of risk appetite brings greater short - term elasticity to silver, but the pressure at the 40 - dollar mark is still obvious, and its breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Fed could have cut interest rates in June and July, there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut and a series of consecutive interest rate cuts, the current Fed interest rate should be further lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, the Fed's interest rate is restrictive, he is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, the Fed's spending is not supervised, he is considering recruiting relevant talents from the private sector to serve in the Fed, he will not support stopping the release of employment reports, and the Fed may cut interest rates in advance if the data is accurate [2]. - Russia responded to the "Putin - Biden meeting" regarding territorial issues. Russian Foreign Ministry Deputy Spokesperson Fadeyev stated that Russia's territorial composition is determined in the national constitution, and the goals of the Russian delegation in the Russia - US leader negotiations will be based entirely on national interests [2]. - Trump's list of candidates for Fed Chairman has expanded to 11. Two government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to replace Fed Chairman Powell when his term expires next May, including three previously unannounced candidates. Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview all candidates, screen the list, and submit the final list to the president for a decision, but no timetable was provided [3]. Price Logic - Yesterday, the gold price rose slightly, and silver recorded a larger increase. US inflation rose as expected, and the impact of tariffs was limited. After the weakening of the labor market, relatively mild inflation data clears the way for interest rate cuts, and the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable. Fed Chairman Powell may give a clearer statement at the global central bank annual meeting next week. The dominant logic in the past quarter, "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest rate cut expectations", is shifting to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest rate cut expectations". The change of the Fed leadership may bring a more dovish path in the long - term and a re - consideration of the Fed's independence [4]. Outlook - This week, the range of spot London gold is expected to be between 3340 and 3500 US dollars per ounce, and the range of spot London silver is expected to be between 37 and 40 US dollars per ounce [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rise in US inflation in Q3 is in line with expectations. Under the dual pressure of deteriorating non - farm data and personnel changes, some Fed voting members have turned significantly dovish, and the moderate rise in inflation has limited interference with the interest - rate cut expectations. - The July non - farm data is an important turning point for market sentiment. The dominant logic is shifting from "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest - rate cut expectations" to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest - rate cut expectations". The Fed's leadership change may bring a more dovish long - term path and a re - evaluation of the Fed's independence. - The report maintains a bullish view on gold. It is expected that the upward trend of spot gold will be moderate below $3500, and the upward momentum may increase after breaking through this level. The movement of silver is following that of gold again, with obvious resistance at the $40 mark, and a breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][3]. 3. Summary by Section Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent stated that President Trump's tariff policy aims to bring manufacturing back to the US, and relevant trade work is expected to be basically completed by the end of October. He also hopes that the next Fed Chairman will gain market trust and have "forward - looking thinking". - China National Rare Earth Group issued a statement clarifying that it has never cooperated, negotiated, or planned with relevant institutions or units regarding the so - called "rare - earth RMB stablecoin". The information was maliciously fabricated by lawbreakers. - The short positions in US small - cap stocks have reached the highest level since 2017. The notional value of non - commercial short contracts for the Russell 2000 index futures has exceeded $16 billion this month, and this position has doubled since May and further increased after the latest weak employment data in the US [2]. Price Logic - The decline in precious metal prices yesterday was due to two factors. Firstly, the US clarified the rumor of imposing tariffs on gold last Friday night, and the price difference between COMEX and LBMA gold narrowed significantly, weakening the sentiment in the US market. Secondly, the expected rise in the US CPI in July, with the market consensus expecting a 0.31% month - on - month increase and about 3.1% year - on - year increase in core CPI, and the simultaneous rise of the US dollar index, brought short - term downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Outlook - The expected trading range for London gold this week is between $3340 and $3500 per ounce, and for London silver, it is between $37 and $40 per ounce [6].

油气股午后拉升，截至发稿，山东墨龙（002490）(00568)涨16.83%，报4.72港元；MI能源(01555)涨 12.82%，报0.044港元；百勤油服(02178)涨10%，报0.077港元；吉星新能源(03395)涨5.56%，报0.475港 元。 华泰期货指出，在特朗普宣布缩短俄乌停火观察期后，油价走高，该行认为这对于特朗普又是一个两难 问题，为了俄乌停火需要制裁俄罗斯，但又将导致油价上涨通胀飙升，不排除又是一个TACO交易，当 前原油基本面虽然较为坚挺，但8月开始将逐步转为需求淡季，基本面并不支持油价走高。 消息面上，据报道，特朗普称对俄罗斯设定10-12天的新截止日期，若没有达成协议，将对俄罗斯石油 实施二级制裁。受此影响，隔夜国际油价显著走高，WTI原油期货收涨3.75%，报69.21美元/桶。布伦特 原油期货收涨3.53%，报72.51美元/桶。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil and gas stocks experienced a significant rise in the afternoon trading session, influenced by geopolitical developments regarding Russia and oil sanctions [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Shandong Molong (00568) increased by 16.83%, trading at 4.72 HKD [1] - MI Energy (01555) rose by 12.82%, trading at 0.044 HKD [1] - Baikin Oilfield Services (02178) saw a 10% increase, trading at 0.077 HKD [1] - Jixing New Energy (03395) gained 5.56%, trading at 0.475 HKD [1] Group 2: Oil Price Movement - International oil prices surged significantly overnight, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 3.75% to 69.21 USD per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 3.53%, reaching 72.51 USD per barrel [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Trump set a new deadline of 10-12 days for Russia to reach an agreement, threatening secondary sanctions on Russian oil if not met [1] - Huatai Futures noted that while the oil market fundamentals are currently strong, a shift to a demand lull is expected starting in August, which may not support higher oil prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - After Trump announced the shortening of the cease - fire observation period between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices rose, presenting a dilemma for Trump. Sanctioning Russia for a cease - fire would lead to rising oil prices and soaring inflation. The current oil fundamentals are strong but will turn into the off - season from August, not supporting higher oil prices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.50 to $69.21 per barrel, a 3.75% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose $2.47 to $72.51 per barrel, a 3.53% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.49% at 528 yuan per barrel [1] - Trump believes that North Sea oil is a treasure for the UK, and the high taxes are hard to understand. He thinks drilling companies should be quickly incentivized to exploit this wealth, which can bring huge wealth to the UK and significantly reduce people's energy costs [1] - Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said that Russia noted Trump's statement on shortening the deadline for a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Russia is still committed to the peaceful resolution of the conflict and safeguarding its interests. Regarding Russia - US relations, Russia hopes to accelerate the normalization process, but the current situation does not allow for a strategic stability dialogue, and a Putin - Trump meeting is not on the agenda. Russia and the US have not contacted each other on extending the New START Treaty [1] - The Kuwaiti oil minister is optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market. OPEC+ aims to ensure energy security and market balance, and its decisions are based on market developments. Kuwait supports efforts to stabilize the international oil market [1] Investment Logic - After Trump's announcement on the cease - fire observation period, rising oil prices pose a dilemma for him. Sanctioning Russia may lead to inflation, and the current fundamentals do not support high oil prices as the demand off - season is coming [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Iranian oil, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3]

上周A股市场在美股、港股震荡上行的基础上延续上涨态势，整体赚钱效应的结构化特征仍然明显。周 内市场日均成交额约18，487亿元，资金方面微观流动性分化。风格上，整体成长优于价值，小盘跑赢 大盘。行业上，建筑材料、煤炭、钢铁等表现靠前，银行、通信、公用事业等表现靠后。 宏观展望："反内卷"行业政策逐步落地，关注需求端持续性 国内方面，整体政策关注度仍集中在"反内卷"政策在各行各业开花的阶段。"反内卷"政策的核心在于： 上游抓价格下游抓质量、减少财政出口退税在内的政府补贴、提高公用事业价格。在政策带动下，上游 制造短暂走强，钢铁高炉开工、原铝出货的同比表现均走强，建筑钢材、玻璃的贸易商采购量也明显增 长，预计会对7月整体工业增加值带来提振作用。 从其他经济分项来看，整体景气依旧有韧性。但近两周需求侧受到台风天气影响，线下消费、基建、出 口强度短暂回落。预计7月出口仍能保持一定增速的正增长，但进入到8月份整体出口压力可能会明显增 强。三季度出口能否继续为宏观经济提供支持，将是市场对宏观经济能否从转冷承压预期转向向上修正 预期的关键。另外，地产成交仍然偏弱，市场成交面积增速下降，一线城市韧性相对较强，二线城市相 对偏 ...