Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver are strengthening. The market's risk aversion demand has increased before the new tariff deadline on August 1st. The weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has provided upward momentum for gold. Although the impact of the US tariff policy on economic data is smaller than expected, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is showing strength due to the boost from industrial products. In the near term, there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of Trump's threats being realized, and gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 are 790.16, 795.02, 9431.00, and 9462.00 respectively. The price increases are 7.66, 8.30, 65.00, and 50.00, with corresponding increases of 0.98%, 1.06%, 0.69%, and 0.53%. The trading volumes are 25775, 31505, 85020, and 101074 respectively, and the open interests are 42972, 104970, 117554, and 220226 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 780, 790.91, and 9368.00 respectively. The price increases are 3, 7.83, and 142.00, with corresponding increases of 0.39%, 1.00%, and 1.54%. The price of London Silver is 39.27 with an increase of 0.37 and an increase rate of 0.95% [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 28,857 kg and 1,199,046 kg respectively, with a decrease of 5,420.00 kg in silver inventory. The COMEX gold and silver inventories are 37,488,075 and 497,984,759 respectively, with increases of 295,931.68 and 339196 respectively [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 97.3550, 6309.62, 4.35, 68.67, and 7.1705 respectively. The changes are - 0.49%, 0.06%, - 0.68%, 0.01%, and - 0.01% respectively [2]. 3.5 Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton. The CFTC speculative net positions in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 respectively [2]. 3.6 Macroeconomic News - **Trade Agreements**: US President Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia. The US will lower the tariff on Philippine goods from 20% to 19%, and the Philippines will open its market to the US with zero - tariff. Indonesia will remove 99% of its tariff barriers against the US, and all Indonesian products exported to the US will be subject to a 19% tariff. Indonesia will also supply key minerals to the US and sign major agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars to purchase Boeing aircraft, US agricultural products, and US energy [3]. - **Fed - related News**: Trump said that Fed Chairman Powell is about to leave office, and he believes that the interest rate is too high and should be lowered by 3 percentage points or more. The Trump administration has pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that tariff revenues are "huge" and may account for 1% of the US GDP, and are expected to reach $2.8 trillion in the next decade. He also supports Powell to complete his term and calls for an internal review of his non - monetary policy functions. A US congressman has accused Powell of perjury regarding the Fed building renovation and called for criminal charges [3].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report covers various industries including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping [1][9][11] - It analyzes market performance, price trends, and influencing factors for different commodities and financial instruments [2][3][9] - Macroeconomic factors such as US tariff policies, central bank actions, and economic data are considered [2][9][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The Chinese foreign exchange market shows resilience despite complex external situations [1] - Gold and silver may continue to be strong due to market risk aversion and long - term drivers [2][14] - Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC production, US inventory data, and trade tensions [3][11] - Steel prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand balance and cost factors [4][20] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Main News - **International News**: Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, including tariff adjustments and market access [5] - **Domestic News**: At the end of Q2, RMB real estate loan balances increased, while personal housing loan balances decreased slightly [6] - **Industry News**: Russia maintains its forecast for grain production and expects significant grain exports [7] 2. Outer - market Daily Returns - Various outer - market indices and commodities showed different price changes on July 22 compared to July 21, including gains in the S&P 500, London gold, and losses in ICE Brent crude [8] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties **Financial** - **Stock Index**: A - shares are considered to have high investment value in the medium - to - long term, with different indices having different characteristics [9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Long - term treasury bond prices are falling, and market funds are relatively stable. External policies and economic data affect the market [10] **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling, affected by OPEC production increases, US inventory changes, and trade tensions [3][11] - **Methanol**: Short - term prices are expected to be bullish due to changes in production load and inventory [12] - **Rubber**: Prices may slowly rise due to supply - side factors, while demand - side support is weak [13] **Metal** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are likely to remain strong, but there are risks of Trump's tariff threats being realized [2][14] - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as processing fees and downstream demand [15] - **Zinc**: Prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to factors like US tariffs and production [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term prices may be strong, but there is no basis for medium - term reversal [17] **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: Prices may be strong in the short term due to demand support and supply - demand imbalances in the medium term [19] - **Steel**: Prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand and cost factors [4][20] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may rise further in the short term but are likely to peak after late August [21] **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, affected by US soybean conditions and domestic supply [22] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices may be supported, and the overall market is expected to be in a volatile pattern [23] **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a weak state, and the peak of the seasonal peak season may be approaching [24]

Group 1: Tariff Risks - The U.S. may implement a second round of tariff increases by late July to early August, depending on negotiation outcomes[6] - If U.S. financial markets show limited reaction to tariff actions, President Trump is likely to proceed with the scheduled tariff increases[6] - The focus on U.S. industry tariffs, particularly under Section 232, is expected to rise, with new investigations announced for drones and polysilicon[6] Group 2: Middle East Stability - The political environment in Israel is deteriorating, increasing the risk of instability in the Middle East[6] - Recent withdrawals from the ruling coalition by right-wing parties may lead to a loss of parliamentary majority for Netanyahu's government[6] - If the Israeli parliament is not dissolved by the end of July, there is a risk of aggressive policies being adopted by the Netanyahu government to salvage its political standing[6]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the global stock market experienced a rapid rebound in Q2 2023, with US and German stocks reaching historical highs, but there are concerns about potential significant pullbacks in Q3 due to high sentiment and valuation levels [6][8][10] - The rebound since April 2023 is primarily attributed to the recovery of expectations following Trump's TACO, with PE valuation recovery being a major contributor, alongside a decline in ERP and upward revisions in EPS [6][8] - The report notes that the liquidity shock in US Treasury bonds in summer 2023 led to significant pressure on risk assets, with the issuance scale exceeding market expectations and Fitch downgrading US debt ratings [8][10] Group 2 - In summer 2024, a rise in unemployment triggered recession expectations, leading to a reversal of carry trades and liquidity shocks in the market, with the US CPI falling below expectations and impacting bond yields [16][19] - The report indicates that the potential economic recession pressure is a major concern for the market, with the performance of tech stocks and consumer stocks being closely monitored [16][19] - The report emphasizes that the AI industry's revenue is meeting expectations, but traditional business performance is slowing down, affecting profit margins [16][19] Group 3 - The report identifies three potential risks for global risk assets in the second half of 2025, including the gradual realization of previously ignored tariff impacts, the rising risk of interest rates due to fiscal expansion, and the uncertainty stemming from Trump's policy shifts [21][22][32] - The microeconomic impacts of tariffs are expected to become more evident in corporate earnings reports, particularly regarding how companies manage the costs associated with tariffs [22][25] - The report discusses the implications of fiscal expansion in the US and Japan, highlighting the potential for increased fiscal deficits and the challenges posed by reliance on short-term debt financing [32][34]

Summary of Economic Implications of Possible Tariff Scenarios Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the implications of proposed tariff increases in the United States, particularly under the Trump administration's trade policies, which have raised the effective tariff rate (ETR) significantly. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Increases and Proposals - The US's effective tariff rate has increased by approximately 9 percentage points (pp) so far, with proposals for higher "reciprocal" tariffs on several countries, including a 50% sectoral tariff on copper and a potential rise in baseline tariff rates to 15-20% [2][5][6]. - The expectation is for the ETR to rise by around 14pp by the end of the current year, with further increases anticipated in 2026 and 2027, leading to a total increase of 17pp by 2027 [2][6]. Inflation and Consumer Prices - The proposed tariffs are estimated to boost core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by about 1.7% cumulatively over the next 2-3 years, with revised expectations for year-over-year core PCE inflation of 3.3% in December 2025, 2.7% in 2026, and 2.4% in 2027 [2][21]. - The passthrough rate of higher costs into consumer prices is now expected to be around 65%, down from 70% previously, indicating a slower adjustment to increased import costs [10][11]. Economic Growth Impact - The tariffs are projected to lower year-over-year GDP growth by approximately 1pp in 2025, 0.4pp in 2026, and 0.3pp in 2027, reflecting a tax-like effect on real spending across the economy [2][36]. - A cumulative GDP hit from the tariff scenarios is estimated at around 2%, with the most extreme scenario suggesting a 3.3% cumulative GDP hit, translating to a 1.7pp increase in the unemployment rate by 2027 [3][52]. Alternative Scenarios - Four alternative tariff scenarios were explored, ranging from a downside scenario with lower tariffs to an upside scenario with significantly higher tariffs, indicating a weighted-average ETR increase of 16pp in 2025 [39][41]. - The downside scenario could result in a 1.4% boost to core PCE, while the upside scenario could lead to a nearly 3% increase by the end of 2027 [44]. Uncertainty and Business Investment - Heightened uncertainty from tariff changes is expected to dampen business investment, although recent measures of policy uncertainty have decreased, suggesting a smaller drag on growth than previously anticipated [27][36]. - The analysis indicates that financial conditions have loosened despite tariff increases, which may mitigate some negative impacts on capital expenditures [32][36]. Conclusion - The overall outlook suggests lower growth and higher inflation in 2026 and 2027 compared to previous forecasts, with risks tilted towards higher tariffs and inflation, and downside risks to growth through 2027 [57]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may adopt a wait-and-see approach to policy in light of potential tariff increases, with aggressive rate cuts becoming necessary if extreme tariff scenarios materialize [57].

7月23日，亚洲开发银行发布《2025年亚洲发展展望（7月版）》，将亚太地区发展中经济体2025年经济 增长预期下调至4.7%，2026年增长预期也下调至4.6%。亚行称，此次下调主要受美国关税政策、全球 贸易不确定性以及国内需求疲软的影响。 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the tariff policies of the Trump administration may significantly increase future construction costs for homes in the U.S., exacerbating the existing housing crisis [1] - It is projected that if these tariffs continue, particularly on imports from Canada, the average cost to build a home in the U.S. could rise by approximately $14,000 by the end of 2027 [1] - Key building materials such as lumber, steel, and copper are heavily imported from Canada, with 69% of lumber, 25% of steel, and 18% of copper sourced from there in 2023 [1] - States like Texas, Florida, and California are expected to be the most affected due to their heavy reliance on imported construction materials [1]

Group 1: Trade Agreement Overview - The United States and Japan have reached a significant trade agreement, described by President Trump as potentially the largest trade deal in history [1] - The agreement includes a 15% "reciprocal" tariff on Japanese goods imported into the U.S. and Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. [1] - The deal is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs and opens Japanese markets to U.S. products such as automobiles and agricultural goods [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Japanese yen initially rose by 0.3% against the U.S. dollar but later lost most of its gains, settling at 146.46 [2] - Japanese government bond futures fell by 70 basis points, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 4 basis points to 3.12% [2] - Analysts suggest that the initial strength of the yen reflects market sentiment that the 15% tariff is a favorable outcome for Japan [2] Group 3: Political Implications - The trade agreement may serve as a stabilizing factor for Japanese Prime Minister Kishida's administration, which recently lost its parliamentary majority [4] - Kishida indicated that he would assess the progress of tariff negotiations before deciding on his continuation in office [4] Group 4: Negotiation Context - The negotiations were described as tense, with both sides acknowledging the challenges faced [5] - Key points of contention included rice trade and the automotive industry, with Trump highlighting Japan's limited imports of U.S. rice and cars [5] - The agreement alleviates the threat of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, potentially giving Japan a competitive edge over U.S. suppliers [5] Group 5: Trade Statistics - Japan is the fifth-largest source of imports for the U.S., exporting $148 billion worth of goods, primarily automobiles and machinery [6] - Prior to the agreement, Japanese goods faced a potential 24% tariff, which was later reduced to a minimum of 10% [6] - The agreement is a continuation of the 2019 U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement, which expanded the range of duty-free goods [6]

首席点评 ： 我国外汇市场表现韧性，美国关税政策仍存扰动 美国总统特朗普发文表示，刚刚与日本达成了一项大规模协议，这可能是有史以来最大的一笔协议。日 本将向美国投资 5500 亿美元，美国将获得 90% 的利润。这项协议将创造成千上万的就业机会 —— 这 是前所未有的。也许最重要的是，日本将开放其国家的贸易，包括汽车和卡车，大米和某些其他农产 品，以及其他东西。日本将向美国支付 15% 的对等关税。 7 月 22 日，国新办就 2025 年上半年外汇收 支数据情况举行新闻发布会。国家外汇管理局副局长李斌在回答中国证券报记者提问时表示，今年以 来，外汇形势复杂多变，风险挑战明显增加。面对外部冲击，我国外汇市场顶住压力，运行平稳，表现 出较强韧性。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收跌 0.55% 报 503.8 元 / 桶。贵金属方面，沪金收涨 0.91% 报 792.94 元 / 克，沪银涨 0.75% 报 9453 元 / 千克。 重点品种：黄金、原油、钢材 黄金： 金银走强。 8 月 1 日新的关税大限前市场避险需求有所升温，此外美元和美债收益率的走弱为 黄金提供上行驱动。此前传闻称特朗普考虑解雇鲍威尔，后特 ...

特朗普称， 将对菲律宾征收19%的关税。 菲律宾将对美国开放市场，并实行零关税。 特朗普还称，或许最重要的是，日本将开放其市场进行贸易，包括汽车、卡车、大米以及其他 部分农产品和商品。日本将向美国支付15%的对等关税。 截至目前，日本方面暂无回应。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易 协议： 对日关税税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资。 北京时间7月23日早上，日元兑美元跳水。 近期 日本市场波动引发市场关注。 据21世纪经济报道，受访专家普遍认为，未来日元将进入 贬值通道。 南开大学日本研究院教授、副院长 张玉来表示，由于日本更倾向于走财政扩张道 路，再加上日本面临美国的关税政策，这些都将推动市场卖出日元。 （→ 详情 ） 特朗普称美菲达成贸易协议 特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，美国刚刚与日本达成了一项"巨大的"协议，可能是 有史以来最大的一项。他表示，按照其指示，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元， 美国将获得其 中90%的利润 。这项协议将创造数十万个就业岗位。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上 ...