| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向将主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【520-560】 | | LPG | | 成本端油价高位震荡，近期市场不确定性上升，波动加剧，液化气跟随油 | | | 震荡 | 价震荡蓄势。成本端油价高位震荡；下游化工需求有所回升，PDH、MTBE | | | | 开工率上升；库存端利好，厂库和港口库存均下降。策略：波动加剧，双 | | | | 买期权。PG【4300-4400】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 社会库存去化，停产比例上升至 16.4%，期现齐涨，华北基差为-48（环比 | | | | -30）。本周检修力度超预期，预计产量下降。农膜需求淡季，但近期市场 | | | | 情绪好转，下游阶段性逢低补库，关注后续库存去化力度。策略：检修叠 | | | | 加成本支撑，短期盘面维持偏强运行，空单减持。基差维持负值，上 ...

周一黄金市场冲高回落，因市场多头获利了结影响以及市场在等待美联储政策声明，现货黄金市场昨日 表现为冲高回落并维持在区间内震荡，昨日最高至3451.19美元/盎司，最低至3382.76美元/盎司，最终 收盘于3385.14美元/盎司，本交易日亚洲早盘开盘后市场小幅上扬，目前交投于3393.00美元/盎司附 近。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币 政策的动向和美债收益率情况。 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于主升情绪，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.180-36.550，操作上可在这个 区间内高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破36.180美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为35.700- 35.300美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破36.550美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及36.800-37.200美 元/盎司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空间） 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应 根据自己的风险承受能力、投资目标和市场情况做出决策。 亚洲早盘策略： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to have a strong oscillation. The short - term uncertainty remains high, and it has high strategic allocation value in the long run [1]. - Silver is predicted to have a high - level oscillation, following the characteristics of gold and base metals [1]. - Copper is likely to continue to rebound and oscillate upward, and is still favored in the medium and long term [1]. - Zinc is expected to rebound, but overall it is still weak. There is an opportunity to short at high prices in the long run [1]. - Lead's price rebound is under pressure due to cost support and inventory accumulation [1]. - Tin's price is under pressure after a continuous rebound because of slow复产 and weak smelter start - up [1]. - Aluminum's price is under pressure with weakening overseas disturbances and emerging downstream consumption off - season characteristics [1]. - Nickel's price is weak due to rising overseas shipments and high domestic inventory [1]. - Industrial silicon's price is bearish because of increasing supply and weak downstream demand [1]. - Lithium carbonate's price is bearish due to continuous supply surplus pressure and increasing inventory [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold opened high and closed low as the short - term risk - aversion sentiment declined due to Iran's softening stance [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Iran hopes to end the hostile state, US data is weak, and the long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider making long - term preparations for gold. Control the position of silver due to its high elasticity [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper continued to rebound [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight, domestic production is increasing, there are concerns about overseas soft squeeze - out risks, and green copper demand offsets traditional demand shortages [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short - term long positions. Be cautious about risks. Long - term optimism about copper remains [5]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded in a V - shape and stopped falling to stabilize [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc ore supply is loosening, domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weakening [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. Look for opportunities to short at high prices in the long term [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and alumina was under pressure [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost is decreasing, inventory is changing, and demand is entering the off - season. For alumina, the supply is in surplus [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were weak, and stainless steel was under pressure [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore supply is increasing, domestic supply is in surplus, and stainless steel inventory is rising [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased positions and declined [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply surplus pressure of lithium carbonate remains, and the inventory is expected to increase further [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [14].

2025年06月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期价格承压 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：聚酯大规模检修，中期价格承压 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG减仓 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：地缘问题反复，震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随原油高位震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 11 | | PP：价格上涨，刚需成交 | 13 | | 烧碱：现货承压，期货补贴水 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：短期偏强运行 | 19 | | 尿素：地缘问题反复，偏强运行 | 21 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 23 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：地缘不确定性增加，盘面支撑走弱 | 25 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：夜盘回撤，预计短期强势暂缓 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：短线转弱，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅收窄 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡走势，10空单持有 | ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-17 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-06-17 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 5 月宏观数据公布，社零数据表现亮眼 观点分享： 昨日公布了最新的国内宏观经济数据，5 月社会消费品零售同比增 6.4%，创 2023 年 12 月来最高；5 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，新能源汽车、工业机器人产量较快增长； 1-5 月份城镇固定资产投资增长 3.7%。分领域看，基础设施投资同比增长 5.6%，制造业投 资增长 8.5%，房地产开发投资下降 10.7%；1-5 月房地产开发投资同比下降 10.7%，5 月 70 城房价：各线城市二手房价环比降幅扩大，一线、二线新房房价环比转降。其中最亮眼的当 属社会消费品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，远超市场预期的 5%。消费品以旧换新政策持续显效， 限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分 别增长 53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。汽车类零售同比增长 1.1%，石油及制品类零售下 滑7%。可以看到消费市场正在逐步恢复活力，尤其是在节假日和 ...

据北京日报，6月16日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有记者提问，据报道，美国驻巴拿马大使馆称，美政府将与巴拿马公安部合作，未来两年内使用"安 全的美国技术"安装7座新电信塔，取代此前安装的华为设备。该使馆称"美正在努力对抗中国在西半 球的不良影响，让美洲大陆更强大、更安全。"巴拿马总统穆利诺回应表示，请美国使馆停止对巴政 府所做自主决策公开发表单方面声明，美方无权就巴政府决策发表意见。中方对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆表示，美国长期在拉美和加勒比搞监听监控，搞网络攻击，给西半球带来不良影响，让美洲大 陆上的国家感到不安全。中国一贯支持包括巴拿马在内的拉美和加勒比国家，坚持独立自主，反对霸 权、霸凌和外来干涉。 郭嘉昆强调，中国同拉美和加勒比国家开展友好合作，始终秉持相互尊重、平等互利、开放包容、合 作共赢的原则，从不寻求"势力范围"，不搞地缘竞争，更不会胁迫他国选边站队。 "拉美和加勒比不是谁家的后院，美方应收起颐指气使的霸道嘴脸，停止将经贸科技问题政治化，停 止干涉他国内政，损害别国主权独立，停止胁迫别国选边站队、限制对话合作，把精力多用在增进地 区和平稳定和发展繁荣的事上。"郭嘉昆说。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting oil price forecasts from various investment banks, highlighting the geopolitical tensions and their impact on oil prices, with predictions ranging from bearish to bullish scenarios. Group 1: Price Predictions - Citibank indicates that Israel's actions complicate Trump's efforts to lower oil prices, expecting energy prices to remain elevated for some time [8] - Goldman Sachs maintains that oil supply from the Middle East will not be disrupted, forecasting WTI and Brent crude prices to drop to $55 and $59 per barrel by Q4 2025, and further down to $52 and $56 by 2026 [8] - Morgan Stanley raises its oil price forecast by up to $10, adjusting Q3 Brent crude price expectations to $67.50 per barrel [8] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Westpac believes that oil prices will dip to the lower end of the $60 to $65 range in Q3, potentially falling below $60 in Q4 [8] - CIBC suggests that if regime change becomes a core goal for Israel, Iran may not prioritize maintaining stable crude oil supply [8] - Morgan Chase warns that an attack on Iran could drive oil prices up to $120 per barrel and increase the US CPI to 5% [8] Group 3: Speculative Levels - Spartan Capital notes that geopolitical turmoil is pushing oil prices beyond current fundamentals, recommending short positions if prices exceed $80 per barrel [8] - Dutch Bank states that significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could elevate oil prices to $120 [8] - OCBC Bank suggests that if the situation in Iran escalates into a larger regional conflict, Brent crude prices could reach $120 [8]

黄金回调位置应看到哪里？ 黄金创新高后回落！地缘政治升温持续，回调位置应看到哪里？交易学院正在直播，点击立即观看>>> 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The importance of geopolitical news has overshadowed the light economic data schedule and the upcoming 20-year Treasury auction by the U.S. Treasury [1] Group 1 - The uncertain environment may complicate the auction of 20-year Treasury bonds compared to the well-received auctions of 10-year and 30-year bonds last week [1]

Group 1: Silver Futures Performance - On June 16, the main silver futures in Shanghai reported at 8802 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.18% [1] - The opening price for the day was 8801 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 8848 CNY and a low of 8789 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - Trump indicated that the U.S. may still intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, stating that if Iran attacks the U.S., it will respond with unprecedented force [2] - The U.S. one-year inflation rate expectation for June is initially set at 5.1%, compared to a forecast of 6.4% and a previous value of 6.60% [2] - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for June is 60.5, exceeding the forecast of 53.5 and the previous value of 52.2 [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Haitong Futures noted that despite gold not breaking out of its top range, COMEX gold closed at a historical high of 3452.6 USD last week [3] - Silver's upward momentum has slowed after a significant rally, with the gold-silver ratio quickly retreating to around 90 [3] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated following Israel's large-scale airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a spike in WTI crude oil prices by 13% and a concurrent rise in gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - U.S. CPI and PPI data for May showed inflation below market expectations, with core CPI remaining below expectations for four consecutive months, indicating reduced inflation risks [3] - The continued depreciation of the dollar has been observed, with the weekly closing price reaching a near three-year low [3] - The first meeting of the China-U.S. trade negotiation mechanism concluded with both sides agreeing on a framework to implement the consensus from the leaders' call [3] - Although tariff negotiations have not yet propelled gold prices further, the weak dollar and geopolitical factors suggest that gold is likely to rise rather than fall [3] - Short-term focus is on whether gold can break the key level of 3500 USD, with the COMEX price range adjusted to 3200-3600 USD, and a strategy of buying on dips for gold and silver is recommended [3]