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镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250603
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 07:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **Likely Factors**: Weekly decline in Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel inventories, reduction in domestic stainless - steel social total inventory, and inventory depletion supports prices; firm nickel ore prices, stable and rising prices of nickel iron and intermediates, and cost - side support [2] - **Negative Factors**: High - level refined nickel production, rising global inventories, and the continuation of the pattern of strong supply and weak demand; overall weak spot demand, short - term restocking followed by a dull trading volume, and insufficient demand improvement [2] - **Trading Consultation Viewpoint**: The supply - demand contradiction has not deepened, inventory depletion is unsustainable, and the short - term will maintain a range - bound pattern [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 1,070 yuan (-0.88%); LME Nickel 3M is 15,305 dollars/ton, down 265 dollars (-1.51%); the trading volume is 145,554 lots, up 93,246 lots (178.26%); the position volume is 94,854 lots, up 65,523 lots (223.4%); the warehouse receipt number is 22,057 tons, down 193 tons (-0.87%) [3] - **Stainless - Steel Futures**: The latest value of stainless - steel main contract is 12,685 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan (-1%); the trading volume is 124,523 lots, up 25,621 lots (25.91%); the position volume is 90,669 lots, down 1,757 lots (-1.90%); the warehouse receipt number is 129,990 tons, down 9,131 tons (-6.56%) [3] - **Nickel Spot**: The latest value of Jinchuan Nickel is 123,525 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.73%); the latest value of imported nickel is 121,175 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan (0.66%) [3] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory is 41,553 tons, down 836 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,310 tons, up 930 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 967.5 tons, down 6.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, up 1,907.5 tons [3][5] 2. Charts and Graphs - **Nickel and Stainless - Steel Futures Price Trends**: Include the price trends of Shanghai Nickel futures main contract, LME Nickel (3 - month) electronic disk, and stainless - steel futures main contract [7][8] - **Nickel Spot Average Price Trend**: Shows the average price trends of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [10] - **Supply and Inventory Trends**: Include the monthly production seasonality of Chinese refined nickel, the total monthly supply of Chinese primary nickel (including imports), domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans), and LME nickel inventory [12][13] - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - Related Trends**: Include the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), Chinese port nickel ore inventory by port, Chinese nickel iron monthly production seasonality, and Indonesian nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality [14][17][20] - **Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel - Related Trends**: Include the premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate over primary nickel (plates), the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, and the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China [22][24] - **Stainless - Steel - Related Trends**: Include the profit margin seasonality of Chinese 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils, stainless - steel monthly production seasonality, and stainless - steel inventory seasonality [27][29][31]
黄金白银原油罕见同步大涨,背后逻辑是什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 05:15
Group 1: Market Overview - The international commodity market experienced a rare synchronous movement, with gold prices surging 2.8% to exceed $3,380 per ounce, silver rising 5.32% to $34.73 per ounce, and oil prices increasing by 3.7% for WTI and 3.63% for Brent, reaching three-month highs [1] - This synchronous movement is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risks, expectations of monetary policy shifts, and supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Trade Tensions - The escalation of geopolitical uncertainty is driven by Ukraine's attack on Russian airbases and the deadlock in Iran's nuclear negotiations, which has heightened risk perceptions [2] - Former U.S. President Trump's proposal to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% has reignited global trade tensions, further fueling market anxiety and increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver [2] Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Currency Impact - The oil market faces multiple supply-side shocks, including OPEC+'s agreement to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day, but actual increases may be lower due to dissent from countries like Russia [3] - Demand is bolstered by the summer travel peak in the Northern Hemisphere and strong recovery in major economies like China, supporting the oil market fundamentals [3] - A weaker U.S. dollar enhances the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities, with the dollar index hitting its lowest level in 2023, prompting speculative short positions to cover and driving prices higher [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term market movements will be influenced by new negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, OPEC+ internal dynamics, and U.S. non-farm payroll data [5] - In the medium to long term, gold remains a valuable asset amid trade tensions and debt ceiling risks, while oil prices will depend on the rebalancing of supply and demand [5]
供应端仍然较充裕 焦煤期货盘面尚未看到止跌迹象
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-29 07:02
Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 758.5 yuan, with a current price of 763.5 yuan, reflecting a drop of 3.42% [1] - Institutions are evaluating the market outlook, with varying opinions on the impact of tariff changes and supply-demand dynamics [1][2] - The overall sentiment in the market is bearish, with high auction failure rates for coking coal and weak downstream purchasing activity [2][3] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that tariff changes will lead to price fluctuations, with coking coal production remaining high despite some reductions in specific mines [1] - Yinhai Futures suggests that the coking coal and coke prices are in a downward trend, with no signs of a price bottom yet, while monitoring macroeconomic factors such as U.S. tariffs [1][3] - Zhongcai Futures views both coking coal and coke as experiencing weak fluctuations, attributing this to supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels [2]
福能期货:螺纹钢驱动依旧向下
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-29 00:30
Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel market is experiencing a bearish sentiment, with the main contract accelerating its decline and falling below 3000 yuan/ton, marking ten consecutive days of losses [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seasonal factors are contributing to a psychological expectation of reduced demand for rebar steel as southern regions enter the traditional rainy season, with last week's apparent consumption at 2.4713 million tons, a decrease of 131,600 tons week-on-week [2] - The pressure on the rebar steel fundamentals is primarily due to the current profit levels in steelmaking, with steel mills showing limited willingness to cut production. Despite a continuous decline in coking coal prices, the profit margin for steel mills remains around 100 yuan/ton, with the profitability rate increasing to 59.74% last week, up 0.43 percentage points [2] - Rebar steel production last week was 2.3148 million tons, an increase of 49,500 tons week-on-week, indicating that production levels may remain stable under current profit conditions, despite the growing supply-demand imbalance [2] Cost Trends - The oversupply of coking coal continues to suppress prices, allowing steel mills to exert pressure on coking prices. A second round of price reductions for coking coal has begun, with expectations for further reductions in June, leading to a continued decrease in rebar steel costs [3] - Daily pig iron production last week was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons week-on-week, indicating a potential weakening in raw material demand as terminal demand declines [3] - Iron ore shipments are expected to stabilize and gradually increase as the end of the month approaches, with total shipments from Australia and Brazil reaching 27.292 million tons, an increase of 231,000 tons week-on-week. However, there are concerns about a marginal weakening in the iron ore fundamentals, with potential risks of price corrections [3] Summary - Overall, the terminal demand is entering a low season, with rebar steel production remaining stable at current profit levels and raw material supply being ample. If production does not decrease, the fundamentals may weaken; conversely, if production is cut, the decline in raw material prices could also exert downward pressure. Therefore, the supply-demand imbalance is likely to become more pronounced over time, with price movements continuing to trend downward. Attention should be paid to the risks of coal mine production cuts [4]
长江期货黑色产业日报-20250528
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of rebar futures is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to potential supply - demand contradictions and lower cost centers [1]. - The iron ore 09 contract is viewed as oscillating in the near future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The coking coal market may continue to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand, coking enterprise profits, and imported coal supply [3]. - The coke market faces a pattern of double - sided pressure on supply and demand in the short - term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and steel mill profit repair [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 140 (+4) [1]. - Last week, rebar apparent demand declined, production increased, and inventory depletion slowed. Demand is about to seasonally weaken, while steel mills have good profits and lack the willingness to cut production actively. The cost center of steel has shifted down due to falling raw material prices [1]. - Currently, the rebar futures price is below the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly under the background of low valuation [1]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures market was weak, affected by the decline in export heat and the slow decline of coal prices. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (-7), the Platts 62% index was 96.45 US dollars/ton (-1.2), and the monthly average was 99.50 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 76 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,913.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 213.94. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 243.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17 [1]. - There are more blast furnace overhauls recently, mainly in Hebei and Northeast China, and the overhaul time is long. The hot metal output may continue to decline, but the amplitude will not be large. The iron ore 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the near future [1]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in the main production areas maintain normal production, but some areas have phased production restrictions. The import volume at the Mongolian port remains low, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - In terms of demand, coking and steel enterprises maintain a rigid procurement rhythm. With the increasing expectation of the second round of coke price cuts, the market risk - aversion sentiment intensifies, and the enthusiasm of coal washing enterprises for starting work is limited [3]. - The coking coal market has short - term supply - demand contradictions, and the price may continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of terminal demand for finished products, the profit repair of coking enterprises, and the change of imported coal supply [3]. Coke - In terms of supply, coking enterprises in the main production areas maintain a normal production rhythm, and some areas limit production due to narrowed profit margins, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable [3]. - In terms of inventory, most coking enterprises maintain low - inventory operation, but some resources face sales pressure due to the slowdown of steel mill procurement. There is a bargaining space in the market due to quality differentiation [3]. - In terms of demand, the scope of blast furnace overhauls in steel mills has expanded, and the rigid demand has declined marginally. Steel mills maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and mainstream steel mills have initiated the second round of price cuts [3]. - The coke market faces a pattern of double - sided pressure on supply and demand in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of terminal demand for finished products and the profit repair of steel mills [3]. Industry News - From May 19th to May 25th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1417.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.1 tons, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [4]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners is 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators is 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines is 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production in the same period last year [4]. - In April 2025, except for a slight increase in the procurement cost of steam coal, the procurement costs of other varieties decreased month - on - month, among which the procurement costs of coking coal, pulverized coal injection, domestic iron concentrate, and imported lump ore decreased significantly [4]. - The General Office of the Henan Provincial People's Government issued an implementation plan, aiming to complete about 500,000 vehicle scrap and replacement updates and more than 8 million home appliance trade - ins in 2025 [4]. - Guangxi adjusted the deed tax rates for individuals purchasing first - and second - home properties [4].
不锈钢:盘面回归基本面交易 成本支撑供需矛盾仍存
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-27 02:11
Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak fluctuations with stable spot prices, while inventory pressures are manageable [1][2] Raw Materials - The Philippine nickel ore market is beginning June resource procurement, but shipments are hindered by rainfall, resulting in no transactions [1][2] - In Indonesia, the domestic nickel ore price remains stable with a slight increase of $0.65-$1, while overall prices have seen a minor uptick due to tight supply during the rainy season [1][2] - Nickel iron prices are stable but under pressure from steel mills, with transaction prices around 965-970 yuan/nickel (tax included) [1][2] Supply - According to Mysteel, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills in May is 3.4899 million tons, a 0.4% decrease month-on-month but a 5.8% increase year-on-year [1] - The production of the 300 series is 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1] Inventory - Social inventory data shows a weekly decline, with a reduction in warehouse receipts [1] - As of May 23, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 531,000 tons, down 30,800 tons week-on-week [1] - On May 26, stainless steel futures inventory is 139,121 tons, a decrease of 17,241 tons week-on-week [1] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market remains under pressure with high costs, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals after macroeconomic sentiments have stabilized [2] - Demand is slowly recovering, primarily driven by just-in-time inventory replenishment [2] - The overall supply surplus remains unchanged, with some steel mills reducing 300 series output while increasing 200 and 400 series production to alleviate losses [2]
不锈钢:盘面延续窄幅震荡 成本支撑供需矛盾仍存
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-23 02:09
Group 1: Market Overview - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with current prices remaining stable and trading atmosphere showing no significant improvement [2] - The macroeconomic environment has seen tariff delays largely digested, but future policy remains uncertain [2] - Nickel ore supply is tight due to rainy season impacts, affecting shipments from the Philippines and maintaining high domestic prices [2] Group 2: Supply and Production - Domestic stainless steel production is projected at 3.4899 million tons for May, a 0.4% decrease month-on-month but a 5.8% increase year-on-year [1] - The production of 300 series stainless steel is expected to be 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1] - Some steel mills have reduced 300 series output while increasing 200 and 400 series production to alleviate losses, but the overall supply surplus remains unchanged [2] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing - Social inventory data shows a weekly decline, with a reduction of 30,800 tons in stainless steel inventory [2] - As of May 23, social inventory for 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 531,000 tons, down from the previous week [1] - Nickel iron prices are stable, with mainstream market quotes around 960-970 yuan per nickel, indicating pressure on domestic factory profits [2]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250523
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 01:46
Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 23, 2024 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, although supply has decreased and demand has rebounded, there is still inventory accumulation. The futures price lacks the impetus for continuous growth, and the price will re - enter the downward channel with a potentially weak and volatile trend on the market [8][9]. - For glass, supply has significantly declined, demand is in the traditional off - season, and the demand - boosting effect of policies is limited. The price trend will be weak and volatile in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 22**: SA509 opened at 1284 yuan/ton, closed at 1286 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.54%, with a decrease of 24,595 lots in positions; SA601 closed at 1276 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.07%, with an increase of 3,943 lots in positions; FG509 closed at 1018 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.77%, with an increase of 64,371 lots in positions; FG601 closed at 1074 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with an increase of 6,554 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Central China was 1380 - 1480 yuan/ton, and that of light - quality soda ash was 1250 - 1380 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. Weekly production dropped to 663,800 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate dropped to 78.63%. The shipment volume was 699,000 tons, a 4.81% week - on - week increase. The weekly inventory of heavy - quality soda ash was 860,000 tons, with a slight reduction [8]. - **Glass Market**: Glass production has dropped significantly to the level of late February, and there is a possibility of further decline. The glass market has entered the traditional off - season, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. Policy support has little effect on boosting demand, and the price will be weak and volatile [10][11]. 2. Industry News - In April 2025, China's soda ash exports were 170,600 tons, a decrease of 23,700 tons month - on - month, with an average export price of $189.13/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to April was 653,900 tons, a 112.02% increase year - on - year. Imports were 4,600 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons month - on - month, with an average import price of $216.79/ton. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 14,500 tons, a 97.58% decrease year - on - year [12]. - The market price of baking soda in Henan remained stable, with the mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda at 1180 - 1260 yuan/ton [12]. - The domestic float glass market had mixed price changes, with most prices remaining stable. In North China, prices were mostly stable with some minor increases, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].
供需矛盾有所累积 螺纹钢短期或弱势整理运行为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-20 08:50
Core Viewpoint - The overall trend in the rebar market indicates a decline in prices and inventory levels, reflecting a weak demand in the real estate sector and high production levels in the steel industry [1][5]. Price Summary - As of May 19, the average price of rebar in 31 major cities is 3312 CNY/ton, down 23 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - On May 20, the rebar futures main contract closed at 3058.00 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 0.59%, reaching a high of 3080.00 CNY/ton and a low of 3050.00 CNY/ton during the day [2]. Inventory and Warehouse Data - On May 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded rebar warehouse receipts at 51625 tons, a decrease of 89442 tons from the previous trading day [3]. - Over the past week, rebar warehouse receipts have decreased by 97372 tons, a reduction of 65.35% [3]. - In the last month, the total reduction in rebar warehouse receipts is 145938 tons, representing a decrease of 73.87% [3]. - As of May 16, rebar inventory was recorded at 143201 tons, down 13838 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - According to Everbright Futures research, the real estate sector has shown continued weakness in April, while manufacturing investment has declined from high levels. The production of crude steel and pig iron remains elevated, leading to an accumulation of supply-demand contradictions in the domestic steel market. A weak consolidation trend is expected for rebar prices in the short term [5].
《有色》日报-20250520
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 06:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with the futures market weak. Supply pressure is evident due to increased production and imports, while demand is relatively flat. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, with the main contract price likely to test the 60,000 yuan level, but excessive bearishness is not recommended [1]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the cost provides strong support. However, the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of weak shock. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [4]. - **Tin**: The macro - sentiment may drive the price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand expectations, a short - selling strategy can be attempted in the 265,000 - 270,000 yuan range, with attention paid to the supply recovery [5]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot market is expected to remain tight in the short term, with prices likely to be strong and volatile. Attention should be paid to the production resumption of enterprises [6]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - factors provide support, and low inventory strengthens price resilience. However, the demand is facing seasonal and trade uncertainties, limiting the upside. The price is expected to range from 19,500 to 21,000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: Short - term prices may be supported by tariff easing, but the long - term supply is in a loose cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock or decline, depending on supply and demand [8]. - **Copper**: The market presents a "strong reality + weak expectation" situation. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the sustainability of the strong fundamentals after May and the tariff negotiation rhythm [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 dropped 1.24% to 63,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade dropped 1.27% to 62,050 yuan/ton. The basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 200% to 720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased 6.65% to 73,810 tons, while demand increased 3.02% to 89,627 tons. In March, imports increased 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased 47.25% to 220 tons [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel均价 dropped 0.89% to 125,000 yuan/ton. The import loss increased 7.62% to - 3,910 yuan/ton [3]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased 6.08% to 36,300 tons in April, and imports decreased 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased 3.02% to 27,808 tons [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,200 yuan/ton, and the basis increased 3.70% to 420 yuan/ton [4]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased 0.27% to 944 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and exports increased 70.98% to 47.06 million tons [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin均价 dropped 0.15% to 265,100 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased 35.43% to - 82 dollars/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In March, tin ore imports decreased 4.83% to 8,323 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased 8.75% to 15,280 tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory decreased 3.46% to 8,417 tons, and social inventory decreased 2.30% to 9,959 tons [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum均价 dropped 0.20% to 20,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased 45.3 yuan/ton to - 1,311 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, alumina production decreased 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.91% to 360.60 million tons [6]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.66% to 58.50 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.51% to 39.3 million tons [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot均价 dropped 0.53% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased 79.77 yuan/ton to - 386 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, refined zinc production increased 0.31% to 50.98 million tons. In March, imports increased 9.47% to 5.78 million tons, and exports decreased 77.37% to 0.02 million tons [8]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 1.99% to 8.38 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 2.07% to 16.1 million tons [8]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper均价 dropped 0.91% to 78,110 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased 114.59 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased 0.32% to 112.57 million tons. In March, imports increased 15.24% to 30.88 million tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased 13.08% to 13.92 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 34.00% to 10.81 million tons [11].