中国人民银行数据表明，央行二季度净购金6吨，上半年累计增储19吨，截至6月，连续8个月增持黄金。 不过，世界黄金协会发布最新的二季度全球黄金需求报告却显示，市场购金主力军的全球央行的购买量有所放 缓，全球央行在二季度净购金166吨，增储量同比减少了21%。 全球央行购金速度放缓除了当前金价处于较高位置之外，对于金价上涨的前景表明了并不统一的立场。 日内收盘，沪金上涨0.26%，报收782.5元/克。 图片来源：曲合APP 前期出于对贸易冲突的担忧部分资金选择押注黄金多头，随着 8 月 1 日到来前或有更多国家和美国达成贸易协 议对市场情绪影响减弱对美元资产形成支撑使价格承压，但 7 月美国经济数据呈现恶化再次提振9 月美联储降 息可能性，政治局势也使避险需求再次升温，未来美国通胀等相关数据对市场的影响将不断增加带来单反波 动。技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在 3450 美元的前高存在阻力缺乏较强突破的驱动，金价连跌后快 速修复整体仍维持偏强震荡，多单在 3300 美元（770 元）上方继续持有。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF (518880) experienced a slight decline of 0.46% to 7.354 CNY, with a trading volume of 10.67 billion CNY, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [1][2]. Fund Performance - Over the past 10 trading days, the gold ETF saw a net outflow of 23.17 billion CNY, while the last 5 days recorded a net outflow of 17.42 billion CNY, followed by a net inflow of 5.13 billion CNY in the last 2 days [1]. - As of July 28, 2025, the circulating scale of the gold ETF reached 576.41 billion CNY [1]. Market Analysis - Long-term outlook remains bullish for precious metals due to ongoing global central bank gold purchases and persistent supply-demand gaps in silver, despite short-term bearish pressures from easing risk aversion as global trade negotiations progress [2]. - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Senate and the potential increase in fiscal deficit rates are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [2]. Product Overview - The Huaan Gold ETF, established on July 18, 2013, is one of the earliest gold ETFs in China, benchmarked against domestic gold spot price returns, and has established a leading position in terms of scale and performance [3]. - Investors are advised to consider phased investment or dollar-cost averaging strategies when participating in the Huaan Gold ETF (518880) and its linked funds [3].

基本面： 周一（7月28日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅低开后守住此前跌幅表现清淡，盘中最低测试至3319.12美元/盎司，目前暂交投于3333美元附近。因美国和欧洲 达成贸易协议，令黄金避险需求进一步下降，但金价仍受到部分逢低买盘支撑，因美元走强、美欧贸易协议的乐观情绪的压制，上周五金价收跌近1%，为 连续三个交易日下跌，收报3336.49美元/盎司。 上周，美元指数从逾两周低点反弹，显著推高了黄金对海外买家的成本。美元的走强不仅源于美国经济数据的稳健表现，还得益于市场对美欧贸易谈判乐观 情绪的消化。尽管短期内受到经济数据和贸易协议预期的支撑，美元在过去一周仍录得一个月来最大单周跌幅。美国股市标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数上周 五创下收盘纪录新高，受助于对美国可能很快与欧盟达成贸易协议的乐观情绪。欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩于周日在苏格兰与美国总统特朗普会晤。此前，欧 盟官员和外交官表示，美欧预计周末将达成一项框架贸易协议。特朗普此前表示，与欧盟达成贸易协议的可能性为"50%"。 当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。特朗普表示，欧盟将比此前增加对美国投资6000亿美元，欧盟将 ...

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures experienced fluctuations but maintained above the $3400 mark, indicating a recovery in market sentiment amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and a weakening dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 21, COMEX gold futures surged by 1.63%, reaching $3410 per ounce, marking a five-week high [1]. - On July 22, gold futures opened at $3410.7 per ounce, peaked at $3416.3, and then fell slightly to $3403.1, a decrease of 0.1% [1][2]. - The average price recorded was $3407.0, with a slight decline of $3.4 [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased market risk aversion and a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline [3]. - Analysts suggest that four key factors will influence whether gold can surpass $3500: central bank purchasing, geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and dollar performance [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points from 2024 [3]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices will stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3, with a potential fundamental weakness in the market due to declining investment demand thereafter [4].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of gold in the second half of the year will be influenced by four key factors, with the potential to challenge the $3500 mark and the historical highs set in the first half of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices rose over 1.5%, surpassing $3400 per ounce, marking a five-week high due to increased market risk aversion and weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [1]. - The dollar index fell by 0.6%, dropping below the 98 mark, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched a one-week low, indicating a supportive environment for gold [2]. - Concerns over U.S. debt growth and further tariff updates are drawing attention to gold as a focal point, with prices appearing well-supported [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Global central bank enthusiasm is a significant driver, as central banks have been major buyers of gold, and their purchasing decisions can quickly impact the market [4]. - Geopolitical events often lead investors to shift from stocks and bonds to precious metals, with potential crises in July being a point of concern [4][5]. - Inflation data is crucial, as any sharp changes could signal economic weakness, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings [5]. - The historical negative correlation between gold and the dollar suggests that the outlook for gold prices will be influenced by the dollar's performance, which has seen a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current dynamics of gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, geopolitical tensions, and central bank activities, leading to a mixed outlook for gold in the short and long term [3][4]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 778.1 CNY per gram, up by 0.36% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3356.7 USD per ounce, down by 0.05% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - **Dollar and Treasury Factors**: The recent rise in the US dollar index, reaching a two-year high of 105, along with strong economic data, has increased the cost of gold priced in dollars, leading to decreased demand. Additionally, rising long-term US Treasury yields have diminished the appeal of non-yielding gold [3]. - **Geopolitical and Trade Factors**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the US's tariff policies and conflicts in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East, have heightened market fears, increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - **Central Bank and Investor Factors**: A global trend of central banks accumulating gold has emerged, with a net purchase of 24 tons by February 2025. This shift in supply and demand dynamics, along with a surge of younger investors entering the gold market, has contributed to increased market volatility [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to be volatile due to the opposing pressures from a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields, contrasted with support from geopolitical tensions. Long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and persistent geopolitical risks, although changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and economic data will significantly impact future gold prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of U.S. tariff policies under President Trump, which have led to increased market uncertainty and a rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - Trump signed an executive order extending the delay of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1, affecting goods from at least 14 countries, with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff increases is causing concerns about rising supply chain costs in the U.S., potentially leading to "stagflation," where economic growth slows while prices continue to rise [2] Group 2 - As of June 30, China's gold reserves increased to 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [4] - The recent U.S. tax and spending bill, known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," is expected to increase U.S. debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [10][11] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to market speculation about potential rate cuts later in the year, with expectations for two cuts by the end of 2025 [11][12] - The ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. economic environment, including the impact of tariffs and fiscal expansion, is complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [13][14] - Central banks' continued accumulation of gold is seen as a significant support for gold prices, especially in the context of a weakening U.S. dollar due to fiscal policies [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by strong U.S. employment data, while central bank gold purchasing trends provide long-term support for prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 775.68 CNY per gram, down 0.4% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3337.5 USD per ounce, down 0.16% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Strong U.S. employment data for June exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which in turn pressured gold prices [2]. - Over 90% of surveyed central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, with net purchases expected to exceed 1300 tons by 2025 [3]. - Recent geopolitical stability and trade negotiations have reduced gold's safe-haven demand, although potential increases in U.S. debt could enhance its appeal [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests gold may remain weak unless there is a significant deterioration in U.S. unemployment or inflation data [4]. - Long-term potential for gold price increases exists due to weakening U.S. dollar credibility and ongoing central bank purchases, but geopolitical and trade developments must be closely monitored [4].

Group 1 - International gold prices faced slight pressure, ending a two-day rebound, with COMEX gold futures net long positions dropping to 605.91 long tons, the lowest in nearly four quarters [1][2] - London gold spot prices briefly fell below $3,330 per ounce before rebounding, with current prices reported at $3,335.12 per ounce, while COMEX futures were at $3,344.8 per ounce [1] - Gold prices saw a significant drop to $3,255 per ounce last week, marking a one-month low, but rebounded to $3,350 per ounce at the start of this week, with a cumulative increase of 1.96% [1] Group 2 - Market trading sentiment has cooled, with a notable decline in COMEX gold futures net long positions in May and June, totaling 605.91 long tons for Q2 [2] - Sales of American Eagle coins have decreased, with cumulative sales of 102,000 ounces by the end of April, significantly lower than 185,000 ounces in the same period last year [2] - Gold ETFs have shown signs of net outflows, with Asian investors reducing holdings, resulting in a net sell of 4.8 tons in May and two weeks of outflows in June [2] Group 3 - Analysts attribute recent gold price fluctuations to easing geopolitical risks and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, with a focus on potential interest rate cuts in September [2] - The market anticipates a shift towards betting on Federal Reserve rate cuts in July, supported by strong global central bank gold purchases and concerns over the dollar's credibility [2] - The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 21.3%, indicating increasing market expectations [2] Group 4 - Since 2025, the pricing logic of gold has shifted, with its monetary attributes returning, viewed as a put option under the current credit currency system [4] - The ongoing cycle of high interest rates, increased government interest expenditures, rising deficits, and declining U.S. Treasury credit is expected to enhance gold's safe-haven value [4] - A report indicates that one in three central banks managing $5 trillion in reserves plans to increase gold holdings in the next 1-2 years, the highest proportion in five years [4]

Group 1 - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that over 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking the highest level since the survey began in 2019, and an increase of 17 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The survey collected responses from 73 central banks, the highest participation rate to date, with nearly 43% planning to increase their gold reserves in the coming year [1] - Central banks' primary motivations for holding gold include its long-term value storage function (80%), portfolio diversification (81%), and performance during crises (85%) [1] Group 2 - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices may fall below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters, marking the end of the current record rally, with a peak expected between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in Q3 of this year [3] - By the second half of 2026, gold prices are anticipated to decline to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce, representing a decrease of approximately 20% to 25% from current forward prices [3] Group 3 - Geopolitical tensions are providing short-term support for gold prices, with attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Jerome Powell's press conference [4] - Long-term factors influencing gold prices include the global dollar-based credit monetary system, economic de-globalization, central bank de-dollarization, and inflation outlook, suggesting potential for further price increases within the year [4]