Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It provides market trends, price movements, supply - demand situations, and trading strategies for each sector [2][11][24] - Different sectors face different opportunities and risks. For example, in the macro - finance sector, the stock index futures suggest trading based on economic and policy expectations; in the non - ferrous metals sector, the prices are affected by policies, production, and demand; in the energy chemicals sector, geopolitical risks and supply - demand balances impact prices [2][11][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Category Stock Index - **Base Ratio**: IF, IC, IM, and IH show different base ratios for different contracts [2] - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, focus on US tariff impacts; domestically, focus on the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. With low treasury bond rates and high stock - bond yield ratios, funds may flow into high - yield assets. Suggest going long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF long contracts at low prices, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3] Treasury Bond - **Market Condition**: On Wednesday, TL, T, and TF contracts rose, while the TS contract remained unchanged. China's June CPI and PPI data were released, and the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4] - **Strategy**: Economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The PMI in June recovered, but exports may face pressure. The money market is expected to remain loose, and interest rates are expected to decline. It is recommended to enter the market at low prices [6] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold rose, while Shanghai silver and COMEX silver fell. The US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the US dollar index were reported [7] - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's minutes show a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts, with internal differences. It is expected that the Fed's stance will turn dovish. Focus on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Movement**: Affected by the US copper tariff policy, prices fluctuated. LME and Shanghai copper showed different trends. The inventory, premium, and import - export situation were reported [11] - **Price Forecast**: The policy is uncertain, and the price may fluctuate. In July, China's refined copper production is expected to be high, and the inventory is expected to be stable. Shanghai copper may be stronger than LME copper [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The domestic commodity market was strong, and aluminum prices rose. The inventory, processing fee, and spot premium situation were reported [12] - **Outlook**: The domestic market is strong, but overseas trade is uncertain. The inventory is low, but the supply may increase in July, which may limit the upward space of aluminum prices [12] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Tin, etc.) - **Zinc**: Supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price is under pressure [13] - **Lead**: The primary supply is high, and the secondary supply is tight. The price is strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead may be limited [14] - **Nickel**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel iron is falling. It is recommended to go short at high prices [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is short, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [16] Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Condition**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices were reported [24] - **Analysis**: The export is affected by the Vietnamese anti - dumping policy. The domestic demand is insufficient, and the market needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [24] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The price of the iron ore main contract rose. The supply, demand, and inventory situation were reported [25] - **Outlook**: The supply decreased seasonally, and the demand was affected by steel production. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [25][26] Other Products (Glass, Soda Ash, etc.) - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded, and soda ash prices are expected to be weak. The supply, demand, and inventory situation were reported [27] Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Movement**: NR and RU rebounded. The reasons for the rise and fall were different, and the tire industry situation was reported [37][38][39] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term neutral view. Pay attention to the band operation opportunity [40] Other Chemicals (Crude Oil, Methanol, etc.) - **Crude Oil**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil rose. The inventory data was reported. The market is in a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see [41] - **Methanol**: The price of the 09 contract and the spot price fell. The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] Agricultural Products Category Livestock and Poultry Products (Pigs, Eggs) - **Pigs**: The prices in different regions showed different trends. The supply may increase, and the price may decline in the north. The short - term long - position may have space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply and hedging pressure [53] - **Eggs**: The prices were mostly stable. The supply is large, and the demand is cautious. The short - term is recommended to wait and see or short - term operation, and the medium - term is recommended to short after the festival [54] Oilseeds and Oils (Soybean Meal, Vegetable Oil) - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are in a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal supply is high, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to supply pressure [55][56] - **Vegetable Oil**: The export of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the domestic inventory increased. The EPA policy supports the price, but there are still negative factors. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating attitude [57][58][59]

黑色建材日报 2025-07-10 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3063 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 0 元/吨（0%）。当日注册仓单 44905 吨, 环 比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 217.4941 万手，环比增加 6394 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3190 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 1 元/吨（-0.03%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力 合约持仓量为 158.2553 万手，环比减少 11138 ...

晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 10 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/10 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農あ | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 锌 | 多晶硅 | 燃油 | | | | 苹果 | 上证50股指期货 | 沥青 | | | | 红枣 | 中证500股指期货 | 氧化铝 | | | | 纯碱 | 工业硅 | 三十债 | | | | 锰硅 | 中证1000指数期货 | 橡胶 | | | | 塑料 | 沪深300股指期货 | 尿素 | | | | 硅铁 | 铝 | 稼校 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉花 | 玻璃 | | | | | 十债 | 焦炭 | | | | | 五债 | 焦煤 | | | | | 白糖 | 对二甲苯 | | | | | 棉纱 | ...

Market Overview - US stocks rose, led by major tech companies, with the Nasdaq up nearly 1% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.61% [2] - Nvidia's market capitalization briefly surpassed $4 trillion, closing up 1.8%, leading the tech giants [3] - US Treasury prices rebounded, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping nearly 7 basis points [2][6] - Bitcoin surged to $112,000, marking a nearly 19% increase this year [2] - Oil prices remained stable despite a significant increase in crude oil inventories, the largest since January [2] Key Economic Indicators - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, with core CPI reaching a 14-month high, while PPI's year-on-year decline expanded to 3.6% [3][10] - Trump's new tariffs target eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, the highest to date [3][10] - The US Treasury Department reported a significant decrease in the risk of a "debt issuance wave" [12] Company News - Nvidia's market cap reached $4 trillion, with expectations for strong earnings in the upcoming earnings season [15] - OpenAI is set to launch an AI browser, challenging Google's Chrome dominance [15] - Amazon's extended Prime Day sales saw a significant drop in initial sales, raising concerns about consumer interest [15] - Hong Kong Jockey Club plans to sell $1 billion in private equity funds, including assets from Blackstone and Warburg Pincus [15][16] Industry Insights - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with excavator sales in June up 13% year-on-year [25] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" movement, with supply-side reforms expected to impact the silicon material segment [26] - The AI sector in China is seeing strong growth, with AI agents and multi-modal models becoming key growth drivers [20]

金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上昨夜今晨的财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及 政策更新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 英伟达市值突破4万亿美元，美股早盘上扬关注关税与纪要 北京时间7月9日晚，美股早盘继续上扬，英伟达市值突破4万亿美元，成为史上首家达此里程碑公司。 其股价一度涨2.5%，今年涨22%，估值增约7000亿美元。同时，特朗普威胁大幅提高进口铜和药品关 税，投资者关注贸易局势及美联储货币政策会议纪要。此前周二美股震荡，受特朗普关税政策更新影 响。此外，美欧接近达成贸易协议。详情>> 特朗普威胁征收高额关税，美国铜价飙升 当地时间7月8日，特朗普表示将对进口铜征收50%关税，对进口药品征收最高200%关税，给企业一年 到一年半调整时间。美国铜价飙升逾10%，突破历史高点。周二美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指收 跌。特朗普还称美联储主席鲍威尔应辞职，应降息。此外，他批准向乌克兰运送武器，考虑对俄追加制 裁。详情>> 中国资产暴涨，市场风险偏好抬升 美国时间7月8日，美股三大指 ...

EFF 2025 07-09 17:00 $ 期市动态雷达 数据透视线索 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中57个合约上涨,21个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的多头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在上涨品种上。 主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% 看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 涨幅居前的品种: 多晶硅2508(+5.03%)、焦煤2509(+3.81%)、纯苯 2603(+2.5%)。这些品种受供需影响显著。 跌合约 21 跌幅居前的品种: 胶板2511(-1.68%)、国际铜2508(-1.56%)、沪铜 2508(-1.36%)，可能受空头力量增强或基本面利空影响。 资金流向 (亿元) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 资金流入最多的品种： 焦煤2509(3.52亿元)、棕榈油2509(1.64亿元)、 PVC2509(1.59亿元)，这些品种吸引了大量主力资金关注。 资金流出最多的品种:中证1000 2509(-44.82亿元)、中证500 2507(-19.64亿元)、沪深300 25 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Wall Street investment banks are optimistic about China's "anti-involution" policies, particularly the government's capacity reduction initiatives, which are expected to boost the stock market and global trade [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implications - The Central Economic Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to legally govern low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises, signaling a new phase in the "anti-involution" policy [1][4]. - The government has committed to addressing supply excess in the solar, steel, and cement industries to combat over-competition and price declines [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - According to Morgan Stanley, all industries suffering from overcapacity have stock prices below their peak in 2021, with declines exceeding 50% in sectors like batteries, photovoltaics, cement, steel, and chemicals [2]. - Goldman Sachs noted that traditional cyclical industries such as steel and cement are likely to see valuation recovery and profit improvement due to the shift from short-term production limits to long-term capacity reduction [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The anticipated reduction in steel production by 50 million tons could lead to a year-on-year decrease of 6% in output, with profit margins expected to expand by 200 yuan per ton [3]. - The cement industry is projected to eliminate 22-27% of excess capacity, which could significantly enhance industry profits [3].

行业视角反内卷之光伏玻璃 - 反内卷政策解读 20250708 摘要 光伏玻璃行业面临产能过剩，头部企业计划自 2025 年 7 月起集体减产 30%，部分企业已采取窑炉堵口措施，旨在缓解供需矛盾并稳定价格， 但实际效果仍待观察。 技术创新是光伏玻璃行业发展的关键驱动力，企业需加大在薄型化、大 尺寸化以及 TOPCon、BC 电池叠层技术上的研发投入，构建差异化竞 争优势，并淘汰落后产能。 国际贸易政策对中国光伏玻璃出口构成影响，美国和欧盟提高关税，欧 盟即将实施碳关税，迫使中国企业加速全球供应链布局，开拓新兴市场。 头部企业如信义、福莱特凭借技术、规模、成本控制等优势占据市场主 导地位，并通过海外扩张提升竞争力，二线企业如南玻、旗滨则通过差 异化竞争和技术创新提升自身地位。 行业龙头企业通过收购小型企业、淘汰违规产能等方式优化产业结构， 提高运营效率。2020 年 1 月 3 日后投产的新生产线需进行产能置换或 获得地环函，目前约 9 万吨新合法合规低风险产能已投产。 Q&A 当前光伏玻璃行业的竞争格局是怎样的？ 光伏玻璃行业近年来发展迅速，特别是在 2022 年和 2023 年，每年新增产能 较多。目前， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment disturbance in the industrial silicon market is increasing, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies in the polysilicon market [1] - A new round of "anti - involution" and capacity - reduction actions have started in industries such as photovoltaic, steel, and cement. Some domestic photovoltaic glass enterprises will cut production by 30% starting from July, and some steel mills have received emission - reduction and production - limit notices [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 closing price is 8,215 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,707,280 lots and an open interest of 387,122 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2508 closing price is 38,385 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 634,366 lots and an open interest of 110,547 lots [1] - **Basis**: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +405 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - feeding) is +1050 yuan/ton [1] - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 8750 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - feeding material is 39000 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2851 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 4.6 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.2 million tons, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 27.2 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 340 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1250 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 2, the steel and photovoltaic sectors in the A - share market saw a wave of daily limit. The "anti - involution" actions in industries such as photovoltaic, steel, and cement have begun, with production - reduction measures taken [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

Report Overall Summary - **Report Date**: July 9, 2025 - **Report Type**: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - **Companies Covered**: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Nickel**: The upside potential is limited, and nickel prices are under pressure at low levels [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories are slightly digested, and steel prices are recovering, but the recovery is limited [2][5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the subsequent position volume [2][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Emotional disturbances are increasing [2][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy - side measures [2][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,370, down 170 from the previous day. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,700, up 60 from the previous day. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed various changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were events like Ontario potentially halting nickel exports to the US, the trial - production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, the resumption of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of an Indonesian cold - rolling mill [5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 63,880, up 220 from the previous day. The position volume and other related data also had corresponding changes. The production in June 2025 was 7.40 million tons, with a 5.7% month - on - month increase, and the planned production in July was 7.93 million tons, with a 7.1% month - on - month increase [11][12][13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were production changes in different regions [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,215, up 170 from the previous day. For polysilicon, the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 38,385, up 1,870 from the previous day. There were also changes in trading volume, position volume, spreads, and inventory data [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The A - share market's steel and photovoltaic sectors had a涨停潮, and there were production reduction actions in the photovoltaic and cement industries [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [16].