2025年06月11日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.23%，收于 19980 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 325 元/吨， | | | | | LME 价格 2476.5 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | 交易策略：氧化铝价格下行，利润向电解铝端转移，供应或维持高负荷生产，而下游消费处于淡季，部分板 | | | | | 块开工率持续下滑。但低库存提供下方支撑，预计价格维持震荡走势。 | | | | | 操作建议：观望。 | | | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.21%，收于 2886 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 367 元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，复产产能和新增产能持续释放，运行产能增加。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产， | ...

截至10日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1358.52点，较前一交易日上涨1.48点，涨幅0.11%；中 证商品期货指数收报1881.07点，较前一交易日上涨2.05点，涨幅0.11%。 铸造铝合金首日上市大涨苯乙烯涨超2% 新华财经北京6月10日电 6月10日，铸造铝合金涨超4%，苯乙烯涨超2%，一号大豆、高硫燃料油、红 枣、20号胶、SC原油、玉米淀粉、沪胶、玉米、生猪、菜粕涨超1%；不锈钢、沪锌、尿素、沪镍跌超 1%。 沪锌昨日增仓下挫，主力合约跌破22000元的短期支撑。据一德期货分析，基本面方面，二季度海外矿 山已基本恢复生产节奏，海关数据显示锌矿进口依旧较为强劲，6月国产锌矿加工费继续上调。前期检 修炼厂逐步恢复，6月产量增加明显，从后续冶炼厂检修排产来看，预计7月产量延续高位。消费端，中 美关税达成90天豁免期，国内不少出口企业开始继续补库。但整体消费开始边际下滑，随着南方地区梅 雨季节来临，户外施工项目或受到一定影响，相关终端订单预计继续走弱。前期沪伦比值攀升锌锭进口 窗口开启，随着进口锌流入一定程度补充国内供给，6月锌锭库存仍有累库预期。 （文章来源：新华财经） 尿素期货跌至近半年低点沪 ...

智通财经6月10日电，国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一，铝合金涨超4%，苯乙烯涨超2%，红枣、豆一、20 号胶、原油、生猪涨超1%，跌幅方面，不锈钢、沪锌、尿素、沪镍跌超1%。 国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一 铝合金涨超4% ...

商品期货开盘，铝合金主力合约上市首日涨超5%，沪银、苯乙烯、原油涨超1%。焦煤、集运欧线跌超 2%，纯碱、焦炭跌超1%。 ...

国内商品期货多数收涨 纸浆、工业硅涨超2% 智通财经6月9日电，国内商品期货多数收涨，纸浆、工业硅涨超2%，沪银、苯乙烯、原油、玻璃涨超 1%，跌幅方面，苹果跌超3%，集运欧线、多晶硅跌超2%，尿素、沪锌、烧碱、PTA、氧化铝、焦炭跌 超1%。 ...

Group 1: Aluminum - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The aluminum price is expected to have a high - level shock in the short - term (19800 - 20200) and run at a high level in the medium - term (19200 - 21000). The recommended strategy is to sell AL2507 - P - 19300 and hold it [1] - Summary of relevant content: As of May 26, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week and lower than 782,000 tons in the same period last year, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years, which is positive for the aluminum price. From January to April, automobile production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.9% and 10.8%, also positive for the aluminum price [1] Group 2: Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Steel prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term and be under overall pressure in the medium - term. The recommended strategy is to continue selling the call options of ribbed bar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [2][4] - Summary of relevant content: The overall pressure on steel raw material inventory is still large. The 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 138.6658 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.68%, but the low - grade tradable inventory at ports is at a near 5 - year high in the same period. The sample mine clean coal inventory was 480,730 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.63% and a year - on - year increase of 73.71%. The coal washery clean coal inventory was 245,060 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.35% and a year - on - year increase of 33.35%, at the highest level in the same period of the past 5 years. Steel downstream consumption is still poor. For steel plates, export orders are still average and have not recovered to the pre - tax increase level. For building materials, construction is entering the off - season, with insufficient supporting funds for local incremental projects (the sample construction site fund availability rate is 58.87%, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year). This week, the construction steel consumption was 3.1487 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.31% [2][4]

南华商品指数：所有板块均上涨，贵金属领涨 王怡琳 2025-06-06 16:56:21 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数上涨0.87%。板块指数中，所有板块均有所上涨，其中 涨幅最大的板块是南华贵金属指数，涨幅为1.74%；涨幅最小的板块是南华农产品指数，涨幅为0.37%。 主题 指数中，所有主题指数均有所上涨，其中涨幅最大的主题指数是建材指数，涨幅为1.14%；涨幅最小的主题指数 是煤制化工指数，涨幅为0.19%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是白银，上涨4.45%，跌幅 最大的商品期货单品种指数是胶合板，跌幅为-2.9%。 > 南华期货 | 股票代码 603093 南华商品指数日报 2025年6月6日 | | | | 南华商品指数市场数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 今收盘 | 昨收盘 | 点数 | 日 時 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动率 | Sharpe | | | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | ଚିତ୍ର | ARR ...

Group 1 - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1345.85 points, down 1.37 points or 0.1% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Commodity Futures Index closed at 1863.53 points, down 1.9 points or 0.1% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Coking coal experienced a rebound due to supply-side news but retreated as the news was not confirmed, closing up 1.68% [2] - The market sentiment for coking coal has cooled, with no significant price increases in the spot market, and some steel mills have initiated price reductions for coking coal [2] - The outlook for coking coal remains weak due to oversupply, with expectations of continued market fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 3 - Tin prices are consolidating after a significant rise, closing up 1.47% [3] - Concerns about slow recovery in supply from Myanmar's Wa State tin mines are affecting market sentiment, while overall consumption remains limited [3] - Economic data from the U.S. indicates a slowdown, with ADP employment numbers and ISM services PMI both falling below expectations, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 4 - Aluminum futures saw a sharp decline, dropping nearly 3% amid concerns over supply disruptions from Guinea's Axis mine [4] - The market is shifting focus to the potential for oversupply as production resumes, despite current tightness in the spot market [4] Group 5 - Urea futures fell nearly 3%, reaching the lowest level since January, with significant fluctuations in inventory levels reported [6] - The domestic supply of urea remains high, and while demand is stable, the market sentiment is cautious due to the potential for further inventory accumulation [6] - The nitrogen fertilizer association has set a maximum ex-factory price for urea, indicating a controlled pricing environment amid low production costs [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the strong performance of gold despite a disappointing non-farm payroll report, indicating a potential trend in commodity futures [1] - It highlights the importance of utilizing advanced tools for tracking futures markets, including order flow and volume-price distribution [1] - The article promotes a live session where a seasoned futures researcher will share practical case studies and strategies for capturing trading opportunities [1] Group 1 - The non-farm payroll report showed weaker than expected results, yet gold remains strong [1] - The article emphasizes the significance of understanding market trends and utilizing tools for effective trading in commodity futures [1] - A live analysis session will be conducted by an experienced researcher to provide insights into trading strategies and market dynamics [1]

2025年06月05日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：美国 ADP 新增就业不及预期，特朗普喊话鲍威尔降息，称要取 | | | | | | | | | 消美国债务上限。美元走弱，金属整体获得一定支撑。供给端铜矿紧张格局延续，需求端华东华南平水铜现 | | | | | | | | 铜 | 80 120 1450 货升水 元和贴水 元成交，华南现货走弱明显。精废价差 元附近。交易策略：在美元偏弱情况下， | | | | | | | | | 以震荡偏强运行对待。风险提示：全球流动性冲击，全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.08%，收于 20075 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 410 元/吨， | | | | | | | | | LME 价格 2484 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电 ...