1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump's second - term tax cut expansion may lead to concerns about the unsustainability of US public debt. Combined with continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Policy and Interest Rates - The US Senate and House of Representatives passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted between August and October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. Trump's administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by $163 billion. With better - than - expected economic data and lower - than - expected inflation in April, the Fed may cut interest rates in September or December [3]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. Given the economic data and the economist's prediction of the neutral interest rate, the ECB may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times before the end of 2025 [3]. - The Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May and will continue to reduce its government bond holdings by £100 billion from October 2024 to September 2025. Due to inflation data, the market expects the BoE to cut interest rates only once more before the end of 2025 [3]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, bringing the benchmark rate to 0.5%. With inflation data and the stance of some officials, the market still expects the BoJ to raise interest rates [4]. US Debt and Liquidity - The US outstanding public debt is $36.2 trillion, hitting the $36.1 trillion debt ceiling. Trump's second - term tax cut bill may increase the fiscal deficit by at least $3.3 trillion in the next decade, raising concerns about debt sustainability [9]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale is about $162.8 billion. From a weekly perspective, the Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse repurchase scale decreased, and the Treasury's general account cash balance decreased. Before the debt - ceiling issue is resolved, the Treasury's cash account balance may decline, and the Fed may slow down its balance - sheet reduction [10][12]. Inflation and Yields - US consumers' one - and five - year inflation expectations have significantly increased from January to May. Trump's tariff policies and the expansionary tax cut bill have raised medium - and long - term inflation expectations [16][18]. - Trump's tax cut bill, large - scale bond maturities, and high federal funds target rates have led to a significant increase in US medium - and long - term Treasury yields [22]. - The expectation of out - of - control Treasury supply has pushed up medium - and long - term Treasury yields, while the declining consumer - end inflation has led to an increase in medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields [25]. - The difference between long - and medium - term Treasury yields in the US is positive and expanding, mainly due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation suppressing short - and medium - term yields and concerns about fiscal deficits pushing up long - term yields [29]. Financial Market Indicators - The US OFR financial stress index decreased compared to last week, with declines in credit, stock valuation, safe - asset, and volatility indicators [32][33]. - The weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases decreased, with only credit - card loans showing a week - on - week increase [37]. - The US Redbook commercial retail sales' weekly annual rate decreased. As of May 17, the year - on - year growth rate was 5.4%, indicating a still - prosperous consumer industry but more price - sensitive consumers [40]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index decreased due to the increase in 15 - and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates. The number of new and existing home sales in March decreased [43]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 229,000, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The number of continued jobless claims was 1.881 million, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, indicating a still - prosperous labor - market demand [47]. International Comparison - The difference in medium - and long - term Treasury yields between the US and Germany has increased, mainly due to the ECB's interest - rate cut expectation suppressing German yields and the increase in US Treasury supply and delayed Fed interest - rate cut expectation pushing up US yields [51]. - The euro and the pound have strengthened against the US dollar, driven by concerns about US debt and reduced expectations of the BoE's interest - rate cuts [53]. Precious Metal Market - The volatility of the US gold ETF index has increased, and the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased, with a reduction in SPDR gold ETF holdings [54][59]. - The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE increased compared to last week [63][64]. - The premium of domestic gold futures prices is within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for gold cross - market arbitrage opportunities [68]. - The gold basis in London and COMEX is negative and within a reasonable range, and the basis between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and SHFE is negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - level long - entry opportunities for the SHFE gold basis [72]. - The spreads between near - and far - month gold contracts in COMEX and SHFE are negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE gold monthly - spread arbitrage opportunities [76]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures increased, and the iShare silver ETF holdings increased [79]. - The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased compared to last week [83]. - The premium of domestic silver futures and spot prices is within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for silver cross - market arbitrage opportunities [87]. - The silver basis in COMEX is negative and within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai silver basis is negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE silver basis arbitrage opportunities [91]. - The spreads between near - and far - month silver contracts in COMEX and Shanghai are negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE silver near - and far - month contract spread arbitrage opportunities [96]. - The "gold - to - silver ratio" in London LME and US COMEX (SHFE) is much higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. Given central - bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, it is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for the "gold - to - silver ratio" on dips [99]. - The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) are much higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. Due to OPEC's oil - production increase expectation and the approaching traditional consumption off - season, it is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for these ratios on dips [102].

Group 1 - Gold has experienced significant volatility in 2023, with daily price fluctuations of $100 becoming common, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies [1][3] - The current trading range for gold is expected to oscillate between $2950-$3500, with potential for large price swings, indicating opportunities for both long and short positions [1] - Recent trading patterns show that gold tends to rise during Asian sessions, consolidate during European sessions, and rebound during U.S. sessions, which traders should monitor closely [3][4] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but there are signs of overbought conditions, suggesting caution against chasing prices [4] - Specific resistance levels for gold are identified at $3334-$3355, with support around $3285-$3290, indicating key price points for traders to watch [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [7] Group 3 - U.S. stock futures are showing high volatility, with expectations of a potential downturn as they approach historical highs, influenced by recent downgrades in U.S. credit ratings [7] - Crude oil prices have shown resilience after a recent drop, with a focus on the $61 support level and potential for further gains if the $65 resistance is broken [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, highlighting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - Gold has experienced unprecedented volatility this year, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors [1] - The current market environment suggests that gold prices will likely oscillate between 2950-3500 or 3100-3400 in the near future, with opportunities for both long and short positions [1] Group 2 - Gold broke through the 3250 level after three days of consolidation, with a notable increase during the US trading session, reaching a high of 3295 [3] - The trading strategy involved positioning for a bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining long positions above the 3200 level, and planning to exit at a profit of around 200 dollars [6] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish as long as it stays above the 3250-55 range, with potential resistance levels identified at 3315, 3325-30, and 3350-60 [8] Group 3 - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements, with a bearish outlook on US stocks due to recent downgrades affecting market sentiment [9] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with a focus on maintaining positions until a breakout above 65 occurs, which would open further upside potential [11]

2025.05.19-05.23 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 中美贸易缓和降低短期避险需求、美联储鹰派立场支撑美元走强、全球 央行购金节奏阶段性放缓、技术面修正压力显现以及地缘风险边际收敛。 尽管中长期仍受去美元化和央行购金支撑，但短期市场需消化政策预期 与流动性拐点的影响。需关注5月20日后美联储政策路径、6月欧洲央行 降息节奏及中美贸易谈判进展，以判断黄金是否能重回上行通道。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金短期回调，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508 下方支撑：776－785，上方压力828-837。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期高位承压，建议观望。黄金主力合约2508下方支撑： 732－741，上方压力750－759。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Myst ...

Short-term Downward Factors - International gold prices are under adjustment pressure, with potential for further declines in the short term [2] - Gold prices have broken below the key support level of $3200, with short-term support shifting to the $3150 - $3160 range [3] - If gold prices effectively drop below $3150, it may trigger programmatic selling, potentially reaching the psychological level of $3100 [3] Short-term Support or Rebound Factors - Despite the current bearish market sentiment, there is a possibility of short-term price recovery due to the Stochastic Oscillator being in the oversold region, indicating potential for a rebound [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the ongoing economic tensions between the US and China, may trigger safe-haven demand, supporting gold prices [3] - Central banks globally have shown a trend of net gold purchases, with 244 tons bought in Q1 2025, providing solid support for gold prices [3] Medium to Long-term Trend Analysis - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3700 for gold by the end of 2025, with an extreme scenario suggesting a rise to $4500 [2] - Morgan Stanley warns that if the US economy does not "land," gold prices could plummet to $2700 [2] - Citic Securities forecasts that COMEX gold will range between $3000 and $3250 for the entire year [2] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to stable demand driven by central bank purchases and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has regained attention as a key asset for investors due to the weakening trust in the US dollar, highlighting its role as a safe-haven asset in the current economic climate [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The financial, monetary, safe-haven, and commodity attributes of gold collectively influence its market trends [2] - Recent price increases are driven by three main factors: pricing logic, central bank gold purchases, and skepticism towards the US dollar system [2] - The rise in gold prices is linked to heightened geopolitical risks and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, which has intensified since 2022 [2][3] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Market Dynamics - As of April 2023, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for six months, with gold now constituting 6.8% of total reserves [4] - Global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in Q1 2023, aligning with the trend of over 1,000 tons purchased annually from 2022 to 2024, significantly surpassing the average of 473 tons from 2010 to 2021 [4] - The participation of individual investors in gold ETFs has surged, with over 41 million investors involved, reflecting a growing acceptance of gold as an investment tool [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - Despite recent volatility, gold is viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency depreciation and economic uncertainty [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold still holds long-term allocation value, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] - A recommended allocation of 5-10% in gold can effectively diversify risk and enhance portfolio performance, given its low correlation with other assets [6]

| 贵金属日评20250516:美联储降息与否转向关注单月通胀,伊朗与美国或可以达成核协议 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较上周变化 | 2025-05-15 | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-09 | 收盘价 | 739.82 | 761. 72 | 788. 42 | -48.60 | -21.90 | | | | | | | 成交量 | 246, 538, 00 | 497536.00 | 663192.00 | 80, 882. 00 | 744074.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 214778.00 | 5, 329.00 | 211188.00 | 205859.00 | -3, 590. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17238.00 | 17238.00 | 17238.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

1、中东局势（以色列与伊朗冲突）、德国政治不确定性及特朗普对好莱坞征收100%关税的政策扰动仍在，持续刺激避险需求，对黄金价格有一定的支撑作 用。但美英达成贸易协议，使得市场避险情绪显著降温，风险偏好升温，导致国际金价大幅下挫，这显示出地缘政治局势对黄金价格影响的复杂性，不同事 件的综合作用使得市场对避险需求的态度有所转变。 2、美联储5月7日维持利率不变，且声明强调"通胀压力仍需观察"，市场对6月降息预期降温，美元指数得到支撑有所回升，这压制了以美元计价的黄金的吸 引力。同时，市场对即将公布的美国4月CPI数据（预期3.5%）较为关注，若数据超预期，可能进一步强化美联储鹰派立场，对黄金价格形成更大压力；若 数据疲软，则可能使降息预期升温，从而对黄金价格产生支撑。 3、2025年一季度全球央行净购金290吨，中国连续17个月增持黄金储备，央行的持续购金行为表明对黄金长期价值的认可，从长期来看，为黄金价格提供了 有力支撑。不过在短期，央行购金行为对黄金市场价格的影响相对较小，难以抵消其他宏观因素如货币政策和地缘政治局势变化带来的短期波动。 黄金技术面分析： 黄金消息面解析 昨日现货黄金价格开盘3366.2美元/ ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, global gold demand reached a record high of 4,974 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, with total consumption value exceeding $382 billion [1][10] - The average annual gold price rose to $2,386 per ounce, marking a 23% increase from 2023, the largest increase in nearly a decade [1][10] - Gold supply increased by 1% year-on-year, with gold mine production estimated to grow by 1%, while recycling supply surged by 11% [1][10] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Jewelry and investment demand exhibited a contrasting trend; global jewelry consumption fell to a historic low of 1,877 tons, down 11% year-on-year, but the consumption value increased by 9% to $144 billion [2][25] - Investment demand was the primary driver, with total investment volume rising to 1,180 tons, a 25% increase year-on-year [2][48] - Central bank gold purchases exceeded 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year, with a net purchase of 1,045 tons in 2024, primarily from emerging market central banks [2][12] Group 3: Regional Insights - In China, jewelry demand declined by 24% to 479 tons due to economic slowdown and high gold prices, while India showed resilience with only a 2% decline in demand [25][33] - The Middle East and Turkey saw a rebound in demand in Q4, with an 18% quarter-on-quarter increase due to price corrections [2][35] - The U.S. experienced a continuous decline in jewelry demand for 11 consecutive quarters, reaching a five-year low, while European demand also fell to the lowest level since 2020 [39][40] Group 4: Future Outlook - The demand for gold in the technology sector is expected to grow by 7% to 326 tons in 2024, driven by the demand for AI hardware and 5G devices [3][12] - Investment demand is anticipated to remain strong in 2025, supported by central bank interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [3][12] - Jewelry consumption may face pressure from high gold prices, but the wedding season in India and recovery in emerging markets could provide some support [3][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On May 7, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures active - contract closing price was 803.50, with a trading volume of 413,639.00 and an open interest of 127,407.00. The Shanghai spot gold (Au T + D) closing price was 792.87 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 65,320.00 and an open interest of 212,772.00. The COMEX gold futures active - contract closing price was 3372.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 275,912.00 and an open interest of - 2,384.00. The London gold spot price was 3392.25 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holding was 937.67 tons, and the iShare Gold ETF holding was 437.55 tons [1]. - **Silver**: The Shanghai silver futures active - contract closing price was 8252.00, with a trading volume of 537,686.00 and an open interest of 232,016.00. The Shanghai spot silver (Ag T + D) closing price was 8.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 442,110.00 and an open interest of 3,542,778.00. The COMEX silver futures active - contract closing price was 33.22 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 53,799.00 and an open interest of 109,710.00. The London silver spot price was 33.23 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holding was 13,958.73 tons, and the Canadian PSLV Silver ETF holding was 5807.39 tons [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 97.37, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 100.18, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 103.19 [1]. 2. Important Information - **Macroeconomic and Policy**: The Fed paused interest rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating increased "uncertainty". Powell said not to rush to cut interest rates. China's foreign exchange reserves in April increased by 1.27% month - on - month, and the central bank has been increasing gold holdings for six consecutive months. The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, and the CBO predicted that the Treasury's funds might be exhausted between August and October, which would slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration planned to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by 183 billion dollars. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. - **Geopolitical**: If the EU's negotiation with the US fails, it is prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs on Boeing aircraft [1]. 3. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 750 - 780 and the resistance level is around 850 - 900. For London silver, the support level is around 28 - 30 and the resistance level is around 35 - 36; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 7400 - 7800/8000 and the resistance level is around 8600 - 8900 [1].