Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant bull run, with prices reaching historical highs due to geopolitical tensions, monetary policy changes, and central bank purchases, leading to widespread public interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][9]. Group 1: Price Trends and Historical Context - Gold prices have surged from approximately $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4,100 per ounce, marking a nearly 58% increase within a year [1]. - In 2024, international gold prices set 40 historical highs, indicating a rare and robust bull market not seen in many years [1][3]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, with estimates from major financial institutions indicating potential prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce [8][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Geopolitical instability, including issues in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led investors to view gold as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and driving prices higher [3]. - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle has attracted funds to gold, as lower interest rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [3][9]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a reported net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, indicating strong institutional support for gold [3][9]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Current gold prices are at a high level, with fluctuations observed, such as a recent drop from $4,150 to $4,090 within two days, suggesting potential volatility for investors [4][5]. - Historical patterns indicate that after rapid price increases, a correction phase typically follows, which may present buying opportunities for investors [5][10]. - The domestic market shows a divergence in pricing, with brand gold jewelry often priced 20% to 25% higher than international market rates, suggesting that investors may benefit from considering investment-grade gold products like ETFs instead of high-premium jewelry [6][10]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumer demand for gold jewelry in China has decreased by 32.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating that high prices may be deterring purchases [8]. - Investors are advised to prepare for potential short-term volatility and to consider a phased investment approach to mitigate risks associated with market entry at high prices [8][11]. - The long-term appeal of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty remains strong, despite potential challenges from high prices and fluctuating dollar strength [9][13].

要知道现在金价已经在历史高位了，这意味着还得再涨近20%才能摸到这个目标。 结构性转变：央行购金与"去美元化"的暗流 高盛石油研究主管达安・斯特鲁文给出的理由很明确，就是"央行购金"和"美联储降息"这两个双轮驱动 力。 别看这逻辑说起来简单，背后其实是全球宏观经济和货币体系在悄悄发生大变化。想搞懂这波金价看涨 的行情，咱就得扒开数字表面，看看底下真正的结构性力量到底是什么。 文|锐资 编辑|锐资 前言： 家人们，最近国际金融圈被一条消息炸翻了：投行巨头高盛抛出重磅预测，到2026年底，国际金价可能 会飙升到4900美元/盎司。 首先咱得说第一个核心驱动力，也是高盛最看重的，各国央行的结构性购金。这可不是央行一时兴起的 短期操作，而是实打实的战略转向。 放在以前，央行买黄金都是慢节奏的，顶多算资产配置里的小调整。但从2022年开始，全球央行购金规 模就一直卡在历史高位，现在已经成了影响金价的关键快变量。为啥大家突然都开始囤黄金了？说到底 还是心里没底。 地缘政治冲突不断，美国动不动就把金融体系当武器用，再加上自己背着庞大的财政赤字，各国手里的 美元资产越来越不安全。 而黄金不一样，高盛一句话点透了："一旦将黄金 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/11/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline after reaching a near two-week high, as investors assess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with market bets on rate cuts increasing significantly [1][6]. Market Performance - Spot gold fell by 0.1%, trading around $4158 [2]. - Since hitting a record high of $4381.21 on October 20, gold has retreated approximately 5% but remains above the critical $4000 level [4]. Analyst Insights - Carsten Menke from Julius Baer expects the consolidation in gold prices to continue, as the effects of the previous correction have not been fully digested [4]. - Factors supporting gold prices include a slowing U.S. economy leading to lower interest rates, a weak dollar, ongoing safe-haven demand, and strong central bank purchases [4]. Federal Reserve Signals - The Federal Reserve has sent mixed signals regarding the timing and extent of rate cuts, increasing demand for hedging in overnight interest rate-related options and derivatives [4]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 85%, up from 30% a week prior, according to CME FedWatch data [6]. Future Price Predictions - Bank of America projects a target price of $5000 per ounce for gold, indicating a potential increase of 19% from current levels, driven by persistent fundamental forces [8]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates a price of $4900 per ounce by the end of next year, reflecting a 17% increase [9]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts gold could reach $4950 per ounce by 2026, suggesting an 18% upside potential [13]. - HSBC offers a more moderate outlook, predicting gold prices will fluctuate between $3600 and $4400 per ounce by 2026, with the upper limit indicating a 5% increase [15]. Demand Drivers - Central bank purchases are expected to remain strong, particularly as countries seek to diversify reserves in light of geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The anticipated global rate cuts are expected to enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [11].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, leading to price fluctuations at high levels, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve providing core support for gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen significantly from approximately 30%-40% to over 80% due to supportive comments from key officials [1]. - Geopolitical developments, such as progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, have diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, contrasting with the dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term drivers for gold and silver prices remain robust, supported by macroeconomic factors such as sovereign debt issues and central bank gold purchases [2]. Group 2: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce next year, driven by sustained demand from central banks and ETFs, as well as a potential influx of retail investors seeking diversification [3]. - Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast for 2026 from $4,000 to $4,450 per ounce, citing stable investor flows and strong central bank demand, while also noting that total demand continues to exceed supply [4]. - The bank predicts that ETF inflows will help maintain a price floor of $3,900 for gold in the coming year, although risks remain regarding the correlation between gold and risk assets [4].

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to continue its record-setting rally, with forecasts suggesting a potential increase of up to 20% by 2026, following a significant year-to-date rise of 57% [1][2]. Group 1: Price Predictions - Bank of America predicts gold could reach $5,000 an ounce by next year, indicating a 19% increase from current levels, driven by factors like growing US deficit spending and macroeconomic policies [4]. - Goldman Sachs estimates gold may hit $4,900 an ounce by the end of next year, reflecting a 17% increase, supported by persistent bullish factors [5]. Group 2: Bullish Factors - Increased central bank buying is a significant driver, as central banks seek to diversify their reserves into gold, perceived as a safe asset following geopolitical tensions [7]. - Anticipated cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, estimated at around 75 basis points, are expected to boost investment in gold as a non-yielding asset, with similar actions anticipated from other central banks globally [7].

Core Insights - The global central banks' gold purchasing pace appears to be slowing down, with a reported 166 tons purchased in Q2 2025, a 21% decrease compared to the same period last year, marking the lowest quarterly gold purchase level since Q2 2022 [1][3][8] - Despite the overall slowdown, certain central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue to increase their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for seven consecutive months, reaching 7.383 million ounces by the end of May [1][5][6] Group 1: Central Bank Purchasing Trends - In Q1 2025, global central banks experienced a net sale of 243.67 tons of gold, the first instance of net selling [3] - The total gold purchases for the first half of 2025 amounted to 415 tons, down 21% from 525 tons in the same period of 2024 [3][12] - Poland's central bank emerged as the largest buyer in Q2, adding 19 tons to its reserves [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, has contributed to the reduced enthusiasm for gold purchases among central banks [8] - As of Q2 2025, gold accounted for 19% of global official reserves, surpassing the euro's 16% and trailing only the dollar's 47% [8] Group 3: Future Outlook and Sentiment - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks expect their gold reserves to increase in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [10] - The motivations for holding gold include performance during crises (85%), portfolio diversification (81%), and long-term value storage (80%) [10] - Metals Focus forecasts that global central banks are likely to purchase 1,000 tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of significant purchases, despite a slight decrease from the previous year's record [12] Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The trend of diversification away from the dollar is expected to continue, with 73% of central banks anticipating a moderate or significant decline in the dollar's share of global reserves over the next five years [15] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties may further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, potentially driving prices higher [13]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is currently experiencing a slight downward trend, with prices fluctuating around $4,127.63 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.13% [1]. Group 1: Gold Supply and Demand - Gold production is stable, with a total above-ground gold supply projected to reach 216,000 tons by 2024, and a compound annual growth rate of 1.5% from 1960 to 2024 [2]. - The main demand drivers for gold are central bank purchases, investment, and jewelry manufacturing, with central bank purchases becoming a key driver in recent years [2]. - In 2024, the demand structure is expected to consist of 24% from central banks, 26% from investments, and 44% from jewelry manufacturing, with the remainder from technology [2]. - Central bank gold purchases increased from 450 tons in 2021 to 1,089 tons in 2024, while investment demand rose from 1,107 tons to 1,181 tons during the same period [2]. - However, central bank purchases have started to decline as gold prices rise, with a 13% year-on-year decrease in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited significant volatility recently, with prices initially rising before facing resistance around the 4,100 mark, then rebounding from a strong support level at 4,087 [4]. - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with key focus areas being the upper line and upper channel region on the daily chart [4]. - Current support levels for gold are concentrated around 4,105 and 4,117 [5].

Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation for a rate cut in December has increased, providing short-term support for precious metals [1] - There is a significant divergence in views within the Federal Reserve, contributing to a weak performance in the U.S. stock market and affecting gold prices [2] - Central bank purchases of gold are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the long term, despite short-term fluctuations [3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Minmetals Futures indicates that the expectation of a dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve has significantly rebounded, leading to strong short-term support for precious metals [1] - According to Everbright Futures, the end of the U.S. government shutdown did not sustain market optimism, resulting in a lack of upward momentum for gold prices [2] - Asset Strategies International forecasts that gold prices will continue to rise next year, supported by ongoing central bank purchases [3] Group 2: Key Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold and silver prices are driven by long-term factors such as sovereign debt issues, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases, which remain robust despite short-term adjustments [2] - Rich Checkan from Asset Strategies International believes that the recent decline in gold prices may have been overdone, with solid support expected for future price increases [3] - Blue Line Futures highlights three key factors that will continue to drive gold prices upward, including central banks diversifying away from the dollar, increased investor interest in gold, and a favorable stagflation environment [3]

Core Insights - Gold prices have retreated to around $4000 from a recent peak of $4380, indicating a stable market despite the decline [1][2] - Strong investment demand and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market [1][2] - The U.S. labor market, inflation, and consumer spending risks are balanced, suggesting a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1][2] - Factors such as economic slowdown, high stock market valuations, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to sustain investment demand and central bank gold purchases [1][2] - Silver continues to outperform gold, with the gold-silver price ratio dropping to 80 [1][2] - Retail investment growth in October has tightened the supply in the spot market, contributing to silver's strength [1][2]