中共中央政治局召开会议 决定召开二十届四中全会 分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作 中共中央总书记习近平主持会议 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会 第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经 济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发 展环境面临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多，同时我国经济 基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主 义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，要保持战 略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识变应变求变，集中力量办好自己的事，在激烈国际竞争中赢得 战略主动，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破。 稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国际双循 环，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官 ...

Group 1 - The meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in October, focusing on the report of work and the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development [1] - The "15th Five-Year" period is identified as a critical time for achieving socialist modernization, with both strategic opportunities and risks present in the current economic environment [1][2] - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain strategic determination and confidence, adapt to changes, and focus on domestic matters to gain strategic initiative in international competition [1][2] Group 2 - Economic development during the "15th Five-Year" period should adhere to Marxism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, and Xi Jinping's Thought, aiming for a modern socialist strong country and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation [2] - The meeting acknowledged that under the strong leadership of the Party, the economy has shown resilience and positive performance in key indicators, with high-quality development making new progress [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a stable macroeconomic policy, promoting domestic and international dual circulation, and achieving the annual economic and social development goals [3] Group 3 - The meeting called for deepening reforms, promoting technological innovation, and fostering new competitive industries to enhance economic vitality [4] - It emphasized the need for high-level opening up to stabilize foreign trade and investment, while supporting foreign trade enterprises affected by external shocks [4] - The meeting also stressed the importance of safeguarding people's livelihoods, prioritizing employment, and ensuring food security and disaster response [5]

Group 1 - Current macro policies have laid the foundation for a "structural bull market," but full recovery of investor sentiment will take time [1] - Historical bull markets require three elements: favorable macro policies, market conditions, and improved investor sentiment [1] - The shift from cautious to proactive macro policies is expected to boost liquidity and restore confidence among businesses and investors [1] Group 2 - Institutional investors have shifted from active trading to a more passive and cautious approach, which may hinder sustained market improvement [2] - Many new retail investors are engaging in short-term trading strategies, indicating a need for market maturation before a significant rally can occur [2] - Current economic data shows slow improvement, and there is still a significant amount of untapped capital waiting to enter the market [2] Group 3 - In the context of increasing global economic uncertainty, investors are advised to maintain a rational and steady investment approach [3] - The company emphasizes its commitment to serving the real economy and providing high-quality, responsive trading channels for investors [3]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-30 市场情绪好转，钢价震荡偏强 钢材：市场情绪好转，钢价震荡偏强 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3347元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3503元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体偏好，投机 和期现收货积极，昨日全国建材成交12.2万吨。 供需与逻辑：建材产销基本稳定，库存变化不大，然而整体表现略好于季节性，同时随着成本不断上移，建材价 格上涨。板材产量下降，基本面表现优于季节性，出口对于板材消费拉动明显。近期反内卷、扩内需，稳增长等 一系列政策密集提出，提振市场情绪，盘面连续拉涨，整体看钢材基本面表现尚佳。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁矿石成交较好，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交106.4万吨，环比下跌5.42%；远期现货累计成 交163.0万吨，环比上涨36.97%。 综合来看，供给方面，7月份铁矿石发运存 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-30 宏观扰动仍存，氯碱震荡整理 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5192元/吨（+43）；华东基差-172元/吨（-83）;华南基差-132元/吨（-43）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价5020元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价5060元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格535元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润62元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-134元/吨（+181）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-506元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润-17.1美元/吨（+11.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存35.7万吨（-1.0）；PVC社会库存42.7万吨（+1.6）；PVC电石法开工率79.21%（+1.69%）； PVC乙烯法开工率66.95%（-1.36%）；PVC开工率75.81%（+0.84%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量79.5万吨（+9.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2642元/吨（+49）；山东32%液碱基差-48元/吨（-49）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨（+0）；山东50 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectation and weakening demand" in non - US regions after the 232 investigation. The short - term copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The price is supported by domestic macro - policies and low inventory, but the demand is weak due to price rebound and the traditional off - season. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78000 - 80000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price may rebound due to supply tightness in the ore end and low inventory of futures warrants, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the long run. It is recommended to be cautious about the squeeze - out risk and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in the range of 20200 - 21000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation where the demand is suppressed by the off - season, and the price is restricted by weak demand but has limited downward space due to high scrap aluminum costs. The main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19600 - 20400 [4]. Zinc - The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long run, but the short - term price rebounds due to positive macro - policies. However, the off - season demand and supply pressure limit the upward space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22000 - 23000 [8]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush. The price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [12]. Nickel - The nickel market shows a weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment has no obvious improvement. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the supply of refined nickel is increasing. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 128000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market has a slow - moving spot demand. The price is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13200 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has increased supply - side uncertainties, and the trading focus has shifted to the ore end. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79025 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 316 yuan/ton, up 25.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20620 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is 87.4 yuan/ton, up 1662 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22570 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1637 yuan/ton, up 73.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: The price of SMM 1 tin is 266100 yuan/ton, down 1.00% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 17714.03 yuan/ton, up 1360.71 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1316 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 12900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73150 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) is 2690 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan/ton from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% from the previous month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% [8]. - **Tin**: In June, the domestic tin ore import was 11911 tons, SMM refined tin production was 13810 tons, and the average smelting plant operating rate was 57.30% [12]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production in June was 31800 tons, down 10.04% from the previous month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in June was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% from the previous month; the demand was 93836 tons, down 0.15% [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass futures showed a V-shaped trend today. The market has significant differences in the future direction of glass futures. In the short term, it is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillatory and bullish pattern. Investors need to closely monitor changes in supply - demand relationships, policy trends, and capital flows [3][4] - A-share market: After the three major A-share indices opened lower today, they declined and then closed with a small positive line. With the implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [7][8] - Gold: Although the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment in gold, the long - term outlook remains positive. Currently, the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is likely to restart its upward trend, showing an oscillatory upward tendency [11][12] - Iron ore: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and investors should operate cautiously, protect profits, and wait for stabilization [15][16] - Palm oil: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures - Market performance: Glass futures showed a V - shaped trend today. The morning session declined due to market sentiment and fundamental factors, and rebounded in the afternoon [3] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, the daily melting volume of glass is at a relatively high level, and supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still sluggish, and downstream demand for glass has not improved significantly. Although there is some speculative demand, it is difficult to form effective support [3] - Outlook: If there are favorable policies for the real - estate market or measures for glass industry capacity regulation, it may change the current supply - demand expectations and push up glass futures prices. If demand remains weak and the high - inventory problem cannot be solved, the upward space of glass futures will be limited, or it may continue to decline [4] - Technical analysis: The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs. Factory inventories are gradually decreasing, but the replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong. Fundamentals have not changed significantly. Recently, the trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Today, it was consolidating at a low level, and investors should operate cautiously and wait for stabilization [20][21] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower today, declined, and then closed with a small positive line [8] - News influence: The implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system, with an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per person, stimulates consumption. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [7][8] 3.3 Gold - Market influence: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year, leading to an adjustment in gold [12] - Technical analysis: The long - term outlook for gold remains positive. Currently, the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is likely to restart its upward trend, showing an oscillatory upward tendency [11][12] 3.4 Iron Ore - Market environment: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state [16] - Technical analysis: It rebounded slightly today. Investors should operate cautiously, protect profits, and wait for stabilization [15] 3.5 Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [24] - Negative factors: Weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum of the market [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, leading to significant declines in coking coal and coke prices, while steel, iron ore, and thermal coal prices are showing oscillatory trends [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,248 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil main contract closed at 3,397 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 101,000 tons. Building materials production and sales are basically stable, with little change in inventory, and the overall performance is slightly better than the seasonal average. As costs continue to rise, building materials prices are increasing. Plate production has declined, and the fundamentals are better than the seasonal average, with exports significantly boosting plate consumption. Recently, a series of policies such as anti-involution, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing growth have been intensively proposed, boosting market sentiment and causing the futures market to rise continuously. However, with the sharp decline in coking coal on Friday night, the market sentiment has cooled down to some extent. Overall, the current fundamentals of the steel market are still good [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined weakly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and most quotes were adjusted according to the market. The total iron ore trading volume at major ports across the country was 1.125 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.61%. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipments rebounded slightly this period, with a total shipment volume of 32.009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 918,000 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 ports this period was 22.405 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.307 million tons. In July, there is a seasonal decline in iron ore shipments, but due to the recent increase in iron ore prices, the supply support is stronger than in previous years. In terms of demand, the current hot metal production remains at a high level, and there are no large - scale maintenance plans for steel mills in the short term, so the consumption and demand for iron ore are resilient. In terms of inventory, there is no obvious increase in port inventory. Overall, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are good. In the short term, after the price increase, the market sentiment has cooled down to some extent. In the future, attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production and the floating volume of iron ore at sea [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures were weak throughout the day, and the main contracts of both coking coal and coke hit the daily limit down. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has gradually recovered to a high level recently, and there is an expectation of supply restoration. For coking coal, affected by safety and environmental inspections, there are still disruptions in mine - end supply, but the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased, and future supply restoration needs to be monitored. In terms of demand, the hot metal production remains at a high level, providing rigid support for coking coal. The price increase has attracted speculative demand and driven consumption. For coke, the third round of price increases has been implemented, compressing the profits of coking enterprises, but the demand remains stable supported by the high - level hot metal production. Currently, the market sentiment has subsided, black building materials prices have generally declined, and terminal demand has weakened due to seasonal factors [5][6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are recommended to adopt an oscillating strategy, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, increased rainfall has affected production and sales, resulting in mixed price changes and a cooling of the price - support sentiment. At ports, there is a structural shortage of coal. After the downstream's phased rigid - demand procurement is completed, as the high - temperature range gradually expands, the daily consumption is gradually increasing. Traders are optimistic about the peak - season market, and market quotes are rising. In terms of imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal is inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, resulting in low liquidity. Indonesian low - calorie coal has obvious cost - performance advantages, and there are many downstream tenders [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the weekly market conditions of polyolefins (including plastics, PP, and propylene), with a focus on price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Overall, the upward driving force of the fundamentals is insufficient, and it suggests partial reduction of long positions. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Review and Outlook - **2025 - Week 30 Macro Review**: The commodity index and 3P showed certain fluctuations. The whole - week increase was PVC > energy - chemicals > polyolefins > commodities. The market continued to trade on anti - involution policies. PE, PP, and PVC had coal - based proportions of 21%, 23%, and 70% respectively, and old - capacity proportions of 14%, 8%, and 11% respectively [12]. - **2025 - Week 31 Macro Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, anti - involution policies, and US tariff changes. Plastic Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The L2509 contract fluctuated between [7224, 7483] this week, with the price rising driven by multiple news on Friday. The closing price was 7456 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [15][19]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will increase by 30,000 tons. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past 5 years [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory replenishment willingness is insufficient, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The agricultural film start - up rate has improved marginally [4]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially reduce long positions. Focus on the interval [7200 - 7500] for L2509. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold the long LP09 arbitrage. - **Hedging**: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [5]. PP Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated between [7023, 7239] this week, with the price rising driven by news on Friday. The closing price was 7221 yuan/ton, and the position decreased [56][60]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: It is expected that next week's production will rise to 790,000 tons, and the basis and monthly spread have continued to weaken, with the warehouse receipts reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [7]. - **Demand**: The downstream start - up rate remains at around 50%, and the plastic - weaving start - up rate has continued to decline [78][80]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [7050 - 7300] for PP2509. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the long PP9 - 1 spread or MTO position opportunistically. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the low basis [8]. Propylene Weekly Fundamental Analysis - **Market Performance**: In the first week of propylene's listing, it fluctuated strongly, with the PL01 contract fluctuating between [6501, 6708]. As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton week - on - week [89][92]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The PDH start - up rate has increased marginally, and the factory inventory is at a high level year - on - year. The supply pressure will continue to increase in the future [93][95]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate has decreased marginally. Most downstream industries maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy [10]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Partially take profit on long positions. Focus on the interval [6500 - 6700] for PL2601. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the short PL1 - 2 spread. - **Hedging**: Choose the opportunity to sell - hedge due to the premium of the futures price [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks and trading suggestions for multiple commodities and financial products, including methanol, gold, steel, coal, etc., based on their current market data and supply - demand situations [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Methanol - Market data: Jiangsu Taicang methanol market price is 2488 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; port inventory is 72.58 tons, down 6.44 tons weekly; production enterprise inventory is 33.98 tons, down 1.25 tons weekly; order to be delivered is 24.48 tons, up 0.17 tons weekly; capacity utilization is 83.98%, up 1.56% weekly; downstream capacity utilization is 73.12%, down 0.49% weekly [2]. - Outlook: Domestic methanol production expected to rise, downstream demand stable. Port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 2460. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. Gold - Market news: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment and $150 billion of US energy products [2]. - Outlook: US - EU tariff negotiations may be smooth, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index has limited upward momentum, which is positive for gold. Gold is still bearish in a range but may rebound in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar's movement [2]. Rebar - Market data: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operation rate is 83.46%, unchanged from last week; capacity utilization is 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points; profitability is 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points; daily pig iron output is 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons [4]. - Outlook: In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Low inventory and strong raw materials provide support. Prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the prices of furnace materials [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: For 247 steel mills, daily coke output is 47.16 tons, up 0.07 tons; capacity utilization is 86.97%, up 0.13%; coke inventory is 639.98 tons, up 0.99 tons; coking coal inventory is 799.51 tons, up 8.41 tons; injection coal inventory is 419.44 tons, up 2.99 tons [5]. - Outlook: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures, causing a sharp drop in the market. Market participants will return to rationality. Further price increases require unexpected macro - policies. Suggestion is to participate in short - term range trading [5]. Iron Ore - Market data: Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory is 8885.22 tons, up 63.06 tons; daily consumption is 301.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.51 days, up 0.22 days [6]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, demand is slightly declining, and port inventory may decrease slightly. The upward momentum of ore prices is weakening, and the risk of correction is increasing. Wide - range fluctuations continue [6]. Soda Ash - Market data: National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1350.5 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; weekly output is 72.38 tons, down 1.28%; total inventory is 186.46 tons, down 2.15%; float glass operation rate is 75.68%, unchanged; average price is 1219 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; inventory is 6189.6 million weight boxes, down 4.69% [6]. - Outlook: Float glass operation is stable, inventory is decreasing, and prices are rising. The domestic soda ash market is strengthening in a range. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 1455. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of July 25, the number of US active drilling rigs is 415, the lowest since September 2021, down 7 from the previous week and 67 from the same period last year [7]. - Outlook: OPEC+ will decide on September's crude oil quota next weekend. There is a high probability of completing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase of 300,000 barrels per day. If the production increase is fully realized, there will be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, and crude oil prices are expected to be weak in a range. Suggestion is to wait and see [7]. Bottle Chips - Market data: Weekly production is 32.23 tons, down 0.28 tons; price in the East China market is 5991 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; industry profit is - 225.39 yuan/ton, down 16.95%; downstream soft - drink industry operation rate is expected to be stable at 85 - 95%, and oil refinery operation rate may rise slightly to 67% [8]. - Outlook: Supply is decreasing, providing some support, but downstream stocking willingness is low. Crude oil is fluctuating. A range - trading approach is suggested for bottle chips [8]. Plastic - Market data: North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7358 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; weekly production is 26.96 tons, down 2.98%; enterprise inventory is 17.26 tons, down 4.22%; daily production profit from oil - based is - 425 yuan/ton; average operation rate of downstream products is down 0.1%, with the agricultural film operation rate up 0.2% and PE packaging film operation rate down 0.5% [8]. - Outlook: LLDPE supply may increase, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is supported by costs. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 7410. Suggestion is to wait and see [8]. Rubber - Market data: Thai raw rubber prices are 55.3 Thai baht/kg for glue and 50 Thai baht/kg for cup lump. As of July 24, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises is 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; for full - steel tire enterprises, it is 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous week and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - Outlook: Global rubber production areas have normal weather. Rubber inventory in China is slightly decreasing. The domestic tire industry is recovering, but finished - product inventory is high, and consumer demand has limited impact on prices. A range - trading approach is suggested, and attention should be paid to the development of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict [9]. Live Pigs - Market data: As of July 25, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123.67 kg, up 0.18 kg; weekly slaughter operation rate is 26.77%, up 0.17%; profit from purchasing piglets is - 117.52 yuan/head, down 45.68 yuan/head; self - breeding profit is 72.1 yuan/head, down 42.76 yuan/head; piglet price is 444.76 yuan/head, unchanged from last week [10]. - Outlook: Pig prices are stable and slightly rising. Farmers' willingness to hold prices is increasing, but the high - temperature off - season continues, and there is no strong upward momentum in the short - term. There are strong policy expectations. Suggestion is to short at appropriate times. Farmers can sell hedging according to their slaughter plans [10]. Palm Oil - Market data: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are 1,029,585 tons, down 104,645 tons or 9.23% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec Agri, exports are 896,484 tons, down 160,982 tons or 15.22% [11]. - Outlook: The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy lacks a solid foundation, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are decreasing. The domestic market shows a deeper inversion of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and terminal demand is weak. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in a high - level range in the short - term [11]. Soybean Meal - Market data: In the 30th week (July 19 - 25), oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2389 million tons, and the operation rate is 62.94%, 380 tons higher than expected [12]. - Outlook: The news of the Ministry of Agriculture's plan to reduce pig production and promote soybean meal substitutes put pressure on the market. Unpriced contracts at the end of the month provide some support, but high inventory continues to suppress spot prices. The M09 contract is expected to be weak in a range in the short - term [12]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Market data: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. New - energy industries represented by equipment manufacturing had rapid profit growth [12]. - Outlook: The economy still has resilience. Before the July Politburo meeting, the start of the Yajiang Hydropower Station indicates an increase in fiscal support in the second half of the year. Policy factors are negative for the bond market. The bond market's main logic is unclear. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the July Politburo meeting [12]. Silver - Market data: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.4% [13]. - Outlook: This week will enter the expected market for the July Fed meeting, and market expectations are still low. Non - farm payroll data will provide further guidance. Silver is expected to be slightly bearish in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the synchronization of gold and silver prices and the impact of gold on silver [13].