Core Viewpoint - The domestic coking coal market is currently in a state of weak supply-demand balance, with prices showing a fluctuating trend influenced by multiple factors including fundamentals, policy disturbances, and macro sentiment [1] Supply Side - The recovery pace of coking coal supply is stable, with domestic coal mines gradually returning to normal production levels after the National Day holiday [2] - Import channels have resumed normal operations, with significant increases in Mongolian coal imports expected due to a trial of full-load transportation mode [2] - The international forward market remains stable, with Australian premium coking coal prices holding at $205.5 per ton, while Russian coal markets are stable with active inquiries but a cautious outlook [2] Demand Side - Overall, there is still support from rigid demand, but the purchasing pace from downstream sectors has slowed [3] - Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills remains high at 241.54 million tons, indicating that the rigid demand for coking coal has not completely disappeared [3] - Steel prices are under pressure, which may weaken the overall demand for coking coal [3] Inventory Situation - Upstream coal mine inventories have seen a slight accumulation, but the pressure is not significant, with raw coal inventory at 4.4635 million tons and washed coal inventory at 1.959 million tons [4] - The inventory levels are relatively low compared to the annual average, and the accumulation is attributed to normal purchasing pauses during the holiday rather than weak demand [4] - Downstream sectors are continuing to reduce inventories, which supports coking coal prices [4] External Factors - The macro environment is providing support for the market, with coal and coke prices continuing to show a fluctuating trend without significant volatility [5] - The recovery of domestic coal production to pre-holiday levels is limited in further incremental space, and regulatory policies may constrain supply [5] - The short-term supply pressure is manageable, with high pig iron production levels maintaining some rigid demand for coking coal [5]

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices, indicating steady economic performance and positive outcomes in high-quality development [1] Economic Performance - In the first quarter, GDP grew by 5.4%, in the second quarter by 5.2%, and in the third quarter by 4.8%. Despite a 0.4 percentage point decline in the third quarter compared to the second, this growth rate remains significantly higher than that of most major economies [2] - The fundamentals of the Chinese economy are strong, with stable operational support remaining unchanged [2] Sectoral Contributions - Agricultural value added increased by 3.6%, industrial value added grew by 6.2%, and service sector value added rose by 5.4% in the first three quarters [5] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 36,587.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, while manufacturing investment increased by 4.0% [5] - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 33,607.8 billion yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [5] Investment and Consumption - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5%, indicating a significant impact on overall economic performance [5] - Manufacturing innovation is evident, and policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are showing positive results [5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will remain resilient in the fourth quarter, with consumer demand expected to recover steadily [7] - New policy financial tools and fiscal measures are anticipated to support local governments in achieving economic and social development goals [7] - The government aims to implement more proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, promoting sustained and healthy economic development [7]

成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：铁矿石延续弱势 关注宏观政策增量 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 21 日 逻辑：昨日碳元素因供给端扰动，价格相对强势，成材价格短期有所企稳但整体价格重心 下移，铁矿石价格相对弱势，创出 7 月份高点以来新低。整体看，黑色系情绪依然偏弱，短期 关注国内宏观政策增量。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：外矿发运环比小幅回升，其中澳洲力拓、FMG 发运回升相对显著，巴西发运相对 平稳。到港量创今年来新高后回归中位水平，整体看，供给端支撑力度仍持续减弱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with inventory slightly decreasing [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The US government shutdown has lasted 20 days, delaying key economic data release and creating a data vacuum before the Fed's policy meeting [2] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level. Shanxi reduced production by 400,000 tons due to rainy - season supply issues, but there is still an oversupply. Some high - cost enterprises are in the red, but the industry as a whole still has a profit margin. The spot market is in a state of loose supply, and the alumina price is expected to remain weak [3] - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, cable, and profile have different operating rate trends and face various challenges [3] - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [3]

国债期货日报 | 2025-10-21 LPR保持不变，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体 列入出口管制清单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告；10 月11日，特朗普于社交媒体发文称，从11月1日起将对中国加征100%关税。（2）通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：财政：本次财政数据整体呈现"收入温和修复、支出强 ...

"总的来看，前三季度稳就业稳经济政策举措接续发力，主要宏观指标总体平稳，经济运行保持稳中有 进态势，高质量发展取得积极成效。也要看到，当前经济运行仍面临不少风险挑战，外部不稳定不确定 因素较多，国内经济回升向好基础仍需加力巩固。"国家统计局新闻发言人表示，下阶段，要推动更加 积极有为的宏观政策落地增效，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，扎实推动高质量发展，促进经 济持续健康发展。 国家统计局20日发布数据显示，初步核算，前三季度我国国内生产总值（GDP）为1015036亿元，按不 变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。分季度看，一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，二季度同比增长5.2%，三季度同 比增长4.8%。从环比看，三季度国内生产总值增长1.1%。 国家统计局新闻发言人表示，受多种因素共同作用，三季度GDP增速回落，但经济稳中有进发展态势没 有变。三季度，我国经济总量达35.5万亿元，超过了全球第三大经济体2024年全年经济总量；城镇调查 失业率与上年同期持平，核心CPI同比涨幅持续扩大，PPI降幅连续两个月收窄；货物进出口总额同比增 长6.0%，外汇储备连续两个月增加；经济转型升级态势持续。实现全年目标仍有较多有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy shows steady growth with a GDP increase of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating a positive trend in economic performance despite external challenges [1][2][3] Economic Performance - GDP growth reached 39,679 billion yuan, an increase of 1,368 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3 [1] - The average urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2% [1] Price and Consumption - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% [1] - The core CPI increased by 1.0% in September, marking a continuous expansion over five months, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [1] International Trade and Foreign Exchange - The foreign trade sector demonstrated resilience, with import and export volumes reaching historical highs, and the growth rate improving quarterly [1] - As of September, foreign exchange reserves remained above 3.3 trillion USD, with a stable appreciation of the RMB [1] Industrial Growth - The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries accounted for 35.9% and 16.7% of the total industrial added value, respectively [2] - Non-fossil energy consumption increased by approximately 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating progress in green and low-carbon transformation [2] Income and Employment - Per capita disposable income growth matched economic growth, with a reduction in the income gap between urban and rural residents [2] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing capital market activity [2][3] - Economic growth is expected to maintain momentum in Q4, with GDP growth projected between 5.0% and 5.2%, supported by structural monetary policies and stabilization in the real estate market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the steady progress of China's economy as reflected in the third quarter reports, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year and a resilient economic structure amid external challenges [3][4][9]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, GDP increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a total economic increment of 39,679 billion yuan, which is 1,368 billion yuan more than the previous year [4][9]. - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, remaining stable compared to the first half of the year, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% [4][9]. - The total import and export volume reached a historical high, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% in the third quarter [10]. High-Quality Development - The proportion of value added from high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing reached 16.7% and 35.9%, respectively, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [5]. - Non-fossil energy consumption increased by approximately 1.7 percentage points, reflecting progress in green and low-carbon transformation [5]. Economic Resilience - Despite external pressures and domestic demand challenges, China's economy grew by 5.2%, showcasing its resilience compared to other major economies [5][10]. - The manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating improved supplier delivery times [8][10]. Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has stabilized the economy and provided support for long-term growth [6][11]. - A total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds were allocated to stimulate consumer demand, contributing to a 53.5% growth rate in final consumption expenditure [7]. Future Outlook - The third quarter's GDP growth of 4.8% remains higher than most major economies, with favorable conditions for achieving annual targets [9][10]. - Positive indicators, such as rising industrial product prices and increased consumer activity during holidays, suggest ongoing economic vitality [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy shows steady growth with a GDP increase of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating a positive trend in economic performance despite external challenges [1][2][3] Economic Performance - GDP growth for the first three quarters reached 39,679 billion yuan, an increase of 1,368 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3, reflecting a slight deceleration in the third quarter [1] Employment and Prices - The average urban unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2%, consistent with the first half of the year [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight decrease of 0.1%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6%, indicating effective policies to boost domestic demand [1] International Trade and Foreign Reserves - China's foreign trade demonstrated resilience, with import and export volumes reaching historical highs, and foreign exchange reserves maintained above 3.3 trillion USD [1][2] - The "new three samples" products experienced double-digit export growth, contributing to the diversification of export markets [2] Industrial Growth - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing accounted for 35.9% and 16.7% of the total industrial added value, respectively [2] - Non-fossil energy consumption increased by approximately 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting progress in green and low-carbon transformation [2] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing capital market activity [2][3] - Economic growth is expected to continue in Q4, with GDP growth projected between 5.0% and 5.2%, supported by structural monetary policies and stabilization in the real estate market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in the first three quarters of 2023 shows a stable growth trend, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year, indicating resilience and progress despite external challenges [2][5][10]. Economic Growth - The GDP for the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a total economic increment of 39,679 billion yuan, which is 1,368 billion yuan more than the previous year [2][9]. - In the third quarter, GDP growth was 4.8% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1%, reflecting a slight recovery from the second quarter [1][9]. Employment and Prices - The average urban unemployment rate for the first three quarters remained stable at 5.2%, consistent with the first half of the year [2][10]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% [2][10]. International Trade - The external trade demonstrated strong resilience, with the total import and export volume reaching a historical high for the same period, and a year-on-year growth of 6.0% in the third quarter [2][10]. - Foreign exchange reserves remained above 3.3 trillion USD, with a stable appreciation of the RMB [2][10]. Industrial Performance - The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries accounted for 35.9% and 16.7% of the total industrial added value, respectively [4]. - Key physical indicators showed stable growth, with industrial electricity generation increasing by 1.6% year-on-year [2][4]. Policy Impact - The proactive macroeconomic policies have effectively supported economic stability and long-term growth, with a contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reaching 53.5%, an increase of 9.0 percentage points from the previous year [6][9]. - Investment in equipment and tools rose by 14.0% year-on-year, significantly contributing to overall investment growth [6][7]. Future Outlook - The economic growth in the first three quarters lays a solid foundation for achieving annual targets, with new productive forces expected to create new growth points [10][11]. - Positive indicators, such as the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) showing continuous recovery, suggest ongoing economic resilience and vitality [10][11].