一一五年 2025年12月29日 经营动户,外 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读: 1、 市场回顾与展望:近期Ａ股表现强劲,沪指已录得８连阳。板块方面,有色金属、国防军工、电 力设备涨幅居前;美容护理、社会服务和银行跌幅居前。从驱动来看,(1近期行情反弹首先是流动性宽松 预期重新升温。海外美国通胀数据低于预期,美联储宽松预期再度打开;国内方面也存在新年初发债增加 而可能降准的预期。此外,从交易性因素看,随着新一年的到来,机构资金仓位回补也可能带来增量资 金。2其次,每年一、二月份,经济数据、财报都将处于真空期。传统"两会"政策预期和年初政策、基 建项目往往营造开门红氛围,也存在正向利多带动。3商品市场贵金属、有色以及部分反内卷品种涨势强 劲,带动股市对应板块表现强势。赚钱效应改善,吸引股市资金回流,形成正反馈格局。近期Ａ股成交额 已重新回升。综合对比历史来看,流动性、政策、题材三大利多驱动共振,近期行情的确符合典型的春季 躁动拉升逻辑。 60 后期来看,需关注沪指临近4000 点整数关口及前高 4034点位置附近,若新增边际驱动不足,可能带 来突破压力。可能需要关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience a "cross-year + spring" rally, supported by favorable conditions such as liquidity and risk appetite [1][7][13] - Spring market conditions remain favorable due to loose liquidity, with private equity actively purchasing on dips and the appreciation of the RMB benefiting market liquidity [1][6] - Historical trends indicate that the A-share market typically experiences a "spring rally," and policy support is expected to continue, bolstering market confidence and attracting various funds [1][14] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to see a "systematic slow bull" trend, with a high level of confidence in the medium-term outlook, although short-term movements may require cautious observation [2][11] - The A500 ETF has shown significant net inflows, indicating stable incremental funds entering the market, despite potential seasonal outflows in the following quarter [12][7] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to resonate with the capital market, enhancing industry configurations and attracting foreign investment [10][9] Group 3 - The focus on structural opportunities in a volatile market suggests that sectors with low attention but high long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery, should be prioritized [3][15] - The "transformation bull" market is characterized by economic structural changes and capital market reforms, indicating a shift in investment focus towards emerging technologies and large financial institutions [5][4] - The market is likely to experience fluctuations, especially as the year-end approaches and companies begin to disclose annual performance forecasts, which may lead to a preference for large-cap value stocks [8][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market shows a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3963.68, up by 0.10% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.54%, closing at 13603.89, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.14% to 3243.88 [1] - The CSI 300 Index also saw a gain of 0.32%, ending at 4657.24, indicating a generally bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - The Chinese ETF market has reached a record high of 6.03 trillion yuan, marking an increase of over 60% year-to-date [23][24] - The Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, aiming to expand fiscal spending [21][22] - The People's Bank of China is focusing on creating a favorable environment for long-term investments in A-shares, aiming to increase the scale and proportion of various long-term funds [27][28] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The establishment of the Human Robot and Embodied Intelligence Standardization Technical Committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to promote the development of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence industry [29][30] - The total box office for Chinese films in 2025 reached 51.2 billion yuan, with over 1.22 billion viewers, setting new annual records [31][32] - The approval of 1771 games in 2025 marks the highest number in seven years, indicating a robust gaming industry [33] Group 4: Company Updates - Heng Rui Medicine has licensed its SHR6508 project rights in mainland China to Hansoh Pharmaceutical, receiving an upfront payment of 30 million yuan [39][40] - Chipmaker Chipone Technology reported a significant increase in new orders, totaling 2.494 billion yuan, a 129.94% increase compared to the previous year's fourth quarter [42] - Shengyi Technology announced an adjustment to its share repurchase price ceiling to no more than 144.36 yuan per share [43][44] - Jianlin Home has entered into a strategic partnership with Jieka Robotics to enhance its smart home offerings [45][46] Group 5: Regional Economic Developments - In Changsha, the import and export volume maintained growth, with "new three samples" products seeing an export increase of 86.7% [50][52] - The city reported a total import of 2.5944 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, reflecting a 2.7% year-on-year growth [51]

大家早上壕！ 先看海外要闻： 美股迎小幅调整，道指收跌0.04%、纳指收跌0.09%、标普500收跌0.03%；英伟达收涨1.02%、亚马逊收涨0.06%、特斯拉收跌2.10%、Meta、谷 歌A、苹果、微软至多跌0.64%。 全球多地的数据中心开发商正采用航空发动机衍生的涡轮机和化石燃料发电机进行发电。 白银期货涨超10%，创历史新高逼近80美元关口；现货铂金涨8.84%，刷新历史高位；现货钯金涨12.38%；纽约铜涨5%；周一亚市早盘白银再度 大涨逾5%。 芝商所12月26日发布重大保证金调整通知称，将于12月29日收盘后，全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种的履约保证金。 全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1071.13吨，较前一个交易日增加2.86吨。全球最大的白银ETF iShares Silver Trust持仓量为16390.56 吨，较前一个交易日减少56.41吨。 特朗普称俄乌"接近达成协议"，"20点和平计划"已95%谈妥。 国内重大事件汇总： 一周券商策略前瞻： 本周各家券商策略分析师整体依旧保持乐观。 华西策略李立峰团队称，岁末年初多头势力聚集，"春季躁动"行 ...

只余最后三个交易日，2025年即将落下帷幕。 本周，上证指数延续上周实现"八连涨"；中国ETF总规模突破6万亿再创历史新高；离岸人民币一度"破7 "……接连不断的 利好之下，各大券商也从不同视角给出对后市的看法。 2025年的行情将如何收官?2026年又将是哪些领域独占鳌头?请看本周十大券商策略，各大券商给出的最新观点。 | | 十大券商策略 | | --- | --- | | 中信证券 | 从创新高的ETF看跨年品种选择 | | 国泰海通 | 跨越,远望又新峰 | | 兴业证券 | 人民币"破7"后,行业如何配置? | | 东吴证券 | A股2026年十大预测 | | 中泰证券 | 如何看待本周市场持续上涨? | | 国金证券 | 新的主线浮出水面 | | 华西证券 | 岁末年初多头势力聚集,抢跑"春季躁动"行情 | | 中国银河 | A股或迎接跨年"小躁动"行情 | | 开源证券 | 8连阳后看本轮春季躁动的变化 | | 浙商证券 | 防挖坑、不追高、逢低配 | 中信证券：从创新高的ETF看跨年品种选择 360个行业/主题ETF当中，39个在12月创了新高。在有共识度的品种当中，老品种是通信和有色相关ET ...

Group 1 - The market's year-end rally is driven by three main expectations: optimistic outlook from institutional investors, completion of overseas AI model adjustments, and high policy expectations following the release of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3][4] - The A-share market has shown positive signals with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing an eight-day winning streak, indicating the start of the year-end rally [3][4][35] - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals and AI computing power, with commercial aerospace remaining the primary market hotspot, followed by secondary themes such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [3][4][15] Group 2 - The AI computing power industry is expected to benefit from NVIDIA's Rubin architecture upgrade, positively impacting sectors such as optical fibers, liquid-cooled servers, CPO, and storage chips [3][15][17] - Non-ferrous metals continue to maintain a rising trend, driven by price increases in lithium carbonate, silver, copper, and aluminum, with lithium and aluminum prices rising by 69% and 88% respectively over the past four months [20][34] - The 14th Five-Year Plan has led to heightened market policy expectations, with significant developments in sectors like new energy, new materials, quantum technology, mobile communication, and commercial aerospace [13][22][34] Group 3 - The year-end rally is anticipated to coincide with a seasonal "spring surge," which typically occurs between the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, with historical data showing a high probability of market gains during this period [8][41] - Recent improvements in overseas liquidity and risk appetite are attributed to a shift in the U.S. strategic focus away from China, easing tensions in U.S.-China relations, and ongoing advancements in the AI sector [10][41] - The release of numerous high-quality AI models has bolstered confidence in the AI industry, contributing to a favorable investment environment [11][10]

查看完整报告 特别申明： 点击注册小程序 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【策略】多重支撑护航，春季行情行稳致远——策略周专题（2025年12月第4期） 政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。一方面，历史来看，A股市场中几乎每 年都存在"春季躁动"行情；另一方面，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。 此外，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入。行业配置方面，结合往年规律及当 前市场环境，关注成长及消费板块；主题方面，可逢低关注商业航天概念。 （张宇生/郭磊）2025-12-27 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 （王招华/马俊）2025-12-28 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【有色】国家发改委强调对铜冶炼强化管理和 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周A股表现亮眼 本周A股主要宽基指数普遍收涨。从主要宽基指数来看，本周A股主要宽基指数普遍收涨，中证500、创业 板指、中小100涨幅相对较大，上证50、上证指数、沪深300涨幅相对较小。从估值来看，当前科创50、万 得全A等指数估值分位数相对偏高，截至2025年12月26日，其2010年以来PE(TTM)分位数均高于85%。 本周小盘成长风格占优，申万一级行业走势分化，有色金属、国防军工等行业涨幅靠前，而美容护理、社 会服务等行业跌幅居前。从市场风格来看，本周仅大盘价值小幅收跌，其余风格指数均收涨，小盘成长涨 幅靠前。行业方面，本周申万一级行业走势分化，有色金属、国防军工、电力设备、电子涨幅居前，美容 护理、社会服务、银行 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月28日招商：资金或提前布局"春季躁动"行情】12月28日，招商证券策略研报透露，当前已有重要 投资者持续增持A500ETF等宽基品种，为市场注入稳定增量资金。 虽A500ETF大幅净申购可能受季末 冲量影响，但该因素对资金面影响有限。且A500放量申购后，融资资金加速净流入。 随着市场学习效 应和赚钱效应积累，资金或提前布局"春季躁动"行情，增量资金有望继续净流入。 ...

大盘走出8连阳，周五放量收阳十字星，盘中出现跳水，收盘3963.68点，成交21601亿，外资继续休息。板块上海南自贸区，小金属等表现较强，次新， 消费电子，能源系列等表现较差。个股跌多涨少。 | स्टेसि | 开始时间 | 结束时间 | 天数 | 春季躁动收益率 全年收益率 | | 日均涨幅 | 期间指数走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2010 | 2010/2/8 | 2010/4/14 | 42 | 9.78% | - 6 8 | 0.23% | | | 2011 | 2011/1/25 | 2011/4/18 | રૂડે | 14.32% | -22.42% | 0.27% | | | 2012 | 2012/1/6 | 2012/3/2 | 36 | 15.20% | 4.68% | 0.42% | | | 2013 | 2012/12/4 | 2013/2/8 | 46 | 25.20% | 5.44% | 0.55R | | | 2014 | 2014/1/14 | 2014/2/19 | 22 | 9.60 ...