锡价回调，部分下游企业开始采购补库，现货升水维持700元/吨，国内库存小幅下降，海外去库明显。技 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 术面，持仓低位多空谨慎，面临MA60阻力，关注257000支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，参考25.7-26.4。 免责声明 沪锡产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 261880 | 1320 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32690 | 590 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 130 | -40 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 17549 | -985 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 1459 | -1007 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2175 | -25 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6965 | -142 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) ...

沪镍产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 117440 | -840 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -240 | 20 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15060 | 20 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 68780 | -4818 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -14667 | 21 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 204144 | -996 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 25304 | -389 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 13938 | -888 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 21478 | -191 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 119500 | -1125 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 119400 | -1200 | | | 上海电解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy, and market sentiment, indicating a potential bullish trend in the long term despite short-term volatility [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On June 23, gold opened over $20 higher but later fell, reaching a low of $3347.10 before recovering slightly to close at $3368.96, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $48.78 [1][3]. - The price was initially supported by geopolitical tensions but faced resistance due to profit-taking and comments from President Trump regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Iran [1][3]. - The outlook for June 24 suggests continued volatility, with gold prices expected to test previous lows while being supported by a declining U.S. dollar index [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. current account and consumer confidence index, are anticipated to positively impact gold prices [5]. - The article highlights that the market's focus is shifting back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economic impact of tariffs, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of prices potentially exceeding $4000 in the next year due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6][7]. - The technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a bullish trend, supported by moving averages, although there are concerns about a potential peak in the near term [9][11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance is considered to be in a "good place," with risks between the U.S. labor market and inflation targets becoming more balanced [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive time since the rate cut cycle began last September [3] - Federal Reserve officials generally anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with rising inflation pressures and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested that rate cuts could begin as early as July, while Mary Daly expressed a more cautious view, indicating that actions are more likely in the fall [5] - Daly emphasized that monetary policy adjustments should be based on actual economic data rather than preset paths, highlighting the challenges of communication within the Federal Reserve [5] - The Federal Reserve's future policy adjustments will heavily depend on key indicators such as inflation, employment, and economic growth, as the U.S. economy faces multiple challenges [7]

沪铜产业日报 2025/6/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,290.00 | +300.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,633.00 | -0.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 170.00 | -10.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 157,429.00 | -9453.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -1,365.00 | +381.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 99,200.00 | -4125.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 100,814.00 | -1129.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 44,800.00 | -4300.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 25,528.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 78,32 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 美联储按兵不动，铜铝震荡整理 ——铜铝周报2025.06.23 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：国内5月经济数据仍有韧性，美联储6月会议继续暂停降 | 沪铜2508合约 | | | | 息，关注中东局势和美国关税政策变化。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：从供应端来看，交易所仓单大量流出，俄罗斯低价货源 | 位80000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 在市场大量销售，但市场承接能力有限。库存方面，截至6月5日周 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 四，全国主流地区铜库存为14.6万吨，环比上升0.11万吨。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：铜矿紧张预期和美国对铜征收关税预期继续支持铜价， | | | | | 但关税对经济冲击 ...

南华贵金属日报: 中东局势混乱 美联储依然偏鹰 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月23日 【盘面回顾】 本周贵金属市场价格表现整体偏弱，其中黄金走势弱于白银，尽管动荡的中东地缘政局略微提升避险情 绪，但走高的油价以及美联储FOMC会议继续释放偏鹰降息信号，推升美指走强，并抑制贵金属价格。周四 凌晨召开的美联储6月FOMC会议，连续第四次维持为4.25%-4.5%基准利率不变，点阵图利率中值仍预计美 联储年内将降息2次，但上调26年和27年利率中值，且7/19官员认为25年维持利率不变；鲍威尔讲话则仍然 维持了继续等待观望的态度，主要基于对通胀前景的不确定性，而经济上尚无无迫切降息需求。周末期间中 东地缘政局加速升级，美国对伊朗三大核设施发动攻击；伊朗议会则批准关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最高安全机 构需要最终决定这一措施。其他方面，周二晚间公布的美零售销售月率-0.9%，低于预期-0.7%，且前值下 修。周二召开的日央行利率决议维持年内第三次按兵不动。 贵金属期现价格表 【资金与库存】 长线基金持仓看，上周SPDR黄金ETF持仓周增9.75吨至9 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the political turmoil in Thailand following the release of an 8-minute recording involving Prime Minister Petongtan, which may lead to her ousting after only 10 months in office [1] - The recording revealed Petongtan's private conversation with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, where she criticized the Thai military and sought to de-escalate border tensions, leading to public outrage and calls for her impeachment [3][7] - The political landscape in Thailand is characterized by a weak government facing strong military and royalist opposition, which complicates Petongtan's position and may result in further instability if she is removed [7][9] Group 2 - The current situation in Thailand mirrors the pre-1997 Asian financial crisis, with external debt exceeding 50% of GDP and household debt reaching 90%, indicating a precarious economic position [9] - The global economic downturn, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, poses risks for vulnerable economies like Thailand, which may struggle to recover from the pandemic and slow global demand [11] - The potential for increased military involvement in border conflicts with Cambodia could arise if the government becomes further weakened, reflecting broader regional tensions in Southeast Asia [9][11]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 年初以来，美股经历了过山车行情。尽管目前标普500指数已经自4月低谷重新回升至历史新高附近，然 而"最后一层窗户纸"却怎么也捅不破，标普500指数已经围绕6000点徘徊了约两周。 截至上周五收盘，标普500指数跌0.22%，报5967.84点；纳指跌0.51%，报19447.41点；道指涨0.08%， 报42206.82点。从一周表现来看，标普500指数跌0.15%、纳指涨0.21%、道指涨0.02%。 美联储鹰派冲击尚未消散，地缘冲突又起，接下来美股波动性或加剧。据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月 21日，美国投掷了六枚钻地弹用于袭击伊朗福尔多核设施，美国还向伊朗其他核设施发射了30枚"战 斧"导弹。美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊 斯法罕三处核设施的袭击。 鹰派美联储施压 在标普500指数连续三个交易日冲击6000点未果背后，相对鹰派的美联储是重要因素。 美联储还提及关税对主要金融市场的冲击。报告指出，国债、企业债、市政债和股票市场的运作依然有 序，但许多指标显示流动性仍处于历史低位。其中在4月初的冲击中，国债市场仍然正常运转 ...

黄金消息面解析：金价上周五持稳，但上周金价下跌1.8%。收盘于3368一线，最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）声明强化了美联储的谨慎立场，将利率 维持在4.25%–4.50%区间。但声明同时下调了今年预期的降息次数，这令金价承压下行，另外，美国国债收益率变化不大但小幅上升，反映出市场风险情绪 趋稳。10年期国债收益率上升超过2个基点，至4.421%，30年期国债收益率升至4.924%。收益率上升往往对黄金等无收益资产构成压力，进一步抑制金价上 行动能。美联储未立即启动宽松政策，加之美元走强和地缘风险紧迫性下降，均加剧了抛售压力。除非紧张局势再度升温或美联储意外转向，否则短期金价 预测指向进一步走弱。 黄金技术面分析：黄金自3500历史高位见顶回落至3120，连续拉高后因市场避险情绪减退，于3452再次承压回落；上周开盘3433一线，上周五最低至3340反 弹，收线于3368一线，周线收阴，但仍高于5周均线，日图录得一根十字星，K线组合排列偏空，但也守住了中轨支撑，如上图，4小时级别维持在一个上升 通道内运行，上周行情未能下破通道下沿线，下方空间无法进一步打开，行情在通道下沿线3340附近支撑反弹，暂时有止跌 ...