Group 1 - The gold market experienced increased volatility due to multiple factors, with spot gold prices dropping over 1% on Friday but still recording a weekly gain of 0.8%, indicating a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and a strengthening dollar [1] - The overall trend for the week was upward, driven by risk aversion, but prices fell sharply on Friday following stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data [1] - Spot gold closed at $3,316.13 per ounce on Friday, down 1.1%, while U.S. futures gold fell 0.8% to $3,346.60 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 139,000 non-farm jobs were added in May, exceeding market expectations of 130,000, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% [2] - Analyst Edward Meir indicated that the data suggests the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, with financial markets anticipating the earliest cut in September and only two cuts by 2025 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased, putting pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, spot gold is at a critical area, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and prices near the middle band at $3,296.92, indicating short-term pressure [2] - A drop below the middle band could test the lower band at $3,171.53, while a rebound could challenge the upper band at $3,422.30 [2] - The 50-period moving average at $3,234.79 provides support, but the MACD indicator shows insufficient bullish momentum, with short-term direction dependent on the middle band [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand, with recent developments indicating a potential for further price increases in the coming years [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - On June 5, silver prices experienced a sharp increase, with London silver reaching $36.053 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [3]. - The announcement by the Trump administration to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to heightened speculation that similar measures may be applied to other metals, including silver, thus increasing its demand as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Silver futures saw a significant increase in long positions, with total holdings rising by $2.8 billion, the largest two-day increase in the past year [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Demand - The recent economic uncertainty, highlighted by a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, has led to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3][6]. - Industrial demand for silver remains strong, particularly in clean energy technologies, with the silver market facing a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3][6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Considerations - Analysts predict that the price gap between silver and gold may narrow from the current 27 percentage points to 10-15 percentage points over the next 1-2 years, driven by various economic factors [6][7]. - The current gold-silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, suggesting that silver may be undervalued relative to gold, which could attract investors and drive prices higher [6][7].

白银正在抢夺黄金的光环。 周四现货白银一度暴涨4.5%，触及每盎司36美元整数关口的上方，创下2012年2月以来最高水平。 德国贵金属精炼商Heraeus Group高级交易员Alexander Zumpfe指出， 这轮涨势由技术动能、基本面改善和更广泛的投资者兴趣共同推动 。 Zumpfe表示： 在落后黄金数周后，白银现在正在迎头赶上，这表明趋势投资者重新燃起兴趣，正在轮动至白银。 过去12个月，受益于美国主导的关税战升级以及各国央行持续大举购金，黄金涨幅高达42%。相比之下，白银涨幅约15%，明显落后。 但周四的爆发性上涨正在缩小这一差距，交易所的白银交易基金出现显著资金流入，持仓量单日增加220万盎司。与此同时， 截至5月23日当周，资金管理公 司也增加了对Comex白银期货的看涨押注 。 分析指出，这种 资金流入模式往往预示着更大规模的趋势性行情。当避险需求从黄金扩散至白银时，通常意味着投资者对传统避险资产的需求已达到临界点， 开始寻求更具弹性的替代品 。 工业需求构筑底部支撑 与纯粹的货币属性黄金不同，白银具有双重属性——既是金融资产，也是工业原料。 作为工业原料，白银在清洁能源技术中扮演关键角色， ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong rally, with silver prices reaching a 13-year high and platinum hitting a two-year high, indicating investor enthusiasm for industrial precious metals [1] - As of Friday, spot silver continued its upward trend, having surged 4.5% the previous day, while platinum prices rose by 1.7% during the day, and gold also saw an increase [1] - The recent price increases are driven by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements, with strong physical silver demand in India and a recovery in platinum demand in China providing significant market support [1] Group 2 - Over the past 12 months, gold has risen over 40%, primarily supported by escalating global trade tensions and continued central bank purchases [1] - Although silver and platinum have year-to-date increases of approximately 19% and 13% respectively, they lag behind gold; however, their industrial properties are crucial drivers, with silver being a key material for solar panels and platinum widely used in internal combustion engines and catalytic converters [1] - Predictions indicate that both silver and platinum markets may face supply shortages this year [1] Group 3 - If silver can maintain a price above $35 per ounce, it may trigger increased retail investor interest; platinum ETF holdings have increased by over 3% since mid-May, indicating a return of funds to the market [1] - Silver ETFs have seen continuous inflows since February, with a nearly 8% increase in holdings [1] - Palladium prices also rose by 1.4% on Friday, influenced by market sentiment [1] Group 4 - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3,368.87 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.4%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index has slightly risen by 0.1% [2] - The market is focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, with an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims reinforcing expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The current precious metals rally reflects a blend of safe-haven demand and industrial recovery, with silver and platinum needing to maintain key price levels while monitoring ETF fund flows and economic data for sustainability of the upward trend [2]

6月6日亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，交投于3360美元/盎司附近。昨日金价一度突破3400美元关口，创四周新高至3403.28美元，但随后因中美领导人通话 释放贸易缓和信号，收盘下跌0.6%至3352.63美元。当前市场聚焦晚间美国非农就业数据，预计5月新增就业13万人，失业率维持4.2%。 | 昨收 | 3352.63 | 最高 | 3368.58 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3354.20 | | 3353.07 | | 买入 | 3362.26 | 卖出 | 3362.46 | 一、基本面解析：多空因素交织 贸易局势缓和压制避险需求 中美领导人通话释放积极信号，特朗普称双方在贸易问题上达成"非常积极的结论"，市场对关税冲突升级的担忧降温，黄金避险买盘减少。但分析师警告， 关税谈判的不确定性仍存，若后续谈判未达预期，避险需求可能迅速回升。 美国经济数据疲软支撑金价 上周初请失业金人数增至24.7万人，连续两周上升，显示劳动力市场放缓。同时，美国4月PCE物价指数同比2.1%低于预期，市场押注美联储9月降息概率升 至87%。非农数据若低于预期，可能进一步强化降息预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in global risk aversion has led to a significant increase in the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, with silver emerging as a new favorite among investors [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong and A-share markets have seen substantial gains in the gold and precious metals sector, with China Silver Group rising over 21% and several other companies hitting their daily price limits [2]. - As of the latest data, spot silver has reached over $36 per ounce, marking a 13-year high, while COMEX silver futures are reported at $36.19 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.08% [5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for silver is expected to reach record levels in 2024, contributing to a structural deficit in the silver market for the fourth consecutive year, driven by strong industrial demand, particularly in green energy sectors like solar power [8]. - The recent underperformance of U.S. economic data and the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have positively influenced the prices of silver and other industrially used precious metals [8]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Global geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Iran relations, have heightened the demand for safe-haven assets, further boosting precious metals [8]. - The recent escalation of trade tensions, particularly with the doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum by former President Trump, has raised concerns about potential tariffs on other key metals, impacting market sentiment [8]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that if U.S. non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations, it could strengthen market bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a significant rise in precious metal prices [9]. - Forecasts suggest that silver prices could reach $40 by the end of this year or early 2026, with ongoing central bank purchases and robust safe-haven demand driving this trend [9].

Group 1 - The rapid contraction of the gold-silver ratio may not be sustainable, with market volatility driven by tariff negotiations and bond market changes [1] - The gold-silver ratio has significantly adjusted, potentially influenced by the recent US-China leaders' call, but the ultimate trend may be more related to liquidity conditions [2] - Short-term drivers for gold and silver are unclear, with geopolitical risks and US tariff policies affecting market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The recent rise in precious metals is supported by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements in the overall metals market, with strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China [4] - Market expectations for at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have been bolstered by an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims [4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations remains, with potential for increased safe-haven demand for gold if substantial progress is not made [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a collective rise in gold and silver stocks, with companies like Fuda Alloy, Silver Industry, and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit [1] - Hong Kong gold stocks also experienced significant gains, with China Silver Group leading with a 20% increase, followed by Zijin Mining and others [1] - Various gold ETFs, including Huaan Gold Stock ETF and Ping An Gold Stock ETF, reported increases of over 1% [1] Group 2: Silver Price Outlook - London silver prices reached $36.066, the highest since February 2012, with a year-to-date increase of over 24% [2] - Bank of America predicts silver prices could reach $40 by the end of this year or early 2026, driven by both precious metal and industrial demand [2] - Industrial demand for silver is expected to hit a record in 2024, contributing to a structural deficit in the silver market for the fourth consecutive year [2] Group 3: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank noted that gold and silver are entering a breakthrough phase, supported by the macroeconomic environment [3] - Gold stocks tend to have higher elasticity compared to gold prices, often referred to as "gold price amplifiers," which can yield excess returns [3] - The geopolitical climate is increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with short-term risks from tariffs and uncertainties supporting gold prices [3] Group 4: Economic and Policy Influences - Huatai Securities highlighted the volatility in tariff policies under Trump, affecting market sentiment and making it difficult to establish a continuous trend [4] - The World Gold Council suggests re-evaluating the Basel Accord's treatment of gold as a high-quality liquid asset, indicating long-term investment opportunities in gold [4] Group 5: ETF Specifics - The Gold Stock ETF (Product Code: 159562) tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index, with a recent five-day increase of 3.19% and a P/E ratio of 20.50 [6] - The latest share count for the ETF is 390 million, with a decrease of 5 million shares and a net outflow of 4.118 million yuan [6]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/5 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公司 ...

高盛：特朗普加码钢铝关税引发白银大涨 金十数据6月5日讯，特朗普政府宣布将钢铝关税从25%提高至50%之后，白银迎来了强势上涨。因为这 一消息令市场预期美国政府可能会对其他关键金属（如白银）采取类似贸易保护措施，从而推升对白银 的避险和替代性需求。高盛期货交易员Robert Quinn称，美国提升钢铝关税的消息引发了白银期货市场 显著的多头建仓。白银期货总持仓量激增28亿美元，为过去一年中最大的两日增幅。尽管EFP（期货与 现货价差）波动较大，但整体趋于升水，表明市场对近期现货紧张的预期增强。同时，白银价格的上涨 推动了程序化趋势追踪资金入场做多。此外，期权市场也表现出看涨姿态：三个月隐含波动率飙升； 25-Delta认沽-认购偏度（Put-Call Skew）回落，表明投资者更愿意持有看涨期权；5 Delta与25 Delta认购 期权比例反弹，显示对极端上涨的押注增加。 ...