Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference has set the tone for 2026, emphasizing the continuation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expectations for further space in both areas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3][6] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is likely to remain the same as this year, but total fiscal spending may slightly increase due to economic growth, maintaining a certain level of fiscal intensity [6][7] - Monetary policy is expected to be more flexible and efficient, with options for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, as well as the continued use of structural monetary policy tools [6][8] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - The primary task for economic work in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, with consumption and investment as the dual engines, addressing current issues of weak internal momentum and insufficient interaction between consumption and investment [9][10] - The government aims to strengthen domestic circulation and improve the interaction between domestic and international cycles, preparing for long-term and complex international economic challenges [9][10] - Measures to boost investment include increasing central budget investment, optimizing the use of local government special bonds, and enhancing the role of new policy financial tools to stimulate private investment [11] Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate has shown resilience against external pressures, with expectations for a moderate appreciation in 2026, although caution is advised against unilateral bets on the RMB's performance due to mixed influencing factors [13][14] - The central economic work conference reiterated the goal of maintaining the RMB exchange rate's basic stability, balancing against excessive depreciation or appreciation [15][16] Group 4: Gold Price Trends - The outlook for gold prices is cautiously optimistic, supported by the logic of "gold re-monetization" and "global asset rebalancing," with a shift in demand from central banks to private investors [17][18] - The current gold price rally is driven by both central bank purchases and increasing private investment demand, indicating a potential for further price increases [18]

在全球宏观经济格局不断演变的背景下，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力正持续增强。根据最新的市场研 判，金价有望在2026年9月前攀升至每盎司5000美元的关口。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，若届时受到特定周 期性选举引发的政治波动或经济动荡影响，避险资金的涌入可能进一步将金价推升至5400美元的历史高 位。 在具体的价位分布上，相关观点认为市场呈现出明显的重心上移态势。2026年中期的目标价已调升至 4500美元。即便在市场面临极端波动的情境下，通过对财政前景恶化程度的推算，黄金的溢价能力依然 显著。尽管潜在的偏鹰立场或央行售金行为可能带来阶段性阻力，但整体看涨的大趋势并未改变。 对于近期的市场回调，Mhmarkets迈汇表示，技术面的抛售并未动摇基本面的核心逻辑。根据权威统计 数据，今年以来央行已累计购金634公吨，且第四季度的购买活动正呈现加速态势，预计2025年将达到 900至950公吨。此外，ETF的222公吨持续流入和实物金条、金币超过300公吨的旺盛需求，均印证了投 资者对黄金的强烈偏好。 综合来看，目前黄金在许多机构投资组合中的配置比例仍有提升空间。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，在当前金 价出现短期波动、现 ...

来源：长江有色金属网 宏观层面，美国总统特朗普本周宣布计划于2026年1月提名美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，此举或重塑美 国未来货币政策走向。白宫新闻发布会声明一出，金融市场和政策圈为之震荡。总统特别强调仍可能解 雇鲍威尔，这引发对美联储独立性的根本性质疑，加剧市场担忧情绪，美股震荡回落。不过，国内主要 股指午后翻红，离岸人民币兑美元升破6.99，日内涨0.12%，提振金属市场，限制铝价跌幅。 基本面方面，国内电解铝运行产能整体变动不大，海外供应有扰动。需求端，下游终端步入消费淡季， 需求愈发疲弱。国内现货贴水扩大，因价格上涨抑制需求；下游龙头企业开工率60.8%，环比下降 0.7%，铝板带箔持稳，其他下调；铝锭、铝棒累库4.4万吨，因新疆铝锭发运改善，且价格上涨也压制 需求。现货市场，铝价大幅波动，下游买家入场谨慎，持货商挺价但出库压力上升；下游节前补货提供 部分需求，但库存仍在累积，日内交投一般。 综合来看，看涨情绪略有降温；持仓量下降反映资金谨慎。同时节前消费乏力，及高铝价施压，短期铝 价存压。不过中长期仍有支撑，库存整体水平仍在低位。估值上，铜铝比值因铜价大跌有所修复。短期 铝价上破失败重回震荡，前多已提 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of December and looking forward to January, investors' judgments on the future bond market trend are relatively concentrated: they maintain a preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and adopt a defensive approach overall. The intensity and rhythm of fiscal policy and the supply pressure of government bonds have become the core concerns of investors [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of December, there are five mainstream expectations for the January bond market: investors' expectations for the upper and lower limits of long - term Treasury yields are neutral, showing a range - bound state; "Short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the mainstream expectation for the overall bond market trend; in bond market operations, the mainstream views are to hold cash and wait or keep positions basically stable; fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance are the most concerned core issues, and monetary policy and the capital market remain key concerns; investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. 1 - month Bond Market Outlook - **Survey Background**: A bond market questionnaire was released on December 26, 2025, and 123 valid questionnaires were received by 8:00 on December 29, covering various institutional and individual investors [9]. - **Long - term Treasury Yield Expectations** - **10 - year Treasury (250016)**: 50% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive) range, and 56% think the upper limit will fall in the 1.85% - 1.90% range. Current investors' expectations for the rise of the 10 - year Treasury interest rate have gradually increased compared with the November survey results [12][13]. - **30 - year Treasury (250006)**: 37% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive) range, and 44% think the upper limit will fall in the 2.25% - 2.30% range. Since December, the 30 - year Treasury yield has shown an overall oscillating trend, and investors expect it to oscillate downward in the next month [14]. - **Expectations for Monetary Policy** - **2026 Policy Adjustments**: 67% of investors think there will be one reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026, and 69% think there will be one interest rate cut [18]. - **Q1 2026 Policy**: 68% of investors think there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q1 2026, but opinions on whether to cut interest rates vary, showing an overall expectation of "biased towards easing, but the path is undetermined" [20]. - **Market Buying Power after New Year**: 45% of investors think the bond market's major logic will remain unchanged after the New Year, and the buying power will remain weak. The overall expectation of the bond market's capital situation after the New Year is "cautious overall, with structural differences" [23]. - **January Bond Market Trends**: Investors do not have a strong consensus on a single direction for the January bond market. The expectation shows a pattern of "cautiously optimistic, structure - dominated", and "short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the most mainstream market expectation [25]. - **Current Bond Market Operations**: In December, most investors were neutral in actual operations. Holding cash and waiting to add positions after a callback and keeping positions basically stable were still the mainstream views. The proportion of those who could start adding positions decreased slightly, and the proportion of those who reduced duration to control risks increased [27]. - **January Bond Market Pricing Logic**: Fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance have become the most concerned core issues, with the proportion rising from 14% in the November survey to 27%. The focus of bond market investors has shifted to "fiscal policy" [28]. - **Preferred Bond Types in January**: Investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased, and their preference for interbank certificates of deposit has also rebounded. The preference for ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds and secondary capital bonds has decreased, indicating that investors may pay more attention to liquidity protection and short - term certainty [32].

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a "short weak long strong" trend, with mixed performance in government bond futures and a majority of interbank bond yields declining, although short-term yields slightly rebounded in the afternoon [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan in the open market, with significant increases in funding rates observed [1][4] - Institutions suggest that the bond market is likely to remain in a slightly weak oscillating pattern, with steepening pressure on the yield curve, and recommend gradual allocation at high points [1][5] Group 2 - In the North American market, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down by 2.45 basis points to 3.450% and the 10-year yield down by 1.95 basis points to 4.108% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year government bonds also decreased, with French bonds down by 3.6 basis points to 3.523% and German bonds down by 3.2 basis points to 2.827% [3] - The market sentiment is fragile, with adjustments in the bond market driven by trading factors and supply-demand concerns, leading to expectations of a weak oscillating trend in the first quarter of the following year [5][6] Group 3 - The central bank's recent operations included a fixed-rate reverse repurchase agreement of 312.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total net injection of 253.2 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [4] - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly increased, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.247%, while the 14-day rate rose by 21.9 basis points to 1.869%, marking a new high since April 2025 [4] - Institutions predict that fiscal policy will be more proactive in 2026, with continued expansion in spending directed towards new infrastructure, technological innovation, and basic public services to stimulate consumption [5]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent national address marks a significant shift in his speaking style, moving from a spontaneous and passionate approach to a more serious and scripted delivery, reflecting the pressures his administration is currently facing [1][3]. Group 1: Speech Style and Context - On December 17, Trump's 18-minute address was broadcasted live by major TV networks, contrasting sharply with his usual informal style, as he read from a script with a serious demeanor [3]. - The change in style is attributed to the high stakes of the address, typically reserved for major policy announcements or national crises, amid significant governance challenges [4]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Recent polls indicate that only 33% of American adults support Trump's economic policies, marking the lowest approval rating since his second term began, with a notable 8% drop among his core supporters since April [4]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since October 2021, with 7.83 million unemployed, highlighting the economic difficulties faced by the administration [4]. Group 3: Speech Content and Controversies - Trump attributed the current economic struggles to the previous Biden administration, claiming he inherited a "mess" and is working to fix it, despite being in office for nearly a year [6]. - He attempted to reassure the public about economic recovery, claiming "inflation has stopped" and promising significant improvements by 2026, although these statements were met with skepticism and fact-checking [8]. - The introduction of the "warrior bonus" plan, which proposes $1,776 payments to 1.45 million military personnel funded by tariffs, has raised concerns about the legality of the tariffs being challenged in court [9]. Group 4: Policy Focus - The speech largely avoided foreign policy issues, focusing instead on domestic economic concerns, including a brief mention of ending eight wars since taking office [11]. - Trump's push for a new Federal Reserve chair to lower interest rates aligns with his desire for a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy [13]. - The administration's approach to the national debt leans towards increased spending and revenue generation through tariffs, contrasting with traditional views advocating for debt reduction [15].

Group 1 - The GBP/USD pair has shown a mild increase to around 1.3510 during the early European session, continuing its recent strong trend supported by both fundamental and technical factors, while also considering the impact of market liquidity changes ahead of the holidays [1] - The Bank of England has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% during the December monetary policy meeting, with Governor Andrew Bailey indicating a cautious approach to future rate decisions based on economic data [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with the December meeting minutes expected to provide short-term guidance, while overall trading volume is anticipated to remain light due to the upcoming New Year holidays [2] Group 2 - The daily chart indicates that GBP/USD is currently holding above the 100-day moving average, which is positioned around 1.3335, providing foundational support, while also trading above the 20-day moving average, confirming short-term trend support [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69.87, nearing the overbought territory, suggesting a need to monitor momentum changes after the recent upward movement [4] - The Bollinger Bands show that the upper resistance is at 1.3550, with prices currently running just below this level, indicating reduced market volatility but dominant buying pressure [4] Group 3 - The overall technical structure for GBP/USD leans bullish, with a key resistance level at 1.3550 that, if broken, could extend the upward trend, while the support area at 1.3410 needs to be monitored [5] - The decline in liquidity due to the holidays may amplify market volatility, and the FOMC meeting minutes are noteworthy for market participants [5] - As long as prices remain above the major moving averages, the technical outlook continues to support bullish sentiment [5]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $4369.47, with a latest price of $4367.89 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 0.84% [1] - The highest price reached was $4369.47 per ounce, while the lowest was $4322.53 per ounce, indicating a bullish short-term trend for gold [1] Group 2 - President Donald Trump announced plans to nominate a successor to current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in January 2026, which could reshape U.S. monetary policy for years [2] - Trump's mention of the possibility of dismissing Powell raises fundamental questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially as the U.S. economy faces inflation pressures and interest rate decisions [2] - The selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman is crucial as it directly influences interest rates, employment, and price stability, with the current term expected to last until May 2026 [2] Group 3 - The gold market experienced a significant drop of nearly $250, with a large bearish candle nearly erasing the previous week's gains, primarily due to profit-taking by bulls at the end of the month [3] - Despite the sharp decline, gold prices remain within an upward channel on the daily chart, indicating that the overall bullish trend has not been completely broken [3] - Key support for gold is around $4285, which aligns with the lower boundary of the daily channel and previous price levels, while resistance is concentrated in the $4396-$4426 range [3]

Group 1 - The market in 2026 is expected to continue the operational logic from 2024, with fiscal and monetary policies remaining the main driving forces, providing significant support to the fundamentals [1] - Monetary policy is anticipated to have more operational space due to potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle for the dollar [1] - Fiscal policy is expected to focus on investment, shifting from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure and hard technology sectors [1] Group 2 - Export performance is projected to exceed market expectations, supported by a relatively stable export environment compared to the first half of 2025, despite potential challenges in US-China trade negotiations [1] - The competitiveness of Chinese export products is highlighted, even amidst discussions of trade balance in Europe, indicating that exports will remain a crucial support for China's economic growth in 2026 [1] Group 3 - Since 2024, market sentiment has transitioned through three phases: extreme pessimism, expectation recovery, and reasonable valuation, with current optimism driven by policies encouraging stock buybacks and enhancing dividend requirements [2] - The market is expected to show a steady upward trend, gradually incorporating more positive expectations, transitioning from lagging to leading performance relative to fundamentals [2] - The company managing consumer-themed funds aims for a stable investment approach, focusing on high-quality stocks with valuation advantages and sustainable growth in various consumer sectors [2] Group 4 - In the gold jewelry industry, most retail enterprises are experiencing slow growth or even negative growth due to rising gold prices, while their valuations remain reasonable [3] - The gold mining sector is viewed as having strong long-term investment appeal compared to downstream retail enterprises [3] - In the optional consumption sector, companies in the downstream real estate chain, such as construction materials, have adjusted valuations to reasonable levels and maintain certain growth resilience, indicating good long-term investment value [3]

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月29日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 12月金银铜均出现加速上行，一方面受美元流动性改善驱动，另一 方面铜的全球库存结构性矛盾以及自身估值修复对行情起到了推波 助澜的作用。短期虽然受到假期不确定性增加，获利盘止盈离场的 影响，铜价格短期波动加剧，但中长期上行趋势未改。宏观层面， ...