Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman reiterated the commitment to combat inflation, emphasizing its significant impact on the economy and people's lives, and stated that measures will continue to ensure inflation returns to target levels [2] - The sources of inflation were identified as supply chain issues, energy prices, and temporary increases in demand for certain goods, prompting the Fed to implement various monetary and fiscal policy measures [2] Group 2 - The Chairman hinted at a potential slowdown in interest rate hikes, indicating that as inflationary pressures ease and the economy recovers, monetary policy adjustments will be made based on actual conditions [3] - Future decisions will take into account inflation data, employment market conditions, and the global economic environment [3] Group 3 - The economic outlook presented by the Chairman suggested that despite current challenges, the U.S. economy shows resilience and is expected to achieve a full recovery, contingent on continued measures to ensure inflation returns to target levels and maintain stable economic growth [4] - The global economic environment's influence on the U.S. economy was highlighted, with a commitment to closely monitor international developments [4] Group 4 - Overall, the testimony provided important reference information for the market, aiding in stabilizing market expectations and confidence, while emphasizing the need to monitor key factors such as inflation data, employment conditions, and the global economic landscape [5] - The decisions made by the Federal Reserve are expected to have significant implications for the global economy, prompting close attention from various stakeholders [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, focusing on Kevin Hassett as a leading contender and the implications of this selection on U.S. monetary policy amid a divided Federal Reserve [5][6][9]. Candidate Selection - President Trump has a candidate in mind for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Hassett being the most prominent contender among five potential candidates [6][7]. - The prediction markets show a strong consensus on Hassett's chances, with probabilities of 79% on Kalshi, 75% on PredictIt, and 63% on Polymarket for his appointment [7]. Federal Reserve's Internal Division - The Federal Reserve is currently experiencing internal divisions, with some officials advocating for further rate cuts to mitigate labor market risks, while others are concerned about inflation threats [9]. - The futures market indicates an 87.6% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming decision on December 10 [10]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - The new Fed Chair will face a complex monetary policy environment, with discussions around simplifying the Fed's mission and the role of regional Fed presidents [11]. - Mohamed El-Erian supports the idea of a more restrained Fed, emphasizing the need for reform to better serve the economy [12]. Shadow Chair Situation - The article highlights the potential for a "shadow chair" scenario, where the new appointee may overshadow the current Chair, Jerome Powell, during the transition [14]. - Concerns are raised about the implications of Hassett's potential appointment, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy stance, impacting the dollar negatively [15].

智通财经APP获悉，欧元区11月通胀率小幅上涨，这支持了欧洲央行的观点，即目前几乎没有理由进一 步降低借贷成本。周二公布的数据显示，欧元区11月CPI同比上涨2.2%，高于经济学家预测中值2.1%和 前值2.1%;剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比涨幅持平于2.4%，与经济学家预测中值一致; 备受关注的服务业通胀则略有上升。 投资者和经济学家对此表示认同。他们预计，欧洲央行本月将再次将存款机制利率维持在2%不变。此 前，该行已连续八次以25个基点的幅度降息，将存款机制利率从4%的峰值一路下调。 在经历疫情后的飙升后，欧元区通胀率已连续九个月接近欧洲央行设定的2%目标水平。不过，受各国 经济状况差异及基数效应影响，欧元区各成员国之间的通胀情况差异较大——德国通胀加速，法国通胀 保持稳定，西班牙和意大利的通胀则有所缓解。 欧洲央行行长拉加德上周强调了该行对当前货币政策立场的满意态度。拉加德表示："考虑到我们已经 成功控制住的通胀周期，我们处于有利位置"。她还补充称，利率"设定得当"。 通胀前景温和加之经济复苏势头增强，促使大多数分析师预测欧洲央行基准利率将在2026年之前保持不 变。与此同时，面对贸易和 ...

Fiscal Policy Insights - In 2025, the fiscal financing scale reached a historical high, with net government financing amounting to CNY 14.36 trillion, accounting for an estimated 10.2% of GDP[1] - The general public budget deficit reached CNY 56,600 billion, an increase of CNY 16,000 billion from 2024, marking a deficit ratio of 4% for the first time[12] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high expenditure intensity compared to previous years[15] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank maintained a "moderately loose" monetary policy in 2025, with the R007 average rate around 1.50%, reflecting a low interest rate environment[25] - The frequency and magnitude of interest rate cuts in 2025 were more cautious than in 2024, with only one reduction of 10 basis points for the 7-day reverse repurchase rate[28] - Social financing growth showed a "front high and back stable" trend, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0% in July 2025, before gradually declining to 8.5% by October[30] Policy Coordination - The central bank's adjustment of government bond trading operations in 2025 demonstrated a flexible response to market changes, enhancing the overall effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies[2] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks were aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios, with CNY 5,000 billion allocated for this purpose in 2025[43] - The government emphasized the need for fiscal policy to support economic growth and structural transformation, with a projected deficit rate of around 4% for 2026[3]

来源：滚动播报 经合组织最新预测显示，主要经济体的降息周期将在2026年底前结束。该组织指出，尽管经济增长将趋 于放缓，但多数主要央行的政策宽松空间已十分有限。经合组织预计，美联储在2026年底前仅会再降息 两次，随后将在整个2027年将联邦基金利率维持在3.25%至3.5%区间——此举旨在平衡关税引发的通胀 压力与劳动力市场疲软的影响。此外，该组织预计欧元区和加拿大不会进一步降息，而通胀率最终稳定 在2%左右的日本将持续收紧货币政策。对于英国，经合组织表示英国央行的降息"将在2026年上半年停 止"，澳洲联储则将在同年下半年达到类似节点。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔暗示可能推迟降息，通胀压力持续引发市场关注 针对这一情况，经济学家们纷纷发表观点。一些专家认为，美联储需要在控制通胀和刺激经济增长之间 取得平衡。推迟降息可能是为了观察通胀趋势和经济增长情况，以便作出更明智的决策。他们认为，美 联储将继续关注经济数据的变化，并采取适当的措施来确保经济的稳定。 此次鲍威尔的表态对金融市场产生了重要影响。投资者们开始重新评估市场利率的预期，并密切关注通 胀数据的变化。同时，全球其他央行也在关注美联储的决策，以了解全球货币政策的走向。 总之，由于通胀压力的持续存在，美联储可能推迟降息决策。市场需密切关注通胀数据和经济状况的变 化，以了解未来利率走势。美联储将继续致力于确保经济的稳定并促进可持续增长。 【注：本文内容由人工智能辅助生成，仅供学习和参考之用。文中观点和数据仍需经本人甄别与核实， 不代表最终立场。】 当地时间新闻报道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一次公开演讲中暗示，由于通胀压力持续存在，美联 储可能会推迟降息。这一表态引发了全球金融市场的广泛关注。 近期，通胀问题已成为美国经济面临的一大挑战。随着全球供应链的混乱和原材料价格的上涨，美国通 胀压力持续加剧。在 ...

Group 1: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel expressed satisfaction with the current monetary policy settings, indicating that interest rates are at an appropriate level [1][7] - Nagel mentioned that the monetary policy of the euro area is currently in a neutral state and new forecasts will include preliminary projections for 2028 [1][7] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB is in a favorable position with borrowing costs at appropriate levels, with a forecasted inflation rate of 2.1% for November in the eurozone [1][7] Group 2: Bank of England (BoE) Perspectives - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene stated that the labor market needs to weaken further before she can support another rate cut [2][8] - Greene noted signs of stabilization in employment and job vacancy data, indicating her continued opposition to further easing of monetary policy [2][8] - She emphasized that a significant downturn in consumer spending could alter her view on borrowing costs [2][8] Group 3: Currency Market Movements - The US Dollar Index experienced slight declines, trading around 99.50, primarily due to rising expectations for a Fed rate cut in December and weak economic data from the US [4][9] - The Euro appreciated slightly, trading around 1.1610, supported by the weakening dollar and optimistic comments from ECB officials, although overall economic data from the eurozone limited its upward movement [5][10] - The British Pound showed minor declines, trading around 1.3210, affected by profit-taking and diminishing optimism from the UK budget, while Fed rate cut expectations and hawkish comments from BoE officials limited its downside [6][11]

宏 观 研 究 国内政策展望 2025 年 12 月 02 日 2026 年：财政货币政策展望 —— 2026 年展望报告系列之二 政策回顾：财政货币政策协同支撑 2025 年经济增长 财政政策呈现力度加大、节奏前置、灵活性提升的突出特征，充分体现对经济的托底意图。2025 年财政融资规模创历史新高，政府债净融资达 14.36 万亿元，占 GDP 比例预计为 10.2%。2025 年前三季度广义财政支出同比增长 7.9%，支出力度为近年高位。支出节奏明显前置，配合四 季度灵活出台的增量政策，凸显财政对宏观经济支持的积极姿态。 货币政策重归"适度宽松"基调，注重预期引导与传导疏通，操作更趋精准审慎。2025 年央 行保持流动性合理充裕，资金利率整体处于较低水平；降息次数和幅度较 2024 年更为谨慎， 政策节奏前置，社融增速呈现"前高后稳"。同时，2025 年央行加强市场沟通，支持资本市 场稳定，并通过多种手段缓解银行息差压力，提升政策传导效率。 财政与货币协同持续深化，国债买卖操作与商业银行注资体现宏观治理体系不断完善。2025 年央行分阶段调整国债买卖操作，展现出灵活应对市场变化的调控艺术。财政则通过注资商 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a slight decline in interest rates, influenced by weak PMI data and a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion from the central bank, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [1] - Key upcoming events in December, including the Politburo and economic work meetings, are expected to set the tone for economic policies in 2026, with a high probability of maintaining a growth target of around 5% [1] - The central bank's actions to counter year-end liquidity fluctuations will be crucial, as historical trends suggest large-scale liquidity injections in December or early January to address year-end funding needs [2] Group 2 - Regulatory policies regarding fund management are under scrutiny, with potential adjustments in fee structures that could impact the public fund industry and lead to preventive redemptions by clients [3] - Despite uncertainties in the bond market, assets with safe-haven characteristics are likely to benefit in a context of global economic downturn and ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The bond market is currently facing upward pressure on interest rates, with short-term rates remaining stable and long-term rates showing slight increases, indicating a search for support at the upper end of the trading range [5]

欧洲央行10月货币政策会议纪要显示（以下简称"会议纪要"），由于不确定性依然较高，因此，欧洲央 行在10月货币政策会议上并不急于降息，甚至有部分官员认为没有必要再进一步降息。欧洲央行表示， 继续等待更多信息具有很高的选择价值，当前的政策利率水平应被视为足以应对冲击。 具体而言，有人认为，降息周期已经结束，除非风险显现，否则目前的有利前景可能会维持下去，采取 稳重的方法可以增加保持良好位置的机会。与此同时，也有人表示，考虑到下行风险因素的可能性强度 增加，或者如果通胀目标的预期持续低于预期，重要的是对可能需要进一步降息保持完全开放的心态。 由此可见，通胀依然是欧洲央行在调整货币政策时要考虑的关键因素。从目前的情况看，欧元区的通胀 存在着双向风险，对于通胀评估的不确定性也进一步增强。会议纪要指出，由于全球贸易政策环境仍然 动荡，通货膨胀的前景仍然比以往更加不确定。欧元走强可能会使通胀进一步降低。金融市场波动加剧 和风险厌恶情绪上升可能会抑制国内需求，从而压低通胀。 12月，全球多家央行都将陆续迎来今年最后一次货币政策会议。在连续多次暂停降息后，欧洲央行在货 币政策调整路径上继续释放出保持耐心的信号，并且指出通胀存 ...