Core Viewpoint - A U.S. court has ruled that Trump's tariff policy is invalid, raising questions about presidential authority in trade matters and causing significant market reactions [3][9][10]. Group 1: Background and Context - The tariff policy was announced by Trump on April 2, aimed at addressing perceived unfairness in the global trade system and reducing the trade deficit [5][6]. - The policy imposed varying tariffs on multiple countries, intending to pressure them into renegotiating trade agreements [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariffs have negatively affected global economic stability, leading to rising costs for U.S. companies, particularly those reliant on exports, and increasing consumer prices [6][8]. - Economists and industry associations have warned that high tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and weaken U.S. competitiveness in international markets [8]. Group 3: Legal and Political Reactions - The court's ruling was based on the U.S. Constitution, which assigns tariff authority to Congress, not the president, and deemed Trump's claims of a national emergency unfounded [9][10]. - Despite the ruling, Trump plans to appeal, indicating a potential prolonged legal battle over the tariff policy [10][12]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the court's decision, global markets reacted strongly, with U.S. stock futures showing significant gains, reflecting investor optimism about the potential repeal of the tariffs [11][13]. - A successful repeal could restore confidence in global markets, encouraging multinational companies to increase foreign investments and enhancing capital flow [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, which has led to significant movements in the global bond market and a surge in safe-haven assets like gold, indicating a reshaping of financial market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - Following Trump's tariff threat on May 23, the German bond market reacted sharply, with short-term rates rising due to inflation concerns while long-term rates fell, signaling increased recession risks [4][5]. - The yield curve exhibited a "bear flattening" pattern, with the two-year German bond yield rising by 1.8 basis points to 1.782%, while the 30-year yield dropped by 2.3 basis points to 3.065% [4][3]. Group 2: Safe-Haven Assets - Gold prices surged by 2.1% to $3362.70 per ounce, reaching a six-week high, while the US dollar index fell by 0.83%, reflecting a loss of confidence in US policies [6][7]. - The movements in the bond market and precious metals serve as indicators of capital flows amid trade conflicts [7]. Group 3: EU Countermeasures - The EU's countermeasures include a targeted list of $21 billion in tariffs, focusing on agricultural products that impact key Republican states, while avoiding escalation by removing whiskey tariffs [9]. - Potential retaliatory measures from the EU could disrupt corporate bond issuance and increase credit spread volatility [11]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The article highlights that if the tariff conflict persists until 2028, Germany could face cumulative losses of €250 billion, with the bond market already pricing in these risks [18]. - The risk premium on German bonds has increased by 3-5 basis points, and if negotiations break down before July 9, this premium could potentially double [18].

特朗普出人意料宣布将美国钢铁和铝关税翻倍，此举可能使美国与其他贸易伙伴的双边贸易谈判陷入混乱，欧盟对此表示"强烈"遗憾。 随着贸易战再次出现升级的迹象，现货黄金周一跳空高开，站上3300美元关口。 欧盟委员会上周六表示，特朗普在关税问题上的最新举措"破坏了正在进行的谈判努力"，并就"反制措施"发出警告。 这也引发了对英国与美国就钢铁和铝达成的零关税协议的质疑——该协议虽已达成，但尚未签署。 英国钢铁制造商表示，关税翻倍是该行业"又一次沉重打击"，而英国政府发言人表示，"我们正在与美国接触，了解最新关税公告的影响，并为行业提供明 确信息"。 上周五，特朗普宣布钢铁和铝进口关税税率将翻倍至50%，从周三开始生效。他在宾夕法尼亚州西米夫林的一家美国钢铁公司发表讲话时说："如果达到 50%，他们就再也无法跨越围栏（指新关税税率）了。" 特朗普还表示，美国钢铁公司（US Steel）和日本新日铁（Nippon Steel）将通过合作向该地区的钢铁生产投资140亿美元（100亿英镑），不过他后来告诉记 者，他尚未看到或批准最终协议。 这一宣布是特朗普自1月重新执政以来在关税问题上"过山车式"政策的最新转折。"不会有任何裁 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that Trump's trade war with China is ultimately self-defeating, as it undermines U.S. credibility and worsens domestic economic issues [1][3][28] - Trump's 90-day extension for negotiations is perceived as a way to allow U.S. companies to stockpile Chinese goods, rather than a genuine effort to resolve trade disputes [3][5] - The warning to 18 countries about potential tariffs reflects a hardline stance, but many nations are skeptical and may delay negotiations, expecting Trump to backtrack [5][7] Group 2 - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's indicates a significant loss of trust in the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt, which stands at $36 trillion [7][9] - The U.S. faces a fiscal crisis, with interest payments on debt consuming 30% of federal revenue, and projections suggest debt could reach 134% of GDP by 2035 [9][11] - The tax system in the U.S. disproportionately benefits the wealthy, allowing them to avoid significant taxation through various loopholes, exacerbating income inequality [11][13] Group 3 - The outsourcing of manufacturing jobs to countries like China has contributed to the decline of the U.S. industrial base, leading to economic hardship in regions once reliant on these industries [17][19] - The political landscape in the U.S. is heavily influenced by wealthy donors, which raises concerns about the integrity of policy-making and the prioritization of corporate interests over public welfare [22][24] - The ongoing issues in the U.S. economy, such as high debt levels and tax avoidance by the wealthy, are not caused by external factors like China, but rather by internal systemic problems [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has suspended licenses allowing U.S. companies to sell products and technologies to COMAC, effectively restricting exports of critical components like the LEAP-1C engine used in China's C919 aircraft, which may reignite trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on C919 and Aviation Industry - The suspension of exports is seen as a retaliatory measure against China's restrictions on rare earth exports, which were in response to U.S. semiconductor limitations [1][3]. - The C919 aircraft is currently transitioning from low-speed production to full-scale production, and while the export ban may slow down progress, existing inventory can sustain production for a while [7][8]. - The ban affects various components and systems of the C919, including flight control, hydraulic, and avionics systems, but China has made significant advancements in these areas and can develop alternatives [8][10]. Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Responses - The U.S. government's approach to trade and technology restrictions has been consistent, using sudden bans and tariffs as leverage while also hinting at negotiation opportunities [4][5]. - Previous sanctions, such as those against Huawei, did not cripple the targeted companies, suggesting that the impact of the current ban on C919 may be manageable [5][8]. - The C919 project has already initiated plans for a fully domestic configuration, which may accelerate in response to the current sanctions, reflecting a proactive strategy in the face of external pressures [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment and Future Outlook - The aviation industry in China is characterized by resilience and a commitment to developing indigenous capabilities, with significant investments in testing facilities and advanced technologies [10][12]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from China in the commercial aircraft sector is acknowledged, indicating a complex interdependence in the global aviation market [14][15]. - There is optimism regarding the long-term prospects of the C919 project, despite the immediate challenges posed by the U.S. export ban, as the industry adapts and evolves [15].

Core Viewpoint - Boeing's CEO Kelly Ortberg stated that developing a new aircraft to replace the best-selling 737 Max is not a priority at the moment, as the market is not ready for a new model and the company's financial situation does not support such an investment [1] Group 1 - The company is currently collaborating with the Trump administration to mitigate the impacts of the trade war [1] - The uncertainty in trade relations necessitates Boeing to remain flexible and maintain communication with the U.S. government [1] - Boeing will pay less than $500 million annually for imported products required for manufacturing its products [1]

特朗普这么着急，恰恰说明稀土问题真的戳到美国的痛处了。之前美国媒体就说过，美军 6 代机项目可能因为稀土问题 泡汤，现在看来，这话还真有可能成真。 特朗普现在这一系列操作，也让我们更加确定，中国在稀土问题上留一手，是非常明智的。而且，在这段时间里，中国 在全球范围内已经完成了 3 大顶级布局，特朗普可能都还没反应过来呢。 中美互降 115% 关税这事，才过去两周，特朗普就坐不住了。华盛顿时间 5 月 30 日，特朗普在他的个人社交媒体上对 中国火力全开。他主要表达了两点，一是说两周前美国和中国达成的互降关税协议，那是他出于好心，想帮中国，可中 国却违反了协议；二是宣称他不会再在中国面前当什么好人了。 就在同一天，特朗普还宣布，要再次对进口钢铁加征关税，直接从现在的 25% 加到 50%。明眼人都看得出来，这就是 冲着中国等钢铁大国来的。从这些事来看，这场波及全球的贸易战，不但没有要结束的迹象，反而再次升级了。 现在大家都在猜测，特朗普说中国违反协议，到底指的是什么呢？《纽约时报》等好多媒体都觉得，这应该和中国对关 键稀土矿产的管控有关。最近这段时间，中国对稀土出口把控得还是很严格。但问题在于，中美在日内瓦达成 ...

882 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Title] 关税政策反复横跳，618 抢先购服装行业增长 强劲 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 30 日 ► 主要观点： [Table_Summary] 5 月 16 日晚 8 点，天猫淘宝 618 开卖，截止 5 月 26 日 天猫快消、服饰、运动户外、宠物、家享生活、汽车、企业 服务等多个行业 618 抢先购全周期成交榜发布。官方披露的 战报显示，抢先购期间天猫服饰行业增长强劲，优衣库、 UR、蕉下等多个品牌成交破亿，近 345 个品牌成交破千万， 近 3090 个品牌成交破百万，此外，约有 1088 个品牌成交同 比超过500%：1）天猫服饰TOP3分别为优衣库、UR、蕉下； 2）女装销售 TOP3 分别为优衣库、UR、ZARA；3）男装销售 TOP3 分别为优衣库、海澜之家、HAZZYS；4）男女鞋销售 TOP3 分别为 crocs、百丽、staccato；5)内衣销售 TOP3 分 别为 ubras、维秘、蕉内；6）运动户外销售 TOP3 分别为 FILA、NIKE、Lululemon；7)箱包服配销售 TOP3 分别为 coac ...

贸易战，有升级风险！ 据最新消息，欧盟委员会发言人称，欧盟已准备好对美国提高关税采取反制措施。稍早之前，美国总统特朗普 表示，6月4日起，将把钢铁和铝的进口关税从25%提高至50%。欧盟委员会发言人对美国的上述举动表示强烈 遗憾，并称提高关税也破坏了正在进行的达成谈判解决方案的努力。 关税的不确定性，令风险资产承压，过去24小时内，加密货币集体下挫，比特币一度跌超2.5%，以太坊跌近 5%，XRP跌5.5%，Solana跌超7%，狗狗市跌近10%。coinglass数据显示，24小时内，加密货币市场全网合约爆 仓超28万人，爆仓金额超过7亿美元，近九成为多单爆仓。 欧盟准备采取反制措施 北京时间5月31日晚间消息，欧盟委员会发言人表示，欧盟准备采取反制措施，包括美国近期加征关税作出回 应。 据路透社报道，欧盟委员会发言人称，"我们对美国宣布提高钢铁进口关税表示强烈遗憾，这一决定给全球经 济增加了更多的不确定性，增加了消费者和企业的成本。提高关税也破坏了正在进行的达成谈判解决方案的努 力。"欧盟委员会目前正在就扩大反制措施进行最后磋商。 上述发言人说："欧盟准备采取反制措施，包括应对美国最近的关税上调。"欧盟委 ...

密歇根大学的消费者调查结果也是如此，2024年底的时候该项数值还是73.3，处在较高位置——这是特朗普上任之前的那个月，到今年4月份却已经下跌至 47.3，成为1980年以来的最低值。 刚刚，美国商务部上调了2025年第一季度的经济成绩单，将GDP的环比增速由之前公布的"下降0.07%"，上调至"下降0.06%"。该季度的环比年化增速也由此 被上调至"缩减0.2%"，而之前是下降0.3%。 进口大增带来的库存投资，成为最大的贡献因素 从环比角度来看，美国一季度的私人消费贡献了0.80个百分点，其中的"商品消费贡献0.02个百分点，服务消费贡献0.79个百分点"。数个季度以来，美国的 私人消费都是拉动经济上涨的最大贡献因素。 但特朗普第二次担任美国总统后却出现了意外——汽车等耐用消费品的需求减弱，医疗保健与保险等服务支出的增幅也出现了放缓。好笑吧，特朗普特别盼 望高额关税可以重振美国的汽车制造业。 但今年第一季度的数据却告诉他"老百姓不买账"，闭关锁国让很多美国人对经济发展前景的信心感到不足，而推迟购买大件商品。汽车作为美国重要的消费 耐用品，它的销售下滑对整体消费产生了较大的抑制作用。 与私人消费不振相比，美 ...