格隆汇1月9日丨美国股市周五小幅走高，12月非农就业报告并未改变美联储维持利率不变的预期。与此 同时，交易员正密切关注最高法院可能就特朗普加征关税是否合法作出的裁决。道富银行宏观多资产策 略师Cayla Seder,表示："今天的劳动力数据表明劳动力市场更多处于平衡状态，而非疲软。这一数值足 够强劲，显示出经济状况尚可，但又没有强到需要市场大幅改变其货币政策预期的程度，这对股市构成 了利好。"关于关税裁决方面，美国最高法院即将就特朗普总统4月份推出的全面关税政策的合法性作出 裁决，这成为美国股票和债券面临的下一个重大考验之一，该政策曾一度令市场感到震动。若裁决判定 关税违宪，由于利润率有望改善且消费者负担得以减轻，股市可能会受到提振。与此同时，国债可能会 承压，因为这种潜在的刺激政策会使美联储的降息路径变得复杂，并有加剧政府预算赤字的风险。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall inflation level in China remains moderate, with the 12 - month CPI and core CPI both rising 0.2% month - on - month, and the PPI rising 0.2% month - on - month. The 2026 People's Bank of China Work Conference emphasizes continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The main contract of Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottoming out and rebounding this week, and the short - term Treasury bond futures may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [27][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contract of Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottoming out and rebounding. From Monday to Wednesday, it declined, rose on Thursday, and moved sideways on Friday. For the whole week, the 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.46%, the 10 - year Treasury bond fell 0.06%, the 5 - year Treasury bond fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.11% [5]. - As of January 9th, compared with December 31st, the maturity yield curve of Treasury bond cash bonds shifted upward in parallel. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 8 basis points from 1.36% to 1.44%, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 1.63% to 1.66%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 1.85% to 1.88%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 2.27% to 2.30% [8]. 3.2 CPI Data - In December, the national consumer price (CPI) rose 0.8% year - on - year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. For the whole year of 2025, the national consumer price was flat compared with the previous year. Food prices were an important factor driving the larger year - on - year increase in CPI in December, rising 1.1% year - on - year, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month [11]. - In December, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, compared with a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Food prices rose 0.3% month - on - month for five consecutive months, non - food prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.3% month - on - month, and service prices remained flat month - on - month. The core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, compared with a 0.1% decline in the previous month [13]. - According to the eight - category classification, in December, food and tobacco prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise about 0.05 percentage points. Housing prices fell 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices remained flat, medical care prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, clothing prices remained flat, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.4% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 2.8% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 PPI Data - In December, the national industrial producer price (PPI) fell 1.9% year - on - year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decline and a previous value of a 2.2% decline. For the whole year of 2025, the industrial producer price fell 2.6%. Production materials prices fell 2.1% year - on - year, and living materials prices fell 1.3% year - on - year [18]. - In December, the PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months, with production materials prices rising 0.3% month - on - month and living materials prices remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, mining industry prices rose 0.8% month - on - month for five consecutive months since August, raw material industry prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, and processing industry prices rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months [21]. 3.4 Capital Interest Rate - After the New Year, the capital interest rate remained low this week. The weighted average of DR001 from Monday to Friday was 1.267%, the weighted average of DR007 was 1.455%, and the average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.632%. The central bank conducted 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with the same amount of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a full offset [24]. 3.5 Market Logic - In December, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7%, and the new order index was 50.8%, indicating that both manufacturing production and demand entered the expansion range. The service business activity index was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line [27]. - The rise in gold, silver, and non - ferrous metal prices in December contributed to the increase in inflation indicators [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the U.S. labor market is experiencing a slowdown in hiring and an increase in layoffs, the most severe phase of economic slowdown may have passed, pending confirmation from the upcoming December employment report [1][2] - A senior economist from Bank of America noted that although the labor market has not fully recovered, data suggests that the worst phase may be over, but the impact of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has significantly affected the employment data for October and November [1] - Another economist focused on financial markets believes that the December employment report will provide a clearer understanding of the economic situation and is expected to reflect actual conditions better than November's data, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data collection processes return to normal [1] Group 2 - Analysis indicates that the U.S. labor market is undergoing a mild cooling process amid sustained high interest rates and rising corporate cost pressures [2] - If the December data shows stable unemployment, slowing wage growth, but no significant decline in employment numbers, it could support the "soft landing" narrative and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path in the first half of 2026 [2] - The December employment report is widely viewed as a key indicator for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, and its release may reshape investor expectations regarding growth, inflation, and interest rates [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures oscillated with a slight decline. The inflation data in December showed that CPI rose moderately and PPI's decline narrowed, indicating positive repair of price indices under the continuous promotion of consumption - boosting and anti - involution policies. Considering the strong resilience of the December manufacturing PMI data, the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts continued to decline, putting pressure on Treasury bond futures prices. However, as the prices of Treasury bond cash bonds fell, the implied interest rate cut expectations in the Treasury bond yields faded, and the anchoring effect of policy interest rates emerged, limiting the downside space of Treasury bond futures. In the medium - to - long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still requires a relatively loose monetary and credit environment on the policy side, so there is still support for Treasury bond futures. Overall, it is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On January 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered manner, with an operating rate of 1.4%. Since there were no 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities on this day, a net investment of 34 billion yuan was achieved. - On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding to a new high since March 2023; month - on - month, it turned from a decline to an increase, rising 0.2%. The national industrial producer price decreased 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month; month - on - month, it rose 0.2%, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month [5] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the trends of TL2603, T2603, TF2603, TS2603, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations, with data sources from iFinD and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [6][8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) currently sees no reason to adjust monetary policy as inflation in the Eurozone remains close to the 2% target, according to ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor, Pereira [1][6][7] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Pereira emphasized that the responsibility has shifted to national governments and the EU to implement structural reforms to address the sluggish growth in the Eurozone [1][6] - He highlighted the importance of deepening the single market and noted that the EU still lacks a truly unified market [1][6] - The ECB has completed its role in supporting the economy when necessary, and now it is up to governments and the European Commission to drive reforms [1][6] Group 2: Employment Data - Eurozone unemployment rate decreased from 6.4% in October to 6.3% in November, marking the first decline since April of the previous year [1][7] - This drop in unemployment is significant as it is the first time the rate has been at this level since hitting a historical low of 6.2% in November 2024 [1][7] - The unexpected decline in unemployment indicates a tight labor market despite sluggish economic activity, reinforcing confidence in the stability of the labor market in the region [1][7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain liquidity through various policy tools, including government bond transactions and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), to ensure a continued loose monetary environment in January [1][5]. Group 1: Liquidity Factors - Multiple factors, including fiscal deposits and credit issuance, are anticipated to impact liquidity in January, with a net increase in fiscal deposits estimated at approximately 620 billion yuan, potentially widening the liquidity gap [3][5]. - The total liquidity gap for January 2026 is projected to be around 1.9 trillion yuan, influenced by fiscal deposits, cash withdrawals, and bank reserve requirements [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Tools Utilization - The PBOC is expected to actively utilize policy tools such as reverse repos and MLF to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, reflecting a continuation of the "moderately loose" monetary policy stance [5][7]. - The central bank's approach may include a combination of reverse repos, MLF, and government bond transactions, with a cautious stance on tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [7][6]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate that the PBOC will increase the use of policy tools to stabilize the funding environment, with anticipated lower fluctuations in funding rates compared to seasonal patterns [5][6]. - The average overnight funding rate is expected to remain below the policy rate, with a low probability of the one-day bond repurchase rate returning to 1.35%-1.4% throughout January [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in prices is significantly influenced by short - term and single - commodity factors, and its impact on financing demand is limited due to the short - term and seasonal nature of food price increases and the limited ability of single - commodity price hikes to drive up financing demand [4][25][26] - Monetary policy mainly for demand adjustment may not effectively respond to the current price increases, and price increases have a limited impact on interest rates [4][26] - The bond market is expected to recover. It may remain volatile in January due to supply shocks and have a smoother recovery after late January [5][26] 3. Summary by Related Content CPI Analysis - In December, CPI year - on - year increase expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, reaching the highest level since March 2023, and the month - on - month increase was seasonally higher than the average of the past three years [1][8] - The increase in CPI was mainly driven by the expansion of food price increases, especially fresh vegetables and fruits. However, vegetable prices started to decline in late December [1][4][9] - Core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, remaining flat compared to the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2% turning from decline to rise. Gold prices still had a significant impact on CPI [2] - The other supplies and services sector in CPI increased by 17.4% year - on - year in December, with its growth rate rising by 3.2 percentage points compared to November, likely supported by the increase in gold prices [2][14] PPI Analysis - In December, PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points, and increased by 0.2% month - on - month. The non - ferrous and coal industries still had a large pulling effect [3][22] - Input factors affected domestic non - ferrous metal - related industries, and prices in the coal industry increased for five consecutive months. Seasonal demand also drove up prices in the gas and power industries [3][22] - The prices of industries related to the construction of a unified national market saw their year - on - year declines continuously narrowing, and the prices of industries related to new - quality productivity increased year - on - year [3][22] - In December, the PPI of consumer goods decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] Impact on the Bond Market - The bond market is expected to recover. The mild implementation of the public fund fee - rate new regulations and the easing of banks' institutional indicator pressure may boost the allocation power and drive the bond market to warm up [5][26] - In January, supply shocks such as the large - scale supply of government bonds and the initial - stage credit shock may cause the bond market to remain volatile, but after late January, the recovery may be smoother [5][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the US Congress Budget Office expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly this year, and the central bank in China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The industry situation indicates that after the holiday, more steel mills' blast furnaces resumed production, iron - water output increased, and the spot supply of iron ore was relatively stable. Although the port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, the in - plant inventory remained at a low level, and the firm spot price still supported the futures price. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions in the I2605 contract after a correction, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Summary Price - As of the close on January 9, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 814.5 (+25) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+20) yuan/dry ton [5]. Shipment - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.137 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.634 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.427 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million tons [5]. Arrival - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.247 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 969,000 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 27.564 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.55 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.129 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.823 million tons [5]. Demand - The daily average iron - water output was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons [5]. Inventory - As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 13.2848 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.8449 million tons [5]. Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.99 percentage points [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the I2605 contract fluctuated strongly. The price of the I2605 contract was stronger than that of the I2609 contract. On the 9th, the price difference was 21.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [12]. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 9, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,600, a week - on - week increase of 300. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 20,258, an increase of 1,592 compared with the previous week [19]. Spot Price - On January 9, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 869 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 9th, the basis was 55 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation Arrival Volume - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume at 47 ports, 45 ports, and six northern ports in China increased [28]. Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3696 million tons, a decrease of 325,000 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore increased by 1.1419 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore increased by 916,500 tons, and the inventory of traded ore increased by 3.3529 million tons [32]. Steel Mill Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills in China was 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.73 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days [32]. Inventory Availability Days - As of January 8, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On January 8, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,718, a week - on - week decrease of 159 [36]. Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization - In November 2025, China's import of iron ore and its concentrates was 110.54 million tons, a decrease of 769,000 tons compared with October, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.139202 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of 266 sample mines was 58.76%, a decrease of 1.41% compared with the previous period; the daily average output of fine powder was 371,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,000 tons; the inventory was 461,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 133,000 tons [39]. Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output - In November 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 83.028 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to November, the cumulative output was 923.622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In November, the output of iron ore concentrates from 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative output was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [42]. 4. Downstream Situation Crude Steel Output - In November 2025, China's crude steel output was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [45]. Steel Exports - In November 2025, China's steel exports were 9.98 million tons, an increase of 198,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%; a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, turning from a decline to an increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative steel exports were 107.717 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month [45]. Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Iron - Water Output - On January 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.80 percentage points. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons [48]. 5. Options Market - The high iron ore port inventory and the correction of finished products will limit the rebound space of ore prices, but the overall spot price remains firm, which will still support the futures price in the medium and long term. It is recommended to consider buying call options on the I2605 contract after adjustment [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of strong expectations but weak reality, with the market likely to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [9]. - Given the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is advisable to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of January 9, the closing price of the main rebar contract was 3144 yuan/ton (+22), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3340 yuan/ton (+20) [7]. - Rebar production increased to 191.04 million tons (+2.82), a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons [7]. - The apparent demand further declined, with this period's apparent demand at 174.96 million tons (-25.48), a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons [7]. - Both factory and social inventories increased. The total rebar inventory was 438.11 million tons (+16.08), a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the same period last year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the US Congressional Budget Office expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly this year. Domestically, the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year [9]. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore port inventories continued to increase, and coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded, but may enter range - bound trading [9]. - **Technical - aspect**: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell, with technical support at the 3100 level [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell this week and was weaker than the RB2610 contract. On the 9th, the spread was - 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On January 9, the rebar warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1811 tons week - on - week, and the net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract increased by 30564 lots [22]. - **Spot price and basis**: On January 9, the spot price of Hangzhou rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the national average price increased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, with the basis on the 9th at 196 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market - **Raw material prices**: On January 9, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port decreased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [34]. - **Iron ore supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports increased, and port inventories increased. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased [38]. - **Coking plant situation**: The capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory increased, and the available days of coking coal increased [42]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply - side - **Crude steel production**: In November 2025, China's crude steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [46]. - **Rebar production**: On January 8, the weekly rebar production increased by 2.82 million tons week - on - week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week - on - week [50][53]. - **Electric furnace steel**: The average operating rate of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 4.34 percentage points month - on - month [53]. - **Rebar inventory**: On January 8, the total rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons month - on - month [56]. 3.4.2. Demand - side - **Real estate**: From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.5% [59]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [59]. 3.5. Options Market - Due to the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot - rolled coil market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors. In the short term, influenced by macro factors, price fluctuations are amplified. It is recommended to operate the HC2605 contract in the range of 3250 - 3350, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary a. Market Review - As of January 9th, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3294 yuan/ton (+24), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+20). Hot - rolled coil production increased to 305.51 million tons (+1), with a year - on - year increase of 1.62 million tons. Apparent demand declined to 308.34 million tons (-2.43), with a year - on - year decrease of 5.33 million tons. Factory inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. The total inventory was 368.13 million tons (-2.83), with a year - on - year increase of 58.22 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and 12.99 percentage points from last year [8] b. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the US Congressional Budget Office predicts a slight interest - rate cut by the Fed this year. Domestically, the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the replacement policy has improved the industry's operating pressure. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, supporting the futures price. Coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded, but may enter a range - bound pattern. - **Technical - aspect**: The HC2605 contract rose and then pulled back. The daily K - line is above multiple moving averages, and the MACD shows an upward rebound [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price Performance - This week, the futures price of the HC2605 contract rose and then pulled back. It was weaker than the HC2610 contract, with a spread of - 24 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [16] b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On January 9th, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 139,537 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,349 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of hot - rolled coil futures contracts increased by 19,787 contracts to 6,907 contracts [21] c. Spot Price Performance - On January 9th, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3318 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price was weaker than the futures price, with a basis of 36 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [25] 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On January 9th, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [30] b. Ore Shipment and Arrival - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased. The arrival volume at Chinese ports increased, with the 45 - port arrival volume rising by 155.0 million tons [37] c. Ore and Billet Inventories - This week, iron ore port inventories increased to 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons. On January 8th, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei, was 1407,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 141,400 tons [42] d. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased to 71.61%, and the coke inventory decreased to 44.17 million tons [46] 4. Industry Conditions a. Supply Side - In November 2025, China's crude steel production decreased year - on - year. The weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased to 305.51 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.83 million tons [50][53][58] b. Demand Side - In 2025, from January to November, automobile production and sales, as well as home appliance production, increased year - on - year [61]