| 《八》国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月09日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 美国对等关税今日正式生效,并将本轮针对中国的加征比例自34%提升至84%,欧盟、加拿大反制措施亦陆续出 台,美国掀起的贸易战仍处升级阶段。OPEC+增产降价策略配合推动下的油价下跌部分对冲美国因贸易战引发的 通胀压力,美国关税政策未逆转则下跌压力延续,关注WT155-60美元/桶（对应布伦特60-65美元/桶、 SC430/90/ 成本支撑作用,2018年贸易战情景指向低点目标位布伦特57-58美元 ...

Macro Dynamics - The Chinese government emphasizes the role of the EU in alleviating tensions in the ongoing US-China trade war, highlighting the importance of maintaining free trade and stable global supply chains [2] Market Data - In March, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.94 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.4% and a month-on-month increase of 40.2%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 5.127 million units, up 6.0% year-on-year [4] - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.31%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.98%. The total trading volume was approximately 1.699 trillion yuan, an increase of about 73.96 billion yuan from the previous trading day [8] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.68% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.64%. Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of over 35.5 billion HKD, a new high [9] - The financing balance in the two markets decreased by 38.529 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange's financing balance at 921.356 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's at 878.946 billion yuan [11] - Brent crude oil prices fell below $60 for the first time since February 2021, with a daily drop of nearly 5%, marking a cumulative decline of 20% since April 1 [12] Company Dynamics - Ruixin Microelectronics refuted rumors regarding Samsung's wafer factory halting all operations in China, confirming that cooperation with Samsung is proceeding normally [13] - The UK government announced plans for the first Universal Studios theme park in Europe, set to open in 2031, which is expected to create 28,000 jobs during construction and 8,000 jobs in the hotel and creative industries upon opening [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of soymeal is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, while the long - term trend is bullish due to tariff policies. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [3]. - Crude oil prices are weakening and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and US - Iran negotiations [4]. - The copper market is currently mainly trading on the expectation of macro - economic recession, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the fundamentals are still resilient, and it is expected to return to the logic of tight supply and demand after the digestion of macro - negative sentiment [10]. - The lithium carbonate market is weakening, and the possibility of positive news is low. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract expected to operate between 68,000 - 77,000 yuan [12]. - The asphalt market is weakening and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner. Given the tight raw materials, the asphalt cracking spread is expected to strengthen [13][15]. - The PP market is expected to move downward in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [16]. - The plastic market is expected to move downward in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL, and short the 05 basis of plastic on highs [18]. - The PVC market is under short - term downward pressure [19]. - The palm oil 05 contract is under pressure and running weakly, and the soybean oil 09 contract is running weakly [20]. - The iron ore market should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side position and hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [21]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset at low levels in the short - term [23]. - The coking coal market should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset at low levels in the short - term [24]. - The urea market is mainly moving weakly and volatilely, with the main contract expected to oscillate widely between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [25][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soymeal - The main 09 contract of soymeal opened high and closed low today, with increased positions and a closing increase of 0.55%. - Internationally, Trump imposed additional tariffs on China. Domestically, China imposed counter - tariffs on the US. The soybean import supply has reached an inflection point, and the pressure is prominent. - The weekly soybean import volume of crushers is 1202,500 tons, a slight decrease of 2.63% from the previous week. The weekly output of soymeal is 813,700 tons, a decrease of 14.36% from the previous week. The weekly apparent demand has increased by 3.29%, and the inventory has decreased by 22.58% [3]. 3.2. Crude Oil - Trump signed an executive order to set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners. The benchmark tariff took effect on April 5th, and the reciprocal tariff on April 9th. - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting from May. Trump said the US will negotiate directly with Iran. - The market is worried about the global economy, and crude oil prices are weakening [4]. 3.3. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on April 9th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Shipping to Europe and PX fell by more than 6%, while eggs, ferrosilicon, and Shanghai gold rose by nearly 2%. - Stock index futures and treasury bond futures generally rose [6]. 3.4. Capital Flows - As of 15:19, funds flowed into Shanghai gold 2506 (1.515 billion yuan), 30 - year treasury bonds 2506 (493 million yuan), and soybean oil 2509 (256 million yuan). - Funds flowed out of Shanghai copper 2505 (2.974 billion yuan), PTA2505 (1.507 billion yuan), and ethylene glycol 2505 (959 million yuan) [8]. 3.5. Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed down today. The market is pessimistic about the economic outlook due to the trade war, and copper prices are under pressure. - In the long - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is improving. The copper market is expected to return to the logic of tight supply and demand [10]. 3.6. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market opened with slight fluctuations and strengthened in the afternoon. The price is affected by US tariff policies. - In March 2025, the domestic production increased by 25.2% month - on - month, and the planned production in April decreased by 4.6% month - on - month. The inventory increased by 1477 tons week - on - week [12]. 3.7. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate continued to decline. The downstream demand is recovering slowly, and the inventory is at a low level. - Affected by US tariff policies and the decline in crude oil prices, asphalt prices are weakening [13][15]. 3.8. PP - The downstream PP开工率 is basically stable at a low level. The enterprise开工率 has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has decreased. - The inventory has decreased, but the market is expected to move downward due to trade war concerns [16]. 3.9. Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased. The downstream demand is still at a low level, and the inventory has decreased. - Affected by US tariff policies and the decline in crude oil prices, the market is expected to move downward [18]. 3.10. PVC - The PVC开工率 has slightly decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is still high. - Affected by US tariff policies and the Indian anti - dumping policy, PVC prices are under pressure [19]. 3.11. Oils and Fats - The oils and fats sector fell today. Palm oil production in Malaysia increased in March, and Indonesia will adjust export taxes. - In China, palm oil import profits are inverted, and the demand is low. Soybean oil production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. Rapeseed oil inventory is high [20]. 3.12. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is affected by tariff policies and trade conflicts. The short - term fundamentals have some support, but the 09 contract is under pressure [21]. 3.13. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets are affected by trade conflicts. The demand is weak, and the export is expected to decline in the long - term. They are expected to move weakly at low levels [23]. 3.14. Coking Coal - The coking coal market has a loose supply - demand pattern. The spot market sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still under pressure due to macro risks [24]. 3.15. Urea - The urea supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to move weakly and volatilely, with the main contract operating between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating import tariffs imposed by the United States on various trading partners, particularly focusing on the significant increases in tariffs against China and other countries, which could lead to the highest actual tariff rates in over a century [2][3][6]. Group 1: Tariff Increases - The U.S. has proposed a "reciprocal tariff" plan, imposing tariffs ranging from 20% to 49% on various countries, with a specific 34% tariff on China [2][6]. - If implemented, the actual tariff rate on all U.S. imports could rise from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to approximately 26%, marking a significant increase [2][3]. - The tariffs on China alone could exceed 70% when combined with previous tariffs from 2018, indicating a severe escalation compared to the trade war initiated in 2018 [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in tariffs is expected to exacerbate inflation in the U.S., which is already experiencing high inflation rates, potentially leading to higher consumer prices [9][10]. - The effectiveness of increased tariffs in generating substantial government revenue is questioned, as exporters may reduce shipments to the U.S. if profitability declines [9][10]. - The challenges of revitalizing U.S. manufacturing are highlighted, particularly due to the high labor costs compared to emerging economies, making it difficult to compete effectively [9][10]. Group 3: Global Economic Impact - The trade war initiated by the U.S. is likely to harm not only the U.S. economy but also increase the risk of a global economic recession due to disrupted supply chains and rising transaction costs [10][11]. - Historical context is provided, noting that the current geopolitical tensions and economic disparities have roots in long-standing global dynamics, including the rise of China and the decline of traditional Western powers [11][13]. Group 4: China's Response and Strategy - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has implemented a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods, indicating a restrained approach while leaving room for negotiation [6][22]. - The article emphasizes the need for China to reduce reliance on external demand and focus on domestic consumption to stabilize its economy amid rising tariffs [22][24]. - The shift towards enhancing domestic demand is underscored, with the government prioritizing consumption as a key strategy to counteract the negative effects of tariffs [32][34]. Group 5: Future Economic Strategies - The article suggests that China should strengthen regional alliances and enhance trade cooperation with countries in Southeast Asia and South America to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [25][29]. - It advocates for a focus on domestic economic reforms, including income redistribution and fiscal policy adjustments to stimulate consumption and support lower-income groups [39][41]. - The potential for monetary policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, is discussed as a means to alleviate economic pressures resulting from the trade war [42][44].

Core Insights - Intel is facing significant challenges, including loss of market share to AMD, struggles in the AI accelerator market, and heavy investments in new manufacturing facilities [1] - The new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, aims to scale up production of the Intel 18A manufacturing process while attracting new clients for the foundry business [2] Foundry Development - The Intel 18A manufacturing process is fully developed and in limited production, marking progress in Intel's foundry efforts [2] - The challenge remains to achieve profitability by scaling production and acquiring new customers [2] Tariff Implications - Current global tariffs exclude semiconductors, but future tariffs could apply, potentially benefiting Intel's foundry as clients may prefer the Intel 18A process [3][4] - Tariffs on semiconductor manufacturing equipment will increase costs for Intel's U.S. manufacturing expansion, as a typical facility requires around 1,200 multimillion-dollar tools [5] - Increased tariffs could lead to higher prices and reduced demand for PCs and servers, negatively impacting Intel's product business [6] Dependency on TSMC - Intel is a significant customer of TSMC, outsourcing production of key PC chips, which could be adversely affected by tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors [7] - The shift of Intel's server CPU production to Ireland will also face a 20% tariff under the current plan [8] Investment Outlook - While there are reasons to consider Intel's potential comeback, tariffs are likely to complicate this recovery, with risks of decreased demand for CPUs and increased manufacturing costs [9][11] - The shift to U.S.-based manufacturing for the Panther Lake CPU may reduce reliance on TSMC, but uncertainty remains regarding the future of tariffs [10]

Group 1: Walt Disney - Walt Disney has faced challenges in achieving profitability in its streaming business and has potentially overvalued its theme parks without sufficient investment in customer experience [3] - In the most recent quarter, Disney's revenue increased by 5%, with operating income and adjusted earnings per share growing by 31% and 44% respectively, attributed to management's focus on efficiency [4] - Disney is currently trading at its lowest price-to-sales multiple since the financial crisis, approximately 30% below its recent high, presenting a potential entry point for long-term investors [5] - For the current fiscal year, Disney anticipates about $15 billion in operating cash flow and $3 billion in buybacks, with a long-term investment plan of $60 billion in its parks over the next decade [6] Group 2: Starbucks - Starbucks experienced a significant stock rally in August 2024 with the announcement of Brian Niccol as the new CEO, but the stock has since fallen by 30%, reaching its lowest price since before his hiring [7] - Niccol has initiated a turnaround plan called "Back to Starbucks," which includes simplifying the menu, reducing wait times, and enhancing the in-café experience, showing promising early results [8] - The latest earnings report exceeded analyst expectations, although comparable sales saw a slight year-over-year decline; however, key customer-related metrics improved on a sequential basis [9] - Starbucks is currently trading at a historically low price-to-sales ratio, and if the turnaround efforts succeed in revitalizing growth and improving margins, the current price may represent a bargain for long-term investors [12] Group 3: Tariff Risks - Both Walt Disney and Starbucks are significantly exposed to China, with Starbucks operating nearly 7,600 stores in the country, representing about 19% of its total [13] - Both companies are cyclical and depend on consumer spending, which could be adversely affected if tariffs lead to inflation or a recession [14] - Despite the risks, both companies are viewed as attractive long-term investments, with the potential for steady growth over the years [15]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 免责声明 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | 2025/4/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 最新 | 最新 环比 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1704.700 | | -119.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 1703.2 -151.80↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2506-EC2508价差 1.50 +2.50↑ EC2506-EC2510价差 428.90 | | -68.00↓ | | EC合约基差 | -282.28 +62.30↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 34705 -227↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1422.42 -51.14↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,129.45 ...

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed a decline, with significant drops in shipping European lines and PX over 6%, while synthetic rubber and 20 rubber hit the limit down [1][2] - The overall market sentiment is negative, with various commodities such as PTA, crude oil, and paper pulp also experiencing declines of over 4% [1][2] - The rubber market has seen a drop of over 2000 yuan this week, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than its own fundamentals [3][4] Group 2 - The shipping price is expected to remain weak, with uncertainty in near-term changes and overall weak trade demand in the long term [3] - PX's weak pattern persists due to low operating rates compared to other chemical fiber industries, with international oil prices significantly impacting PX prices [3] - The rubber market is suggested to be suitable for low-position short-term buying, with a focus on the 2509 contract below the 14000 yuan mark [4]

证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 能源化工小组 研究员：李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 综述: 关税冲击下，橡胶全面转空 供给层面： 4 月国内产区逐渐进入开割阶段，南部产区逐步进入季节性旺产季， 原料产出有季节性增加预期，新一年开割预期走强，供应端利空市场。 进口层面：3 月海外船货生产多集中在旺产期，供应相对充足，海外采购节奏放 缓下，上游工厂多集中往中国发运，但有部分大厂船期推迟，环比 2 月增量有限。 需求层面： 预计 4 月橡胶需求受到美国"对等关税"的影响，轮胎样本企业产能 利用率大幅走低。目前轮胎企业整体库存较为充足，然市场需求疲弱，企业去库 缓慢， 加之 4 月份，部分企业新订单接单不及预期，部分企业排产存下调预期， 将对整体样本企业产能利用率形成一定拖拽。 库存表现：预计 4 月份，延续累库趋势。 宏观方面：关注"对等关税"中美互相加码的力度，对全球贸易有重大打击。 美国"对等关税"对中国轮胎及汽车出口 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.51% and the S&P 500 declining by 1.57% [1][3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed with a 3.79% increase year-to-date [1] Industry Insights Internet Industry - Companies with defensive attributes and those benefiting from domestic demand are expected to perform well under current market conditions [4] - Recommended stocks include NetEase (NTES US) and Tencent Music (TME US) for their growth potential in gaming and music sectors [4] - Ctrip (TCOM US) and Meituan (3690 HK) are highlighted for their resilience in domestic and outbound travel demand [4] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. has announced "reciprocal tariffs," which may lead to additional tariffs on the semiconductor sector [5] - The trend towards domestic substitution in China's semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate, benefiting companies like Huahong Semiconductor (1347 HK) and North Huachuang (002371 CH) [5] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong domestic replacement capabilities, especially in AI and analog semiconductor sectors [5] Insurance Industry - Recent regulatory changes allow for an increase in equity investment limits for insurance funds, potentially injecting an estimated CNY 1.66 trillion into the stock market [6][7] - The new regulations raise the equity asset allocation limit to 50%, which could significantly enhance the investment capacity of insurance companies [6][7] - The core equity assets of listed insurance companies are expected to increase, reflecting a shift towards higher-yielding stocks in a low-interest-rate environment [8] Engineering Machinery Industry - Strong sales growth in excavators and wheel loaders was reported, with domestic sales increasing by 29% and 23% year-on-year, respectively [8] - Companies like SANY Heavy Industry (600031 CH) and Zoomlion (1157 HK) are recommended due to their strong market positions and sales performance [8] Company Analysis Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) - The company faces challenges due to new U.S. tariffs, which could significantly impact its revenue, as the U.S. market accounts for nearly 30% of its total income [9][10] - The rating has been downgraded to "Hold" with a target price of CNY 51, reflecting concerns over future profitability [9][10] Focus Stocks - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile (175 HK), Xpeng Motors (XPEV US), and Tencent (700 HK), all showing significant upside potential based on current valuations [11]