有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 6 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.06%至 77600 元/吨。美 国 4 月非农就业人口增长达到 17.7 万人，就业增长强劲，失业率亦保持 稳定，但制造业产出出现自 2020 年以来最严重的萎缩，中国 PMI 数据 也对关税影响有所体现。同时 4 月份发往美国的精炼铜货物超过 17 万 吨，或将超过 2001 年 11 月份大约 14.2 万吨所创历史最高，美铜承压， 带动假日海外市场一度大跌，但随后持续反弹。国内假日期间铜价整体 大幅波动，小幅下跌。基本面上，铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC 持 续探底跌破-40 美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保持韧 性，但炼厂压力在增大。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库并未受 到明显影响，纽约大幅垒库，但国内大幅去库，LME 库存亦在减少，铜 的供需基本面仍偏紧张。供应端矿端压力延续并有加大趋势，废铜进口 可能受限。但铜价进一步上行将对需求带来抑制，而特朗普政府贸易战 对全球经济带来的拖累仍将对铜整体需求带来不利影响，或将在需求端 逐步显现，因而铜价上行空间也受到限制。节后沪铜或仍维持震荡格局， 建 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened higher, moved lower, and then oscillated upward. The market is currently in a multi - short game, and the copper price is restricted by the macro direction. As the subsequent macro sentiment is gradually digested, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals, and the price will remain in the oscillation range in the short term [1]. - The supply side has a maintenance plan in the second quarter. Although domestic refined copper production is at a high level and imports are increasing, the market still has an expectation of tight supply. The demand side shows relatively strong downstream demand during the peak season, and the decline in copper inventory provides support for the market [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - In terms of international news, it is expected that Trump will take measures to mitigate the impact of automobile tariffs. Domestically, policies will be mainly implemented in the second quarter to deal with the impact of US tariffs [1]. - On the supply side, TC/RC fees are negative and expanding. The high sulfuric acid price makes up for some losses of smelters, but there are still maintenance plans. In March, the domestic refined copper production was 1248000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, and the imported refined copper was 354300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The growth rate of imports slowed down this month [1]. - On the demand side, after the price increase, the pre - May Day stocking was scattered. The downstream demand was relatively strong during the peak season, and the downstream operating rate was high. In the first two months of 2025, China's net refined copper imports decreased by 11%, while the global usage outside China increased by about 0.5%. Copper inventory decreased significantly this month [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The intraday Shanghai copper opened higher, moved lower, and closed up. It closed at 77600 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 108371 lots, an increase of 1852 lots; the short positions were 104599 lots, an increase of 2200 lots [4]. - Spot: On April 29, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 245 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 9369 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 3.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of April 18, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 33.65 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.37 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 34000 tons, a decrease of 28000 tons from the previous period. As of April 28, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95800 tons, a decrease of 15400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 202500 tons, a slight decrease of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 135100 short tons, an increase of 3168 short tons from the previous period [11].

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic rubber futures 2509 contract decreased by 0.27% to 14,730 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread widening to 180 CNY/ton [1] - Supply expectations are rising as the new cutting season approaches, while tire manufacturers face operational pressure ahead of the May Day holiday [1] Group 2: Methanol Market - Domestic methanol futures 2509 contract increased by 0.96% to 2,310 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread narrowing to 79 CNY/ton [1] - Methanol production is on the rise, with weekly output averaging 1.899 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 210,100 tons [1] Group 3: Oil Market - Domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract rose by 0.83% to 498.0 CNY/barrel, with market sentiment showing mixed signals [1] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.46 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 360,000 barrels per day [1] Group 4: Tire Industry - The operating load of domestic tire manufacturers for all-steel tires was 65.79%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.65% [1] - The operating load for semi-steel tires was 72.36%, down 1.84 percentage points week-on-week and significantly down 8.64 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 5: Automotive Industry - In March, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million units, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 42.9% and 37% [1] - In Q1, cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.470 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 11.2% [1]

撰写品种：沥青 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周度 研究员 ：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 沥青周度报告 一、本周沥青期货行情回顾 本周沥青期货主力合约 BU2506 呈现先扬后抑的态势。主力合约开盘价为 3369 元 / 吨，周内最高价触及 3430 元 / 吨，最低价下探至 3345 元 / 吨，最终收盘价 为 3401 元 / 吨，较上周收盘价下跌 5 元，跌幅 0.15%。结算价为 3385 元 / 吨。 成交量方面：本周累计成交约 85 万手，日均成交 17 万手，较上周活跃度有所下 降。持仓量环比上周减持 19448 手，收于 14.36 万手，显示市场资金参与度有所降低。 供给端：国内 54 家主要沥青企业厂库库存为 89.7 万吨，环比下降 3.6 万吨。 不过，国内 104 家贸易商库存为 194.6 万吨，虽环比仅下降 0.2 万吨，但整体库存 水平仍处于高位。 需求端：尽管天气持续转暖，理论上有利于道路施工等下游需求的释放，但实际情 况并不乐观。重交沥青开工率仅为 28.5%，虽较上周略有上升，但仍处于历史同期较低 水平。改性沥青产能利用率为 7.2%，环比增加 ...

4 正文目录 1 市场回顾 .....................................................................4 1.1 现货价格振荡回升，基差走阔 ............................................... 4 1.2 期价上涨，月差转为升水 ................................................... 4 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 4 月 28 日 橡胶周报 利空因素消化 橡胶震荡企稳 核心观点 2 ...

【周二沪铜阴线整理，现钢报 76195 元】上海升水 40 元，广东升水 55 元，精废价差 660 元。晚间市场 关注联储官员讲话，明日关注国内一季度指标。3 月进出口数据显示，国内家电、集成电路板块抢出口 增量明显。精铜一季度累计进口量减少 5.2%至 130.3 万吨，铜精矿进口环增 1.8%。短期铜市由中国供 需基本面及美铜物流支撑。伦铜倾向 9300 - 9500 美元阻力强，沪铜上方阻力在 7.65 - 7.7 万，反弹空 配。【今日沪铝小幅回落】华东现货平水，华南贴水 20 元。铝市供应低增速下近期去库强劲，过去一 周铝锭铝棒社库分别下降 5 万吨和 2.2 万吨，总库存处于近年最低水平。不过贸易战对全球需求前景的 打击程度仍有待观察，市场对于宏观风险的交易会有反复。沪铝技术面向下破位后，上方面临两万整数 关口和均线压制，预计本周 19000 元运行。4 月氧化铝厂集中检修，平衡有改善，但多数企业将在检修 后恢复生产，长期产量影响量级难改过剩格局。矿石价格处于下跌通道，上周氧化铝低点 2600 元附近 已经对应了矿石价格跌至 70 美元的成本预期，该位置继续向下空间已有限。近日几内亚某矿企运营出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market have drawn significant attention from investors, with a notable downward trend observed. The article aims to analyze the underlying factors driving these price movements and their implications for investment decisions. Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index influences gold prices, typically leading to price increases when the dollar weakens, as seen in the 2020 dollar depreciation cycle where gold prices rose by 25% [3] - Actual interest rates, based on the yield of U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), affect gold prices; a decline in real rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus pushing prices higher. Investors are advised to monitor Federal Reserve policy meetings and CPI data for potential shifts in interest rates [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - Local wars and major power rivalries, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trigger demand for safe-haven assets like gold. For instance, gold prices surged over 3% in the first week of the Russia-Ukraine war. The correlation between the fear index (VIX) and gold prices has a historical R² value of approximately 0.6 [5] - A strategy is suggested to buy gold ETFs at the onset of conflicts and gradually reduce holdings as tensions ease [5] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Emerging market central banks have been increasing their gold reserves to hedge against dollar risks, with global central bank purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2022, the highest in 55 years. Major buyers include China, India, and Turkey [6] Group 4: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - On the supply side, global gold mine production is approximately 3,600 tons annually, with potential short-term supply disruptions due to strikes in major producing regions like South Africa [8] - On the demand side, significant jewelry demand arises during India's wedding season and China's Spring Festival, accounting for 50% of global consumption, while industrial gold usage (e.g., in chip manufacturing) represents about 8% [9] - An investment window is identified for purchasing physical gold or gold stocks 1-2 months before peak consumption seasons [10] Group 5: Technical Signals - Key price levels, such as $2,000 per ounce, serve as psychological resistance points, with potential for accelerated price increases upon breaking through these levels [11] - An increase in net long positions in COMEX gold futures indicates rising bullish sentiment. Suggested tools include MACD crossovers and RSI overbought/oversold signals [12] Group 6: Strategy Toolbox - A dollar-cost averaging strategy is recommended, involving fixed monthly investments in gold ETFs to smooth out price volatility, with historical annualized returns of about 6% over the past decade [13] - A hedging strategy is proposed where gold futures and stocks exhibit a negative correlation of -0.4 during stock market downturns, which can help reduce portfolio risk [14] - Event-driven strategies suggest increasing positions in gold options ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts or geopolitical crises to capture volatility [15]

证券研究报告 基础材料 供需基本面偏强，有色或高位震荡 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 09 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十周） 本周观点：供需基本面偏强，有色或高位震荡 上周美国公布 2 月非农就业人数 15.1 万人，略低于市场预期，失业率 4.1% 环比上升，美国经济边际走弱趋势显现，金价上周企稳回升，基本金属偏强 震荡。基本金属方面，当前绝对价格偏高下，铜、铝消费依旧偏强，国内社 库均转向去库，基本面乐观情况下，预计短期依旧偏强震荡。贵金属方面， 美国经济边际走弱趋势凸显，美联储 25 年降息空间或上升，预计金价短期 震荡偏强。锂方面，根据 SMM 周度库存样本数据，国内库存数据累库，预 期三月下游需求环比恢复或偏弱，我们认为碳酸锂价格或偏弱震荡。 重点公司及动态 1）铜价高位，推荐低估值行业龙头紫金矿业；2）铝加工板块利润受此前 出口退税取消政策影响逐步消除，推荐低估值明泰铝业 子行业观点 1）基本金属：国内库存转向去化，基本金属或偏强震荡；2）贵金属：美 国经济边际走弱，金价或短期偏强震荡；3）稀土：供给端约束预期加强， 稀土价格或偏强震荡；4）锂：上周累库幅度较多，短期预计碳酸锂价格或 偏弱震荡。 ...