日度报告——综合晨报 A 股成交额 3.64 万亿元创历史新高 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-13 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国司法部对美联储主席开启"刑事调查" 美联储独立性再次受到挑战，但美股市场风险偏好继续温和回 升，多数板块均录得上涨。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股成交额 3.64 万亿元创历史新高 综 A 股量能放大，但盘后部分上市公司表示主营业务与商业航天等 热点题材无关，为市场降温。我们认为监管层面出手概率较大， 市场自我实现后的调整是接下来重要风险点。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 鲍威尔：调查事关美联储独立性 报 贵金属再度大涨，美联储主席鲍威尔被提起诉讼，引发市场对 美联储独立性的担忧进一步增加，特朗普对降息的执念滥用法 律的行为引发市场广泛担忧，共和党议员公开反对特朗普。 农产品（豆粕） 上周油厂豆粕库存下降 USDA 月度供需报告及季度库存报告利空，CBOT 大豆大幅下 跌。由于上周油厂开机偏低，而豆粕提货量周环比增加，上周 油厂豆粕库存下降 12.6 万吨至 104.4 万吨。 油价上涨，伊朗供应不确定性导致风险溢价上升。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 | （黑色金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high of nearly $4600 per ounce, with a significant annual increase of approximately 70% in 2025, marking the largest annual rise since the 1979 oil crisis [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current surge in international gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year. From 2020 to 2023, gold prices frequently surpassed $2000 per ounce, and in 2024, they exceeded $2800 per ounce with a 27% annual increase. By March 2025, prices crossed $3000 per ounce, and by October, they surpassed $4000 per ounce, culminating in a record high near $4600 per ounce by year-end [1] - Domestic gold prices in China have also risen significantly, with gold jewelry prices increasing from around 800 yuan per gram to approximately 1360 yuan per gram within the year [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle and the weakening dollar have reduced the holding costs of gold [1] - Geopolitical risks and rising global economic uncertainties have intensified market demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, leading to a surge in prices [2] - Central banks worldwide are diversifying their reserves and significantly increasing gold holdings, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3: Related Precious Metals - The increase in international gold prices has also led to substantial rises in other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% and palladium over 100% last year. The strong performance of gold has activated sector rotation, boosting the overall valuation of precious metals [2] - Industrial demand for certain precious metals, such as silver, has also supported price increases, driven by rapid developments in industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to enter a new phase of dynamic balance and multiple forces at play by 2026, according to industry experts [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach, recognize market risks, and follow diversification principles in their gold investments, employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging to smooth returns [3]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the actions of the Trump administration regarding Venezuela and Iran, which have injected political risks into the global oil market [5][6][22]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices fluctuated significantly, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $59.50 per barrel, up 0.64%, and Brent crude oil futures at $63.87 per barrel, up 0.84% [7][23]. - The market's focus has shifted from Venezuela to the unrest in Iran, with concerns about potential U.S. military intervention causing oil prices to rise again after an initial drop [5][21]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The Trump administration's interventions in Venezuela have increased U.S. control over key oil resources, creating political uncertainty that affects global oil markets [6][22]. - The situation in Iran remains a significant risk, with the potential for military action by the U.S. contributing to market volatility [5][6][22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite geopolitical tensions, the actual supply of oil remains adequate, with the physical market in the Middle East showing weakness [6][22]. - The Brent crude oil month spread has recently rebounded, indicating that geopolitical factors are adding a risk premium to oil prices [6][22]. Group 4: Developments in Venezuela - Global commodity traders Vitol and Trafigura have gained an early advantage in controlling Venezuelan oil, surpassing U.S. oil giants who are hesitant due to legal risks [24][25]. - The U.S. government is collaborating with these traders to expedite the flow of Venezuelan oil exports, which is crucial for funding the interim government [24][25]. Group 5: Iranian Situation - Iran claims to have regained control over domestic unrest, which has eased short-term supply concerns, but the geopolitical situation remains fluid [27][28]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on any country engaging in business with Iran, further complicating the geopolitical landscape [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected fluctuations in gold prices, driven by central bank demand, investment interest, and geopolitical risks, with projections indicating potential price movements between $4,500 and $5,100 per ounce in the coming months [1][2]. Group 1: Price Projections - The next key psychological and technical resistance level for gold is anticipated to be around $4,800 per ounce [1] - DBS Bank forecasts that gold prices may fluctuate around $4,500 per ounce in the first half of the year, with a potential rise to $5,100 per ounce in the second half [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Central bank allocation and investment demand are identified as key drivers for the increase in gold prices [1] - There is a strong willingness among central banks to increase gold holdings amid global trends of "de-dollarization" and "debt reduction" [1] - Concerns over the expanding scale of U.S. Treasury bonds have led investors to view gold as an alternative asset, further boosting investment demand [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Current high levels of global geopolitical risks are enhancing market risk aversion, providing strong support for rising gold prices [2] - Financial institutions, including Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued warnings regarding gold trading risks and adjusted rules to help investors manage market volatility [2]

周一油价上涨，因市场担忧伊朗在镇压多年以来最大规模的反政府示威活动期间可能减少出口，这一担 忧抵消了另一受制裁的欧佩克成员国委内瑞拉供应可能增加的预期。 布伦特原油期货上涨0.67美元，涨幅为1.1%，收于每桶64.01美元。 纽约商品交易所2月交割的西得州中质原油(WTI)期货价格上涨0.38美元，涨幅为0.6%，收于每桶59.50 美元。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 伊朗周一表示，正与美国保持沟通渠道畅通，而美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正在权衡如何回应针对全国性 抗议活动的致命镇压——这些抗议活动构成了自1979年伊斯兰革命以来对神权统治最严峻的挑战之一。 一名美国官员告诉媒体称，特朗普预计将于周二会见高级顾问，讨论针对伊朗的选项。 委内瑞拉即将恢复石油出口 知情人士称，在总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被美国强行掳走后，委内瑞拉预计将很快恢复石油出口。 特朗普上周表示，委内瑞拉政府将向美国移交多达5000万桶受西方制裁的石油。四位熟悉相关操作的消 息人士称，这已引发石油公司争相寻找油轮并筹备安全运输原油的操作。在周五的一次白宫会议上，跨 国大宗商品公司托克（Trafigura）表示，其首艘油轮将在下周装货。 其他地区的供 ...

格隆汇1月13日｜由于对美联储独立性及地缘政治风险的担忧，现货黄金站上4630美元/盎司，日内涨幅达2.46%；现货白银突破86美元/盎司，日内涨 7.62%。 ...

在美国检察官对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查后，引发了市场对美联储独立性的担忧，黄金持续刷新历史新高 周一美盘，黄金一度涨超2%，并将历史记录刷新至4620美元上方，白银一度暴涨超7%。截止发稿前，二者均有所回落。 资产管理公司Carmignac的投资委员会成员Kevin Thozet表示，风险在于白宫与美联储之间在未来几个季度可能会"不再手下留情"。鲍威尔上周日表示，美联 储收到了大陪审团的传票以及司法部关于刑事起诉的威胁，这与他在国会就央行总部25亿美元翻新工程的证词有关。 投资者表示，美元和黄金的走势反映出一种风险，即由于政治压力，美国政策利率可能会被压低至低于本应有的水平，从而可能导致长期通胀上升和货币政 策的不确定性。 Fidelity International的基金经理Mike Riddell说："我们以前经历过这种情况——对美联储的政治压力意味着美元走弱、美国长期国债收益率走高以及通胀预 期上升。" 但市场波动的规模相对较小，许多投资者仍押注利率制定者将保持独立。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在伦敦的一次会议上表示："我的预期依然是，委员 会将继续根据其授权和经济数据做出决定。" 黄金和 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 因担忧美国总统特朗普试图掌控格陵兰岛的举动或将引发地缘政治裂痕、瓦解北约、冲击全球秩序并损 害美元信誉，投资者纷纷大举加仓黄金与欧洲防务类股。 尽管无论格陵兰岛局势如何演变，市场均预计这两类资产的涨势将延续，但投资者仍面临两难困境，即 如何布局才能应对潜在的长期负面影响。 特朗普意图通过收购甚至军事手段掌控这块丹麦领土，然而格陵兰岛方面明确拒绝成为美国的一部分， 这一立场也得到了欧洲与加拿大的支持。 此前，投资者大多对特朗普的这一企图不以为意，但美国通过突然军事突袭强行控制委内瑞拉强人马杜 罗的举动，令其野心的落地可能性陡然上升。 对于在去年关税风波后期待市场风险有所缓和的投资者而言，这一消息使得2026年的开局显得颇为棘 手。 与此同时，特朗普还在考虑介入伊朗国内动荡，而美国政府威胁起诉美联储主席鲍威尔的行为，也再度 引发了市场对于美联储独立性的担忧。 继马杜罗被扣押后，国际金价上周大涨逾4%，并在周一刷新历史新高；欧洲国防股指数（SXPARO） 同样在周一创下历史峰值，且上周录得超五年以来的最大单周涨幅，涨幅高达10%。 "从当前的金价走势就能明显 ...

委内瑞拉局势还未平息，国际原油市场的焦点已经转向伊朗。 近日，伊朗反政府示威不断升温失控。据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普正在考虑多个干涉伊朗方案，包 括宣布向中东派遣航母战斗群、发动网络攻击和信息战等。 1月12日，据《华尔街日报》报道，美国可能为伊朗抗议者提供星链互联网服务。 分析指出，产油国伊朗正陷入内外交困的危机漩涡，可能给全球石油市场带来更为深远的冲击。 动荡升级 伊朗正面临三年来最大规模的社会动荡。 2025年12月28日，伊朗首都德黑兰商户因伊朗货币里亚尔对美元汇率跌至历史新低（142万比1）以及生 活成本飙升而关门歇业并举行抗议，随后抗议活动迅速蔓延至全国约20个省份，并造成人员伤亡。 根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的最新预测，2025年伊朗通胀率预计将飙升至43.3%，位居全球前列， 而实际GDP增长率预计仅为0.6%，较2024年的3.7%大幅下降。 同时，2025年伊朗人均GDP约为4070美元，较2024年出现了回落，且明显低于2011年、2012年的阶段性 峰值。 自2018年美国单方面退出伊核协议以来，伊朗遭受了西方多轮制裁，经济受到严重打击。佛罗里达州国 际大学政治与国际关系系副教授 ...

1月12日，地缘政治风险的急剧上升，直接刺激了避险资产需求，推动现货黄金价格强势上涨。周一（1 月12日）亚市时段，现货黄金延续前两个交易日涨势，截至9：00，日内涨幅约1.7%，一度触及4601美 元/盎司的历史新高，目前有所回落，现交投于每盎司4580美元附近。现货白银今日早盘时刻也刷新历 史高点触及84美元。 基本消息面： 地缘政治风险全面升温成为首要推手。近期美伊紧张关系骤然升级，对全球市场构成冲击；一方面，伊 朗国内因经济危机爆发大规模抗议，局势动荡；另一方面，美国总统特朗普公开威胁可能采取军事等方 式进行干预，以支持抗议者。当地时间11日晚间，以色列国防军表示，一周前，以军曾通知黎巴嫩政府 军该地点存在军事活动，但相关基础设施未被完全拆除，因此决定再次采取行动，当天再次对黎巴嫩境 内一处真主党使用的地下武器储存设施实施空袭。欧洲方面，俄乌战场持续陷僵持，乌克兰首都基辅曾 响起强烈爆炸声，虽然媒体新闻并无报道北约实质进驻乌克兰，但钱到位，人到位，已经是一个事实。 美国联邦检察官已对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，该调查由特朗普任命的检察官主导，被广泛视为 特朗普政府因利率分歧而对美联储施加的政治压力， ...