地缘政治风险
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丰茂股份:公司将持续审慎评估并积极管理地缘政治风险
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng· 2025-11-07 10:36
Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of addressing geopolitical risks and has implemented several measures to ensure the stability and competitiveness of its overseas operations [1] Group 1: Measures to Address Geopolitical Risks - The company is advancing local production by constructing a production base in Thailand to increase overseas capacity and adapt to changes in international trade dynamics, thereby reducing potential tariffs and trade friction [1] - The company is optimizing its market layout, with a focus on diversifying its market strategy to reduce reliance on any single region, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia [1] - The company is strengthening communication with customers and conducting ongoing analysis of global political, economic, and trade policy trends to enhance the foresight of its business decisions [1] Group 2: Commitment to Long-term Performance - The company is committed to continuously assessing and actively managing geopolitical risks to strive for long-term stable returns for investors [1]
贵金属策略报告-20251107
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 10:27
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The report expects precious metals to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long - term. Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. In terms of silver, there are small increases in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in recent visible silver inventories [1][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term for hedging, the negative impact of the China - US talks has materialized, while risks such as a US government shutdown and geopolitical changes still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut remains. In terms of the hedging attribute, the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, the US government shutdown reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history, and the US Supreme Court questioned the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs. Regarding the monetary attribute, private reports show a decrease in US employment positions in October and a surge in layoffs to a 22 - year high for the same period. The overall labor demand is still slowing down, and salary growth remains stagnant. The Fed's interest rate cut path has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. The market expects a 70% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and falling. For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - **Data**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3984.80 per ounce, down $5.60 (-0.14%) from the previous day and down $53.50 (-1.32%) from the previous week. London gold is $3986.50 per ounce, up $18.30 (0.46%) from the previous day and down $7.65 (-0.19%) from the previous week. The closing price of SHFE gold主力 is 921.26 yuan per gram, up 3.46 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day and down 0.66 yuan (-0.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 917.64 yuan per gram, up 0.13 yuan (0.01%) from the previous day and down 3.38 yuan (-0.37%) from the previous week. There are also data on positions, inventories, etc. [2] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] Silver - **Core Logic**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. There are small increases in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in recent visible silver inventories [6] - **Data**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $47.85 per ounce, down $0.02 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.88 (-1.82%) from the previous week. London silver is $48.69 per ounce, up $1.08 (2.26%) from the previous day and up $0.51 (1.05%) from the previous week. The closing price of SHFE silver主力 is 11484 yuan per kilogram, up 57 yuan (0.50%) from the previous day and up 43 yuan (0.38%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 11480 yuan per kilogram, up 59 yuan (0.52%) from the previous day and up 70 yuan (0.61%) from the previous week. There are also data on positions, inventories, etc. [7] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4%, the discount rate is 4%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.9%, and the Fed's total assets are $66236.43 billion, down $167.70 billion (-0.00%) from the previous period. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous period [9] - **Other Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 0.02 (0.84%) from the previous day and up 0.04 (1.70%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 99.71, down 0.45 (-0.45%) from the previous day and up 0.19 (0.19%) from the previous week. There are also data on US Treasury spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, and IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios [9][11][13]
贵金属日评:美国就业表现趋弱支撑贵金属价格-20251107
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of corporate lay - offs in the US in October has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Along with factors such as the Fed providing liquidity, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metal prices may be supported [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai Gold futures' closing price was 917.80 yuan/g, with a change of 5.54 yuan compared to the previous day and - 4.12 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,433.00, a decrease of 157,531.00 from the previous day. The inventory remained at 87,816.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3941.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 43.10 dollars compared to the previous day and - 5.60 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 281,102.00, a decrease of 97,457.00 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot price was 3968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 20.20 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai Silver futures' closing price was 11427.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 151.00 yuan compared to the previous day and - 14.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 571,201.00, a decrease of 306,143.00 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 47.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 0.57 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 74,607.00, a decrease of 24,464.00 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot price was 47.61 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.51 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The direction of the Fed's December rate cut is unclear. This year's voting members are hesitant due to the government shutdown, and next year's members are more concerned about inflation. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4%, and the expectation of a December rate cut is rising [1]. - The AI revolution has accelerated the lay - off wave. In October, the number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US increased by 175.3% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in twenty years. The private data provider Revelio Labs reported a decrease of 9100 in non - farm employment in October [1]. Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1].
美欧制裁俄油企事件发酵 全球油气市场再掀波澜
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-11-07 02:42
Group 1 - The Western sanctions against the Russian oil and gas industry continue, with the US and EU implementing new restrictions on Russian oil companies, impacting global oil trade flows [1][2] - The sanctions have led to a temporary increase in international oil prices, with NYMEX and ICE crude oil contracts rising by $3.29 and $3.40 respectively on October 23, but prices have since retraced significantly [2][5] - India's oil imports from Russia are expected to be affected, with a slight decrease projected for 2025, but overall imports remain significantly higher than in 2022 [2][3] Group 2 - Indian refiners are likely to comply with the sanctions, but the government is seeking alternatives to replace the 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil, which could impact global oil prices [3][4] - The Indian refining sector has begun adjusting its crude import structure, increasing imports from Colombia, Canada, and the Middle East while reducing Russian oil imports [3][4] - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026 after a slight increase in December, reflecting concerns over global supply-demand balance amid geopolitical risks [4][5] Group 3 - OPEC+ aims to balance market share and oil prices, having restored 2.7 million barrels per day of production since April, but faces challenges from US shale oil production [4][5] - There is a significant divergence in forecasts between OPEC and the International Energy Agency regarding global oil demand and supply, indicating uncertainty in the market [5]
贵金属策略报告-20251106
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Core Logic - In the short - term, although the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, risks such as geopolitical changes and the US government shutdown still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is slowing down [1]. - The results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. The US Supreme Court questions the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs, focusing on whether the authorization of the "Emergency State Law" has been abused [1]. - The path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. ADP employment data shows that the overall labor demand is still slowing down, and wage growth has been stagnant, adding uncertainty to whether the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in December. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction as of December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain at around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [1][3][7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3990.40 per ounce, up $49.10 (1.25%) from the previous day and up $48.70 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London gold is $3968.20 per ounce, up $17.10 (0.43%) from the previous day and down $38.50 (- 0.96%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 917.80 yuan per gram, up 5.54 yuan (0.61%) from the previous day and up 5.64 yuan (0.62%) from last week. The closing price of gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 917.51 yuan per gram, up 7.98 yuan (0.88%) from the previous day and up 10.23 yuan (1.13%) from last week [2]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETFs are also provided [2]. Silver Core Logic - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $47.86 per ounce, up $0.96 (2.06%) from the previous day and up $0.59 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London silver is $47.61 per ounce, down $0.15 (- 0.31%) from the previous day and down $0.56 (- 1.17%) from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 11427.00 yuan per kilogram, up 151.00 yuan (1.34%) from the previous day and up 174.00 yuan (1.55%) from last week. The closing price of silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 11421.00 yuan per kilogram, up 181.00 yuan (1.61%) from the previous day and up 224.00 yuan (2.00%) from last week [7]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETFs are also provided [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, the Fed's total assets are $66371.78 billion, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49% [9]. - US Treasury bonds and dollar: The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 2.43%, the US dollar index is 100.16, and various US Treasury bond spreads and interest rate differentials are also provided [9][10]. - US economy: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80%, the unemployment rate is 4.30%, and other economic data such as employment, consumption, industry, and real estate are also provided [9][10]. - Central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, gold/foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB data are also provided [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [12].
贵金属日评:美国就业表现企稳或使贵金属价格承压-20251106
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:29
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The better - than - expected US employment data in October and the potential decrease in the Fed's December interest - rate cut probability, along with the reduction of the global major countries' debt due to a one - year Sino - US economic and trade agreement, may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and US - Venezuela, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks globally will support precious metal prices in the long - term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Information Market Data Summary - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 909.53 yuan/gram, with a change of 2.25 yuan compared to the previous day and - 6.15 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 59,552.00, and the open interest was 254,730.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,276.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 38.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 23.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 805,726.00, and the open interest was 244,274.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,990.40 dollars/ounce, with a change of 38.00 dollars compared to the previous day and 23.00 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 171,785.00, and the open interest was 321,089.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 0.72 dollars/ounce, with a change of 47.86 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was - 13,235.00, and the open interest was 102,717.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 19.70 dollars compared to the previous day and 17.10 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 47.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.17 dollars compared to the previous day and - 0.15 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The US government has been shut down for 36 days, the longest in history. Trump called for an end to the "filibuster" rule to restart the government. - The US "small non - farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations. The US ISM Services PMI in October rebounded above expectations, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,400 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 11,600 - 12,400 [1].
李槿:11/6黄金主空格局未改!今明两日防趋势爆发!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-06 01:41
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with a primary bearish trend despite recent rebounds. The market is influenced by a strong US dollar, rising expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and easing geopolitical risks, which collectively exert downward pressure on gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently consolidating below the 4000 level, with a main bearish trend remaining intact. The market is expected to test lower levels around 3956 and potentially 3930, with further declines possible down to 3886 if these levels are breached [1]. - The short-term resistance levels are identified at 3990-4000, with a failure to maintain above 4000 indicating limited bullish momentum. A stabilization above 4005 could lead to targets of 4015, 4030, and 4050 [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy includes looking for short positions near the 3990-4000 range and considering long positions near the previous low of 3956 [4]. - The trading performance from the previous day was noted as five wins and one loss, with a significant profit from a short position initiated around 3975-80 [3].
新产能投产却收入滑坡?冠农股份:番茄板块量价齐跌
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 10:06
Core Viewpoint - The tomato industry is experiencing a downturn, leading to a significant decline in revenue for Guannong Co., Ltd. in the first three quarters of the year, with a year-on-year decrease of over 20% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, Guannong Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.136 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.8% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 347 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.56% [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The overall decline in the tomato industry has resulted in decreased sales and prices for the company's products, leading to inventory impairment affecting performance [1] - Geopolitical risks have had a substantial impact on the tomato industry, manifesting as trade disruptions, order fulfillment issues, and increased logistics costs [1] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - The company is adjusting its production capacity release rhythm based on demand and is implementing measures such as optimizing product structure and controlling production and sales costs to mitigate industry cycle risks [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing sales efforts to ensure stable operations amid the industry's fluctuations [1] Group 4: Other Business Segments - Guannong Co., Ltd.'s main business includes tomatoes, cotton, and sugar beet, with significant contributions to performance coming from investments in Guotou Luokai and Kedu River Hydropower [2] - In the cotton sector, low initial inventory for the new cotton season in 2025 has provided some support for cotton prices, although demand remains weak, limiting the potential for sustained price increases [2]
能源化策略:俄罗斯原油出?环?减量,VLCC运费?企亦?撑油价
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil continues to be strong due to a decrease in Russian crude oil exports and rising VLCC freight rates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The chemical industry shows a demand for stopping the decline and stabilizing under the situation of crude oil fluctuations [2][3]. - The chemical products in the industry have different trends. Some products may stop falling and stabilize, while others continue to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. API data shows an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, but the reduction in refined oil inventories and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026, but the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, so the price fluctuates [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: Affected by the crude oil market, most chemical products are in a state of shock. Some products are facing cost and supply - demand pressures, while others have certain profit supports [3][4]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Asphalt**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price lacks support. The high - valued premium is starting to decline, and it is expected that the absolute price is over - valued and the monthly spread may decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil weakens, the fuel oil price is weak. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [9][10]. - **PX**: The supply has not decreased, and there is support for profits under the situation of strong supply and demand. It is expected to return to the cost and fundamental pricing logic in the short - term and maintain range consolidation [11]. - **PTA**: The market is waiting and watching, and there is a bottom - support for short - term profits. It is expected that the price will fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is running weakly. The pure benzene - naphtha price spread is at a low level in recent years, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Although there are some supply disturbances, the upward drive is still insufficient [11][12]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of inventory over - filling, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost - side has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation, and the follow - up rhythm depends on crude oil [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Under the resonance of cost and fundamentals, it is in a downward trend, and the medium - term supply surplus problem is difficult to solve. The price is under pressure in the short - term [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream factories are digesting previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The price follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [19][20]. - **Bottle Chip**: Affected by cost, the supply - demand drive is limited. The price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced [21]. - **Methanol**: After continuous decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is still value in going long at a low level [23][26]. - **Urea**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the information of the Nanjing Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference [24]. - **Plastic**: The OPEC+ production increase is cautious. Considering the fundamentals and profit situation, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [27][28]. - **PP**: There is still some support on the cost side. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [28][29]. - **PL**: The improvement in downstream transactions is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [29]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cost of integrated production in the northwest may support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost is moving up. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the trading strategy is to go short on rallies [31]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring**: The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [33][34][35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists various chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., specific content is not fully presented in the provided text. - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline. The energy index also shows a downward trend, with a daily decline of 1.07%, a 5 - day decline of 0.25%, a 1 - month decline of 5.01%, and a decline of 5.08% since the beginning of the year [274][276].
贵金属日评:美国银行间流动性偏紧或使贵金属价格承压-20251105
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:56
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term pressure on precious metal prices due to factors like tightened inter - bank liquidity in the US, increased CMBS default rate, and reduced probability of Fed rate cut in December; long - term support from geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 912.42 yuan/gram, down 4.52 from the previous day; trading volume was 64372, and open interest was 255692 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 11242 yuan/ten - grams, down 200 from the previous day; trading volume was 605454, and open interest was 4270780 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 3941.30, down 72.40 from the previous day; trading volume was 244620, and open interest was 327592 [1] - **International Gold**: London gold spot price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 4025.25 dollars/ounce, down 74.15 from the previous day; SPDR gold ETF holding was 1041.78, down 3.15 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 47.91, up 1.08 from the previous day; trading volume was 60177, and open interest was 19 [1] - **International Silver**: London silver spot price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 47.76 dollars/ounce, down 1.02 from the previous day; iShare silver ETF holding was 15167.64, down 22.18 [1] Important Information - The fate of Trump's tariffs depends on three Supreme Court justices appointed by him; the US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, leading to a potential record - breaking government shutdown [1] - US job openings in October dropped to the lowest since April 2021, and the office real estate crisis accelerated with the CMBS default rate exceeding 11.8% [1] Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions; for London gold, focus on support around 3580 - 3860 and resistance around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, support around 830 - 860 and resistance around 950 - 1000; for London silver, support around 39 - 42 and resistance around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, support around 9400 - 10000 and resistance around 11600 - 12400 [1]