报告导读： 中观景气延续分化， AI 产业链延续高景气，存储器继续涨价；服务消费需求 同比明显提升；工业金属价格大幅上涨；地产链和耐用品景气边际下滑。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 AI 产业延续高景气，服务消费同比偏强。 上周（ 12.01-12.07 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）全球 AI 基建持续带动电子产业链需求提升，高端存 储器 DRAM DDR4 价格延续上涨，国内 AI 模型和端侧 AI 手机陆续取得突破，后续仍需关注 AI 应用商业进展以及资本开支持续性； 2 ）服务消费和出行景 气边际有所回落，但 11 月以来景区出行、电影票房均明显好于 24 年同期，或表明传统内需偏弱下，居民更注重"吃喝玩乐"型的轻消费类型，多地实施秋假 也对服务消费景气 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 报告正文 4、生产高频跟踪：工业生产维持弱势，建筑业开工边际改善 图 36: 上周, 高炉开工率延续回落 全国高炉开工率 (247家) === 2020 2019 2021 2022 2023 -2024 · 2025 96 85 80 75 70 65 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 资料来源: Wind、申万宏源研究 工业生产中，高炉开工延续回落，钢材表观消费也有下滑。 11月23日至11月29日，高炉开工率环 比-1.1%至81.1%，同比-0.8pct至-0.5%；上周（11月30日至12月06日），钢材表观消费环比-2.68%、同 比-2.4pct至-1.2%。钢材社会库存延续回落，环比-2.9%。 图 37: 上周, 钢材周表观消费有所回落 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2021 2019 == 2020 = 2022 2023 2024 2025 1300 万吨 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 1 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - On December 10, A-shares rebounded with slight gains in the consumer sector, as the Consumer ETF (159928) rose by 0.25% with a total trading volume of 399 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) saw a net inflow of over 170 million yuan in the past 10 days, and as of December 9, its latest scale exceeded 20.5 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that consumer spending continues to recover, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreasing by 0.1% month-on-month and increasing by 0.7% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Real Estate and Alcohol Industry - Real estate stocks showed unusual upward movement in the afternoon, with a leading real estate company nearing a trading limit, influenced by recent mortgage-related news [6] - In the alcohol sector, the price of 25-year Flying Moutai bottles dropped to 1,500 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day. The wholesale reference price for the original box remained unchanged at 1,520 yuan [6] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The valuation of the Consumer ETF (159928) remains attractive, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 19.32, which is at the 2.84% percentile over the past decade, indicating it is cheaper than 97% of the historical time [8] - The white liquor sector is facing price pressure, with high inventory and weak demand challenges. However, the current adjustment in stock prices has reflected pessimistic expectations, suggesting long-term investment value [10] Group 5: Consumer Trends - There is a growing emphasis on expanding service consumption, which is expected to accelerate as China's GDP per capita exceeds 13,000 USD. This shift indicates significant growth potential in sectors like culture, leisure, and health [11] - Recent data shows positive trends in consumer spending, with notable increases in luxury goods sales and hotel industry performance, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wanlian Securities indicates that domestic service consumption in China has rebounded to 46% of total household consumption in 2024, nearing a structural critical point of 50%, suggesting a rapid growth phase for the industry, which is expected to be a key driver for domestic demand and consumption [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the service consumption sector can be focused on two key dimensions: 1) High replicability, emphasizing business models that can achieve rapid replication through standardized processes and strong supply chains; 2) High experience creation capability, targeting services that provide unique experiences, emotional resonance, or cultural identity [2] Group 2: Overview of Service Consumption - Modern service consumption is transitioning from "functional satisfaction" to "experience co-creation" and "emotional healing," where consumers pay for personalized, memorable experiences that create deep and lasting memories. Compared to traditional goods consumption, service consumption shows significant growth elasticity, stable profitability, and superior operational efficiency [3][4] Group 3: Development Trends - Service consumption in China is approaching a structural critical point for accelerated penetration in consumption share. The demand side is increasingly segmented, focusing on the "young and elderly" demographics. The supply side is characterized by a diversified service platform ecosystem that incubates supply and influences decision-making [4] Group 4: Classification of Service Consumption - The classification framework for service consumption is based on two dimensions: 1) Experience creation capability, which relates to psychological satisfaction and emotional resonance; 2) Replicability, which assesses the standardization of service processes and the potential for cross-regional and cross-demographic expansion. Three main tracks are identified: 1) Scale efficiency type (low experience + high replicability); 2) Artisan economy type (high experience + low replicability); 3) Brand premium type (high experience + high replicability) [5] Group 5: Recommendations - Recommendations include: 1) Chain restaurants/tea drinks, focusing on leading brands with supply chain advantages; 2) Sports, leveraging the economic impact of events and related services; 3) Performing arts, targeting operators with scarce IP value; 4) Service platforms, which are crucial for supply-demand matching and brand incubation [6]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 "下半年以来，消费增长势头回落、投资需求陷入收缩区间，导致中国经济下行压力显著加大，呈现 出'前高后低'的走势。这意味着，扩大内需迫在眉睫。"中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副院长刘 晓光表示。 本次会议提出，要持续"扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量"，"扩大内需"依然被排在了各项工 作的第一位，新增表述"优化供给"。同时提出，"要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，"持续扩大内 需""坚持内需主导"。 事实上，过去三年以来，中央政治局会议对"扩大国内需求"的期待与日俱增。 在国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦看来，当前，需求不足已经成了中国经济增长的主要痛点。 政策抓手上，此次会议首次提出"坚持内需主导"，也首次提出"优化供给"，意在增强国内大循环的内生 动力和可靠性。 "扩大内需不只是需求侧的改革，还需要新的消费产品和新的消费场景供给，推动新质生产力的发展成 果在市场中变现，对扩大消费形成引领性的作用。"远东资信研究院副院长张林对《华夏时报》记者表 示。 精准发力内需痛点 扩大内需再次被放到重要位置上！ 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议分析 ...

[Table_Title] 消费结构变迁，体验塑造价值 [Table_ReportType] ——服务消费专题系列一[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] ⚫ 2024 年国内服务消费在居民消费中的占比已恢复至 46%，接近 50% 的结构性临界点，行业预计将迈入快速增长阶段，成为拉动内需、 提振消费的关键引擎。相较商品消费，服务消费因提供个性化互 动与独特体验而具备更高的成长弹性与用户黏性，投资空间广阔。 把握服务消费领域的投资机会，可以围绕两大关键维度布局：一 是沿高可复制性主线，把握规模扩张与供应链效率优势，聚焦能 够通过标准化流程与强大供应链实现快速复制的商业模式；二是 沿高体验塑造能力主线，把握高溢价与高成长潜力，布局能够为 用户提供独特体验、情感共鸣或文化认同的服务。建议关注的重 点赛道包括：（1）连锁餐饮/茶饮：连锁化加速推进，拥有品牌 护城河与供应链优势的连锁龙头将更具发展空间，建议关注具备 规模效应且业绩弹性突出的连锁餐饮与新茶饮企业；（2）体育： 赛事经济带动效应显著，围绕赛事衍生出的旅游、餐饮、IP 产品 等消费潜力十足，建议关注赛事运营与相 ...

Group 1: Tourism Industry - The overall performance of the tourism industry is stable but shows signs of divergence, with growth expected to continue slowing down [1][2] - Domestic travel is experiencing stable growth in visitor numbers, but consumer spending power remains insufficient; cross-border travel is benefiting from visa-free policies and improved capacity [2] - The upcoming long holiday during the Spring Festival in 2026 and the gradual implementation of spring and autumn holidays are expected to boost travel enthusiasm [2] Group 2: Hotel Industry - The hotel industry continues to face pressure, with supply-side expansion leading to increased market competition [3] - Demand remains unfulfilled, and corporate cost control measures are in place, resulting in an average market sentiment [3] - Profit growth for hotel companies is primarily driven by cost reduction and quality improvement, with a recovery in industry sentiment needed for further profit release [3] Group 3: Restaurant Industry - The restaurant market is experiencing a slowdown in growth due to various factors affecting consumer spending [4] - Competition is shifting from price wars to more rational approaches, with average spending per customer stabilizing [4] - Companies need to focus on improving their operational efficiency to navigate the current market conditions [4] Group 4: Duty-Free Industry - The duty-free sector is showing marginal improvements in industry sentiment, with sales growth turning positive in September 2025 [5] - The upcoming closure of Hainan Island is expected to enhance the advantages of duty-free operators, benefiting from free trade port policies [5] - The expansion of visa-free policies and the recovery of international flight capacity are driving growth in international customer traffic [5] Group 5: Human Resources Industry - The human resources industry is maintaining growth, driven by flexible employment and outsourcing [6] - Despite a lack of confidence in the recruitment market, key companies are performing well in outsourcing and flexible employment sectors [6] - Future revenue growth will depend on the operational efficiency of companies [6] Group 6: Exhibition Industry - The exhibition sector is experiencing performance divergence, with domestic exhibitions benefiting from an improving business environment [7] - Companies should focus on stable growth in internal business and actively engage in emerging industries [7] - International exhibitions face challenges due to geopolitical instability, requiring careful monitoring [7]

Group 1 - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the social service sector, highlighting the recovery of service consumption as a new engine for expanding domestic demand, supported by continuous policy benefits [2][3][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing the holiday system to stimulate travel demand, with the upcoming long Spring Festival holiday expected to enhance travel willingness and extend travel distances [37][38] Group 2 - In the tourism sector, domestic travel continues to grow, with 888 million domestic trips taken during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year increase, although per capita spending remains under pressure [23][27] - The cross-border travel market is heating up due to visa-free policies and improved flight capacity, with 1.78 billion inbound and outbound travelers recorded in Q3 2025, a 12.9% year-on-year increase [27][29] - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear long-term growth logic and project reserves, such as Changbai Mountain, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Co., while also highlighting the potential of travel agencies like Lingnan Holdings and Zhongxin Tourism [40] Group 3 - The hotel industry is currently under pressure, with demand yet to be fully released, and companies are focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements to sustain profit growth [5][14] - The restaurant sector is experiencing a slowdown in market growth, with competition becoming more rational, leading to a stabilization in average spending per customer [5][17] - The duty-free industry shows signs of marginal recovery, with sales in Hainan's offshore duty-free market turning positive year-on-year, benefiting from the upcoming closure of Hainan Island and the advantages of duty-free licenses [5][19] Group 4 - The human resources service industry continues to grow, driven by flexible employment and outsourcing, although overall recruitment confidence remains low [5][23] - The exhibition industry is expected to benefit from a warming business environment, while international exhibitions need to be monitored due to geopolitical changes [5][23]

新华社北京12月8日电（记者刘开雄）国家税务总局12月8日发布的最新税收大数据显示，今年以来，在 国家一系列提振消费政策的支持以及消费新场景、新模式带动下，我国服务消费亮点不少。 "今年以来，文化、旅游新业态新场景不断涌现，消费活力释放。"国家税务总局总经济师、新闻发言人 荣海楼在当日举行的例行新闻发布会上说。 从税收发票数据看，今年前11个月，文艺创作与表演、电影放映销售收入同比分别增长15.6%和 19.1%，并与旅游产业融合，带动沉浸式、场景式旅游消费蓬勃发展。同期的旅行社及相关服务、名胜 风景区、休闲观光活动销售收入同比分别增长10.8%、29.4%和16.6%。 从税收发票数据看，前11个月，老年人及残疾人养护、社会看护与帮助、疗养院服务消费同比分别增长 33.6%、9.6%和14.6%。而在年轻消费群体中，以游戏动漫等数字文化服务为代表的情绪价值、社交属 性消费颇受年轻人青睐，展现出一定消费潜力。前11个月，与其相关的数字文化服务销售收入同比增长 16.5%。 "税务部门将持续落实好支持消费的税费政策，不断优化办税缴费服务举措，促进以政策红利和服务便 利更好地激发内需潜力、提升消费活力。"荣海楼说 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by more than 5% over the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of focusing on segments with marginal improvements and stable growth within the consumer sector, particularly in the home appliance and beauty industries [3][4]. - The tourism sector is showing potential for recovery, with leading companies like Ctrip and Huazhu Hotels responding quickly to changing consumer demands [3]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a recommendation to monitor leading brands that adapt swiftly to market dynamics [3]. - The liquor industry is facing challenges, with a notable decline in net profits for many companies in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, but leading firms are expected to gain market share [4][20]. - The snack segment is showing a divergence in performance, with certain products like konjac continuing to thrive, while dairy companies are entering a recovery phase [4][25]. Summary by Sections Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing a downturn, with air conditioning production down 27.9% year-on-year in October 2025, and sales down 20.1% [27]. - Central air conditioning sales reached 11.2 billion yuan in October 2025, facing downward pressure [27]. - Refrigerator production decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, while washing machine production saw a slight decline of 0.2% [27]. Social Services - The report emphasizes the need to focus on leading companies that can adapt to changing consumer demands in the social services sector, particularly in tourism and beauty [3][4]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The report notes a significant decline in net profits for many liquor companies in Q3 2025, with a focus on high-end and mid-range liquor brands expected to perform better [4][20]. - The average price of pork in the wholesale market increased by 0.2% to 17.68 yuan per kilogram as of December 5, 2025 [25]. Food and Beverage - General - The snack segment is experiencing a mixed performance, with konjac products showing strong growth potential [4][25]. - Dairy companies are expected to enter a recovery phase as supply and demand dynamics improve [4][25]. Cultural Communication - The report suggests that media companies should focus on segments related to spiritual needs and consumer sentiment to capture opportunities [4][17].