广发期货EDP 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月27日 (20019556) 数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证・在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考， 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 【每日精选观点】 品种 合约 观点 层荡偏强 母 ZN2603 震荡偏强 中醇 MA2605 幅弱调整 铁矿石 12605 棕榈洲 P2605 短线偏强 黄金 偏强震荡 AU2604 【全品种日评】 板块 品种 主力合约 点评 操作建议 A股放量伴随波动率上升,市场交易分歧较大,本 IF2603 周面临美联储议息时间节点,宏观影响不确定性高 IH2603 股指 A股波幅上升,风格或有所轮换 。建议做好组合风险控制,适时降低多头仓位,尝 IC2603 试双买做多波动率。 IM2603 供需和风险偏好两大利空有所缓解促进超长债回 暖,不过债市缺乏新的主线驱动,导致短期债市可 能仍 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Platinum follows the correction of gold and silver, but the trend has not reversed; palladium will continue its trend after finding a bottom [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 744.70 with an 8.57% increase; gold futures 2606 closed at 534.80 with a 7.40% increase. New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2575.60 with a -7.13% change, and London spot platinum (previous day) was 2589.83 with a -4.23% change. New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1992.50 with a -2.74% change, and London spot palladium (previous day) was 1949.00 with a -3.66% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 38,811 kg, an increase of 12,202 kg from the previous day, and the position was 35,997 kg, an increase of 1,175 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 90,858 kg, an increase of 31,469 kg, and the position was 104,844 kg, an increase of 369 kg. Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 18,368 kg, an increase of 6,959 kg, and the position was 13,619 kg, a decrease of 46 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 36,599 kg, an increase of 15,384 kg, and the position was 55,887 kg, a decrease of 523 kg [1]. - **ETF Position Data**: Platinum ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 3,309,000, an increase of 39,205; palladium ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 1,205,933, an increase of 12,831 [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Guangzhou platinum inventory was 1 kg; NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 665,888 with no change. Guangzhou palladium inventory was -; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 216,266 with no change [1]. - **Spread Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was -11.45, a decrease of 7.05 from the previous day; Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was -1.60, a decrease of 6.00. The cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 9.10, an increase of 0.71. The spread between Guangzhou platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 89.49, an increase of 87.78. The spread between RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was -54.80, a decrease of 20.85. The spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract and 2610 contract was -3.20, a decrease of 0.15. The cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.61, an increase of 0.44. The spread between Guangzhou palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 42, an increase of 55.72 [1]. - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 97.04, a -0.47% change; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 6.96 with no change; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.95 with no change; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.87, a -0.11% change [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Trump will raise the reciprocal tariff rate on South Korea from 15% to 25 due to the South Korean Congress not approving the bilateral trade agreement [4]. - Trump will give a speech on the US economy on Tuesday [4]. - US media reported that Trump believes Iran hopes to reach an agreement [4]. - OPEC+ representatives said that the policy of halting production increases may be maintained in March [4]. - The EU and India will discuss the latter's participation in the EU's defense initiative [4]. - A prediction platform shows that the probability of a US government shutdown before the end of January is about 80% [4]. - There is no clear sign in the Bank of Japan's account data that it intervened in the foreign exchange market last Friday [4]. - The Central Bank of Tanzania will sell part of its gold reserves to finance infrastructure projects [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity is 1; palladium trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3].

2026 年 1 月 27 日 燃料油：夜盘低开，高波动态势延续 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫 价差跌入年内低点 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2602 | 元/吨 | 2. 776 | 2. 32% | | 2,787 | 6. 09% | | | | FU2603 | 元/吨 | 2. 791 | 6.09% | | 2.735 | 4.67% | | | | LU2602 | 元/吨 | 3. 130 | 0. 00% | | 3.130 | 0. 48% | | | | LU2603 | 元/吨 | 3. 212 | 0. 48% | | 3.177 | 2. 75% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 期货 | FU2602 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The C3 raw material for PP shows strong performance, but the profit repair is currently limited. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep - loss PDH profits [1][2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 was 6737, with a daily increase of 1.22%. The trading volume was 609,818, and the position increased by 22,199 [1] - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 147 (compared to - 176 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 41 (compared to - 32 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,530 yuan/ton, 6,590 yuan/ton, and 6,630 yuan/ton respectively, all higher than the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market rebounded again. The upstream pre - sale pressure was temporarily not large, and the mid - stream continued to place orders. The basis weakened, and the trading atmosphere improved, mainly mid - stream transactions [1] - The downstream profit has been repaired with the terminal price increase. The start - up and orders increased last week, but the end - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, and the sustainability of buying is questionable, with high warehouse receipts [1] - The PP US - dollar market price remained stable. Overseas suppliers had low enthusiasm for offering to China. Due to the strengthening of the exchange rate and the rise of the domestic market, the downstream continued to make rigid purchases, and the trading was difficult to improve [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices are strong. The internal valuation of olefins is differentiated, and the valuation of PE in terms of internal - external and upstream profit is higher than that of PP [2] - **Supply Side**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game of existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand Side**: The follow - up of new downstream orders weakened, and downstream factories' purchases remained cautious, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Strength - The trend strength of PP is - 1 [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a Hotspot Tracking released on January 26, 2026, by the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Daily Fluctuations and Capital Changes - The report shows daily price changes, capital flow, and trading volume changes for various futures products, including ethylene glycol, fuel oil, butadiene rubber, crude oil, LPG, and many others [5][8][10] Group 3: Capital Flow Ranking - The top five futures products with the highest daily capital inflow are ethylene glycol, fuel oil, butadiene rubber, crude oil, and LPG [12] - The top five futures products with the highest daily capital outflow are international copper, cotton yarn, lithium carbonate, and alumina [12] Group 4: Position Value Proportion - The report presents the position value proportion of various futures products, such as 9% for Shanghai silver, 10% for CSI 300 futures, 13% for Shanghai gold, and 12% for CSI 500 futures [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall sentiment is cautiously bullish, suggesting waiting for buying opportunities after a pullback [5] Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of aromatics has slowed, and there is a need to guard against the risk of a pullback. Although the supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved and port inventories have started to decline from a high level, due to the high price increase of styrene and pure benzene and subsequent partial device restarts, along with high pure benzene inventories, caution is advised [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of the week ending January 22, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 349,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons or 1.72%. The plant capacity utilization rate was 69.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.23%. Domestic styrene plants were generally stable, but overall losses exceeded increments, leading to a decline in production [1] - As of the week ending January 22, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.71%, a week - on - week increase of 4.66%. In the off - season of downstream demand, merchants were cautious about chasing prices, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor [1] - The PS capacity utilization rate was 57.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. Although some devices resumed or restarted, others reduced production lines. The industry supply was temporarily stable, but market shipments were average, and inventories started to rise [1] - The ABS capacity utilization rate was 66.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 3%. Manufacturers' supply was still tight, and they mainly controlled shipments. After the holiday, market inquiries and transactions increased, and prices rebounded. The UPR capacity utilization rate was 38%, a week - on - week decrease of 1%, and the butadiene - styrene rubber operation rate was 82.92%, remaining stable week - on - week [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - A large - scale winter storm has hit many parts of the United States, with 24 states and Washington, D.C. declaring a state of emergency, and 7 deaths reported due to the cold weather [3] - The US "Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East, and Iran has warned the US that it will attack US aircraft carriers if subjected to military strikes [3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene and styrene fluctuated within the day, and their upward momentum slowed. The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and port inventories have started to decline from a high level [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the PTA futures market saw a significant increase. The TA2605 contract closed at 5,452 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton or 8.57%. The rise was due to the capital market's optimism about the chemical industry, and positive fund inflows in PX and PTA supported by their fundamentals [2]. - The current rally in PTA and PX during the off - season of the polyester industry is an early reaction to the expected strong supply - demand situation of PX and PTA in the first half of next year. Although PTA is expected to accumulate inventory before the Spring Festival, the pressure is lower than in previous years. Attention should be paid to unexpected shutdowns [2]. - Currently, the PXN spread is oscillating strongly, and PTA processing fees have significantly recovered. The upstream of the industrial chain has a relatively high valuation, and the market's expected pricing is already reflected. Cost - side attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy based on cost, and be cautious when chasing high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - PTA futures prices rose significantly this week. The TA2605 contract closed at 5,452 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton or 8.57%. Terminal demand weakened at the end of the year, loom operating rates declined steadily, some polyester enterprises started maintenance, but PTA factories also controlled production, and social inventory continued to decline [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA futures (continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,400.00 | 5,018.00 | 382.00 | 7.61% | Daily | | PTA production | 10,000 tons | 139.28 | 145.25 | - 5.97 | - 4.11% | Weekly | | Polyester chip operating rate | % | 85.52 | 89.25 | - 3.73 | - 4.18% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate | % | 51.20 | 54.59 | - 3.39 | - 6.21% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 357 | 339 | 18.00 | 5.31% | Daily | | PTA cash - flow cost | yuan/ton | 5,120 | 4,958 | 162.00 | 3.27% | Daily | [4] Market and Supply - Demand Analysis - **PX Market**: The report includes PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX supply situation analysis, including prices, production, imports, operating rates, and inventory [6][10][15]. - **PTA Market**: It covers PTA futures closing prices, East China mainstream prices, PTA supply analysis (production, operating rate, social inventory), consumption analysis (exports, downstream product production and operating rates), and cost - profit analysis [18][20][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position short - term long strategy at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand. The aluminum price remains high due to macro - expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to trade with a light - position short - term long strategy at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of sufficient supply and weak demand. Due to cost support, the cast aluminum price remains in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to trade with a light - position short - term long strategy at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,215.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan; the main contract position is 322,085.00 hands, down 18,490.00 hands. The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contract is - 155.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 3,173.50 US dollars/ton, up 41.00 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory is 507,275.00 tons, down 2000.00 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.63, down 0.12 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,732.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan; the main contract position is 488,440.00 hands, down 6325.00 hands. The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contract is - 138.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 23,010.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; the main contract position is 11,389.00 hands, down 5206.00 hands. The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contract is - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 24,030.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 24,130.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 180.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 3.75 US dollars/ton, up 15.23 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan. The basis of alumina is - 177.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 24,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 990.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina import volume is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons; the alumina export volume is 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons. The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,650.00 yuan/ton, up 250.00 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 18,150.00 yuan/ton, up 250.00 yuan. The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments in China is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the primary aluminum export volume is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons. The electrolytic aluminum total production capacity is 4,536.20 million tons, up 12.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 71.50 million tons, up 0.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, down 3.00 million tons. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 68.40 million tons, down 1.60 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 23.56%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.88%, up 0.06%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money option is 23.97%, up 0.0385%. The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.72, up 0.0027 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the US, the January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value of 51.8; the services PMI preliminary value is flat at 52.5, and the composite PMI preliminary value rises slightly to 52.8, all slightly lower than expected [2]. - In the Eurozone, the January Manufacturing PMI preliminary value rebounds slightly to 49.4, still in the contraction range; the services PMI preliminary value drops to 51.9, lower than expected. In Germany, both the manufacturing and services PMIs rebound more than expected. In France, the manufacturing PMI rises to a nearly four - year high of 51, but the services PMI slows sharply to 47.9 [2]. - The National Market Operation and Consumption Promotion Work Conference emphasizes promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, implementing the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and promoting large - scale consumption such as automobiles and home furnishings. It also focuses on cultivating new growth points in service consumption and new types of consumption [2]. - Jiangsu Province will continue to promote large - scale equipment updates and optimize the implementation of the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones in 2026, with specific subsidy standards for different types of products [2]. - In 2026, the automobile replacement subsidy in Chongqing is open for application, with the first - batch of funds of 185 million yuan. Consumers can get subsidies according to 8% or 6% of the new - car sales price [2]. - In Beijing, the number of new - energy vehicles exceeds 1.3 million, and the proportion of new - energy and "National V - standard" or above vehicles exceeds 80%. In 2025, Beijing implemented policies to scrap and update old trucks and large - and medium - sized buses, and made progress in the new - energy vehicle field [2].

【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需平淡，价格震荡 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2026-01-26 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需平淡，价格震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.07万吨，与15日持平。行业开工率为71.62%，与15日持平；行业产能利用率为75.57%，与15日持平。 | | | | 本周无产线放水或者点火，日产量维持平稳。下周暂无产线存在点火或者冷修预期，短期供给持稳。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，但随着时间的推移，需求端受季节性因素影响，多逐步进入收尾阶段，且对节后需求观望心态浓厚，节前囤货积极性不高，对原 片产销支撑偏弱。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存小幅累库，企业总库存5321.6万重箱，环比+20.3万重箱，环比+0.38% ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 铂：上涨势头猛烈 钯：警惕补涨动能 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 685. 90 | | 8. 21% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 681. 50 | | 9.14% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2773. 20 | | 5.56% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2704. 30 | | 2. 70% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 497. 95 | | 2. 94% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货锂金 | 464. 00 | | 6.18% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 2, 048. 70 | | 8. 11% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 2.022.94 | | 6. 25% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日 ...